the new product ecosystem: how design will reinvent manufacturing (maker faire 2013)

7/16/2019 The New Product Ecosystem: How design will reinvent manufacturing (Maker Faire 2013)

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Let"me"begin"by"telling"you"a"bit"about"my"background."Im"a"user"experience"designer."I"

was"one"of"the"first"professional"Web"designers."I’ve"now"been"designing"Web"sites"for"

nearly"20"years."This"is"the"navigaCon"for"a"hot"sauce"shopping"site"I"designed"in"1994."



I’m"proud"of"the"fact"that"16"years"later"they"were"sCll"using"the"same"visual"idenCty."These"

were"some"of"the"oldest"pixels"on"the"Web."

"

I"had"the"privilege"of"designing"the"UI"of"some"of"the"first"ecommerce"sites,"online"chat"

systems,"and"search"engines."I"also"got"to"watch"two"dotcom"crashes"and"saw"many"of"my"clients"fail,"with"years"of"the"work"disappearing"nearly"overnight"



Since"then"I’ve"consulted"on"the"user"experience"design"of"dozens,"maybe"hundreds"of"web"

sites."Here’s"one"for"credit.com,"who"were"fantasCc"clients"a"couple"of"years"ago."



I’ve"also"worked"on"the"user"experience"design"of"a"lot"of"consumer"electronics"products"

from"companies"you’ve"probably"heard"of."



Along"the"way"I"wrote"a"couple"of"books"based"on"my"experience"as"a"designer."One"is"a"

cookbook"of"user"research"methods,"and"the"second"describes"what"I"think"are"some"of"the"

core"concerns"when"designing"networked"computaConal"devices."



I"also"started"a"couple"of"companies."The"first,"AdapCve"Path,"is"primarily"focused"on"the"

web"and"is"considered"quite"influenCal."With"the"second"one,"ThingM,"I"got"deep"into"

developing"hardware."



ThingM"primarily"designs"and"manufactures"a"range"of"RGB"LED’s"with"aXached"controllers"

for"architects,"industrial"designers"and"hackers."These"have"been"on"sale"for"about"five"

years"and"they’re"used"in"everything"from"flying"robot"prototypes"to"costumes"in"Lady"

Gaga’s"stage"show."



We"also"spent"some"Cme"exploring"the"potenCal"uses"of"embedded"compuCng"as"a"design"

material"for"things"that"could"be"classified"in"the"Internet"of"Things."

"

On"the"leZ"is"an"RFID"wine"rack"that’s"faceted"classificaCon"browser"to"a"cloud\based"

service."For"example,"it"can"show"you"all"the"2003"Napa"abernet"Sauvignons"which"are"ready"to"drink"and"whose"current"market"price"is"under"$50."On"the"right"is"a"capaciCve"

sensing"kitchen"cabinet"knob"that"glows"when"you"touch"it."It’s""an"exploraCon"in"making"a"

digital"product"that"would"sCll"be"useful"20"years"aZer"it"was"made."

"



In"January"of"this"year"I"joined"PAR"as"a"principal"in"its"InnovaCon"Services"group."I’ll"tell"

you"more"about"what"we"do"a"liXle"later"in"this"talk."



But"I"didn’t"come"here"to"talk"about"myself.""I"want"to"start"by"talking"

about"how"I"believe"the"pracCces"of"product"development"pioneered"by"

Web"design"will"change"the"how"we"design"physical"products,"specifically"

products"that"we"broadly"call"the"Internet"of"Things,"which"wearables"

broadly"belong"to."



My background is mostly in consumer-facing products, so those are theexamples I’ll use.

Let’s start by imagining Amazon 7 years from now. It looks like this. Yes, it

looks exactly like the Amazon today. It has all of the familiar ways to discovernew products, to compare them, to see what people think of them, to see what

goes with what. It has wish lists, Gold Boxes, the whole thing. But there’s acrucial difference. Instead of Amazon being the front end to a fulfillmentsystem, as it is today, the Amazon of 2020 is the front end to a set of factories.



The back end doesn’t look like UPS, but Ford Motor Company. When you clickon on buy you start a manufacturing process at the factory nearest you, insteadof a delivery process from a warehouse far away."

"

Let’s"pause"for"a"second"and"think"about"what"could"have"caused"such"an"enormous"transformaCon?"

"

River"Rouge"photo"by"Lotus"arroll,"creaCve"commons"hXp://www.flickr.com/photos/

thelotuscarroll/6695794423/q"



Yes"of"course"it"starts"with"digital"manufacturing"technologies,"such"as"N"machines,"the"

MakerBot"and"this"Form1"printer"that"just"got"funded"through"Kickstarter."Digital"

manufacturing"creates"simultaneous"high"flexibility,"distributed"producCon"and"large"scale"

in"one"piece"of"inexpensive"equipment."The"machine"you"use"to"prototype"with"can"be"the"

machine"you"produce"with."The"cost"of"making"the"first"one"and"making"the"1000th"one"are

about"the"same."Thus,"with"digital"manufacturing"the"cost"of"making"design"changes"is"small.""

"

That’s"fantasCc"and"transformaCve,"but"people"have"been"talking"about"it"for"a"long"Cme,"

so"it’s"clearly"not"the"only"thing"required"for"the"change."Rapid,"distributed"manufacturing"

is"a"necessary,"but"not"sufficient"condiCon"for"the"widespread"transformaCon"I"imagine."

These"printers"have"been"around"for"a"long"Cme—so"long"that"the"core"patents"started"

expiring"in"2009,"which"is"why"MakerBot"exists."If"N"machines"were"all"that"was"

necessary,"we"would"have"had"this"revoluCon"earlier."

"

I"think"there’s"something"else."



I"think"that"the"major"change"is"going"to"be"analyCcs,"as"pioneered"by"the"Web."

"

When"you"order"from"the"Amazon"of"2020"a"counter"is"incremented"that"registers"that"you,"a"human"being"with"a"set"of"well\known"behaviors"and"a"demographic"background,"

decided"to"buy"this"specific"version"of"this"specific"idea."



We"can"see"this"already"starCng."Unlike"a"tradiConal"catalog,"where"the"designer"has"very"

liXle"understanding"of"who"buys"their"products,"why"they"buy"them"and"when"they"buy"

them,"Kickstarter"explicitly"puts"that"knowledge"in"the"hands"of"the"developers."It"provides"

analyCcs"about"who"wants"what"you’re"offering,"how"they"found"out"about"you,"what"

they’re"willing"to"pay"for"it,"and"which"features"people"want."Moreover,"it"provides"the"

strongest"signal"of"all,"how"many"people"want"what"you’re"selling."UnCl"enough"people"want"a"product,"it"doesn’t"exist,"and"while"they’re"voCng"with"their"dollars"they"can"say"

exactly"which"variants"of"the"idea"they"want."That"dramaCcally"lowers"the"cost"of"being"

wrong,"which—in"product"development—you"usually"are."



Similarly"the"world"of"2020"will"be"a"world"of"ubiquitous"compuCng,"where"nearly"every"

product"has"a"small"bit"of"digital"hardware"in"it."onnected"electronics"will"be"like"plasCc"or"

aluminum"is"today,"a"material"that"designers"use"to"enhance"the"funcConality"of"that"

device."We’re"already"in"a"world"of"cloud\connected"thermostats,"scales,"locks"and"

pedometers."By"2020,"it’s"be"the"excepConal"object"that’s"NOT"connected"to"the"Internet"in

some"way,"rather"than"the"object"that"is."Everything"from"your"cars"to"your"clothes"will"have"an"informaCon"shadow"in"the"cloud"of"some"sort."



This"connecCvity"will"allow"the"object"to"track"how"the"product"is"actually"used"and,"with"

your"implicit"permission,"send"that"informaCon"back"to"a"central"server,"which"will"

aggregate"and"anonymizes"the"results."

"

Thus"once"you"plug"a"product"in"and"it"begins"phoning"home,"its"makers"can"see"how"you"actually"use"it."When"it’s"on,"what"buXons"you"never"push,"etc."Your"phone,"word"

processor"and"cable"box"already"do"this,"so"it’s"relaCvely"straighorward"to"extend"it"to"

virtually"every"net\connected"device."

"

There"are"a"number"of"services"that"will"allow"you"to"set"up"such"cloud\based"data"

aggregaCon"and"analyCcs"very"easily."



Each"of"these"technologies"creates"a"signal"about"what"people"want"to"buy"and"how"they"

use"the"things"they"own."

"

Here’s"a"product"called"the"Kickback"Machine"that"logs"all"Kickstarter"projects"so"that"you"

can"see"not"just"what"was"successful,"but—to"some"extent—how"it"was"successful.""

Here’s"a"chart"from"sen.se,"that"logs"sensor"data"from"products."Human"use"is"also"a"kind"of

sensor"data,"so"we"can"collect"data"about"which"funcCons"you"use"and"which"you"don’t"

use."



The"combinaCon"of"desire"and"usage"analyCcs"create"signals"for"designers"and"developers"

that,"when"coupled"with"cheap"methods"for"making"small"numbers"of"products,"will"allow"

designers"to"create"mulCple"versions"of"an"idea"and"deploy"them"through"sales"channels"

that"provide"desire"analyCcs"to"see"how"each"version"performs"in"the"marketplace"and"in"

actual"use."Every"device"you"buy"will"provide"the"designer"informaCon"about"what"

combinaCon"of"features"you"want,"and"what"price"you’re"willing"to"pay"for"them."When"you"use"it,"you"will"be"providing"informaCon"about"what"is"useful"and"what"is"not."

"

That"should"seem"familiar,"because"it’s"how"much"of"Web"design"currently"happens."Every"

Cme"you"use"Google,"you’re"parCcipaCng"in"something"like"12"experiments"that"are"

focused"on"how"you"use"their"products"and"how"those"products"can"best"guide"you"to"click"

on"an"adverCsement"for"something"you’ll"buy."

"

Now,"rather"than"depending"solely"on"experience"and"intuiCon,"as"product"design"does"

right"now,"this"process"will"give"designers"informaCon"about"which"product"variaCon"is"preferred,"who"prefers"it"and"how"people"use"it"when"they"get"it."

"

When"done"like"this,"product"design"and"invenCon"becomes"much"more"quanCtaCve,"

essenCally"much"more"scienCfic,"as"designers"make"and"test"hypotheses"about"people’s"

preferences,"interests"and"behavior"by"creaCng"designs,"then"observing"what"people"do"

with"them.""



Understanding"why"people"buy"things"and"how"they"use"them"was"always"a"goal"of"tradiConal"product"design,"but"one"that"was"very"hard"to"reach."TradiConal"product"development"is"where"we"get"techniques"such"as"test"markeCng,"focus"groups,"and"conjoint"analysis."

These"barely"dent"the"surface,"however,"and"in"pracCce,"an"annual"mass"release"of"a"completely"finished"product"IS"the"primary"form"of"user"research"in"most"companies."Unfortunately"the"data"that"comes"back"is"a"mess."It’s"such"a"mulCvariate"problem"that"it’s"almost"

impossible"for"designers"to"see"the"signal"through"the"noise"to"understand"what"makes"a"product"successful,"and"what"doesn’t."Failure"

devolves"into"finger"poinCng"and"success"is"almost"impossible"to"replicate."People"start"believing"in"magical"engineers,"designers"and"marketers."When"this"noisy"feedback"mechanism"is"coupled"with"the"high"cost"of"failure"we"get"the"ultraconservaCve"product"design"of"

today,"which"moves"so"slowly"and"is"so"prone"to"disrupCon"from"small"players."

"

However,"when"you"have"rapid,"cheap,"distributed"low\volume"manufacturing"AND"real\Cme"analyCcs"you"have"a"new"way"of"designing"products."You"can"take"those"Industrial"Age"design"processes"that"took"years"to"test"hypotheses,"and"you"can"speed"them"up"by"orders"of"

magnitude."

"

Image:"hXp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tailfins\evoluCon\1957\1959.jpg"



It"allows"you"to"actually"follow"the"idea"of"concept"convergence"where"you"first"generate"

lots"of"ideas,"then"you"apply"a"test"to"see"which"ones"are"interesCng,"throw"out"the"rest"

and"generate"more"ideas"based"on"the"ones"that"are"interesCng."

"

TradiConally"each"of"these"iteraCons"would"take"years"and"you"could"only"test"one"concept"at"once."With"desire"and"use"analyCcs"we"will"now"be"able"to"do"it"in"months,"or"in"weeks,"

or"days."This"means"we"as"designers,"as"inventors,"can"explore"ideas"that"are"much"less"

conservaCve,"much"less"based"on"what"came"before."Giving"rapid"quanCtaCve"feedback"

frees"designers"imaginaCons,"since"rather"than"pung"all"eggs"in"one"basket,"they"can"

contemplate"many"possible"future"possibiliCes"with"the"knowledge"that"the"ones"that"don’t

work"will"be"weeded"out."



Tight loop iteration between an idea and inexpensive market validation of thatidea is the core of Eric Ries’ and Steve Blank’s Lean Startup approach. The coregoal of the Lean Startup approach is to rapidly identify WHO your customers

are, and what they find valuable, useful or interesting, so that if yourassumptions are wrong—which they usually are—you can find that out quickly

and change course, and when they’re right, you can follow them and expand onthem.

The Lean Startup approach has produced an enormous amount of product

innovation in both Web services and apps.

My vision--MY hypothesis--is that it’s possible to do this with ANYTHING by

applying the ideas, practices and technologies we developed for the Net toeverything else.



You"can"see"it’s"essenCally"already"happening"if"you"look"at"the"low"end"of"commodity"

technology"markets."Here’s"a"selecCon"of"cheap"wristwatch"cellphones."You"can"see"that"

there"are"just"a"couple"PB"shapes,"a"couple"of"case"shapes"and"several"colors,"and"they’re"

mixed"and"matched."What"I’m"proposing"is"that"that"soon"you’ll"be"able"to"do"this"kind"of"

market"tesCng"without"having"to"actually"build"a"single"product."



Another"interesCng"example"of"how"analyCcs"is"already"informing"product"design"is"quirky."

Quirky’s"business"model"is"largely"based"on"crowdsourcing"and"collecCvely"evaluaCng"idea"

to"create"desire"analyCcs"for"funcConality"and"desirability."



They"not"only"provide"desire"analyCcs,"



But"also"about"the"people"who"are"parCcipaCng."Wouldn’t"it"be"great"to"be"able"to"idenCfy"

specific"early"adopter"audiences"and"use"them"to"generate"ideas"for"novel"applicaCons"of"

technologies?"



The"recent"GE/Quirky"collaboraCon"now"includes"a"third"partner,"Electric"Imp,"who"will"be"

providing"the"cloud\based"infrastructure"for"Quirky"GE"products"to"have"usage"analyCcs"in"

all"their"products,"too."



These"analyCcs"will"feed"directly"into"the"design"tools"that"people"will"use."loud\based"

collaboraCve"tools"for"designing"products"are"sCll"in"their"infancy,"but"they’re"rapidly"

coming"online."Tools"like"upverter"and"Fritzing"allow"people"to"collaborate"on"electronics"

design,"ModKit"allows"for"simple"cloud\based"firmware"programming,"while"Sunglass,"

Ponoko"and"Thingiverse"help"with"the"physical"design."Eventually"we’ll"have"tools"for"

making"products"like"we"have"Github,"Basecamp,"WebEx,"Balsamiq,"etc."for"collaboraCng"remotely"on"designing"Web"sites."Say"your"power"generaCng"shoes"are"hugely"popular"in"

Atlanta,"but"people"are"complaining"about"the"feel"of"the"sole"and"you"need"a"mechanical"

engineer"to"look"at"your"heel"gears."Well,"there’s"one"available"in"Thailand"who"will"have"an

updated"set"of"gears"for"you"tomorrow"morning,"so"that"your"industrial"designer"in"Latvia"

can"tweak"the"heel"to"fit"the"new"mechanism."Tomorrow"the"new"shoe"can"be"for"sale"and"

you"can"see"if"people"buy"them"with"the"new"heel"design"and"if"the"new"mechanism"affects"

the"power"generaCon."

"

When"designers"and"inventors"have"data,"and"shared"representaCons"of"ideas"created"by"a"

collaboraCve"design"tools,"they"can"start"to"rapidly"interpreCng"all"of"the"analyCcs"as"product"designs,"sending"the"new"designs"to"the"sales"channel"as"soon"as"the"design"is"

done."It"then"doesn’t"have"to"physically"exist"unCl"the"first"person"buys"it."



So 2020 will look and work exactly like our world today, when seen from theoutside. It will be driven by the same motivations. You’ll still have the thrill of finding something awesome when you’re bored surfing the Internet and then

making it yours by buying it.

However, behind the scenes nearly everything will have changed. The power

shift will mean that design and production cycles will be tight, and led bydesigners working with analytics as one core tool and rapid manufacturing asthe other. Like the flurry of apps we have today, discovery and positioning—how

you get people to find your idea, not just what the idea is—will becomeimportant. It’ll be a new, complex, dynamic and ultimately profoundly different

environment that shift how we think about products in the same way that theWeb has changed how we think about information.



So,"let"me"pull"all"this"together."To"me,"the"whole"ecosystem"looks"like"this."Here"come"the"buzz"words,"so"excuse"me"in"advance."

• Digital"fabricaCon,"we"know"what"that"is."It"will"allow"us"to"make"all"kinds"of"things"in"small"batches."

• Ubiquitous"ompuCng"and"the"Internet"of"Things"is"leading"to"everyday"objects"that"send"a"stream"of"telemetry"when"we"bring"them"home."They"have"an"informaCon"shadow"in"the"cloud"that"can"be"data"mined."

• That"data"is"crunched"in"the"cloud"to"create"analyCcs"about"people’s"desires"and"behavior."

• And"finally,"cloud\based"design"tools"will"allow"designers"and"engineers"to"collaborate"on"the"distributed"development"of"physical"

products."

This"is"my"ecosystem"vision:"a"world"where"design"directly"drives"product"creaCon,"and"where"data"informs"design."This"is"a"world"where"products"are"made"in"small"numbers"only"when"they"are"requested."They"are"made"locally,"with"local"materials"and"workers,"while"at"the"

same"Cme"being"able"to"use"design"and"engineering"talent"from"anywhere"on"earth."In"other"words,"they"use"the"best"qualiCes"of"both"atoms"and"bits:"atoms"are"available"everywhere,"bits"travel"fast."Designers"in"this"vision"add"hypotheses"tesCng"against"the"actual"market"

to"their"toolbox"of"design"methods."

"

In"the"full"pipe"dream,"this"means"we"use"fewer"natural"resources,"take"full"advantage"of"talented"people"wherever"they"are,"create"only"

products"in"large"quanCCes"that"people"need"and"want,"meet"the"needs"of"Cny"niche"audiences,"and"let"designers"and"inventors"let"their"imaginaCons"run"free"to"pursue"their"wildest"ideas."Whew!"



Thank"you"

the new product ecosystem: how design will reinvent manufacturing (maker faire 2013)

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