The new Prospective Parliamentary Candidates

Who are they, where are they, how do you get to them and will they care?

Candidate profiles:

• At every election, there are more than 1,500 parliamentary candidates not currently MPs

• At every election, most of them lose• Big difference this time – more of them are likely

to get elected than in any election since 1945. • At least 129 seats don’t have incumbent MPs

running in them this time.• And even amongst MPs that do run, a pretty big

chunk of the MPs may get defeated.

Candidate profiles: some things have not changed

• Some aspects – no change– Mostly male– Mostly white– Mostly middle-class– Mostly run before– 12½ years in politics – Average age in swing seats is 43

• Younger than the people we’re replacing• But not younger than new MPs of the past

– In my own constituency, the Lib Dems took the bold step of replacing one 45 year old man with another 45 year old man

• Some things haven’t changed at all– Andrew – former President of NUS– I’m – former President of the Cambridge Union

Candidate profiles

• Something else not changed:– We love to play with the latest technology

• CD:– Re-recordings of Gladstone on a wax cylinder– Asquith on 78 rpm record– Lloyd George on the radio

• If any of them around– Playing with Twitter and email and Facebook

• Obama showed there’s a difference between playing with technology and making it work for you

Candidate profiles: some aspects changed

• More female – still a minority – upwards trend– Over half the new candidates in currently held Lib Dem held

seats are women• Possibly a temporary change

– More likely to come from a business background– Less likely to come from a voluntary or public sector

background• Doesn’t mean not interested.• On a personal level:

– Volunteer with several environmental and homelessness groups

• On a business level:– CSR + Cause Marketing– Vodafone/National Autistic Society partnership

Candidate profiles:Political changes

• Political context:– It’s been a while since we’ve faced the kind of

economic and political crisis we currently face– And we’ve never faced an environmental one on

the same scale.• Personal level– Very uncertain.– Lots of marginal seats where two or more PPCs

could plausibly win

Consequences

• Obsessed with the local (temporarily or permanently)– 62% of LD candidates are councillors– 45% of Lab/Tory candidates

• Extremely busy – campaigning extremely hard• If an election is close– Local voters matter– No-one else does– We’re all in campaign mode

If you want to influence us indirectly

This is one where I have no idea how the other parties work...

• Lobby the people who write the policies and the manifestoes

• For the Liberal Democrats – not just MPs and policy researchers:– Policy Working Groups– Federal Policy Committee– Conference delegates

• Don’t underestimate the power of party bloggers– Lib Dem Voice

If you want to influence us directly

• Get local people to contact us• Give us the chance to meet groups of local people– Not least because we’re always very interested in

people active in the community– Source of information – important networkers

• Contact us with local facts• Offer us PR opportunities that will work with local

people and local media• Don’t ask for a lot of time

If you want to influence us directly

• Brochures with cover letters – in the pile– unless they come from a local voter

• Meetings with local people• Emails• Twitter– Appeals to busy people with short attention spans

• Facebook

Will we care?

• I don’t know• Will depend on the party and the person• Either – about personal interests– Homelessness– Technology– Environment– Economy– Autism

• Or – about local voters

BACKGROUND/ATTACHMENTS

Questions to answer• How many MPs are standing down in 2010? How does this

compare to previous elections?• What are the characteristics of the new generation of PPCs?• What does having younger, more diverse and more technologically

savvy MPs mean for campaigners?• What makes them different from MPs in previous years?• What experiences/events shape their political outlook and that of

their peers?• What have PPCs learnt from the expenses scandal?• How do they view the voluntary and community sector?• What are the best tactics for engaging with PPCs pre-election and

post-election?

MPs standing downParty MPs standing

down% of total

Labour 82 23%Conservative 37 19%Lib Dems 7 11%Other (DUP/PC/SNP) 3 17%Total 129 20%

Industry & Parliament Trust Survey of 225 seats most likely to change hands

• Less than half the PPCs surveyed (48%) can demonstrate Business Management or Financial Services (BMFS) experience

• PPCs standing in the next General Election have more BMFS experience than current MPs (as surveyed in April 2008)

• There are twice as many PPCs with 15 years or more BMFS experience (14%) in comparison with the MPs surveyed in April 2008 (7%)

• Conservative PPCs have considerably more BMFS experience than their counterparts in Labour or the Liberal Democrats

• In the seats surveyed, a PPC is twice as likely to be male rather than female• In comparison to the current House of Commons, there are a higher

proportion of female PPCs standing for each of the three main political parties• The average age of a PPC standing in the next General Election is 43• 55% of PPCs have previously stood for election in a general election• Just over a third (35%) of PPCs are current elected representatives• An average PPC has been actively involved in politics for 12.6 years

New Local Government Network

• Relatively small numbers of prospective candidates have experience in frontline public services (Labour 14.3%; Conservatives 8.6%; Lib Dems 13.9%)

• Reasonable numbers of candidates have some form of business background (Conservatives 46%; Lib Dems 30%; Labour 18.2%)

• Very high numbers of candidate have local government experience (Lib Dems 61.9% are or have been councillors; 44.8% Conservatives; 44.2% Labour)

• A significant number of PPCs have experience working for a political party (15%), and working in Parliament (10%).