the new brazilian economic policies the new brazilian economic policies balanced, sustainable and...

THE NEW BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC POLICIESBalanced, Sustainable, Business Friendly

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1st EditionDECEMBER 2017

A series of booklets about doing business in Brazil. The series aims at publishing official, transparent, reliable information for those interested in investments and trade in Brazil - or those interested in knowing more about the country and its business environment. Every booklet deals with specific matters related to Brazil’s economic activity, including macro- and micro-economic information, regulations, policies, forecasts, as acknowledged by the Federal Government. easyBrasil series will be available both in paper and digital formats.

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Since May 2016, the new Brazilian government adopted an extensive reform agenda, targeting fiscal balance and sustainable growth. The first relevant step was the approval of Constitutional Amendment No. 95, which created the New Fiscal Regime and established a spending cap for the federal budget.

A set of measures, described ahead, comprises the range of reforms Brazil’s government is promoting: reform of the pension system - the leading component of the government’s primary spending; mandatory containment of the Federal Government’s expenditure; replacement of the Long-term Interest Rate (TJLP) for the market-converging Long-Term Rate (TLP); reform of the labor laws, tax reform, and business friendly measures.

THE NEW BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC POLICIESBalanced, Sustainable, Business Friendly

3Balanced, Sustainable and Business Friendly

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contents

1. Addressing the fiscAl chAllenge 3

2. new fiscAl regime (nfr) 8

3. tAx reform 15

4. single foreign trAde window – centrAlized PAyment 16

5. BrAziliAn sociAl security: Access And sustAinABility 17

6. lABor reform 20

7. regulAtory frAmework for investment in infrAstructure 21

1. AddreSSing the FiScAl chAllenge

fiscal imbalance is the greatest risk factor for the performance of the Brazilian economy. since the early nineties, Brazil has increased primary expenditure beyond gdP growth. from 1997 to 2015, real primary spending increased at an annual rate of 6%, mainly due to growing costs of the country’s generous social safety net, the expansion of transfers to the private sector, and accentuated real growth of wages controlled by the government. see figure 1 below.

Since May 2016, the new Brazilian government adopted an extensive reform agenda,

targeting fiscal balance and sustainable growth. The first relevant step was the

approval of Constitutional Amendment No. 95, which created the New Fiscal Regime

and established a spending cap for the federal budget.

A set of measures, described ahead, comprises the range of reforms Brazil’s government

is promoting: reform of the pension system - the leading component of the government’s

primary spending; mandatory containment of the Federal Government’s expenditure;

replacement of the Long-term Interest Rate (TJLP) for the market-converging Long-Term

Rate (TLP); reform of the labor laws, tax reform, and business friendly measures.

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

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2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.20

FIGURE 1Source: Brazil’sNational Treasury

Federal Government’s Primary Spending (% of GDP)

4 5The New Brazilian Economic Policies Balanced, Sustainable and Business Friendly

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In recent years, the growing debt created uncertainties regarding the inter-temporal sustainability of public debt. As public finances deteriorated, interest rates and risk perception increased. Brazil lost its coveted investment grade status, assigned by major rating agencies. With inflation and unemployment rising in 2015, households’ confidence also crumbled and private consumption slowed down.

to face those challenges, the Brazilian government has proposed a very ambitious set of reforms that represents the biggest overhaul of Brazil’s economic governance in decades.

A constitutional amendment imposing strict rules to limit further increases in public spending has been approved. Another constitutional amendment has been presented to the national congress to reform the pension system. Fiscal consolidation

became a priority. congress has passed new rules aimed at transforming Brazilian labor laws into a more flexible and simplified legislation. enterprise-crushing regulations are to be lifted. A public-private partnership investment program aims at increasing the participation of the private sector – including foreign investment - in infrastructure projects. Legislative changes to reduce the complexity of the Brazilian tax system are being developed. Brazil is also opening its economy to foreign trade, investment and migration.

As a result, the downward trajectory of the indexes of confidence in the Brazilian economy (Figures 2 and 3), especially of consumers, has been reversed since 2016. such reversion reflects changes in the existing expectations, and growing confidence in the future fiscal solvency of the federal Government, after the approval of the spending cap in December 2016.

As a result of the reforms, the downward trajectory of the indexes of confidence in the Brazilian economy (Figures 2 and 3), especially of consumers, has been reversed since 2016.

In stopping the growth of primary expenditures, the spending cap makes clear the need for reforms in mandatory expenditure, so that the public sector may achieve primary surpluses once again.

Despite the federal Government’s non-mandatory spending having registered a declining trajectory

over the past two years, as can be seen in Figure 4, the dynamics of mandatory spending still keeps overall expenditures increasing. With the limit to public spending already in force, at the end of 2017, the projections indicate that the level of non-mandatory expenditure will return to the same level of 2010.

CCSI Bimonthly Average

Source: FGV/IRRF

Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted) Construction

aug feb aug feb aug feb aug feb aug feb aug feb aug

Source: FGV/IBREaug feb aug feb aug feb

ICC Bimonthly Average

aug feb aug feb aug feb aug feb aug

Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted) Consumers


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Figure 5 highlights the worsening of the General social security system’s results (RGPs), since 2011. the reform of the social security system stands out as urgent.

Besides, the whole mandatory expenditure regime has been intensively debated in Brazil, including the restructuring of personnel expenditure and the reduction of costs associated with various programs financed by the Federal government. one such program is the student Financing Fund (Fies), a subsided student credit loan program that responds for approximately half of the enrollment in Brazil’s private higher education.

the new administration has also developed a new approach for the Brazilian Development Bank (BnDes), which has played a fundamental role in stimulating the expansion of industry and infrastructure in Brazil. But in recent years, long-term financing in the country has been heavily reliant on public lines, particularly those offered by BnDes. As of January 2017, BnDes had accumulated a passive of over R$ 532 billion with the national treasury - with a mirroring surge in Brazil's national debt.

on september 5th, 2017 the Brazilian congress approved the creation of a new interest rate for BnDes’ loans, the new Market-Based Rate (tLP, in Portuguese), replacing the old tJLP.

to get an idea of the importance of this reform, it should be highlighted that the transfers directly affected by the tJLP represented 44% (or R$ 218.6 billion) of all concessional transfers paid by the federal Government over the last five years. Another positive aspect of the implementation of tLP are the gains obtained by higher predictability of long-term operations in the financial market,

with a positive impact on investments planning.

through a comprehensive reform agenda and specific economic measures for 2017 and 2018, the Brazilian government reaffirms its commitment to create an environment favorable for the consolidation of a new cycle of economic growth, prioritizing:

sustainability of the public deficit and modernization of the state.

Promotion of investments in infrastructure, contributing to the elimination of growth bottlenecks.

increase of capital and labor productivity by improving the business environment, encouraging innovation and professional qualification.

reduction of the long-term interest rate of the economy and the cost of capital and investment.

the reformof the Social

Security System stands outas urgent

FIGURE 5Source: Brazil’sNational Treasury

Total Yearly Expenditure (R$ Billion since June 2017)Central Government’s Primary Result

121,2

-31,9

99,3 105,4

-32,4

73,190,3

-39,7

50,7 54,0

-34,9

19,1 35,5

-45,19,5

17,8

-75,457,6

20,4

-96,876,3

R$18,1 Bi deprecatórios

2013

National Treasury and Central Bank

2016

2011

2012

2014

2015

2017

Social Security Federal Goverment

Source: Brazil’sNational Treasury

Total Yearly Expenditure (R$ Billion since June 2017)Central Government’s Expenditure

jan nov sep jul mar mar

ProjectionProjection

jan nov sep jul decjun apr feb dec oct aug jun apr feb


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2. new FiScAl regime (nFr)due to the risks associated to the growing trends of the gross debt, a crucial measure adopted by the current administration was the creation of a new fiscal regime, approved through constitutional Amendment 95 (ec no. 95) in december 2016. the nfr established a spending cap to limit the growth of primary expenditures until 2036.

It established a period of at least 10 years during which federal government annual primary spending can increase by no more than the previous year’s rate of inflation - as measured by the consumers Price Index (IPcA). Under the nFR, there will be no growth in real terms for the federal budget. In the subsequent 10 years, each president will be able to propose to congress a new indicator to limit increases in primary spending for the following four years.

the spending cap ensures that the government will be able to restore balance to the fiscal accounts and reduce the ratio of debt and expenditures to GDP.

Before ec no. 95 was enacted, the estimates made in the Amendment’s explanatory Memorandum clearly pointed to the necessity of adopting the proposal for reasons of fiscal discipline.

According to Figure 6, without the adoption of a spending cap, primary expenditures could reach 25% of the GDP in 2025. With the spending cap, it is estimated that the total value of

primary expenditures will reach 15.7% of the GDP in the same period.

the nFR marks the beginning of a new model for the government's performance, based on the efficiency of federal public expenditures, greater transparency of decisions on budget allocation, and inter-temporal sustainability in the public debt, contributing to more positive expectations.

While the nFR is in force, the national congress will act more decisively to select priorities for public expenditures, pointing out which specific areas should receive more or fewer resources, without increasing overall spending.

Health and education, however, have a secured mandated funding floor under the nFR. the government is constitutionally mandated to spend a share of total primary revenues in health and education. While this floor will be adjusted by the previous year’s rate of inflation, it will no longer be linked to central government's fiscal revenues, which can oscillate from year to year.

ec no. 95 was also accompanied by the approval of the Delinked Federal Revenues Law (DRU). It granted the executive – until 2023 – the free implementation of 30% of federal revenues, which were previously assigned to specific expenditures by the Federal constitution.

the new fiscal regime aims at reducing primary expenditure as a share of GDP for the first time in recent history, and is expected to lead to lower deficits.

In fact, in the short period since its implementation, the nFR has already reversed the trajectory of the federal government’s public expenditures. the spending cap has confirmed expectations and led to a greater control of primary expenditures. In the long run, the new guidelines for fiscal policies, combined with reduced government debt, will increase the

Brazilian government’s effectiveness in the provision of essential public services – especially health, education and security. the nFR will also increase efficiency in the management of public spending, reverse negative expectations, and establish the basis for a virtuous cycle of sustained growth in Brazil.

the path to the new Fiscal Regime was paved by other important actions, such as the adoption, early in 2016, of a credible primary deficit target, and the extension of the Delinked Federal Revenues Law until 2023.

on top of that, the current administration presented a comprehensive and ambitious agenda to restore short and medium-term confidence in the Brazilian economy, and provide the necessary foundation to increase its growth potential over the medium- and long-term, enabling the country to take full advantage of its economic and social potentials, and bringing Brazil closer to fulfilling its development goals. this included proposals for additional reforms, administrative measures allowing for efficiency gains and modernization of the state and the public policies, and changes to the regulatory and infrastructure legal frameworks. Underlining these initiatives is the view that an effective and sustainable recovery can only be brought about through a series of structural reforms that inject dynamism into the economy, expand productivity, and reduce dependence on state-run stimulus measures.

these actions proved successful to boost confidence in the economy. the first results under the nFR proved the economy was in the right path. not only the central government complied, with good margin, with the primary result target in 2016, registering a deficit of R$ 154 billion against the expected R$ 163 billion, but also the main macroeconomic indicators improved from the second half of 2016 on.

In a short period (starting in December 2016), the NFR has already reversed the negative trajectory of the federal Government’s public expenditure.

Source: Brazil’sNational Treasury

Primary Government Spending (% of GDP)

Trend until 2015 Projection without PEC241 Approval Projection with PEC241 Approval


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Although 2016 ended with a decrease of 3.6% of the GDP, the first quarter of 2017 represented the end of eight consecutive quarters of decline. GDP grew 1% in the quarterly variation with seasonal adjustment. the second quarter brought a modest variation in comparison to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted): +0.2%. still, this last result was driven by an increase of +1.4% in private consumption, in its first positive quarter result since 2014, and brought the carryover (the statistical effect for the rest of the year – that is, the annual GDP change assuming stability in seasonally adjusted terms in the 3rd and 4th quarters) to +0.5%.

Market expectations corroborate the gains, showing a positive, although still modest, growth rate for 2017 with a steady improvement in the next quarters.

the year of 2017 also marked the beginning of the labor market recovery. Between January and september, close to 209,000 formal jobs were created, in contrast to the job loss in the same period of the previous two years. Although the unemployment rate is still high - in August 2017, it reached 12.6% of the economically active population in the country - it is steadily receding after peaking up at 13.7% in March.

Households' total real income and average real income are also on the rise -- reaching +2.7% and +1.9% respectively in August 2017, compared to the same month in 2016. Part of the gain in household purchasing power was due to the sharp drop in inflation, which in september 2017 reached 2.54% in 12 months (as measured by the official consumer Price Index, IPcA). this result is below the tolerance margins defined by the national Monetary council to meet the inflation target for the year. Within 2017, IPcA registered an accumulated decrease of 1.78% in september, the lowest result in 19 years.

the "disinflation process" reflects the monetary policy, which managed to realign inflationary expectations. In line with these results, the central Bank of Brazil started, in october 2016, a cycle of interest rate cuts, promoting the first reduction in four years. In october 2017, the selic target rate was at 7.5%, contributing to the sharp reduction in ex-ante real interest rates (which reached 3.2% per year in september) -- an important indicator of capital costs for investment decisions.

FIGURE 7Source: IBGE

Gross Domestic Product (YoY %)

2005

2011

2001

2003

2007

2009

2013

2014

2015

2016

2004

2010

2000

2002

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2012

04%

01%

03%

01%

06%

03%04%

06%05%

00%

08%

04%

02%03%

01%

-04% -04%

03%

FIGURE 8Source: IBGE and BCB(market expectationsas of Nov. 10, 2017).

2016

2017

2015

2015

2016

2017

2018

2018

2018

2016

2017

2015

2015

2016

2017

2018

-01%-01%

-02%

-04%

-05% -05%-04%

-04%

-02%

-01%

00%01%

01%02%

02% 2,5%

4Q over preceeding period, %Gross Domestic Product

II IVII IV IV II II III IVI IIII III III I I

MARKET EXPECTATIONS

Source: BrazilianCentral Bank-BCB

* Swap DI-Pre of 360 days over expected IPCA inflation in 12 months

apr jul oct jul apr jan oct jul apr jan oct jul apr janjan oct jul apr jan oct jul apr jan oct jul aprapr jan oct jul apr jan oct jul apr jan oct jul oct

Real Interest Rate ex-ante* (% YoY)


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the conditions for consumption recovery are set for the second half of 2017 and 2018 - which will trigger stronger economic growth in the coming months. Household indebtedness has undergone an adjustment process, reverting the steady pace of increase registered until 2014. credit conditions for households, which remained adverse in 2016, are now improving significantly. By the end of the second quarter of 2017, credit concessions grew 5.0% in real terms over the same period of last year, while spreads on loans are dropping, together with rates on loans for individuals. In addition, measures such as the withdrawal of the inactive FGts accounts, which injected R$ 44 billion in the economy, have allowed for the reshaping of the financial capacity of households.

over this background, it is worth noting that the Brazilian economy is now – in contrast to past crises – far more resilient and able to withstand turbulence. the floating exchange rate regime ensures quick adjustments in Brazil's balance of payments, such as trade in goods and services, travels, and transfers of profits and dividends.

the current account deficit has declined consistently, from Us$104 billion in 2014 (4.24% of GDP) to Us$ 12.6 billion in september 2017 (0.6% of GDP), and the trade balance is at its record high. At the same time, direct investment in the country remains steady, at levels that allow for a consistent flow of funding to the current account. Finally, high foreign reserve levels guarantee the sustainability of foreign accounts – Brazil is today a net creditor, with a level of reserves that surpasses its total external debt.

FIGURE 11Source: MDIC

feb13

Imports

feb16

feb11

feb12

feb14

feb15

aug13

aug16

aug11

aug12

aug14

aug15

feb17

may13

may16

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aug17

Trade Balance Exports

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0

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1.000

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1.20064,270

825818

744

575

Trade Balance Accumulated in 1 yearUS$ mm. FOB (x 1.000)

Exports and ImportsDaily average accumulated in 1 year

US$ mm. FOB

FIGURE 10Source: BCB

aug13

Income Commitment with Interest Payments

aug16

aug11

aug12

aug14

aug15

feb14

feb17

feb12

feb13

feb15

feb16

aug17

Free Credit to Households - Delinquency

21

21

22

22

23

23

05

06

06

07

08

0823

21

07

06

Income Commitment with Interest Payments (%) 3-mo. moving average

Free Credit to Households - Delinquency (%)*

3-mo. moving average

FIGURE 12Source:BCB

2007

IV2016

IV2001

IV2004

IV2010

IV2013

IV2006

II2015

II2000

II2003

II2009

II2012

II2008

II2002

II2005

II2011

II2014

II2006

IV2015

IV2000

IV2003

IV2009

IV2012

IV2008

IV2002

IV2005

IV2011

IV2014

IV2017

II2007

II2016

II2001

II2004

II2010

II2013

II0

20

40

60

100

140

80

120

Reserves / Total External Debt (%)

FIGURE 13Source: BCB

01%

-02%

02%

-02%

03%

-03%

03%

-03%

03%

-03%

02%

-03%

03%

-04%

03%

-03%

04%

-01%

04%

-01%

2012

Current Account

2016

2008

2010

2013

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2017

Foreign Direct Investment

% of GDP

Foreign Direct InvestmentCurrent Account


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Financial markets indicators reflect the recognition that the Brazilian economy is reaching a favorable momentum. For instance, 5-year cDs reached, in september 2017, levels comparable to the investment grade period, while the main stock exchange index, Ibovespa, gained around 26% in 12 months. see figure 15 below.

3. tAx reForm the Brazilian tax burden amounts to 36% of the gdP - in line with advanced economies, as the federal budget traditionally subsidizes the relevant part of social security, the entire national health system, and other social expenditures of re-distributive character. Although the Brazilian fiscal situation makes it difficult to reduce taxes in the short term, the federal government is working on measures to simplify compliance through secondary obligations by reducing its cost and lowering the cumulative effect of some of the primary federal taxes.

Another objective of the tax reform is the digitalization of documents and facilitation of compliance with fiscal liabilities, such as changes in ancillary obligations. these measures aim at reducing redundancies and inefficiencies, contributing to reduce compliance costs and to improve the business environment.

decreAse in the cumulAtive nAture of tAxAtion And simPlificAtion of credit use

Among the fiscal measures under consideration is the simplification of two of the largest social contributions levied on the gross revenues of companies: PIs/Pasep and cofins .

the current law of PIs/Pasep is extremely complex, with problems such as limitations to the right to verify claims; cumulative incidence of contributions; competitive asymmetry, and a high amount of special taxation regimes. the goal is to simplify PIs/Pasep calculation, to tax the added value of each economic operation, to promote equality in the treatment of small enterprises and to adjust the different regimes, avoiding distortions.

the biggest change of this proposed reform is to extend credit. everything that a company acquires for production or consumption – including, for example, electricity bills, office supplies – can be discounted from the tribute being paid. In addition to making the calculation of the tribute simpler for

enterprises, the reform should reduce tax litigation due to calculation or interpretation mistakes. the calculation of the contribution will also facilitate compliance with ancillary obligations, because the credits that may be deducted from the amount to be paid will be highlighted in the e-Invoice.

simPlificAtion of AncillAry oBligAtions

Ancillary obligations are positive or negative requirements of taxpayers’ shares for complying with the fiscal legislation. With their simplification, the Brazilian government hopes to create a better business environment for companies, through actions that aim at integrating the Fiscal Administrations on its three levels (federal, state and municipal), by simplifying the tax system and reducing costs associated with the provision of information to the fiscal authorities.

new PhAse of the PuBlic system of digitAl BookkeePing (sPed)

“sped” was established in January 2007 and unifies the delivery and custody of tax information, facilitating the relationship between fiscal and regulatory authorities, companies and society. In addition to tax documents, the system also encompasses bookkeeping for the whole Brazilian taxes. Fiscal administrations in the federal, regional and local governments are committed to rationalize the provision of information and to develop integration functionalities.

172

FIGURE 14Source: Bloomberg

oct06

oct07

oct08

oct09

oct10

oct11

171 (Average Apr. 2008 to Sep. 2015)

oct12

oct13

oct14

apr07

apr08

apr09

apr10

apr11

apr12

apr13

apr14

apr15

oct15

apr16

oct16

apr17

oct17

Investment Grade Period S&P e Fitch

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

CDS 5 years (bps)

FIGURE 15Source: Bloomberg

feb16

feb17

mar15

oct15

jun16

oct16

apr16

apr17

jul15

dec15

aug16

dec16

jun17

mar16

mar17

may15

apr15

aug15

jun15

nov15

jul16

nov16

may16

may17

sep15

jan16

sep16

jan17

jul17

aug17

sep17

oct17

35

40

45

50

60

55

65

70

Bovespa Index(x 1.000)


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the business environment in Brazil still has to cope with more than 30 regional declaration forms, with a high level of redundancy regarding the information provided to the Public system of Digital Bookkeeping (sped). sped intends to replace the existing declarations and forms of the 27 states with a single declaration and, thus, avoid duplication and redundancy in their filling.

this will reduce the amount of information required and the number of hours spent filling forms, bringing the Brazilian standards to the same level as that of countries with a dynamic economic environment.

electronic invoicing for services Providers

currently, around 5,570 regulatory laws and

invoices for different types of services coexist, one for each municipality.

the project of electronic Invoice for services (nFs-e) was adopted to establish a national standard for electronic invoice emission – including on mobile devices – in accordance with the protocol of cooperation signed within the framework of the national conference of Fiscal Administrators (enat). Its goal is to simplify procedures, reduce compliance costs and thereby increase the competitiveness of Brazilian companies through the rationalization of ancillary obligations.

the project benefits taxpayers and fiscal administrations by standardizing and improving the quality of information, rationalizing government costs and generating greater efficiency in fiscal activity.

4. Single Foreign trAde window – centrAlized PAyment

the single foreign trade window is a platform that rationalizes the work of agencies involved in foreign trade, establishing a single point of entry for the input of documents or data required to import, export or transport goods. it simplifies and integrates customs clearance.

Once it has been implemented, Brazil shall have what has been internationally dubbed a single window for foreign trade, with a predicted reduction of 38% on export time and 41% on

the time to import goods. The full deployment is expected for December 2018.

5. BrAziliAn SociAl Security: AcceSS And SuStAinABility

Brazilian social security is an insurance system that replaces the income of taxpayers when they lose the ability to work. social security benefits include pensions, disability compensation, accident compensation, maternity allowance and family allowance. two other benefits support the families of insured persons: incarceration compensation and death insurance.

the Brazilian Pension system consists of three different types of insurance regimes: the General social security Regime (RGPs) and the special social security Regime (RPPs), both compulsory; and the supplementary social security Regime (RsPs), which is optional.

the special Regimes are implemented by the Federal Government, the states and the municipalities. supplementary Regime is implemented by open institutions with free access, and closed institutions (pension funds) restricted to private employees, public servants and members of professional associations.

each regime adopts its own methodology to ensure the payment of benefits. In the case of the General Regime (RGPs), a funding system called "simple sharing" is adopted, in which active workers finance the benefits of those who are outside the labor force. that is, each worker contributes to a single fund that is used to benefit those who are unable to work, either temporarily or permanently. this fund depends strongly on the size of the Brazilian workforce to ensure the payment of benefits.

In the case of the supplementary Regime (RsPs), which also adopts the simple sharing, the Federal constitution requires financial and actuarial balance, and authorizes federal agencies, by law, to constitute integrated funds through contributions, property, rights and assets,

ensuring resources.

the Brazilian Government is committed to reforming the social security system to ensure the future funding and the continuation of the payment of benefits. to this end, it sent to congress, in December 2016, a constitutional Amendment Proposal (Pec 287/2016). Because it is a constitutional amendment, the proposal

requires the approval by both Houses, on two rounds of votes, with a qualified majority of 3/5, to be enacted and enter into force. the goal of the social security reform is to ensure its fiscal sustainability, as Brazil has been facing a profound and rapid change in its demographic profile, with increased survival expectancy of the population, and reduction of the number of active workers.

the goalof the Social

Security reformis to ensure

its fiscal sustainability


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In fact, from 2017 to 2060, the group of people over 65 years old, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and statistics (IBGe), will grow 232.5%, from 17.5 million to 58.4 million individuals. By 2060, the participation of elders (65+) in the total population will grow from 8% to about 27%, i.e., from one elder for every twelve people, to one elder for every four people. the fertility rate fell between 1980 and 2015, decreased from 4.1 to 1.7 children per woman, implying lower population growth in the future. With this, the social security system will have a smaller number of contributors and a greater amount of beneficiaries.

deficit

social security expenditure is the main factor pulling the deficit in the Federal Government’s accounts. social security expenditure in Brazil is currently equivalent to 13.1% of the GDP -- comprising the spending of the General and the supplementary Regimes of states, municipalities and the Federal Government.

Without a reform, Brazil would have to increase its tax burden by about 10% of GDP by 2060 to finance the current growth rate of expenditures with social security only. Increasing taxes would overburden companies and consumers, strongly jeopardizing economic growth. By approving the social security system reform, expenditure with the payment of social security benefits will grow slower, resulting in lower pressure on public expenditures as a whole, reversing its accelerated growth.

the sociAl security reform ProPosAl

the social security Reform guidelines are not aimed to affect the benefits already granted nor the insured persons who, even if not currently making use of their social security benefits, have already met the requirements based on the current and previous standards.

the first major objective of the reform is to establish a minimum age for the voluntary retirement of men and women. today, the average retirement age in Brazil is only 59.4 years old. the target for the new general rule for urban RGPs workers and public servants retirement is 65 years old for men, and 62 years old for women. elders, low income disabled persons, and smallholders will not be affected by the reform. teachers and law enforcers will have differentiated rules, including the reduction of age retirement and/or shorter contribution period.

the proposal guidelines ensure that no benefit that replaces the contribution salary or the labor income of the insured persons has a monthly value that is less than the national minimum wage.

A proportion of the average of contributed salaries, collected for at least 25 years, will be established for the retirement income. the longer the time of contribution, the higher the income.

the minimum age for retirement will follow a standard established by law: the age for retirement will increase by one year, for both sexes, whenever the Brazilian population’s survival expectancy (currently 65 years old) increases as much, compared to the average on the year of the constitutional Amendment.

the social security reform is also aimed at the discontinuation of privileges. After the reform, the General Regime must mandatorily insure representatives elected in the legislative and executive branches and their retirement will follow the same rules as other employees.

the pension rules for death benefits are also to undergo adjustments. the accumulation of pension and retirement can only occur up to a limit above the minimum wage. Above that threshold, the insured person will opt for the benefit of higher value. the total benefit cannot be less than the minimum wage and, above this value, it will be defined by a family quota of 50%, plus 10% per dependent persons, up to the limit of 100%.

these are the broad terms of the reform’s guidelines. the approval of the social security reform will grant the Federal Government a substantial amount of savings in terms of mandatory expenditure. this is crucial for the structural adjustment of public accounts and for the control of the intense growth of social and welfare security and, above all, it will ensure the sustainability of social security protection to Brazilian workers.

FIGURE 16Source: IBGE.Compiled by: SPREV/MF

Very accelerated process of population agingPopulation Pyramids in Brazil

Men

0%4%8%12% 12%8%4% 0%4%8%12% 12%8%4% 0%4%8%12% 12%8%4%

Women

2000 2030 2060

0-4

10-14

20-14

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

0-4

10-14

20-14

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

+90 +90

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

FIGURE 17Source: BrazilianInstitute of Geography

Participation of elders (65+) in the total population

4,1

2,8

2,4

1,91,6 1,5 1,5

ELDERS 2017 2060

Total (in millions) 17.6 58.4

Population 8% 27%

12 41 elder for every x people

From 2017 to 2060, the participation of elders (65+) in the total population will grow from one elder for every twelve people, to one elder for every four people.


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6. lABor reForm Brazilian labor laws were modernized in 2017. law 13467, enacted on July 13, represents a major step in introducing provisions that are more consistent with current practices in the labor market. the labor reform will bring more flexibility to labor relations, strengthening collective agreements, reducing costs, and favoring the offer of new jobs.

one of its most important innovations is the reinforcement of collective labor agreements, which will prevail over the law with regard to working hours, career plans and productivity remuneration. collective agreements cannot be reversed by a judicial decision anymore, which will increase legal certainty. As the previous regulation for labor market was quite rigid, any agreement between employers and employees could be disputed, so there was a significant instability in labor relations. Unions sometimes encouraged workers to sue their employers rather than promoting negotiation.

other changes ensure a higher level of flexibility for the labor market. For instance, it is now possible to fraction vacation periods and negotiate over working days, overtime and banked hours. In addition, union contributions are no longer compulsory. these items followed a very rigid regulation, which made quite difficult for employers and employees to negotiate more suitable conditions according to their specific needs.

With regard to outsourcing, Law 1,3429, ratified on March 31, 2017, is also important. It allows employers to hire employees of another company to carry out core activities, while previous regulation allowed employers to hire other companies only for complimentary duties, prohibiting outsourcing of core activities. It was approved with the purpose of filling a legal gap and providing legal certainty to companies contracting outsourced services, as this modality of contracting has become vital to bring more

agility, competitiveness and efficiency, thus ensuring better conditions for workers. It should be noted that this provision reaches at least 12.7 million outsourced workers and will reach a large portion of the labor force, formerly working in the informal economy. Informal workers will be able to enter the formal labor force, resulting in more productivity and competitiveness for companies and the whole economy.

In addition, hourly contracts were formalized, allowing the worker to sign with more than one service provider, receive proportional payments to the employment security Fund (known as FGts), enjoy proportional vacation time, and receive the thirteenth salary. this provision will simplify the payment of social security contributions and taxes, consolidating social rights for workers and providing easier conditions for companies. this innovation helps employers to overcome the complex bureaucracy related to social contributions and taxes under the old legislation, which had remained almost unchanged for the last 70 years.

Another innovation introduced by the new law is the part-time work contract. I allows working hours up to 30 hours per week, without the possibility of overtime, or working hours of up to 26 hours per week, allowing up to 6 extra hours. overtime will be paid with an increase of 50%, paid vacation will be the same as in full-time regime, and overtime compensations will be possible until the immediately following week.

7. regulAtory FrAmework For inveStment in inFrAStructure

Besides achieving fiscal balance, the new Brazilian economic policies aim to establish economic growth in a gradual and sustainable manner, by increasing the investment rate, capital intensity per worker, and productivity. to this end, the government has expanded and improved the concessions program and thus established an additional boost to growth. the Program for investment Partnership (PPi) addresses viable private investments in highways, railways, ports, airports and other projects considered as priorities by the federal government. the PPi also picks public assets for sale, in order to reduce public expenditure on current spending and to ensure a more efficient asset management.

the PPI provides partnership contracts with more transparency and legal certainty, and expedites the administrative process for granting concessions, in an effort to increase cooperation with the private sector. Its overall objectives include expanding investment, creating jobs, stimulating technological and industrial development, improving the quality of public infrastructure, and promoting competition and legal certainty in establishing partnerships with the private sector.

the expected investments of the Program as a whole amount to around R$ 137.5 billion (or Us$ 43.1 billion).

By the end of october 2017, 15 months after its launch, 56 of a total of 145 PPI projects were already auctioned or renewed, raising around R$ 30.0 billion (or Us$ 9.4 billion) in signature bonuses. the projects concluded and their respective auction or renewal dates are listed below:

Oil and Gas

4th Marginal Fields Round May 11th, 2017

14th exploratory Blocks Bidding Round sept. 27th, 2017

2nd and 3rd Pre-salt Production sharing Bidding Rounds oct. 27th, 2017

EnErGy

Privatization of ceLG-D Feb. 14th, 2017

small Hydropower Plant–Pery/sc July 07th, 2017

concession of 31 transmission Lots Aug. 11th, 2017

concession of Hydropower Plants: são simão, Jaguara, Miranda and Volta Grande sept. 29th, 2017

airpOrts

Florianópolis, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, and salvador July 27th, 2017


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the set of 89 still ongoing projects comprise a wide range of projects that will significantly improve the country’s infrastructure. these include logistics projects that will promote interconnection between important poles and cargo flow, and upgrade transportation services; power generation and distribution projects to amplify energy efficiency; and projects on key sectors that are strong economic drivers, such as oil and gas.

Among the many ongoing projects of interest that stand out is the privatization of eletrobras and of six subsidiaries, aiming to ensure the expansion of Brazil's power supply and improve the distribution services in a sustainable manner at the lowest prices possible. eletrobras is the largest holding in the electric sector in Latin America, the 16th largest energy company in the world, and one of the world's 5 largest hydroelectric generators in installed capacity. It is traded on the são Paulo, Madrid and new York stock exchanges, and holds 30.7% of Brazil’s generation (47GW installed in 239 plants) and 70.3 thousand kilometers of transmission lines (51.7% of the total), with 4.3 million customers. In the distribution segment, eletrobras currently serves six concession areas in the north and northeast regions. the privatization of eletrobras will occur through the issuance of new shares, without new subscription from the public sector, and the privatization of distribution companies will occur through auction of stock control of the companies with a new concession agreement.

Decree no. 8,874, dated october 11, 2016, established measures that foster the issuance of incentive debentures to finance PPI projects. It assigns priority for all investment projects in infrastructure or in research, development and innovation, related to intensive economic production that are subject of a concession, permit, lease, authorization or Public/Private Partnership (PPP), and that integrate the PPI. Accordingly, they do not need approval from the responsible ministry for issuing an incentive debenture, which is exempt from personal income tax and reduces tax for corporate entities. In addition, it also authorized the costs incurred with the granting of the infrastructure projects to become part of the investment plan of the prioritized project, and, therefore, can be considered for issuance of debentures.

In 2016, Provisional Measure (MP n° 752), dealing with contract renegotiation of infrastructure concessions, was enacted and later converted into Law 13,488 in June 2017. It aims to provide legal certainty to new investments in existing concessions, as the granting authority has been questioned as to the legitimacy of contractual extension of public concessions. the new provision allows the extension of the contract only once, for a period lesser than or equal to the original term, and the regulatory agency must justify the renegotiation advantages over a new bidding. In addition, it allows the early extension of concessions of highways and railroads by new investments not originally agreed to, provided that the concessionaire is fulfilling contract obligations.

MP 800/2017 on road infrastructure extended from five to 14 years the term for concessionaires to carry out the works included in concession contracts. the measure avoids unnecessary investment concentration in the initial period of the contract.

pOrt tErminals

terminal of salvador-tecon nov. 16th, 2016

terminal of Paranaguá-Fospar nov. 16th, 2016

terminals stM 04 e 05 – santarém Mar. 23th, 2017

terminal of santa catarina–tesc July 27th, 2017

Wheat terminal – RJ Aug. 22th, 2017

chemical terminal of Aratu - tequimar - Itaqui/MA Aug. 22th, 2017

airpOrts

13 Airport concessions

4 shareholding selling (Guarulhos, Galeão, confins and Brasília)

pOrts

25 Port terminals

mininG

Mining Rights of cPRMHiGHways

south Integration Highway – (BR-101/290/386/448/Rs)

Highway BR – 364/365/MG/Go – Uberlândia to Jataí

Highway BR-101/sc – Paulo Lopes to são João do sul

Highway BR-040/MG/RJ – Juiz de Fora to Rio de Janeiro

Highway BR-116/RJ – Além Paraíba to BR-040

Highway BR-116/RJ/sP – Rio De Janeiro to são Paulo

BR 153/Go/to – From Aliança do tocantins to Anápolis

Highway BR 364/Ro – Porto Velho to comodoro

EnErGy

Amazonas energy s.A

Boa Vista electricity Distribution

electricity Distribution – eletroacre

energy company of Piauí – cepisa

electricity Distribution company of Alagoas – ceal

Power station of Rondônia s.A. – ceron

Privatization – eletrobras

Power transmission Lines (11 Lots)

small Hydropower Plant – Agro trafo

railrOads

eF 151 – sP/MG/GP/to – north-south Railroad

eF 170 – Mt/PA – Ferrogrão Railroad

eF 334/Ba – Fiol Railroad

early extension of 5 Railroad concessions

Oil and Gas

exploratory Blocks (Round 15)

Marginal Accumulations (5th Round)

Pre-salt (4th Round)

OtHEr

Loteria Instantânea – Lotex (Lottery)

casemg

Privatization – Brazilian national Mint

Privatization – ceasaminas

PPP For communications network Management – comaer

Eletrobras is the largest holding in the electric sector in Latin America, the 16th largest energy company in the world and one of the world's 5 largest hydroelectric generators in installed capacity.


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Law 13,499/2017 allowed the payment schedule of signature bonuses on airport partnership, contracts to be made according to the project flow, and not in equal installments as it was the case previously, allowing a higher degree of flexibility to the payments and avoiding unnecessary financial strain in periods of heavy investments and low revenues.

In July 2017, the Government enacted MP 786, which authorizes the Federal government to participate in a fund devoted to structuring and developing concession projects and Public Private Partnerships of any federated level (federal government, states, federal district and municipalities). this measure allowed the federal government to overcome the lack of technical capacity to develop and structure projects, especially at the local level. Under the new rule, the financial institution managing the fund should make public calls, organize the demand of the federated institutions and provide studies that attend several projects simultaneously. the federated agencies, in turn, may contract the financial institution directly, by means of a bidding waiver. the fund will mainly work in the sectors of solid waste treatment, sanitation, street lighting, and urban mobility, as well as in smaller projects such as public parkings, bus stations, markets, among others.

Additionally, long-term financing in the country will no longer be heavily reliant on low cost public lines, particularly those offered by BnDes and backed by loans from the national treasury. on september 5, 2017 the Brazilian congress approved the creation of a new interest rate for BnDes’ loans, the Long term Rate (taxa de Longo

Prazo – tLP in Portuguese), a new market-based rate, replacing the old tJLP.

starting in 2018, the tLP will be set on a monthly basis by the central Bank and will vary according to the consumer price index and the yield of the 5-year ntn-B bond (inflation linked treasury bonds). this measure will make the rates charged on BnDes’ loans to be closer to market interest rates. In addition, the new rate will allow for higher predictability of long-term financial operations, positively affecting investment planning, providing

a more efficient resource allocation, fostering long-term credit concessions, increasing the monetary policy effectiveness, and reducing public expenditure with interest equalization policies.

other efforts have to do with improving the governance of state-owned companies, the best example of which is the case of Petrobras. these include: i) mandatory fulfillment of technical requirements to become a director; and ii) increased flexibility in national content regulations. In addition to

greater transparency and efficiency for state-owned companies, these efforts will make production chains of key economic sectors more dynamic, with positive impacts on the business environment and the Brazilian economy.

the new Mining code, in effect by MP 790/2017, creates incentives for investments in the research and mining stage (with definition of licensing deadlines) and mining efficiency. Mining royalties, for instance, will be simplified and updated. the rate for iron one will vary according

to international prices up to a ceiling of 4%, while royalties for minerals used in civil construction will be reduced from 2% to 1.5%. the Government expects to increase the mining share in the Brazilian economy, attracting new investments.

the new pre-salt regulatory framework in effect since the end of 2016 ends the compulsory participation of Petrobras in at least 30% of any block contracted under the production-sharing regime, independently of the company's resource availability. the change gives the company more autonomy and planning capacity, as it can now decide whether to operate pre-salt exploration blocks. It is expected that the new framework will also attract new investors.

In April 2017, local content requirements on oil and gas exploration were eased. Previously, the requirements could reach up to 60% to 70% during exploration and development stages, with

specific percentages defined for several items and sub items. the new model requires 50% during exploration and development on land; if on water, the requirement is 18% during exploration and 25% on oil well construction, 40% on collection and drainage, and 25% on oil platforms, during the development stage.

In november 2017, the Government announced a list of 7.439 stalled works that will be resumed and completed throughout the country. Under the name “Agora, Avançar”, the program covers areas ranging from education (including day cares) to housing and infrastructure (with the resumption of works at regional airports, highways, railways and ports), with expected public investments of R$ 131 billion until 2018. the program also seeks to improve public spending quality and fiscal responsibility, as the unfinished projects generate burdens on the population and public costs.

these effortswill make

production chains of key economic

sectors more dynamic, with

positive impacts on the business

environment and the Brazilian

economy

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