Sustainability of engineered rivers in arid lands: Outlook to 2060 January 13-16, 2014 Texas, USA.

The Nile Basin Summary of basin characteristics H A N D O U T

Lars Ribbe Professor for Integrated Land and Water Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics.

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C O N T E N T S Geography ....................................................................................... Page 3 Climate ............................................................................................... Page 4 Water Resources ............................................................................. Page 5 Water demand ................................................................................ Page 6 Other river functions ........................................................................ Page 7 Demographics and economy ...................................................... Page 8 Planned water resources projects ............................................... Page 9 Water management agencies and policies ........................... Page 10 Transboundary agreements ........................................................ Page 12 Key Problems .................................................................................. Page 13 Current knowledge about impacts of climate change and reservoir sedimentation ................................................................................. Page 14

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G E O G R A P H Y

Location of the Nile Basin and the shared countries

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C L I M A T E

Rainfall regimes over the Nile basin (base period is 1961 to 1990). .

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W A T E R R E S O U R C E S

Nile flow at key locations

Interannual variability of Nile flow at High Aswan Dam

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W A T E R D E M A N D

Water Stress In a few years from now, the coming water scarcity reaches most of Africa. Almost all sub-Saharan countries will be below the level at which water supply is enough for all. Even worse, most of them will be in a state of water-stress or scarcity.

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O T H E R R I V E R F U N C T I O N S

Historic Water transportation system

The existing reservoirs are used for irrigation, hydropower and flood regulations. The natural lakes and reservoirs are also used as source of fishes. The Sudd wetland acts like a giant sponge, retaining water and releasing it slowly throughout the year. In this way, it regulates the flows of the White Nile. It is considered as highly biodiverse ecosystem. Due to cataracts and bends, the Nile River is not entirely navigable.

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D E M O G R A P H I C S A N D E C O N O M Y

Population The population of the Nile Basin countries was estimated around 372 million in 2005 with 54% of the total population lives within the Nile basin.

ECONOMY

Data source: FAO (2011) and FAOSTAT (2013) Source: ITT Nile Group (2013)

Riparian Countries’ GDP Growth Rate in 2012

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W A T E R R E S O U R C E S P R O J E C T S

Planned Hydropower Scheme Planned Irrigation Scheme

Existing dams on the Nile

Existing hydropower schemes (MW): High Aswan Dam (2100), Merowe (1250), Tekeze (300), Roseries (280), Owen falls (270), Bujagali (250), Tana-Beles (219), Fincha (134), Tis Abay (84), Jebel Aulia (28), Kashim El-Girba (18), Sennar (15).

Hydropower scheme under construction (MW): GRED (6000, Ethiopia), Karuma (250, Uganda)

Existing irrigation schemes (´000 ha): Downstream of High Aswan Dam including delta (4100), Toshka (500), Suki (30), Upstream Sennar (78), Downstream Sennar (167), Gezira and Managil (882), Rahad (148), Fincha (8, Ethiopia) and Upstream of Lake Tana (7, Ethiopia).

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W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T A G E N C I E S A N D P O L I C I E S

Nile Basin Strategic Action Program At present Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is operational as the transitional institutional mechanism after TECCONILE. Water ministers of the following countries participate since 1999: Burundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda while Eritrea has observer statuser.

“NBI serves as a (transitional) institutional framework for managing transboundary trade-offs and opportunities, such as sharing hydropower benefits, stronger integration in agriculture markets and exploiting opportunities for regional trade. The NBI developed a Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement containing 44 articles clearly defining the intension, utilization, sustainability, optimization, benefit sharing and cost sharing principles of Nile riparian states. NBI Strategy:

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W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T A G E N C I E S A N D P O L I C I E S …

Managing water resources under conflict situation:

By coming together to jointly manage their shared water resources, countries build trust and prevent conflict. In the face of potential conflict and regional instability, the Nile basin countries continue to seek cooperative solutions. Water management schemes must promote equitable use for current and future users, increase access, share benefits, and encourage broad participation.

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T R A N S B O U N D A R Y A G R E E M E N T S

Nile Basin treaties overview:

The use of the Nile River has for centuries been monopolized by the lower riparian countries that claim ‘historic right’ over the waters. The hegemony over the Nile Waters has been under these countries, thus building tensions among the riparian countries. The upper riparian countries which are sources of the water were for long alienated from their own vital resource. Also, none of the past treaties and agreements dealing with the use of Nile waters signed during the colonial period involved all the riparian countries and they did not deal equitably with the interests of these riparians. Also they did not take in to account the impact of water development on the basin social and biophysical environment.

Despite a long history of conflicts over Nile waters, yet currently there is no basin-wide agreement or governing body ratified by all riparian states.

Source: ITT Nile Group (2013) 

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K E Y P R O B L E M S

Current Observed Issues: Population growth and rapid

development Drought Strong socio-economic

dependency on water Absence of basin-wide

management Complex hydrology Environmental hazards Livelihoods issues Conflict and inequity Power imbalance and mistrust Uncertainty an lack of transparency

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S E D I M E N T S A N D C L I M A T E C H A N G E

Standardized anomaly indices of

annual mean temperatures of the

Eastern Nile Basin

The largest sediment contribution (61%)

comes from the Blue Nile (Abay)

catchment, followed by (36%) from the

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R E F E R E N C E S FAO (2011). Farming Systems Report Synthesis of the Country Reports at the level of the NiBasin. Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations, Rome. 307–334, Springer, Dordrecht,The Netherlands. Aquastat dams database (2008). AQUASTAT – Geo - referenced database on African daOriginal 5 April 2006 , revised 14 March 2011 , revised 2 Ju ly 2013. From http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dams/index.stm Camberlin, P. (2009) Nile Basin climates, in The Nile, H. J. Dumont (ed.), Monographiae Biologicae 89,

ITT Nile Group (2013): A research group on the Eastern Nile Basin http://www.tt.fh-koeln.de Mohamed, Ahmed and Jagannathan, N. Vijay (2009), Egypt: Water Sector Public ExpendReview. In: Jagannathan, N. V. Mohamed, Ahmed S. and Kremer, Alexander(Ed), Water iArab World Management Perspectives and Innovations. (pp. 37-57), Washington, DC USAInternational Bank of Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank Middle East and Africa (MENA) Region Publishing NBI (2012): State of the River Nile Basin Report. Nile Basin Intiative (NBI) Publishing. UNEB (2008): Vital Water Graphics An Overview of the State of the World’s Fresh and MarWaters - 2nd Edition – 2008. From http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/article83.html UNEP. (2013). “Adaptation to Climate-change Induced Water Stress in the Nile Basin: A Vulnerability Assessment Report”. Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA). UnitedNations Enviroment Programme (UNEP). Nairobi, Kenya. Waterwatch (2009): The Nile basin: Irrigation water management. Retrieved from: http://www.waterwatch.nl/publications/posters/nile-basin-irrigation-water-management.on 8/1/2014 Zeitoun, Mark, J.A. (Tony) Allan, Yasir Mohieldeen (2010): Virtual water ‘flows’ of the Nile B1998–2004: A first approximation and implications for water security Original Research ArtiGlobal Environmental Change, Volume 20, Issue 2, May 2010, Pages 229-242.