VILNIUS GEDIMINAS TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY

Andželika KOMAROVSKA

THE MULTICRITERIA ASSESSMENT OF THE TERRITORY PLANNING PROCESS: THE INVESTMENT ASPECT

SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATION

TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES, CIVIL ENGINEERING (02T)

Vilnius 2013

Doctoral dissertation was prepared at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University in 2008–2013. Scientific Supervisor

Prof Dr Habil Leonas USTINOVIČIUS (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Technological Sciences, Civil Engineering – 02T).

The dissertation is being defended at the Council of Scientific Field of Civil Engineering at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University: Chairman Prof Dr Marija BURINSKIENĖ (Vilnius Gediminas Technical

University, Technological Sciences, Civil Engineering – 02T). Members:

Dr Raimondas BLIŪDŽIUS (Kaunas University of Technology, Technological Sciences, Civil Engineering – 02T), Prof Dr Birutė GALINIENĖ (Vilnius University, Social Sciences, Economics – 04S), Prof Dr Habil Artūras KAKLAUSKAS (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Technological Sciences, Civil Engineering – 02T), Prof Dr Habil Edmundas Kazimieras ZAVADSKAS (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Technological Sciences, Civil Engineering – 02T).

Opponents: Assoc Prof Dr Jurgita ANTUCHEVIČIENĖ (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Technological Sciences, Civil Engineering – 02T), Prof Dr Dalė DZEMYDIENĖ (Mykolas Romeris University, Technological Sciences, Informatics Engineering – 07T).

The dissertation will be defended at the public meeting of the Council of Scientific Field of Civil Engineering in the Senate Hall of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University at 10 a. m. on 28 January 2014. Address: Saulėtekio al. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania. Tel.: +370 5 274 4952, +370 5 274 4956; fax +370 5 270 0112; e-mail: doktor@vgtu.lt The summary of the doctoral dissertation was distributed on 27 December 2013. A copy of the doctoral dissertation is available for review at the Library of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (Saulėtekio al. 14, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania).

© Andželika Komarovska, 2013

VILNIAUS GEDIMINO TECHNIKOS UNIVERSITETAS

Andželika KOMAROVSKA

TERITORIJŲ PLANAVIMO PROCESO DAUGIATIKSLIS VERTINIMAS INVESTICINIU ASPEKTU

DAKTARO DISERTACIJOS SANTRAUKA

TECHNOLOGIJOS MOKSLAI, STATYBOS INŽINERIJA (02T)

Vilnius 2013

Disertacija rengta 2008–2013 metais Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitete. Mokslinis vadovas

prof. habil. dr. Leonas USTINOVIČIUS (Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitetas, technologijos mokslai, statybos inžinerija – 02T).

Disertacija ginama Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universiteto Statybos inžinerijos mokslo krypties taryboje: Pirmininkė

prof. dr. Marija BURINSKIENĖ (Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitetas, technologijos mokslai, statybos inžinerija – 02T).

Nariai: dr. Raimondas BLIŪDŽIUS (Kauno technologijos universitetas, technologijos mokslai, statybos inžinerija – 02T), prof. dr. Birutė GALINIENĖ (Vilniaus universitetas, socialiniai mokslai, ekonomika – 04S), prof. habil. dr. Artūras KAKLAUSKAS (Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitetas, technologijos mokslai, statybos inžinerija – 02T), prof. habil. dr. Edmundas Kazimieras ZAVADSKAS (Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitetas, technologijos mokslai, statybos inžinerija – 02T).

Oponentai: doc. dr. Jurgita ANTUCHEVIČIENĖ (Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitetas, technologijos mokslai, statybos inžinerija – 02T), prof. dr. Dalė DZEMYDIENĖ (Mykolo Romerio universitetas, technologijos mokslai, informatikos inžinerija – 07T).

Disertacija bus ginama viešame Statybos inžinerijos mokslo krypties tarybos posėdyje 2014 m. sausio 28 d. 10 val. Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universiteto senato posėdžių salėje. Adresas: Saulėtekio al. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lietuva. Tel.: (8 5) 274 4952, (8 5) 274 4956; faksas (8 5) 270 0112; el. paštas doktor@vgtu.lt Disertacijos santrauka išsiuntinėta 2013 m. gruodžio 27 d. Disertaciją galima peržiūrėti Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universiteto bibliotekoje (Saulėtekio al. 14, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lietuva). VGTU leidyklos „Technika“ 2127-M mokslo literatūros knyga.

© Andželika Komarovska, 2013

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Introduction Topicality of the problem The effectiveness of an investment, which is determined by the

macroeconomic situation of a country, stimulates the macroeconomic development of the country. Different aspects of the relationship between economy and the construction sector were examined by various scientists all around the world. The construction investments participate in the development of the whole infrastructure, and the infrastructure development conditions the sustainable development. The concepts of sustainable development and sustainable construction are not explicitly covered by the Lithuanian law, and therefore no emphasis on the importance of sustainability is put in solutions offered in the territorial planning documents, especially in the development of new construction. In order to make effective decisions relating to the future use of the building, it is necessary to assess the legal framework for the territorial planning and the construction processes by highlighting the related risks and evaluating the engineering, technical, economic, social, environmental and other conditions with regard to sustainable development and investment promotion aspects. The construction business should participate in the creation of sustainable infrastructure. However, neither legal framework nor methodology is available for governing the extent to which the private capital is to participate in the investment into sustainable development. The problem is that investors put their private capital into the development of public infrastructure, i.e., sustainable development, and long-lasting procedures increase the payback period for their investment, thus increasing the risks of the project implementation and reducing profits. It is therefore necessary to encourage investors to finance sustainable development by establishing clear regulatory mechanisms enabling them to reduce the uncertainty of the risk.

Object of the work is the territorial planning as an integrated process, and the interaction of the governing legislation and investment processes in terms of

infrastructure development, using Vilnius region as an example.

Aim of the the work is to perform a multiple-purpose assessment of the territorial planning process, and to develop a conceptual model of territorial planning in order to attract investments for the implementation of sustainable territory development by reducing time and risk of territorial planning process while maintaining a high quality of territorial planning documents.

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Tasks of the work 1. To perform an analysis of investment opportunities, an analysis of investment risk allocation between the process participants, and an analysis of territorial planning process arrangement in Lithuania and chosen EU countries.

2. To examine the application of mathematical methods in dealing with the issues and possibilities of the effectiveness of investments, investment risk mitigation and the assurance of effective arrangement of territorial planning process.

3. To develop a methodology for the determination of an investment strategy by carrying out an integrated analysis of the region.

4. To perform a comparative verbal analysis, including the assessment of drawing up general and detailed plans in the EU countries. 5. To identify basic investment risks when drawing up territorial planning documents, using Vilnius district as an example.

6. To propose a conceptual model of territorial planning by modernizing the stages of the planning process, ensuring sustainable development and the primacy of the public interest over the private one.

7. To evaluate the efficiency of the conceptual model and to propose changes in legislative instruments. Methodology of the research The main idea, on the basis of which the study was conceived, was to

assess the investment aspect of the territorial planning process. The analyses were carried out using a systematic approach, methodological principles of the systematic analysis, verbal technique theory and the set of MCDM1 multi-purpose methods (SAW, TOPSIS, COPRAS). The theoretical analysis includes an overview of modern scientific literature and legal sources, and the summary incorporates a critical evaluation of the aforementioned information in order to determine the validity of the information, i.e., its reliability and relevance in practice. Testing examples of the proposed solutions are presented at the end of the study.

The study includes 1) an overview of scientific literature, 2) an analysis of legal documents, and 3) an analysis of statistical data. The main sources of all data are electronic (interactive) databases. Legal documents were accessed on the official websites of the European Union and the Litlex website of the Republic of Lithuania. The statistical data were taken from the website of Statistics Lithuania or Eurostat. The information gathered by Vilnius district municipality was used as well.

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Scientific novelty While preparing the dissertation, the following results, which are new to the field of civil engineering, have been achieved:

1. A comprehensive analysis of arrangement of territorial planning process according to the provisions of the governing legal acts has determined that the time period for drawing up a detailed plan has a significant negative effect on investment, the attraction of investment and its assimilation.

2. The analysis of the arrangement of the territorial planning process and the composition of plans in Germany and Poland has determined fundamental differences with the processes relating to the implementation of sustainable development in Lithuania.

3. The identification of investment risks specific only to the territorial planning process and the determination of their influence on the final outcome of the investment project.

4. The analysis of the investment environment in Vilnius district municipality has facilitated the formation of potential investment options in Vilnius district.

5. A comparative verbal analysis of territorial planning processes in Lithuania, Poland and Germany has shown that the present territorial planning process in Lithuania is not conducive to investment and business development.

6. The proposition of a conceptual model of territorial planning, including the modernization of the stages of the planning process without any deterioration in the quality of territorial planning documents under preparation.

7. The assessment of the efficiency of the proposed conceptual model of territorial planning has shown that streamlining the planning procedure enables the achievement of sustainable territorial development by ensuring the quality of the documents prepared and minimizing the related risks.

Practical value The results can be applied to validate the new territorial planning concept.

It was also proposed to modify the provisions of the legal acts regulating the territorial planning, thus developing an attractive investment environment in Lithuania and ensuring sustainable development, which requires major investment for its implementation. This, as a consequence, would be beneficial to all parties involved, and would eliminate self-minded participants from the process.

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Defended statements 1. The implementation of investment projects is directly influenced by complex procedures of the territorial planning process, which consequently increases the time period of the process, its uncertainty and the risk.

2. Since the current legal regulation does not ensure a consistent and sustainable territorial development mechanism, a new model of territorial planning is proposed to promote a sustainable territory development and develop a favourable environment to attract investment, which should also be directed towards the development of public infrastructure. The primacy of public interest over private one must be established legally.

3. A proper selection of a development strategy (of a country or a certain separate area) and the concentration of investments in selected priority areas enable to achieve an efficient and integrated territorial planning process in terms of sustainable development and investment.

Scope of the scientific work The scientific work consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusions, list of literature and list of publications on the topics of the dissertation. The

total scope of the dissertation is 151 pages, 9 formulas, 26 figures and 28 tables, 183 references were used writing the work.

1. The Lithuanian territorial planning system in the European context

The territorial planning system is examined as a complex multi-dimensional technological process which includes decisions that are affected by natural, economic, demographic, planning, technical, managerial and other factors. The influence of those factors is methodologically evaluated in three major aspects: economic, social and environmental. The cohesion of those aspects forms a sustainable territorial development. Preconditions for the sustainable development must be validated by legislation governing territorial planning, territorial planning standards and territorial planning documents. Our country's territorial planning legislation is instrumental in this process. However, criteria and methodologies for the substantiation and evaluation of the balanced development of the territory of Lithuania have not yet been validated. Therefore, the preparation process of territorial planning documents has become a complex and inefficient procedure requiring considerable amounts of time, effort, knowledge and skill, which results in a number of indefinite risk factors.

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The analysis of the organisation of territorial planning processes in Germany and Poland, and the legal regulations of the process as well as the examination of goals, objectives and the contents of prepared plans allowed to distinguish essential elements that could also be adapted to modernise the territorial planning process in Lithuania.

An analysis of scientific and legal German and Polish sources allowed to identify key similarities and differences in the organisation of the territorial planning process, to distinguish basic legal acts regulating the planning process, their regulation areas, the hierarchy of the prepared plans, their legal effect, the obligation to prepare plans, public participation in the preparation of plans as well as possibilities and cases of changing those plans. The author identifies main legal issues that hinder the implementation of the sustainable development in Lithuania and due to which the plans may not ensure sustainable territorial development, economic growth or employment, attract investments or appropriate living conditions.

The concept of sustainability is commonly used as an urban and regional development strategy. Investigating the interaction between the elements of sustainable development, some scholars state that the public welfare is mainly dependent on the economy, and the economy cannot develop without the public. Using natural resources, the public forms the economic capital. Therefore, the social and the natural resources capital creates preconditions for the growth of the economic capital. In order to attain the sustainable development and economic growth, it is necessary to reform the current legal framework of territorial planning and to define the strategic objectives, i.e., to create a system of performance indices that would ensure a comprehensive and objective analysis of territorial development and changes, the collection, filing, storage and processing of current information as well as its timely use. During the territorial planning process it is possible to increase the available investment potential by making an efficient use of natural resources and to improve the investment climate by encouraging the investment activity and reducing the investment risk. It is also necessary to ensure an active participation of communities in the process. Analysing the risks related to the implementation of investment projects, scholars identified four risks that depend on the specific characteristics of the project, i.e., public support, project approval and authorization, deviations from the contract and the lack of experience, as well as those which were not attributed to any group of the risk distribution among the parties concerned. Those risks are inherent in the process of territorial planning in Lithuania.

Investments are necessary for the implementation of the solutions included in territorial planning documents. The construction sector makes a significant

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contribution to the country’s economic growth and the sustainable development. It is important that these investments are effective and targeted not only at needs of a separate group of people, but would also help to meet the public/social needs, to develop a public infrastructure and to contribute to the welfare of future generations. Therefore, the examination of the interaction of economic, social and environmental issues still remains a scientific novelty. The solution of those non-structured problems is attributed to the group of multicriteria tasks with qualitative and quantitative variables.

2. Determination of the Investment Strategy

The country's economic development is not possible without construction: people use construction products – buildings of various purposes – for living, working and other social needs. Correctly targeted construction investments contribute to country's economic growth and sustainable development. Scientific and economic studies have shown a number of indices for the evaluation of the sustainable development. While most scholars agree that the concept of sustainable development is quite controversial as different interpretations of the concept of sustainability elements exist, one should not doubt the fact that investment is necessary to ensure the sustainable development. However, the Lithuanian territorial planning is lacking the relationship of practical investment promotion and sustainable territorial development indices. Therefore, one of the goals of this study was the creation of the theoretical model of determination of the investment strategy in the context of sustainable development.

In order to attract investments and to use them purposefully, public authorities must have economic skills in state or district management. This may be achieved by relying on the experience of countries with strong economies and evaluating the future positive or negative effects of capital expansion directions, applying the latest concepts of sustainable development and multicriteria methods for the search and selection of alternative solutions. Therefore, to identify opportunities of increasing investment attractiveness and to purposefully direct investment flows to the problematic business branches and/or problematic areas, it is necessary to develop a purposeful investment absorption strategy and to minimise potential risk factors. For this purpose, it is necessary to perform an integrated analysis of the region, which consists of three major blocks of regional analyses: macro-economic analysis, investment climate analysis and investment strategy analysis.

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The region's macro environment analysis identifies the measures that would improve the investment environment in the region and help to create an effective direct domestic and foreign investment promotion system.

The investment climate analysis includes the examination of the potential of the region, business development opportunities and the preparation of territorial planning documents. In view of the solutions of the prepared documents, their goals and objectives, the development for economic-commercial activities of the territory, the contents and the deadline of documents to be prepared are established.

The investment strategy analysis includes the examination of potential strategic development directions and the region’s SWOT analysis, which reveals the region's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that may impact the region's business and investment environment, and possible strategic development directions are formed (K1, K2, K3, ..., Kn). Based on the findings of the integrated analysis, in the decision-making stage the investment direction is selected, the implementation of which will allow achieving the stated goal. The alternatives for the implementation of the investment direction are formed. Alternatives are described using the efficiency criteria and are assessed using MCDM1 multicriteria methods. The complex employs TOPS, SAW, COPRAS multicriteria quantitative assessment methods. The result determines an alternative for the development of the best strategic development direction which is, first of all, suggested for the implementation in order to promote investment in the region and ensure its sustainable development. The study includes an integrated regional analysis using Vilnius district as an example. After the analysis, three possible strategic development directions were identified for Vilnius district municipality to promote investment (logistics and production, one- or two-day tourist trips, and the development of new settlements). Selecting the strategic direction of the logistics and production promotion, the present state of the formed industrial-commercial areas in Vilnius district of has been investigated; their value and development prospects have been evaluated. Three alternatives for the development of industrial-commercial areas are considered:

A1 alternative – minimum investment option. In case of this alternative, the industrial-commercial area develops irregularly, parallel to the development of the whole district; all established areas are developed on the same level by providing proportioned investment.

A2 alternative – great investment option. In case of this alternative, the development of the industrial-commercial area is regarded one of the most important development priorities in Vilnius district and the priority industrial-

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commercial area, i.e., the public logistics centre, for the development in a relatively short period of time, the required maximum level of investment is provided.

A3 alternative – effective investment option. In case of this alternative, the implemented measures are aimed at the largest industrial-commercial area. In case of Vilnius district, those are two areas: Maišiagala-Avižieniai-Sudervė and Rudamina. The performance indices are formed with regard to the determined development alternatives. Following a survey of experts, the significance of indices is established, and the compatibility of expert opinions is verified. The significance of the formed performance indices has been ascertained using an expert pairwise comparison method.

The data are entered into the decision-making matrix by replacing qualitative assessments with quantitative ones, and evaluating them. The decision-making matrix for the selection of investment strategy is formed. Qualitative indicators are graded. Technical, economic, environmental and social indicators have been used for the evaluation.

Since the solution of real complex tasks requires more than one method, the methods have to be grouped, merged, and apply sequentially. The MCDM1 complex of multicriteria methods has been applied in the study. The calculation results are presented in the table 1.

Table 1. Calculation results

Method name and ratings

Alternatives (options)

TOPSIS

Ratin

gs

COPRAS

Ratin

gs

SAW

Ratin

gs

A1 0.0183 3 0.241 3 0.584 3 A2 0.9092 1 0.400 1 0.981 1 A3 0.6787 2 0.359 2 0.883 2

The solution of the task showed that the best alternative is A2 – great

investments. The great investments alternative defines the development of the priority industrial-commercial area as one of the most important development priorities in Vilnius district and in a relatively short period of time this area will receive the maximum investment required. The campaign for the promotion of Vilnius district as an attractive region for investment and industry is also carried out.

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3. Determination of the investment implementation risk Investment, territorial planning and construction are interconnected

processes that influence each other. Therefore, when evaluating the investment climate for the construction, it is necessary to assess the complexity and the preparation time of the territorial planning documents.

The dissertation presents the relation of the construction investment and planning processes under the current legislation. The analysis of the territorial planning procedures and their temporal presentation allowed to determine their average duration of 1.5 years. If an investment project, with the right information available, may be developed quite rapidly, upon the assessment of the number and the time frame of the detailed planning procedures, there is a risk that is difficult to measure or define. Since the current territorial planning procedures are complex, lengthy and risky, it follows that one of the major threats to the region’s investment projects is the preparation time of large-scale general plans and the detailed plan.

The author has carried out the analysis of the planning systems on the municipal level in Lithuania, Poland and Germany. It was found out that the task of comparing the territorial planning system models is attributed to the group of unstructured problems with qualitative variables. Since the main characteristics of such problems are qualitative, they can hardly be used in the analysis. On the other hand, quantitative models are not sufficiently reliable.

The evaluation aspects of the territorial planning system are characteristic of verbal decision-making methods. The task is solved using verbal analysis of the territorial planning systems. To determine the efficiency of the territorial planning system model, a decision-making matrix is formed, which allows to formulate the evaluation criteria and analysed options. The table data are used for this purpose, and the verbal decision-making system UniComBOS (Unit COMparison for the Best Object Selection) is applied. After the data entry, the survey involving the decision-maker begins and is conducted by asking certain questions. When analysing the answers to these questions, the pairwise comparison of the variants is carried out. The analysis has shown that the organisation of the territorial planning in Lithuania is more complicated compared to the German and Polish planning processes.

In order to reduce the preparation time for the territorial planning documentation by simplifying the procedures, it is necessary to evaluate the needs of the public, the investment environment/conditions, planned landscape features of the area and their potential, geographical location, geological conditions, urban, architectural, technical, environmental, heritage

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characteristics, etc., national security and defence needs in each city/district municipality. Each municipality is unique. Therefore, the aim of the Ministry of

Environment to introduce universal/centralised territorial planning standards is contrary to the principles of sustainable development. For these reasons, the author proposes to allow each municipality to develop and validate the planning standards (Fig.1), taking into account the peculiarities of each municipality and the development objectives, and the Ministry of Environment to take care of the methodology of drawing up the territorial planning standards.

Fig. 1. The structure of distribution of functions among authorities The organisation of plans at the municipal level is the exclusive right of

the director of the municipal administration. When establishing that the planned economic activity is possible in the area, the investor concludes the cooperation agreement on the organisation of drawing up a detailed planning of the

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territories and the transfer of the rights and responsibilities with regard to the implementation of the solutions of the approved plan. Thus, all liabilities for developing undeveloped/non-urban areas are assumed.

Moreover, when developing a conceptual model of the territorial planning (Fig. 2), it is proposed to refuse the issuance procedure for the planning conditions digest.

Fig. 2. Conceptual model for the TP process rearrangement It was determined that this procedure is redundant. Furthermore, when preparing detailed plans, it was offered to follow the requirements of the

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approved regulations for the territorial planning documentation, legal acts and planning standards, which have not been developed in Lithuania thus far. In view of the above, a new/modified Conceptual Model for the Territorial

Planning is proposed. The efficiency of the conceptual model developed by the authors is reassessed using the UniComBos system. The analysis has shown that with the introduction of this model the territorial planning in Lithuania would be organised more efficiently, compared to the German and Polish planning processes.

General conclusions 1. The study includes the analysis of investment opportunities, the analysis

of investment risk problems, and the analysis of organisation of the territorial planning process. The territorial planning problems were singled out during the analysis of scientific literature and legal documents. It was established that the plans do not ensure a sustainable territorial development, economic growth, employment or investment attraction. Hence, it is necessary to develop an integrated system of preparation of plans and implementation of their solutions.

2. The application of mathematical methods in solving the issues and opportunities of the efficiency of investment, investment risk mitigation and the assurance of effective organisation of the territorial planning process has been examined. It has also been established that the qualitative measurements allow to get the definitions of unstructured problems which are close to real ones. They can be applied by comparing the organisational models of the territorial planning processes and the investment project implementation strategy. The application of quantitative methods is suitable for the analysis of investment options.

3. A method to determine the investment strategies by conducting an integrated analysis of the region has been developed. Following the aforementioned analysis, three possible strategic development directions were identified for Vilnius district municipality to promote investment: logistics and production, one- or two-day tourist trips, and the development of new settlements. For the development of logistics and production, separate areas were singled out to promote business establishment and further development. Three alternatives for the development of industrial-commercial areas have been formed: A1 – minimum investment; A2 – great investment; and A3 – effective investment. Alternative evaluation indices, their types, aspects, directions and significance have been identified. The task of determining the best one from the formulated alternatives has been solved using three

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multicriteria quantitative decision-making methods – TOPSIS, SAW and COPRAS. It was determined that the development of the industrial-commercial area is regarded as one of the priorities of the Vilnius district municipality, and in a relatively short period of time this area will receive the maximum investment required.

4. Underlying investment risks have been identified using Vilnius district as an example. It was found out that investment, territorial planning and construction are interconnected processes that influence each other. Therefore, the assessment of the investment climate for the construction must necessarily incorporate the evaluation of the complexity and terms of the preparation of territorial planning documentation as well as the associated investment risk. The preparation period for territorial planning documents unacceptably increases the risk of investment. 5. The study includes a comparative verbal analysis of the preparation of general and detailed plans in the EU countries. It has shown that the organisation of territorial planning in Lithuania is more complex compared to the German and Polish planning processes. As a result, preparation time periods for territorial planning documents are increasing.

6. A conceptual model of the detailed territorial planning that includes the modernisation of the stages of the detailed planning process has been proposed in the study. This model allows to clearly define limits of responsibilities in the territorial planning, to reduce the amount of drafted territorial planning documentation, and to increase its comprehensiveness. Thus, the territorial planning documentation system becomes clear and does not leave any room for conflicts between individual territorial planning documents.

7. An evaluation of the effectiveness of the conceptual model has been carried out and changes in binding normative acts have been proposed. The analysis has shown that compliance with the principles of sustainable development and the application of the model developed would enable a more efficient organisation of the territorial planning in Lithuania.

List of published works on the topic of the dissertation in the reviewed scientific periodical publications Ustinovichius, L.; Barvidas, A.; Vishnevskaja (Komarovska), A.; Ashikhmin, I. 2011. Multicriteria verbal analysis of territory planning sistem’s models from legislative perspective, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 17(1): 16–26. ISSN 1392–3730. (Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science)); CSA; EBSCOhost; Elsevier).

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Ustinovichius, L.; Barvidas, A.; Vishnevskaja (Komarovska), A.; Ashikhmin, I. 2009. Multicriteria verbal analysis for the decision of construction problems, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 15(2): 326–340. ISSN 1392-8619. (Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science)). In the other editions Peckiene A.; Komarovska A.; Ustinovicius L. 2013. Overview of risk allocation between construction parties. 11th International Conference on Modern Building Materials, Structures and Techniques, MBMST 2013, Procedia Engineering 57, 889–894. Ustinovičius, L.; Barvidas, A.; Višnievskaja (Komarovska), A.; Ashikhmin, I. Multicriteria verbal analysis for construction contracts, in 20th International Euro mini Conference „Continuous optimization and knowledge-based technologies“ (EUROPT-2008), selected papers, ed. by L. Sakalauskas, E. K. Zavadskas. May 20–23, 2008, Neringa, Lithuania. Vilnius: Technika, 235–240. ISBN 9789955282839. (ISI Proceedings). Višnevskaja (Komarovska), A. 2009. Daugiatikslė verbalinė analizė sprendžiant teritorijų planavimo uždavinius, Mokslas – Lietuvos ateitis 1(5): 109–113. ISSN 2029-2341. (Index Copernicus). About the author Andželika Komarovska (Višnevskaja) was born on 25 May 1981 in Vilnius. In 2004 she obtained a bachelor's degree in civil engineering at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University and in 2006 a master’s degree in civil engineering. In 2008-2013 she was taking postgraduate (doctoral) studies at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. Since 2006 Komarovska (Višnevskaja) is employed as a Chief Specialist in Architecture and Territorial Planning Department in Vilnius district municipality, and since 2012 she is the Head of the Department. TERITORIJŲ PLANAVIMO PROCESO DAUGIATIKSLIS VERTINIMAS INVESTICINIU ASPEKTU

Darbo aktualumas Investicijų efektyvumą lemia šalies makroekonominė situacija, o

investicijų efektyvumas skatina šalies makroekonominę plėtrą. Ekonomikos ir statybos sektoriaus sąryšį nagrinėja viso pasaulio mokslininkai įvairiais aspektais. Statybos investicijos turi įtakos infrastruktūros plėtrai, o infrastruktūros plėtra lemia darnią plėtrą. Darnios plėtros ir darnios statybos

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sąvokos nėra aiškiai reglamentuojamos Lietuvos teisės aktuose, todėl ir darnos svarba neakcentuojama rengiamų teritorijų planavimo dokumentų sprendiniuose, ypač vystant naujas statybas. Norint priimti efektyvius pastatų ir žemės naudojimo ateities sprendimus, būtina įvertinti teritorijų planavimo ir statybos procesus reglamentuojančią teisinę bazę, išskiriant su tuo susijusią riziką, bei įvertinant inžinerines – technines, ekonomines, socialines, aplinkosaugines ir kitas sąlygas darnaus vystymo(-si) aspektu. Statybos verslas turi dalyvauti darnios infrastruktūros kūrime, bet nėra nei teisinės bazės, nei metodikos, reglamentuojančios kaip ir kiek privatus kapitalas turi investuoti į darnią plėtrą. Problema yra ta, kad investuotojai įdeda privatų kapitalą į viešos infrastruktūros kūrimą, t. y. į darnią plėtrą, o ilgai trunkančios procedūros didina jų įdėtų investicijų atsipirkimo laikotarpį, t. y. didina projekto įgyvendinimo riziką ir mažina pelną. Todėl būtina skatinti investuotojus finansuoti į darnią plėtrą, sukuriant aiškius reguliavimo mechanizmus, padedančius sumažinti riziką ir neapibrėžtumą.

Tyrimų objektas teritorijų planavimas kaip kompleksinis procesas, jį

reglamentuojančių teisės aktų ir investicinių procesų sąveika infrastruktūros plėtros požiūriu, nagrinėjant Vilniaus rajono pavyzdį.

Darbo tikslas yra atlikti teritorijų planavimo proceso daugiatikslį vertinimą. Sukurti teritorijų planavimo koncepcinį modelį, siekiant pritraukti investicijas, sutrumpinti teritorijų planavimo proceso trukmę, sumažinti riziką, išlaikyti aukštą teritorijų planavimo dokumentų kokybę.

Darbo uždaviniai 1. Atlikti investavimo galimybių analizę, investicinės rizikos

paskirstymo tarp proceso dalyvių analizę bei teritorijų planavimo proceso organizavimo analizę Lietuvoje ir pasirinktose ES šalyse.

2. Išnagrinėti matematinių metodų taikymo, sprendžiant investicijų efektyvumo, investicinės rizikos mažinimo bei teritorijų planavimo proceso efektyvaus organizavimo užtikrinimo klausimus, galimybes.

3. Sukurti metodiką investicinei strategijai nustatyti, atliekant kompleksinę regiono analizę.

4. Atlikti lyginamąją verbalinę analizę, vertinant bendrųjų ir detaliųjų planų rengimą ES šalyse. 5. Atlikti pagrindinių investicinių grėsmių, rengiant teritorijų planavimo dokumentus, indentifikavimą nagrinėjant Vilniaus rajono pavyzdį.

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6. Pasiūlyti detaliojo teritorijų planavimo konceptinį modelį, modernizuojant detaliojo planavimo proceso etapus. 7. Atlikti koncepcinio modelio efektyvumo vertinimą ir pasiūlyti

normatyvinių teisės aktų keitimą. Tyrimų metodika Pagrindinė idėja, kuria remiantis buvo sumanytas tyrimas, įvertinti teritorijų planavimo procesą investiciniu aspektu. Tyrimai atliekami taikant sisteminio požiūrio ir sisteminės analizės

metodologinius principus, verbalinių metodų teoriją bei MCDM1 daugiatikslių metodų (SAW, TOPSIS, COPRAS) kompleksą. Teorinės analizės metu atlikta šiuolaikinės mokslinės literatūros ir teisinių šaltinių apžvalga, apibendrinimo metu – minėtos informacijos kritinis vertinimas, siekiant nustatyti informacijos validumą, t. y. patikimumą ir tinkamumą praktinėje veikloje. Darbo pabaigoje pateikti pasiūlytų sprendimų testavimo pavyzdžiai.

Rengiant darbą atlikta mokslinės literatūros apžvalga, teisinių dokumentų ir statistinių duomenų analizė. Pagrindinis visų duomenų šaltinis – elektroninės (interaktyvios) duomenų bazės. Teisiniai dokumentai skaityti oficialiose Europos Sąjungos, Lietuvos Respublikos Litlex tinklalapiuose. Statistiniai duomenys paimti iš LR Statistikos departamento arba Eurostat internetinių tinklalapių, taip pat panaudota Vilniaus rajono savivaldybėje kaupiama informacija.

Darbo mokslinis naujumas Rengiant disertaciją buvo gauti šie statybos inžinerijos mokslui nauji

rezultatai: 1. Atlikus išsamią teritorijų planavimo proceso, pagal jį

reglamentuojančių teisės aktų nuostatas, organizavimo analizę ir sudarius proceso kalendorinį grafiką, nustatyta, kad detaliojo plano rengimo trukmė turi didelę neigiamą poveikį investicijoms, kaip jų pritraukimui, taip ir įsisavinimui.

2. Atlikus teritorijų planavimo procesų organizavimo bei rengiamų planų sudėties Vokietijoje ir Lenkijoje analizę, nustatyti esminiai skirtumai tarp Lietuvoje ir minėtose užsienio šalyse vykstančių procesų.

3. Išskirtos investicinės rizikos, būdingos tik teritorijų planavimo procesui, ir nustatyta jų įtaka galutiniam investicinio projekto rezultatui.

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4. Atlikus Vilniaus rajono savivaldybės kompleksinę investicinės aplinkos analizę, suformuoti galimi investiciniai variantai Vilniaus rajone.

5. Atlikus teritorijų planavimo procesų Lietuvoje, Lenkijoje ir Vokietijoje lyginamąją verbalinę analizę, nustatyta, kad šiuo metu teritorijų planavimo procesas Lietuvoje nėra palankus investicijoms ir verslo plėtojimui. 6. Pasiūlytas teritorijų planavimo koncepcinis modelis, modernizuojantis planavimo proceso etapus, nepabloginantis rengiamų teritorijų planavimo dokumentų kokybės.

7. Atlikus pasiūlyto teritorijų planavimo koncepcinio modelio efektyvumo vertinimą, nustatyta, kad supaprastinus planavimo procedūras galima pasiekti darnią teritorijų plėtrą, užtikrinant rengiamų dokumentų kokybę bei minimizuojant su jų parengimų susijusią riziką.

Darbo rezultatų praktinė reikšmė Darbo rezultatai gali būti taikomi naujai teritorijų planavimo koncepcijai

įteisinti, pasiūlytas teisės aktų, reglamentuojančių teritorijų planavimą, nuostatų keitimas, kuris galėtų sukurti patrauklią Lietuvos investicinę aplinką ir užtikrintų darnią plėtrą, kuriai įgyvendinti yra būtinos didelės investicijos. O tai yra naudinga visoms investiciniame procese dalyvaujančioms suinteresuotoms grupėms, eliminuojant iš šio proceso savanaudiškų tikslų siekiančius dalyvius.

Ginamieji teiginiai 1. Investicinių projektų įgyvendinimui tiesioginę įtaką turi sudėtingos

teritorijų planavimo proceso procedūros, dėl to padidėja proceso trukmė, jo neapibrėžtumas ir rizika.

2. Galiojantis teisinis reglamentavimas neužtikrina nuoseklaus ir darnaus teritorijų vystymo mechanizmo, todėl siūlomas naujas teritorijų planavimo modelis, skatinantis teritorijų darnią plėtrą bei sukuriantis palankią investicinę aplinką, investicijoms, kurios turėtų būti nukreiptos ir į viešosios infrastruktūros kūrimą, pritraukti. Viešo intereso viršenybė virš privataus turi būti juridiškai įteisinta.

3. Tinkamai parinkus (šalies, ar tam tikros atskiros teritorijos) vystymosi strategiją ir koncentruojant investicijas pasirinktose prioritetinėse zonose, galima užtikrinti efektyvų ir kompleksinį teritorijų planavimą kaip darnaus vystymosi, taip ir investiciniu aspektais.

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Disertacijos struktūra Disertaciją sudaro įvadas, trys skyriai bei išvados. Darbo apimtis – 151 puslapis, tekste yra 9 numeruotos formulės, 26 paveikslai ir 28 lentelės. Rašant disertaciją buvo panaudoti 183 literatūros šaltiniai. Disertacijos pirmame skyriuje atlikta mokslinės ir teisinės literatūros apžvalga. Antrame skyriuje sukurtas teorinis investicinis strategijos parinkimo modelis, pasiūlyti rodikliai apibūdinantys investicinius variantus vertinimui panaudojant techninių, ekonominių, aplinkos ir socialinių rodiklių grupes. Trečiame skyriuje pasiūlytas modifikuotas teritorijų planavimo koncepcinis modelis.

Bendrosios išvados 1. Darbe atlikta investavimo galimybių analizė, investicijų rizikos

problemų analizė bei teritorijų planavimo proceso organizavimo analizė. Mokslinės literatūros ir teisinių dokumentų analizės metu išskirtos teritorijų planavimo problemos. Nustatyta, kad planai neužtikrina darnaus teritorijų vystymo, ekonominio augimo, darbo vietų užtikrinimo, investicijų pritraukimo, todėl būtina kurti kompleksinę planų rengimo ir jų sprendinių įgyvendinimo sistemą.

2. Išnagrinėtos matematinių metodų taikymo, sprendžiant investicijų efektyvumo, investicijų rizikos sumažinimo bei teritorijų planavimo proceso efektyvaus organizavimo užtikrinimo klausimus, galimybės. Nustatyta, kad kokybiniai matavimai leidžia gauti nestruktūrizuotų problemų apibūdinimus, artimus realiems. Jie gali būti taikomi palyginant teritorijų planavimo procesų organizavimo modelius, investicinio projekto įgyvendinimo strategiją. Kiekybinių metodų taikymas galimas analizuojant investicinius variantus.

3. Sukurta metodika investicinei strategijai nustatyti, atliekant kompleksinę regiono analizę. Atlikus Vilniaus rajono verslo aplinkos analizę, išanalizavus rengiamus ir pradėtus rengti detaliuosius planus, išskirtos zonos, kuriose siūloma skatinti įmonių kūrimąsi ir plėtrą. Suformuotos trys pramoninių-komercinių zonų vystymo alternatyvos: A1 – „minimalių investicijų“, A2 – „didžiųjų investicijų“ ir A3 – „efektyvių investicijų“. Nustatyti alternatyvų vertinimo rodikliai, jų tipai, aspektai, kryptys bei reikšmingumai. Siekiant nustatyti geriausią iš suformuotų alternatyvų, uždavinys buvo išspręstas trimis daugiatiksliais kiekybiniais sprendimo priėmimo metodais – TOPSIS, SAW ir COPRAS. Nustatyta, kad prioritetinės pramoninės-komercinės zonos vystymas priskiriamas prie svarbiausių Vilniaus rajono savivaldybės plėtros prioritetų ir per palyginti trumpą laiką šiai zonai bus skiriamos reikalingos investicijos.

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4. Atliktas pagrindinių investicinių grėsmių nustatymas, nagrinėjant Vilniaus rajono pavyzdį. Nustatyta, kad investicijos, teritorijų planavimas ir statyba – tarpusavyje susieti ir įtakojantys vienas kitą procesai. Todėl vertinant investicinę aplinką statyboms, būtina vertinti teritorijų planavimo dokumentų parengimo sudėtingumą ir terminą, bei su tuo susijusią investicinę riziką. Nustatyta, kad teritorijų planavimo dokumentų parengimo trukmė ilgina investicinio projekto įgyvendinimą apytiksliai vieneriems metams ir taip didina investicinę riziką.

5. Darbe atlikta lyginamoji verbalinė analizė, vertinant bendrųjų ir detaliųjų planų rengimą ES šalyse, kuri parodė, kad teritorijų planavimas Lietuvoje organizuotas sudėtingiau, palyginti su Vokietijos bei Lenkijos planavimo procesais, dėl to teritorijų planavimo dokumentų parengimo trukmė labai ilgėja.

6. Darbe pasiūlytas detaliojo teritorijų planavimo koncepcinis modelis, modernizuojantis detaliojo planavimo proceso etapus. Šis modelis leidžia aiškiai apibrėžti atsakomybės teritorijų planavime ribas, sumažina rengiamų teritorijų planavimo dokumentų skaičių, didina jų išsamumą. Teritorijų planavimo dokumentų sistema pasidaro aiški ir nesudaro galimybių prieštaravimams tarp atskirų teritorijų planavimo dokumentų atsirasti.

7. Atliktas koncepcinio modelio efektyvumo vertinimas ir pasiūlytas normatyvinių teisės aktų keitimas. `

Trumpos žinios apie autorių Andželika Komarovska (Višnevskaja) gimė 1981 m. gegužės 25 d.

Vilniuje. 2004 m. Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universitete įgijo statybos inžinerijos bakalauro laipsnį, 2006 m. – statybos inžinerijos magistro laipsnį. 2008–2013 m. – Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universiteto doktorantė. Nuo 2006 m. dirba Vilniaus rajono savivaldybės administracijos Architektūros ir teritorijų planavimo skyriaus vyr. specialiste, nuo 2012 m. – Architektūros ir teritorijos planavimo skyriaus vedėja.

Andželika KOMAROVSKA THE MULTICRITERIA ASSESSMENT OF THE TERRITORY PLANNING PROCESS: THE INVESTMENT ASPECT Summary of Doctoral Dissertation Technological Sciences, Civil Engineering (02T) Andželika KOMAROVSKA TERITORIJŲ PLANAVIMO PROCESO DAUGIATIKSLIS VERTINIMAS INVESTICINIU ASPEKTU Daktaro disertacijos santrauka Technologijos mokslai, statybos inžinerija (02T) 2013 12 27. 1,5 sp. l. Tiražas 70 egz. Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universiteto leidykla „Technika“, Saulėtekio al. 11, 10223 Vilnius, http://leidykla.vgtu.lt Spausdino UAB „Ciklonas“ J. Jasinskio g. 15, 01111 Vilnius