the methanol report - chemical intelligence · the methanol report december 13, 2015 price...
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1
The Methanol Report
December 13, 2015 Price Assessments
In This Issue
December spot barges traded as low as 63.50 cts/gal FOB Houston late last week
Regional truck offers slip
2 cts/gal on average earlier this month
Large volume spot prices in Europe drop below Euro 224/mt FOB Rotterdam
Spot prices CFR China
remain near $230/mt after losing ground earlier in the month
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barge and terminal price forecasts for the next three months
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Price History
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USG Contract/Posted Q3AVG
List FOB USG 103.00 - 105.00 105.00 - 105.00 105.00 - 110.00 121.17
Weighted Contract Avg 103.00 - 105.00 105.00 - 105.00 105.00 - 108.00 120.67
Methanex MNDRP 122.67
SCC MPP 119.67
Tauber Monthly Price 108.00
Large Spot
Barges FOB USG 63.50 - 64.25 79.00 - 80.00 87.00 - 90.00 89.96
Rail FOB USG 80.00 - 85.00 86.00 - 88.00 89.00 - 91.00 97.83
Terminals
To Distribution
Truck FOB Houston 87.00 - 93.00 89.00 - 95.00 91.50 - 95.00 107.00
Truck FOB S. LA 89.00 - 94.00 91.50 - 95.00 93.00 - 95.00 107.25
Truck & Rail FOB Bayonne 89.00 - 95.00 91.00 - 97.00 94.00 - 98.00 110.50
Truck & Rail FOB Perth Amboy 89.00 - 95.00 91.00 - 97.00 94.00 - 98.00 110.50
Truck & Rail FOB Wilmington 93.00 - 97.00 95.00 - 99.00 97.00 - 104.00 112.83
Truck & Rail FOB Chicago 111.00 - 114.00 113.00 - 116.00 114.50 - 118.00 130.25
To Consumer
Truck FOB Houston 90.00 - 95.00 92.00 - 97.00 93.00 - 97.00 108.67
Truck FOB S. LA 90.00 - 95.00 92.00 - 97.00 93.00 - 97.00 108.83
Truck & Rail FOB Bayonne 92.00 - 97.00 94.00 - 99.00 95.00 - 99.00 112.67
Truck & Rail FOB Perth Amboy 92.00 - 97.00 94.00 - 99.00 95.00 - 99.00 112.67
Truck & Rail FOB Wilmington 95.00 - 100.00 97.00 - 102.00 98.00 - 105.00 107.67
Truck & Rail FOB Chicago 112.00 - 116.00 114.00 - 118.00 116.00 - 120.00 125.33
Contract List FOB E. Can. 485 - 485 485 - 485 510 - 510 552
Contract List FOB W. Can. 545 - 545 545 - 545 570 - 570 612
Methanex WCDL 612
Spot Terminal Del. E. Canada 425 - 475 425 - 475 450 - 495 515
Spot Terminal Del. W. Canada 485 - 545 485 - 545 500 - 565 573
USG Rail est. del W. Canada 479 - 503 507 - 517 521 - 531 522
Spot CFR China 228 - 230 236 - 238 236 - 238 255
Spot CFR S.E. Asia 252 254 258 - 260 261 - 263 285
Methanex ACP 350
Contract List FOB NWE 295 - 295 295 - 295 295 - 295 359
Spot FOB NWE T2 223 - 224 234 - 235 241 - 242 263
Methanex ECP 365
US
Asia
(US $/MT)
Canada
(CAN $/MT)
13-Dec November October
Lis t (non-discounted) prices posted once nominations are made are subject to change.
*Figures in italics are prel iminary based on nominations or estimates referenced in report
Europe
(Euro/MT)
305 305
295 295 295
305
545 545 570
92.00 94.00 94.00
(US cts/gal)
105.00
103.00
105.00
105.00
110.00
105.00
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2
U.S. Market Summary
Bearish sentiments prevailed last week as
historically low crude prices and increasing
availability sent spot barge prices in the USG
dramatically lower. Although contract postings this
month reflected only a minor change on average,
recent spot prices led to somewhat premature
conjecture about the possibility of sizeable
concessions next month. By the end of last week
spot barge prices had dropped almost 40% below the
current posted contract average. Given that the
historical differential rarely remains much above
20% some observers believe adjustments of more
than 20 cts/gal would be needed if the current
disparity remains in place through the end of the
month. Others caution that several influential
importers maintain the ability to soak up excess spot
material and possibly initiate a near term recovery
before the holidays which could provide a basis for
more moderate concessions in January. This month
Methanex carried forward its US methanol posted price of $1.05/gal after implementing a 5 cts/gal decrease in November while
Southern Chemical Corporation (SCC) lowered its regional posted price 2 cts/gal to $1.03/gal on December 1st after rolling over
last month. Other major suppliers as well as many distributors reported carrying over existing prices this month after doing the
same last month, although a few issued notices of decreases that in several instances took the form of a 2 cts/gal drop. For a
complete list of contract adjustments and related benchmarks (national and regional) current subscribers can click here to access
the client website with your user name and password.
Regional availability continues to improve with the successful startup of new plants in the US Gulf in the last few weeks, although
supply from offshore producers remains impacted by ongoing feedstock constraints. Imports for October dropped 50% as
compared to last year. New supply in the form of the 1.3 mln mt/yr Fairway Methanol JV plant in Clear Lake, Texas started up in
October and reportedly reached full rates last month. A second relocated 1 mln mt/yr Methanex unit is still expected up in
Geismar, Louisiana by the end of the year. Once the new Methanex plant is operational US capacity will reach 5.75 mln mt/yr. As
previously noted in Chile Methanex reportedly started one unit back up on September 25th
after the state oil and gas company
agreed to supply the plant feedstock until at least April of next year allowing it to run at about 40% of capacity. In Trinidad
suppliers report production is still “normal” with gas supply related cuts moving forward expected to remain between 5% and
10%. Production in Venezuela was impacted by reported feedstock constraints that some observers claim remain a source of
concern, although the sellers affected in October appear better supplied at this time. With spot prices in the US seemingly elevated
in prior months there were also reports of imports moving this way during October and early November, although interest quickly
thinned in the following weeks.
Spot prices dropped precipitously last week as sellers attempted to unload volume or in some cases take short positions in
anticipation of a dramatic increase in domestic incremental availability in the coming weeks. Demand among large end users is
still impacted by slow economic conditions within the US and stocks among many buyers remain elevated. At the same time
production costs are low and crude prices remain depressed impacting MTO economics in Asia. To see the last price forecast
please log into the client website at http://www.chemicalintelligence.com.
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Eu
ro
/MT
US
$/M
T
Contract/Benchmark Prices
US Prod Cost est US
China NWE
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3
U.S. Large Volume Spot Market
Domestic barge assessments eroded quickly last week
amid ongoing concerns about excess availability,
although many traders claimed there were few
confirmed deals done. On Monday traders reported bids
near 74.25/gal with offers at or above 74.75/gal FOB
Houston or St. Rose. On Tuesday there were reports of
offers just above the 70 cts/gal mark with bids perhaps
close to 70 cts/gal. Early in the day one source reported
bids near 70.75/gal and offers at or above 71 cts/gal. By
Wednesday price ideas continued to erode with one
confirmed offer for December reported at 68 cts/gal
early in the day and no corresponding bids. By the end
of the week traders reported deals at progressively lower
prices. December barges were reportedly done at 65
cts/gal, 64.50 cts/gal and 63.50 cts/gal FOB Houston by
Friday. At the end of the day one trader assessed bids
near 63.50/gal and offers at or above 64 cts/gal FOB.
U.S. Terminal Markets
Many small volume spot markets are on the cusp of
correcting according to some regional sellers, although
activity on the whole is still somewhat thin and many
buyers have not actively sought price breaks in order to
drive new sales. This month offers adjusted down 2 cts/gal
on average according to distributors after most suppliers
carried over offers in November. Methanex and those
supplied by the company held small volume prices steady
while a number of other sellers across the country were
reported issuing concessions of as much as 2 cts/gal in
most instances. Downstream demand among seasonal end
users in the gas patch as well as windshield wash
manufacturers is still trailing forecasts with weather across
much of the US still well relatively mild. Inventories
among some service companies are reportedly high and
some are buying on a just in time basis. Slow conditions
and the prospect for increased supply is leading to
increased competition in some markets, although prices
have come under less pressure than many anticipated as liquidity in some cases is constrained due to the lack of spot interest
among consumers. Last month Methanex moved its posted price down 5 cts/gal but small volume spot marketers limited
November decreases to 2 cts/gal or in some cases rollovers.
Truck and railcar prices adjusted marginally lower this month, although many expect further softening in the weeks ahead.
Regional truck and railcar prices in the US Gulf adjusted down as much as 2 cts/gal on average this month according to
distributors and resellers, although with spot based replacement costs lower and competition among suppliers heating up additional
downward consolidation is possible. Several sellers adjusted established posted prices down this month including Tauber which
moved 2 cts/gal lower to 92 cts/gal on December 1st after rolling over last month. Mainstream offers to local distributors
reportedly drifted to 92 cts/al with support attributed to several active sellers near 91 cts/gal, although a few confirmed having to
meet competition nearer the 90 cts/gal mark last week. One active competitive seller is reported moving trucks to distributors as of
last week FOB Houston just under 90 cts/gal and offering FOB East Texas at or below 87 cts/gal. Spot railcar prices to active
distributors were reported near 80 cts/gal FOB Houston roughly a week ago, although with barge prices sharply lower some
contend new deals could occur well below 80 cts/gal. Seasonal demand in the Midwest tapered through last week as mild weather
prompted little restocking among wash manufacturers, many of whom report inventory levels remain high. Initially one local
marketer confirmed lowering offers by a penny, although another local seller later confirmed moving down 2 cts/gal and further
downward consolidation was expected. At the low end of the selling range trucks offers to distributors were reported between
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
US
cts
/ga
l
U.S. Spot and Terminal Dist. Prices
Barge FOB USG FOB Houston
FOB Bayonne FOB Perth Amboy
FOB Chicago
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US
ct
s/g
al
Methanol USG Spot Diff. to Contract
Benchmark
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4
$1.10/gal and $1.11/gal FOB Chicago with mainstream offers to local resellers according to some between $1.12/gal and $1.14/gal
FOB. Truck offers to consumers are reported between $1.14/gal and $1.16/gal FOB Chicago. Delivered railcar prices are also
assessed lower amid some reports of deals attributed to competitive suppliers close to or just over $1/gal. Regional marketers in
the somewhat insulated Northeast reported adjusting spot offers as much as 2 cts/gal lower this month, although some sellers
confirmed carrying existing prices forward this month. Seasonal demand is still thin and availability remains healthy. Last week
competitive truck prices to distributors FOB New Jersey were noted hovering near 90cts/gal FOB with at least one seller still
below 90 cts/gal. Truck offers to consumers are reported between 92 and 96 cts/gal according to several marketers. Activity in the
Southeast also appeared to thin in preceding weeks and prices reportedly adjusted down 1 to 2 cts/gal at the start of the month.
Although some distributors contend low end prices attributed o one seller dipped towards 90 or 91 cts/gal others claim mainstream
offers to distribution remain in the 92 to 94 cts/gal rang FOB Wilmington while truck offers to consumers are still in the mid 90
cts/gal range.
North American Distribution Price Averages
* Terminal price average to distribution and change from previous month indicated by directional arrow unless otherwise listed.
Far East Markets
Activity is steady but unpronounced with demand among derivatives manufacturers slow but supply still limited and inventories in
China below normal according o local traders. Large volume spot prices in Northeast Asia remained fairly resilient and changed
little in the last week after declining slightly in the week prior. A sharp decline in crude prices impacted buying sentiment and also
MTO economics according to local observers. As previously noted two new MTO plants Shenhua and Mengda are scheduled to
begin operating soon, with the former now rumored to be delayed until December and the latter still slated to start up this month.
The 800,000 mt/yr Jiangsu Sailboat MTO plant expected up this year will now begin operations by the middle of next year
according to local sources. Formaldehyde demand is seasonally thin while acetic acid prices remain under pressure due to
oversupply which in turn led to economically driven production cuts in prior weeks. MTBE demand is reportedly stable but supply
is considered healthy. Regional contract prices appear steady this month with spot prices relatively stable through the end of
November. Methanex confirmed carrying forward its existing regional benchmark of $305/mt on December 1st after doing the
same last month and lowering the price $10/mt in October. Upstream feedstock costs in the form of both coal and gas remain low
prompting reports of several plant restarts and conjecture about average operating rates in China rising.
114 cts/gal
95 cts/gal
90 cts/gal
Barges FOB USG
63.875 cts/gal
C$ 515/mt
C$ 450/mt
112.5 cts/gal
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5
Regional availability is healthy despite low inventory levels in some shore tank locations. In Saudi Arabia Sipchem was expected
to bring down its 1 mln mt/yr IMC plant in Jubail earlier last month for a 45 day turnaround and equipment upgrade that could last
until mid December. In Brunei the planned restart of the 850,000 mt/yr BMC plant that reportedly went down on October 18th
was
reportedly delayed. In Iran one 1.65 mln mt/yr Zagros plant is expected down in December for a 45 day turnaround. In Malaysia
Petronas is reported running its 1.7 mln mt/yr Unit 2 in Labuan at a reduced rate after restarting in October following an extended
turnaround that began in August
Large volume spot prices remained relatively stable through most of last week after drifting lower in the prior week, although
higher prices in other major centers of trade continued to attract more volume away from the region (a dynamic that is starting to
change). On Monday traders reported large spot volumes offered CFR China near $229/mt while prices CFR SE Asia remained
assessed at $252/mt. At the end of the week large volume spot assessments were relatively unchanged with imports CFR CMP
reportedly bid near $228/mt and offered closer to $230/mt while spot CFR SE Asia was reported bid near $252/mt and offered
nearer $254/mt. Late last month prices CFR China were noted near $237/mt with prices CFR SE Asia closer to $259/mt. Steady to
slow demand and adequate supply contributed to balanced markets in Chinese domestic markets. Trading activity appeared light
in most regions. Competitive offers in Eastern provinces were reported as relatively flat in the low CNY 1,800/mt range with
January assessments reported nearly CNY 100/mt lower around CNY 1,725/mt. In the South competitive offers appeared mostly
lat with locals noting offers near or just under CNY 1,880/mt. In the North offers continue to span a wide range between CNY
1,680 and CNY 1,730/mt ex-Hebei.
European Market
Regional demand among large end users is seasonally thin and prices among some derivative producers reportedly eased in the last
two weeks. A sharp drop in crude values along with a minor uptick in the value of the Euro also helped propel spot methanol
assessments lower. Availability is healthy with inland logistics improved after water levels in the Rhine and other tributaries rose.
As previously noted production in Tomsk is still possibly curtailed somewhat but the 1 mln mt/yr Metafrax plant was expected up
in October following a turnaround. The 200,000 mt/yr Kikinda plant in Serbia was also expected to start up by the beginning of
November. The 720,000 mt/yr AzMeCo plant is reportedly operating at roughly half of nameplate with no plans to raise
production after the company suspended gas purchases from Gazprom in Russia. In Egypt the E-Methanex unit in Damietta is
reported idle subject to further gas curtailments. Contract prices could adjust lower in Q1, although conjecture about the magnitude
is still premature.
Large volume spot prices moved progressively lower through last week amid concerns about oversupply, both globally and within
Europe. On Monday traders reported relatively slow conditions with bids and offers on either side of Euro 228.50 /mt FOB
Rotterdam T2. By midweek traders reported both bids and offers trending lower with both near or below the Euro 225/mt mark.
Late in the week spot was reported lower near Euro 223.50/mt (two weeks prior spot was noted closer to Euro 235/mt).
Canadian Market
Mild weather across the East and West continues to impact demand among seasonal end users, although a steady decline in the
value of the Canadian dollar helped to offset lower methanol costs in recent months. The value of the Canadian dollar as
compared to the US dollar dropped over 15% during the course of the year and in the last month the value of the Canadian dollar
dropped another 3%. With demand sluggish regional availability is healthy with no reports of logistical issues noted as of last
week. Wash sales are slow with many blenders reporting inventories high pending the first wave of winter weather. Demand into
the gas patch is also thin with some service companies claiming business in the West is down 20% or more as compared to last
year. The prospect of price corrections in the near term is also impacting demand among consumers. This month contract and spot
prices were largely unchanged according to distributors as many claim most sellers were reluctant to pass on minor concessions
once a major supplier announced a rollover. Others suggest easing is inevitable with spot based replacement costs in the US
dramatically lower. This month prices reportedly settled down as much as CAN $25/mt in line with producer announcements after
rolling over last month. In September US benchmarks dipped US 15 cts/gal (CAN $65/mt) to US 18 cts/gal (CAN $78/mt) and
spot in many markets appeared to drop US 15 cts/gal (CAN $65/mt) to 17 cts/gal (CAN $73.50/mt), but producer led decreases in
Canada reportedly averaged CAN $50/mt
Activity in the West is flat or only slightly improved according to several distributors contacted late last week, although sales on
the whole continue to trail forecasts and mild temperatures are expected to remain in place through the remainder of the month.
Demand among service companies in the gas patch is still thin amid ongoing reports of cost cutting measures. Availability is
healthy with no reports of any logistical issues or delays and supply augmented by intermittent railcar imports. This month
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Methanex carried forward its Western Canadian Distributor List (WCDL) price of CAN $545/mt following a CAN $25/mt drop
last month and a rollover in October. Other suppliers were reportedly also rolling over this month, although in some cases their
costs were expected to move down. Although prices remain relatively steady at this time and many distributors and resellers are
holding what would now be considered high cost inventory, USG based replacement costs eroded significantly last week which
will likely impact local offers in the near future. At this time small volume spot prices at the low end of the range to distributors
remain stable on either side of CAN $500/mt FOB Edmonton. Small volume offers to service companies and end users are
reported in a wider range between CAN $535/mt and CAN $550/mt FOB Edmonton.
Similarly, overall activity in the East is also subdued in a large part due to the relatively mild weather of late in the region, and
prices remained largely unchanged through last week. Seasonal wash manufacturers confirm sales are lagging expectations with
resellers and retailers holding high inventories. Some buyers continue to take just in time quantities, although most are reluctant to
accumulate much given the likelihood for further easing. This month Methanex carried forward existing prices and other sellers
reportedly did the same despite receiving minor supplier led concessions, although many buyers expect prices to ease in the near
future. At this time spot trucks delivered Quebec are assessed stable in the low to mid $400/mt range amid some rumors of volume
moving below CAN $400/mt. Small volume spot delivered lower Ontario is also reported steady between CAN $470/mt and CAN
$500/mt.
Derivative Markets
Downstream demand among large end users remains
tepid with no marked improvement noted among
several buyers last week. In some cases the strength
of the US dollar has reportedly impacted exports
among some derivative producers. Construction and
housing markets within the US remain seasonally
slow and wood products manufacturers reported
structural panel prices under pressure once again last
week as some sellers attempted to move existing
inventory. Seasonal wash blenders report slower
than anticipated conditions across the country as
mild weather continues to impact sales among
jobbers and retailers.
Natural Gas
Mild temperatures across key consuming areas of the US continues to
impact consumption and send gas prices lower while high global
inventories put pressure on crude values once again last week. The EIA
reported U.S. natural gas inventories posted their first decline of the
winter heating season in late November, but natural gas inventories at
the end of December are expected to be the third highest ever for the
month.” Baker Hughes reported US gas rigs down 7 at 185, off 161 rigs
compared to last year. Operating oil rigs slipped
21 to 524, down 1022 from a year prior. In
Canada gas rigs rose by 1 to 101, still down 115
compared to a year prior, while oil rigs dropped
by 4 to 73, down by 142 compared to a year prior.
Oil and gas rigs operating in the US are at their
lowest combined level since 1999.
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
Sta
rts
Seasonally Adjusted Housing Starts
Total for lower 48 States 379
Change from prior week (1)
Compared with last year 18
Compared with 5 year average 32
US Gas Stocks as of 12/13/2015
Price Change Pct change from year ago
Henry Hub Spot $1.91 -9 -39.27%
NYMEX Jan16 $2.02 -5 -32.18%
NYMEX 12 Month Strip $2.32 -2 -24.57%
Aeco Spot $2.25 -5 -20.89%
Dawn $2.63 -12 -45.63%
Gas Prices
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The following EIA graphics show gas rig counts as well as historical prices:
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Planned & Unplanned Outages
Company Product Location Cap. (mt/yr) Dates Details
Ampco Methanol Eq. Guinea 1,000,000 Feb 2015 T/R set for Feb. 1st.
Atlas Methanol Pt. Lisas, Trinidad 1,650,000 Apr 2015 Gas cut to 30% 1 week
AzMeCo Methanol Karadag, Azerbaijan 720,000 Oct- 2015 RR
BMC Methanol Brunei 850,000 March 2015 TR 75 days
BP Methanol Gelsenkirchen, Ger. 100,000 Aug 31 2015 7 week T/R
E-Methanex Methanol Damietta, Egypt 1,300,000 Feb 2015-Nov S/D
Fanavaran Methanol Bandar Imam, Iran 1,000,000 Dec 17-Jan ‘14 S/D due to gas shortage
GPIC Methanol Sitra, Bahrain 430,000 Mar-Apr 2015 2 week T/R
GNFC Methanol Gujarat, India 290,000 April 2014 T/R
IMC Methanol Jubail, S. Arabia 1,000,000 Nov 2015 45day T/R
Jiutai Methanol Erdos, Mongolia 1,000,000 July 7-17 Maintenance
Kaltim Methanol Bontang, Indonesia 660,000 Oct 20-Dec 4 ‘15 T/R
Kharg Methanol Kharg Island, Iran 660,000 Nov 11-Dec 2 ‘14 T/R
LyondellBasell Methanol Channelview, TX 780,000 Q1 2015 T/R
M5000 Methanol Pt. Lisas, Trinidad 1,890,000 April 2015- Gas curtailments
Metafrax Methanol Gubakha, Russia 1,000,000 Sep-Oct 2015 T/R
Methanex Methanol Medicine Hat, AB 600,000 Dec -Jan 10 ‘14 Unplanned outage
Methanex Methanol Chile 1, Punta Arenas 1,000,000 Nov 2015- 40% OR
Metor I Methanol Jose, Venezuela 730,000 April 2015 Gas leak, disruptions
Millennium Methanol LaPorte, TX 600,000 Feb 2014 T/R
NOC Methanol Marsa El Brega,Libya 330,000 Ongoing RR since SU Mar 2013
OCI Methanol Beaumont, TX 912,500 Feb-Apr. 2015 Debottleneck
OMC Methanol Sohar, Oman 1,000,000 Jan –Mar 2015 Extended T/R.
Petronas Methanol Labuan, Malaysia 1,700,000 Aug-Sep 2015 45 Day T/R
Petronas Methanol Labuan, Malaysia 660,000 Aug-Oct 2014 TR 60 days
Qafac Methanol Qatar 990,000 Mar 2014 Planned T/R
Salalah Methanol Salalah, Oman 1,000,000 Jan 2015 T/R
Supermetanol Methanol Jose, Venezuela 730,000 April 2015 Reported disruptions
Tchekinoazot Methanol Russia 450,000 April 24-May 24 T/R
Zagros 1 Methanol Assaluyeh, Iran 1,650,000 Mar -May 2015 Outage
Zagros 2 Methanol Assaluyeh, Iran 1,650,000 Nov 2015 T/R
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11
Currency USD/1 unit 1 unit/USD
Euro 1.10 0.91
UK Pound 1.52 0.66
Canadian Dollar 0.73 1.38
Japanese Yen 121.04 0.01
Swiss Franc 0.98 1.02
Current Exchange Rates
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