The mixed housing system and residential mobility in urban China: comparative study of

Beijing and Guangzhou

John R. Logan and Limei LiDepartment of Sociology

Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences (S4)Brown University

Dec 13, 2007

Outline

• Introduction: housing reform and the mixed housing system

• Residential mobility: who moves where and why?

• Comparative analysis based on the 2006 Beijing survey and 2005 Guangzhou survey data

Residential mobility

• Spatial adjustment model (individual need and preference)

• State persistence model (institutional factors)• Combined housing availability/opportunities

model – The housing availability provided by the state, the

work unit or the developer triggers the residential mobility.

– The housing availability of a given city is quite place-specific. Therefore the local housing context also influence the rate and pattern of residential mobility.

The different settings

• Beijing: the centrally planned economy still prevails.

• Guangzhou: the market sector is much more developed.– The assessment of the level of marketization:

Guangdong Province stands first and Beijing ranks 14th on the list in 2000 (Fan et al., 2003).

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Urban core Inner suburb outer suburb

Figure 4 The distribution of housing floor space completed in BeijingSource: Beijing Statistical Yearbook, 2005

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

0.00%10.00%20.00%

30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%

70.00%80.00%

Total housing floor space completed

Housing floor space completed by real estate development

Share by real estate development

Figure 5 The share of real estate development in housing floor space completed in GuangzhouSource: Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook, 1991-2006

Self-built

Market purchase

Economic purchase

Public purchase

Public rental

Market rental

others

Beijing 31.21 3.95 2.13 27.93 25.08 6.41 3.29

Central city 7.86 0.78 0.99 30.63 52.66 3.10 3.98

Inner suburb 14.39 1.90 1.95 39.04 30.08 9.00 3.64

Outer suburb 62.94 7.95 2.88 12.75 6.29 4.66 2.53

Guangzhou35.73 9.13 2.60 22.53 12.91 11.59 5.52

Central city 10.51 7.05 2.16 40.75 22.66 10.19 6.69

Inner suburb 29.31 8.81 3.49 22.43 12.06 18.25 5.65

Outer suburb 65.54 11.36 2.11 5.77 4.74 6.17 4.30

National (cities and towns) 35.71 8.92 5.96 23.51 14.42 6.13 5.36

Source: 2000 Population Census

Table 1 Tenure type and location in Beijing and Guangzhou

Figure 6 Sampled communities of 2006 Beijing survey

Figure 7 Sampled communities of 2005 Guangzhou survey

Moving frequencies since 1980

Urban core Inner suburb

Frequencies Frequencies

0 149 215

1 130 566

2 20 95

3 or more 1 12

Total 300 888

Moving frequencies since 1980 Urban core Inner suburb Outer suburb

Frequency Frequency Frequency

0 73 26 2

1 212 300 75

2 156 100 84

3 51 47 21

4 or more 8 30 18

Total 500 503 200

Table 2 moving frequencies in Beijing since 1980

Table 3 Moving frequencies in Guangzhou since 1980

Previous housing location

Current housing location Total

Urban core Inner suburb

Urban core 107 168 275

Inner suburb 38 471 509

Outer suburb

2 19 21

Total 147 658 805

Previous housing location

Current housing location Total

Urban core Inner suburb Outer suburb

Urban core 352 194 50 596

Inner suburb 55 262 40 357

Outer suburb

2 0 8486

Total 409 456 174 1039

Table 4 Comparison of current and previous housing location in Beijing

Table 5 Comparison of current and previous housing location in Guangzhou

Work unit Housing bureau Developer Private homeowners

Inheritance or conferment Self-built

Others Total

N % % N % % N % % N % % N % % N % % N % % N % % Within the central city

64 15.3 61.0 28 23.0 26.7 3 2.6 2.9 6 8.8 5.7 3 14.3 2.9 0 0

0

1 10.0 1.0 105 13.2

100

From central city to inner suburb

86 20.6 51.5 28 23.0 16.8 35 29.9 21.0 12 17.6 7.2 2 9.5 1.2 1 2.4 .6 3 30.0 1.8 167 20.9

100

From inner suburb to central city

19 4.5 50.0 7 5.7 18.4 8 6.8 21.1 2 2.9 5.3 1 4.8 2.6 1 2.4 2.6 0 0 0 38 4.8

100

Within the inner suburb

243 58.1 52.0 56 45.9 12.0 70 59.8 15.0 43 63.2 9.2 11 52.4 2.4 38 90.5 8.1 6 60.0 1.3 467 58.5

100

From outer suburb to central city

0 0 0 2 1.6 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .3

100

From outer to inner suburb

6 1.4 31.6 1 .8 5.3 1 .9 5.3 5 7.4 26.3 4 19.0 21.1 2 4.8 10.5 0 0 0 19 2.4

100

Total 418 100.0 52.4 122 100.0 15.3 117 100.0 14.7 68 100.0 8.5 21 100.0 2.6 42 100.0 5.3 10 100.0 1.3 798 100.0 100

Table 7 Types of residential movement by housing source in Beijing (N, %column, %row)

Source: 2006 Beijing survey

Work unit Housing bureau DeveloperPrivate

homeownersInheritance or

conferment Self-builtTotal

N % % N % % N % % N % % N % % N % % N % %

Within the central city

84 39.3 23.9 50 64.914.2

138

30.5 39.2 46 21.6 13.1 12 41.4 3.4 22 40.7 6.3 352 33.9100

From central city to inner suburb

27 12.6 13.9 13 16.96.7

111

24.6 57.2 31 14.6 16.0 1 3.4 .5 11 20.4 5.7 194 18.7

100

From central city to outer suburb

0 0 0 0 0 0 38 8.4 76.0 11 5.2 22.0 0 0 0 1 1.9 2.0 50 4.8

100

From inner suburb to central city

17 7.9 30.9 7 9.112.7

13 2.9 23.6 14 6.6 25.5 2 6.9 3.6 2 3.7 3.6 55 5.3

100

Within the inner suburb

80 37.4 30.5 6 7.82.3

96 21.2 36.6 65 30.5 24.8 3 10.3 1.1 12 22.2 4.6 262 25.2

100

From inner to outer suburb

0 0 0 1 1.32.5

25 5.5 62.5 13 6.1 32.5 1 3.4 2.5 0 0 0 40 3.8

100

From outer suburb to central city

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .2 50.0 1 .5 50.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .2

100

Within the outer suburb

6 2.8 7.1 0 0 0 30 6.6 35.7 32 15.0 38.1 10 34.5 11.9 6 11.1 7.1 84 8.1

100

Total 214100.

020.6 77 100.0

7.4

452

100.0

43.5213

100.0

20.5 29100.

02.8 54

100.0

5.2103

9100.

0100

Note: there is zero record for the move from outer to inner suburb; therefore it is excluded from the table.Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey

Table 6 Types of residential movement by housing source in Guangzhou (N, %column, %row)

Did not move (N=329)

Moved within the central city (N=98)

Moved within the suburb (N= 461)

Moved from the central city to the suburb (N=158)

Mean S.D. Mean S.D. Mean S.D. Mean S.D.

F/χ2

Age 54.44 13.476 56.19 13.373 47.77 12.929 50.54 13.090 21.878***

Gender (0=female) 0.5988 0.491 0.6020 0.492 0.6182 0.486 0.5886 0.494 0.188 Marital status (0= others)

0.8116 0.392 0.8163 0.389 0.8568 0.351 0.8797 0.326 1.749

Education (1=primary,2=secondary, 3=tertiary)

1.98 0.607 2.14 0.658 2.26 0.586 2.26 0.640 14.374***

Household size 2.98 1.103 3.14 0.942 2.90 1.025 2.89 0.903 1.907 Household income 30167.

21 18761.1

56 37567.76

24195.256

38497.31

26665.910

43340.38

25324.064

13.046***

Car ownership 0.09 0.301 0.19 0.391 0.18 0.414 0.15 0.411 3.522* CCP (0= non-CCP) 0.2188 0.414 0.3061 0.463 0.3362 0.473 0.2975 0.459 4.379** Danwei type (1= non-state-owned enterprises, 2=governmental department and institutions,3= state-owned enterprises)

2.13 0.904 2.53 0.706 2.19 0.845 2.32 0.815 6.405***

Job rank (0= others, 1= middle to high)

0.1672 0.374 0.2347 0.426 0.2278 0.420 0.2468 0.433 2.033

Average commuting time

31.4 27.055 37.22 27.574 28.40 23.437 39.29 26.069 7.407***

Housing floor space 88.59 100.090 49.38 21.450 72.62 44.488 61.38 15.746 12.609***

Housing price 2.42 2.847 4.32 6.430 12.39 21.492 11.65 21.905 9.954*** Housing tenure (0= rent)

0.6839 0.466 0.6327 0.485 0.7787 0.416 0.7722 0.421 5.156**

Housing source (0 = private)

0.5076 0.501 0.8776 0.329 0.6421 0.480 0.6835 0.467 17.079***

Year of moving 1967 12.847 1991 7.199 1994 7.052 1994 6.334 614.316***

Year of purchase 1991 14.466 1996 8.451 1997 5.275 1997 4.842 19.688***

Movement frequencies

0 0 1.09 0.324 1.21 0.537 1.14 0.399 651.742***

Table 10 who moved or did not move in Beijing?

Source: 2006 Beijing survey

Did no move (N=101)

Moved within central city (N=352)

Moved within the suburb (N=386)

Moved from central to suburb (N= 244)

Mean S.D. Mean S.D. Mean S.D. Mean S.D.

F/χ2

Age 41.33 12.803 40.25 9.030 36.23 8.601 38.23 9.132 14.860*** Gender (0=female) 0.6931 0.4635 0.5702 0.496 0.6172 0.4867 0.6173 0.487 1.797 Marital status (0= others) 0.6733 0.471 0.8367 0.370 0.8021 0.398 0.7860 0.410 4.446** Education (1=primary,2=secondary, 3=tertiary)

2.198 0.633 2.195 0.527 2.300 0.523 2.259 0.484 2.743*

Household size 3.08 0.717 3.06 0.818 2.87 0.913 2.89 0.898 4.186** Household income 4.66 2.797 4.11 2.189 7.33 9.316 7.31 7.640 18.164*** Car ownership 0.02 0.140 0.04 0.197 0.13 0.349 0.19 0.406 15.060*** CCP (0= non-CCP) 0.0198 0.140 0.1146 0.319 0.0885 0.284 0.0782 0.269 3.084* Danwei type (1= non-state-owned enterprises, 0= others)

0.5248 0.502 0.5244 0.500 0.6094 0.489 0.6667 0.472 4.853**

Job rank (0= others, 1= middle to high)

0.1188 0.325 0.1777 0.383 0.2500 0.434 0.2634 0.441 4.859**

Average commuting time 25.36 17.646 29.15 18.549 26.29 20.480 35.16 18.426 12.140*** Housing floor space 63.25 28.675 65.69 33.088 79.31 31.571 76.51 24.971 16.685*** Housing price 4.76 6.457 14.09 16.488 24.11 20.319 26.90 16.304 42.790*** Housing tenure (0= rent) 0.6931 0.464 0.7307 0.444 0.7943 0.405 0.8889 0.315 9.178*** Housing source (0 = private) 0.5446 0.500 0.3811 0.486 0.2422 0.429 0.1646 0.372 23.819*** Year of moving 1974.00 9.745 1994.65 6.636 1998.74 5.283 1999.79 3.756 509.298*** Year of purchase 1979.99 17.036 1994.35 8.025 1998.51 4.200 1999.60 3.880 144.375*** Movement frequencies 0 0 1.66 0.763 1.82 1.108 1.52 0.883 113.995***

Table 11 who moved or did not move in Guangzhou?

Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey

Summary and discussion• Residential mobility in Chinese cities is

closely related to the changing housing provision structure. The housing reform results in a mixed housing system and subsequently influences the residential mobility.

• State-redistributive and market-reward mechanisms are entangled in the process of residential relocation, very differently in Beijing and Guangzhou.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

To

tal

inve

stm

ent

(100

mil

lio

n)

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

Total investment in urban housing Real estate investment

The share of real estate investment

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ho

usin

g f

loo

r sp

ace (

1000 s

q.m

.)

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Total housing floor space completed Commodity housing floor space completed

The share of commodity housing

Figure 1,2 The share of real estate development in housing provision by investment and housing floor spaceSource: China Statistical Yearbook, 2006

(Includes rural self-built housing)

Privatization of realestate investment

Renters Owners Total

N % N % N %

Within the central city 38 19.4 69 11.3 107 13.3

From central city to inner suburb 38 19.4 130 21.3 168 20.9

From inner suburb to central city 6 3.1 32 5.3 38 4.7

Within the inner suburb 108 55.1 363 59.6 471 58.5

From outer suburb to central city 2 1.0 0 0 2 .2

From outer to inner suburb 4 2.0 15 2.5 19 2.4

Total 196 100.0 609 100.0 805 100.0

Table 8 Types of residential movement by housing tenure in Beijing (N, %column, %row)

Source: 2006 Beijing survey

Renters Owners Total

N % N % N %

Within the central city 94 43.3% 258 31.4% 352 33.9%

From central city to inner suburb 23 10.6% 171 20.8% 194 18.7%

From central city to outer suburb 4 1.8% 46 5.6% 50 4.8%

From inner suburb to central city 16 7.4% 39 4.7% 55 5.3%

Within the inner suburb 49 22.6% 213 25.9% 262 25.2%

From inner to outer suburb 5 2.3% 35 4.3% 40 3.8%

From outer suburb to central city 0 0 2 .2% 2 .2%

Within the outer suburb 26 12.0% 58 7.1% 84 8.1%

Total 217 100.0% 822 100.0% 1039 100.0%

Note: there is zero record for the move from outer to inner suburb; therefore it is excluded from the table.Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey

Table 9 Types of residential movement by housing tenure in Guangzhou (N, %column, %row)

Did not move Moved within the central city

Moved within the suburb

B Exp(B) B Exp(B) B Exp(B) Age .028 1.028** .021 1.021 -.022 .978* Household size .221 1.248 .301 1.351* .173 1.189 Household income -.025 .975*** -.016 .984* -.011 .989* Gender 0= Female

-.051 .950 -.098 .906 -.186 .831

Gender 1= Male

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Education 1= primary

.084 1.088 -.461 .631 .052 1.053

Education 2= secondary

.284 1.328 -.058 .944 .327 1.387

Education 3= tertiary

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Marital status 0= otherwise

.406 1.501 .695 2.005 .326 1.385

Marital status 1= married

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

CCP 0=non-CCP

.101 1.106 .021 1.021 -.447 .639*

CCP 1= CCP

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Danwei type 1= non-state-owned enterprises

.568 1.766* -.317 .728 .389 1.475

Danwei type 2= governmental department and institutions

.010 1.010 -.134 .875 .363 1.438

Danwei type 3= state-owned enterprises

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Job rank 0= others

-.047 .954 -.010 .990 -.077 .926

Job rank 1= middle to high

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Housing source 0=others

.696 2.006** -1.006 .366** -.026 .974

Housing source 1= danwei/housing bureau

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Intercept -1.177 -1.579 2.126 Number of cases 1046 -2*Log likelihood (intercept only)

2561.240

-2*Log likelihood (final) 2360.072 Chi-square 201.168***

Table 12 multinomial regression analysis for Beijing

Note: ***indicates significant at 0.001, ** significant at 0.01, * significant at 0.05; The reference group is moved from the central city to the suburbSource: 2005 Guangzhou survey

Did not move Moved within the central city

Moved within the suburb

B Exp(B) B Exp(B) B Exp(B) Age .046 1.047** .007 1.007 -.040 .961*** Household size .338 1.403* .279 1.321* -.055 .946 Household income -.083 .920* -.215 .807*** .004 1.004 Gender (0=female) -.566 .568* .111 1.117 -.056 .945 Gender (1=male) 0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) . Education (0=primary) .381 1.464 .188 1.207 .613 1.845 Education (1=secondary)

-.823 .439* -.491 .612* -.119 .888

Education (3= tertiary) 0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) . Marital status (0=non-married)

.982 2.670** -.283 .753 -.576 .562*

Marital status (1=married)

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

CCP (0= non-ccp) 1.619 5.050* -.592 .553 -.163 .849 CCP (1= ccp) 0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) . Danwei (0= private) -.065 .937 .051 1.052 -.137 .872 Danwei (1= state-owned enterprises or governmental institutions)

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Job rank (0= others) .522 1.685 -.019 .981 .121 1.128 Job rank (1= middle to high rank)

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Housing source (0=private)

-1.386 .250*** -.788 .455*** -.570 .565**

Housing source (1=danwei or housing bureau)

0(b) . 0(b) . 0(b) .

Intercept -3.825 1.777 2.887 Number of cases 1077 -2*Log likelihood (intercept only)

2743.992

-2*Log likelihood (final)

2490.601

Chi-square 253.391***

Note: ***indicates significant at 0.001, ** significant at 0.01, * significant at 0.05The reference group is moved from the central city to the suburb

Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey

Table 13 multinomial regression analysis for Guangzhou