Prioritising sydney’s F3-M2 Motorway ConneCtor

with sUPPorting researCh UPdate By PriCewaterhoUseCooPers

May 2012

The missing link and missing out

NSROC president’s message

The eight councils involved in this report represent over three quarters of a million of the greater Sydney metropolitan area’s residents.

We believe the F3-M2 Connector is a local, regional and national priority that will generate substantial economic and social benefits for local residents, for Sydney, and for the nation for generations to come.

Unfortunately the project has been passed over by previous State and Federal governments. With the new NSW Government considering its 20 year Transport for NSW Master Plan in 2012, the time is right for this critical project to be recognised and actioned.

Nick Berman, President of NSROC and Mayor of Hornsby Council

NSROC president’s message

executive summary

Who made This reporT?This report has been collectively commissioned by eight NSW Councils in northern Sydney and central coast area who are concerned about the missing motorway link between the end of the F3 at Wahroonga and M2 motorway interchange at Pennant Hills Road.

This Executive Summary highlights the key findings from the attached analysis undertaken by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

The Northern Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils (NSROC) comprises seven councils in the north of Sydney which have come together to address regional issues, work co-operatively for the benefit of the region, and advocate on regional positions and priorities. The seven member councils are Hornsby, Hunter’s Hill, Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, North Sydney, Ryde and Willoughby.

In addition, Gosford City Council has also supported this report as they view this motorway project as a priority for their community.

WhaT is The missiNg liNk?The F3-M2 Connector is the remaining “missing link” between Sydney’s orbital motorway network and the F3 Freeway which connects Sydney to the Central Coast, Newcastle and beyond with the Pacific and New England Highways.

The proposed link would replace the current section of National Highway on Pennant Hills Road to complete the Sydney Orbital network.

As the Federal Government’s Pearlman Report (2007) found, the most viable option is an 8 kilometre uninterrupted motorway road, which would involve two uni-directional tunnels between the F3 Freeway at Wahroonga and the Pennant Hills Road – M2 interchange.

Why is This liNk imporTaNT?The F3-M2 Connector is the only section of the National Road Network through Sydney that is not of motorway standard.

All three levels of government have recognised the need to provide this infrastructure to ensure basic freight, business and individual transport functionality.

Today, without the link, all vehicles travelling north-south along this major freight and general traffic route are interrupted by over 20 sets of traffic lights to the M2 interchange, or are forced to travel north-south along the congested Pacific Highway to the Warringah Freeway.

The PwC report provides background on historic studies and outlines the mounting costs and multiple negative impacts of continued deferral of this project. The report underpins the call for this vital project to be re-analysed, costed and prioritised.

M5

EasternDistributor

M7

M2

M4

F3 Freeway

Hornsby

Blacktown

Liverpool

Bankstown

Burwood

Bondi Junction

Hurstville

Parramatta

Sydney

Chatswood

Missing link in orbital network

Hume H

ighw

ay

The resideNT“As a resident of Thornleigh we unfortunately deal with the chaos and danger of Pennant Hills Road on a daily basis. Our families and communities are crying out for help ... urgently needed is the undivided attention by all levels of Government to address this ever so compelling issue – the so called “missing link”. It has taken over 40 minutes to travel no more than 1km on Pennant Hills Road and it is only getting worse irrespective of time or day!”

John Hanna – Thornleigh resident

The BUsiNess oWNer“As a mobile plumbing and electrical business based in Thornleigh, transport links are critical for us to reach our clients across Sydney. We have a fleet of 30 trucks and every traffic delay means higher costs to the business and increases the response time to our customers.

The cost to my business on lost productivity (non-billable time spent sitting in traffic) allowing one hour per day per truck would amount to an approximate cost of $475,000 per year. In the 25 years since establishing our business, Pennant Hills Road has become one of the worst bottlenecks in Sydney and costs us daily.”

Allan Ferguson – CEO, Omega Plumbing Services

M5

EasternDistributor

M7

M2

M4

F3 Freeway

Hornsby

Blacktown

Liverpool

Bankstown

Burwood

Bondi Junction

Hurstville

Parramatta

Sydney

Chatswood

Missing link in orbital network

Hume H

ighw

ay

what are we missing out on?

kyle loades – Nrma direcTor“We have long been calling for the government to adopt the recommendations of the Pearlman review to alleviate traffic congestion in Hornsby, Pennant Hills and Thornleigh. Pennant Hills Road is the link between the M2 and the F3 … that can’t be sustained … its time they got down to work.”

1 April 2009

NaTioNal freighT efficieNcyWithout the F3-M2 link, higher costs and constraints on freight movement are created on this north-south corridor connecting Melbourne through to Brisbane. These flow through to increased costs of goods and services for Australian consumers. For example, Woolworths see the bottlenecks on Pennant Hills Road as a key problem causing slower delivery times and increased delivery costs.

In 2008 it was estimated that over 75,600 vehicles were carried by Pennant Hills Road each day, with around 10% (or 8,800) of this volume being truck movements. The average proportion of heavy goods vehicles on roads in NSW is 6.57% which underlines what an important freight corridor this route is. Forward estimates suggest that across Sydney, freight trips will rise by 47% in the next 20 years with heavy vehicles growing at 2.2 per cent per year. This is faster than the population growth of Sydney.

According to Austroads, in 2008 the estimated value of travel time for a semi-trailer is over $55 per hour. If half of the 8,800 heavy goods vehicles using Pennant Hills Road are delayed by 30 minutes then the total cost to business is somewhere in the order of $125,000 per day. This is a conservative estimate as many of the trucks using this route are large combination vehicles such as B-Doubles with higher costs. The $125,000 each day or $45 million per year, only represents the operational costs and does not take into account the wider costs of congestion to society and the environment, which will be significant.

Without the connector, the National Highway cannot operate efficiently as a carrier of road freight, which is damaging to businesses and the wider economy of greater Sydney and arguably a large proportion of the east coast of Australia.

sydNey’s fUNcTioNaliTy aNd compeTiTiveNess Studies estimate that the cost of congestion across Sydney in 2005 was $3.5 billion and could amount to $7.8 billion in 2020.

Longer worker and commuter travel times on congested roads directly affect business competitiveness and profitability. A simple accident can delay a worker reaching the office or a service provider reaching a client. A 2011 NRMA survey found that some individual businesses attributed almost $20,000 extra in wages and fuel costs each year due to gridlock.

Over 60% of the F3 daily traffic is commuters from the Central Coast. A substantial portion of these drivers are travelling onwards to the north west or other parts of Sydney.

Average peak speeds on Pennant Hills Road, last measured in 2004, were between 14km and 25km per hour. Travellers identified Pennant Hills Road as one of the top 5 worst roads in NSW. The inter-regional impacts of congestion and travel times affect all of Sydney, slowing access into other regional centres such as Parramatta, Penrith and Chatswood.

As well as being a key “through State” freight route, around 25 per cent of trucks using Pennant Hills Road have origins or destinations north of Newcastle, in northern NSW or Queensland. A 2011 analysis also suggests that Sydney’s container freight volume will increase 3.5 times from now to 2030. This will generate further freight movements from depots in Sydney’s west, to population growth areas to the north of Sydney and along the NSW coast.

Congestion is so severe it is constraining economic development in the north and north west of Sydney where new housing and business development applications are rejected because of insufficient road capacity along Pennant Hills Road. These rejections are based on the RTA’s concerns about the existing road capacity.

The congestion relief for Pennant Hills Road provided by the F3-M2 Connector could actually reverse this trend by enabling more businesses and urban renewal development to occur along the less congested road. This has been the experience observed on the Cumberland Highway following the construction of the M7.

The hoN phillip rUddock mp“It’s urgently required to address the “missing link” and it’s becoming progressively more urgent with the increased utilisation by freight. With that greater usage, there has also been a significant increase in the dangers posed.”

12 April 2012

social improvemeNTs The social costs of congestion are broad, ranging from the in-estimable personal losses associated with serious injury and accidents to the lost time in congestion impacting on family life and community participation.

High crash rates, that are nearly double the Sydney network average, have been identified on Pennant Hills Road. In 2010, there were 193 reported crashes on Pennant Hills Road with 63 resulting in injury and 34 involving heavy vehicles.

There are both direct costs of accidents and costs associated with accident traffic delays. Studies reveal substantial drops in accident rates on motorway-grade roads. The RTA measure of accident rates shows that the difference in the average crash cost per million of vehicle kilometres travelled falls from $47,900 on arterial roads down to $14,900 on freeways, due to lesser number of crashes on freeways.

A further social impact is the “lost hours” for commuters spent in congestion which reduces individuals’ leisure time to engage with their families and communities. While the impact on work/life balance is difficult to estimate, anecdotal information about higher individual stress, diminishment of community volunteering and reduced social cohesion has been linked to increasing travel times.

eNviroNmeNTal improvemeNTsCongestion results in static and more frequent stops and starts of motor vehicles. This leads to greater fuel consumption, up to double that generated in free flowing conditions, as well as higher exhaust pollution being generated.

With carbon taxes being introduced in 2012, fuel costs per litre will increase on top of the extra fuel required by slow traffic. Additional emissions from heavy traffic have also been linked to health issues particularly respiratory conditions.

A further concern for the immediate area is noise pollution and animal habitat degradation. The preferred route, as identified by previous studies, is predominantly tunnel which should suppress ambient noise and long term environmental impacts, both during construction and operation.

local commUNiTy improvemeNTs aNd groWTh As noted, there are substantial negative impacts from the missing link for local residents in terms of higher accident risk and local congestion.

The daily impacts of congestion result in diversion of traffic into local roads and the “rat runs” around the adjacent suburbs which increases noise and wear on local roads not designed for high traffic flows. This means local trips become far longer for local residents than necessary, with wait times increased because of traffic volumes or right hand turns prohibited. This also inhibits local business development through lack of accessibility and local parking.

The current Pennant Hills Road severs the surrounding suburbs affecting pedestrian mobility and safety. The congestion relief for Pennant Hills Road provided by the F3-M2 Connector could release this road space for greater local uses including public transport, pedestrian and cycling activities.

what issues will we face?

BreNdaN lyoN, iNfrasTrUcTUre parTNerships aUsTralia ceo“Even if we haven’t got money, we can preserve the corridors because if we do have money it would save an arm and a leg (in the future),” he said. Infrastructure Partnerships Australia CEO Brendan Lyon said he believed the M5 or F3 to M2 would be built first because of cost.”

23 February 2012

BeyoNd carryiNg capaciTy Over a decade ago, Pennants Hills Road was identified as having a volume to capacity ratio beyond its actual road capacity, indicating an economic need for improvement.

groWiNg popUlaTioNsSydney’s population is now expected to grow from 5.5 million in 2011 to 7.2 million in 2036, or 1.4% per annum. Growth will be faster in the north west with the population increasing from around 0.8 million to 1.2 million, or 1.8% per annum.

groWiNg freighT aNd coNsUmer demaNd With a growing population in Sydney and NSW, freight and business service demand will increase. Commuter transport requires improvement and through the F3-M2 Connector, business and freight traffic can be diverted and commuters shifted into rapid bus transport that is an effective and attractive alternative.

complemeNTary iNfrasTrUcTUre The NSW Government is examining the major infrastructure needed for the long term.

An airport located north or north-west of Sydney would require a complementary motorway connection which the F3-M2 Connector provides.

Similarly, freight infrastructure such as a second container port at Newcastle and expansion of freight distribution hubs on the Central Coast require connecting infrastructure. When these large infrastructure needs are examined as interrelated systems, then the viability and imperative of the Connector is strengthened and the economic gains maximised.

iNcreasiNg cosT of deferralCost estimates for the Connector have varied depending on construction assumptions and other factors. In 2003, estimates were approximately $1.35 billion while in 2008 they totalled $4.75 billion. The 2008 analysis was undertaken by the NSW Government and full details were not released. Queries remain about this analysis. Nevertheless it is certain that continued deferral of this project increases construction costs and exacerbates the losses currently identified by this paper.

what issues will we face?

what needs to be done?

clr alisoN mclareN, WesTerN sydNey roc presideNT“We don’t have the luxury of choosing whether we want the M4 East or the M5 East, or the F3-M2 link – we need them all ... we can afford to borrow – what we can’t afford to do is postpone these urgent projects any longer. ”

1 December 2011

what needs to be done?

sTraTegic prioriTisaTioNFirstly, the Connector must be recognised as a critical project in strategic planning for NSW and Australia.

compreheNsive aNalysisSecondly, new analysis of the Connector must recognise the wider economic benefits. Traditional cost benefit analysis that has previously been applied, has not included the value of agglomeration, urban amenity, increased business and service reliability, connectivity to key infrastructure such as education facilities and hospitals, and unlocking the potential of the future developments.

fUNdiNg sTreamsThirdly, funding options must be explored and developed. Historic analysis of the Connector has examined both tolled and non-tolled scenarios, and public and private provision options. While there is general acknowledgment that some level of tolling may be required for the Connector, it should be placed in the context of a systematic review of tolling policy and rebalancing of toll charges for major Sydney motorway networks.

Furthermore, given the demonstrable national benefits of the F3-M2 Connector, substantial funding should be provided by the Federal Government.

For more information visit the nsroC website nsroc.com.au or contact:

Carolynne James, nsroC executive directorPo Box 20, Lane Cove nsw 1595

Phone: 02 9911 3595 Mobile: 0403 150 499 email: cjames@nsroc.com.au