the next new energy thing ron swenson august 9, 2007
TRANSCRIPT
Swenson’s Law To avoid
deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.
www.OilCrisis.com/Swenson
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Time
Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment
begin investment before decline
Net Energy Production
Begin investment during decline
www.OilCrisis.com/BeyondOil
The Party's Over
“Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.”
Richard Heinberg
www.OilCrisis.com/apollo2
Beyond Oil
“Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities...”
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
www.OilCrisis.com/apollo2
I thought we were talking about Energy!?
So how did Economics (an instrument of policy) get into the picture?
Oil, Jihad & Destiny
“Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.”
Ronald R. Cooke
www.OilCrisis.com/Youngquist
The Long Emergency “… solar
power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel …
James Howard Kunstler
www.OilCrisis.com/apollo2
“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is consuming...”
Pierre Chomat
Oil Addiction: The World in Peril
www.OilCrisis.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
“[While] the costs of wind, solar and biomass have declined due to steady technical advances, in key areas of energy quality—density, net energy, intermittency, flexibility, and so on—they remain
inferior to conventional fuels…
Cutler Cleveland
The Oil Drum, only yesterday
Energy State and Quality (Grade)“In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels.
Cutler Cleveland
So let me explain how this works: First, you invent a new term with emotional overtones – quality – to describe a very simple mechanical concept – concentration. Then you use that term to promote your agenda.
Energy State and Quality (Grade)“In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels.
[] “The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large while that for solar tends to be low.
“Higher energy densities also contribute to the higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many renewable fuels.”
Cutler Cleveland
Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City.
… and what was the premise of converting solar field energy into fuel in the first place?
… unless you consider depletion, ecological footprint of extraction, or the implications of ephemeral technology.
Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field
Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)
178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.OilCrisis.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
Thomas Edison “I'd put my
money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com
Transportation runs on oil …
… So let’s focus on that.
What can we learn from history?
How did transportation morph … • from solid fuels (hay and then coal)…• to liquid fuels (oil)?
And where do we go from here?
...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …
It is criminal to burn food in cars.
• If there were no alternative, we could perhaps tolerate some experimentation.
• But there is an alternative… and it is better in so many ways.
Internal Combustion …
• Take 26.5 Quads of oil
• Turn 21.2 into smoke
• Use 5.3 to run things
… How incredibly wasteful!?
Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…
Touch?
… and it is ephemeral, like solar power.
See?
A match made in heaven.
Lift?
What is PRT?• Personal Rapid Transit (Pod cars)
• Created in 1970s, Morgantown, WV
• 1-4 passengers
• Driverless
• Solar powered, electric drive
• Non-stop to destination
• Vectus, Sweden, 2007
• ULTra, London Heathrow, 2008
PRT advantages
1. Faster 2. Safer 3. Quieter4. Cheaper5. Less energy 6. Zero emissions7. Helps transit-oriented development8. Driverless = enjoyable commute time
PRT considerations
• Requires government approval• Sometimes obstructs views • Upfront investment => long-term
savings• Complex software ~ air traffic
control• Overcome entrenched interests
Transportation Energy for 100 PeopleBattery Electric PRT
Vehicles 100 20
Total weight (tons) 200 5
Battery weight (tons) 25 1
Recycle batteries ? % 99%
Embodied energy ratio 50 1
Battery losses 15% <1%
Rolling Resistance (at 60 mph) 5000 watt 500 watt
Aerodynamic Drag (at 60 mph) 7000 watt (cd=0.2) 750 watt (cd=0.1)
Parasitic energy Consumption 275 6
Energy use (watt-hr/mile) ~150 ~50 (skytran)
Safety ≈ two 747s/week die Very safe
Quality of life 1 hr per day lost Quality time in transit
30 mph, operating speed
x 2 sec (vehicle interval)
= 88 ft between vehicles
= 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified
x 2 kw @ operating speed
= 120 kw needed in a mile stretch
10 hrs at peak operation equivalent
÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6)
= 2.5 solar factor
120 x 2.5 = 300 kW/mile
x $6.00 /watt
$1,800,000 /mi
16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market
3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement
Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile
25 mpg, average fleet mileage
27,000 passengers per day to match
2.0 people/vehicle
13,500 vehicles/day
x $2.50 /gallon fuel price
= $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily
$ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage
$ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage
= 3.7 years payback for solar system to offset gasoline
Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.
Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.
Solar Industry Response?
www.OilCrisis.com/Apollo2
Goals• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%
How to get there? • Federal government procurement
$100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year by
2010• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,
support, increase, strengthen, grow…”
Inadequate
InadequateInconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
At least somebody gets it!
www.OilCrisis.com/Smalley
Richard Smalley discovered “Bucky Balls” – Fullerenes
The Terawatt Challenge
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Fission
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0.5%
Source: BP & IEA
2004
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2050
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = Renewables
www.OilCrisis.com/Smalley
Total Area Required for a Photovoltaic Power Plant to Produce the Total U.S. Annual Electrical Demand
Nevada
P109-G1055201
Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
PV: The Growth Industry
OilOil
PVPV
Oil declines at 4%/yr
PV increases at 50%/yr
www.OilCrisis.com/Apollo2
Thermodynamics of Coal
Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil
EROI = 927 ~ electric quality
1 BOE
Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?
Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination
EROI = 10±
EROI = 4 12 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Nuclear
Plus …
• Depletion
• Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process
• Waste guard for 10,000+ years
… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?
Thermodynamics of Tar Sands
Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses
natural gas
EROI = 3Why bother?!
Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be bootstrapped
EROI = 1030 ~ electric
Back to State & Quality (grade) …How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors?• Time / sustainability
• oil depletion: Inevitable degradation of quality.• solar endurance: “Low” quality starts to make sense.
• Land use / ecological footprint• Uranium tailings: Most dense becomes the most diffuse. • Open pit coal mines: Density depends on measuring stick.• It’s even an issue with Solar: PV on roofs ≠ PV in deserts.
•Security / Energy drain on future generations• Nuclear Power M.A.D.: ERoEI goes astronomically negative.• Oil Wars: How much energy does it take to protect energy?• Solar: Power satellites are weapons, not energy technology.
Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field
Taking it one step further …
• You may think I’m pushing solar?
• Yes and no. The main point is …
• Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing the solutions with the best ERoEI…
• And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of electric transport.
Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place…
www.ecotopia.com/ST
• ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban transport…
(not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)
• Fuels will remain essential for:
• Airplanes
• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs)
• Agriculture
The conclusions are simple:
• We are not doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital
resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.
• Then we must act quickly with resolve.
Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?