the north east economy in a different light: some slides you won’t have seen...
TRANSCRIPT
The North East economy in a different light:
Some slides you won’t have seen
[email protected] Economist – North East LEP
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Poun
ds
England North East North West Yorkshire and The HumberEast Midlands West Midlands East LondonSouth East South West
London
North East
England
95
100
105
110
115
2009 2010 2011 2012
GVA
/hou
r wor
ked.
Bas
e 20
09=1
00
North East LEP England exc London London North East region
The North East LEP area is a great place to be an employer
…and median wages are very competitive
Labour productivity (GVA per hour worked) growing at fastest rate in the country
This is reflected in output and business formation data…
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 Average of 3 years
North East LEP England exc London London North West
GVA per head growing among highest rates in the country…
…while births and deaths of businesses (as % of registered
businesses) are on a par with the national figures...
2009 2010 2011 2012NELEP 10% 9% 11% 11%
England exc London 10% 9% 11% 11%
2009 2010 2011 2012NELEP 12% 11% 10% 11%
England exc London 12% 10% 10% 11%
Deaths of registered enterprises (as % of active ones)
Births of registered enterprises (as % of active ones)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
North East LEP England except London & SE UK
But the North East is also a great place to be an employee:
For someone on median income, real wages (which account for cost of living) are among the highest in the country
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
London South West South East East of England
West Midlands
Wales East Midlands
Yorkshire & The
Humber
North East North West
Median income of full time employees, expressed in North East prices, 2012
Ratio of 90th to 10th percentile of hourly pay (all employees)
And the North East has some of the most equal distribution of wages in the country
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0N
orth
Eas
t
York
sh&
Hum
b
East
Mid
land
s
Wes
t Mid
land
s
Sout
h W
est
Nor
th W
est
East
Sout
h Ea
st
Lond
on
12,04912,875
16,07716,978
19,125 19,286
21,937
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Northum'd Durham North East LEP
Sunderland England exc London
Tyneside England
73% of England
Source: Prepared with data from ONS, release 12 December 2013
Gross Value Added per person, 2012 (current basic prices)Current £
However, levels are still a way off and challenges remain…
Taken from the North East Independent Economic Review, except far right bar (prepared with data from BIS)
Qualification profile – North East LEP vs. England-is it an age issue?
Source: Prepared with data from ONS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
No Quals NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 NVQ4+
Aged 16-24
No Quals NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 NVQ4+
Aged 25-49
North East LEP
England except London
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
No Quals NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 NVQ4+
Aged 50-64
Data for 2013
…and our young are achieving really great GCSEs:
No one else in the country gets a greater % of students achieving 5 A*-C GCSEs. And we’ve been topping this table since 2008….
Region 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012North East 53.5 57.4 60.6 66.5 72.9 79.5 84.7 88West Midlands 54.2 56.4 59.3 64.1 70.1 77.9 83 85.5North West 53.9 56.6 60.3 65.4 71 77.7 82.2 84.2London 55.3 58.3 60.9 65 71.2 77.7 82 84.1Yorkshire and The Humber 51.3 54.5 57.8 62.1 69.2 76.8 81.5 84.1East Midlands 52.5 55.4 57.9 63.1 68.9 75.3 80 82.7South East 57.6 59.8 62 66 70.2 75.8 79.3 82East of England 56.6 59.3 61.2 64.7 69 74.3 78 80.6South West 56.1 58.2 59.5 63.6 67.9 72.7 76.8 79.8England 56.3 59 61.4 65.3 70 75.4 79.5 81.8
… which, combined with our productivity and income advantages means a greater future for those in employment in the North East
Wages catching up as a result of productivity gains…
82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94%
20 percentile
Median
80 percentile
Year 2002
Year 2013
North East weekly gross pay as % of England (all workers)
…and the same with Gross Disposable Household Income per capita (both in long and short run)
Sout
h W
est,
16,9
14
Wes
t Mid
land
s, 1
4,74
4
East
of E
ngla
nd,
17,6
30
Sout
h Ea
st, 1
9,12
6
East
Mid
land
s, 1
5,20
6
Engl
and,
17,
066
Uni
ted
King
dom
, 16,
791
York
sh&
Hum
ber,
14,5
75
Nor
th W
est,
14,9
39
Lond
on, 2
1,44
6
Nor
th E
ast,
14,3
93
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Change 2011-12 (left axis) Change 2000-12 (right axis)
2012 levels in columns
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
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250,000
300,000
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450,000
UK North East North West
Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East London South East South West
England
£s per headMillion £s
Imports (left) Exports (left)
Imports/head (right) Exports/head (right)
Source: HMRC, figures released 6 march 2014
Foreign trade in goods: only English region with consistent positive trade balance in goods every year 2010-13
Imports and exports, goods, 2013
On a per capita basis, exports perform above national average.
So, what do the young and the current workforce and employers need?
-Greater digital and physical connectivity: locally, nationally, internationally
-Private sector innovation and investment: embed productivity gains and competitiveness
-Inclusive growth: wage equality for employees not yet matched with inclusivity across the population –outcomes for women, older workers, ethnic minorities need to improve
In terms of employment, the ambition of our Strategic Economic Plan is to reach 1 million people in employment in the North East LEP by 2024
A record number of people are in employment in the North East:1.2 million in employment in North East (approx 900k in the North East LEP). Feb-Apr 2014: increase of 47,000 compared to same quarter last year (7 times Nissan).
Employment rate reached 69.5% (for UK it was 72.9%). This is the highest value since mid 2007, and very high for North East (record 69.8%)
The employment rate increase on previous year is more than double that of UK and higher than any other region (also compared to previous quarter). Largest drop in labour market inactivity: Economic Inactivity rate of the labour force went down by 3 percentage points compared to same quarter last year, by far the largest drop in the country (six times the size of the UK drop). Economic activity is at a record high 77.2% (just 1% below UK).
Our employment is increasing mainly as a consequence of decrease in inactivity, which is badly needed by the North East.
And some of it is happening now –Latest labour market news for the North East from ONS:
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Mar
-May
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2O
ct-D
ec 1
992
May
-Jul
199
3D
ec-F
eb 1
994
Jul-S
ep 1
994
Feb-
Apr
199
5Se
p-N
ov 1
995
Apr
-Jun
199
6N
ov-J
an 1
997
Jun-
Aug
199
7Ja
n-M
ar 1
998
Aug
-Oct
199
8M
ar-M
ay 1
999
Oct
-Dec
199
9M
ay-J
ul 2
000
Dec
-Feb
200
1Ju
l-Sep
200
1Fe
b-A
pr 2
002
Sep-
Nov
200
2A
pr-J
un 2
003
Nov
-Jan
200
4Ju
n-A
ug 2
004
Jan-
Mar
200
5A
ug-O
ct 2
005
Mar
-May
200
6O
ct-D
ec 2
006
May
-Jul
200
7D
ec-F
eb 2
008
Jul-S
ep 2
008
Feb-
Apr
200
9Se
p-N
ov 2
009
Apr
-Jun
201
0N
ov-J
an 2
011
Jun-
Aug
201
1Ja
n-M
ar 2
012
Aug
-Oct
201
2M
ar-M
ay 2
013
Oct
-Dec
201
3
Inactivity rate Those not working or looking for a job among the 16-64 year olds
Inactivity North East region Inactivity UK
The best picture of North East’s success….