The Need for an Accelerated Protein Transition

Protein2Food MeetingJan 29th 2020

Charles GodfrayOxford Martin School

University of Oxford

• Food system challenges?

• Can we feed the world within

“planetary boundaries”

• Alternative proteins

This talk

The three waves of Malthusian pessimism

• 1790s; Malthus Essay on the Principle of

Population

• Industrial Revolution

• 1960’s & 70’s; Limits to Growth, Population Bomb

• Green Revolution

• From 2008; The Perfect Storm

• ??

UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2015 Revision

Billionpeople

Estimate with95 & 80%confidencelimits

ForecastData

Future population growth(medium fecundity assumption)

Now

2050

2100

23% chanceof peakbefore 2100

Alexandratos, N. & Bruinsma, J. World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. FAO, 2012.

Current regional and projected global meat consumption

Coming challenge

• Continuing demand growth

• Urbanisation & mega-cities

• Hunger & under-nutrition +

Obesity & over-nutrition

• Pressures on agriculture

• Water scarcity

• Competition for land and soil degradation

• More frequent shocks

• Climate change

• Geopolitical

Can we feed the worldwithin planetary

boundaries?

• Planetary boundaries & the Lancet

Commission

• What food types challenge boundaries?

• What sets of solution maintain safe

operating space?

Nature (2018): 562, 519

Cropmodel

Water usemodel

Economicmodel

Healthoutcomes

Environ.outcomes

Economicconsequences

Emissionscenarios

Climate models

Populationscenarios

Socioecon.scenariosDiets

Modelling StrategyLed by Marco Springmann (Ox)

Oxford & International Food Policy

Research Institute, DC

Planetary boundaries

Johan

Rockström

Percentage contributions of different sectors to total agricultural greenhouse emissions

Meat alternatives

Marco Springmann & Report for World Economic Forum

100604020Now 80

Cooling

effect

Years into the future

CO2

Methane

• Calculation: John Lynch

Cooling consequence of not emitting different greenhouse gasses now

• Reducing methane critical to meeting

targets in next few decades

• Don’t trade-off CO2 for methane

Warming impact for perpetual consumption at high rates (250 Mt per year) for beef cattle and cultured meat production systems

Lynch & Pierrehumbert Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 2019

High Sodium

High red meat

Low milk

High processed meat

Global Burden of

Disease Study 2019

Tong et al European Heart Journal 2019

Analysis of diet and stroke in 418,239 people in EPIC cohort

Alex Sexton and Report for World Economic Forum

Alex Sexton and Report for World Economic Forum

The three waves of Malthusian pessimism

• 1790s; Malthus Essay on the Principle of

Population

• Industrial Revolution

• 1960’s & 70’s; Limits to Growth, Population Bomb

• Green Revolution

• From 2008; The Perfect Storm

• Double-green Supply+Demand Side Revolution