The NASA VisionTo improve life here,

To extend life to there,

To find life beyond.

The NASA MissionTo understand and protect our home planet

To explore the universe and search for life

To inspire the next generation of explorers

…as only NASA can.

Science: How is the Earth Changing and What

Are the Consequences for Life on Earth?

• How is the global Earth system changing?

• What are the primary causes of change inthe Earth system?

• How does the Earth system respond tonatural and human-induced changes?

• What are the consequences of changes inthe Earth system for human civilization?

• How well can we predict future changes tothe Earth system?

Establishing Priorities

Implementation Priority Criteria

Science Return

Benefit to Society

Mandated Program

Appropriate for NASA

Partnership Opportunity*

Technology Readiness

Program Balance

Cost / Budget Context

* Includes potential for handoffto operational systems

Science Priority Criteria

Deriving Measurement Requirementsfrom the Research Strategy

Variability Forcing Response Consequence Prediction

12/20/00

Precipitation,evaporation &

cycling of waterchanging?

Precipitation,evaporation &

cycling of waterchanging?

Global oceancirculationvarying?

Global oceancirculationvarying?

Globalecosystemschanging?

Globalecosystemschanging?

Stratosphericozone changing?

Stratosphericozone changing?

Ice cover masschanging?

Ice cover masschanging?

Motions of Earth& interior

processes?

Motions of Earth& interior

processes?

Atmosphericconstituents & solar

radiation onclimate?

Atmosphericconstituents & solar

radiation onclimate?

Changes inland cover

& land use?

Changes inland cover

& land use?

Surfacetransformation?

Surfacetransformation?

Clouds & surfacehydrological

processes onclimate?

Clouds & surfacehydrological

processes onclimate?

Ecosystemresponses & affects

on global carboncycle?

Ecosystemresponses & affects

on global carboncycle?

Changes inglobal oceancirculation?

Changes inglobal oceancirculation?

Stratospheric traceconstituentresponses?

Stratospheric traceconstituentresponses?

Sea levelaffected by climate

change?

Sea levelaffected by climate

change?

Pollution effects?Pollution effects?

Weathervariation related toclimate variation?

Weathervariation related toclimate variation?

Consequencesin land cover& land use?

Consequencesin land cover& land use?

Coastal regionchange?

Coastal regionchange?

Weatherforecasting

improvement?

Weatherforecasting

improvement?

Transientclimate variations?

Transientclimate variations?

Trends inlong-term climate?

Trends inlong-term climate?

Future atmosphericchemical impacts?

Future atmosphericchemical impacts?

Futureconcentrations of

carbon dioxide andmethane?

Futureconcentrations of

carbon dioxide andmethane?

Weather

TODAY Goals for 2010

3-Day forecast at 93%*

7 Day forecast at 62%*

3 day rainfall forecast not achievable

Hurricane landfall +/-400Km at 2-3 days

Air quality day by day

6-12 month seasonal prediction experimental;achieved an understanding of El Nino mechanics

Decadal climate prediction with coarse modelsand significant uncertainties in forcing andresponse factors

Demonstrate centimeter-level measurement ofland deformation

Accurate characterization of long-term tectonicmotions, but no short-term earthquake forecastcapability

Accurate characterization of volcanic activity, butno long-term prediction accuracy

5-Day forecast at >90%*

7-10 Day forecast at 75%*

3 day rainfall forecast routine

Hurricane landfall +/-100Km at 2-3 days

Air quality forecast at 2 days

6-12 month seasonal prediction routine;12-24 months experimental

10 year climate forecasts experimental;moderate to high confidence in forcing &response factors

Continuous monitoring of surface deformationin vulnerable regions with millimeter accuracy

Improved temporal dimension of earthquake &volcanic eruption forecasts

Improve post-eruption hazard assessment

Climate

NaturalHazards

* Accuracy refers to sea level pressure forecasts over Northern Hemisphere during winter.

Enabling Earth System Prediction

Evolving Observing Technologies

• Formation flying to intelligent constellations

• Combining data from multiple sources (space,suborbital and ground-based sensors)

• In-space data/information processing and featureextraction

• Space-to-space and space to ground directinformation transfer

• Direct delivery of information onto decision-makers’ desk-top computers in a timely,affordable fashion

• Increased use of new vantage points (L1, L2,other orbits)

Managing theEnd-to-End Information Flow

DRY

DRY

DRY

WARM

VERY WET

WET

WET

WET

VERYDRY

COLD

COLD

Predictions

Petabytes

Terabytes

Gigabytes Megabytes

Autonomous, In-spaceCalibration and Data

Reduction

Interaction BetweenModeling/Forecasting

and ObservationSystems

InteractiveDissemination

Multi-platform, multi-parameter, high spatial

and temporal resolution,remote & in-situ sensing

Advanced Sensors Sensor Webs InformationSynthesis Access to Knowledge

Key Factors Shaping a New EnterpriseStrategy: External

• President’s ClimateChange ResearchInitiative

– Emphasis onproducts for decisionsupport

– CCSPO developing along-term strategy forUSGCRP/CCRI thisFall

• President’sManagement Agenda

Business Mgmt Offices

Chief Counsel

Chief FinancialOfficer

Education

Equal Opport.

External Affairs

Procurement

Human Resources

Logistics Mgt.

Mgt. Info. Sys.

Security & Environ.

Aerospace Systems Concepts & AnalysisLee, acting

R&T Competencies

Systems EngineeringJurczyk

Airborne SystemsArbuckle

AtmosphericSciences

McMaster

Aerodynamics,Aerothermodynamics,

and AcousticsKumar

Structures andMaterials

Shuart

Headquarters Functions

Wind Tunnel Facility

Safety &Mission Assur.

Revised 6/4/02

Office of DirectorDirector

Deputy DirectorAssoc. Dir. for Program IntegrationAssoc. Dir. for R&T Competencies

Assoc. Dir. for Business ManagementAsst. Dir. for Planning

Systems Mgt. Office

Chief InformationD

LMS Project

Program Offices

Space Access & Exploration

AerospaceVehicle Sys.

AirspaceSystems Program

AviationSafety

Earth & SpaceScience

Sandford

ProjectImplementationHolloway, acting

TechnologyCommercialization

MgmtSupp. Off.

AgencyFunctions

Independent ProgramAssessment

1-31-03

Radiation & Aerosols (REB)

Head: Gary Gibson Asst. Heads: Dave Young, Lamont Poole Secretaries: Pam Link AA: Shannon Lynch

Programs:CERESCALIPSOESSP-3SRBSAGEERBESABERGAMS

Chemistry & Dynamics (REC)

Head: Malcolm Ko Asst. Heads: John Wells, Richard Eckman Secretaries: Tracy Hunter AA: Jeanette Reavis

Programs:SpectroscopyChemical transport modelingDIAL LidarGTEFTS, NASTFIREHALOEGIFTS

Director’s Office (RE)

Director: Len McMaster

Deputy Director: Lelia Vann

Deputy Director: Bill Grose (NIA)

Dave Young, acting

Admin Officer: Anne Overbay

Technical Asst.: John Greco

Outreach Mgr.: Lin Chambers

Secretary: Joella Hanlon

OrganizationChart

Atmospheric Sciences Data Center

Program Manager: Bruce BarkstromOperations Mgr: Michelle FerrebeeIT/Business Mgr: Paula SidellSystems Engineer: David Cordner

AtSC Areas of Expertise, AoE

• Radiation and Climate : Investigation of the Earth's energy balance(solar radiation) to improve understanding and enable prediction ofglobal climate change

• Tropospheric Chemistry : Investigation of tropospheric chemistry toimprove understanding and enable prediction of global climate changeand environmental quality

• Stratospheric Chemistry : Investigation of middle atmospheric(stratospheric) chemistry to improve understanding and enableprediction of global climate change.

• ASDC/DAAC : Development and operation of data systems and servicesfor processing, archival, dissemination and application of atmosphericscience data products

Enabling Lidar Atmospheric Measurements from Space

Laser Transmitters(UV-IR)

Lab Demonstrations

PrecisionLatch & Hinge

DeploymentMechanisms

Composite MirrorPanels

Lidar Measurements ofCloud & Aerosols, H 2O,O3, CO2, and Winds

Laser MaterialsModeling

High ThermalConductivityC-C CompositeDissipaters

Technology

Gas & Aerosol Monitoring Sensorcraft - GAMS Instrument Incubator Program (IIP)

Objective• To develop small, light weight, low power occultation sensor

Status• Key technologies demonstrated• Spectra show unexpected O4

absorption• Direct and immediate impact on SAGE II & SAGE III O3 retrievals

Technology

Observations

History of Radiation Budget Measurements

Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System - CERESProviding Vital Radiation Data Record for Climate Research

• First Global Estimates of Surface andAtmospheric Radiation

• Greater Accuracy for Climate Studies• Determine Radiative Effects of Clouds

CERES on EOS Terraand Aqua Satellites

Observations

Sounding of the Atmosphere usingBroadband Emission Radiometry - SABER

SABER Launched Dec. 7 2001

625 km circular orbit; 74.4 deg inclination

SABER measures T, O3, H2O, CO2 and ratesof heating and cooling in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere

Global coverage obtained by measuring infraredEarth limb emission in 10 spectral channels

Figures at right show response of thermosphericcooling by NO at 5.3 µµµµm to a solar storm in April of 2002.

Thermospheric emission and cooling increaseby an order of magnitude in response to the solarparticle input in the polar regions

Before solar storm

After solar storm

Cloud Aerosol Lidar P Satellite Observations - CALIPSO

Complementary Instruments

• CloudSat radar (cloud profiles)• Aqua CERES (top-of-the-atmosphere radiation)• Aqua AIRS / AMSU-A / HSB (atmospheric state)• Aqua MODIS (aerosol / cloud properties)• PARASOL (aerosol / cloud properties)• Aura OMI (aerosol absorption)

CloudSat

PARASOL

Aura

• Orbit: 705 km, 98° inclination,in formation with Aqua andCloudSat

• Launch in April 2004

• Mission duration: 3 years

• Three co-alignedinstruments:

• 3-channel lidar– 532 nm ||– 532 nm ^– 1064 nm

• Imaging IR radiometer• Wide-field camera

Vertical distribution ofaerosols and clouds

Aerosol / cloud properties

Aqua

CALIPSO

Observations

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer – GIFTS

New Technology toMeasure Water Vapor Flux

4-D Observations4-D Observations• Horizontal: Large area formatfocal plane detector arraysprovide near instantaneouswide 2-d geographical coverage

• Vertical: Michelsoninterferometer enables highspectral resolution

• Temporal: Geosynchronousorbit allows time resolution, i.e.,motion observations

GIFTS

Observations

NASA ESE Funded DAACs

SEDACHuman Interactions in

Global Change

GSFCUpper Atmosphere

Atmospheric DynamicsGlobal Biosphere

LaRCRadiation Budget,Clouds,Aerosols, Tropospheric

Chemistry

ORNLBiogeochemical

DynamicsEOS Land Validation

ASFSAR Products

Sea IcePolar Processes

NSIDCCryosphere

Polar Processes

EDCLand Processes

& Features

JPLOcean Circulation

Air-Sea Interactions

Data Archival

SAGE I & II data used to establish ozone trend for WMO internationalassessment … the prime international resource for monitoringthe changes in ozone and aerosols in the global stratosphere.

Data Analysis

High precision data set of Ozone, HF,HCl, CH4, NO, NO2, H2O, temperatureand aerosols for chemistry studies

and trend analysis

Surface Measurements

(Total Chlorine MixingRatio)

HALOE @ 55 km

(HCL Mixing Ratio)

HALOE total chlorinedata compared withground measurementsshow 5.3 year lag fortransport to the upperstratosphere and thatstratospheric chlorineis now decreasing

Montreal Protocol Effectiveness Validated by HALOE Data

Data Analysis

Atmospheric Chemistry Models

Assessment Modeling

Lagrangian

Air Quality Prediction

LaRC LagrangianCTM

In-situModeling

LaRC Regional Air Quality ModelingSystem

NO2NOO3, HO2, RO2

h<

RO2

NO3 N2O5NO2

RO2

OH

M,h<

h<

hetero, H2O

hetero, DMS,NMHC

O3

Rainout/ Washout

HONO

HNO3HO2NO2

Rainout/ Washout

h<

M,h<,OHHO2 h<,OH

OH, hetero

PAN RO2NO2

CH3CO3

M,h<

NO2NOO3, HO2, RO2

h<NO2NO

O3, HO2, RO2

h<NO2NO

O3, HO2, RO2

h<NO2NO

O3, HO2, RO2

h<

RO2

NO3 N2O5NO2

RO2

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M,h<

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hetero, DMS,NMHC

O3

RO2

NO3 N2O5NO2

RO2

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M,h<

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hetero, DMS,NMHC

RO2

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RO2

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HONO

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Rainout/ Washout

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HONO

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LaRC GTE Boxmodel

Earth Science in the Nation’s Service

Extend the use of Earth science knowledge, data, and technology tosupport our partners’ decision support tools and mgmt responsibilities

Universities

Federal Agencies

StateGovernmentsScientists

NASACenters

LocalGovernments

InternationalPartners

National Applications

AgriculturalCompetitiveness

Air QualityCommunity GrowthInvasive Species

WaterManagement

DisasterPreparedness

CoastalManagement

HomelandSecurity

CarbonManagement

Aviation SafetyEnergy ForecastingPublic Health

Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource

ObjectiveTo synthesize and convert scientific datato renewable energy industry standards

History• NASA Surface Radiation Budget Project

develops surface solar insolation data set forsolar cooking w/ DOE/NREL

• February 1998, “Development of SurfaceSolar Energy Data Sets for CommercialApplications for Placement of Solar PowerFacilities” proposal funded by NASA

• Meteorological data added (surfacetemperature, moisture and winds)

Surface Solar Energy Project

Informing Aviation

• Digital Atmospheric Data

• Digital Terrain Data

RAQMS Carbon MonoxidePrediction March 11, 2001

NASA SatelliteProducts

Global Assimilation

RegionalPrediction

PublicImpact

RAQMS is a multi-scalemodeling and dataassimilation system forpredicting atmospheric airquality.

*RAQMS is joint effort between LaRC and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW)Regional Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS*)

Air Quality Management

Key Elements of General StrategyAreas of increased emphasis

• Cloud and aerosol physics

• Tropospheric chemistry

• 3-D coupled climate chemistry modeling

• Science applications (e.g. solar energy, weather and air quality)

• Technologies for active/passive interdisciplinary instrument suites

• Technologies to exploit GEO, L1 & L2

• Strengthen collaboration with universities, industry & othergovernment labs

• Create flight opportunities through international collaboration

Future Emphasis

GLOBAL MEASUREMENT

TemporalResolution

HorizontalResolution

VerticalResolution

3-D Atmospheric Wind Sp eed & Di rection 3 hours 25 km 250 m

3-D Atmospheric Temperature (T) 3 hours 25 km 250 m

3-D Atmospheric Humidity (Td, RH) 3 hours 25 km 250 m

Barometric Pressure (Psfc) 3 hours 25 km NA

3-D Precipitation ( accumulation, rate, phase) 1 hour 1 km 250 m

3-D Cloud (water content, phase & other pro perties) 1 hour 1 km 250 m

Land-surface / Soil Moisture (LSM) 3 hours 25 km NA

Land-surface / Soil Temperature (LST skin) 3 hours 25 km NA

Land-Sea Snow-Ice (extent, depth & properties) 3 hours 25 km NA

Sea Surface Skin Temperature (SST skin) 3 hours 25 km NA

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Height 1 hour 25 km 25 m

Aerosols (size dist., conc., & other properties) 6 hours 25 km NA

Albedo (%) 3 hours 25 km NA

Vegetation (e.g. NDVI) 1 week 1 km NA

Surface Roughness (R 0) 2 weeks 1 km NA

From Future Architectures for Operational Forecasting: Two-Way Interacting Sensorweb and Model / AssimilationSystem by Mark Steiner, et.al., Third AMS Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to the EnvironmentalSciences, 9-13 February 2003, Long Beach, CA

Observational needs relative to the 14-day weather forecasting problem ranked byrelative importance. Variables shown in red are the observations that will likely

involve active remote sensors using space-deployed Lasers (Lidar) and Radars …

Ozone Research with Advanced Cooperative Lidar Experiments - - ORACLE

A mission for real time, global remote sensingof tropospheric and stratospheric ozone,aerosols, and cloud profiles as part of EX-1.

Timeline for Development : Ongoing

Demonstration complete: 2000-2001NMP Flight demo: 2003-2004EX-1Mission: 2006-2007

Autonomous compact DIAL systemwith advance “state-of-the-art” solidstate laser technology.

A Potential Joint Mission with Canadian Space Agency

ORACLE

Combined Active and Passive Environmental Sounder - CAPES

• Combines high vertical resolution lidar (DIAL)measurements of H2O, aerosols, and clouds withhigh spatial resolution passive (FTS)measurements of H2O and T

• Synergistic data processing provides higherresolution and more accurate H2O, T , and RHdistributions and better understanding of aerosoland cloud properties/processes and climatechange variables

(High Vertical Resolution H2O, Temperature, Aerosols, & Clouds for Radiation and Climate Change Studies)

Lidar H2O, Aerosols, and Clouds(LASE ER-2 Data)

360.0

360.5

361.0

361.5

362.0

359.0

359.5

CO2 (ppmv)

362.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

Pre

ssure

Altitude (

km

)

Latitude

ure

Alt

itu

de (

km

)

20N 10N 0 10S 20S 30S 40S 50S

Research on Atmospheric Carbon DioxideResearch on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

• Space-based lidar system:- CO2 global coverage- Altitude profiles of CO 2

• CO2 Lidar approach:- 2 micron SPARCLE technology- LASE DIAL techniques- Advanced IR detectors- 3-m deployable telescope

Mean Concentration of CO 2 from in-situmeasurements over south Pacific Basin as afunction of latitude and altitude, GTE-PEMTropics-A

• Important component of Carbon Cycle

• Major cause of climate change

• Global distribution of sources/sinks isuncertain

For more information:

http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/

Back-Up

• Atmospheric Composition

• Atmospheric Dynamics and Weather

• Global Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems

• Global Water and Energy Cycle

• Oceans, Ice and Climate

• Solid Earth Science

New ECE (Code Y) Science Focus Areas

“Improving our focus on science and applications products/resultsby shifting our focus from missions and data to answering key

scientific questions … within six science focus areas …”

Synergy Between the Atmospheric Scienceand Aeronautics Research at LaRCHistory

• In the 1960’s Atmospheric Science Research began at LaRC with the study ofatmospheric dynamics, and density and temperature variations with altitude tounderstand their effect on aircraft performance … later extended to the study ofupper altitude variations for Shuttle re-entry

• In the 1970’s LaRC expanded this effort to include atmospheric chemistry as wellas dynamics for the study of the impact of SST’s on the environment, whichevolved into today’s atmospheric chemistry and radiative transfer expertise andlead role for Code Y

• The Center’s engineering expertise in technology development for Aeronauticssubsequently led directly to numerous successes and significant contributions toEarth remote sensing

• Key atmospheric science research and technology development at LaRC havebenefited by joint funding from Earth Science and Aerospace Technology programssuch as HSR, Aviation Safety, and the base program

• The key to the success of this work has been that the technologists andengineers are able to work on a day-to-day basis with atmospheric scientiststo innovate the next generation of remote sensing tools for both aeronauticaland Earth science applications