The Montreal Protocol and Climate ChangeThe Montreal Protocol and Climate Change

Marco GonzalezMarco GonzalezOzone SecretariatOzone Secretariat

UNEPUNEPDECEMBER 2007DECEMBER 2007

2

Vienna Convention / Montreal ProtocolVienna Convention / Montreal Protocol

Objectives:Objectives:–VC: to protect human health and the VC: to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects environment against adverse effects resulting from modifications of the ozone resulting from modifications of the ozone layer layer

–MP: to protect the ozone layer MP: to protect the ozone layer

In addition, the 4In addition, the 4thth preamble paragraph to the preamble paragraph to the Montreal Protocol statesMontreal Protocol states–““ConsciousConscious of the potential climatic effects of of the potential climatic effects of emissions of these substances,”emissions of these substances,”

Therefore climate change was consideredTherefore climate change was considered

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The Montreal ProtocolThe Montreal Protocol

A successful multilateral environmental A successful multilateral environmental agreementagreement–Phased-out over 95% of global consumption Phased-out over 95% of global consumption of ozone-depleting substances in just 20 of ozone-depleting substances in just 20 yearsyears

–Ozone layer on path to recover by mid-Ozone layer on path to recover by mid-centurycentury

–Averted many millions cases of cancer Averted many millions cases of cancer deaths and cataract casesdeaths and cataract cases

4

Global Annual Consumption: Parties had achieved Global Annual Consumption: Parties had achieved an aggregate 96% reduction in all ODSsan aggregate 96% reduction in all ODSs

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

1986

*19

87*

1988

*19

89*

1990

*19

91*

1992

*19

93*

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Ann

ual C

onsu

mpt

ion

in

Thou

sand

s of

OD

P to

nnes

Article 5 PartiesNon-Article 5 Parties

96%

4%

5S. Montzka, NOAA/ESRL, 2006

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Effects of the Montreal Protocol and Amendments: Effects of the Montreal Protocol and Amendments: Averted many millions cases of cancer deaths and Averted many millions cases of cancer deaths and

cataract casescataract cases

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Parallels between the conventions and the Parallels between the conventions and the protocolsprotocols

The Vienna Convention The Vienna Convention adopted in 1985adopted in 1985

The Montreal Protocol The Montreal Protocol adopted in 1987adopted in 1987

Entry into force inEntry into force in 1989 1989Amended 4 times: 1990, Amended 4 times: 1990,

1992, 1997 & 19991992, 1997 & 1999Adjusted 6 timesAdjusted 6 times96 substances 96 substances

controlledcontrolled 191 Parties so far191 Parties so far

The Framework The Framework Convention on Climate Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992 adopted in 1992

The Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997adopted in 1997

Entry into force inEntry into force in 2005 2005Amended once in 2006Amended once in 2006Basket of 6 gases Basket of 6 gases

controlledcontrolled176 Parties so far176 Parties so far

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SubstanceSubstance GWPGWP ODPODP

CFC-12CFC-12 10,72010,720 ±± 37503750 11

CFC-114CFC-114 98809880 ±± 34603460 11

CFC-115CFC-115 72507250 ±± 25402540 0.60.6

CFC-113CFC-113 60306030 ±± 21102110 0.80.8

CFC-11CFC-11 68006800 ±± 16401640 11

HCFC-142bHCFC-142b 22702270 ±± 800800 0.0650.065

HCFC-22HCFC-22 17801780 ±± 620620 0.0550.055

HCFC-141bHCFC-141b 713713 ±± 250250 0.110.11

Halon-1301Halon-1301 70307030 ±± 24602460 1010

Halon-1211Halon-1211 18601860 ±± 650650 33

Halon-2402Halon-2402 16201620 ±± 570570 66

Carbon TetrachlorideCarbon Tetrachloride 13801380 ±± 480480 1.11.1

Methyl ChloroformMethyl Chloroform 144144 ±± 5050 0.10.1

Methyl BromideMethyl Bromide 55 ±± 22 0.60.6

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Consumption under Montreal Protocol: Measured in Consumption under Montreal Protocol: Measured in equivalent GWP-tonnes of COequivalent GWP-tonnes of CO22 emissions – note the emissions – note the

increasing significance of HCFCsincreasing significance of HCFCs

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,0001

98

9

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

Year

Co

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GW

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Other ODSs

Halons HCFCs

CFCs

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Climate Benefits of Ozone ProtectionClimate Benefits of Ozone Protection

IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Ozone and Climate IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Ozone and Climate first highlighted the GWP-weighted emissions first highlighted the GWP-weighted emissions

December 2006: Velders, et al., The Importance December 2006: Velders, et al., The Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Climateof the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Climate

– MP will reduce GHG emissions by 135 GtCO2-eq. between MP will reduce GHG emissions by 135 GtCO2-eq. between 1990 and 20101990 and 2010

– This is delaying climate change by up to 12 yearsThis is delaying climate change by up to 12 years– If voluntary efforts & domestic measures from 1970s are If voluntary efforts & domestic measures from 1970s are

taken into account, delay is up to 41 years taken into account, delay is up to 41 years

11Velders, Andersen, Daniel, Fahey, & McFarland, PNAS, 2007

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Triumph in MontrealTriumph in Montreal

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Developing Countries HCFC ScheduleDeveloping Countries HCFC Schedule

New Control ScheduleNew Control Schedule Old Control ScheduleOld Control Schedule

2013:2013: Freeze at average of Freeze at average of 2009-2010 levels2009-2010 levels

2015:2015: 10% reduction10% reduction2020:2020: 35% reduction 35% reduction 2025:2025: 67.5% reduction67.5% reduction2030:2030: 100% reduction while 100% reduction while

allowing 2.5% for allowing 2.5% for refrigeration and A/C refrigeration and A/C servicing until 2040.servicing until 2040.

--

2016:2016:Freeze at 2015 Freeze at 2015 levelslevels

----

2040:2040:100% reduction100% reduction

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Article 5 HCFC Control Measures – Old vs NewArticle 5 HCFC Control Measures – Old vs New

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

2040

Year

Con

trol

mea

sure

(m

axim

um li

mit)

from

bas

e lin

e

New A5 HCFC Measures

Old A5 HCFC Measures

New Base

2009-10

Old Base 2015

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Article 5 HCFC Consumption: Article 5 HCFC Consumption: Savings from the New HCFC Adjustments Savings from the New HCFC Adjustments

(assumes freeze at previous base level of 2015)(assumes freeze at previous base level of 2015)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

Year

HC

FC

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(T

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Savings by New AdjustmentProjected ConsumptionActual Consumption

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Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment DecisionKey Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment DecisionParagraph 5 on financial and technical assistance: Paragraph 5 on financial and technical assistance:

““To agree that the funding available through the To agree that the funding available through the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of MP in the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of MP in the upcoming replenishments shall be stable and upcoming replenishments shall be stable and sufficient to meet all agreed incremental costs to sufficient to meet all agreed incremental costs to enable A5 parties to comply with the accelerated enable A5 parties to comply with the accelerated phase-out schedule both for production and phase-out schedule both for production and consumption sectors as set out above, and based on consumption sectors as set out above, and based on that understanding, to also direct the Executive that understanding, to also direct the Executive Committee of Multilateral Fund to make the Committee of Multilateral Fund to make the necessary changes to the eligibility criteria related to necessary changes to the eligibility criteria related to the post-1995 facilities and second conversions.”the post-1995 facilities and second conversions.”

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Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment DecisionKey Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment DecisionParagraph 9 on climate change:Paragraph 9 on climate change:““To encourage Parties to promote the selection of To encourage Parties to promote the selection of alternatives to HCFCs that minimize environmental alternatives to HCFCs that minimize environmental impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as meeting other health, safety and economic meeting other health, safety and economic considerations.”considerations.”

Paragraph 11 on climate changeParagraph 11 on climate change““To … give priority to cost-effective projects and To … give priority to cost-effective projects and programmes which focus on … [s]ubstitutes and programmes which focus on … [s]ubstitutes and alternatives that minimize other impacts on the alternatives that minimize other impacts on the environment, including on the climate, taking into environment, including on the climate, taking into account global warming potential, energy use, and account global warming potential, energy use, and other relevant facts.”other relevant facts.”

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GAZING INTO THE FUTUREGAZING INTO THE FUTURE

An agreement that is doing so much for ozone

—and for climate—clearly deserves our attention.

It has much to teach us. .