the never ending era of uncertainty: managing risk in a volatile world northeast business and...

The Never Ending Era of Uncertainty:

Managing Risk in a Volatile WorldNortheast Business and Economics Association

Port Jefferson, NYOctober 26, 2012

Download at www.iii.org/presentationsRobert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist

Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org

2

Thank You: Bob and Rachel Hartwig(aka Dad and Mom)

3

What in the World Is Going On?

Is the World Becoming a Riskier, More Uncertain Place?

All Major Categories of Risk Influence Economies on a Global Scale

4

Uncertainty, Risk and Fear Abound

Never Ending Echoes of the Financial Crisis European Sovereign Debt & Eurozone Crises The “Fiscal Cliff”: US Debt and Budget Crisis Unintended Consequences of (Over)Regulation “Hard Landing” in China Housing Crisis Political Gridlock: US, Europe Political Upheaval in the Middle East Resurgent Terrorism Risk Diffusion of Weapons of Mass Destruction Cyber Attacks Record Natural Disaster Losses Climate Change Environmental Degradation Income Inequality Insomnia??? Are “Black Swans”

everywhere or does it just seem

that way?

5

Hurricane Sandy:Storm of Historic Proportions?

Source: NOAA (as of 11 AM Oct. 26, 2012); Insurance Information Institute.

Hurricane Sandy is just the latest in a

long list of unusual and

severe weather

events. What is the cause?

Can the risk of events like Sandy be

managed?

6

5 Major Categories for Global Risks, Uncertainties and Fears

1. Economic Risks

2. Geopolitical Risks

3. Environmental Risks

4. Technological Risks

5. Societal Risks

Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2012; Insurance Information Institute.

While risks can be broadly

categorized, none are mutually exclusive

7

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood, 2007—2012


In 2012, concerns

over income

disparity and fiscal

imbalances displaced weather

and water concerns, as ranked

by likelihood

Concerns Shift Considerably Over Short Spans of Time. Shift in 2012 to Economic Risks and Away from Environmental Risks

8

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact,2007—2012


Concerns Over the Impacts of Economics Risks Remained High in 2012, but Societal Risks Displaced Environmental Risks

Impacts from

economic and

societal risks were

of the greatest

concern in 2012

9

Economic Risk: Foremost on the Minds in “Advanced” Economies

Economic Risks Chronic fiscal imbalances Severe income disparity Extreme volatility in energy

and food prices Recurring liquidity crises Major systemic failure Adverse unintended

consequences of regulation Unmanageable in/deflation Chronic labor mkt. imbalances Hard landing of emerging economy


Economic Risk Landscape

10

US Real GDP Growth*

* Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 10/12; Insurance Information Institute.

2.7

%0

.5%

3.6

%3

.0%

1.7

%-1

.8%

1.3

%-3

.7%

-5.3

%-0

.3%

1.4

%5

.0%

2.3

%2

.2%

2.6

%2

.4%

0.1

%2

.5%

1.3

%4

.1%

2.0

%1

.3%

2.0

%1

.8%

1.7

%2

.2%

2.6

%2

.8%

-8.9%

4.1

%1

.1%

1.8

%2

.5% 3.6

%3

.1%

-9%

-7%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

2

00

0

2

00

1

2

00

2

2

00

3

2

00

4

2

00

5

2

00

6

07

:1Q

07

:2Q

07

:3Q

07

:4Q

08

:1Q

08

:2Q

08

:3Q

08

:4Q

09

:1Q

09

:2Q

09

:3Q

09

:4Q

10

:1Q

10

:2Q

10

:3Q

10

:4Q

11

:1Q

11

:2Q

11

:3Q

11

:4Q

12

:1Q

12

:2Q

12

:3Q

12

:4Q

13

:1Q

13

:2Q

13

:3Q

13

:4Q

Slow Growth Is Likely to Persist Well into 2013. Recession Will Be Averted Barring a Total Political Failure Pushing Us Over the “Fiscal

Cliff”

Real GDP Growth (%)

Recession began in Dec. 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing

slump, labor market contraction has been

severe but modest recovery is underway

The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8%

2012 is expected to see slow growth lasting into 2013; Fed’s QE3 could

push 2013 GDP up 0.2%

11

Real GDP Growth Forecasts: Major Economies: 2011 – 2013F

Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (9/2012 issue); Insurance Information Institute.

1.7%

0.7% 1.

5%

3.1%

2.2%

-0.3

%

0.9%

7.8%

2.3%

2.1%

1.1%

0.3% 1.

1%

8.2%

1.4%

9.2%

-0.7%-0.5%-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

US UK Euro Area Germany China Japan

2011 2012F 2013F

Growth Prospects Vary Widely by Region: Stabilizing in the US, Mild Recession in the Eurozone, A “Soft Landing” in China and India,

Reconstruction Stimulus in Japan and Modest Growth in America’s Largest Trading Partners—Canada and Mexico.

The Eurozone and UK are in

recession. Both should end by early

2013

China growth has slowed, but remains strong in an expected “soft landing”

scenario

Tepid US recovery

continues

Rebuilding acts as a

stimulus to Japanese economy

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

F1

3F

Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies World

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook , Oct. 2012; Ins. Info. Institute.

Emerging economies (led by China) are expected to grow by 5.3% in 2012 and

5.6% in 2013.

GDP Growth: Advanced & Emerging Economies vs. World, 1970-2013F

Advanced economies are expected to grow at a sluggish pace of 1.3% in

2012 and 1.5% in 2013.

World output is forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. The world economy shrank by 0.6% in

2009 amid the global financial crisis

GDP Growth (%)

13

Global Real (Inflation Adjusted) NonlifePremium Growth: 1980-2010

Source: Swiss Re, sigma, No. 2/2010.

Nonlife premium growth in emerging markets has

exceeded that of industrialized countries in

27 of the past 31 years, including the entirety of the

global financial crisis..

Real nonlife premium growth is very erratic in part to inflation volatility in emerging markets as

well as a lack of consistent cyclicality

Average: 1980-2010

Industrialized Countries: 3.8%

Emerging Markets: 9.2%

Overall Total: 4.2%

14

Regulatory Risk: Financial Sector in Consumed with Post-Crisis Concerns

Source: Insurance Information Institute.

Capital Adequacy, Quality, Liquidity,

Leverage, Prudential Oversight

Dodd-Frank

Basel III

Solvency II

Systemic Importance

US

Global

15

Geopolitical Risk: Foremost on the Minds in “Emerging” Economies

Geopolitical Risks Pervasive entrenched corruption Critical fragile states Terrorism Failure of diplomatic conflict

resolution Global governance failure Entrenched organized crime Widespread illicit trade Diffusion of WMD Unilateral resource

nationalization Militarization of space


Geopolitical Risk Landscape

16

Political Risk in 2011/12: Greatest Business Opportunities Are Often in Risky Nations

Source: Maplecroft

The fastest growing markets are generally

also among the politically riskiest,

including East and South Asia

Heightened risk has economic and insurance implications

Much of the middle East and North Africa have

experienced and continue to experience

political turmoil

17

The “Arab Spring” Has Increased Uncertainty in an Already Volatile Part of the World

Source: Wikipedia as of Nov. 7, 2011; Insurance Information Institute research.

Some energy-rich nations have been among the most

unstable in 2011/12

Longer-run, significant

investment and insurance

opportunities exist throughout

the region

Government overthrown Sustained civil disorder and governmental changes Protests and governmental changes Major protests Minor protests Protests outside the Arab world

Arab Springالربيع العربي

18

Terrorist Risk Index, 2011

Sources: Maplecroft Terrorism Risk Index; Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute.

The threat of terrorism is highest in

South Asia, Russia, the Middle East and Central

and East Africa

The US is still

considered to be at

“Medium Risk” for a

terrorist attack

19

Global Terrorist Attacks and Deaths, 2004-2011

Sources: National Counterterrorism Center, 2011 Report on Terrorism; Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute.

The number of terrorist attacks

globally fell by 11.7% in 2011 while the number of deaths dropped by 5.0%

2011

10

,28

3

12

,53

3

11

,64

1

13

,19

3

20

Frequent Reminders of Terrorist Threat: New and Old

Sources: Insurance Information Institute.

In Oct. 2012, the FBI arrested a 21-year old Bangladeshi man who

wanted to bomb the NY Federal Reserve

building in Lower Manhattan

Freedom Tower under construction

in Oct. 2012. Insurance money is the primary source

of funds for rebuilding the WTC

site

Life$1.2 (3%)

Aviation Liability

$4.3 (11%)

Other Liability

$4.9 (12%)

Biz Interruption $13.5 (33%)

Property -WTC 1 & 2*$4.4 (11%) Property -

Other$7.4 (19%)

Aviation Hull$0.6 (2%)

Event Cancellation

$1.2 (3%)Workers Comp

$2.2 (6%)

Total Insured Losses Estimate: $40.0B***Loss total does not include March 2010 New York City settlement of up to $657.5 million to compensate approximately 10,000 Ground Zero workers or any subsequent settlements.

**$32.5 billion in 2001 dollars.

Source: Insurance Information Institute.

Loss Distribution by Type of Insurancefrom Sept. 11 Terrorist Attack ($ 2011)

($ Billions)

Terrorism Violates Traditional Requirements for Insurability

Requirement Definition Violation

EstimableFrequency

Insurance requires large number of observations to develop predictive rate-making models (an actuarial concept known as credibility)

Very few data pointsTerror modeling still in infancy, untested.Inconsistent assessment of threat

EstimableSeverity

Maximum possible/ probable loss must be at least estimable in order to minimize “risk of ruin” (insurer cannot run an unreasonable risk of insolvency though assumption of the risk)

Potential loss is virtually unbounded.Losses can easily exceed insurer capital resources for paying claims.Extreme risk in workers compensation and statute forbids exclusions.

Source: Insurance Information Institute

Requirement Definition Violation

Diversifiable Risk

Must be able to spread/distribute risk across large number of risks“Law of Large Numbers” helps makes losses manageable and less volatile

Losses likely highly concentrated geographically or by industry (e.g., WTC, power plants)

Random Loss Distribution/Fortuity

Probability of loss occurring must be purely random and fortuitousEvents are individually unpredictable in terms of time, location and magnitude

Terrorism attacks are planned, coordinated and deliberate acts of destructionDynamic target shifting from “hardened targets” to “soft targets”Terrorist adjust tactics to circumvent new security measuresActions of US and foreign govts. may affect likelihood, nature and timing of attackSource: Insurance

Information Institute

Terrorism Violates Traditional Requirements for Insurability (cont’d)

24

Environmental Risk: Vulnerability and Susceptibility Vary Across Globe

Environmental Risks Rising greenhouse gas emissions Failure of climate change

adaptation Land/water use mismanagement Mismanaged urbanization Antibiotic-resistant bacteria Persistent extreme weather Species overexploitation Irremediable pollution Vulnerability to geomagnetic storms


Environmental Risk Landscape

25

Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2011**

(Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions)

*Average of range estimates of $35B - $40B as of 1/4/12; Privately insured losses only.**Figures do not include federally insured flood losses.Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute research.

$11.9$13.0 $13.0$13.1

$19.1$21.3

$24.0$25.0

$37.5

$47.6

$7.7 $8.1 $8.3 $8.5 $9.3 $9.7

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50

Hugo (1989)

WinterStormDaria(1991)

ChileQuake(2010)

Ivan (2004)

TyphoonMirielle(1991)

Charley(2004)

Wilma(2005)

ThailandFloods(2011)

NewZealandQuake(2011)

Ike (2008)

Northridge(1994)

SpringTornadoes/

Storms(2011)

WTC TerrorAttack(2001)

Andrew(1992)

JapanQuake,

Tsunami(2011)*

Katrina(2005)

5 of the top 14 most expensive

catastrophes in world history have occurred within the past 2 years

Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and

thunderstorm season would likely become the 5th

costliest event in global insurance history

26

Global Catastrophe Loss Summary: 2011 Was a Global Record Breaker

2011 Was the Highest Loss Year on Record for Economic Losses Globally

Extraordinary accumulation of severe natural catastrophe: Earthquakes, tsunami, floods and tornadoes are the primary causes of loss

$380 Billion in Economic Losses Globally (New Record)

New record, exceeding the previous record of $270B in 2005

$105 Billion in Insured Losses Globally

2011 losses were 2.5 times 2010 insured losses of $42B

Second only to 2005 on an inflation adjusted basis (new record on a unadjusted basis)

Over 5 times the 30-year average of $19B

$72.8 Billion in Economic Losses in the US

Represents a 129% increase over the $11.8 billion amount through the first half of 2010

$35.9 Billion in Insured Losses in the US Arising from 171 CAT Events

Fifth highest year on record

Represents 51% increase over the $23.8 billion total in 2010

Source: Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute.

Geophysical events(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

Meteorological events (storm)

Hydrological events(flood, mass movement)

Selection of significant loss events (see table)

Natural catastrophes

Earthquake, tsunami Japan, 11 March

EarthquakeNew Zealand, 22 Feb.

Cyclone Yasi Australia, 2–7 Feb.

Landslides, flash floodsBrazil, 12/16 Jan.

Floods, flash floods Australia, Dec. 2010–Jan. 2011

Severe storms, tornadoesUSA, 22–28 April

Severe storms, tornadoesUSA, 20–27 May

WildfiresUSA, April/Sept.

EarthquakeNew Zealand, 13 June

FloodsUSA, April–May

Climatological events(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Number of Events: 820Number of Events: 820

DroughtUSA, Oct. 2010– ongoing

Hurricane IreneUSA, Caribbean22 Aug.–2 Sept.

WildfiresCanada, 14–22 May

DroughtSomaliaOct. 2010–Sept. 2011

FloodsPakistanAug.–Sept.

FloodsThailandAug.–Nov.

Earthquake Turkey23 Oct.

Flash floods, floodsItaly, France, Spain4–9 Nov.

Floods, landslidesGuatemala, El Salvador11–19 Oct.

Tropical Storm WashiPhilippines, 16–18 Dec.

Winter Storm JoachimFrance, Switzerland, Germany, 15–17 Dec.

27Source: MR NatCatSERVICE

Natural Loss Events, 2011

World Map

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 2011Insured losses US$ 105bn - Percentage distribution per continent

Continent Insured losses US$ m

America (North and South

America)40,000

Europe 2,000

Africa Minor damages

Asia 45,000

Australia/Oceania 18,000

37%

2%

44%

17%

<1%


In 2011, 61% of insured natural catastrophe losses

were in the Asia/Pacific region, nearly 3.5 times the

average of 13% over the prior 30 years (1981-2010)

In 2011, just 37% of insured natural

catastrophe losses were in the

Americas, barely half the average of 66%

over the prior 30 years (1981-2010)

28

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 1980 – 2011 Insured losses US$ 870bn - Percentage distribution per continent

Continent Insured losses US$ m

America (North and South

America)566,000

Europe 146,000

Africa 2,000

Asia 115,000

Australia/Oceania 41,000

66%

16%

<1%

13%

5%


In 2011, 61% of natural catastrophe losses were

in the Asia/Pacific region, nearly 3.5 times the

average of 13% over the prior 30 years (1981-2010)

29

30

$1

2.3

$1

0.7

$3

.7

$1

4.0

$1

1.3

$6

.0

$3

3.9

$7

.4 $1

5.9

$3

2.9

$7

1.7

$1

0.3

$7

.3

$2

8.5

$1

1.2

$1

4.1

$3

2.3

$1

3.8

$1

3.7

$4

.7

$7

.8

$3

6.9

$8

.6

$2

5.8

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12*

US Insured Catastrophe Losses

*PCS figure for H1 2012 (stated in 2012 dollars).Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

US CAT Losses in 2011 Were the 5th Highest in US History on An Inflation-Adjusted Basis

H1 2012 CAT losses were down $11.9B or 49% from

$24.4B in H1 2011

Record Tornado Losses Caused

2011 CAT Losses to Surge

($ Billions, 2011 Dollars)

30

31

Top 14 Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History

(Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions)

*Losses will actually be broken down into several “events” as determined by PCS. Includes losses for the period April 1 – June 30.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments.

$9.0$11.9 $13.1

$19.1$21.3

$24.0 $25.0

$47.6

$8.5$7.7$6.5$5.5$4.4$4.3

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50

Irene(2011)

Jeanne(2004)

Frances(2004)

Rita (2005)

Hugo (1989)

Ivan (2004)

Charley(2004)

Wilma(2005)

Ike (2008)

Northridge(1994)

SpringTornadoes& Storms*

(2011)

9/11Attack(2001)

Andrew(1992)

Katrina(2005)

Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and storm season are

is the 4th costliest event in US insurance history

Hurricane Irene became the 11th most expense

hurricane in US history

Nu

mb

er

Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire)

Meteorological (storm)

Hydrological (flood, mass movement)

Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 – 2012:H1Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2011 and First Half 2012)

Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 32

22

6

61

1

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

There were 90 natural disaster events in the first

half of 2012

Losses Due to Natural Disasters in the US, 1980–2011 (Overall & Insured Losses)

33

Overall losses (in 2011 values) Insured losses (in 2011 values)

Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re

(2011 Dollars, $ Billions)

2011

Overall Losses: $72.8 Bill

Insured Losses: $35.9 Bill

2011 was the 5th most expensive year on record for insured

catastrophe losses in the US.

Approximately 50% of the overall cost of

catastrophes in the US was covered by insurance in 2011

(Overall and Insured Losses)

Source: NOAA 34

Global Temperature Anomolies, May 2012

Northern hemisphere land

and ocean temperature for May 2012 was

the all-time warmest on

record, at 0.85 degrees C (1.53

degrees F) above average

35

78.4

2.4 3.77.0

2.9

39.4

81.6

6.3 3.7

16.722.9

69.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Hydropower Geothermal MunicipalWaste

Wood/Biomass Solar Wind

2010 2035

Average annual change

(Gigawatts)

Wind is expected to experience the greatest change in capacity but

solar will experience the fastest growth

+0.2%

+4.0% +0.1%

+3.5 %+8.6 %

+2.3 %

U.S. Renewable Energy Net Summer Capacity & Avg. Ann. Change, by Source, 2010 – 2035P

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Appendix A16; Insurance Information Institute.

347.7

472.4508.3

551.5595.7

637.3678.3

462.1

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 2005 2006 2010P 2015P 2020P 2025P 2030P

World Primary Energy Consumption, 1990-2030P

Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute.

Between 2006 and 2030, energy consumption in projected to increase

annually by 1.5% worldwide but only 0.5% in the US

Quadrillion BTUs

Global energy consumption is

expected to increase by 33.4% between 2010 and 2030 but by only 12% in

the US

37

World Energy Consumption by Fuel,1990—2035F

Source: US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011; Insurance Information Institute.

Renewables will account for 14% of global energy consumption by

2035, up from 20% in 2008

38

Oil & Gas Extraction Employment,Jan. 2010—August 2012*

*Seasonally adjustedSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute.

156

157

157

158 159

158

158 16

0

160 16

2

161

161 16

3 164 16

7 170 17

1 173 17

5 177 18

0 183

183 18

6 188 19

0 192

193

194 19

5 196 197

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

Jan-

10

Feb

-10

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug

-10

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb

-11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

2/30

/210

2

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Oil and gas extraction employment is up 26.3% since Jan. 2010 as the energy sector

booms.

(Thousands)

http://bls.gov/mls/

39

Distribution of Major Shale Deposits: 5.76 Tr. Cu. Ft. in 48 Shale Basins in 32 Countries

Source: US Energy Information Administration; Insurance Information Institute.

Europe and S. America also have large deposits

Initial assessments reveal 5.76 trillion cu. ft. of shale gas

worldwide, including 1.069 trillion cu. Ft. in North America

40

Technological Risks: Vulnerability and Susceptibility Vary Across the Globe Technological Risks

Cyber attacks Massive data fraud/theft Mineral resource supply

vulnerability Massive digital misinformation Unintended consequences of

new life sciences technologies Unintended consequences of

climate change mitigation Unintended consequences of

nanotechnology

Persistent extreme weather


Technological Risk Landscape

41

Cyber Risk Threat Spectrum:Terrorism is a Concern

Sources: Waterfall Security Solutions.

Combination of cyber

attack with inside access

Highly targeted (low volume)

attacks; Dedicated afford

to do harm

Stuxnet: Autonomous Attack Sabotaging Iranian Uranium Enrichment Facilities Likely created by US and Israeli intelligence services Based on deep insider intelligence, planted deep inside perimeter using USB sticks

Advanced Persistent Threats (APT) = Manual Control Human-powered, but demonstrated ability to penetrate almost any defense

42

Societal Risks: Vulnerability and Susceptibility Vary Across the Globe Societal Risks

Water supply crisis Food shortage crisis Rising religious fanaticism Vulnerability to pandemics Unmanaged migration Mismanagement of

population aging Unsustainable population

growth Backlash against globalization Ineffective drug policies


Societal Risk Landscape

43

Summary & Conclusions

SO…Is the World Really a Riskier Place?

44

Reasons for Optimism, Causes for Concern in the Insurance Industry No Shortage of Local & Global Threats—Same Throughout Human History and

the “Human Struggle” Will Never End Economic insecurity

Geopolitical instability

Natural and manmade disasters

But by Many Objective Measures Humans Are Much Better Off than at any Time in History Lifespan

Standard of living

Education

But Many of These Advances Are Fragile Many historical examples of societal collapses

Good News: World Will Likely Avoid Falling into Another Global Recession But…It Is Still Unclear if Humans Can Successfully Manage Global Threats in a

Cooperative Manner Interconnectedness through trade, finance, technology, intellectual exchange, natural

resources and climate is unparalleled in human history

www.iii.org

Thank you for your timeand your attention!

Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwigDownload at www.iii.org/presentations

Insurance Information Institute Online:

45

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