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    market. The diverse programs and proposals for training/retratntng-c-frorn JTPA to Pat Choate's ITA-founder on

    the inability of the individual worker/student to linklearning to earning, that Is, to build a bridge betweeneducation or trauuru; and real employment opportunities,

    The principal public agency devoted to serving thisneed. the Employment Service. "has gained the reputationin many quarters since the mid-Bus of being a labor ex-change for the lowest-paid and the highest-turnoverjobs, , , , Actually, 38 percent of the new permanent joborders listed with the Employment Service are designatedas low-skill. low-status occupations by the Department ofLabor; "fl;) What we need, instead, says Lawrence Vickery ofGeneral Motors, is "some kind of surveillance system thatshows jobs that do exist. where Liley exist and when are(other.s) going to be available, "H4

    T o be fully effective, the learning enterprise must beable to provide the consumer-s-both the employer and theindividual worker-with sufficient information to know: What an' the learn ing requirements of not only existing

    but future occupattons? What is the competitive environment for a particular

    occupation (that is, how many and what kind otpeoplearc pursuing the same career path)'?

    What learning products. technologies, and services areavailable?

    What is the expected return on specific investments intratnmj; and cducat ion '?

    What and where arc the real opportunities for employ-men t '?

    The same kind of information is critical to the sup-pliers of products and services for t he adult learning mar-IH't to develop their bustness plans. to at tract Investment.and to meet customers' demands, This tnformat ion dot'snot now exist ill a form that can be used by the ('(HlSUI11CrSand supplie-rs who IHTd n.

    Limned ResourcesFtnally, anv pract Iral solut ions to t 11('probk-ms ol' hu-

    man capital. adult learrunu. and ('('()nol1li(' ck-velopnn-nt-c-

    . '''f

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    the problems of the four Fs=-must recogntze the (:011-stratnts of an era of ltnuts. The U.S, govcrnment is facedwith ballooning deficits and is in no condition to take onmassive new fiscal burdens, American industry, hectoredby ever more intense toretgn competition. has made pro-ductivity and cftlctcncy its new watchwords, These trendshave led to new more pragmatic thrusts in policy thtnktna. an interest in containing the ~).owth of government. in

    deregulating several industries, and in privatizingsome public services:

    a concern for increasing the efficiency and productivityof both public and private enterprises:

    a desire to reduce dependency and to increase local andindividual self-reliance:

    a broad sentiment in favor of partnership. both amonggovernmcnt entities (for example. the Reagan admin-istrations New Federalism Initiative) and between pub-lic and private institutions:

    a movement toward entrepreneurial management inboth private and public organizations:., a popular antipathy for bureaucracy and "red tape":

    and a tasctnat ion with high-technology tools-computers,

    telecornmuntcattons. robotics, and so forth.The concept of the learning enterprise itself is a way of

    accommodating solutions of the human capital crtsts tothe reality of limned resources by ernphastztng technologi-cal mnovat ion. productivity. private ini t Iat tve. competi-tion, entrepreneurship. and a primary focus on the needsof the learning consumer.

    America is now spending 8100 billion to 8200 billionor even more each year on adult learning of various kinds.DOD spends about S18 btllion a year on formal trainingand education: a large portion of the total defense budgetrepresents the cost of on-going military training.

    There is no shortage of total resources available foradult learning. Resolving our human capital crisis doesnot necessarily require more resources. Rather, the re-sources already invested in learning need to be allocatedmore efficiently, more drcet lvely, and in some cases moreequitably.

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    Tim 1.~Al~NINGENTEIWlUSI!:

    What Must Be Done

    An economy undergoing irresistible structural trans-formation contains the threat of severe human capitalcrisis and painful social upheaval. A national effort isneeded to crystalllze public awareness and concern and tomobilize support for action to transform this crisis intoan opportunity. With the cooperation of business. govem-ment , nonprofit organizations. associations. and others.the learning enterprise must and can become the backboneindustry of a new. fourth sector of the modern economy.

    In general. we must work to attack the barriers de-scribed above: remedy gaps and deficiencies in existingpolictes: educate the public to overcome popular miscon-ceptions about the increasingly critical role of adult learn-in~ in economic development: develop better informationabout all key aspects of the emerging learning enterprise:and find solutions that make minimal demands on lim-ited public and private resources.

    Of these. the first objecuve should be to develop betterinformation about the learning enterprise in a form thatprovides a comprehensive map-the big picture-of theadult learning system. including supply and demand.public and private. formal and nonformal. proprietary andnonprofit. institutional and individual. traditional andemerging elements. This mapping of the system isurgently needed by:

    extsung and prospective suppliers who need to knowmore about the needs. demands. and technologies oflearning markets;

    consumers who need better information about the op-tions available to meet learning needs; and

    public and private polirymakers. as a basis for devisingpolicies that remove barriers and provide low-cost.cfttctent stimulation to the growth of the lear ntngenterprise.

    Of course. gathering more Information about thelearntng enterprise will not. alone. provide sufftcient im-petus for change. Adetailed plan of action demands morerigorous research and analysis than this exploratory studyhas been able to provide. But t he following options foraction are at least worth thinking about.

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    NI!:~lJs

    HedtKe emphasis on academic degrees. There is noJob in this economy that requires an academic degree forits effective performance. Demanding academic rreden-ttals as a condition of employment only serves as a barrierto competition. both in the job market and in the learningmarket. Fortunately. the trend in recent years has been furmore employers to include the phrase "or equivalent"when menttontng degree requirements in their job requi-sitions. The result of the proltferatton of degree grantingand the decline of academtc standards is that a diploma.even from an allegedly "top" institution. by Itself tells an

    employer next to nothing about individual competence.Focus on evaluation oj cOT11petcmcy and achieve-

    ment. The efficiency of the learning market depends onthe ability of the consumer-whether individual or em-ployer-to measure the value of the products and servicesoffered by vendors. What needs to be measured is the com-petence and achievement resulting from learning. Evalua-tions administered by vendors themselves are mevttablyhandicapped by a contltct of interest. We need more andbetter independent testing and evaluation services-suchas the Educational Testing Service-to assess the produc-tivity and competitiveness of the learning process.

    Expand U&D and technology transfer: A larger andmore focused investment is warranted in basic R&D incognitive science and learning technology. Much of theresearch now going on in artiftctal intelligence and relateddomains of computer -ctence is relevant to learning butneeds to be applied more explicitly to human learningneeds. Much research is focused on childhood learningand development: adult learning and development is qual-itatively different and demands at least an equal invest-ment of research effort.

    DOD is the major source of support for research inartificial intelligence and advanced computer technology:DOD also is the major developer and user of learntng tech-

    nology. Although some will debate whether DOD should bethe focal }otnt for this work. the important need is totransfer DOD's technical knowledue and resources foradult learning to the civilian learning industry. To itscredit. the department has been actively supporting suchtransfer. What may be needed is a complementary effort

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    from outside of DOD--a collaborative venture of learningproviders. consumers. associations. etc.-to identify whatDOD has to offer and to accelerate its dissemination in thecivilian economy.

    Develop human capital investment advisory ser-vices. To the extent that we have better intelligence aboutfuture demands for human capital. our investments inhuman capital development arc likely to be more produc-tive. Current job forecasts clearly do not adequately ac-count for technological and other environmental changes.Actually. predicting future jobs is almost impossible. and

    is not particularly relevant to human capital investmentdecisions. What would be somewhat easter, and more use-ful. is to tdenttty how specific areas of knowledge and skillcompare In terms of expected benefits and risks. The needis not so much for bet ter official forecasts as it Is for amore robust supply of advisory services.

    People who are buying real estate 01' Investing in stockfind an enormous social infrastructure-brokers. law-

    yers. accountants.books.

    newsletters. seminars. financialinstitutions. govt'rnment regulators. consumer groups-ready and eager to help them get a rewarding return onthat kind of investment. By contrast. the sources we canturn to for advice on an investment in our personal hu-man capital arc less abundant and less sophisticated.With over 8100 billion (perhaps over 8200 billion) beingspent annually in the U.S. on adult learntng, developingadvisory services for human capual tnvestors (100 millionor more people) would seem to be a golden opportunity foren trepreneu rs.

    Focus lelernatlcs industry products and services onlite adult learning market. A number of companies intelecommuntcattons, computers. and software have be-gun to pursue educut ion as an attractive market. Bu tmany of these new entrants to the learning industry havebeen concentrating on products and services for childrenrather than for adults. The adult market is actually alarger and more lucrauve one for new venturers in thelearning enterprise.

    Though the amount of money devoted to elementary/scr : -lary education seems large. most of it is tied up inrn l' .. tions-part tcularly for bu ildi ngs and salaries-and

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    NElms

    is not available for dtscrettonary purchases from privatevendors. There are only a few thousand schools in thecountry. and st'lling to them is difficult.

    The adult learning market is over $100 billion a year,The majortty of the market is non-Institutional. For themost part. adult learning is purchased by the consumer(in contrast to childhood education. which is purchasedby someone else 011 behalf of the consumcr.) The demandfor adult learning products and services is substantial. itis here now. and it is ~rowing as the baby boomers age. ascareer transitions become more frequent. and as the dis-

    tribution of employment In the economy shifts towardknowledge work and training-intensive industries.Uevise the ftnanctnq q{ human capital. Within the

    generally confused social contract concerning human cap-ital. the area most urgently dernandtna attention is fi-nance. We need to rethink the means for financing humancapital development and the resulting dlstrtbut ton of ben-efits. costs. and obligations. U.S. tax laws already favorphysical capital over human capital development; a tax billrecently passed by Congress would further reduce the In-centives for investment In training and education. Al-though Pat Choate's ITA proposal may not be perfect.among its most commendable features is the linkage ofsavings to human capital investment. This is an impor-tant shift away from entitlements and borrowing as majormechanisms for ttnanctna adult training and education.The overall problem is complex, and deserves the serious

    attention of public and prtvate policy analysts.Hetltink. This exploratory study necessarily raises

    more questions than It answers. Its immediate goal Is toprovoke serious reexarrunat ion of the crit k..al role of adultlearning in a changing economy

    Government leaders need to rethink many of thetr ex-isting poltctes concerning education. training. economicdevelopment. ami human capital. St ues in part tcular are

    likely to find literally dozens of state polictes having animpact on adult learning-accrediting and operating in-stitutions. ltcenstnu professions. providing financial ald.administering tests, and so forth. This reexaminationshould Iorus Oil finding ways to accele-rate the maturationof the adult il'arning market. and to increase cornpet it ion.

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    Tin: 1.I~AI~NIN(i E.!,;TEHI'I~ISI!:

    Managers. workers. and owners in both private andpublic organtzauons need to rethink the social contractsurrounding the human capital they employ

    Finally. people in the myriad businesses that con-stitute the learning Industry need to adopt a broad visionof their cconoiruc role. and must take the lead In buildingthe learning enterprise our whole society so urgentlyrequires.

    The learn ing en terprtse Is not a panacea for all the illsof an economy in transition. But it is an essenttal lubrtcantfor the wheels of change. The good news is that the sametelemattc technology that is causing economic upheavalcan cncnnze the learntng process that the transformationdemands. In the words of the philosopher Pogo. we seemto be confronted with an "insurmountable opportunity."

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    Nones

    NOTES

    I, !'aul K Barton, \\'orkl{/I> '/hl1l~III()1(s: Till' Adult 1.((lnlillfl ('CJ1IlIt'C-lioll (New Yo~l{: M(,(jn.lwHiII. HlH2J, p,lOu,

    2, P I>nl('kt'I', "quality Edul'alioll: The I'Il'\\' Growth Era," \Vetil Stre('tJou1'1Iai July W, 19Ha.

    3. !'al Choate. U('to()lillfj /11(' I\lII('ri('(l1I W()rk/ilrn': Tou-art! (l Ncl/iOlletlTraillill9 SlrcI/C'm1 (Washillgroll, IK': Nortlu-ast-Mtdwest lnst lt ute.Jill.\' IHH2 t, p.l.

    4, "For Americans Unnble to I{('ad Well, LlII' Is a SNil'S of Small Crtses."Wall S/r('('1 .JollrTI(l1 January 17, IBH4.

    5. ibid.

    6, Basi: Skills til til!' U.S. Work Forco (j\;('\\' York: l'('1I11'r lor PublicH('SOl I rn's , Fehruarv, IUH:L

    7. Lenore Salt mau. DOD.

    H. A II I(.'riCCl :.. ('()lIIfJ(litil( (,11(I1l(II~II.': TIl(' ' \ ;ctcl.1ilr Cl ,\'((liOIlCIi RcSP01lse': A Rcpon III tile' 1'1'('siel('111 c!1 III(' 11llilf'cl SICII('S ./mll! /Ii('HIISill(sslIi,c/ller Education FO,.1I11I IWashin!.tlon. 1)(': BIiSilll"'-;s-

    Hight'l" Educat lnn Forum, April IUH:3J,p.11.9. Ciloalt'. RC'100lill!/, p.2,

    10, llourino CHI ' / i 'dI1l010H!1 (lOci !.;1IIplll!l1llC',Il, Subromruttux- Oil S('I-('11('(', Hrs('ar('h ami lh jllloIOl'\'V nlIlu- Seil'III'(' alld n'dl!!olol..\,v Com-nutu-c. and Task For('t' lin Edurattun and Euiploymout III Ill!' BlIdg('1Comuum-e. U.S, Hous or H('PI"t'~(IIIClliV(s. JlIlH' 72:1. 1!IH:i,

    II. Harton. Work/1ft ' Tm1lsiliolll'. p.74.

    12, "Trends: 'li:lllpillg Toduv," Wlls/tiTH/loll P(JSI ,)allllal)' :i I, 1~)H4,

    I;!. "('Ult ini.! Elllplo~'IIH'III: Wlrat E:\pITI~ Would 1)0," US NI'Il's &. WorldRi-pon SepII'llIlll'I"!l. IlJH:1.

    14. U .S. 01111"1' oJ 'lh'II!IIlIOI!~' A!'>S(~SlllllIl. lntoruuu uina! 1('c/lllOlocl!1wlCllIs Impel!'1 Oil I\11Il 'rinl1l I-:clw(l/itl li. UTA( TI~IH7 1\\'aslrillgIOII.1)('; UIA 1'\0\"1'1111)('1" HlH21. p.IOo.

    I:>. AI-'I.('IO ('(1111111 i lIel' 011 till' Evolutioll (II Wor k , Tlu: Flllllfl' o! l'\'orktW;lslliul!l()lI. rx ': 1\1'(.('10. AIIl!lIS( I!JH:n p.H.

    1 b. Stl'\'I'1I Flax. "l'a~' ('Ills Ikflln' IIII' Joh Even St arts." FOr/IIIII' .JillIlIal)'9. JHH4.

    17. "!\!o!"t ("OIIITrll ... Set '1\\'0'1'11'1" ParI., With l!1I101l .... POl;nll.ill1! 1'\('\\'lim'..,. "Willi Slrt'('I./OllfliU/I>t'I'('1!I111'1' I ! > . 1!IH:1.

    IH. Anrhon,: I' ("anll'\';IIt' ;I:tcl Harold (;ol

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    TIIl~ LEAI~NINli ENT~HI'WSE

    1B, "\Val'l1lll~s of a Lawyer Glut Are Sounded at ABA Conventton." Wnshill~lon Post .July 31. Im 'l:3.

    20, "For Doctors. 'loo, It's a Surplus:' US News & World Report Decem-bel' 19, 1983,

    21. "COIllPlItt'I'S Arc Transformtnu Tradtttous of Law Profession," WallSlreet Journal August 19, 1983.

    22, "Wl'lghing the impact of the electronic chip on joblessness." Business Week November 7, 1983.

    23, "A spark of militancy In the land of loyalty," Business Week Septern-her 5, 1983.

    21. Davtd Birch, In Ueartnu un 'i'cchnoluyy and Employment.

    25. AFLCIO, Future q( Work, p.12.

    26. David Blrch. ill lleartnq 011 nxhllolo9!1 allci Employment.

    27. AfLCIO, Future q(Work, p.12,

    28. Heartnqs Ull 1eclillolu~m and Emp/oumenl.

    29, l'homasJ. Moon', "Tinker. Tatlor, Waitress. Clerk: Is It Worthwhile toGo to Colle~{")," Washillf/loli Post October 23, 1983.

    30. Moore. "Ttnker, 'Iatlor, ... '': "More U.S. Aid Souuht to Stop 'Erostun'of Grad-School Quality," Washington Post D('{'C'lIIbC'r 13. 1983,

    :11. Bob Kuttner, "The D('{'lillln,g Middle." Allanlic Montllly July 19H3:"Many .Junr Graduates ArC' Still Hunung for a First Career Job."Wall Slr('(>1 Juurnal October IH, 1983: Russell Rumberger, In Hear-illfiS on T('clJnolo~1!JWid Emptoument: Moore, "T'Inker; Tailor, ... ":"More U.S. Aid Sought ... ," Washillglon PUSl December 13, lY83.

    :12. lt htel de Sola Pool. '''Il'al'kill,l.! the Flow of Information," SCience Au-gust 12. IBH3.

    3a . OITicC' 01 the Assistant S{'('rt'tal)' for Educauonal H('St'(IITh aud (III'

    provemcnt. Complllers III I::dIICCJliOII: H('cliiy.ill!1 1/1(' Potentia!IWasil IlI,1.!toll.DC: U.S. l repartrucnt of Educauon. .Junv 19H:n p.~).

    :\4, Hearinqs Oil Ted II 10 IO[/!Ialld Emplo!lllll'III.

    :\!). 01'A, lq/iJrnlClli()/wl 'l('dllwl(l~I!I. p.U;l.

    au . u.s. Dept. of Ed .. ('UlIlplII('rs ill EdllCClliolt. p. W.37. Jillllt'S Brunn. "Educut ton (jot'S 011 tilt, 5-'ahlr Plan." PC MCl{jCl;t.illt'

    March 20. W M4.

    aH, Rnhard M. Cver t , "Personal COIIIIHllillg ill Eclu('utioll and Re-

    seurth," 5cil'/If'l' November II, WH:\: "( 'artlcgl('Ml'llol1 FacultySrun-hcs for Ways to USl' Small Computers III tilt, l.therul Arts." W(lilSIrt'('1 JOllrIJn/.Jullt' 2H. IHH;1.

    :\B, "Courses III Computer l.tterury Bt'gilH1ll1~ to Draw Bad Marks," Wull511"('('r .JolirnClI Septemher 16, I ~'H:\.

    40. Jot'! ()rt'yfuss, "What Will St'nd tht' Compuu-r Honu-." I-ilrllllll' April2. mH4.

    60I.... _

    '_ ,

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    6B. "Wal..!l'Study Doesn't Find H 2Tlrr Sortetv," \\-nshll1gtol1 Post April!.19M.

    70. BLS Bulletin 2121. WH2.

    71. tbut.

    72, Marvin ,J . ('('11'011. "Getting Heady for t lit' Jobs of the Fut ure." 'rileFutunst .June WH~~.

    73. Kuttner, "D'('IIIl IIl~ Middle." p.67.

    74. Letter; \\-all Slr('el Journal All~IIS' :3 . Hl~3.

    '15. J. Weaver. Small Busrncss Admnustrauon.

    76. D. Y..inkelovk-h and J. Imrnewalu. Puuinq 1/1(.' Work Ethic tn Work

    (Nt'\\! York: The Publu- Agl'II(la Foundat ion. WH:H77. "Wharton Students 'luke a Long 'lrtp on the Fast Road to Success,"

    Wasltlll9lolll'os/ March 26. 1984.

    7H. V W . Seidel and R Seidel. eels" H(:r()rnlitl~J MediCI nc: Lessons ottiiel.ast quarrel' Centuru (Nt'w York: Pantheon, 1984): Edward D. Mar-tin. MD. Dtrertor, Bureau of Health Can' Delivery and Assistnncc,Health HCSOllITI'S and Services Administration, "Statemcnt't beforethe Subcomm I IIl'(' on EIl(I'.ltv. Nuclear Proliterauon and GovernmentProcesst-s of ,11(' U.S. S('mltt' Comnntte on Governmental Affairs.April 12, 19H4.

    78. Bartoli. Work/!Ii.' 1'mlisillOllS, p.15,

    HO. ibul., p.14.

    ~ I. Curnevak: and Goldsu-tn, f:l1Iplo!lt't' 'j'ruillill{J.

    H2. tbu! .. p.:~H.

    HJ. Hrynu Slion- Fraser. 1 ' 1 1 < ' SI rllC't II '1 , orlldll/t l.earnitv), Eduratton,(IIld TraillillH Oppol'tllllil!1 ill tlu: Ulllt('(i .stCl!(,S IWashltlgtoll. 1)(':Nanouul lusruut for \Vorl( and I.lal'llillg. WHC), p.5.

    H4. illici.H5, Barron. V .'ork/!lI' "I'm IIsil iOlls.

    HH. il1i(/ .. p.ll.

    H 7.... Facts' I'u t ,Jolls :\1h"ioll 1111 II II' Li 11('." \\'w .. I! irl9toll J 'ost i\t"I'\'i1 :W,IHH4.

    HH. Hal'lOIl. \\.'mldl/f' '/'mllslluHls. pp. )(}!)!l.

    H!l. IiJicl.. p.IO I.

    !IO. i / J l C I . . (>.102-

    \II. OTA. /T!/IJrlIIIIIICJllfd '/(o('hIl0/0I/Ij. p.Iz.

    n~. tim/ .. p.111H:i. Bal'lllll. \\'or/dl/I' '/'((111 ....1/11111.... p.!);).

    !Jt. .Jo.urn S. l.uhltu. "l low III I kip 'J)',,>pld('c'd \\"rkcr..... ." \\'(11/ Street. /OIWW/ ,JIlI\ 2\J. I\JK:~.

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    BIBLIOGRAPHY

    AFt-CIO Commit te e 011 the Evolut ion of Work (19H:n TIl(! Futureqf Work (Washington. DC.). August.

    A Report to the Prestdent of the United States from the Business-Hlgl1r Education Forum (IBH3). America:-; ConipetiuoeCnallonue: Tlu: Needfor a Nattonat Response (Washington.DC.). April.

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