the kyoto protocol: an assault on science, economic growth

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL:AN ASSAULT ON

SCIENCE,ECONOMIC GROWTH,

AND HUMAN FREEDOMS

A.A. IllarionovIllarionovAdviser to the President of RussiaAdviser to the President of Russia

August 16,August 16, 20020044©© InstituteInstitute of Economic Analysisof Economic Analysis

©ИЭА

KyotoKyoto’’s scientific basis s scientific basis ––

or the lack thereof.or the lack thereof.

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The Kyoto Protocol assumes thatThe Kyoto Protocol assumes thatthe 20the 20thth centurycentury’’s s ““global warmingglobal warming”” is unique.is unique.

Global temperature anomalies,Global temperature anomalies, 18601860--20022002

Source: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.49.

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It asserts that the 20It asserts that the 20thth century has been century has been the warmest in the last Millennium.the warmest in the last Millennium.

Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies,Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies, 10001000--20002000


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It asserts that the current global warming It asserts that the current global warming is explained by the increase is explained by the increase

in COin CO22 concentration in the atmosphereconcentration in the atmosphere……Global COGlobal CO22 concentration in the atmosphere, 1860concentration in the atmosphere, 1860--20032003

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.

270

290

310

330

350

370

39018

60

1868

1876

1884

1892

1900

1908

1916

1924

1932

1940

1948

1956

1964

1972

1980

1988

1996

2004

ppm

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……triggered by COtriggered by CO22 emissions emissions from the anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels.from the anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels.

GlobalGlobal COCO22 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, 1860emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, 1860--20002000


0

5

10

15

20

2518

60

1868

1876

1884

1892

1900

1908

1916

1924

1932

1940

1948

1956

1964

1972

1980

1988

1996

Bn

t

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Is this Is this ““theorytheory”” convincing?convincing?

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-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,012

,512

,011

,511

,010

,510

,0 9,5

9,0

8,5

8,0

7,5

7,0

6,5

6,0

5,5

5,0

4,5

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

Time, thousands of years before present

Tem

pera

ture

, o С

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

CO

2, pp

mv

Changes in temperature, oC

CO2 concentration, ppmv

The variation in global temperature cannot be The variation in global temperature cannot be explained by the variation in CO2 concentration in explained by the variation in CO2 concentration in

the atmosphere in the last 13 thousand years.the atmosphere in the last 13 thousand years.Changes in temperature and СО2 concentration, last 13 000 years

Sources: Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometercalibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica).- Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977; Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., ChappellazJ., Davis M., Delague G., Delmotte M., Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.Ya., Lorius C., Pepin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, vol. 399, N 6735, 3 June 1999, pp. 429-436; Neftel, Friedli, Moore et al. Historical Carbon Dioxide Record from the Siple Station Ice Core (reported on-line by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013). Bern, Switzerland, 1974.

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The variation in global temperature cannot be The variation in global temperature cannot be explained by the variation in COexplained by the variation in CO22 concentrationconcentration

in the atmosphere in the last 140 years.in the atmosphere in the last 140 years.Changes in temperature and СО2 concentration, last 140 years

13,6

13,7

13,8

13,9

14,0

14,1

14,218

60

1868

1876

1884

1892

1900

1908

1916

1924

1932

1940

1948

1956

1964

1972

1980

1988

1996

Glo

bal a

bsol

ute

tem

pera

ture

, o C

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

CO

2 con

cent

ratio

n, p

pm

Global temperature, oC



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CO2 emissions from the

burning of fossil fuels

The variation in global temperature cannot be The variation in global temperature cannot be explained by variation in COexplained by variation in CO22 emissions of emissions of anthropogenic origin in the last 140 years.anthropogenic origin in the last 140 years.

COCO22 emissions from the anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels, 1860emissions from the anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels, 1860--20002000


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Global temperature is better correlated Global temperature is better correlated with the Sunwith the Sun’’s geomagnetic activity s geomagnetic activity

than with COthan with CO22 concentration in the atmosphere.concentration in the atmosphere.SStandardized anomalies in COtandardized anomalies in CO22 concentration, AA Index concentration, AA Index

of geomagnetic activity and global temperature (22yma), 1889of geomagnetic activity and global temperature (22yma), 1889--20012001

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003, WDC for STP, Moscow .

-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,0

1889

1894

1899

1904

1909

1914

1919

1924

1929

1934

1939

1944

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

AA Index

CO2 concentration

Global temperature

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This is perhaps not so surprising given thatThis is perhaps not so surprising given thatCOCO22 of anthropogenic origin represents less of anthropogenic origin represents less

than 1% of total COthan 1% of total CO22 in the atmosphere.in the atmosphere.

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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CONCLUSION 1:CONCLUSION 1:

The correlation between COThe correlation between CO22 concentration concentration

in the atmosphere and global temperature is in the atmosphere and global temperature is

far from provenfar from proven..

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The very concept of the current global warmingThe very concept of the current global warmingcritically depends on the time horizon chosen.critically depends on the time horizon chosen.

It appears reasonable only for relatively shortIt appears reasonable only for relatively short--term periods (343 years).term periods (343 years).AbsoluteAbsolute temperature (temperature (1111 YMA)YMA),, Central England, 1659Central England, 1659--20022002

Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.

y = 0,002x + 8,803R2 = 0,392

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

9,0

9,5

10,0

10,5

1669

1684

1699

1714

1729

1744

1759

1774

1789

1804

1819

1834

1849

1864

1879

1894

1909

1924

1939

1954

1969

1984

1999

Deg

rees

C

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The very concept of the current global warmingThe very concept of the current global warmingappears unproven for longerappears unproven for longer--term periods term periods

(12 centuries).(12 centuries).AbsoluteAbsolute temperature (temperature (3030 YMA)YMA),, NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752--19921992

y = -0,0002x + 3,048R2 = 0,0495

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,578

1

840

899

958

1017

1076

1135

1194

1253

1312

1371

1430

1489

1548

1607

1666

1725

1784

1843

1902

1961

degr

ees

Source: World Data Center for Palaeoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

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The very concept of the current global warmingThe very concept of the current global warmingappears unproven for longappears unproven for long--term periods term periods

(35 centuries).(35 centuries).Absolute temperatureAbsolute temperature ((3030 YMA)YMA),, Tasmania,1571 BC Tasmania,1571 BC -- 1991 AD1991 AD

y = -2E-05x + 15,019R2 = 0,0057

14,0

14,2

14,4

14,6

14,8

15,0

15,2

15,4

15,6

15,8-1

571

-139

6

-122

1

-104

6

-871

-696

-521

-346

-171 4

179

354

529

704

879

1054

1229

1404

1579

1754

1929

degr

ees


©ИЭАSource: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp. 552-554.

The current global warming is not unique, nor is it The current global warming is not unique, nor is it the most pronounced in the history of civilization:the most pronounced in the history of civilization:

not in the last 5 thousand years, not in the last 5 thousand years, Variation in polar temperature in the last 5000 yearsVariation in polar temperature in the last 5000 years

Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)

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……not in the last 12 thousand years,not in the last 12 thousand years,Temperature over last 12 500 years

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

12,5

12,0

11,5

11,0

10,5

10,0 9,5

9,0

8,5

8,0

7,5

7,0

6,5

6,0

5,5

5,0

4,5

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0


Deg

rees

C

Source: Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica).- Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977.

©ИЭА

-12,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,041

540

138

637

235

734

332

831

429

928

527

025

624

122

721

219

818

316

915

414

012

511

1 96 82 67 53 38 24 9


Tem

pera

ture

, o С

……and not in the last 415 thousand years of the and not in the last 415 thousand years of the EarthEarth’’s historys history.

The longThe long--term climatic cycles term climatic cycles ((M. M. MilankovitchMilankovitch cycles) over last 415 000 yearscycles) over last 415 000 years

Source: Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis M., Delague G., DelmotteM., Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.Ya., Lorius C., Pepin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, vol. 399, N 6735, 3 June 1999, pp. 429-436.

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There is There is no signno sign that the warming of the that the warming of the

planet in the 20planet in the 20thth century was century was ““unique.unique.””

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Previous instances of global warming could Previous instances of global warming could

not been triggered by the anthropogenic not been triggered by the anthropogenic

burning of fossil fuels.burning of fossil fuels.

They are the result of They are the result of natural variabilitynatural variability. .

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Cases of global warming due to natural forces Cases of global warming due to natural forces

have been much have been much strongerstronger than the current one than the current one

of allegedly of anthropogenic origin.of allegedly of anthropogenic origin.

The anthropogenic impact on climate change The anthropogenic impact on climate change

through COthrough CO22 emissions from the burning of fossil emissions from the burning of fossil

fuels fuels –– if any if any –– is incomparably is incomparably weakerweaker than the than the

impact of natural forces.impact of natural forces.

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-12,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,041

540

038

537

035

534

032

531

029

528

026

525

023

522

020

519

017

516

014

513

011

510

0 85 70 55 40 25 10


Tem

pera

ture

, o С

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

CO

2, pp

mv

Changes in temperature, oC


Historically, changes in temperature precede changes in CO2 concentration, not vice versa.

Changes in temperature and СО2 concentration, last 415 000 years (D1-D4)

Sources: Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica).- Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977; Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis M., DelagueG., Delmotte M., Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.Ya., Lorius C., Pepin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, vol. 399, N 6735, 3 June 1999, pp. 429-436.

©ИЭА


The causality between COThe causality between CO22 concentration in the concentration in the

atmosphere and global temperature atmosphere and global temperature –– if any if any ––

is the is the oppositeopposite to what is asserted.to what is asserted.

©ИЭА

The asserted increase in the speed of the current The asserted increase in the speed of the current warming appears unprovenwarming appears unproven. It is neither unique, nor . It is neither unique, nor

is it the most pronounced for the last 343 years.is it the most pronounced for the last 343 years.30 year30 year--onon--year change in temperature (year change in temperature (3030 YMA)YMA),, Central England, 1659Central England, 1659--20022002

y = -0,0006x + 0,4267R2 = 0,2589

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

1688

1703

1718

1733

1748

1763

1778

1793

1808

1823

1838

1853

1868

1883

1898

1913

1928

1943

1958

1973

1988

Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.

©ИЭА

The asserted increase in the speed of the current The asserted increase in the speed of the current warming warming is neither unique, nor is it the most is neither unique, nor is it the most

pronounced in the last 35 centuries.pronounced in the last 35 centuries.30 year30 year--onon--year changes in temperatureyear changes in temperature,, Tasmania, 1751 BC Tasmania, 1751 BC –– 1991 AD1991 AD

y = 1E-07x + 0,0014R2 = 1E-07

-1,0

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0-1

541

-136

9

-119

7

-102

5

-853

-681

-509

-337

-165 7

179

351

523

695

867

1039

1211

1383

1555

1727

1899

degr

ees


©ИЭА

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

414,

540

0,5

386,

537

2,5

358,

534

4,5

330,

531

6,5

302,

528

8,5

274,

526

0,5

246,

523

2,5

218,

520

4,5

190,

517

6,5

162,

514

8,5

134,

512

0,5

106,

592

,578

,564

,550

,536

,522

,5 8,5


Deg

rees

C

The asserted increase in the speed of the current The asserted increase in the speed of the current warming warming is neither unique, nor is it the most is neither unique, nor is it the most pronounced in the last 415 thousand years.pronounced in the last 415 thousand years.

500 year500 year--onon--year changes in temperature over last 415 000 yearsyear changes in temperature over last 415 000 years,, VostokVostok ice coreice core

о

Source: Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis M., Delague G., Delmotte M., Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.Ya., Lorius C., Pepin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, vol. 399, N 6735, 3 June 1999, pp. 429-436.

©ИЭА

Average annual maximum in wind speed in Atlantic hurricanes

The asserted increase in the strength of the The asserted increase in the strength of the extraordinary climatic events appears unprovenextraordinary climatic events appears unproven..

©ИЭА


The changes in the frequency, speed, and The changes in the frequency, speed, and

strength of extraordinary climatic eventsstrength of extraordinary climatic events

in recent years are the in recent years are the oppositeopposite of what is of what is

assertedasserted..

©ИЭА

IPCC-used version of global temperature indexseems to be distorted.

lPCC-used and corrected versions of global temperature anomalies indices for Northern Hemisphere, 1400-1980

Source: S. McIntyre, R. McKitrick, Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series, Energy & Environment. Volume 14, Number 6, 2003.

©ИЭА


The The ““theorytheory”” of unique global warming in the of unique global warming in the

2020thth century is based on century is based on poorly processed poorly processed datadata..

©ИЭА


The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science.The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science.

©ИЭА

KyotoKyoto’’s economic rationale s economic rationale ––


©ИЭА

Economic growth and energy consumptionare strongly correlated.

Energy consumption andEnergy consumption and GDP growth in GDP growth in 124 124 countries,countries, 19921992--19991999

Source: World Resources Institute, IMF.

y = 0,85x + 2,11R2 = 0,75

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Ln (Energy consumption, mln toe)

Ln (G

DP,

$ B

n)

©ИЭА

Energy consumption and CO2 emissionsare strongly correlated.

Energy consumption andEnergy consumption and СОСО22 emissions in emissions in 124 124 countries,countries, 19921992--19991999

Source: World Resources Institute, International Energy Agency.

y = 0,09x2 + 0,08x + 2,72R2 = 0,81

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Ln (Energy consumption, mln toe )

Ln (С

О2

emis

sion

s, m

ln t)

©ИЭА

Economic growth and CO2 emissionsare strongly correlated.

GDP growth andGDP growth and СОСО22 emissions in emissions in 124 124 countries,countries, 19921992--19991999

Source: International Energy Agency, IMF.

y = 0,92x - 0,33R2 = 0,74

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Ln (GDP, $ Bn)

Ln (С

О2

emis

sion

s, m

ln t)

©ИЭА

Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions are incompatible with GDP growthare incompatible with GDP growth

and wealth accumulation.and wealth accumulation.СОСО22 emission and GDP growth in 39 emission and GDP growth in 39 highhigh--incomeincome countries, 19countries, 199191--20002000

y = 0,49x + 1,83R 2 = 0,64

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8CO2 emissions annual growth rate, %

GD

P an

nual

gro

wth

rate

, %


©ИЭА

Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions are incompatible with GDP growth are incompatible with GDP growth

and poverty reductionand poverty reduction..COCO2 2 emissions and GDP growth in 32 emissions and GDP growth in 32 lowlow--incomeincome countries, 1991countries, 1991--20002000

y = 0,36x + 0,82R 2 = 0,34

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25СО2 emissions annual growth rates, %

GD

P an

nual

gro

wth

rate

s, %


©ИЭА

Limitations in carbon dioxide emissionsLimitations in carbon dioxide emissionsare incompatible with economic growthare incompatible with economic growth

and social progress.and social progress.COCO2 2 emissions and GDP growth in 44 emissions and GDP growth in 44 middlemiddle--incomeincome countries, 1991countries, 1991--20002000

y = 0,55x + 0,71R 2 = 0,67

-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789

-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

CO 2 emissions annual growth rates, %

GD

P an

nual

gro

wth

rate

s, %

Doubling GDP within 10 years

Kyoto 2012 limits

Kyoto 2050 limits

-3,5

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, IMF.

©ИЭА


The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with

economic growth and sustainable development.economic growth and sustainable development.

©ИЭА

Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions are particularly discriminatory are particularly discriminatory

against lowagainst low-- and middleand middle--income economies.income economies.Kuznets curve. GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25GDP per capita by thousands of 1999 PPP US$

(moving average of 25 observations)

СО

2 em

issi

ons

per u

nit o

f GD

P,

mov

ing

aver

age

of 2

5 ob

serv

atio

ns


©ИЭА

Whereas highWhereas high--income countries reduce their COincome countries reduce their CO22 intensity of intensity of GDP as they grow, lowGDP as they grow, low-- and middleand middle--income countries first income countries first

increase COincrease CO22 intensity of GDP as their GDP rises.intensity of GDP as their GDP rises.COCO22 emissions per unit of GDP in lowemissions per unit of GDP in low--, middle, middle--

and highand high--income countries by decades, 1950income countries by decades, 1950--20002000

0,13

0,33

0,68

0,18

0,37

0,69

0,21

0,42

0,65

0,22

0,440,49

0,24

0,480,43

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

Low-income countries(GDP per capita

less than 5000 US$)

Middle-income countries(GDP per capita

between 5000 and 13000 US$)

High-income countries(GDP per capita

more than 13000 US$)

CO

2 Em

issi

ons,

kg

of C

O2 p

er $

of G

DP

by P

PP

1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000


©ИЭА

Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions are particularly discriminatoryare particularly discriminatory

against fastagainst fast--growing economies.growing economies.COCO22 emissions per unit of GDPemissions per unit of GDP

in fastin fast-- and slowand slow--growing middlegrowing middle--income countries (1950=100%)income countries (1950=100%)

Average

Fast-growing

Slow-growing

100

120

140

160

180

200

22019

50

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Inde

x (1

950=

100%

)


©ИЭА


The Kyoto Protocol is particularly The Kyoto Protocol is particularly

discriminatory against lowdiscriminatory against low-- and middleand middle--income income

economies.economies.

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is penalizing The Kyoto Protocol is penalizing the best growth performers in the EU.the best growth performers in the EU.

The projected gap in 2010 between the EU Member StatesThe projected gap in 2010 between the EU Member States’’ Kyoto commitmentsKyoto commitmentsand their total projected emissions and their total projected emissions ““under existing policies.under existing policies.””

Gap of the Base (1990) year, %

37,833,3

26,8 24,5 22,916,5 14,0 12,1 10,7 10,2 9,5 7,5 5,6

1,3

-1,4 -3,3-10

0

10

20

30

40

50D

enm

ark

Spai

n

Irela

nd

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Finl

and

Portu

gal

Net

herla

nds

Gre

ece

Italy

Fran

ce EC

Luxe

mbo

urg

Ger

man

y

UK

Swed

en

Source: Commission of the European Communities, Report from the Commission under Council Decision 93/389/EEC as amended by Decision 99/296EC for a monitoring mechanism of Community greenhouse gas emissions. COM(2003) 735 final. Brussels, 28.11.2003, p. 12.

©ИЭА

Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions in developed Limitations in carbon dioxide emissions in developed economies are associated with slow GDP growth and economies are associated with slow GDP growth and slow progress in reduction of COslow progress in reduction of CO22 intensity of GDP.intensity of GDP.


Annual average growth rates:CO2 emissions, 1997-2001 GDP, 1997-2003 CO2 intensity of GDP, 1997-2001

0,3

1,9

-1,2

1,8

3,3

-1,6

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

per c

ent

17 Pro-Kyoto Developed Economies (EU15, Canada, Japan)

11 Non-Kyoto Developed Economies (USA, Australia, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Israel,Mexico, Cyprus, Malta, Puerto-Rico)

©ИЭА


The Kyoto Protocol is ineffective in achievingThe Kyoto Protocol is ineffective in achieving

higher economic efficiency as measured by a higher economic efficiency as measured by a

reduction in COreduction in CO22 intensity of GDP.intensity of GDP.

©ИЭА

D (7,2%)C (6,7%)

B (6,2%)

Actual emissions

A (5,0%)Index (1990=100%)

E (9,0%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

20

CO

2 em

issi

on in

dex

(199

0=10

0%)

RussiaRussia’’s s СОСО22 emission will exceed emission will exceed the 1990 level in 2007the 1990 level in 2007--2012.2012.

COCO22 emissions emissions (1990=100%):(1990=100%): actualactual in in 19901990--2003 2003 and forecasts forand forecasts for 20042004--20202020

KP first phase

Projected emissions accordingto forecasts of GDP growth:

©ИЭА

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

20

CO

2 em

issi

on in

dex

(199

0=10

0%)

Forecast B (6,2%)

Kyoto-2050 limitsActual emissions

Russia's Kyoto Cross.Russia's Kyoto Cross.Under the Kyoto Protocol, after 2010 Russia will be a buyer,Under the Kyoto Protocol, after 2010 Russia will be a buyer,

not a seller of COnot a seller of CO22 quotas.quotas.RussiaRussia’’ss actual COactual CO22 and forecasted emissions, and Kyoto limits for Russia (1and forecasted emissions, and Kyoto limits for Russia (1stst and next phase)and next phase)

Kyoto-2012 limits

Russia as seller Russia as buyer

KP first phase

Kyoto-2010 limits

©ИЭА


The Kyoto Protocol is harmful for economic The Kyoto Protocol is harmful for economic

growth in Russia.growth in Russia.

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is supported The Kyoto Protocol is supported by a minority of countries.by a minority of countries.The world majority (178 countries out of 210, or 85%)The world majority (178 countries out of 210, or 85%)did not adopt Kyoto Protocol limits on COdid not adopt Kyoto Protocol limits on CO22 emissions.emissions.

Share of the UNFCCC Annex B countries in the world aggregatesShare of the UNFCCC Annex B countries in the world aggregates

30,0

37,4

13,1

25,4

32,7

11,6

20,9

28,4

10,4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

perc

ent

1990 2000 2010Share of global CO2 emissions

Share of global GDP Share of globalpopulation


©ИЭА


The Kyoto Protocol is The Kyoto Protocol is notnot universal.universal.

It is supported by the worldIt is supported by the world’’s minority.s minority.

©ИЭА

ItIt’’s impossible to switch away from s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbons to another energy base hydrocarbons to another energy base

in a short period of time.in a short period of time.World energy consumption by source of origin, 2000World energy consumption by source of origin, 2000

Source: World Resources Institute.

©ИЭА


From an economic point of view,From an economic point of view,

the Kyoto system of mandatory restrictions the Kyoto system of mandatory restrictions

and penalties is an Orwellian nightmare.and penalties is an Orwellian nightmare.

©ИЭА

-12,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,041

540

138

637

235

734

332

831

429

928

527

025

624

122

721

219

818

316

915

414

012

511

1 96 82 67 53 38 24 9


Tem

pera

ture

, o С

Civilization emerged only during the last 12,000 year-long global warming

which followed 107,000 year-long ice age.Temperature variability over last 415 000 years.

Source: Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis M., Delague G., DelmotteM., Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.Ya., Lorius C., Pepin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, vol. 399, N 6735, 3 June 1999, pp. 429-436.

©ИЭА

Global temperature was above its current level for only 58 thousand years out of the last 415 thousand years (for 14% of this period).

Global temperature was lower than its current levelfor 357 thousand years out of the last 415 thousand years (for 86% this period).

Global temperature last peaked 9,000 years ago, and then embarked on a long-term downward trend.

©ИЭА

Mortality is sensitive to air temperature.Mortality is sensitive to air temperature.RussiaRussia’’s mortality seasonal deviations,s mortality seasonal deviations, 19971997--20032003

1,4

1,0

0,4

0,0

0,1

-0,4 -0,5

-1,4

-0,6

0,0-0,3

0,4

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

Dea

ths

per 1

000

popu

latio

n

Source: Goskomstat RF.

©ИЭА

According to the Kyoto Protocol, national and supranational bureaucratic monsters must be created.

They will ration emissions and therefore economic activity worldwide.

The fate of countries, industries, companies, and ultimately individuals around the world will depend on them.

©ИЭА

FINAL CONCLUSION:

Kyoto-ism is the most broad-based,

the most intrusive and the most aggressive

assault on basic human freedoms

since the collapse of fascism and communism.

the kyoto protocol: an assault on science, economic growth

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