The Nature and Pace of ChangeThe Nature and Pace of Change

Who are these People and How are they Different???

Anticipating ChangeAnticipating Change

Of course, you don’t Of course, you don’t have to go to the have to go to the distant past to distant past to discover those who discover those who thought they knew thought they knew the future. But, the future. But, we we have to anticipate have to anticipate change or all we can change or all we can do is react to it: crisis do is react to it: crisis managementmanagement

Prediction is always tricky, especially where Prediction is always tricky, especially where the future is involved (the future is involved (Sam Goldwyn)Sam Goldwyn)

Here are two best-selling books based on trying to predict the future

And Change Can Come And Change Can Come Very FastVery Fast

But, Life was not always like that.But, Life was not always like that.

99% of our ancestors lived in a 99% of our ancestors lived in a world where world where nothingnothing changed, changed, and they did not expect any and they did not expect any change.change.

Indeed until the last few Indeed until the last few hundred years, change was hundred years, change was dangerous to your health dangerous to your health because it challenged the because it challenged the existing order.existing order.

It was either It was either treasontreason or or heresyheresy

This could be 16th century Europe or 1st century Rome.

The Salem Witch Trials were evidence of the resistance to change in early America

Any challenge to the existing order of society was considered challenging something ordained by God, and so you were executed as a traitor.

Those who challenged the existing religion were deemed Heretics and executed.

Why did change begin?Why did change begin?

In China, right up to the 1900s, the Emperors sat on a throne underneath a sign which simply said: Change Nothing. This does not encourage free-thinking.

When the Protestant religion developed in Europe it broke the old Catholic rigid order that had persecuted people like Galileo, and it allowed, and even encouraged, change. This came in time to unleash all those minds that created the Industrial Revolution and Capitalism. They were looked down on in the Old Europe, and once they secured power, the world was their oyster.

Themes in our Study of the Themes in our Study of the ProcessProcess of Change of Change

To study change as a process is To study change as a process is something newsomething new

Change is now an Change is now an expectationexpectation The need for us to think The need for us to think StrategicallyStrategically Can you Can you everever predict change? predict change? The danger of Change as an The danger of Change as an Act of FaithAct of Faith The The Speed Speed of change and our structures of change and our structures

for dealing with change—will they be for dealing with change—will they be overwhelmed?overwhelmed?

This lady was born in 1903, and is still going. The remarkable thing is that she is older than:

•The Federal Reserve Bank (she was 11)

•The Flying Machine

•The Radio

•The TV, and

•When she was 12, it took 62 days to drive across America.

•There were fewer cars in America than there are in Bloomington today.

• Women did not work for money, there was no credit, and no social security (she was 34 when that happened).

•The State of Indiana was 87 years old.

Consider Consider ProgressProgress

Progress Progress was not a concept our was not a concept our ancestors understood.ancestors understood.

Now Now policypolicy mustmust stress progress, i.e. stress progress, i.e. economic economic growthgrowth. If we are not . If we are not growing, we are growing, we are stagnatingstagnating or or decliningdeclining. Where does it stop? When is . Where does it stop? When is enough enough?enough enough?

Have we gone from “no expectations” Have we gone from “no expectations” to “The Prozac Generation” as a way to “The Prozac Generation” as a way of coping with too much change of coping with too much change coming at us coming at us too fast?too fast?

Quantifying the Rate of Change Quantifying the Rate of Change in Technology.in Technology.

Some Theory: 1, Some Theory: 1, SchumpeterSchumpeter

Josef Schumpeter, an Austrian economist, came up with the idea that change comes in waves, not as a smooth progression from one thing to the next. These waves get overtaken by new technologies, like oil displacing steam. But notice, tbe length of each wave diminishes meaning change is getting faster. Also, notice the slope of the back of the wave (left side of wave). It is getting steeper. What does that mean?

Some Theory: 2, Some Theory: 2, Alvin TofflerAlvin Toffler

An American psychologist, he wrote An American psychologist, he wrote a book in the 60s called a book in the 60s called Future Future ShockShock

Basically, it says that we can cope Basically, it says that we can cope with a certain speed of change—our with a certain speed of change—our institutions institutions and and instrumentsinstruments can be can be modified to adapt.modified to adapt.

However, there comes a pace when However, there comes a pace when these are these are overwhelmedoverwhelmed, and they , and they collapse with nothing to put in their collapse with nothing to put in their place. E.g. place. E.g. the familythe family

“The roaring current of change, a current so powerful today that it overturns institutions, shifts our values and kills our roots. Change is the process by which the future invades our lives.I became appalled by how little is actually known about adaptivity…Earnest intellectuals talk bravely about “educating for change,” or “preparing people for the future.” But we know virtually nothing about how to do it.Many studies focus on where change is taking us, but there is very little on how we adapt to it, which is a function of the rate of change.”

“The Death of Permanence.”

Just think about it. Napoleon and

his army traveled at the same

speed as Julius Caesar. Grant

could use the locomotive and today

we can be in Iraq in half a day.”

Alvin speaks……Alvin speaks……

His Real Warning Comes in His Real Warning Comes in this Quote….this Quote….

“The Roaring Current of change; a current so powerful today, that it overturns institutions, shifts our values, and kills our roots. Change is the process by which the future invades our lives.”

Here is the same thing from a Here is the same thing from a Business Leader…Business Leader…

““In our era, the pace of In our era, the pace of technological change has vastly technological change has vastly accelerated—while the ability of accelerated—while the ability of people to absorb and adapt to people to absorb and adapt to these changes these changes hasn’t improved hasn’t improved at allat all””

Paul Song: CEO, Aris Paul Song: CEO, Aris Corporation, August 1999.Corporation, August 1999.

But What are We Supposed But What are We Supposed to do About This?to do About This?

Same Problem 170 years laterSame Problem 170 years later

A group at MIT, using state-of-the-art computing technology in the late 1960s, showed that if world consumption and population continued to grow, our life-support system would collapse—many things within 25 years. In fact many of the things got better. So, the people and policy makers are very wary of doomsayers. The reverse of that is, strangely, a blind faith in technology to pull something out of the hat. “We’ll be ok. Just you wait and see.” This is a godsend to the politician.

Different, but related Different, but related problem…problem…

People tend to believe what they want to believe, an idea we call cognitive dissonance. Good phrase, learn it and impress your friends who did not go to college, but have better cars than you do.

Policy almost always arises from a crisis But good policy should be ahead of the

curve, not running along behind. Your options are already seriously diminished by then.

Yes, you can try to plan for the future, even though you cannot be sure. Use risk analysis, especially when making policy or getting married.

One thing that does not change is people. What you see is what you get. And yet, many people marry despite fatal flaws in the other person because of peer pressure, or the idea that “they will change.” They may change—they may get worse.

One More ProblemOne More Problem People never anticipate how fast

change can happen, and the business world is littered with the corpses of such enterprises. Then they get caught unprepared. Look at Global Warming.

People never believe how big or how radical change can be, and they never learn from experience. How big does global warming have to be before we describe it as a crisis?

Policymakers are constrained by the very short time-horizon of their term of office….

The flat wax disk 1900The flat wax disk 1900

The LP 1940/50The LP 1940/50

Stereo LP 1950sStereo LP 1950s

Reel to Reel 1950sReel to Reel 1950s

The short-lived 8-track The short-lived 8-track 1950-601950-60

The Cassette Recorder The Cassette Recorder 1960 d1990s1960 d1990s

The CD, 1980sThe CD, 1980s

MP3 1990sMP3 1990s

And since then?.....And since then?.....

Ipod and podcasting; totally Ipod and podcasting; totally digital sound systems of digital sound systems of enormous capacity. First wax enormous capacity. First wax disks could hold 3 minutes. Now disks could hold 3 minutes. Now we have DVDs that hold 5 we have DVDs that hold 5 GigabytesGigabytes

Downloading of digital musicDownloading of digital music Streaming internet sound and Streaming internet sound and

picturespictures And?And?

And Next….?And Next….?

Evidence and “Victims” of ChangeEvidence and “Victims” of Change

Evidence and “Victims” of ChangeEvidence and “Victims” of Change

Evidence and “Victims” of ChangeEvidence and “Victims” of Change

Evidence and “Victims” of ChangeEvidence and “Victims” of Change

HomogenizationHomogenization

Evidence and “Victims” of ChangeEvidence and “Victims” of Change

Evidence and “Victims” of ChangeEvidence and “Victims” of Change