the new normal in residential appraisalfuturecasting so what is missing? take advantage: new...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE NEW NORMAL IN RESIDENTIAL APPRAISAL:LOOKING AT THE FUTURE
Mark R. Linné MAI, SRA, AI-GRS, CAE, CDEI, FRICS
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WELCOME TO DENVER!
Me
You
Us
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AN INTRODUCTION TO THE FUTURE
What is a Hybrid Anyway?
Historically
Anything that veers from the “normal”
“Potentially” anything that melds the best of two different processes
In 2005
AVMs
Everyone wants an appraiser’s signature
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IN 2019?
Its all about
Bifurcation
Trifurcation
Melding an inspector/broker/Uber driver with…..
An appraiser
That can be troubling to some
But it represents the market’s attempt to overcome a perceived problem
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ITS ALL ABOUT..
Adaptation and Adoption
Dealing with Threats to Our Profession
The Rise of AVMs: 1995-2005
We saw a threat and we resisted
(and it was a real threat)
AVM Providers wanted appraisers to sign hybrid reports to somehow make them more “credible”
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WHERE ARE WE NOW?
Overcoming the resistance to AVMs and their underlying technology
AVMs have retreated to their “space”
Appraisers are less paranoid about the technology and the underlying analytics
We have achieved a kind of detente
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THE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION IS HERE
Breathtaking in scope and speed
Data
Devices
Interconnectivity
Like a turbine-its only going to get faster
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PUTTING THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE
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OUR PRIMARY ANALYTICAL TOOL
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WHAT ELSE WAS HAPPENING IN 1982?
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The tools of the Present Are the Tools of the Past…..
We just don’t know it yet
Elvis has left the building
A FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH
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THE FUTURE MAY FINALLY BE APPROACHING
Bigger trends in technology in general will enable real estate analysis
What are the most likely trends that will influence our ability to analyze data more effectively?
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THE TRENDS TO WATCH FOR
Cloud Computing
Big Data
Mobile Technology
Social Networks
New Analytics
Augmented Reality
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BIG DATA
More data on virtually everything
How is the data analyzed?
What is the benefit?
Data availability will only accelerate - Big Data 2.0
Where are the tools to analyze?
What you need to look for
What you need to do
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THE BOTTOM LINE:CONNECTING ANALYTICS TO REAL ESTATE
The old order changeth, yielding place to the new…”
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Predicts the decline of today’s professions
The Compact between society and today’s professionals
Increasingly capable data and systems to take their place
“We will neither need or want doctors, teachers, accountants, architects, consultants, lawyers and many others to work as they did in the 20th century”
BUT BEFORE WE DO……..THE FUTURE OF THE PROFESSIONS
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Similar to the Industrial Revolution
New technologies are exponential, digital and combinatorial
Most of the gains are still ahead of us
WE ARE LIVING IN AN INFLECTION POINT
In the next 24 months the planet will add more computer power than it did in all previous history
The growth in data is exceeding Moore’s law
The future depends on the choices we make
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Some of the most remarkable innovation is occurring in real estate technology…..
Except its for brokers!
HOW DO WE AVOID BEING RELEGATED TO A BACKWATER ENVIRONMENT?
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Buyer experience
Matching buyers to properties more effectively
Broker vs. Bot
Recommendation engines
Real Estate firms emphasizing their use of AI: Rex Real Estate
Augmented Agents
BROKER-FOCUSSED INNOVATION
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Two RICS White Papers:
4th Industrial Revolution
Billions connected by mobile devices with access to information
Changes coming to information workers
Disruptive changes to appraisal
THE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR APPRAISAL
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Real estate will change to compete on a level playing field with other asset classes
Securitized
Dynamic
Flexible
Transparent
Real Time
WHAT ARE THE RISKS TO APPRAISAL?
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The more likely thattechnologies like ArtificialIntelligence can replace theprocess of examination,interpretation and analysis
THE GREATER THE AMOUNT OF DATA..
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General Data Acquisition
Broad Market Overview
Specific Data Acquisition
Sales/Income/Cost
Narrative Description
What/When/Why
Property InspectionIn person/Drone
Unusual Properties (No two alike)
Applying market data to subject
Interaction with Client
Reasoned Conclusion
LOOKING AT APPRAISAL SKILLSETS
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General Data Acquisition
Broad Market Overview
Specific Data Acquisition
Sales/Income/Cost
Narrative Description
What/When/Why
Property InspectionIn person/Drone
Unusual Properties (No two alike)
Applying market data to subject
Interaction with Client
Reasoned Conclusion
LOOKING AT APPRAISAL SKILLSETS
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Scenarios to consider
APPRAISAL WILL CHANGE
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Change will be driven by clients-we are a service profession
The greater the data the more likely that automation can/will prevail
Valuation is extremely vulnerable from this perspective
A CHANGE IN SKILLSETS
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Market Insight will continue to be valuable
Looking at the property will likely still be required in the short-term
Augmented analysis bringing together expert systems/intelligent agents makes the most sense
“Augmented” Intelligence is the key
Differentiate yourself with real-time and complete market knowledge
Become a Data Valuation Scientist
THE BEST STRATEGY FOR APPRAISERS
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Good-bye desktop, good-bye lap-top
Hello tablet and iPad
This changes everything
Three monitors is not the solution
Going smaller and going mobile
Completing the appraisal in the field
TAKE ADVANTAGE: MOBILE TECHNOLOGY
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MANY OF MY FRIENDS
Are Chief Appraisers
Two Camps
It’s the End-Times
If Appraisers do the right things-they can adapt, they can adopt the right strategies, and they can survive
The challenge?
Slow turn-times
Unwillingness to adapt
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THE SOLUTION?
My optimistic friends
Take an appraiser
Take their skill set
Take their market knowledge
Add Analytics
Conquer the world!
ASA Quote
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AN UNDENIABLE TRUTH
AVMs retreated to their space for now
There is a divide
They are lurking in the background
Seeking their place
Current Status
Increased accuracy
Greater ambition to try again
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THE STATE OF AVMS
Where are we today?
Better Data
Machine Learning
A.I.
Hyper-Accurate Modeling
Visual Recognition/Evaluation
Non-Traditional Data
Neighborhood-Level Data
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THE (VERY) NEAR FUTURE
The Ability to Deal with Qualitative Valuation Elements
View
Floorplan
Quality
Condition
“Curb Appeal”
Kitchen/Bath Remodel
Consumer Preferences
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CHALLENGES
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Data/Analysis
Closed
Private
Banks can see
Appraisers can’t
The Very Predictable Outcome
Goliath knows more than David
How does a sole practitioner deal with that?
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ACCURACY WILL ONLY INCREASE
Pedro Dominguez
The Master Algorithm
R Squared to the Nth
Understanding the unknown
Figuring out “human nature”
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$1,000,000
Crowdsourcing Perfection
+/- 4.5% Absolute Actual Value was the goal
+/- 4.0 was achieved
THE ZILLOW PRIZE-2019
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Two Continents/Three Time Zones
Artificial Intelligence
Machine Learning
Big Data
THE INGREDIENTS
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AN UNDENIABLE FACT
2019 AVM Roundtable
One of the Nation’s Leading Rating Agencies
Their perspective on AVMs
They like the concept
An appraiser going to the house
Inspecting
Evaluating data
Delivering a credible appraisal
The “Gold Standard”
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THE OPPORTUNITY SPACE
This is
Our Space
Our Strength
Our Opportunity
Our Challenge
The Challenge?
Where do we go from here?
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CAN APPRAISERS WORK WITH AVMS?
What does that actually mean?
An AVM, or
The technology itself?
My Experience
The challenges
No “Real” Guidance
USPAP/Foundation not Helpful in the least
Confusion and Distrust
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AVM STANDARDS AND THE FUTURE
No Standards
USPAP Useless
IAAO 2018 AVM Standard
Some AI Member input (primarily review)
Same old/same old (with all due respect)
No real “interactive” focus or advice
A Thought
This is the “undiscovered country”
The Biggest Question: “How does a valuation analyst work with statistically-derived data, predictive analytics, etc.”
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WHAT COULD THE (NEAR) FUTURE LOOK LIKE?
Let’s look at Residential and Commercial with a Focus on Analytics…..
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Flood and Plat Maps
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Data visualization
using heatmaps,
allowing appraisers
to identify
comparable markets
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Submarket analysis
allowing appraisers
to identify and
choose submarkets
applicable to the
report
Particularly
beneficial in densely
populated metros
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Meaningful
statistical analysis
Flexible and open to
add custom analysis
driven by lenders or
AMC’s
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
FNMA: MCA
MARKET
ANALYSIS is driven
by data analysis.
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Regression analysis,
using data
visualization, and
data analysis giving
to Appraisers a full
control of the
process.
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Out of the box
support for the main
four forms
Easy to support
hybrid or alternative
valuation forms
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Sales and Listings
Comparable analysis
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Cost Approach
analysis
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Value Reconciliation
done by Appraisers
using the four
valuation methods
contained in
ValuationNavigator
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ValueScape, Inc., proprietary and confidential information, all rights reserved
Reports on both
PDF and XML
formats
API to integrate
with:
• 3rd Party Systems
(i.e. FNC)
• Desktop
Appraisal
Software
• Proprietary web
forms
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LEST WE IGNORE THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE
AVM Development in CRE Space
Failed in 2001 (CoStar in its infancy)
Multiple efforts by multiple players in the last 18 months
Not as complex as residential; fewer variables;
Less “qualitative or emotion-based”
Technology available in the assessment world for at least two decades
Its Here
Implications
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It would involve a person
It would involve Big Data
It would involve AI
It would involve ML
It would leverage an Appraiser’s Skill Set
It would learn
It would advise
It would be a tool
WHAT WOULD A COMMERCIAL AVM LOOK LIKE?
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HEY SIRI: SHOW ME ALL RETAIL PROPERTIES IN METRO DENVER
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HEY SIRI: LOOK AT MY SUBJECT PROPERTY AND FIND THE SALES THAT ARE MOST SIMILAR IN AGE, USE-TYPE, SIZE AND LOCATION
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HEY SIRI: NARROW THE SEARCH TO THE LAST SIX MONTHS OF SALES
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HEY SIRI: MINIMIZE THE DIFFERENCES, RANK THE MOST COMPARABLE SALES AND DISPLAY THE TOP SIX SALES
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HEY SIRI: SHOW A 1.5 MILE RADIUS AROUND THE SUBJECT AND IDENTIFY ALL RETAIL PROPERTIES: SUMMARIZE VACANCY, SP/SF;
ABSORPTION
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SIRI: SEND THE TYPICAL CONFIRMATION MAIL TO THE BROKER WITH QUESTIONS RELATING TO ALL FIVE SALES
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SIRI: SEARCH GOOGLE AND IDENTIFY ALL ARTICLES ON RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS; SUMMARIZE AND EXTRACT
RELEVANT NARRATIVE
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Market Analysis
Valuation Analysis
Valuation Conclusions
Probability of Accuracy
Futurecasting
SO WHAT IS MISSING?
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TAKE ADVANTAGE: NEW ANALYTICS
Regression Analysis
Geographically-Weighted Regression
Monte Carlo Analysis
Non-Linear Modeling
More Data-Better Models
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AVAILABLE RESOURCES:
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Continue to be open to change
Look for opportunities to analyze data more effectively
When intelligent agents become widespread-adopt!
Keep up to speed on every technological advantage that you can
MAKING THE RIGHT MOVES
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THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE
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THANK YOU!
Mark R. Linné
MAI, SRA, AI-GRS, CAE, CDEI, FRICS
Chief Executive Officer
ValueScape Analytics, Inc.
www.valuescape.com