the key to the possibilities of key to the possibilities of “next: ... adapting to the new...

The Key to the Possibilities of

“Next:”

A Transformational Approach

by:

Cheryl Smith

Sep. 5, 2017

www.smithandassociates.us.com • 1.877.987.64841.415.305.7952

Presentation

Challenge

Proposed:

“Effective anticipation (of rising to

the challenges that new competitors

present) needs to be a culture-

driven team sport. It requires an

agreement that the viewpoints

expressed in our plans and

architectures must extend beyond

particular sets of concerns, and that

they must also include viewpoints

that characterize our evolutionary

needs going forward.”

What can today’s technology leaders

do to See Beyond the Moment?


Agenda

1. Now…Next…Later—2 Views

2. What are “Now” Issues?

3. What are “Later” Issues?

4. What Solutions are Possibilities?

5. Our Role / Responsibilities as IT

Leaders

6. What to Do?


NOW…NEXT…LATER—2 Views

• Conference Definition:

• S Curve Definition:

4

NOW NEXT LATERnext 18 months 4 years out (2022) 7+ years out (2025)

Innovation Stall Rapid Expansion Maturity1980—2000 (2000—2015) (2015—2040) (2040+)


NOW…NEXT—Conference View Issues

• Applications

• Operations

• Infrastructure

• Telecommunications

• Security

• Cost

‘Cost-effective’ is more than a buzz word

– Build in measurement

– Perform benchmarks

– PROVE the value of your efforts

• Buy v Build

• Know the 1/3—1/3—1/3 rule (build, test, deploy)

• KNOW and IMPLEMENT solid IT processes

– Development methodologies (Agile, SCRUM,

iterative development)

– Dev/Ops methodologies

– Operational best practices

• Cloud v In-House

– KNOW the contractual financial risks

– KNOW the data risks

– Recognize that ‘data center is a box’ is

coming

• Appliances

• In-house private cloud technologies

• Create state-of-the-art Infrastructures

– Enterprise Service Bus

– Identity Management

– Token Brokers (for PCI)

• Hire technically trained and passionate IT people

– Organize IT correctly (there are right ways,

and wrong ways)

– Create TechTraks for the best-of-our-best

– Create realistic plans, and deliver on them

– Over communicate—correctly!

5

www.smithandassociates.us.com • 1.877.987.64841.415.305.79521.415.305.7952

S Curves and the Industrial Revolutions—

History keeps repeating itself

6

GDP Impact

TIme

Industrial Revolution 1:Loom & Textiles

1790—1850

Industrial Revolution 2:Steam & Rail

1830—1920

Industrial Revolution 3:Oil & Mass Production

1910—2000

Industrial Revolution 4:Computing & Digital

1980—2040


Innovation…Stall…Rapid Expansion—History and the 4th (Digital) Revolution

7

GDP Impact

TIme1980-2000 2000-2015 2015 2040

Stall Zone

Phase 4: Maturity

Phase 2: The Stall• Revolution seems to stall• Value bubble has broken• But…economic models have changed and take

hold. Existing industries begin to change, adapting to the new technologies and models.

Phase 1: Burst of Innovation• Breakthrough in foundations—

1. loom, 2. steam, 3. mass production, 4. digital.

• High concentration of wealth creation.

• New industries created; existing industries less impacted.

• Big press clippings, but not yet a driver of job creation.

Phase 3: Massive Buildout• Societies, companies, individuals

that adopted new models are rewarded.

• National GDPs experience ‘lift off.’• Companies are rearranged—time

of distinct winners and losers.• Large wealth distribution with

middle-classes reestablished during buildout .


S Curves and the Industrial Revolutions—

History keeps repeating itself

8

GDP Impact

TIme

Industrial Revolution 1:Loom & Textiles

1790—1850

Industrial Revolution 2:Steam & Rail

1830—1920

Industrial Revolution 3:Oil & Mass Production

1910—2000

Industrial Revolution 4:Computing & Digital

1980—2040


Innovation…Stall…Rapid Expansion—History and the 4th (Digital) Revolution

9

GDP Impact

TIme1980-2000 2000-2015 2015 2040

Stall Zone

Phase 4: Maturity

Phase 2: The Stall• Revolution seems to stall• Value bubble has broken• But…economic models have changed and take

hold. Existing industries begin to change, adapting to the new technologies and models.

Phase 1: Burst of Innovation• Breakthrough in foundations—

1. loom, 2. steam, 3. mass production, 4. digital.




Phase 3: Massive Buildout• Societies, companies, individuals

that adopted new models are rewarded.

• National GDPs experience ‘lift off.’• Companies are rearranged—time

of distinct winners and losers.• Large wealth distribution with

middle-classes reestablished during buildout .


1980—2015 Times of Innovation—and Stall

10

• IBM PC Aug 12, 1981• Apple/Microsoft 1980s• Amazon July 5, 1994 • eBay Sep 3, 1995 • Internet (reasonable speeds) mid-1990s• Netflix Aug 29, 1997• Google Sep 4, 1998• Facebook Feb 4, 2004• Twitter Mar 21, 2006• iPhone Jan 9, 2007• Airbnb Aug 2008• Uber Mar 2009

1. Burst of Computing Innovation

2017Amazon buys Whole FoodsWalmart teams with Google

GDP Impact

TIme1980-2000 2000-2015 2015 2040

Stall Zone

Phase 4: Maturity

Phase 2: The Stall• Revolution seems to stall• Value bubble has broken• But…economic models have changed and

take hold. Existing industries begin to change, adapting to the new technologies and models.

Phase 1: Burst of Innovation• Breakthrough in

foundations— 1. loom, 2. steam, 3. mass production, 4. digital.




Phase 3: Massive Buildout• Societies, companies,

individuals that adopted new models are rewarded.

• National GDPs experience ‘lift off.’

• Companies are rearranged—time of distinct winners and losers.

• Large wealth distribution with middle-classes reestablished during buildout .

2. The Stall 3. …Established firms are beginning to incorporate the technology

innovationsThe 3rd Industrial Revolution is running out of gas while the 4th has yet to grab hold at scale. But…


The Innovators Changed Industries• Did you think in 1998 when Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold

85% of all photo paper worldwide that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

• Uber is just a software tool. It doesn’t own any cars. It is now the biggest taxi company in the world.

• Airbnb doesn’t own any property. It is now the biggest hotel company in the world.

• Watson is now 4 times more accurate in diagnosing cancer than human nurses.

11

Founded: August 2008, San Francisco, CAHeadquarters: San Francisco, CA

Software is now disrupting most traditional industries, and those

industries are (finally) responding/reacting.


What are the ‘Later’ Issues?• Example: Young children today will never get a driver’s

license and will never own a car.– Today we have 1 accident every 60,000 miles. Around 2020 that

will drop to 1 accident every 6 million miles.

– The car insurance business model will disappear. Most car companies will disappear. Software companies will build computers on wheels.

12

What will happen to the millions of drivers, insurance agents, car

manufacturers, and other automobile organizations that will no longer

be needed? Who will own the data? Who will pay for the changes?

What is our responsibility as technology leaders in helping to shape

this future?

The only car this 2 year old will ever drive and own.

– The impact on cities and infrastructure will be massive:• Cars, streetlights and road beds will be

studded with sensors

• Physical changes to cities will include the lack of need for parking—anywhere!

• Physical changes to roads will most likely be demanded for ridesharing services, curbside loading docks, special lanes and rights of way

www.smithandassociates.us.com • 1.877.987.64841.415.305.79521.415.305.7952 13

What are the “Later” Issues? What will happen to workers?


What are the “Later” Issues?

• 47% of today’s jobs will disappear in the next 25 years. (Wharton School of Business)

– 30% of the activities in 60% of all occupations will be automated over the next 10 years—from welders to gardeners to CEOs. (McKinsey Global Institute)

– There will be new jobs created, but will there be ‘enough’ to reestablish the middle class as in past Industrial Revolutions?

14

“No government is prepared” nor are corporations

currently willing to address, that level of job loss. (The

Economist) The implications on wealth redistribution—on

everything!—are…revolutionary.


What Solutions are Possible?Communities Turn to Micro Economics

Suburb of Pittsburgh, PA a 30-something year old keeps his 40+ welders busy between fracking jobs with…

Whiskey Distilleries

• Have built a prototype of a modular ‘portable’ distillery

• Can be (legally) sold over the Internet

• Takes advantage of global shipping and distribution

• First batches of whiskey produced this year (quite smooth, I’m told)

Downtown Hamilton, MO (pop. 1,800)

one family (Jenny Doan and her

children) revitalized the town with…

Quilts

• “How to” quilting videos on

YouTube has drawn millions of views

• Website built to sell products that

viewers demand

• Now have multiple shops,

restaurants, even hotels all to

support the thousands of packages

/ day that shipped worldwide, and

Visitors who come to the town

to buy quilting products

directly

• 180 people currently directly

employed

15

“Companies have a moral obligation to do more for society. The private sector has not only a moral obligation but also a deeply vested interest in delivering on this potential for public good. Why? Because businesses cannot outgrow the economy of their communities.” Jamie Dimon, CEO JPMorgan, Apr 26, 2017

Example: Example:


What Solutions are Possible?Nations Turn to Universal Basic Income (UBI)

• All citizens or residents of a country receive a regular, unconditional sum of money, either from

a government or some other public institution, independent of any other income, at a level

sufficient for subsistence.

• It is welfare substitution, and as such a much simpler and more transparent welfare system

than ones existing in the around the world today. Instead of having numerous welfare programs,

it would simply be one universal unconditional income.

• It has the potential to reduce or even eradicate poverty.

• Affordability of a basic income proposal relies on many factors such as the costs of any public

services it replaces, tax changes required, and less tangible auxiliary effects on government

revenue and/or spending (for example a successful basic income scheme may reduce crime,

thereby reducing required expenditure on policing and justice).

• Examples:

– As of 2017, the only well established and ongoing cash transfer programs akin to a basic income are the

Permanent Fund of Alaska in the United States, and Bolsa Família in Brazil. Additionally, several other

countries have tested, implemented, or begun planning the following basic income experiments:

• The GiveDirectly experiment in Nairobi, Kenya, which is the biggest and longest basic income pilot

as of 2017.[39]

• A study undertaken in rural North Carolina in the U.S.

• The city of Utrecht in the Netherlands launched an experiment in early 2017 that is testing different

rates of aid.

• Ontario, Canada will implement a basic income trial in summer 2017.

• The Finnish government implemented a two-year pilot in January 2017 involving 2,000

subjects.

16

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income#cite_note-39


What Solutions are Possible?The Technologies Go Mainstream

• At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. Along with a 3D home printer, you can scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.– China has already 3D printed and built a

complete 6-story office building.

– In 10 years, an estimated 10% of everything that is being produced today will be 3D printed.

• With a simple retina scan, breath and blood sample (most likely taken by your cell phone), 54 bio-markers will identify nearly any disease.

• News reporting is already real-time. Analytics will begin to weed out the fake reports from the real ones.

17

Smart Leaders Embrace Innovation


Our Role / Responsibilities as IT Leaders

• As demonstrated by our recent election, a large portion of the central US is unhappy and afraid of the future. Technology is a major cause.

• As demonstrated here, technology is projected to cause even more disruption. – A simple example: 3 million people who drive today for a

living (delivery, taxi, even Uber) are projected to be out of work due to self-driving cars in the near future.

• If technology is the primary, if not the cause of the “Next” and “Later” issues, what are our roles and responsibilities as technology leaders?

18

How do we as IT leaders lead in the 4th Revolution?


What to Do?

1. Do nothing.

2. We are corporate executives and employees—our

loyalty is to our company and our shareholders.

Do what is best for our employer.

3. We have a social responsibility, but it is personal.

4. We have a social responsibility, and it is

professional.

19

Do you believe that technology leaders have a responsibility for addressing the impacts that technology is having on society?

If “yes,” what actions do you believe that we, as individual technology leaders, can take to help address and mitigate the (inevitable) disruptive

impacts?


What to Do? (Do what technologists do best)

Figure out how to incorporate the new technologies

• Established companies understand their markets, products, and regulations better than anyone– Embed the digital technologies into products and services

– Change business and process models to accommodate

• Basic principles:– Review everything with the goal of reducing costs by 25%, increasing

productivity by 25%

– Automate everything that can be automated

– Harvest the data

– Invent new products and services and experiences

• Keys to success:– Do not accept reluctance, naysayers, leaders who don’t lead

– Be open and clear about what data is being collected and your security measures to protect it• Give to get

20


What to Do? (Do what technologists do best)

Organizational cultures are what is measured.(Think about the recent Wells Fargo and United examples.)

• By 2020, there should be a generally accepted and applied international standard that would effectively integrate financial, environmental, and social reporting by all organizations. Begin now and get ahead of the game!

• Customers, Investors, and other Stakeholders are increasingly asking for this information; in fact, it is valuable information to have.

• The benefits are great: by having a corporate culture that rewards financial performance as well as ‘doing the right thing,’ companies can potentially: – Increase revenue,

– Reduce cost,

– Optimize the supply chain,

– Improve brand or reputation,

– (Substantially) reduce business risk.

– And it might help your career as a leader!

21


What to Do? (Don’t start from scratch!)

• The Global Reporting Initiative (known as GRI) is an international independent standards organization that helps businesses, governments and other organizations understand and communicate their impacts on issues in addition to financial reporting…– such as employee practices, customer and product responsibilities,

environmental impact, human rights and corruption.

• As of 2015, 7,500 organizations reported via GRI Guidelines.– Some countries and stock exchanges are beginning to require

integrated reporting.

• GRI Guidelines apply to multinational organizations, public agencies, smaller and medium enterprises, NGOs, industry groups and others. – For municipal governments, they have generally been subsumed by

similar guidelines from the UN ICLEI.

22


What to Do?

23

The Global Reporting Initiative

Impacts on living and non-living natural systems, including ecosystems, land, air, and water.

Economic Environmental Social

Impacts on the economic conditions of its stakeholders at local, national and global levels.

Impacts on the social systems within which it operates.

Labor Practices

Impacts on its workforce, including labor/management relations, health and safety, training and education, and diversity.

Human Rights

Impacts on Human Rights, including investment & procurement practices, child & forced labor, and security practices.

Society

Impacts on the communities in which it operates, including corruption, public policy, and anti-competitive behavior.

Customer & Product

Product impact on its customers, including health and safety, information and labeling, marketing, and privacy.

Corporate culture is what is measured.


What to Do? (Personal secret to future success)

• Recent Harvard study results: What makes CEOs successful?

The candidates earning an overall 'A' rating in their database had distinguished themselves in more than one of four management traits. (Only five percent of the weakest performers, meanwhile, had done the same.) The four were:

– REACHING OUT TO STAKEHOLDERS; (appropriately—unlike the CEO of United)

– BEING HIGHLY ADAPTABLE TO CHANGE; (different than leading in hard times)

– BEING RELIABLE AND PREDICTABLE RATHER THAN SHOWING EXCEPTIONAL, AND

PERHAPS NOT REPEATABLE, PERFORMANCE;

– MAKING FAST DECISIONS WITH CONVICTION, IF NOT NECESSARILY PERFECT

ONES.

• "We frankly expected to find that strong CEOs stood out for the quality of their decisions -- that they turn out to be right more frequently. But what very clearly stood out was the speed. Quality was likely something they developed earlier, but then they're willing to step up and make the decision faster, even with more uncertainty.“ (Study author Ms. Bothelho)

24


Working Dinner—Discussion Issues

(Select 1)

• GO HIGH: What other societal ‘solutions’ are possible?

(Micro Economic community solutions, UBI, as examples)

– A way to think about this issue: What will society value when “capital engines” that run on automatic via technology produce all of the food, clean water, housing, and security that we need?

• GO SPECIFIC: What can we do TODAY as IT leaders to help our companies be successful in this Rapid Buildout stage of the 4th (Digital) Revolution? (Reporting in GRI formats and making massive and substantive changes to our current products and services provided as examples)

– A way to think about this issue: What are the most complex choices/decisions ‘now’ that we are facing that will impact ‘next?’

– And how can we then influence our companies to more productively address those choices/decisions?

www.smithandassociates.us.com • 1.877.987.64841.415.305.7952 26

the key to the possibilities of key to the possibilities of “next: ... adapting to the new...

Documents