the mad hedge fund trader “at last!’” with john thomas from san francisco, ca september 10,...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“At Last!’”
With John Thomasfrom San Francisco, CA
September 10, 2014www.madhedgefundtrader.com
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Drew the Short Straw
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Trade Alert PerformanceStill Another New All Time High!
*January Final +3.05%, *July Final +4.18% *February Final +6.41%, *August MTD 5.86%*March Final -2.52% *September +0.60%*April Final +3.32%*May Final +4.61%*June Final +4.24%
2014 YTD +30.11%, versus 3% for the Dow,an outperformance of 26%
*First 185 weeks of Trading +152.6%!
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Portfolio Review- Running Out of Positions!
current capital at risk
Risk On
(TBT) short Treasury bond ETF 10.00%
Risk Off
none
total net position 10.00%
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Trailing 12 Month Return +57.6%%
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44 Months Since Inception-50 BP Short of All Time High
+152.5%, Averaged annualized +39.8%
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Strategy Outlook-Risk is Still On
*Global bonds probably peaked last week on ECB move
*Cease fire in Ukraine is risk positive, but is this a bluff so Putin can turn off Europe’s natural gas this winter?
*Now Alibaba is looming over global capital markets, triggering $20 billion in reallocations
*ECB makes its big move, collapsing Euro andyen and sending dollar to yearly high
*US dollar stronger than it appears
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The Jim Parker ViewThe Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1,500 upgrade
Technical Set Up of the week
Buy *Dollar in any form, yen, Euro
*European bonds
Sell Short – *Stock Market trying to put in short term high
*Every oil rally has failed
Avoid –*Gold, precious metals
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The Global Economy-The US is Stronger than it looks
*August nonfarm payroll a disappointment at 142,000, means interest rates lower for longer, unemployment 6.2% down to 6.1%
*US Q2 GDP growth at 4.2% is hotter than hot, may get revised up more!
*Europe fears of Japan deflationary repeat as August inflation falls to 0.3%, French GDP market down from 1% to 0.5%
*Japan fears of European deflation, Q2 GDP -7.2% annualized off of tax increase, New pension head in Japan to shift greater share of $1.3 trillion in assets out of bonds and into stocks, means more QE sooner
*China August services PMI up from 54.2 to 54.4
*US July Factory Orders rise a record 10.5%one huge airliner exports
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ISM MfG New 7 Year HighIs What the Stock Market is Seeing
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Weekly Jobless Claims-The trend is your Friend+4,000 to 302,000, new 7 year lows!
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Bonds-US and Europe Simultaneously Top Out
*Highs for the year were probably put in for for Europe and the US last week, triggered by ECB QE
*One more rally left to test the theory, put in reverse head and shoulders on charts
*Fed tapers quantitative easing to zero in next month, but interest rates rises not until late 2015
*New trade of the year is to Switch out of bonds
*Huge rally in (JNK) disappears
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Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) 2.50%failure here is key, proves my top for the year call
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30 Year Treasury Yield ($TYX)-Yield 3.23%Inverse Head and Shoulders setting Up?
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Junk Bonds (HYG) 5.70% YieldThe New Lead Contract-Wow!
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2X Short Treasuries (TBT)long 10% position-keeping for a quick turnaround
volatility is low
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Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)3.49% Yield
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Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 3.30% Yield
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Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2.88% yield,Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds
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MLP’s (LINE) 9.40% Yield-Holding Up Against Falling Oil
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Stocks- Best August in 14 Years
*S&P 500 had gone 14 consecutive days without a 0.50% move, longest boring streak since 1995.
*Reallocation from bonds and stocks into cash us underway, stocks will lead the rebound
*Will see a sector shift on next 4% correction, out of Apple and technology and into banks, or out of Apple into other technology
*(SPY) should hit 2,100 by yearend
*Use next volatility visit to $17 ascue to buy
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S&P 500
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Dow Average
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NASDAQ (QQQ)-Still an Uptrend
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Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)-Weak Euro Helping Stocks
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(VIX)-Back to the Bottom
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Russell 2000 (IWM)-Wedge Setting Up?
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Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM)Watch Out for an Apple Drag!
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Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)
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Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL)
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Financial Select SPDR (XLF)
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Apple (AAPL) – We got the Run to New HighsThe iPhone 6 is Here! Buy the rumor, sell the news!
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Google (GOOGL)
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Stock of the Week-First Solar (FSLR)
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China-The Upside breakout is Here!
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Japan (DXJ)-Weak on poor GDP figures
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Emerging Markets (EEM)
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India (EPI) – Still Grinding Up on EEM Strength
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Foreign Currencies- Euro QE is Here at Last!
*Draghi move the big move, with interest rates cuts and QE, more to come, 400-800 billions Euros to start, 5 years behind the US
*Medium term target of $127 hit, next comes $125, $120, and eventually $1.00
*Scotland votes for independence51-49, demolishing the pound
*BOJ announces no new monetary actions, but yen falls anyway
*Dollar hits new high for the year,sucking in more foreign money intoUS financial assets
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Euro (FXE)-The Freefall is Ontook profits on the 9/$133-$135 put spread
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Long Dollar Index (UUP) – Euro and Yen Collapse Great for Dollar
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British Pound (FXB)Demoed by Scottish Poll showing 51-49 in favor of leaving the
UK
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Japanese Yen (FXY)-A Breakdown at Last!Launching off a 25 year base
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Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)
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Australian Dollar (FXA) – Flat lining on Neglect
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Chinese Yuan (CYB)-Only the Yuan is holding up against Uncle Buck
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Emerging Market Currencies (CEW)
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Energy-Collapse!
*Collapsing prices are forcing Russia to sell more oil to support weakening economy, accelerating the downturn
*Saudi Arabia fighting back to preserve market share, boosting production
*Flip from Contango to Backwardation is price supportive
*Kurdish direct sales increasing after winning US court cases
*Libyan exports resume, potentially adding 1.5 million barrels/day to global supply
*Russia funding anti—fracking efforts in Europe to protect huge market there, export earnings
*China leases world’s largest tanker tostore 3.2 million barrels long term
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Oil- Back to Multi Year$77.50-$112.50 Range
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United States Oil Fund (USO)
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Natural Gas (UNG)-
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Copper-It’s All About the Dollar
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Freeport McMoRan (FCX)-
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Precious Metals-The Anti Dollar Trade
*Simultaneous acceleration of quantitative easing in both Japan and Europe is very gold negative, Euro interest rate cut another nail in the gold coffin
*Physical gold purchases from China and India falling, even though we are into the Indian wedding season
*Collapsing oil, strong dollar together dragging down gold
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Gold-Yuk!
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Barrack Gold (ABX)-
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Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX)
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Silver (SLV)-Show Me the Rally
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Silver Miners (SIL)-
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Agriculture
* USDA crop progress report is one of the best in history
*Perfect weather continues
*Too many farmers still waiting for a rally to sell into
*Soybean “good/average rating is 64%, now at an amazing 74%, same for wheat and corn
*Hopes for an early frost?
*Stand aside
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(CORN)-New Lows! Blame This on the Dollar Too!
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(SOYB)-Free Fall!
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DB Commodities Index ETF (DBC)-Double Yuk!
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Real Estate-An Autumn Revival?* Mortgage Interest rates at 18 month lows have failed to spur the market
*End of taper could bring the end of the 30 year fixed rate loan.
*High end house flipping is soaring
*Entry level buyer MIA and may be gone for a decade(student loans, bad associations,other priorities)
*
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May S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index+9.3% down to +8.1% YOY
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(ITB)-US Home Construction Dow Sub indexpositive data is feeding into stocks
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Trade Sheet-keep positions small, better not to trade at all
than pursue marginal trades
*Stocks- buy the dips, but keep size small, with tech leading*Bonds- sell rallies across all fixed income, the top is in*Commodities-stand aside*Currencies- sell every Euro rally forever, and the yen too*Precious Metals –stand aside, buy the next bottom*Volatility-stand aside, could be a long summer*The Ags –buy new lows*Real estate- stand aside
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To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com
Next Strategy Webinar 12:00 Wednesday, September 24, 2014, Live from San Francisco, California
Good Luck and Good Trading!