THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTUREIvo lausWorld Academy of Art and Science, member Board of Trustees, SEED South East European Division of WAAS, presidentWorld Council Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairsand The Club of Rome

The contemporary world: globalization science generated rapid changes science generated characterized by uncertainties and instabilities number of Earths required to provide resources used by humanity and to absorb their emissions for each year:197019802005 0.86 1.001.25World is dangerously in a state of overshoot. Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with governance

Cross-border trade: 1950 = 8% GDP, 2000 = 25% I. Kant 24 globalizers (3 billions) increased GDP/c by 5% vs nonglobalizers decreased by 1% 400 household goods in UK 20% cheaper than 10 years ago By 2010 50% internet users in developing world vs 4% now

Worker/producer person consumer/stakeholder

in 20 years 30 new infectious diseases, resistance to antibiotics, flu pandemic Terrorism (tanker in harbor: 55xHiroshima), crime (cyber) Trust changes quickly: 1975: 20% Americans trusted military vs 2000: 63% Demographic transition within rather short interval of time and extremely uneven

Failures Income gap: 1960 19901997 30:1 60:1 74(82):1 Undernourishment in industrial 2.5%, in Africa 40% In 1998 > 45% of people had to live on < $ 2/day1981 to 2001: living on $1/day fell by factor of 2while living on $2/day increased from 2.4 to 2.7 billions 54 countries experienced in 1990-2001 decline in GDP/c

NW:1945 1985 2005 1985 2005USA23,00010,500 USSR/Russia40,000 9,000world70,00030,000

Americas top 100 foreign policy experts opinion The single greatest threat to US national interestWMD47%Al Qaida terrorism32%Bush adm. policies14%Iraq war 9%Economic decline 5%Iran 4%Oil dependence 3% Are we winning war on terror? YES 13%, NO 84%

Chart1

6629

8212

7820

7424

7017

6928

6133

5243

4847

No

Yes

Country Governed by the Will of the People?

Sheet1

NoYes

Total Sample6629

Mid East8212

Latin America7820

Asia/Pacific7424

E & C Europe7017

Africa6928

European Union6133

North America5243

Non-EU Europe4847

Sheet2

Sheet2

6629

8212

7820

7424

7017

6928

6133

5243

4847

No

Yes

Country Governed by the Will of the People?

Sheet3

Sheet3

6629

8212

7820

7424

7017

6928

6133

5243

4847

No

Yes

Fig 6 Country Governed by the Will of the People?

Gallup Voice of the People May-June 2005: 50,000 citizens, 65 countries equivalent 1.3 billion persons(1)Election free/fair(2)Country governed by the will of the people world 47%30%

Political stability index = (1)(2) + (1)(-2) (-1)(-2) PSI 2003 PSI 2004 PSI 2005World 1412 5Latin America -20 -21 -2

Business leaders Political leaders

Not competent23%45%Unethical38%49%Too much power46%53%Dishonest40%61%

Percentage of people declaring themselves or family have not enough to eat W.Europe 4%Asia Pacific13%N. America17%Latin America22%E&C Europe25%Africa43%World18%Highest percentages: Nigeria (56%), Philippines (46%), Peru (42%), Ukraine (38%), Pakistan (32%), Russia (31%)

Most important problems facing the world todayPoverty26%Terrorism12%Unemployment 9%Wars and conlicts 8%Economic problems 7%Environment 6%Drugs 5%Crime 4%

Throughout our history resources have been finite. Possession of these resources meant political power.

Knowledge doubles in 5 15 yearsDecision-making: quite local and globalEducated vs Uneducateddemonstrate 31% 6%stopped buying goods 70%34%

The best place to store food is in another person belly. (Eskimossaying)

Social groups and interactions important in evolution. In 1973 John M. Smith applied game theory to the evolution of animal strategies. Animals not only compete but share a resource if that is beneficiary. Simple species display cooperation (prisoners dilemma).

Repeated prisoners dilemma winning strategy: tit-for-tat: cooperate and never be the first to defect, retaliate only after your partner has defected, forgive and cooperate after retaliating just once. (R.Axelrod)

Golden moral rule

Altruism is an example of a non-zero-sum-game, i.e. a win-win game. The state when nobody can gain without somebody else losing i.e. all win-win games are exhausted - is called the Pareto maximum.

Innovations and more importantly, scientific breakthroughs can increase the Pareto maximum.

Why?1) Holocene: 10-12 millennia ended in1784 (J. Watt), 1873: Antonio Stoppani, V.I. Vernadsky & Teillard de Chardin noosphere world of thought. Energy use grown 16 times during 20 c. Anthropocene epoch Paul Crutzen: Martin Rees: Bio and cyber expertise will be accessible to millions. It does not require special facilities...Even a simple person will have the capability of disrupting the world through terror or error.

2) Knowledge is the resource.

3) Breakthrough curiosity-driven research is the way to increase Paretos maximum.

Development of human and social capital, and increasing the Pareto optimum requires knowledge-based society.

Knowledge is the main resource in a knowledge-society. It permeates the life and the culture of a society: policy- and decision-making. Knowledge society is constantly changing.Knowledge is inexhaustible and it is increased by sharing.Knowledge is becoming today the main political power. (Alvin Toffler)

In the knowledge society many other resources are used use of most of them has to be appreciably reduced and substituted by other resources.

In our own selfish interest we have to get involved in the betterment of global conditions. We need to emphasize cooperation, networking and solidarity, increasing human options and freedom.

In a knowledge society individuals and social groups will still behave and act irrationally, make numerous mistakes, even be stupid. It is the responsibility of the knowledge society to develop and establish ways that can minimize the harm of such stupidities and maximize their possible benefits.

How? Learn from successes: world ave developing world 1960: 2250 2100 Kcal/day capita 1997: 2750 2600 Kcal/day capita Higher life expectancy and healthy active life end of Cold War and spread of democracies successful treaties, e.g. ozone

Our greatest success: Knowledge existing science, humanities and technology; knowledge one produces: ongoing and planned R&D,innovations and ideas -Iljf&Petrov education and language, literature, art We understand by our heart as much as by our brain. (B. Pascal)

Eliminate violence, war, terrorism Human and social dignity, development, full employment

Culture of peace and knowledge:democracy and freedom

Eliminate ignorance Research and education in spite of cumulative advantage feature of not an elite in a sea science breakthru catch up of mediocrity

We have to live with dangerous technologies

We have to live with uncertainties: in quantum physics from uncertainties to quantum computer and life

Reduce non-renewable resources and substitute by other resources.

Reduce and eliminate dangers and threats we face.

Knowledge can cause quantitative and qualitative jump in the GDP/capita

psycho-social pressures and stress + perception that our dignity and that of our social group is threatened + short term interests globalization interdependence/ no major war

energy demand: in 2030 2.6 times larger

small influence large effects (CO2) Search for alternative inputs much earlier than we reach a maximum.

whatever we do not do today will be more difficult to do tomorrow.

S&T give the power to change the future.

IGO handful 1900 to 4667 in 1996 NGO 196 in 1900 to 44,000 in 2000 Global civil society Knowledge-Governance Intertwining

Assure sustainable consumption. Minimize the dangers of modern technologies. Revitalize hidden and traditional knowledge.

How close are we in achieving knowledge society?ROADMAPEach nuclear state reduces its nuclear weapons (number and power) in half every two years.Each state reduces its total military power in half every five years.Appreciate: Education is needed not only for jobs and skills, but much more to be able to live.Assure: Low-cost technologies, e.g. ICT: $100 laptops.

education at all levels for everybody and lifelong Europe USA Japan South Korea % working population 21 % 38% 36%with tertiary education Gross enrolment 52% 81% 82%

Within 500 leading universities Europe cradle of education has very few. European Institute of Technology as a network

Economy will swell by 40% from 2005 to 2015 Chinese middle class: from 65 millions in 2005 to 650 in 2020

Appreciate: Work Employment. Changes in jobs and skills, Human resources development. Capacity to manage change. Taking risks and controlling risks.

Each state reduces unemployment by 2% each 2 years by increasing employment in education and research Since less person-hours are needed to achieve the same output in agriculture and manufacturing and since part of services are redundant, the demand for new jobs will be in education (About a factor 4-6, since instead of 12-16 year education, a lifelong, i.e. about 60 year long education, and for a much larger number od persons.) and in R&D. Knowledge-intensive sectors in EU = 33% (UK = 41%)

Europe USA Japan

GER&D/GDP 1.99% 2.76% 3.12% top 1% cited articles37.3% 62.8% scientific publications46.1% 39.4% 10.8% world researchers33.4% 22.8% 11.7%(5521 in thousands) 1843 1261 647 researchers/million inhabi 2319 4373 5085

Each state increases its GER&D to reach 3% of its GDP, but assuring that all R&D outputs indicators (top 5% cited papers, number of NP and FM laureates and of fellows of international/regional academies, number of leading universities and research institutes) increase, intertwining knowledge with economy and governance. (assessed by involvement of active top scientists in policy- and decision-making bodies above a threshold of 10%). Ownership of knowledge Knowledge as a common good.

Predictions & ScenariaScenaria are rigorous, logical, but imaginative stories about what future might be, designed to help plan.Scenaria are NOT predictions. Multiple scenaria. They are tools for preparation early 70-ies by Shell. Now IBM, Coca-Cola, Apple, AT&T, DARPA, Heineken, Kellogg, Republic of Singapore,...Scenaria identify predetermineds, critical uncrtainties, wild cards, embedded assumptions and it is useful if scenaria have early warnings.

Exponential growth - Singularities - Catastrophic phenomena - S curves

The Heaven ScenarioRay Kurzweil Singularity is near: conquering disease & poverty, technology is in control, but increase in wisdom, love, truth and peace.2) The Hell ScenarioBill Joy Why the future does not need us, F. Fukuyama Our posthuman future: hostile world, destroying large segments of biosphere, reversals.The Prevail ScenarioJaron Zepel Lanier (named virtual reality) The Future that Loves Us: increasing links among humans, transcendence is social, not solitary. Human are choosing their future.

Caveat: Knowledge is contextualized only within a specific cultural system.All cultures need constant changes?!!TIME Chronos and Kairos There was no time when we did not exists (Bhagavad Gita) Man is afraid of time, but time is afraid of pyramides(Arab) Future is an ethical category we choose it. (Soedjatmoko) Theory of relativity Albert Einstein

While most resources existed separately of people, knowledge resides in people.