the next wave of massive disruptions to the peering ecosystem tokyo peering forum ii june 22, 2006...
TRANSCRIPT
The Next Wave of
Massive Disruptions to the Peering Ecosystem
Tokyo Peering Forum IIJune 22, 2006
William B. NortonCo-Founder & Chief Technical Liaison
Equinix, Inc.
Slide set v0.8
Internet Operations White Papers
Name: William B. Norton Internet Researcher
What is Peering? When does it make sense?
On the Internet Everyone is a Publisher
Internet Operations White Papers1) “Interconnection Strategies for ISPs”2) “Internet Service Providers and Peering”3) “A Business Case for Peering”4) “The Art of Peering: The Peering Playbook”5) “The Peering Simulation Game”6) “Do ATM-based Internet Exchanges Make Sense
Anymore?” 7) “Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem”8) “The Asia Pacific Internet Peering Guidebook”9) “The Folly of Peering Traffic Ratios?”
Freely available. See Web site or send e-mail to [email protected] makes anyone a publisher, similar effect now emerging for video
Massive Disruption in U.S. Peering Ecosystem Short Videos
• YouTube – founded 2005• Short video clips – 50 million view per day!• 20Gbps of peering traffic
– In less than 1yr
• Entering Peering Ecosystem• 30 Other competitors600Gbps peerable?• VideoPeering may dwarf current peered traffic
– 2010 – 80-90% Internet is Video– Inculcate video guys into peering ecosystem
On the Internet Everyone is a Broadcaster
Short video clips…Full TV shows…
Source: http://www.nanog.org/mtg-0606/norton.html
Massive Disruption in U.S. Peering Ecosystem Full Episodes
• “Desperate Housewives” – 210MB/hour– For 320x240 Video iTunes image
• 10,000,000 households
• 2,100,000,000 MB = 2.1 peta-Bytes
• How long will that take to download?
Source: http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20060302.html
Historical Perspective…review 5yr disruptions…
3 days @ 64Gbps non-stop !Just one showTry 250M*180 Channels*HDTV
Evolution #1
1) Volume of traffic is huge2) Cable Cos Open Peering3) “Kazaa Effect” amplifies peering benefits
Scale: O(20Gbps) peered
Significant Evolution…
2002: Evolution #1Cable Companies Peer
T1 ISPs
T2 ISPs
Content
1) Volume of traffic is huge2) Content is Open Peering3) Improves End-User Experience4) Leading Players are paving the way
Scale: O(100Gbps) peered
Significant Evolution…
T2 ISPs
Content
T1 ISPs
T2 ISPs
Content
2002: Evolution #2Large Scale
Content Players Peer
1) Volume of traffic pulled away from T1s is huge2) Reduces perceived need forT1s (for local delivery anyway)3) T1s still needed for distance
Content Literally directly onThe Cable Company NetworkScale: O(100Gbps)
Significant Evolution…
2002: Evolution #3 Cable Cos Peer w/Large Scale Content Players
T2 ISPs
Content
T2 ISPs
Content
T1 ISPs
Content
T2 ISPs
1) Volume of traffic is huge2) Most Traffic is Regional3) Massive Growth4) Many Emerging players5) Video size growth
Scale: O(600Gbps)
Significant Evolution…
2006: Evolution #4 VideoPeering
T2 ISPs
Content
T2 ISPs
Content
T1 ISPs
Content
T2 ISPs
Video ServiceProviders
Notes: Questionable if aggregate capacity existsTBD Impact of CDN/P2P/Satellite/caching/etc.Net Neutrality Issues not considered here
Predictions for 2010
1. Video streaming volume has grown 100 fold 2. 10% of all cell phones are now video phones 3. Video IM emerged as a dominant app4. P2P will emerge for non-pirated videos – DRM in
place and embraced 5. Voice calls are free, bundled with other things6. IPTV replaces cable TV 7. 40% paid or subscription as opposed to Content
Click Ads. LikeCable Company channel packages, folks will flock to subscriptions for Internet Content packages.
Source: NANOG & Content Forum Discussions – June 2006
Other Predictions (cont’d)
1. Death of TV ads, Death of broadcast TV, Tivo & Tivo likeappliances all use the Internet with emergence of targeted ads basedon demographic profiles of viewer
2. Near simultaneous release of movies to the theaters, DVDs for thehome, PPV, and Internet download to meet needs of differentdemographics.
Summary
• Massive Wave of new video traffic within 12 months– Short video clips – 100’s of gbps– TV Shows – 2.1 petabytes/Video iPod show– “Video Peering”
• Prepare for the next wave of Internet Traffic• It is peerable content• These forums are very valuable as a place
to share information, insights, data
