the natural mathematics arising in information theory and ...player 1: portfolio b1. wealth s1 =...
TRANSCRIPT
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The natural mathematics arising in information theory andinvestment
Thomas Cover
Stanford University
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Felicity of mathematics
We wish to maximize the growth rate of wealth.
There is a satisfactory theory. The strategy achieving this goal is controversial.(Probably because the strategy involves maximizing the expected logarithm.)
Why is π fundamental? π = C/D,∑
n1
n2 = π2
6, φ(x) = 1√
2πe−
x2
2 .
Recall from physics the statement that the laws of physics have a strangely felicitousrelation with mathematics. We shall try to establish the reasonableness of the theory ofgrowth optimality by presenting the richness of the mathematics that describes it andby giving a number of problems having growth optimality as the answer.
A theory is natural if it fits and has few “moving parts”. Ideally, it should “predict” otherproperties.
The new or unpublished statements will be identified.
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Outline
Setup
Mean variance theory
Growth optimal portfolios for stochastic markets
Properties:
Stability of optimal portfolioExpected Ratio OptimalityCompetitive optimalitySn/S∗
n Martingale
S∗n
.= enW∗
(AEP)
Growth optimal portolios for arbitrary markets
Universal portfolios
Sn/S∗n ≥ 1
2√
n+1for all xn
Amplification
Relationship of growth optimality to information theory
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Portfolio Selection
Stock X:X = (X1, X2, . . . , Xm) ∼ F (x)
X ≥ 0
Xi = price-relative of stock i
Portfolio b:b = (b1, b2, . . . , bm), bi ≥ 0,
∑bi = 1
proportion invested
Wealth Relative S: Factor by which wealth increases
S =m∑
i=1
biXi = btX
Find the “largest” S.
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Mean-Variance Theory.Markowitz, Tobin, Sharpe, . . .
Choose b so that (Var S, ES) is undominated. S = btX.
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Conflict of mean-variance theory and growth rate.
Portfolio selection:
Maximize growth rate of wealth.
Sn(X1, X2, . . . , Xn)·= 2nW
Efficient portfolio is not necessarily growth optimal (E.Thorp)
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Consider the stock market process Xi:
Xi ∈ Rm,
Portfolios bi(·):m∑
j=1
bij(xi−1) = 1
for each time i = 1, 2, ... and for every past xi−1 = (x1, x2, ...,xi−1).
Note: bij < 0 corresponds to shorting stock j on day i. Shorting cash is calledbuying on margin.
Goal: Given a stochastic process Xi with known distribution, find portfoliosequence bi(·) that “maximizes”
Sn =n∏
i=1
bti(X
i−1)Xi
.
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1. Asymptotic Growth Rate of Wealth
X1,X2, . . . i.i.d. ∼ F (x)
Wealth at time n:
Sn =n∏
i=1
btXi
= 2(n 1n
∑log b
tXi)
= 2n(E log btX+o(1)), a.e.
Definition: Growth rate
W (b, F ) =
∫log btx dF (x)
W ∗ = maxb
W (b, F )
Sn.= 2nW∗
.
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Example
Cash vs. Hot Stock
X =
(1, 2), prob 12
(1, 1
2
), prob 1
2
b = (b1, b2)
E log S =1
2log(b1 + 2b2) +
1
2log(b1 +
1
2b2)
b∗ = (1
2,1
2)
W ∗ =1
2log
9
8
S∗n
.=
(9
8
)n/2.= (1.06)n
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Live off fluctuations
n
s
Cash
Hot stock
S∗n
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Calculation of optimal portfolio
X ∼ F (x)
Log Optimal Portfolio b∗:maxb
E log btX = W ∗
Log Optimal Wealth:S∗ = b∗tX
∂
∂biE lnbtX = E
Xi
btX
Kuhn-Tucker conditions:
b∗ : E Xi
b∗tX= 1, b∗i > 0≤ 1, b∗i = 0
Consequence: ES/S∗ ≤ 1, for all S.
Theorem E ln SS∗ ≤ 0,∀S ⇔ E S
S∗ ≤ 1, ∀S
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Properties of growth rate W (b, F )
.Theorem W (b, F ) is concave in b and linear in F .
Let bF maximize W (b, F ) over all portfolios b :∑m
i=1 bi = 1.W ∗(F ) = W (bF , F )
W (b, F )
b
0 1
Theorem W ∗(F ) is convex in F .
Question: Let W (b) =∫
lnbtx dF (x). Is W (b) a transform?
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2. Stability of b∗: Expected proportion remains constant
b∗ is a stable point
Let b = (b1, b2, ..., bm) denote the proportion of wealth in each stock.
The proportions held in each stock at the end of the trading day are
b = (b1X1
btX,b2X2
btX, ...,
bmXm
btX)
Then b is log optimal if and only if
b = Eb
i.e. bi = E biXi
btX, i = 1, 2, ...,m, i.e. the expected proportions remain unchanged.
This is the counterpart to Kelly gambling.
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Generalization to arbitrary stochastic processes Xn
Xn: arbitrary stochastic process:
Wealth from bi(·) : Sn =n∏
i=1
btiXi, bi = bi(X
i−1)
Let S∗n =
n∏
i=1
b∗ti Xi, b∗
i = b∗i (Xi−1)
where b∗i is conditionally log optimal . Thus
b∗i (Xi−1) : max
b
ElnbtXi|Xi−1
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Optimality for arbitrary stochastic processes Xn
Theorem For any market process Xi,
ESn+1/S∗n+1|Xn ≤ Sn/S∗
n.
Sn/S∗n is a nonnegative super martingale with respect to Xn
Sn/S∗n −→ Y, a.e.
EY ≤ 1.
Corollary:Prsup
n
Sn
S∗n
≥ t ≤ 1/t,
by Kolmogorov’s inequality. So Sn cannot ever exceed S∗n by factor t with probability
greater than 1/t. Same as fair gambling.
Theorem If Xi is ergodic, then 1n
log S∗n −→ W , a.e.
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3. Value of Side Information
Theorem: Believe that X ∼ g, when in fact X ∼ f . Loss in growth rate:
∆(f‖g) = Ef logbt
fX
btgX
≤ D(f ||g) =
∫f log
f
g.
Mutual information: I(X; Y ) =∑
p(x, y) logp(x, y)
p(x)p(y)
Value of side information:
W (X) = maxb
E lnbtX, W (X|Y) = maxb(·)
E lnbt(Y)X
W (X) → W (X|Y )
b∗ b∗(y)
∆(X; Y ) = Increase in growth rate for market X.
Theorem: (A.Barron ,T.C.)∆(X;Y ) ≤ I(X;Y ).
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4. Black-Scholes option pricing
Cash: 1
Stock: Xi =
1 + u, w.p. p
1 − d, w.p. q
Option: Pay c dollars today for option to buy at time n the stock at price K.
c →
(Xn − K), Xn ≥ K
0, Xn < K
Black, Scholes idea:Replicate option by buying and selling Xi, at times i = 1, 2, ..., n.Example: Option expiration date n = 1. Strike price K. Initial wealth = c.
c1 + c2X = (X − K)+. c = c1 + c2.
If it takes c dollars to replicate option, then c is a correct price for the option.
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Black-Scholes option pricing
Growth optimal approach:(
1, X,(X − K)+
c
)
Best portfolio without option:
maxb1+b2=1E ln (b1 + b2X)
Growth optimal wealth:X∗ = b∗1 + b∗2X
Add option:
maxb
E ln
((1 − b)X∗ + b
(X − K)+
c
)
d
dbE ln
((1 − b)X∗ +
b(X − k)+
c
)∣∣∣∣b=0
= E
(X−K)+
c− X∗
X∗ ≥ 0,
or E(X − K)+
X∗ ≥ c.
Critical price:
c∗ = E(X − K)+
X∗ .
But this is the same critical option price c∗ as the Black Scholes theory.Note: c∗ does not depend on probabilities, only on u and d.
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5. Asymptotic Equipartition Principle
AEPX1, X2, ..., Xn i.i.d. ∼ p(x),
1
nlog
1
p(X1, X2, ...,Xn)→ H.
AEP for marketsWealth:
Sn =n∏
i=1
btXi.
1
nlog Sn → W.
Proof:1
nlog Sn =
1
nlog
n∏
i=1
btXi =1
n
n∑
i=1
log btXi → W.
p(X1, X2, ...,Xn).= 2−nH
Sn(X1, X2, ...,Xn).= 2nW
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Asymptotic Equipartition Principle: Horse race
b = (b1, b2, ..., bm),
X = (0, 0, ...,0, m︸︷︷︸, 0, ...,0), with probability pi,
b∗ = (p1, p2, ..., pm) Kelly gambling
Proof:
W = E log S
=m∑
i=1
pi log bim
= log m +∑
i
pi logbi
pi+
∑
i
pi log pi
≤ log m − H(p1, ..., pm),
with equality if and only if bi = pi, for i = 1, 2, ...,m.
Conservation law
W + H = log m
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Comparisons
Information Theory Investment
Entropy Rate Doubling RateH = −
∑pi log pi W ∗ = maxb E log btX
AEPp(X1, X2, ...,Xn)
.= 2−nH S∗(X1, X2, ...,Xn)
.= 2nW∗
Universal Data Compression Universal Portfolio Selectionl∗∗(X1, X2, ...,Xn)
.= nH S∗∗(X1, X2, ...,Xn)
.= 2nW∗
W ∗ + H ≤ log m
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6. Competitive optimality
X ∼ F (x). Consider the two-person zero sum game:
Player 1: Portfolio b1. Wealth S1 = W1bt1X.
Player 2: portfolio b1. Wealth S2 = W2bt2X.
Fair randomization: EW1 = EW2 = 1, Wi ≥ 0.
Payoff: PrS1 ≥ S2V = max
b1,W1
minb2,W2
PrS1 ≥ S2
Theorem (R.Bell, T.C.) The value V of the game is 1/2. Optimal strategy for player1 is b1 = b∗, where b∗ is the log optimal portfolio. W1 ∼ unif[0, 2].
Comment: b∗ is both long run and short run optimal.
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7. Universal portfolio selection
Market sequencex1,x2, . . . , xn
Sn(b) =n∏
i=1
btxi
S∗n = max
b
Sn(b) =n∏
i=1
b∗tXi.
Investor:bi(x1,x2, . . . ,xi−1)
Sn =n∏
i=1
btixi
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Minimax regret universal portfolio
Minimax regret for horizon n is defined as
R∗n = min
b(·)maxxn,b
∏ni=1 btxi∏n
i=1 bi(xi−1)xi
= minb
maxxn
S∗n
Sn
Theorem: (Erik Ordentlich, T.C.)
R∗n =
1
Vn,
where Vn =∑ ( n
n1,...,nm
)2−nH(
n1n
,..., nmn
)
Note: For m = 2 stocks,
Vn =∑n
k=0
(nk
)2−nH( k
n) ∼
√2
πn
Vn ≤ 2√n+1
Corollary: For m = 2 stocks, there exists bi(xi−1) such that
Sn ≥ 2S∗n√
n + 1, for every sequence x1, . . . , xn.
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Achieving R∗n: Universal Portfolio for horizon n
Portfolio bi(Xi−1) :Invest
b(jn) =1
Vn
(n1(jn)
n
)n1(jn) (n2(jn)
n
)n2(jn)
· · ·(
nm(jn)
n
)nm(jn)
in “plunging” strategy jn and let it ride, where jn ∈ 1, 2, ...,mn.
Example For horizon n = 2. For m = 2.
X1 = (X11, X12)
b1 = ( 12, 12)
b2(X1) = (45
X11+ 15
X12
X11+X12,
15
X11+ 45
X12
X11+X12)
b(11) = 4/10
b(12) = 1/10
b(21) = 1/10
b(22) = 4/10
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8. Accelerated Performance
Stock x ∈ Rm+ , requires b ∈ Rm
+ , so that btx ≥ 0.
Let X(α) = x ∈ Rm: xi ≥ α,
m∑
i=1
xi = 1
B(α) = b ∈ Rm :m∑
i=1
bi = 1, btx ≥ 0, ∀x ∈ X(α)
B(α) is polar cone to X (α): B(α) = X⊥(α).
B(α) allows short selling and buying on margin.
Thus x ∈ X (α), b ∈ B(α) yields S = btx ≥ 0.Let Ω = Rm
+ , X (α) = AΩ, B(α) = A−1Ω.
A =
(α 1 − α
1 − α α
)A
−1 =1
2α − 1
(α −(1 − α)
−(1 − α) α
)
b ∈ Ω,X ∈ Ω. b = A−1b ∈ B(α), X = AX ∈ X (α).
btX = bt(A−1
)tAX = btX
α 1 − α
X (α)
B(α)
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Accelerated Performance
Theorem (Acceleration (Erik Ordentlich, T.C., to appear))
m = 2 stocks. The short selling investor can come within factor Vn(α) of the bestlong-only investor given hindsight:
maxbi(·)∈B(α)
minx∈Xn(α),
b∈B(0)
∏ni=1 bt
ixi∏ni=1 btxi
= Vn(α),
where [x] = x rounded off to interval [α, α].
Vn(α) =n∑
k=0
(n
k
) [k
n
]k [n − k
n
]n−k
Note: Vn(α) ր. Vn(0) ∼√
2π
1√n
. Vn( 12) = 1.
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Accelerated Performance
0 50 100 150 200 250 300900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
160028−Sep−07 till 14−Oct−08
Time
S&
P50
0
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Accelerated Performance
−6 −4 −2 0 2 4 60
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
b
Sn
Sn*
Sn**
9/28/07 – 10/14/08, n = 263.S∗
n: Wealth of best long-only constant rebalanced portfolio in hindsight.S∗∗
n : Wealth of best short selling and margin constant rebalanced portfolio in hindsight.
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Accelerated Performance
−6 −4 −2 0 2 4 60
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
b
Sn
α=0.45 Sn^= 1.0475
Sn*
Sn**
Sn^
9/28/07 – 10/14/08, n = 263.S∗
n: Wealth of best long-only constant rebalanced portfolio in hindsight.S∗∗
n : Wealth of best short selling and margin constant rebalanced portfolio in hindsight.Sn: Wealth of universal portfolio.
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Comparisons with Information Theory
General Market Horse Race Market
X ∼ F (x) X = mei, pi
b∗ : Eb∗i Xi
b∗tX= b∗i bi = pi Kelly gambling
W ∗ = Eb∗tX W ∗ = log m − H(p), H =entropy
Wrong distribution G(x):
∆(F ||G) =∫ b
tF x
btG
xdF (x) ∆ =
∑pi ln pi
gi= D(p||g), relative entropy
Side information (X, Y) ∼ f(x, y):
∆ =∫
lnb
tf(x|y)x
btf(x)
xf(x,y)dxdy ∆ =
∑p(x, y) ln
p(x,y)p(x)p(y)
= I(X; Y ), mutual information
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Comparisons
General Market Horse Race Market
Asymptotic growth rateXi stationary:
W ∗ = maxb ElnbtX0|X−1−∞ W ∗ = log m − H(X0|X−1
−∞)= log m − H(X ), H(X ) = entropy rate
AEP for ergodic processes:
1n
log S∗n → W ∗, a.e. − 1
nlog p(Xn) → H(X ), a.e.
S∗n
·= 2nW∗
p(Xn)·= 2−nH
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Comparisons
Universal portfolio (individual sequences):
General Market Horse Race Market
x1,x2, ...,xn ∈ Rm+ x1, x2, ...,xn ∈ e1, ..., em
Sn(b, xn) =∏n
i=1 btxi Sn(b, xn) =∏m
i=1 bni(x
n)i
Sn(bn,xn) =∏n
i=1 bt(xi−1)xi Sn(bn, xn) = b(xn)
Vn Vn
Same cost of universality for both.
Vn = minb(·)
maxb,xn
Sn(bn,xn)
Sn(b, xn)
=∑ ( n
n1, ..., nm
)2−nH(
n1n
,...,nmn
)
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Concluding remarks
Growth optimal portfolios have many properties:
Long run optimality
Martingale property
Competitive optimality
Asymptotic equipartition property
Universal achievability
Black-Scholes
Amplification
Relationship with information theory
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References
Algoet Barron Bell BorodinCover Erkip Gluss GyorfiHakansson Iyengar Jamshidian LugosiMathis Merton Ordentlich PlatenSamuelson Shannon Thorp VajdaWarmuth Ziemba Markowitz SharpeDuffie
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References
R. Bell and T. Cover, “Game-Theoretic Optimal Portfolios,” Management Science,34(6):724-733, June 1988.
T. Cover, “Universal Portfolios,” Mathematical Finance, 1(1):1-29, January 1991.
T. Cover and E. Ordentlich, “Universal Portfolios with Side Information,”IEEETransactions on Information Theory, 42(2):348-363, March 1996.
E. Ordentlich and T. Cover, “The Cost of Achieving the Best Portfolio in Hindsight,”Mathematics of Operations Research, 23(4):960-982, November 1998.
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