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THE NEW FACE OF AGRICULTURE
4Y C A P P E D P E R FO R M A N C E N OT E
The 4-year Capped Performance Note offers exposure to a selection
of agricultural commodities: these commodities are used for food but
also, increasingly, in the production of bio-fuels. The Note offers:
Exposure to wheat, corn, soybean, soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed
Full participation in the positive performance of each commodity, up to
a preset cap level
100% capital protection at maturity
MORGAN STANLEY – YOUR PARTNER IN COMMODITIES
Morgan Stanley is a leading player in Commodities. Our activities range
from trading and risk management solutions to active participation in the
physical commodity markets. This in-depth involvement allows us to offer
exposure to the broadest range of commodities, including crops such as
palm oil where investment opportunities are currently limited.
As governments look to diversify their energy supplies and cut
emissions, bio-fuels are moving into the mainstream. At the same
time, the world population is growing, demanding more energy
and more food. Current concerns over food infl ation are partly a
refl ection of these dual pressures on agricultural commodities.
THE CASE FOR BIO-FUEL
“The use of vegetable oils for engine fuels may seem insignifi cant
today. But such oils may become in the course of time as
important as the petroleum and coal tar products of the present
time” - Rudolf Diesel, 1912
Although the use of bio-fuels is not new, global production has
tripled between 2000 and 20071, driving increased demand for
the crops used to make them and changing the landscape of
global agriculture. What is driving this agricultural revolution?
Bio-fuels are considered “renewable”, unlike fossil fuels,
which take millions of years to form.
Bio-fuels are seen as less harmful to the environment:
compared to fossil fuels, bio-fuels result in lower emissions of
carbon dioxide,and many other pollutants. Bio-fuels are also
biodegradable and non-toxic. However, the overall impact of
bio-fuels on the environment may not yet be fully understood.
Additional considerations include the energy required to
produce the fuel and the impact of bio-fuels on biodiversity
and land use (eg deforestation).
Government policy is a key driver of demand. For example,
the EU is targeting a combined market share of 5.75% for
bio-fuels in transportation by 20102, as part of its strategy to
reduce emissions Similarly, the U.S recently passed the Energy
Independence and Security Act 2007, which sets mandatory
targets for bio-fuel usage to be met by 2022. Developing
alternative energy sources, also allows governments to
diversify their energy supply, reducing dependency on foreign
oil supplies.
WHAT ARE BIO-FUELS?
Bio-fuels are combustible gas, liquid or solid fuels derived from
biological matter (biomass). The automotive, mining and
marine industries are the main potential end users. Some
common types of bio-fuel include the following:
Bio-ethanol: made primarily from starch found in corn, wheat
and sugar cane. The US and Brazil account for the majority of
global ethanol production and usage. Petrol containing up to 10%
ethanol can usually be used in ordinary petrol engines. Higher
concentrations of ethanol usually require engine modifi cations.
Bio-diesel: made from vegetable oil (e.g. soybean oil,
rapeseed oil, palm oil), animal fat or recycled cooking grease.
Bio-diesel can be blended with petroleum diesel in ratios of
2% (B2), 5% (B5), or most typically 20% (B20). It can also be
used in pure form a (B100). Blended versions can generally
be used in traditional diesel vehicles without any modifi cations.
Europe represents an important market: total EU-27 bio-diesel
production for 2006 was over 4.8 million metric tonnes, an
increase of 54% from the 2005 fi gures3.
Bio-butanol from similar feedstocks to those used for bio-
ethanol, as well as other agricultural by-products such as
straw and corn stalks. The US is the biggest market in terms
of consumption and production. Bio-butanol can be blended
into standard grade petrol, petrol-ethanol blends or diesel. It
is compatible with existing vehicle technology and has the
potential to be incorporated into the existing fuel supply
infrastructure. However, bio-butanol production is currently
more expensive than ethanol so has not been commercialised
on a large scale.
feeling the squeeze AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES ARE UNDER PRESSURE, AS DEMAND FOR FOOD COMPETES WITH THE INCREASING USE OF BIO-FUELS
1 Source: Energy Information Administration, 20072 Source: European Commission, Jan 20083 Source: The European Biodiesel Board, 2007
Source: Morgan Stanley / Bloomberg as at 20 February 2008. Prices shown are for near-month futures contracts. Past performance is no guide to future performance.4 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 20075 Source: US Department of Agriculture, February 20086 Source: US Department of Agriculture, 2007
WHEAT
Soybeans are a major global crop with some diverse uses – from an alternative protein source to use by Henry Ford to make car panels. In addition, soybeans can be used in the production of bio-diesel: one bushel
of soybeans makes around one and a half gallons of bio-diesel. The U.S. is the
major producer of soybeans, although Brazil and Argentina also account for a
signifi cant proportion of global supply. China has overtaken the European Union
to become the main importer of soybeans, accounting for 42% of global imports
in 2006/74.
Wheat is an important food source for both humans and livestock. It is also used, along with sugar, to produce bio-ethanol. Although excessive
rainfall can damage wheat, it is one of the more resilient agricultural
commodities. Since different varieties are planted in different climatic regions,
production shortfalls in some regions can often be offset by supply from others.
The main wheat producers are the European Union, China and India, followed
by the U.S. These regions are also the main consumers.
Corn is one of the most widely cultivated crops in the world.Traditionally an important food source for both people and livestock, its uses
are becoming more diverse. As well as for the production of ethanol, corn is
increasingly used to produce plastics and fabrics as part of a trend to fi nd
alternative, “greener” ways of living. The plant is vulnerable to cold and heavily
dependent on soil moisture. Drought or frost can completely destroy harvests,
and even the expectation of bad weather can impact prices.
Palm oil has been used as a versatile vegetable oil in food preparation for over 5000 years. Today, it is primarily used globally as
cooking oil and, increasingly as a source for bio-diesel fuel. Other uses include
in the making of soap manufacturing. Palm oil is high in saturated fatty acids
and tends to be of a reddish colour due to its high content of beta-carotene.
China is the largest consumer of palm oil in the world. The chief producers and
exporters are Malaysia and Indonesia holding 87% of the world’s palm oil supply 5.
Rapeseed is now consumed by humans in many different forms,
including dietary supplements, margarine, and as cooking oil – principally owing
to its health attributes (low acid, low glucosinalate and low saturated fat). But
rapeseed is also the preferred oil stock for biodiesel production in Europe.
Worldwide production of rapeseed has grown by over 50% over the past 10
years to reach 47 million tonnes in 20066. Leading producers of rapeseed
include China, Canada, the EU and India. These are also the main consumers.
CORN
SOYBEAN
PALM OIL
RAPESEED
JAN08
WHEAT
US
CE
NTS
JAN03
JAN04
JAN05
JAN06
JAN07
1,200
800
400
0
JAN08
CORN
US
CE
NTS
JAN03
JAN04
JAN05
JAN06
JAN07
600
400
200
0
SOYBEANSOYBEAN OIL
US
CE
NTS
JAN08
JAN03
JAN04
JAN05
JAN06
JAN07
1,600
1,200
800
400
0
JAN08
PALM OIL
MYR
JAN03
JAN04
JAN05
JAN06
JAN07
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
JAN08
RAPESEED
EU
R
JAN03
JAN04
JAN05
JAN06
JAN07
500
400
300
200
100
0
80
60
40
20
0 US
D
The Capped Performance Note is a 4-year euro-denominated Note
offering exposure to a selection of agricultural commodities currently
used in the production of bio-fuels: wheat, corn, soybean, soybean oil, palm oil
and rapeseed. The Note offers 100% capital protection at maturity.
HOW IS THE RETURN CALCULATED?7
At maturity, investors receive 100% of the principal, plus a return based on the
performance of the basket of commodities over the 4-year investment term. The
return is the average performance of the six commodities in the basket, except
that the performance of each individual commodity is capped. This cap will be
fi xed on the 28 March 2008 and is indicatively set between 75% and 95%.
The table shows example redemption amounts in a range of scenarios,
assuming an initial investment of EUR 1,000 and a performance cap of 85%
for each commodity. Where the performance of an individual commodity is
85% or more (the shaded squares), a fi xed 85% is used in the calculation
of the fi nal redemption amount.
The minimum redemption is 100% of the initial investment. The maximum
redemption is 185% (if the performance of each commodity is 85% or
greater).
Basket Component Performance
Scenario: 1 2 3 4 5
Wheat 120% 25% 10% 5% -5%
Corn 95% 100% 50% 10% -10%
Soybean 130% 70% 95% 0% -20%
Soybean Oil 86% 60% -15% -5% -50%
Palm Oil 88% 80% 20% -10% -20%
Rapeseed 100% 40% 30% -10% -40%
Final Redemption Amount at Maturity (EUR) 1,850 1,600 1,300 1,000 1,000
For example:
In scenario 3, all the commodities except soybeans have performance less
than 85%. In the calculation, soybeans contributes a fi xed 85% and the other
components their actual performance. The return is the average of (10% +
50% + 85% - 15% + 20% + 30%) = 30%, and the fi nal redemption amount
is EUR 1,300.
4 year capped performance note
INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS:
Returns could be zero, if the performance of
the basket is fl at or negative.
The maximum return is limited by caps on the
performance of each of the individual commodities.
Commodities can be volatile. Sudden price
movements in any of the underlying commodities
could signifi cantly impact the return of the Notes.
Results achieved in the past are no guarantee of
future results.
Commodity markets are subject to temporary
disruptions due to factors including the lack of
liquidity in the market, the participation of speculators
and government regulation and intervention. These
circumstances could impact the return of the
Notes.
Capital protection is provided at maturity only.
If the Notes are sold prior to the maturity date, or
if the Issuer redeems the Notes early for reasons
stated in the prospectus, the fi nal proceeds may
be less than the full principal invested. Investors
may also be subject to transaction costs including
a bid-offer spread.
There may be no relationship between the
prices of the agricultural commodities in the basket
and the price of bio-fuels or the environmental, policy
and energy usage trends described in the brochure.
7 All examples are based on gross returns and do not take into account any costs or taxes. Examples are provided
for illustrative purposes only. Morgan Stanley makes no representation or warranty in respect of the future
performance of the Note.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Any investment decision should be made only based on the terms of the base prospectus and fi nal terms for the product (if any) including the risk factors (the “Offering Documents”), which is the only binding document and the terms of which will supersede the terms herein. Copies of the Offering Documents dated 7 April 2008 will be available at Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA.
This information is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell the product and has been prepared solely for information purposes. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All prices or values are indicative only, and may vary signifi cantly from executable prices or from prices obtained from elsewhere. The product may only be offered or sold in jurisdictions in which such offer or distribution is permitted. In particular, the product may not be offered, sold, transferred or delivered directly or indirectly in the United States to, or for the account or benefi t of, any U.S. Person (as defi ned in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act 1933). This document may only be distributed and published in jurisdictions in which such distribution and publication is permitted. In the UK it is directed only to those persons who are eligible counterparties or professional clients and must not be acted on or relied upon by retail clients (each as defi ned in the UK Financial Services Authority’s rules). No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. Morgan Stanley does not give investment, tax, accounting, legal, regulatory or other advice; prospective investors should consult their own professional advisors. Morgan Stanley and its affi liates may make discretionary determinations or be engaged in transactions, including hedging activities and proprietary trading involving underlying instruments, that could affect the value of the Note. In such cases, the interests of Morgan Stanley may confl ict with the interests of investors and Morgan Stanley will not be required to consider the interests of investors.
This information is a marketing communication; it is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research recommendation. Morgan Stanley does not intend the information contained herein to have legal effect or to give rise to any form of legal relationship with any person whatsoever. Any reference (whether express or implied) to the contrary in this document is an error and is superseded by the terms of this disclaimer.
The Notes are not collective investment schemes as per the Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes (“CISA”) and are not subject to approval or supervision by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission. A simplifi ed prospectus pursuant to article 5 CISA will be available on 3 March 2008 and can be obtained free of charge from Bank Morgan Stanley AG, Bahnhofstrasse 92, CH-8023 Zurich, Switzerland and on the website www.morganstanleyiq.ch. Investors bear the issuer risk. The value of the Notes is dependent not only on the development of the underlying(s), but also on the creditworthiness of the issuer, which may vary over the term of the Notes. This information is not an issue prospectus as that term is understood pursuant to article 652a or article 1156 of the Swiss Federal Code of Obligations and, according to Article 5 paragraph 4 CISA, the prospectus requirement is therefore not applicable.
This document constitutes an advertisement within the meaning of article 15 of Directive 2003/17/EC and article 17 of the Luxembourg Act dated 10 July 2005 (that applies to prospectuses for securities) implementing Directive 2003/17/EC into Luxembourg law.
© 2008 Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved.
Product Information
Issuer: Morgan Stanley
Issuer Rating: Aa3 (Moody’s) /AA- (Standard & Poor’s)
Issue Price: 100%
Issue Date: 7 April 2008
Maturity Date: 7 April 2012
Subscription Period: 3 March 2008 up to and including 27 March 2008. The issuer has the right to close the subscription period early.
Denominations: EUR 1,000
Underlying: An equally weighted basket of agricultural commodities: Corn, Soybean, Soybean Oil, Wheat, Rapeseed (all referencing
the 1st near-month futures contracts) and Palm Oil (referencing the 3rd near-month futures contract).
Minimum Redemption: 100% at maturity
Liquidity: Daily. Under normal market conditions, Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc will use reasonable efforts to quote bid and
offer prices but will not be legally obliged to do so.
ISIN: XS0351189690
Valor: 3845003
MORGAN STANLEY & CO INTERNATIONAL PLC25 CABOT SQUARECANARY WHARFLONDON E14 4QA
TEL: +44 (0) 20 7677 8880FAX: +44 (0) 20 7056 0404EMAIL: [email protected]
WWW.MORGANSTANLEYIQ.COM
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