The  Kearney  Report  

Boulder County Real Estate 2014 Year in Review

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 2014  Market  Summary  2014  started  out  very  strong  and  continued  in  a  healthy  manner  throughout  the  year.  It  was  definitely  a  sellers  market.  Throughout  the  spring,  the  combination  of  low  inventory  and  high  demand  made  it  difficult  and  frustrating  to  be  a  buyer.  Multiple  offers  were  very  common  and  in  many  situations,  full  price  wasn’t  enough  to  win  the  negotiation.  Throughout  the  spring,  home  values  increased.    By  mid  June,  the  pressure  of  the  market  had  eased  a  bit.  All  of  the  fundamentals  in  the  market  were  still  in  place  but  just  less  intense.  More  houses  were  coming  on  the  market  and  that  supply  brought  the  market  back  closer  to  equilibrium.  The  fall  continued  in  a  similar  fashion  with  even  fewer  houses  coming  on  the  market.  In  2014,  it  took  on  average  38  days  to  find  a  buyer  and  accept  an  offer.  This  is  a  full  week  quicker  than  2013  and  a  full  49  days  quicker  than  2010.  Low  inventory  and  good  buyer  demand  were  the  trends  for  2014.      The  Causes  and  Effects  of  Price  Appreciation  in  Boulder  County    Using  a  simple  measure,  median  prices  of  homes  and  condos  in  Boulder  County  increased  by  5.5%  this  year.  Last  year  they  were  up  6%  using  the  same  math.  FHFA  the  national  agency  which  tracks  home  sales  for  the  Federal  Government  reported  that  the  home  values  in  Boulder  County  increased  in  value  by  8.35%  for  the  one  year  period  ending  on  September  30th  (see  this  represented  graphically  on  page  4  of  this  report).  Homes  have  appreciated  over  the  past  three  years,  which  has  erased  the  affects  of  the  economic  downturn.  What  I’d  like  to  touch  on  are  the  causes  of  the  appreciation  locally  and  the  effects  of  the  appreciation  we  are  seeing  in  the  market.    Boulder  County  didn’t  go  through  the  boom  and  bust  cycle  between  2006  and  2011  that  much  of  the  country  experienced,  so  our  recent  appreciation  can’t  be  explained  by  saying  it  is  a  bounce.  A  return  to  historical  value.  Home  prices  are  now  17%  above  where  they  were  5  years  ago.  Over  the  past  three  years  I  point  to  three  major  factors  that  contributed  to  our  appreciation;  low  supply  of  homes  on  the  market,  strong  buyer  demand  caused  by  a  strong  local  economy,  low  interest  rates.      The  supply  of  homes  on  the  market  comes  from  two  main  sources,  resales  and  new  construction  (note  we  don’t  have,  nor  have  we  had  a  large  supply  of  foreclosure  homes,  this  has  been  another  source  in  other  areas).  Both  sources  of  supply  have  been  constricted  since  2008.  Existing  homeowners  have  increasingly  been  sitting  out  of  the  market.  Many  feel  that  while  it  would  be  easy  to  sell  their  home  it  would  be  difficult  to  find  an  acceptable  replacement.  If  you  have  enough  people  thinking  along  these  lines  it  becomes  a  self-­‐fulfilling  prophecy.    The  economic  downturn  was  difficult  on  home  builders  and  their  banks  forced  them  to  sell  existing  supply  and  to  stop  building  spec  homes.  The  supply  of  new  homes  was  a  trickle  in  2009  and  2010.  Builders  are  now  up  and  running  but  they  can’t  keep  up  with  buyer  demand.  They  are  also  constricted  by  a  lack  of  tradesman  due  to  so  much  commercial  construction.    The  US  Census  Bureau  estimates  that  Boulder  County  grew  by  5.3%  between  2010  and  2013.  This  means  that  15,000  new  people  moved  to  our  county.  Given  that  there  are  on  average  2.42  people  in  a  household  in  Boulder  County  this  means  that  there  are  over  6,000  new  households  in  Boulder  County  over  the  past  four  years  alone.  People  are  moving  here  because  of  our  robust  economy  and  available  jobs.  This  equation  has  led  to  the  construction  of  many  new  apartment  buildings,  rising  rents  and  a  very  tight  real  estate  market  with  low  inventory  and  rising  prices.    The  last  factor  causing  appreciation  is  low  interest  rates.  Affordability  has  two  multipliers;  price  and  cost  of  money.  If  one  stays  low  while  the  other  rises,  affordability  stays  reasonable.  If  both  rise,  demand  falls.  For  the  past  six  years  interest  rates  have  been  very  low  so  as  prices  have  risen  the  out  of  pocket  expense  is  still  reasonable.    From  the  buyer’s  perspective,  if  they  need  to  be  aggressive  on  price  in  order  to  get  a  home,  they  can  do  it  because  they  can  still  easily  afford  the  payment.    Sellers  have  been  able  to  ask  more  for  their  homes  and  buyers  have  had  the  ability  to  afford  the  payment  and  the  will  to  beat  out  their  competition.      As  you  browse  through  the  rest  of  the  report  you  will  find,  for  comparison  purposes,  a  number  of  market  measures  displayed  for  each  of  the  submarkets  in  our  area.  Enjoy  the  report.      

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Boulder County Overview – Sales and Home Values

 

                   

!"!!!!

!1,000!!

!2,000!!

!3,000!!

!4,000!!

!5,000!!

!6,000!!

!7,000!!

1997! 1998! 1999! 2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014!

Boulder County - Total Sales All Residential Categories

0"

50000"

100000"

150000"

200000"

250000"

300000"

350000"

1997" 1998" 1999" 2000" 2001" 2002" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"

Boulder County All Residential Properties Median Prices

The  top  graph  shows  sales  in  Boulder  County  since  1997.  It’s  interesting  to  see  that  sales  in  1998  were  higher  than  they  are  now.  This  illustrates  that  either  the  market  has  changed  or  that  we  haven’t  fully  recovered  from  the  economic  downturn  in  2009  –  2011.  I  suspect  that  the  market  behaviors  have  shifted.  We  just  have  seen  a  steady  downward  shift  in  the  number  of  homes  listed  per  year.    More  and  more  homeowners  have  become  increasingly  happy  with  their  current  home.  Baby  Boomers  are  also  staying  in  their  homes  longer  than  past  generations.      The  lower  graph  shows  median  prices  in  Boulder  County  over  time.  Prices  have  been  steadily  increasing  over  time.  Boulder  County  real  estate  has  been  a  very  good  investment  indeed.  

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 Boulder County Price Appreciation

 

 

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2nd Qtr.

2009

3rd Qtr.

2009

4th Qtr.

2009

1st Qtr.

2010

2nd Qtr.

2010

3rd Qtr.

2010

4th Qtr.

2010

1st Qtr. 2011

2nd Qtr. 2011

3rd Qtr. 2011

4th Qtr. 2011

1st Qtr.

2012

2nd Qtr.

2012

3rd Qtr.

2012

4th Qtr.

2012

1st Qtr.

2013

2nd Qtr.

2013

3rd Qtr.

2013

4th Qtr.

2013

1st Qtr.

2014

2nd Qtr.

2014

3rd Qtr.

2014

One Year Appreciation Source'FHFA.gov'

Boulder County United States

-15 -10

-5 0 5

10 15 20 25 30

Grand Jct.

Orlando

Chicago

Kansas C

ity

Minneapolis

Om

aha

Seattle

Salt Lake City

Pittsburgh

Detroit

Dallas

Greeley

Miam

i

Phoenix

Las Vegas

Ft. Collins

Boulder

Los Angeles

Denver

San Diego

Bend, O

R

San Francisco

-13.6

-3.73 -3.45 -0.13

5.1 5.32 9.94 10.77 10.9

13.8 15.05 15.64 16.18 16.33 16.33 16.63 17.27 20.5 20.76 22.08 22.94

28.34

Cum

ulat

ive

Ret

urn

Axis Title

5 Year Cumulative Appreciation 3rd Quarter Data from FHFA

The  graphs  on  this  page  use  FHFA.gov  data  to  show  how  prices  in  Boulder  County  compare  to  other  areas.  The  graph  above  shows  the  last  five  years  of  price  appreciation  in  Boulder  County  and  the  US  average  reported  on  a  quarterly  basis.    The  lower  graph  shows  the  cumulative  price  appreciation  of  22  select  markets  over  the  last  five  years.  Boulder  is  indicated  in  red.  Over  the  past  five  years  the  average  home  in  Boulder  has  gained  17.27%  in  value.    The  returns  are  ranked  from  lowest  to  highest  from  left  to  right.    Homes  in  San  Francisco  have  appreciated  by  28%  during  the  last  five  years.  

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 Comparison of Median Prices Across Communities

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Med

ian

Sal

es P

rice

Comparison*of*Median*Prices*Single*Family*Residen7al*

Boulder

Louisville

Lafayette

Longmont

County

Superior

Erie

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Med

ian'Price'

'

Comparison'of'Condominium'Prices'in'Boulder'County'

Boulder

Louisville

Lafayette

Longmont

County

Back  in  1997  prices  throughout  the  county  had  a  much  smaller  disparity.  The  median  price  for  a  home  in  Boulder  was  just  20%  above  the  county  average.  In  the  ensuing  years  the  gap  has  increased  considerably.  Now  the  median  price  of  a  home  in  Boulder  is  nearly  $700,000  while  the  county  median  is  just  over  $400,000.    The  top  graph  shows  the  prices  of  single  family  homes  in  each  of  the  principle  communities  in  Boulder  County.  After  six  years  of  treading  water,  appreciation  kicked  in  throughout  the  county  in  2012.    The  lower  graph  shows  the  prices  for  attached  dwellings  in  Boulder,  Louisville,  Lafayette,  Longmont  and  Boulder  County.  There  isn’t  as  much  difference  in  condos  as  there  is  in  single  family  homes.  One  reason  for  this  is  that  the  condos  in  Boulder  tend  to  be  smaller  than  those  further  east.  

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Boulder County Sales by Month and Price Range

 

   

     

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

January March May July September November

Boulder County Sales by Month Single'Family'and'Condos'

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 Year Change0 - $250,000 1703 1571 1569 1796 1786 1567 -12%$250,000 - $500,000 1614 1684 1610 2123 2364 2321 -2%$500,000 - $750,000 431 515 477 669 871 911 5%$750,000 - $1 Million 132 137 144 232 296 300 1%$1 million - $1.25 million 45 61 54 83 105 114 9%$1.25 million - $1.5 million 21 28 34 50 58 78 34%> $1.5 million 49 45 53 55 91 99 9%

The  top  chart  shows  the  flow  of  real  estate  closings  by  month  throughout  the  year.  Boulder  County  has  a  consistent  pattern  that  resembles  a  bell  curve.  There  are  sales  throughout  the  year,  but  the  busiest  time  in  the  market  is  the  spring.  The  results  shown  here  are  closings.  The  actual  buying  decision  was  made  at  least  thirty  days  prior  to  the  closing.  This  year  May  and  June  had  the  most  activity  in  terms  of  contracts  written.    The  table  shows  five  years  of  data  of  sales  by  price  range.  Understandably,  most  of  the  sales  in  the  county  close  with  a  price  of  $500,000  or  below.  The  “1  Year  Change”  column  shows  the  difference  in  sales  in  each  price  range  between  2013  and  2014.  The  lower  price  ranges  lost  percentage  share  and  the  largest  gain  was  seen  in  the  $1.25  -­‐  $1.5  Million  category  that  showed  a  34%  rise.  As  prices  rise  throughout  the  county,  sales  below  $250,000  will  become  less  common  than  they  are  now.  

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Boulder County Real Estate Inventory

   

       

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Homes on the Market Boulder County Residential

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Boulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont Boulder County

Erie Mountains

Mon

ths'

Absorption Rate by Area Single Family Residential

12/31/05

12/31/06

12/31/07

12/31/08

12/31/09

12/31/10

12/31/11

12/31/12

12/31/13

12/31/14

The  lack  of  inventory  of  homes  on  the  market  has  been  detrimental.    Like  a  car  that  can’t  get  enough  gas,  willing  buyers  were  turned  away  by  the  lack  of  houses  on  the  market.    The  top  graph  shows  the  number  of  homes  on  the  market  at  the  end  of  each  month  over  the  past  five  years.  2014  is  represented  by  the  red  bars.  We  have  seen  a  noticeable  drop  in  available  inventory  over  the  past  five  years.  On  one  hand  this  lack  of  supply  has  helped  cause  price  appreciation.  On  the  other  hand  it  has  led  to  decreased  overall  sales.    The  lower  chart  illustrates  the  lack  of  inventory  in  a  different  way.  The  bars  indicate  how  many  months  it  would  take  to  sell  all  of  the  active  inventory  on  the  market  at  the  end  of  a  given  year.  With  low  inventory  and  steady  sales  this  number  is  very  low.  For  example  it  would  take  just    1.5  months  to  sell  all  of  the  listings  in  the  City  of  Boulder.    It  is  a  sellers  market!  

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Boulder County Luxury Homes

 

   0"

50"

100"

150"

200"

250"

300"

2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"

122"

159"

185"

215"

154"

117"133"

141"

189"

247"

295"

Million Dollar Properties Sold in Boulder County

Average Negotiation off of last list priceBoulder County

All Properties Luxury Properties2005 2.44% 5.32%2006 2.78% 5.99%2007 3.15% 6.18%2008 3.20% 5.51%2009 3.81% 6.77%2010 4.17% 8.18%2011 4.10% 7.67%2012 3.35% 7.12%2013 2.37% 5.61%2014 1.89% 4.49%

The  luxury  market  (sales  over  $1  million)  in  Boulder  County  was  very  strong  this  year.    There  were  295  sales,  which  was  up  19%  from  last  year  and  a  new  record.  The  chart  to  the  left  breaks  the  luxury  category  into  smaller  segments.  Substantial  sales  growth  was  seen  below  $2  million  and  there  was  a  small  gain  for  sales  above  $3  million.  More  than  half  of  the  sales  in  the  luxury  market  are  between  $1  and  $1.5  million.  

0"

20"

40"

60"

80"

100"

120"

$1")"$1.25" $1.25")"$1.5" $1.5")"$1.75" $1.75")"$2" $2")"$2.25" $2.25")"$2.5" $2.5")"$2.75" $2.75")$3" >$3"

Boulder County Luxury Sales by Price

2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"

The  luxury  market  segment  has  recovered  well  from  the  economic  crash  in  2008.  Luxury  homes  are  more  and  more  seen  as  diversification  in  the  portfolios  of  the  wealthy.  Over  the  past  decade  the  housing  stock  in  Boulder  County  has  improved  significantly.  More  and  more  homes  in  the  luxury  segment  are  built  and  remodeled  each  year.  Boulder  County  is  becoming  known  as  a  relevant  destination  for  high  net  worth  families  looking  for  a  lifestyle  change.    I  predict  that  this  trend  will  continue.    Negotiations  in  the  higher  price  range  are  different  than  the  average  transaction  in  Boulder  County.  This  past  year  the  average  buyer  in  Boulder  County  was  able  to  negotiate  1.89%  off  of  the  list  price.  At  4.49%  the  negotiations  for  a  luxury  home  were  more  than  double  that  average.    In  general,  there  were  more  homes  on  the  market  in  the  luxury  segment  at  any  given  time,  so  it  was  more  of  a  buyer’s  market.    Although  in  looking  all  the  way  back  to  2005,  this  past  year  was  the  strongest  seller’s  market  across  the  board  in  terms  of  sales  sticking  close  to  list  prices.    

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Boulder  County  Sales  Activity  

   

                                 

0"

200"

400"

600"

800"

1000"

1200"

1400"

1600"

1800"

Q4"2009"

Q1"2010"

Q2"2010"

Q3"2010"

Q4"2010"

Q1"2011"

Q2"2011"

Q3"2011"

Q4"2011""

Q1"2012"

Q2"2012"

Q3"2012"

Q4"2012"

Q1"2013"

Q2"2013"

Q3"2013"

Q4"2013"

Q"1"2014"

Q2"2014"

Q3"2014"

Q4"2014"

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County

67%

31%

2%

Boulder County Sales by Type

Residential Attached Other

27%$

5%$

11%$31%$

4%$

7%$

15%$

Boulder(County(Sales(by(Area(Boulder$ Louisville$ Lafaye7e$ Longmont$ Superior$ Mountains$ Plains$

The  top  chart  shows  the  total  number  of  sales  in  Boulder  County  each  quarter  over  the  past  five  years.  The  trend  line  shows  that  sales  are  increasing  over  that  time  period.  To  read  the  graph  correctly,  compare  the  same  quarter  in  each  year.  Taking  the  most  recent  quarter  as  an  example,  we  find  that  this  years  sales  were  higher  than  any  other  4th  quarter  over  the  past  five  years.    

The  chart  titled  “Boulder  County  Sales  by  Type”  shows  that  67%  of  all  sales  are  single  family  residential  homes  and  31%  are  condos  or  townhomes  and  2%  are  other  categories  such  as  vacant  land  and  income  property.  As  you  will  look  through  the  submarkets  later  in  this  report  you  will  find  some  interesting  distinctions  between  our  local  communities.  

The  colorful  pie  chart  on  the  right  shows  where  the  sales  took  place  in  Boulder  County  during  the  most  recent  quarter.  Longmont  had  the  most  sales  (31%)  followed  by  Boulder  (27%).    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   9    

Boulder  County  Price  Trends  

   

           

36%

33%

27%

43%

42%

46%

13%

14%

16%

6%

6%

5%

3%

5%

5%

Q4#2012#

Q4#2013#

Q4#2014#

Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range 0#(#250K# 250#(#500K# 500#(#750K# 750#(#1M# 1M+#

!$#!!!!

!$50,000!!

!$100,000!!

!$150,000!!

!$200,000!!

!$250,000!!

!$300,000!!

!$350,000!!

!$400,000!!

!$450,000!!

!$500,000!!

Q3!2009!

Q4!2009!

Q1!2010!

Q2!2010!

Q3!2010!

Q4!2010!

Q1!2011!

Q2!2011!

Q3!2011!

Q4!2011!!

Q1!2012!

Q2!2012!

Q3!2012!

Q4!2012!

Q1!2013!

Q2!2013!

Q3!2013!

Q4!2013!

Q!1!2014!

Q2!2014!

Q3!2014!

Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate

Median Price

Average Price

US Existing Median Price

The  top  chart  to  the  left  shows  the  price  breakdown  of  sales  in  Boulder  County  in  the  4rd  quarter  over  the  past  three  years.  It’s  interesting  to  see  that  as  prices  have  increased,  the  percentage  of  homes  that  have  sold  less  than  $250,000  has  decreased  from  36%  to  27%.    As  prices  have  increased,  there  has  been  a  shift  to  the  right  on  this  graph  over  time.  Less  light  grey  and  more  orange,  green  ,  dark  grey  and  blue.    The  lower  graph  shows  the  rise  in  prices  in  Boulder  County  compared  to  the  national  average.  Average  prices  in  Boulder  County  have  increased  almost  $100,000  in  the  last  five  years!  

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   10    

City  of  Boulder  Sales  Activity  

 

                   

 

0"

100"

200"

300"

400"

500"

600"

700"

Q4"2009"

Q1"2010"

Q2"2010"

Q3"2010"

Q4"2010"

Q1"2011"

Q2"2011"

Q3"2011"

Q4"2011""

Q1"2012"

Q2"2012"

Q3"2012"

Q4"2012"

Q1"2013"

Q2"2013"

Q3"2013"

Q4"2013"

Q1"2014"

Q2"2014"

Q3"2014"

Q4"2014"

Five"Year"Trend"of"Sales"Ac=vity""City"of"Boulder""!

19%

16%

20%

31%

14%

City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code

80301 80302 80303 80304 80305

50% 50%

Sales by Type City of Boulder

Residential Attached

The  trend  line  for  sales  in  Boulder  County  is  almost  flat  over  the  past  five  years.  The  lack  of  new  construction  and  the  lack  of  inventory  within  the  city  limits  have  combined  to  hold  sales  relatively  steady.  Sales  in  the  City  of  Boulder  were  down  6.4%  this  year  compared  to  last  year.    The  pie  chart  on  the  left  shows  sales  during  the  4th  quarter  broken  out  by  zip  codes.    This  past  quarter,  the  zip  code  of  80304  in  the  northwest  part  of  the  city  had  the  most  sales.    The  pie  chart  on  the  right  shows  that  the  sales  mix  between  single  family  homes  (orange)  and  attached  dwellings  (green).  This  past  quarter  the  sales  mix  was  a  perfect  50/50.    Recall  that  in  the  county  as  a  whole  it  was  67%  residential  and  31%  attached  dwellings.    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   11    

City  of  Boulder  Price  Trends  

 

     

25%

23%

21%

37%

34%

31%

22%

25%

26%

10%

9%

9%

6%

10%

13%

Q3#2011#

Q3#2012#

Q3#2013#

City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range 0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Q3#2009#

Q4#2009#

Q1#2010#

Q2#2010#

Q3#2010#

Q4#2010#

Q1#2011#

Q2#2011#

Q3#2011#

Q4#2011##

Q1#2012#

Q2#2012#

Q3#2012#

Q4#2012#

Q1#2013#

Q2#2013#

Q3#2013#

Q4#2013#

Q1#2014#

Q2#2014#

Q3#2014#

City of Boulder Price Trends

Median#Price# Average#Price# County#Median#

The  top  chart  on  this  page  shows  that  the  price  of  homes  in  the  lower  ranges  within  the  City  of  Boulder  has  shrunk  by  10%  over  the  past  three  years.  Sales  under  $500k  in  2012  represented  62%  of  the  market  and  this  past  quarter  is  was  52%.  Sales  over  $750k  represented  16%  in  2012  and  now  it  is  22%.    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   12    

East  County  Sales  Activity  

 

                   

0"

100"

200"

300"

400"

500"

600"

Q4"2009"

Q1"2010"

Q2"2010"

Q3"2010"

Q4"2010"

Q1"2011"

Q2"2011"

Q3"2011"

Q4"2011""

Q1"2012"

Q2"2012"

Q3"2012"

Q4"2012"

Q1"2013"

Q2"2013"

Q3"2013"

Q4"2013"

Q1"2014"

Q2"2014"

Q3"2014"

Q4"2014"

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities

67%

33%

Sales&by&Type&East&County&Communi3es!

Residen3al& A7ached&

20%$

48%$

17%$

15%$

East County Sales by Area

Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie

East  County  comprises  Louisville,  Lafayette,  Superior  and  Erie.  Sales  have  increased  in  these  communities  over  the  past  five  years.  My  data  is  compiled  through  the  local  MLS  system  IRES,  which  doesn’t  include  all  new  construction,  so  these  numbers  should  be  even  more  pronounced.  The  fourth    quarter  was  strong  but  sales  were  lower  than  the  previous  two  years.  For  the  year,  sales  were  down  12%.  This  is  the  largest  decrease  of  the  areas  studied.  County  wide  sales  were  down  just  3%.  As  you  move  East,  you  find  fewer  and  fewer  attached  dwellings.  In  the  most  recent  quarter  67%  of  the  sales  were  single  family  sales.    It  will  be  interesting  to  see  if  there  are  more  attached  dwellings  constructed  in  these  areas  as  buildable  land  becomes  scarce.  During  the  most  recent  quarter,  Lafayette  had  48%  of  the  sales  for  this  quartet  of  communities.    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   13    

East  County  Price  Trends  

 

     

25%

23%

18%

59%

59%

59%

15%

11%

18%

1%#

6%#

4%#

Q4#2014#

Q4#2013#

Q4#2012#

East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range 0#*#250K# 250#*#500K# 500#*#750K# 750#*#1M# 1M+#

!$#!!!!

!$50,000!!

!$100,000!!

!$150,000!!

!$200,000!!

!$250,000!!

!$300,000!!

!$350,000!!

!$400,000!!

!$450,000!!

Q4!2009!

Q1!2010!

Q2!2010!

Q3!2010!

Q4!2010!

Q1!2011!

Q2!2011!

Q3!2011!

Q4!2011!!

Q1!2012!

Q2!2012!

Q3!2012!

Q4!2012!

Q1!2013!

Q2!2013!

Q3!2013!

Q4!2013!

Q1!2014!

Q2!2014!

Q3!2014!

Q4!2014!

Price Trend in East Boulder County

Median Price Average Price County Median Price

Over  the  past  four  years,  sales  in  the  entry-­‐level  price  range  (under  $250,000)  in  Louisville,  Lafayette,  Erie  and  Superior  have  decreased  from  25%  to  16%  and  the  $500  -­‐  $750k  price  range  has  grown  from  15%  to  18%.    Price  growth  has  been  steady.  

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   14    

Gunbarrel  Sales  Activity  

 

                                                                                   

     

0"

10"

20"

30"

40"

50"

60"

70"

80"

90"

100"

Q4"2009"

Q1"2010"

Q2"2010"

Q3"2010"

Q4"2010"

Q1"2011"

Q2"2011"

Q3"2011"

Q4"2011""

Q1"2012"

Q2"2012"

Q3"2012"

Q4"2012"

Q1"2013"

Q2"2013"

Q3"2013"

Q4"2013"

Q1"2014"

Q2"2014"

Q3"2014"

Q4"2014"

Five"Year"Trend"of"Sales"Ac>vity"A"Gunbarrel!

Residential 51%

Attached 49%

Sales&by&Type&Gunbarrel!

Gunbarrel  includes  a  geographical  area  roughly  5  miles  northeast  of  Boulder  and  includes  properties  both  in  and  out  of  the  city  limits.  During  the  most  recent  quarter  there  were  just  59  sales,  this  is  by  far  the  smallest  market  segment  we  track.  Because  of  the  small  sample  size  the  data  tends  to  be  more  volatile  than  the  other  areas  presented  in  this  report.  

Sales  have  trended  up  over  the  past  five  years  in  Gunbarrel.  The  fourth  quarter  in  Gunbarrel  was  lower  than  the  third  quarter  but  better  than  any  other  fourth  quarter  over  the  past  five  years.    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   15    

Gunbarrel  Price  Trends    

   

   

!$#!!!!

!$50,000!!

!$100,000!!

!$150,000!!

!$200,000!!

!$250,000!!

!$300,000!!

!$350,000!!

!$400,000!!

!$450,000!!

!$500,000!!

Q4!2009!

Q1!2010!

Q2!2010!

Q3!2010!

Q4!2010!

Q1!2011!

Q2!2011!

Q3!2011!

Q4!2011!!

Q1!2012!

Q2!2012!

Q3!2012!

Q4!2012!

Q1!2013!

Q2!2013!

Q3!2013!

Q4!2013!

Q1!2014!

Q2!2014!

Q3!2014!

Q4!2014!

Price Trend in Gunbarrel

Median!Price!

Average!Price!

Boulder!County!Median!

36%$

33%$

52%$

54%$

48%$

48%$

8%$

11%$

0%$

2%$

4%$

0%$

4%$

0%$

Q4$2012$

Q4$2013$

Q4$2014$

$$$$$$Gunbarrel$Percent$of$Sales$by$Price$Range!0$?$250K$ 250$?$500K$ 500$?$750K$ 750$?$1M$ 1M+$

The  prices  in  Gunbarrel  are  more  reasonable  than  in  the  City  of  Boulder.  As  the  prices  rise  in  Boulder,  Gunbarrel  becomes  a  good  option.  The  median  price  in  Gunbarrel  for  the  most  recent  quarter  was  $370,000  compared  to  $489,000  in  the  City  of  Boulder.  Both  Boulder  and  Gunbarrel  have  a  similar  percentage  of  single  family  vs.  condo  sales.    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   16    

Longmont  Sales  Activity  

 

                                                     

0"

100"

200"

300"

400"

500"

600"

Q4"2009"

Q1"2010"

Q2"2010"

Q3"2010"

Q4"2010"

Q1"2011"

Q2"2011"

Q3"2011"

Q4"2011""

Q1"2012"

Q2"2012"

Q3"2012"

Q4"2012"

Q1"2013"

Q2"2013"

Q3"2013"

Q4"2013"

Q1"2014"

Q2"2014"

Q3"2014"

Q4"2014"

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont

Residential 78%

Attached 22%

Sales&by&Type&Longmont!

38%

24%

38%

Sales by Zip Code - Longmont 80501 80503 80504

During  2014,  the  number  of  sales  were  down  3.8%  in  Longmont.  The  trend  shows  increasing  sales  and  the  low  prices  in  Longmont  are  becoming  a  draw  to  first  time  home  buyers.  

During  the  most  recent  quarter  78%  of  the  sales  were  single  family  detached  homes.  This  is  typical  for  Longmont.  There  tend  to  be  more  smaller  entry  level  homes  instead  of  condos  in  Longmont.  

The  pie  chart  on  the  right  shows  where  the  sales  took  place  in  Longmont.  This  past  quarter  central  Longmont  (80501)  and  Northeast  Longmont  (80504)  had  the  most  sales.    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   17    

Longmont  Price  Trends  

   

             

63%$

56%$

45%$

34%$

40%$

49%$

2%$

3%$

4%$

1%$

0%$

1%$

0%$

0%$

0%$

Q4$2012$

Q4$2013$

Q4$2014$

Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range 0$,$250K$ 250$,$500K$ 500$,$750K$ 750$,$1M$ 1M+$

!$#!!!!

!$50,000!!

!$100,000!!

!$150,000!!

!$200,000!!

!$250,000!!

!$300,000!!

!$350,000!!

!$400,000!!

Q4!2009!

Q1!2010!

Q2!2010!

Q3!2010!

Q4!2010!

Q1!2011!

Q2!2011!

Q3!2011!

Q4!2011!!

Q1!2012!

Q2!2012!

Q3!2012!

Q4!2012!

Q1!2013!

Q2!2013!

Q3!2013!

Q4!2013!

Q1!2014!

Q2!2014!

Q3!2014!

Q4!2014!

Price Trend in Longmont

Median!Price! Average!Price! Boulder!County!

The  median  price  for  all  sales  in  Longmont  for  the  quarter  was  $261,000.  Much  lower  than  the  county  average  of  $345,000.  For  the  year  prices  in  Longmont  are  up  by  9.2%.  

The  top  chart  to  the  left  shows  clearly  the  affects  of  increasing  prices.  Sales  over  $500,000  in  Longmont  are  a  very  small  part  of  the  market  so  as  prices  increase  you  can  see  that  a  large  chunk  of  homes  appreciated  from  below  $250k  to  above  $250k  over  the  past  three  years.    Longmont  is  the  only  area  where  the  median  and  average  price  are  lower  than  the  county  average.    If  you  are  looking  for  affordable  housing,  Longmont  is  still  a  great  place  to  look.    

The  Kearney  Report  

KearneyRealty.com   18    

Kearney  Realty  Co.  –  Our  Core  Values    

1. Integrity  and  Class  –  Keeping  our  word;  knowing  what’s  right  and  doing  what’s  right.  

2. Selfless  Service  –  Exceeding  expectations  by  focusing  on  exceptional  service.  

3. Caring  –  All  of  our  relationships  are  based  on  mutual  respect,  cooperation  and  consideration.  

4. Connected  –  A  culture  of  giving  our  time  and  money  back  to  the  profession  and  the  community.    

5. Innovation  –  Continually  striving  to  find  new  and  better  ways  to  serve  our  customers  and  our  associates.