The Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment ofSocietal and Ecosystem Metabolism grammar:Theoretical Relevance and Practical Applications

Mario GIAMPIETROICREA Research Professor<giampietro@liphe4.org>

Content of the presentation:

1. Study the evolutionary trend of structural changes over a large sample of countries (82) 1980-2007 showing the existence of a clear attractor

2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showing the existence of clear benchmarks describing the metabolic characteristics of functional compartments of society

3. Conclusions

Would you believe someone telling you that at the next World Cup the players of the various EU national teams, during the monthof that competition, will eat ¼ of what they eat now, and will generatea ¼ of the excrements they generate now?

Total mass = 70 kg

Endosomatic Flow = 81 W

Metabolic Rate = 1.16 W/kg

WHOLE level n

PARTS level n-1

kg W/kg W

Liver 1.8 9.7 17.4Brain 1.4 11.6 16.2Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4Kidneys 0.3 21.3 6.4Muscles 28.0 0.6 16.8Fat 15.0 0.2 3.0Others 23.2 0.6 14.0

brain

heart

liverkidney

muscles

1 kg of brain = 10 kg of body1 kg of heart = 21 kg of body

!!!!!!!!

We don’t believe it because we have a multi-level knowledge of human metabolism!

Whole Weight70 kg

Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg

Parts

liver2.5%

brain2.0%

heart0.4%

kidneys0.4%

muscles40.0%

Fat21.4%

others33.1%

Metabolic rate: W/kg

Weight: kg

Total Body 70.0 1.2 81.0

kg W/kg WORGANS of an ADULT MAN (70 kg mass)

Liver 1.8 9.7 17.4Brain 1.4 11.6 16.2Heart 0.3 21.3 6.4Kidneys 0.3 21.3 6.4Muscles 28.0 0.6 16.8Fat tissue 15.0 0.2 3.0

Others

brain

musclesheart

fat

liver

Definition of lower level metabolic elements useful for generating a mosaic effect

Total mass70 kg

Total Energy flow 81 W

Others 23.2 0.6 14.0

Metabolic rate 1.2 W/kg

kidneys

HumanBody

Whole Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (hours per year)

Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h

HAi EMRi ETi

Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year)

Functional Compartments of CATALONIA

EM sector 0.06 2,000 120BM sector 1.95 331 547SG sector 3.6 75 270AG sector 0.15 175 27HH sector 55.1 2.8 155

Society 60.8 18.4 1,120

THA

EMRSA TET

HouseholdSector (HH)

BM

EM

Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (year)

Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year)

Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h

SG

CATALONIA2005

AG

Parts

BM sectors3.2%

out of scale!

EM sector0.1%

SG sector6%

HH sector91%

EMRi: MJ/hour

HAi: hours/year

AG sector0.2%

1. Study the evolutionary trend of structural changes over a large sample of countries (82) 1980-2007 showing the existence of a clear attractor

Introducing Bio-Economic Pressure as abiophysical indicator of economic development

% o

f wor

k fo

rce

in in

dust

ryIn

fant

Mor

talit

y R

ate

STAGE 1

STAGE 2

STAGE 1

STAGE 2

1980 2007

Infa

nt M

orta

lity

Rat

e

Infa

nt M

orta

lity

Rat

eL

ife E

xpec

tanc

y at

Bir

th

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

at B

irth

BEP BEP

BEP BEP

STAGE 2

STAGE 2

STAGE 1

STAGE 1

Infant Mortality Rate vs BEP

Life Expectancy at Birth vs BEP

Studying structural changes of socio-economic systemsdue to economic development/technical progress

USA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1820 1870 1913 1950 1992 1820 1870 1913 1950 1992 1820 1870 1913 1950 1992

Shar

e (%

)

USAGermany

JapanChina

Russia

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Mining, manufacturing,construction and utilities

Services

UKJapan China

RussiaGermany

UK

USA China

Russia

JapanGermany

UK

Changes in economic structure for selected countries Source of figure: MA 2005.

The position of 82 countries over 27 years – 2214 points!

The position of 82 countries over 27 years – 2214 points!

2. A comparison of EU14 1992-2005 showing the existence of clear benchmarks describing the metabolic characteristics of functional compartments of society

How useful is the indicator TET/GDP?

the energy intensity of “an economy”

TETGDP$

MJ

El Salvador = 12.6 MJ/$

Finland = 12.6 MJ/$

=

TETTHAGDPTHA

Year 1997

MJUS$ =12.6 !!!

No significance !No external referent !

Finland = 29.73 MJ/hr

El Salvador = 2.92 MJ/hr

Finland = 2.35 $/hr El Salvador = 0.23 $/hr

(20,600 $/year p.c) (2,020 $/year p.c)

GDPTHA

TETTHA

€/hour

MJ/hour

At the level n – the whole society

GDPTHA

€/hour

TETTHA

MJ/hour

Whole Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (hours per year)

Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h

HAi EMRi ETi

Gh(year) MJ/h PJ(year)

Functional Compartments of CATALONIA

EM sector 0.06 2,000 120BM sector 1.95 331 547SG sector 3.6 75 270AG sector 0.15 175 27HH sector 55.1 2.8 155

Society 60.8 18.4 1,120

THA

EMRSA TET

HouseholdSector (HH)

BM

EM

Total Human Activity60.8 Gh (year)

Total Energy Throughput 1,120 PJ (year)

Exosomatic Metabolic Rate 18.4 MJ/h

SG

CATALONIA2005

AG

Parts

BM sectors3.2%

out of scale!

EM sector0.1%

SG sector6%

HH sector91%

EMRi: MJ/hour

HAi: hours/year

AG sector0.2%

MJ/

hour

GDPTHA

€/hour

Whole Societylevel n

PW sector(production)level n-1

HH sector(consumption)level n-1

At the level n-1 – production vs consumption(Paid Work sector versus Household sector)

GDPHAPW

EMRHH

EMRPW

EMRSA

ETi

HAi

€/hour

MJ/

hour

The metabolic pattern of Germany across hierarchical levels

GDPi HAi

EMRi

GDP/hour

HH THA

Level n-1

Level n-1

Level n

Level n-2

Level n-2

Level n-2

Level n-1

EMRAS

MJ/hour

MJ/hour

MJ/hour

€/hour

€/hour

€/hour

EMRHH

EMRPW

GDP/THA

ELPPW

ELPAG ELPPS* ELPSG

17 MJ/hour

3 €/hour150 MJ/hour

27 €/hour

2 MJ/hour

Level n-2

Level n

14 €/hour 33 €/hour28 €/hour

EMRAG

60 MJ/hour

EMRPS

300 MJ/hour

EMRSG

80 MJ/hour

EXTERNALREFERENT

EXTERNALREFERENT

EXTERNALREFERENT

Level n

Level n-1

Level n-2

Level n-2Level n-2

The metabolic pattern of Spain across levels

Level n

Level n-1

Level n-2

Level n-2Level n-2

The metabolic pattern of UK across levels

BelgiumFinland Sweden

France GermanyNetherlands

Austria ItalyUK

Greece Portugal Spain

BelgiumFinland Sweden

France GermanyNetherlands

Austria ItalyUK

Greece Portugal Spain

Productive sector

Service sector

GDP/hour

Exploring the metabolic pattern at level n-2

HouseholdEner

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

MJ/h

our

Ireland

Finland

Portugal

Sweeden

whole

whole whole

whole

part part

partpart

GERMANY

IRELAND

UK

SPAIN

1992-2005

1992-2005

1992-2005

1992-2005

Level n Level n

Level nLevel n

Level n-1Level n-1

Level n-1Level n-1

Level n-2

Level n-2Level n-2

!

The metabolic pattern of EU countries across levels

3. Conclusions

The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization

1. Pre Industrial Phase [c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765] A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC); B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC); C - Neolithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC); D - Watts steam engine of 1765 starting the Industrial Phase (1930-2025) 2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated]E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value; F - Peak energy-use; G - Present energy-use; H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value3. Post Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond]

J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.