The Last Lecture

outline

• Exam• Review– Cases– Readings– themes

• Final words

Key elements

• Forces at work framework• Institutions and governance• Interest Groups• First Nations• International Context• US Influence• Policy Cycle

– Policy Formulation– Decision-making and Policy

Design– Implementation

• New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy

• Comparisons

• Cases– Mountain Pine Beetle– Midterm timber supply– tenure– Great Bear Rainforest– Forest carbon– Forest practices

regulation

November 24, 2014 3

Final Exam X Celebration of Learning• December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC

1005

• 2 hour exam

• All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward

• Responsible for themes for whole course (final list discussed in class Thursday)

• Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from decision-making (October 28) forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle

4

Final Exam X Celebration of Learning

• December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC 1005

• 2 hour exam

• All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward

• Responsible for themes for whole course (final list discussed in class Thursday)

• Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from decision-making (October 28) forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle

• George Office hours– Today 1-2– Monday, Tuesday 10-

12; 1-3

• Gabrielle Office hours– Today 12:30 - 3pm– Friday 10am - 1pm

5

readings1. Benjamin Cashore, George Hoberg,

Michael Howlett, Jeremy Rayner, and Jeremy Wilson, In Search of Sustainability, pp. 3-7, 17, 20-29 (reading packet)

2. Marty Luckert, David Haley, and George Hoberg, Policies for Sustainably Managing Canada’s Forests, pp. 97-102

3. Forest Practices Board, A Decade in Review: Observations on Regulation of Forest and Range Practices in British Columbia,

4. David Weimer and Aidan Vining, Policy Analysis: Concepts and Practice, pp. 274-280. (reading packet)

5. Karen Price, Audrey Roburn, Andy MacKinnon, “Ecosystem-based management in the Great Bear Rainforest”

6. Auditor General of BC, An Audit of Carbon Neutral Government, March 2013, Note: you are responsible for the general issues and the details of the Darkwoods case, but not responsible for the details of the Encana case.

7. Constance McDermott, et al Global Environmental Forest Policies: An International Comparison, Chapter 3, “Canada and the United States.”

8. Marty Luckert, David Haley, and George Hoberg, Policies for Sustainably Managing Canada’s Forests, Chapter 6

Analytical Framework: Forces at work in natural resources policy

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environment

governance

markets

policies

actions

Consequences

• Biophysical characteristics• Resource characteristics

• who decides• who participates• at what level

• Prices• Exchange rates• Supply and demand• Trade restrictions

Institutions and Governance• Policies are produced through governance processes, influenced by

environment and markets.• Governance addresses who decides, who participates, at what level

of government, and with which instruments. • Canadian forest policy is dominated by the provincial level of

government. • BC’s government is dominated by the executive, particularly the

premier. • Courts have played a limited role in forest policy, with the exception

of Aboriginal issues, because of the discretionary nature of BC statutes.

• Institutional design matters because the balance of preferences may change as the location of authority changes

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Actors: Strategies and Resources

• Actors in the policy process have interests and resources, and adopt strategies designed to best use those resources in pursuit of their interests

• Politicians are primarily driven by electoral incentives, making public opinion a significant constraint on government action

• Business control over investment gives it a structural advantage

• Public opinion is far more influential on policy makers when it is salient

• Environmentalists have effectively used market-oriented strategies to increase their power

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First Nations

• First Nations have effectively used the courts to increase their power

• The BC government has undergone a profound shift in relations towards First Nations, from active repression through resistance and now apparently sincere efforts at reconciliation

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International Influences

• Changes in international markets and technology have undercut BC’s comparative advantage

• A combination of globally valued resources and reliance on trade makes BC highly vulnerable to international influences

• Certification has increased the influence of private standard-setting organizations but there is little evidence of on-the-ground impacts

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US Influence

• US trade pressures have pushed costs up and constrained BC’s policy sovereignty.

• BC’s market-oriented forest policy reforms were strongly influenced by trade pressures by the United States

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5 stage Policy Cycle Model

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Agenda-Setting

Policy Formulation

Decisionmaking

Policy Implementation

Monitoring and Evaluation

Policy CycleAgenda-setting

• Issues get on the government agenda through a confluence of problem and politics streams

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Policy CyclePolicy Formulation

• Policy formulation involves both “thinking” (analysis) and “talking” (consultation with stakeholders)

• The best argument explicitly addresses an opponents’ strongest claim and addresses it with evidence and reason

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Policy Cycle:Decision-making

• Because of the challenges to conflict resolution, policy is often made without clarifying objectives

• Because of limited resources, rational decision-making is usually not feasible

• A major challenge for forest policy making is designing policies to accommodate spatial diversity

• Forest practices regulation in BC relies on a combination of vague performance objectives, practice requirements, and planning requirements. In comparative terms, BC’s regulatory framework is highly stringent.

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Implementation Challenges

• There is a tension between factors for success in decision-making (agreement) and implementation (clarity and specificity)

• The meaning is in the detail: it is impossible to understand how policy affects the distribution of values without understanding the details of policy design and implementation.

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Emerging Values: Carbon, Bio-energy

• BC’s forests can potentially contribute to greenhouse gas reductions, but immense complexity and uncertainty make effective and efficient policy design very difficult

• Forest bioenergy in BC is likely to be a significant, economical source of energy only as a residual product of the forest sector.

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Comparative context

• In comparative context, BC forest policy is relatively distinct in a number of ways, among them: a high level of government ownership, the limited role for the federal government, and a focus on natural forest management in old growth forests.

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From next Tuesday

• Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.

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Key elements

• Forces at work framework• Institutions and governance• Interest Groups• First Nations• International Context• US Influence• Policy Cycle

– Policy Formulation– Decision-making and Policy

Design– Implementation

• New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy

• Comparisons

• Cases– Mountain Pine Beetle– Midterm timber supply– tenure– Great Bear Rainforest– Forest carbon– Forest practices

regulation

November 24, 2014 21

Closing thoughts

• The meaning is in the detail

Last word: Critical Thinking• Complexity• Facts and values• Steps:

– Identify argument– Values underlying– Facts

• Be respective of value differences– Be conscious of “motivated

reasoning”

• Mobilize evidence• Persuasion requires appealing

to their values

Steps in Policy Analysis• Define problem• Criteria for evaluation• Identify multiple

alternatives• Outcomes/consequences

of alternatives• Compare/tradeoff• Recommended decision