The Millennium ProjectJuly, 2007

Real Time Delphi to identify variables, “best and worst” forecasts, and weights for SOFI.

Construction of the 2007 SOFI, using these variables, with attention to national SOFIs.

Establishing National SOFI Standards

Systematizing Excel spreadsheet approach for national SOFIs

Number of Responses

020406080

100120140160180200

0 50 100 150

Days

Total Registrants

Answ ering at least 1Qvuestion

Employment

Author , 5Consultant, 18

Private Sector, 13

Government, 11NGO, 7

University, 29

International Organization, 3

Other, 15

Region

Europe, 32.6

North America, 32

Pacific Asia, 5.7

South East Asia, 5

Sub Sahara Africa, 8.6

Latin America, 9.7

Middle East, 4.6North Africa,

1.7

No Variable Import

1   4  Improved water source   9.08

2   8  Literacy rate, adult total  8.57

3   33  Corruption  8.54

4   18  School Enrollment, secondary  8.53

5   14  People Living in Extreme Poverty 8.51

6   20  Nuclear Proliferation 8.40

7   5  Carbon dioxide emissions  8.40

8   7  Percent unemployment  8.25

9   31  Energy consumption per GDP  8.18

10  11  Number of armed conflicts  8.18

Rank VariableGlobal Import

Best Worst

17   People in Countries that are Free or Partially Free  7.85 60 40

18   Global Surface Temperature Anomalies  7.84 0.9 1.5

19   GDP per capita  7.71 9000 5500

20   People voting in elections  7.69 70.0 50.0

21   Healthcare workers (Physicians, nurses, midwives, etc.) 7.67 7.0 4.0

22   Internet Users  7.54 600 260

23   Infant mortality  7.51 28.0 59.2

24   Forest Lands  7.43 32 25

25   Life expectancy at birth  7.15 75 65

26   Seats held by women in national parliaments  7.06 25 15

27   Number of refugees, asylum seekers, displaced persons  6.97 45.0 70.0

28   Total Debt as percent of Gross National Income  6.75 48 55

29   Percentage of global income concentrated in US, others 6.67 35.0 45.0

30   Homicides, intentional  6.64 5.0 15.0

31   Number of university courses on futures 6.62 250 60

32   Prevalence of HIV  6.59 1.0 3.0

12

34

5

Quintile

0

10

20

30

40

50

Num

ber

of R

espo

nses

Water: Nat ImportPop: BestUneml: Best

Distribution of Responses

Intellectual– Literacy, enrollments, R&D, Internet

Health– Life expectancy, infant mortality, physicians, HIV, food

Wealth– GDP/cap, unemployment, poverty, debt service

Security– Terrorist attacks, nuc proliferation, refugees

Moral– Corruption, freedom, voting, women in parliaments

Physical– Water, CO2, forests, temperature, renewables

Dashboard Experiments: Getting Worse

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Moral

Physical

Security

Health

Intellect

Wealth

Health, Intellect, and Wealth

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Moral

Physical

Security

Health

Intellect

Wealth

5 6 7 8 9 10

National Import

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Glo

ba

l Im

po

rt

R&D Expenditures

Internet Users

Access to Improved Water Sources

Companies that use ISO 14000

CorruptionLiteracy Rate

Food Availability

R&D expenditures 

Corruption 

Improved water sources 

Percent unemployment 

School Enrollment, secondary 

Renewable Energy  

Energy consumption per GDP 

Internet Users 

GDP per capita 

Physicians per 1000 population 

Literacy rate

Population growth rate 

Forest Lands 

People voting in elections 

Life expectancy at birth 

Food availability 

Infant mortality 

Number of refugees

Homicides, intentional 

Total Debt as percent of Gross National Income 

Seats held by women in national parliaments 

Prevalence of HIV 

People Living in Extreme Poverty

Carbon dioxide emissions 

People killed or injured in terrorist attacks 

Global Surface Temperature Anomalies 

Nuclear Proliferation

Number of infectious diseases

Number of armed conflicts  

People in Countries that are Free

Global

National Comparison

National Focus

Global SOFI National Comparison National Focus

Variables Standard setBased on global; same for all countries.

Newly chosen for the country

Historical dataGlobal data for last 2 decades

National data for last 2 decades

National data for last 2 decades

Best and Worst estimates

Chosen for global forecasts

Use global estimatesNew values for the new variables and the country

WeightsChosen for global forecasts

Use global estimatesNew values for the new variables and the country

TIA DevelopmentsChosen for global forecasts

Use global developmentsDevelopments important to the future of the country

TIA Development Probabilities

Estimated for global TIA developments

Use global TIA development probabilities

Global TIA values for global developments; new estimates for country specific developments

TIA Development Impacts

Estimated for global TIA developments and variables

Use TIA development impacts as they might affect the country

Use TIA development impacts as they might affect the country

History of variables and extrapolation SOFI Baseline TIA Developments Events and Variables TIA (and macro) SOFI with TIA

Excel spreadsheets Reports

• Millennium Project Study of State of the Future Index Variables and Their Use in Country to Country Comparisons (the Real Time Delphi)

• Building the 2007 SOFI

• A Standardized Approach to Building National SOFIs

Produce robust “enterprise level” software

Review and utilize the "standard" for national SOFI's

Construct and compare national SOFI’s

Conduct an analysis designed to find whether country SOFI’s (weighted by population) add up to the global SOFI.

Experiments with other applications (e.g. corporate SOFI’s)

Consider other dimensions (e.g. a measure of national innovativeness)

Review and improve TIA judgments

Construct on line data bases of variables and events to facilitate national and other applications.