THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS)

Tools for the development, application, and analysis of

hydrologic and ecosystem models

MODELING ISSUES

• Increasing complexity of problems

• Increasing need for multidisciplinary approaches

• Continued advances in science and computer technology

• New data resources

• No universal models

STARTING POINTS

• There are no universal models

• Models for different purposes require different levels of detail and comprehensiveness

• Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application

Modeling Conundrum

• Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published hypotheses and results

• Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models are not well designed for incremental improvement by others

TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWS

• Research Model Developer Complex Detail

• Application Model Developer

• Model User

• Resource Manager

• Policy Maker Condensed Analysis

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN

• PROCESS

• MODEL

• FULLY COUPLED MODELS

• LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS

• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

• ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Single Purpose

Multi-objective, Complex

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN

• PROCESS

• MODEL

• FULLY COUPLED MODELS

• LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS

• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

• ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE DESIGN

• relate directly to real world components or processes

• have input and output variables that are measurable values

• communicate solely via these input and output variables

Modules should

Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16

MODEL BUILDING TOOL - XMBUILD

SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN MMS

• USGS– PRMS

– DAFLOW

– 1-D Sediment Transport (beta)

– MODFLOW

– WEBMOD

– WETMOD

• OTHER– TOPMODEL

– Hydro-17 (NWS snowmelt)

– Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) (ARS)

– ENNS Model (modified HBV, Austria)

• IN DEVELOPMENT– PRMS-MODFLOW-DAFLOW-UnsatZone

– Sacramento Model (NWS)

– PHREEQC, OTIS, OTEQ, AHM (QW models)

– RZWQM, RUSLE, SWAT, Generic Crop (ARS Ag models)

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN

• PROCESS

• MODEL

• FULLY COUPLED MODELS

• LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS

• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

• ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling

PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone

Streamflow

Unsaturated Zone Model

(Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN

• PROCESS

• MODEL

• FULLY COUPLED MODELS

• LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS

• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

• ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS

Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Database

Fish ModelData Management Interface (DMI)

MMS Model

Off-the-shelf Model

LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS

Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Database

Fish Model

Data Management Interface (DMI)

MMS Model

Off-the-shelf Model

Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

MULTI-MODEL CONTROLLER

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN

• PROCESS

• MODEL

• FULLY COUPLED MODELS

• LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS

• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

• ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Watershed and River Systems Management

Program

Recreation

Municipal & Industrial

Riparian Habitat

Hydropower

Irrigation

Endangered Species

Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.

RiverWare – Lower Colorado River

Upper Gunnison DSS

HydrologicDatabase

Hydromet

Real-time climate data feed

RiverWareReservoir and River System

Operations Model

Object User InterfaceInterface for data visualization

and modeling

Modular Modeling SystemPhysical Process Models

DMI

DMI

DMI

MMI

WARSMP BASINS

YAKIMA

GUNNISONTRUCKEE

RIO GRANDESAN JUAN

SACRAMENTO

SAN JOAQUIN

CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL

CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL

IN DEVELOPMENT

IN DEVELOPMENT, MMS PLUS

WARSMP RELATED

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN

• PROCESS

• MODEL

• FULLY COUPLED MODELS

• LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS

• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

• ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLS

Currently Available

Statistical and Graphical Analyses

Parameter Optimization

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Beta TestingShuffle Complex Evolution Optimization

Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM)

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)

Visualization

GIS WEASEL

Vegetation Type (USFS)

Vegetation Density (USFS)

Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)

DIGITAL DATABASESDIGITAL DATABASES (1 km2 resolution)

STATSGO - Soils Data, 1 km2 (USDA)

AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

Forecast Methodologies

- Historic data as analog for the future

Point measures (ESP)

Radar data (NEXRAD)

- Synthetic time-series using regional info

- Atmospheric model output

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

3-D Visualization

CURRENT FOCUS ISSUES IN MMS DEVELOPMENT AND

APPLICATION

• Coupling of SW and GW Models

• A Priori Parameter Estimation

• Incorporation of Remotely Sensed Data

• Coupling of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Models

• Improved Hydrologic and Ecosystem Process Simulation

• Integrated Analysis and Support Tools

PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone

Streamflow

Unsaturated Zone Model

(Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)

A Priori Parameter Estimation

Selected Basins

Hydrologic Landscape Units

Sleepers River, Vermont

Trout Lake, Wisconsin

Panola Mountain, Georgia

Luquillo, Puerto Rico

Loch Vale, Colorado

WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM

USGS

FOCUS ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED THROUGH

COLLABORATIVE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY EFFORTS

University of Arizona

NASA funded -- Southwest Regional Earth Science Applications Center -- Integration of remotely sensed data

NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology

and Riparian Areas (SAHRA)

UNIVERSITY COLLABORATION

University of Colorado

NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecasts

NRCS Streamflow Forecast Points (1200)

INTEGRATED SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the

Modular Modeling System (MMS)

•US Geological Survey

•Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany

•US Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

•US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

U.S. MULTI-AGENCY MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING

• Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)

• Army Corp of Engineers (COE)

• US Geological Survey (USGS)

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin (NOAA)

Facilitates cooperation in R&D of multi-media environmental models, frameworks, and databases for use

in human and environmental health risk assessment Environmental Protection

Agency (EPA)

Department of Energy (DOE)

US Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

(http://www.iscmem.org)

MMS International Collaboration

• Public Works Research Institute, Japan

• Korean Water Resources Corp., South Korea

• Chinese Academy of Sciences, Geography and Natural Resources Institute, Beijing

• Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany

• University of Bodenkultur, Vienna, Austria

• International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

SUMMARY

• Toolbox approach to model and system development

• Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systems

• Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs

• Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology

Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul

“A fool with a tool is still a fool.”

System Development magazine

POINT

PRECIPITATION - RUNOFF MODELING PROJECT

OPEN SHOP

CONSULTATION

COLLABORATION

MORE INFORMATION

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weasel

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmp

http://oms.gpsr.colostate.edu

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/projects/

SW_precip_runoff/papers