the new demographics of higher education will doyle national press foundation business of higher...
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The New Demographics of Higher Education
Will DoyleNational Press Foundation
Business of Higher Education Seminar10/30/06
Projections of Population Aged 18-24, 2006-2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050White Non-Hispanics Only
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050African-Americans Only
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050Asians Only
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050Hispanics Only
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050All Racial/Ethnic Groups
Projections of Percent of Population Aged 18-24 by State
States with 10% or more increase in 18-24 Year Old Population, 2005-2030
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Projected Dependency Ratio, 2000-2100Under 15 and Over 65
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1990 1995 1998 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Dep
ende
ncy
Rat
io
Low Immigration
Middle Immigration
High Immigration
Actual Projected
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Projected Dependency Ratio, 2000-2100 65 and over only
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1995 1998 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Dependency Ratio (65+)
Low Immigration
Middle Immigration
High Immigration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates
Population Pyramid, 2000
Population Pyramid, 2025
Population Pyramid, 2050
Percent of Adult Population With Advanced Tertiary Degrees
16
29
26
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Norway
United States
Canada
Korea
JapanNo data for 1997
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators (1996-2003)
Percent of Population aged 25-34 With an Advanced Tertiary Degree
37
19
30
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Norway
United States
Korea
Canada
Japan
No data for 1997
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators (1996-2003)
Growth in Population With a Bachelor’s Degree
95
40
1513
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Norway
Canada
United States
Korea
Japan
No data for 1997
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators (1996-2003)
Output Per Hour, All Businesses
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Major Sector Productivity and Costs
Total Revenues per Bachelor’s , 1959-2001
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
1960
-61
1962
-63
1964
-65
1966
-67
1968
-69
1970
-71
1972
-73
1974
-75
1976
-77
1978
-79
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99\
4\
2000
-01
1960: 92,169
1970: 127,4131980:146,565
1990: 180,277
1999 232,076:
Source: NCES, Digest of Education Statistics, 2005