The Limits ManifestoThe Limits ManifestoNo Harm, No Hubris, No No Harm, No Hubris, No

HurryHurryBill VitekBill Vitek

Clarkson UniversityClarkson UniversityJune 19, 2007June 19, 2007

It’s Time To Change Our It’s Time To Change Our MindsMinds

Vital SignsVital Signs End of the World End of the World as We Know Itas We Know It Must Stand Down From Our Must Stand Down From Our

Insatiable Assault on LimitsInsatiable Assault on Limits Must Accept Limits and Their Place Must Accept Limits and Their Place

in Our Livesin Our Lives A Necessary Revolution in EducationA Necessary Revolution in Education A Long ShotA Long Shot

A Failed Mental Model A Failed Mental Model Applied CorrectlyApplied Correctly

Nature as Boundless Source and SinkNature as Boundless Source and Sink Human Mind/Knowledge as SufficientHuman Mind/Knowledge as Sufficient Human Concerns First and ForemostHuman Concerns First and Foremost Transgression of LimitsTransgression of Limits

ScienceScience EngineeringEngineering EconomicsEconomics EthicalEthical

Vital SignsVital Signs

Doomsday clock two minutes Doomsday clock two minutes closer to midnight, “reflecting closer to midnight, “reflecting global failures to solve the global failures to solve the problems posed by nuclear problems posed by nuclear weapons and the climate crisis.”weapons and the climate crisis.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that “there Climate Change states that “there is a 90% chance humans are is a 90% chance humans are responsible for climate change."responsible for climate change."

Vital SignsVital Signs Peak Oil: first trillion barrels consumed in Peak Oil: first trillion barrels consumed in

last 100 years; last trillion barrels in next 30 last 100 years; last trillion barrels in next 30 years. (A 22 year old today has lived through years. (A 22 year old today has lived through a time in which 540 billion barrels of oil has a time in which 540 billion barrels of oil has been consumed…been consumed… ~ 437 trillion lbs of new ~ 437 trillion lbs of new COCO2 2 in the atmosphere).in the atmosphere).

The current rate of species loss is being The current rate of species loss is being compared to the five known mass extinction compared to the five known mass extinction waves. This “sixth wave” is anthrogenic. waves. This “sixth wave” is anthrogenic.

One billion people lack access to fresh water.One billion people lack access to fresh water. Soil destruction now claims 24 million acres Soil destruction now claims 24 million acres

a year world-wide, about half the size of a year world-wide, about half the size of Kansas, a quarter the size of California or 3.5 Kansas, a quarter the size of California or 3.5 Marylands. Marylands.

Vital SignsVital Signs Two of the most populous nations are Two of the most populous nations are

becoming two of the largest economies.becoming two of the largest economies. Human population growth continues to Human population growth continues to

follow an exponential curve. follow an exponential curve. There are currently 27 million slaves in There are currently 27 million slaves in

the world, more than at any other time the world, more than at any other time in human history.in human history.

Eight nations possess nuclear weapons, Eight nations possess nuclear weapons, and two are working to acquire them.and two are working to acquire them.

Problems in Carbon CreekProblems in Carbon Creek

Interconnected Interconnected ““Solutions” often make matters worseSolutions” often make matters worse

Early daylight savings Early daylight savings increased increased energy useenergy use Jevons ParadoxJevons Paradox

The recipe for success is The recipe for success is brokenbroken Unleash human ingenuity Unleash human ingenuity Harness and commodify nature’s immense Harness and commodify nature’s immense

and complex forces (90 million acres of US and complex forces (90 million acres of US corn in ’07)corn in ’07)

Enjoy the new and improved world that Enjoy the new and improved world that results results

RepeatRepeat

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/consumption.html

A Trip To Exponentialville

http://www.oilcrisis.com/midpoint.htm

http://www.whrc.org/carbon/index.htm

http://www.whrc.org/carbon/index.htm

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

http://www.susps.org/overview/numbers.html

http://www.whole-systems.org/extinctions.html

Beyond the Rock is a Hard Beyond the Rock is a Hard PlacePlace

We are nearly at the end of a line of We are nearly at the end of a line of thinking that is no longer thinking that is no longer supportable by the material and supportable by the material and energy conditions upon which it energy conditions upon which it rests.rests.

We need to dismantle the We need to dismantle the worldview worldview that is dismantling the that is dismantling the worldworld..

Changing Our Minds/etChanging Our Minds/et

New Conceptual ModelsNew Conceptual Models New/Old StandardsNew/Old Standards Renewed Respect for Renewed Respect for

BoundariesBoundaries EthicalEthical EpistemologicalEpistemological EcosystemicEcosystemic

Current Worldview Current Worldview AssumptionsAssumptions

Mind-Reality InterfaceMind-Reality Interface Knowledge is PossibleKnowledge is Possible Knowledge is PowerKnowledge is Power Divide and ConquerDivide and Conquer Nature is PassiveNature is Passive The Whole is Equal to the Sum of The Whole is Equal to the Sum of

its Partsits Parts

Assumptions ContinuedAssumptions Continued

Technical and Scientific Technical and Scientific Knowledge are Value FreeKnowledge are Value Free

All Mistakes are FixableAll Mistakes are Fixable ““Cross that bridge when we come Cross that bridge when we come

to it”to it” Knowledge accumulates and Knowledge accumulates and

drives out ignorancedrives out ignorance

Assumptions ChallengedAssumptions Challenged

Nature is not passiveNature is not passive Whole not equal to the sum of the Whole not equal to the sum of the

partsparts Knowledge is not value freeKnowledge is not value free Ignorance increases with increased Ignorance increases with increased

knowledgeknowledge Some mistakes are less fixable than Some mistakes are less fixable than

othersothers Greater Knowledge=Greater Greater Knowledge=Greater

ResponsibilityResponsibility

Manifesto PropositionsManifesto Propositions Provide a foundation for a new and Provide a foundation for a new and

improved way of looking at the world. improved way of looking at the world. Rely on a base of knowledge that Rely on a base of knowledge that

describes the state of the world as we describes the state of the world as we best understand it now.best understand it now.

Suggest a range of choices and actions Suggest a range of choices and actions consistent with this understanding. consistent with this understanding.

Contribute to the process of curtailing Contribute to the process of curtailing the many ailments of our global home the many ailments of our global home and its myriad inhabitants.and its myriad inhabitants.

Manifesto CreedManifesto Creed

““I accept The Limits Manifesto I accept The Limits Manifesto Propositions regarding moral Propositions regarding moral

behavior, the pursuit of behavior, the pursuit of knowledge, and the use of the knowledge, and the use of the earth’s material and energy earth’s material and energy productivity, and I hereby productivity, and I hereby

pledge no harm, no hubris, and pledge no harm, no hubris, and no hurry in my daily thoughts no hurry in my daily thoughts

and actions.”and actions.”

Proposition One: No Proposition One: No HarmHarm

Except for planet Earth, life Except for planet Earth, life seems pretty rare in the seems pretty rare in the universe. Thoughtlessly and universe. Thoughtlessly and willingly destroying it or limiting willingly destroying it or limiting the diversity and co-evolution of the diversity and co-evolution of life, especially at the level of life, especially at the level of species, is a moral wrong among species, is a moral wrong among self-conscious creatures who self-conscious creatures who surely know better by now.surely know better by now.

Proposition Two: No Proposition Two: No HubrisHubris

Human beings are the unintended Human beings are the unintended offspring of evolutionary biology, and offspring of evolutionary biology, and as such lack any special or pre-as such lack any special or pre-ordained tools for divining the world’s ordained tools for divining the world’s inner workings. inner workings.

Closer to our cousin apes than gods in Closer to our cousin apes than gods in all things—and genetically 99.5 percent all things—and genetically 99.5 percent Neanderthal—we should refuse to think Neanderthal—we should refuse to think otherwise. otherwise.

We should behave as if our We should behave as if our ignorance ignorance will always exceed our knowledgewill always exceed our knowledge. It . It will. will.

Proposition Three: No Proposition Three: No HurryHurry

All life depends on sunlight and the All life depends on sunlight and the complex and integrated chemical and complex and integrated chemical and thermodynamic processes it powers. thermodynamic processes it powers.

Net Primary Production (NPP) is the Net Primary Production (NPP) is the term that describes the energic and term that describes the energic and organic material production of these organic material production of these ecosystem processes. ecosystem processes.

NPP is constrained by many factors NPP is constrained by many factors and cannot be substantially improved, and cannot be substantially improved, increased or sped up over time without increased or sped up over time without the addition of inputs from outside the the addition of inputs from outside the system.system.

Proposition Three: No Proposition Three: No HurryHurry

Our high life of consumption is brought Our high life of consumption is brought to us by contemporary NPP to us by contemporary NPP andand the rapid the rapid drawdown of an eon or more worth of drawdown of an eon or more worth of accumulated fresh water and highly accumulated fresh water and highly energy-dense materials (stored Natural energy-dense materials (stored Natural Capital). Capital).

Across the board this drawdown is Across the board this drawdown is increasingly noticeable in the increasingly noticeable in the exploitation of soils, aquifers, oil and exploitation of soils, aquifers, oil and natural gas. natural gas.

In the grand sweep of human history and In the grand sweep of human history and culture, these are one-time draw downs. culture, these are one-time draw downs.

Proposition Three: No Proposition Three: No HurryHurry

We can’t speed up natural We can’t speed up natural processes.processes.

Our only option is to slow Our only option is to slow ourselves downourselves down. .

No Harm, No Hubris, No No Harm, No Hubris, No HurryHurry

Each is a limit on human behavior.Each is a limit on human behavior. Each requires us to think of ourselves Each requires us to think of ourselves

and the world in which we live in and the world in which we live in radically and deeply different ways.radically and deeply different ways.

Each will sound and feel foreign to us.Each will sound and feel foreign to us. All are necessary for the transition All are necessary for the transition

that is coming.that is coming.

Action ItemsAction Items Become an Become an Ambassador of LimitsAmbassador of Limits.. Block the “No-Limits” dogma peddled Block the “No-Limits” dogma peddled

by technological optimists and economic by technological optimists and economic theorists.theorists.

Acknowledge Net Primary Production as Acknowledge Net Primary Production as the only long-term feedstock for the only long-term feedstock for sustaining life.sustaining life.

Slow down. And when going fast admit Slow down. And when going fast admit your role in the run on the bank. your role in the run on the bank.

Welcome limits as one of the initial and Welcome limits as one of the initial and permanent operating conditions for any permanent operating conditions for any system with life in it. system with life in it.

Action ItemsAction Items Resist solutions that ignore human Resist solutions that ignore human

population.population. Resist solutions that create extinctions.Resist solutions that create extinctions. Count calories, including those embodied Count calories, including those embodied

in our everyday products. in our everyday products. Understand and appreciate the role that Understand and appreciate the role that

nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, sulfur, and magnesium—play in calcium, sulfur, and magnesium—play in your life.your life.

Demand a public and accurate accounting Demand a public and accurate accounting of our Net Primary Production feed stocks of our Net Primary Production feed stocks and capital stocks. and capital stocks.

Action ItemsAction Items Demand that losses of natural capital Demand that losses of natural capital

be accounted for in any calculation of be accounted for in any calculation of costs and benefits.costs and benefits.

Discount efficiency as nothing more Discount efficiency as nothing more than a clever way to increase than a clever way to increase consumption (Jevons Paradox).consumption (Jevons Paradox).

Accept blame yourself.Accept blame yourself. Honor your debt to the universe by Honor your debt to the universe by

drinking a toast to its—and your—drinking a toast to its—and your—continued existence. continued existence. You can do this every day.You can do this every day.

Why This is So DifficultWhy This is So Difficult

Flashy BrainsFlashy Brains GenesisGenesis PrometheusPrometheus The EnlightenmentThe Enlightenment Manifest DestinyManifest Destiny

Geological InheritanceGeological Inheritance Crediting the Brains (the pumps) rather Crediting the Brains (the pumps) rather

than the Inheritance (the well)than the Inheritance (the well) Bacteria in a Petri Dish and the Bacteria in a Petri Dish and the

Evolutionary Disposition to Live to Excess Evolutionary Disposition to Live to Excess http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/u/up_the_creek_without_a_paddle.ashttp://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/u/up_the_creek_without_a_paddle.aspp

Why This Is So NecessaryWhy This Is So Necessary Using the Tree of Knowledge to Using the Tree of Knowledge to

Protect the Tree of LifeProtect the Tree of Life A True Test and Testament of a Well-A True Test and Testament of a Well-

Developed Neo-CortexDeveloped Neo-Cortex There’s Still TimeThere’s Still Time The Scope of the Problem is GlobalThe Scope of the Problem is Global Limits are the Key to CreativityLimits are the Key to Creativity

Spread The Pledge!Spread The Pledge!No Harm No Hubris

No Hurry