the macroeconomic framework given a set of macroeconomic goals and a policy framework, a...
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The Macroeconomic Framework
Given a set of macroeconomic goals
and a policy framework,
a macroeconomic framework is
a set of sectoral projections (for the real, external, fiscal, and monetary sectors)
consistent with each other,
consistent with the policy framework,
and consistent with the macroeconomic goals
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Examples of macroeconomic goals
• Preserve macro stability—growth at around 7%, inflation below 5%, keep government debt on a sustainable path, and build-up official reserves
• Engineer a soft landing from unsustainable growth rates
• Lower inflation to single digits• Fiscal consolidation: Reduce debt to X% of GDP
by 2008• Return the BOP to sustainability by reducing the
current account deficit to X% of GDP over the medium term
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Elements/examples of a policy framework
• Fiscal responsibility legislation
• Exchange rate regime
• Inflation targeting or reserve money targeting frameworks for monetary policy
• Structural policies
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Real sector projections
• GDPProduction approach: GDP= sum of value
added across sectorsExpenditure approach: GDP=C+I+X-M
Ensure consistency with fiscal accounts (C and I) and the BOP (X and M)
Key link with BOP: S-I=CABwhere S=National saving=GDP+Net Foreign Income+Net transfers-Consumption
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• Prices: CPI and GDP deflatorExchange rate regimeWhat are cost pressures raising prices?What is the stance of economic policies?Estimate impact of changes to regulated
prices, competition policy, or trade policy
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Forecasting the BOP
• Decide appropriate level of disaggregation for projections
• Consider developments in economies of main trading partners; terms of trade; competitiveness trends
• Consistency with fiscal accounts: Grants and loan disbursements/repayments
• Key lines in Bhutan: X and M; Transportation and travel; factor income; remittances and grants; government loans.
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Projections for fiscal accounts
• Revenues: Tax revenue: First do “passive” projections,
based on existing policies. Then, add/subtract from expected policy changes.
Non-tax revenue: Key in Bhutan (dividends, profit transfers, and operating surpluses of departmental enterprises). It pays to work out detailed projections by source.
Grants: Key in Bhutan. Need to be realistic and coordinate closely with donors. Retain flexibility in executing fiscal policy.
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• ExpendituresKey lines in Bhutan: wages; interest
payments; capex; and net lending.
• Financing: Foreign—disbursements and amortization; and domestic—bank and non-bank.
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Monetary projections
• Estimating a demand for money consistent with growth and inflation projectionsP Y=M V
• Monetary survey: NFA linked to BOP; Government credit from the fiscal accounts; and private net domestic credit usually a residual.
• But is private sector credit growth consistent with growth projections?
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Developing a macro framework is an iterative process
• Initial projections may expose some tensions/imbalances between outcomes, goals and policies
Need to calibrate:Nature, seriousness, and source of the imbalancesPossible rememedies