The Likud’s Return to Power

ByDoron Shultziner, Emory

University

Likud’s Success Puzzle, 1977-2009 Likud won 7 out of 11 elections since 1977 Likud members held the position of Prime

Minister for over 21 years 24 years counting Olmert

Likud made a comeback in the 2009 elections from 12 to 27 seats

The 17th Knesset elections, 2006

Labor 19Likud 12Meretz

5Hadash 3

UTJ 6

Shas 12

Ra’amTa’al 4

Balad 3

Kadima 29

Right wing 50Left wing 34

Israel our Home 11

Religious Bloc 27

Center 36

Gil 7

National Union - NRP 9Left & Center 70

The shift to the right in elections 2009

Labor 19Likud 12Meretz

5Hadash 3

UTJ 6

Shas 12

Ra’amTa’al 4

Balad 3

Kadima 29Israel our Home 11

Religious Bloc 27

Gil 7

National Union - NRP 9

-8

-8

+15

+1 +4

-4

The 18th Knesset elections, February 2009

Labor 13Likud 27

Meretz 3

HADASH 4

UTJ 5

Shas 11

Ra’amTa’al 4

Balad 3

Kadima 28

Right wing 65Left wing 27

Israel our Home 15

NRP 3

Religious Bloc 23

Left & Center 55

Center 28

National Union 4

Netanyahu’s Coalition 2009

Labor 13Likud 27Meretz

3HADASH 4

UTJ 5

Shas 11

Ra’amTa’al 4

Balad 3

Kadima 28

narrow right wing coalition 61

Israel our Home 15

National Union 4

NRP 3

Religious Bloc 23

Possible ExplanationsGeneral Factors

Anti-establishment spirit

Attentive to marginalized groups

Economic policies: free market

Leadership and open elite

Corruption and Anti-corruption

Ideology Commitment to

Pristine Ideology and pragmatism

Greater Eretz Israel Iron Wall: emphasis on

military power

Israeli-Jewish Group Identity

Social PurposeSocial

PurposeConstitutive NormsConstitutive Norms

Relational Comparis

ons

Relational Comparis

ons

Cognitive Models

Cognitive Models

Unsympathetic or even hostile world (Siege Mentality);Israel is strong but vulnerable

Self-determination; Security;Jewishness

Non-Jews; Hostile Arab neighbors

Heuristics: use strong measures for security; preserve unity

Tapping into Group Heuristics: The Likud’s

Campaigns Categorization

and Stereotypes Monopoly over

security Monopoly over

patriotism Jewish Tradition

Negative Stereotypes of Opponents

Smolani (Pinko or Liberal)

Pro-Concession Pro-Palestinian Weak on Security Self-righteous Unpatriotic Tel-Aviv or Shenkin Anti-religious Latte and Sushi?

Elections 2006:

Smolmert;

Kadima (forward) to the 67’

lines

Elections 2009:

Concessions;

Divide Jerusalem

;Pro-

Palestinian;

Restraint; Weak on Security;Tel Aviv

Categorization and Stereotypes

Campaigns Emphasis on fear and sense of security

“Bibi will unite the people; together we will not be afraid”

“With Tzipi Livni and the Kadima clan, we will not survive”

“Tzipi Livni helped Hamas and Hezbollah get stronger and hurt us – she is not worthy”

Tzipi Livni is “selling us to the Palestinians” and “dangerous the security of Israel”

Patriotism and Unity: “Vote Likud if you are a patriot” Subtext: if you don’t vote Likud you are not a patriot “Likud – we are strong standing united” Likud jingle: “Only one can against all the Left”

When do Likud campaigns succeed?

Violence leads to increased reliance on heuristics of force reliance and preservation of unity

Elections: 1988 (1st Intifada), 1996 (Hamas terrorism), 2001 & 2003 (height of 2nd Intifada) (Berrebi & Klor, APSR 102, 2008)

1992, 1999, and 2006 perceived security was higher

What about the 2009 elections?

Winograd Report

Jan. 2008

Winograd Report

Jan. 2008

Gaza Operation Dec. 2008

Gaza Operation Dec. 2008Tzipi

Livni wins

Kadima Primaries Aug. 2008

Tzipi Livni wins

Kadima Primaries Aug. 2008

Second Lebanon War (July-

August) 2006

Second Lebanon War (July-

August) 2006

Likud’s Splinter Parties