the northern alliance prepares for afghan elections in 2014

8/22/2019 The Northern Alliance prepares for Afghan elections in 2014

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AFGHANISTAN REPORT 10

Mara Tchalakov

August 2013

The NorTherN AlliANce PrePAresfor AfghAN elecTioNs iN 2014


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Cover Photo: Salahuddin Rabbani (C) prays after he was introduced as the care taker to Jamiat-eIslami party during a gathering at the Kabul Intercontinental Hotel October 4, 2011. The partysleader Burhanuddin Rabbani, former Afghan president and head of the governments peace council,

was killed on Sept 20, 2011. Salahuddin Rabbani, son of Burhanuddin Rabbani, was appointed asthe care taker to Jamiat-e Islami party during the gathering in Kabul. REUTERS/Ahmad Masood.

A t vd. Pntd n t Untd stat Ama. N pat t pubatn ma b pdud tanmttd n an m b anman, tn mana, nudn ptp, dn, annmatn ta tva tm, wtut pmn n wtn mt pub.

2013 b t inttut t stud Wa.

Pubd n 2013 n t Untd stat Ama b t inttut tstud Wa.

1400 16t stt NW, sut 515 Wantn, Dc 20036.

ttp://www.undtandnwa.


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Mara Tchalakov

The NorTherN AlliANce PrePAres

for AfghAN elecTioNs iN 2014


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About our technology PArtners

isW bv up tat nt dv m a un tadtna a n a and nnvatv

tna mtd. isW nz tat t anat t utu mut b ab t p a wd vat

nmatn, ann m pna ntvw and ta atat t vum tutud data. isW tank

t tn patn, Paant Tn and Pant Anat, t uppt n t nnvatv

ndav. in patua, t tn and mpmntatn atan a upptd atn man t map

and ap n t pdut.

Pant Anat a Vtan ownd sma Bun bad n Aanda,

Vna. ou am t vutnz w t wd undtand nmatn

b mpwn u utm wt t att anat t and mtd.

cunt, Pant pvd va ta v t u vnmnt andmma nt: tann, mbddd ana, patm ntatn, and

pdut utmzatn.

Paant Tn wkn t ada an w up anaz

information. We currently oer a suite of software applications for integrating,

vuazn and anazn t wd nmatn. W uppt man knd

data nudn tutud, untutud, atna, tmpa and pata.

About the Author

Maa Taakv a dta anddat n intnatna ratn at t Unvt od. s mptd undaduat tud at Pntn Unvt, aduatn wt a B.A. umma um aud m t Wdw

Wilson School of Public and International Aairs, and her MPhil in International Relations from the University od.

s a wkd a vat vnmnt an, avn vd n t sta stat P Pannn

Sta at the U.S. Department of State and with the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Most recently, wkd t Untd stat cnta cmmand, a na mbatant mmand t U.s. Dpatmnt Dn, w ud n u atd t Aantan and Paktan and pnt tm atn NATointnatna sut Atan f n Kabu.

Acknowledgements

i wud k t tnd m attud t numu au pat and pnt t ntu dbak,encouragement, and interest. My sincere thanks in particular to Kim Kagan, Jessica Lewis, Je Dressler, Aaronr, and u ndmtab Ma obwn p wt ap and pvdn t pjt pnap. lat but nt at, i am atu t Ju sup M, catn Pad, and Jakn Kt t

unagging research assistance.

About the InstItute

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-prot, public policy research organization. ISWadvances an informed understanding of military aairs through reliable research,trusted analysis, and innovativeduatn. isW mmttd t mpvn t natn abt t ut mta patn and pnd tmn tat n d t av U.s. tat bjtv.


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TABle of coNTeNTs

executIve summAry ... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . 07

IntroductIon ... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . 09

JAmIAt From 1979-2001 ... . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . 10

FActIonAl sPlInterIng durIng & AFter the sovIet wAr.... . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . 11

From IdeologIcAl orIgIns to A cAdre oF PersonAlItIes ... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 13

From the FAll oF the tAlIbAn to the 2009 electIon ... . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. 15

From rAbbAnIs AssAssInAtIon to the 2014 electIon ... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 24

At tA mo hA mmAd noo r: From Prov In cI Al stron gmA n to PresId en tIAl

cAndIdAte? ... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . 29

mArshAl mohAmmAd QAsIm FAhIm: JAmIAts kIngPIn ... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 32

whIther JAmIAt In 2014? ... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 34

conclusIon ... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 35

notes ... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . 37

mAPs & chArts

mAP oF AFghAnIstAn ... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . 08

PrIncIPAl JAmIAt FActIons ... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . 11

JAmIAt chronology to 2001 ... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . 14

PrIncIPAl northern AllIAnce PArtIes .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 17

JAmIAt electIon tImelIne ... . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . 22

whos who Among JAmIAt-AFFIlIAted leAders, PArt I . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . 25

whos who Among JAmIAt-AFFIlIAted leAders, PArt II . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . 26

AfghANi sTAN rePorT 10 | The NorTherN Alli ANce PrePAres for Afgh AN elecTioNs | TchAlAKoV | AUgUsT 2013


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7www.understAndIngwAr.org

execUTiVe sUMMAry

The Doha talks with the Taliban have diverted Washingtons eorts away from the far more important negotiationsamn Aantan pta t tat w atua dtmn wt t unt unt and nttutnasystem endures past 2014. Afghanistans history suggests that any successful political accommodation of its dierentethnic factions in 2014 will be impossible without incorporating the interests of those inuential leaders and

mmand unt m aatd wt Jamat- iam. Jamat man n Aantan dtand most inuential Tajik-dominated political parties, forged as a political-military organization that eventuallyformed the core of the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. As negotiations with the Taliban proceed in tsand tat, U.s. pmak wud d w t mmb tat u ntatn d v tt appa tinuential politicians aliated in one form or another with Jamiat.

The political calculus of most of these former Northern Alliance leaders looking ahead to 2014 remains rmlycentered upon maintaining and advancing their inuence within the constellation of Kabuls ruling politicala. f t ndvdua, t qutn w w ud Pdnt Kaza and w w mp a uvnmnt n a pt-Kaza a paamunt. T u a a paamunt Kaza. f a t t,t ppt v wa amn tn Aan atn m danu t t unt unt tan t Taban

insurgency. But the establishment of a Taliban political oce and political party that does not recognize the currentAan nttutn tatn a tm.

Jamat and t t Tajk pat a nt k t p a mannu ta an t Patun u. Dunt a tan aant bt t svt and t Taban, Jamat nv dvpd a ntazd pat tutundpndnt t man utzd pnat. At t a t Taban m, t pat pdd tpnt nt tw man amp, btwn t wad w t pmnn m t ank t mujadnmmand and a up -td pptn ptan. Pdnt Kaza a a bn ab t -pt tmost inuential Jamiat-aliated warlords, including Marshal Fahim, Ismail Khan, and to some extent Atta Noor,tu tat appntmnt. T a uu kpt t pat amntd and manazd pptn.lkn aad t 2014, t man una wt Jamat a t apabt t un bnd a n anddat,

and wt tat anddat w un n pptn t Kaza a u n uppt t.The nature of the political handover of power in 2014 will be the most signicant short-term benchmark of stability t unt. T Untd stat ud wk t atat t tm, , and a dn tn n Ap2014. A repeat of the tainted election of 2009, in which a run-o between President Karzai and his challenger

Abdua Abdua wa na d, wud b datu t unt. Pdnt Kaza undtand t. Tpdnt w t nu tat t nt man t Aan tat appaatu nzd bnd n u n mak pn knwn. in d t w mamum dnn wtn Tajk ank,the president is unlikely to publicly anoint his political heir until he has co-opted at least one or two inuentialTajk ptan. in t t-tm, t namnt k Jamat- iam ptan w b ta t a mtm tantn n Aantan a t unt mv nt a pt-Kaza a.

T pt aad t 2014 tn ndat tat t w nt atu a ada nw t pta pa.Wtut ntnatna uppt t nttutnazatn Aan pta pat, v t up, unand m-mndd pta pa, and t pnazatn an ndpndnt v v, t tn n2014 w pnt bun a uua Kabu pta t. A mt tantn pw an w tnot guarantee a durable political accommodation among those competing for power and inuence in Afghanistan,but at ma mp da nt 2015 2016 a m vnt tu nt t unt.

AfghANi sTAN rePorT 10 | The NorTherN Alli ANce PrePAres for Afgh AN elecTioNs | TchAlAKoV | AUg UsT 2013


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mAP 1 | AFghAnIstAn


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The NorTherN AlliANce PrePAresfor AfghAN elecTioNs iN 2014B Maa Taakv


Pta tantn n Aantan n nt dad av undd t unt pptuadiculty in both institutionalizing its personality-driven politics and in unifying its national elite.Should President Hamid Karzai abide by his promise to retire in 2014 after a second term in oce, these

an w m t t n m a vau anddat mpt t ud m. in a p

vn t t Natna gvn cnn n Jun 2013, Maa Mammad fam, Aantan

rst vice president and an inuential former Northern Alliance commander, prognosticated that the

upmn pta tantn wud b vn at nqun tan t ut tantn atd

2014.2 T tw, wv, a k t and-n-and.

Wt Aan ptan w mana t pvnt t

kind of elite fragmentation among their dierent ethnic

atn tat a ud n t pat and pv

t unt nttutna d k t av a

dpptnat mpat n t abt t put

the war eort and achieve a stable peace. For the

inuential Tajiks among Afghanistans ruling political

class, the months leading up to the 2014 election aord

an pptunt pta and tn ndatn

and a an t d t at ud an untab

tantn t a pt-Kaza a man t unt n

aan pund nt v wa.

A Aantan nd at tn upn, Tajk

a tna a mnt wtn t unt mut-

tn tat. Nnt, t unt t ut

tat an tab pta ammdatn at 2014 w b

ntnnt upn npatn t ntt t mt

inuential leaders currently or formerly associated with

Jamat- iam.3 Jamat man n Aantan

oldest and most inuential Tajik-dominated political

pat, na d a a tanzim pta-mtaanzatn. T pat mmb md t t

ant-svt mujadn tan and t Ntn

Aan aant t Taban. sn t nptn n t

1970s, the partys fortunes have ebbed and owed. While

Jamat mmb av ntnt dmnatd ua

cabnt mnt n t a t Taban, t

pat a a ndud t bakawa atn and

suered sudden leadership changes. Nonetheless, many

t k pa man nta t t a pta

qubum Pdnt Kaza a, wt van u

mantand t t pnt da. lk t m tanzims

Jamat man ntd aund tn ad at

tan pat nttutn, wt man t ad

already jostling for inuence in a post-Karzai regime.

Tajk anddat av ta tud n t

abt t unt a Patun-dmnatd unt; aan

with inuential Pashtun candidates and the threat of

pt-ut, patua v ntatn wt t Taban,

w man dmnant ntatn tat n 2014.

in tan t dad-n tajt n t

mt pmnnt Tajk-dmnatd pta pat n

Afghanistan, this report identies the key Tajik political

pa n t nt t unt, ta t vvn

pta atnp amn n ant and wt

t ptan, and dnat t pnt pta

anda. T pt amn t d unt wtn

t pat appaatu and w t baann bav

its key members at crucial electoral inection pointsut tan Tajk ad mt ptn tmv

aad t 2014 ntt. fm t a a, unt

wtn t pat wa a dpndnt upn a tat

tna . evn , t svt nvan, t

nun v wa, and t t Taban w nt

awa nu t vm atu va wtn t

pat ank. Jamat a ntnud pntn an


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10 www.understAndIngwAr.org

AfghANisTAN rePorT 10 | The NorTherN AlliANce Pre PAres for AfghAN elecTioNs | TchAlAKoV | AUgUsT 2013

tw maj n. in n amp a t m wad

tat t pmnn wtn t mmandn

ank t mujadn and tat nw m pat

t vnmnt tabmnt, and n t t t

pna pptn ptan. Pdnt Kaza

has been able to co-opt the most inuential Jamiat-aliated warlords, including Marshal Fahim, Ismail

Kan, and Atta N, tu tat appntmnt and

t u ndwmnt u appntmnt pvd,

w manazn t pptn ptan, man

wm at at am t advat a paamnta

tm and a dvutn pw wtn t unt.

A t tn 2014 appa, t ntnt

t m up t mantan t p n pw

w nd t ppt a nun ann t

pta uad n a pt-Kaza a.

The rst section of this report examines the signicant

pattn bav and n and n t a

dad t pat t, m t svt nvan

t t and a t Taban. T nd tn

amn t t Jamat m t tppn t

Taban t t -tn Pdnt Kaza n 2009.

At least three major inection points are identied over

t u t pat dad: n 2001, 2004-2005,

and 2009. The third and nal section examines the

aanatn Jamat pata Buanuddn rabban

and t pat utu ppt n advan t 2014

tn. Atu t pdnta ntt nt a

presents a very open eld of possible candidates, the

am t pa a k t dmnat t pta

pa. f U.s. pmak kn t mak n

t pta wann n Kabu and t mpatn

pb adp an n 2014, an ntmat

undtandn t ndvdua, t ntnntd

t, and t pta ntnt nta.

JAmIAt From 1979-2001

Jamat- iam, st iam, md a a

atv mdat iamt mvmnt. T up

und w ud b t nttua a btwn

sunn iamt ut and ua tt n t ampu

Kabu Unvt n t 1960 and 1970. ov tm,

Jamat attatd ut m vnmnt-pnd

, bt u and ua, m

ulema in the north and west, and from northern Su

d. T pat ta t pnt-da n t t

ntandn ad, Utad Buanuddn rabban.4

At tudn iam aw and t at KabuUnvt and tavn abad t A-Aza Unvt

n ca t dvp t wt t Mum Btd,

rabban tund t Aantan n 1968 and, n 1972,

become the ocial head of the party.5 An tn Tajk

m Badakan pvn, rabban md pat a

u a n t aut t

at Kabu w am mbd t t Mum

Btd n ept. Knwn a T P,

t bjtv mn k rabban, gam Naz,

and t nttua k sbatua Mjaddd

wa t tab a ma mvmnt tat pntd iam

a a mdn antdt t bt mmunm and t t

tadtnam t Aan vnmnt, mbdd b

t m Daud Kan, un t t kn.6 rabban

dvd tma a ad t pat a a ut

t iam dnta, atu t pat wud n

d mu t da aat n t tu

aant t svt Unn.

Dun t jad aant t svt, Jamat, and

Hizb-i Islami, ranked as one of the most inuential

pta-mta ntwk, tanzim, n t unt.

hzb- iam, dmandn a m vutna iam

appa, bk awa m t Jamat btn and

underscored the rst major fault line between the

dierent mujahideen groups.8 cmpad wt hzb-

iam, Jamat abbd man m nn-da

ua mta ad nt t ank.9 While eective

m a mta pptv, t b tnt appa ad

the combined eect of diluting its ideological Islamist

and, v tm, tntnn t tn apt.10

Atu mutp tn up, nudn Patun

av mpd Jamat at n tm ant, t pat

tan t at wn amn Tajk n ntn

pvn u a Badakan, Taka, Baan, and

Panj n t ntat, and m nttun n

and aund hat n t wt. Dpt atun a


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pw and t t Jamat mmand, u

a ima Kan and Mua Naqbua, n tabn

ba n t ntat and wt t unt dun

t tu aant t svt pd t d t

pat an tn n.14

Maud, ima Kan, and Naqbua w a

inuential anti-communist military commanders

w pd avanz Jamat nt t mt mdab

tan mvmnt t svt-Aan wa. Maud

auab t mt amat mmand wtn

t and t ad t sua- Naza, vntua

bam t mt pwu mta ad wtn t

pat. in dn, pd Jamat aum a adn

n t mujadn vnmnt tat wd t

ut t svt and t Najbua m n

1992.15

fu ban t m wtn Jamat p t t

upatn Kabu and t ntaatn Buanuddn

rabban a t nt pdnt. Atu t pat ad

td t tata a a mdat, ntt iamt

pat tat appad t a wd vat a and u

notables, it had a dicult time exerting command and

an tn n, bt Jamat and hzb- iam

proved more adept in recruiting resistance ghters and

utvatn patna ntwk tan n atuatn a

w-dvpd pta patmn tat na

dd nt tnd bnd t ntn tabn aniam tat vnd b aa aw.11

FActIonAl sPlInterIng durIng And AFter

the sovIet wAr

Bt rabban and t nda wa, Amad sa

Maud, w tn Tajk and sunn Mum, tu

they drew their support from dierent areas of the

unt. Maud dw ba pma m Panj,

Pawan, and Taka pvn n t ntat. T

tabd t sua- Naza, t supvcun t Nt. T un wud vntua

bm t nuu t Ntn Aan ant-

Taban mmand at t t Taban.

Massoud was inuenced by the political ideas of the Tajik

atvt Ta Badak and ppuazd t ntn

of reasserting Tajik ethnic inuence in the country in

nntn wt t pat patm.13 h mta

rAbbAnI FActIon eai i 1970 bairaai. ti i Iai pa a

a aiai ii ai-si,

jai . Af fa f

taia i 2001-2002, Jaia pi, i raai

aiaii aip f f fai.

mAssoud FActIon eai ai f a Aasa ma, i Pajii i f

Jaia pa p a ,

a ai f taji a.

wi i aiaii a

f i i iii f

government since 2001, internal ssures

a a pi pa f.

IsmAIl khAn FActIon A a a fai f iiaJaia pa a i f

jai a, Iai ka. ka

a ai f

Afaia i si a a

regained his efdom after the fall of the

taia i aii a

f i Pajii fai i ka.

PrIncIPAl JAmIAt FActIons, 1979-200112


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nt v t mta adp.16 T am t

k and da apatn tat nabd Jamat

mmand t bud aan and u a td

n t unt a pvdd t man b w t

mmand avd a mnp n vn and

utzd t pta tmatn t pat pvdd tv t wn nd.17

Wtn tnman ima Kan wa n u

pmnnt mmand w utzd pta

aliation with Jamiat to his advantage. The extent to

w ima Kan ubbd t Jamat da

apatn and wd pat dtv wa, and

auab t , mnma.18 hwv, bau t upp

n t Jamat a pvdd Kan wt

tma and u dun t svt and v

waand b tnn a man t an va v

his rivals for poweran aliation with the partys elites

n Kabu vd a uu pup. Antn gutzz

a au dumntd t numb a Jamat

mmand ad mnatd b ima Kan

dv dmnan and mnpzn u

m Kabu t d .19 Pwu na Jamat ad

contending with rivals beneted from developing strong

t t t pat Kabu t t bt t mta

and pta adp n a vn aa.20

ima Kan a umnat ant at abut Jamat

n t watm a. ctan mta mmand,

ntab Maud, pd an una atnp

wt t ptv pta ad. rabban ad

pnt t buk t wa a n Paktan, unnn

ntnatna pnd upp t mta ad

in the eld. Along with other Islamist leaders such

a gubuddn hkmata, Abdu rau saa, and

Mauav yuna Ka, rabban wa n t -

ad Pawa svn, a up w bam tpma mujadn nt Paktan int-sv

intn (isi). hwv, t mant tat rabban

npd n patua at wn amn t

resistance ghters and military commanders claiming to

be loyal to Jamiat. His inuence was circumscribed even

wtn natv pvn Badakan, w Jamat

leaders found it dicult to prevent fragmentation of the

pat ba. rabban wa wd nu t nz

tat an mptn ntazd autt dun t

years of jihad would have been dicult in the extreme

and tat t bt man kpn a mta ad

n bad wa tu vau m patna.2

h ud t upp and wapn vd t t tenhance his inuence with Uzbek and Pashtun ghter

a Aantan.22

hwv, a ud t nt pd v

a t isi upp an t uta wat

pvd a Maud wn pw. Maud

m tan an ntmpa wtn t

pat, pd tat a mbnatn pta

ama and mta aumn tat mad m a

natua va t rabban.23 Aan a Antn

gutzz db Maud tanndn m

a a mta ad t n w n

p ad d t appntmnt b t adp

Jamat- iam a t va ad t pat

n t at nt-at, dpt t tt t

Jamat pta av wt bad n Pawa.24

indvdua tat wud at aum n ptn

n t pt-2001 Kaza vnmnt, nudn

m Mnt Dn and unt ft V

Pdnt Maa fam, untd tmv amn

t ank Maud at wtn Panj

wn t pat. T ta tnn btwn t

ttua adp Jamat and mta mmand

a t Maud, mbnd wt a knd pa

dpndn btwn Jamat t and na

tnmn, wud pv t b an mptant tmt

unnn tu t pat t.25

rabban nun, wv, wand ndab

wt t nt Aantan bd v wa

T t Taban and t nmt t tjad atn, patua tat hzb- iam

mant tat rabban und m atd. Dun

Pdn, vnd v an v ma

ump tat.26 T ant-mmunt atn wtn

Aantan, wtut t un n t atazd b

a tv tan t an utd , atmzd

aund dnt tn tnmn.


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From IdeologIcAl orIgIns to A cAdre oF

PersonAlItIes

fm t a a, unt wtn t pat wa a

dpndnt upn a tat tna . And t,

t svt nvan, t v wa tat nud, and

t t Taban w nt awa nu t

vm atu va wtn t pat ank.

sa av tptv dbatd Jamat v

n dun t a dad t tn.

T advnt t svt nvan ataputd t

iamt pat wtn Aantan t t

natna pt, but t adp t tan

mvmnt mand amntd. T mpttn

tta nt btwn and amn t Jamat-

aliated military commanders

tn mant tat a tn daplatform for unied action remained

unattanab.27 fm t utt,

Jamat n a patm wa wan

jad. A u, t t w a

ud n tn t pptn

at an vn tm. T atn a

patv pta anda, bnd a

tatd d t tab an iam

tat bad upn aa aw, pvd

uv.28

A wt t pta upn

dun t tm, nudn hzb-

iam, da undamntam wud tak a

bakat t t ut pnat tat w atd

aund tn ad and t patna t pvdd.

Pdnt Kaza adp t n t dad n

t Us-d nvan and t amatn pw

wtn pdn a bn but upn t -am

pm. fn a ov r bvatn tatt dvpmnt pta pat nuad bt

political aliation and political segmentation points

t t nnt tnt and wakn Jamat

as an organization that continue to inuence and

aatz t patn tda.29 l aanmnt

wt t na mta mmand tndd

the partys inuence during its years of resistance,

but tmd ntazd mmand and nt and

a unied party structure. Patronage from the center

bam t pma man un na

uppt, but u an w tn puad at t

pn nt v t m-autnmu

tnmn. stn adp qunt tumpdparty organization. The xation of radical Islamist

up n Aantan n tn ad, at tan

n nttutn, nuad a pattn ndvdua

mnpzatn v mata u and v t

man vn. htan av ntd tat t

xation reects one of the historical weaknesses of

t md pta iam a na pmtd b

t Mum Btd and a at adptd b t

Aan btn: t dpndn n

a n amat ad, an am

at tan a m dmata

nttutd anzatn t ad

t.30 T mpa n tn

ad, wv, pdat t a

Aantan t; t unt

md pta iam wa a

mu an adaptatn p-tn

dnam a a dpatu m t.31

in t a ima Kan, t

ntat pna adp

dutd t na da mptu

bnd t pat undn. in t

a gubuddn hkmata hzb-

iam, t atatd a dtatp tat dtmnd

t at t pat tun and tat ntnu t

t da.32 evn Amad sa Maud, nt uua

identied as a traditional strongman, was essential to

t tabmnt and u t sua- Naza

Bau Maud appntmnt a a na am

Jamat wa a nmna tt, td t t atn an nttutna amwk und dtn, w

wud av td adp b dun

pna va and atatn patn.33 in t

a Buanuddn rabban, pna pt

tmmd m ptua, nttua, and iamt

dnta, atatn a t ttua nt

Loose arrangements with

other regional military

commanders extended the

partys inuence during

its years of resistance,

but stymied centralized

command and control and a

unifed party structure.


13/41



Mid- to late-

1960s

Sunni Islamist organizations loosely modeled after the Muslim Brotherhood

develop in Afghanistan in opposition to the ruling elite, primarily among

students and faculty at Kabul University

1967 Jamiat-e Islami emerges under the leadership of Burhanuddin Rabbani

1973 Prominent Islamist leaders flee to Pakistan following Daouds coup

Summer 1974 Rabbani arrives in Pakistan, builds opposition against Gulbuddin Hekmatyar

Mid-1970s Hekmatyar leads breakaway party Hizb-i Islami

April 1978 War breaks out in Afghanistan

January 1980 At the recommendation of Jamiat, six parties, including Jamiat and Hizb-i

Islami, form an alliance, the Ettehad-i Islami Baray Azadi-yi Afghanistan

(Islamic Union for the Liberty of Afghanistan), though tensions remainbetween the two groups

1984 Massoud establishes Shura-e Nazar without the sponsorship of Jamiat

leadership

1992 Abdul Rashid Dostums Uzbek military forces unite with Jamiat forces against

Hekmatyar and take control of Kabul. Civil war breaks out between Jamiat

and Hizbi Islami, with continuously shifting alliances

December

1992

Rabbani elected president by a council of 1,400 members after briefly serving

as an appointed president beginning in June

1994 Dostum and his Junbesh party (est. 1992) ally with Hekmatyar against Jamiat

forces; reduces Jamiats influence in northern Afghanistan

1996 Establishment of the Northern Alliance/Northern Front. Hizb-i Islami

incorporated into Jamiat government, but infighting persists

September

1996

The Taliban takes control of Kabul with Pakistani support

February 1998 Despite alliance, Jamiat launches offensive against Junbesh

1998 Taliban take control of north from Jamiat

September

2001

Massoud assassinated

November

2001

Fall of Taliban; re-launch of Northern Alliance. Jamiat-e Islami re-emerges,

dominates new government and sidelines Junbesh

JAmIAt chronology to 2001


14/41



awa pataad Jamat u dad.34

Tat Jamat d aund ntwk tan

more than a specic Islamist ideology or a particular

pta patm ta t an undtandn t

tanzim at ptzatn t mta pw. Tat, pap m tan an t, p t pan

w Jamat a amntd tn v t nun

a and, b t am tkn, w at wad-

tund-ptan u a Maa fam and Atta

Muhammad Noor found it tactically eective to appeal

t t ntn pat and m bad mujadn

dat. A ov r ntd b t atn

tt wt t svt Unna tm wn Jamat

wa n t andant tan t mujadn

ud n p t uvv tu t tnn

a pta anzatn w nt waknd b

t wn ntna dvn.35 Maud auab am

t t bdn m t ntna dvn,

but utmat Jamat nv dvpd a patv

pat patm. T pat tndd t ut n

a pat bau Maud mta u,

but t v nd t -pt mta mmand and

ntwk, nudn t w w nt tna

Tajk, mant a na dutn an vutna

iamt amwk pat patm. Wa iam

d ma av vd a t na mnt

pat n, t wa apd ubnd b t,

more tactical priorities, such as military eectiveness

and t abt t d ut patna. intad, a knd

of supercial politicization developed whereby

tnmn u a ima Kan pdd t at

t Jamat n an unn t tw

amntd pta-mta tan n pa k

wtn Aantan.36

T a ima Kan utat bt t uof Jamiats increasingly expansive inuence and its

wakn n tm t ak t nta anzatn.

l aanmnt wt a tnmn w

na t av t pta bjtv tan,

b t tan aant t mmunt aant t

Taban, but t tndd t dua an but m

ntazd pta anzatn tat vnd pat

t a w a ppa tnmn. T pattn a

d tu nt t pnt da, wt utzd pta and

mta pnat ubdnatn pat patna

and pat at n t v t wn nd.

ln dtbutn u patna av nt bn

bad-bad, but na naw and dp, mtd ta andu pa.37

From the FAll oF the tAlIbAn to the 2009

electIon

in t pt-Taban a, Jamat vvd m a

tadtna tanzim t a pat amt nt bad n

patna pt. A t m ntwk t

mujadn and tmv a pta

pat, ov r bvatn n t at 1980

abut t ppnt Aan pt t v twadcontinual segmentation and loose aliation continued

t d tu. T a pttn and an tat

Jamat pnd wa a dtd at ann at

t m va n ntatn b a maj

election, rather than reecting any sustained attempt

at budn a nun pat pptn. A Tma

rutt a bvd, tn nw pat w aund

without any hint of programmatic dierences and by

ad w w mp nt t numb n n t

d pat. T pn amd pw tnaan wt t w dd p u pwwa

t man b w u va wa, and ntnu t

b, ud. in tat n, t pat vd a a

anzd man t attan and tan pw.38 Aan

often proved to be articial political constructs utilized

t-tm an, uua n advan an tn.

The Panjshiri Trio: Next Gen Jamiat-Aliated Leaders

Twn vnt, t dat Amad sa Maud and t

attak sptmb 2001 tat pptatd t U.s.-d

intervention, profoundly aected the partys fortunes

on t n and, t dat Maud t Jamat

pta ad and udd. on t t, t

U.s. ntvntn nud t utmat u t

Northern Allianceof which Jamiat and its aliates

w t pm mntaant t Taban.


15/41



Maud aanatn at t and Jdanan a-

Qaeda aliates threatened to plunge morale among the

Ntn Aan at a ua tm, wn nw nt

w bn pnd n t nt n t batt aant t

Patun-dmnatd Taban. yt an p vt

wa a m tan. Maud sua- Naza, supv cun t Nt, ad untnd a

a knd paa mta ntwk wtn Jamat, w

t tnb dn t rabban adp t

pat.

gna Mammad fam, Maud a utnant

and a mmb Panj wn t Jamat pat,

wud b td amn Maud nn t

v a u n t U.s.-d ntvntn tat

nud. fam, wv, akd Maud ama

pta aumn, and pvd unab t kp

Jamat m amntn n t a da t nw

interim Afghan administration. Nor could he eectively

nt t hazaa, Tajk, and Uzbk wad w

uppt Maud ad manad t a aant t

Taban. Man t mn w nw -amn t

old efdoms in the wake of victory. The fragmentation

wtn t Ntn Aan wa mpundd b

t atn Buanuddn rabban, t ntna

pdnt Aantan m 1992-1996. h m

admntatn ad pvd a au, and t, dpt

unppuat wt man Patun mmunt, ptd

to be reinstated in his former position of inuence upon

t a t Taban.39

rabban pptn t t matn a bad-

bad vnmnt tabd n t UN-pnd

Bonn meetings reected a larger ssure within Jamiat

between two dierent generations of its leaders. The so-

ad yun Tuk, pntd b Panj at

Maud, pmnnt amn tm yunu Qann,Mammad fam, and Abdua Abdua, nta

pvd m wn t wk wt t ntnatna

mmunt and wt Pdnt Kaza n t matn

a atn vnmnt tan t d uad

Jamat. A Maud m pkman, Qann wa

a dt ntat and d t datn n ba t

sua- Nza at t Bnn ummt.

rabban, w wa nt a patpant at t Bnn tak n

gman, attmptd t da t pdn t m a

nw vnmnt. Amn man tat, ntd

that any interim government reect the percentage

Patun n t Aan ppuatn dumntd

n t at Aan nu datn bak t t 1970, agure potentially much lower than most contemporary

tmat t da.40 A ad dmntatd n t

1990, rabban wa nt abv pan t natna

p t wud v wn ntt. Kaza

wv, nzd t mptan un av

wt t un Jamat adp a w a Jamat

pata. T wa patua ua Kaza wt

pt t Mammad Qam fam, nw t d-at

mta ad t Ntn Aan w ad takn

nt Kabu n t wann da t Taban

m. Dpt avn bn atd, ntatd, and

ad ttud und fam d w vn

n t rabban-d, Tajk-ntd vnmnt n t

1990, Kaza damd Ntn Aan ad b

avn n Kabu wtut an amd t Patun

tbmn.41

fam, Qann, and Abdua wud n t aum

t t mt ua cabnt pt n t nw

regimeDefense, Interior, and Foreign Aairswith

fam at apptnn m a nd tt

tat ft V Pdnt.42 T wnn t

n wt a Patun utv and t UN-bakd

administration gave them considerable inuence in the

ntutn t ntm pw-an da and

dbat v damamnt tat wd.

Atu wd ad n ntnatna p a a

tumvat un, m mdn Jamat ad

aumn t mant Maud natnat a,

tn dvn and d upn ptd. Nn t m Ntn Aan tnmnMammad

fam, ima Kan, and Uzbk ad Abdu rad

Dtum amn tmwa patua nttd n

tabn a nun natna Aan am, n

tat wud av qud t damamnt and -

ntatn t pvat mta.43 fam a a a

a mta utnant t Maud ad nvnd m


16/41



tat nt t natn am wa vta t t nt

t unt wt a and t t pttn Tajk

t ntt.

in t a btwn va pw n vau ntn

pvnmt ntab btwn t mmand

a t Tajk na and Jamat ad m Bak

pvn, Mammad Atta N, and t t Uzbk

na Abdu DtumKabu-bad Jamat t u

a Qann and fam, w ntd t nt and

dn mnt, w n a ptn t p u

Atta advanta.44 At t tm, t w aud

pn mntn dvn amn t ntn Uzbk

pptn and unnn ad t Atta n t p

un tnd u a Maza- sa t

atn b t upmn la Ja t t a

tantna admntatn.45 Wtn t mnt

tmv, ad u a fam w ntu

lling senior appointments with former colleagues of

a ma tn and apa bakund.46 T

a dnam tabd Jamat t a dmnant

wtn t un pta a n Kabu. in at a

JAMIAT-E ISLAMI Founded by Burhanuddin Rabbani prior tothe Soviet invasion; gained its primary

following among Tajiks in the north and

west, though it always included a minority

of Pashtuns. An Islamist party created to

resist secularism and communism, it

gradually took a more moderate, big tent

approach. This effectively drew in new

recruits but resulted in limited

coordination among semi-autonomous

factions.

HIZB-I WAHDAT Established under Iranian pressure in1989; result of the unification of

Afghanistans rival Hazara factions. Hizb-i

Wahdat rose to national prominence

during the civil war, when it seized parts

of Kabul and Mazar-e Sharif in alliance

with Massouds Jamiat-e Islami.

JUNBESH-I MILLI Party led by Uzbek warlord General AbdulRashid Dostum from 1992 onwards.

Emerged as a reaction to President

Najibullahs re-centralization efforts and

Pashtun nationalist influence in the north.

Dostum, a former Communist general, has

long maintained horizontal networks with

other rival factions, including Jamiat-e

Islami and Ittehad-i Islami, but will remain

a reliable ally only insofar as other parties

dont affect his personal influence.

ITTEHAD-I ISLAMI Led by Abdul Rasoul Sayyaf, a PashtunIslamist educated in Egypt and

considered, alongside Rabbani, as one of

the founders of Afghanistans Islamist

movement. Ittehad never commanded a

large following among ethnic Afghans, but

managed to attract significant Saudi and

Pakistani support and recruit large

numbers of Arab commanders during the

countrys various wars.

PrIncIPAl northern AllIAnce PArtIes48


17/41



rabban, Qann, Abdua, and fam wud a

extend their respective bases of power in dierent areas

t vnmnt; Qann and Abdua wud t

their eorts to controlling the Parliament, Fahim would

d nt v t mta, and rabban wud

vntua aum adp v t PdntaPaa ntatn wt t Taban.

The First National Election of 2004

Wtut a ma n t a a t

tantna admntatn, rabban pub amd

t b ud n tanmn Jamat m a mtazd

anzatnn pdmnant d b Maud

sua- Nazat a nun pta pat n advan

of Afghanistans rst democratic election.47 Dpt

t wn dnantmnt wt t adp t

pat and t m Ntn Aan tnmn n

t nw admntatn, Jamat wa wd ptd

t mmand a zab nttun n t natna

elections. Nevertheless, party leaders found it dicult

t tt n a a u atn n t at mnt

2003 and a mnt 2004.

Disgruntled by presidential and international eorts to

ub t pw tu damamnt and mntn

eorts particularly in the north former mujahideen

mmand, bt Jamat and nn-Jamat ak,

und mmn au n t mpant. Atu

Aan aw tna bad t patpatn

amd up n natna pt, u pv w

dicult in practice to enforce. In October 2003, while

Pdnt Kaza wa tavn utd t unt,

Ntn Aan ad mt t du t pbt

wtdawn t uppt t pdnt and

elding an opposition candidate in the elections. Many

t m Ntn Aan atn wud nt t a ma pta pat und t nw

nttutn, but t d, nma mujadn

ntwk nta mand ntat, t adp

tutu a unand.

Bickering among the dierent factions, however, meant

tat n anddat at t tm wa td ndd.49

indvdua ad u a fam, avn avd

ndab wat tu a a mnt

n vnmnt, w quk t dn pub tat t

pup t mtn wa t a nt qutn

Kaza autt. Atu tmat va a t t

mantud fam pna nt wt at t tm

wt m ann upwad a bn U.s. dat tt dubt tat abt t ant patna

and apppat vnmnt and tu ptn

as Minister of Defense made him considerably auent

and a a tat and jau wtn tn

wn pat.50

in t mnt adn up t t tn, m jad

ad wud qunt nvk t tat mn an

pptn atn aant Kazaad nudn

rabban, ima Kan, and Abdu rad Dtumbu

t tv nabt t a aund a n

atnatv anddat waknd t baann

position. The signicant authorities granted to the

utv v t atv ban vnmnt n

t nw Aan cnttutn tnd t n

una, but t dd nt tanat nt ntd

pta atn. T tnt va t wad

and m mujadn ntnt appd wa t

tat vkn t uppt t pdnt and,

b tnn, tatnn t unt admntatna

coalition of dierent ethnic factions in Afghanistan

av dmnatd b t Ntn Aanwt

dntatn. f t pwbk t m

Ntn Aan, t tat pt-ut a pvn

an eective bargaining tactic and one that could serve

tm w n t ad-up t t 2014 tn, pvdd

a mban unt amn tm pva. A w b

dud n a at tn, Atta nvnn t

Maza summt Ntn ad n Janua 2013

ut an a attmpt t dmntat pta

tnt tu a w ntn dat.

fa vnmnt dntatn av nv bn

insignicant for Karzai, who met with Northern

Aan ad and m mujadn mmand

a w mnt b t vt t a t dmand

and w at ntd tat t wad w pat

t at t unt.51 Wtut a a majt


18/41



vt, t pdnt knw wud b d nt

a nd und vtn and mt un t k

appan t vnn mandat. Dpt pat

tann, m t ad kw ptd

pmnnt ptn n Kabu n Kaza wa -

td. Kaza, b t am tkn, nzd tatkpn man t wad t Kabu ud

pv a uu k n t autt utd t.

ima Kan, amp, wud at b nanatd

a t nt Mnt Wat and en.

in an aknwdmnt t dmand

inuence and for recognition, the patriarch of Jamiat,

Buanuddn rabban, mujadn vtan u a

ima Kan and Abdu saa, and un Ntn

Aan ad u a fam and Qann pub

pd t uppt Kaza andda.52 fam

wa wd ptd t man n ptn a n

Kaza v pdnta unnn mat; t ntn

Tajk ad wa bbn av t av gna

Bmua Kan, a w Maud at and Tajk

mmand, tak pa at t Mnt Dn.

hwv, wt u t pa b t dadn t

da andda, Kaza ddd t dp fam

m t tkt n av Amad Za Maud, a

un bt t an . Maud wa vn

at t tm a Aantan ambaad t Mw and,

nvnnt, wa Buanuddn rabban n-n-aw.

Pdnt Kaza, und pu m ntnatna

a t dtan admntatn m Ntn

Alliance-aliated warlords and publicly to espouse

natna damamnt, ptd t ptnta k

Maud and Kam Ka, a hazaa ad

hzb- Wadat, a tw unnn mat.53 in bt

candidates Karzai hoped to stave o the opposition of the

m jad b n mn t rabban,

and t mutanu wn v t hazaa tnup.54 T dn wud av u nqun,

nt n t daa tat t anddat

tw t pat nt, but t ndab tat t

pdud btwn Kaza and fam.

in t atmat, t Ntn Aan ad t a

n a mmn anddat amn t twnt-t tat

nta tppd wad. Qann, tn vn a

t eduatn Mnt, amd t av t bakn

fam and t t Jamat ad n t Panj

wn, nudn n mnt Abdua Abdua, a

w a man m mujadn ad u a gna

Daud Kan Kunduz pvn.55

T mv vad apt wtn t un natn Jamat btwn

t Panj T and Maud un bt.

A tn t a n Aan pt, nt pta

amp ad pakn t t t abut pb da

t b bkd tuut t untan and ntv

pa. fam and Qann w n ua ntat

wt t pdnt. Pta vtan u a rabban

and saa w a av nvvd n ntatn

but ntnud t wtd pub uppt an

patua anddat.56 l tan a wk b t

tn, rabban annund uppt Kaza

and n-n-aw, Amad Za, tn t ntt

t tabt and ut t unt. on aan,

rabban dpad tndn t puu pta nd

tat w vwd a utmat advantau m and

ntmat. Jamat ad awa av

utd m t Tajk-dmnatd ntn pvn

and from the former mujahideen networks of ghters

and mmand; t nttun w nw

pt btwn t amn t uppt Kaza a t

ntunn anddat and t bakn Qann.

Although Rabbanis inuence was never absolute within

Jamat, ndmnt pd u t uttandn

ntt n Kaza av.57 Qann, w ad ndd

m a mmb t a pptn n avn

vnmnt, ad bn aun a m dntazd

and dazd tm tat wud ntan t a

pw vtd n t pdn. T t wud ptnd

a greater ssure within Jamiat in the ensuing years,btwn -td pptn ptan w ut

t nvt at pw n a paamnta tm

and former mujahideen commanders, who beneted

at m t p t nta tat appaatu ud

pvd.58


19/41



2004-2008: A Fragmented Opposition

T nun tat nd n t ad-up t and

atmat t 2004 pdnta tn utat

the paradoxical uidity of Afghan politics at this time

a w a t nnt dt. A pta pptnpat mumd n t a, tn n t m

ndvdua ad undn pat aan aund

t wn pn, wtut atua jttnn t

aliation with their mother organizations, such as

Jamat- iam, t pvu mta ntwk.

Qann attmptd t t up wn pat, Hizb-i

Afghanistan Newin, Nw Aantan Pat. At t

same time, he was still ocially politically aliated

wt t Maud bt, w wud tn an

attmpt t un n t tn aant Kaza.

59

in2005, Qann attmptd t atn ant,

m but, pptn aan n t m t

Natna Undtandn fnt, Jabahai Tafahim-Millie,

mad up at at tn pta pat. T, t, n

dntatd n t a ntna quabbn. Aan

mmntat w quk t nt tat t Natna

Undtand fnt mp mmkd t mptn

t m Ntn Aan (wt ntab ptn

u Kam Ka and gna Dtum, bt wm

w vn n vnmnt at t tm). A u, t wa a

tmpa pta ntut, tabd t bb

m at aad t paamnta tn b

baann wt t vnmnt, at tan t at a a

paamnta pptn a an.60

Qann wud n t n nt n atwad

with Rabbani, an indication of the constant ebb and ow

bakawa atn wtn Jamat. h bquatd t

rabban adp t pptn n an

uppt a a anddat spak t lw hu,

Wolesi Jirga.61 Ant ma aund UntdNatna fnt wa ubqunt md n 2007,

wt rabban at t m and Amad Za Maud, t

serving as rst vice president, as a prominent member.

T fnt wa bd a a pta b tat but

tt mmb t unt vnmnt, m

mmunt, and ant-mmunt t k ta

changes that allowed for greater Parliamentary inuence

and ntant n Pdnt Kaza pw. Man

t mmb t Untd fnt, nudn rabban

w t at at t tm ndvdua w t

dnd wtn t admntatn. T Untd fnt

mmb nudd Amad Za Maud, w td

a mtvatn t uptu wt Kaza v tw pa m and t pdnt pn

ntatn wt t Taban w ad bn vn

as rst vice president, and Water and Energy Minister

ima Kan.62 Maud am nntn t rabban

helped ensure that the rst vice president nevertheless

mand pta and wt Jamat pata. h

selection as rst vice president, however, encouraged a

t wt Mammad fam v w wud aum t

mant Amad sa Maud a n t Panj

and pnt Tajk ntt at t n-mt v

vnmnt.

Karzais Re-election in 2009

spt wtn t Untd fnt n advan t 2009

pdnta tn appad mnt b t

bnnn t pn pd anddat tatn

n Ap 25t.63 Bkn amnt t fnt mmb

mant tat an annunmnt t nmn, D

Abdua Abdua, wa dad m fbua unt

Ap.64 T up d a, wv, am t da at

t annunmnt, wn Maa fam ma

vd pptn t Abdua andda and tw

uppt t t numbnt pdnt.65 fam wud

at jn Pdnt Kaza tkt a n tw

unnn mat.66 T amntatn wtn t fnt

utat t mptan tmn wtn Aan

pt and Pdnt Kaza pna. Atu

dun btwn t tw ad bn umd

mnt, Pdnt Kaza ma -ptd fam

t bm unnn mat jut p t t dadnfor candidate nominations. Although Karzai beneted

m t ntna dvn tat w aad wtn

t fnt, t tmn fam -ptn nud

mamum daa wtn t pptn ank

oering them little time to re-group or to renegotiate

wt fam. f t an, Pdnt Kaza k t

bd tm unt jut p t t sptmb anddat


20/41



eective segments of the Afghan armed forces, whose

mmand w a t m pna and nt t an

natna nttutn. At t am tm, fam a t

tat patna pvdd a ta man b w

continued to build his inuence. Once Fahim, and other

wad u a Dtum wm Kaza ud awa wtpm, ptd ut t Untd fnt, t pptn

atn apat and t mmntum. T upt

this episode is that co-option of inuential warlords

has been President Karzais most eective antidote to

t tat pd b pta ppnnt. An n

u t Kaza, patua a Patun u

will almost certainly be inuenced by the success of this

md ptkn a tn dvn.

Nvt, n t u ampan Abdua

manad t tan t uppt tan Jamat

mnt, nudn tat t pwu gvn

Bak, Atta Muammd N, t Maud bt

and Buanuddn rabban. Tat uppt, and t

wdpad aatn uptn and vt aud, wa

sucient to create the conditions for a second round

run-o between Karzai and Abdullah. The politica

untant tat utd m t ak an utt

vt wa p wat t Kaza ampan ad

pd t avd. T mnt an wt t Untd

Natn, t indpndnt etn cmmn (iec)and t eta cmpant cmmn (ecc) v

aatn vt aud d t t dun a un-

o in November in that year. Abdullah Abdullah pulled

out of the race just prior to the run-o, citing the

mpbt a pa n a nd und vtn.70

spuatn an ampant a t Abdua mtvatn.

Abdua pntatv, n patua Buanuddn

rabban, ad bn ntatn wt Pdnt Kaza

bnd d d v a ptnta pw-an da

m u b Abdua annund wtdawarabban wa umd t av ntd tat n

n b ntad n a cabnt pt and tat Atta N b

awd t man a vn Bak. Nt d at

the time was willing to conrm the precise parameters

t pw-an da wt Abdua bwn

ut wa a ut t au t u. Ad t

Abdua dun t pd td t m fn

tatn dadn b makn pn

t 2014 tn pub knwn.

The ssures in 2009 centered around three factional

dvn wtn Jamat: rabban (w vntua

upptd t andda m fn Mnt

Abdua Abdua), fam (-ptd b Pdnt

Kaza t bm unnn mat w ad bn

ppd t Abdua andda), and Amad Za

Maud (w a n ad pd an ntt n

puun wn pta patm and wa kw

ppd t Abdua Abdua).67 D. Abdua, t

former Foreign Aairs Minister who had been Ahmad

sa Maud pan dun t jad and taddd

t tn dvd wt Patun and Tajk t, wa

nt m a ma mmb t Untd fnt. in

d t u andda, wa d t jn n

d t b td b t up.68 At a tm wn Kaza

wa an pu ntna and tna v t

w pa m and muntn van auat,

his choice of Fahim reected an oft-used tactic. Karzai

a qunt pntd pptn b bnn nt

t d mmb Jamat and t k tn up,

b un tm wt mnt appntmnt, bun

da, and t n ptn n vnmnt.

T atnp btwn fam and Kaza ma av

bn v tand m 2004-2009, but t wa nv

bkn.69 T dnam tpa Aan pt and

it reects the mutual interests that bound these two

ad tt. fam t ntd man t mt

Photo 1 | AbdullAh AbdullAh sPeAks At A JAmIAtconFerence. (source: FAcebook)


21/41



JAmIAt electIon tImelIne


22/41



td t atn amntatn.

T 2010 Paamnta tn n sptmb, mad

b aatn aud, dd nt ut n a a majt

t d.74 Bt p-vnmnt and pptn

ad a amd t b ab t unt n at at 100uppt n t 249-at lw hu Paamnt

but ndvdua at w pn t wtn d

t mp mann unddd.75 Atu Abdua

manad t bn tt man t un, m

tnat Jamat t wtn hp and can

atnnudn Amad Wa Maud, yunu

Qann, and m Natna Dtat sut

(NDs) c Amua sa t, t, tud t

dvp an atv m anda and

t appa t a bad-bad, mut-

tn majt.76

Other Jamiat-aliated heavyweights

u a fam and ima Kan, w

vn n t vnmnt and w

nt nnd t bm mmb. Atta

N, at n tm v va n

uppt Abdua, ad ntab

tnd dwn ant-Kaza t

A taatn ntatd b

t nta vnmnt aant autt n Bak pvn a

umd t av nvnd m tat

mata and pta ntt w btt vd

b adptn a mdatd tan. At a tm wn man

pvna vn w bn dmd, mand

nnd n pt a vn Bak.77

Kaza tnqu ndvdua -ptn and t

constant inghting among Jamiati grandees meant

tat Jamat-upptd pptn aan m 2002-2009 tud t ndu. Jamat pta nvvmn

in the years since the fall of the Taliban reected this

n and pat : t ppt tn wud

split the partys aliates between pro-government

and vau pptn atn, a tu nt

uvdpndn upn wt n wa n pw

in the government, or whether ones inuence was

Mnt d wpn ta m a t a

u t mpa btwn t tw mn. rabban, t

md, pvd mu m w n t ntat v tt-

-tat pta p, w Kaza wud av bn

a m amnab t tan nttutna m.71

T ua n t 2009 tn Pdnt

Kaza wa tw-d: nvat u ppnnt b

ntatn wt tm m a ptn tnt and

avd a nttd pta utm at a t. on a

nd und vtn appad k, t Tajk pptn

ptan wtn t Abdua amp vtd t

ntatn wt t numbnt m. hwv, n

t u dn t a undmnd an n

mmn pup. f t k

Abdua tat amd t av ad

n t ndav, t pd

tat wa t m a nttutd

pptn wtn Paamnt. T

tn bak and t btwn t

tabmnt and t pptn,

and btwn t utv and t

atu, bad n t pptn

pta an a pvn

t b a knd n and pat

amn Tajk ad dun

t pvu dad. At tppn

dwn m t a, and n a mv

mnnt Qann n 2004,

Abdua tabd wn pptn aan, Omid

Wa Taghir, t hp and can Pat. Pdtab,

rabban Jamat bam n t adn pat

t aan.72

hwv, D. Abdua hp and can pat

suered a severe setback when President Karzai wooed

n t adn mmb, Buanuddn rabban,bak nt t vnmnt d.73 At Pdnt

Kaza appntd t Jamat vtan t b t ad

t cnutatv Pa Ja n 2010 and at

caman t h Pa cun, hp and

can tud t pnt a untd pptn nt.

Abdua bttd t pa nutatn n Jun

tat a. rabban adp t pdn n

Karzais techniques ofindividual co-option and

the constant infghting

among Jamiati grandees

meant that Jamiat-

supported opposition

alliances from 2002-

2009 struggled to endure.


23/41



From rAbbAnIs AssAssInAtIon to the 2014

electIon

The Martyr of Peace: Rabbanis Assassination

Tn a at t aanatn Amad sa

Massoud, another towering gure of the Northern

Aan wa kd. A Taban mpatz an

pv n tuban and amn t uppt

natn tak aanatd rabban n m

n Kabu. Mu t u uundn Buanuddn

rabban aanatn at t and t Taban

ntd upn t vnt mpat n t nn pa

ntatn and t adp vaan t t n t

h Pa cun (hPc)an ad anzatn

w mmb w appntd b t vnmnt and

ad wt advann pa ntatn wt tnunt.

hwv, rabban dat t a an mptant

vaan wtn Jamat. Atu rabban wa nv a

mujadn mmandand at tm td at dd

wt Amad sa Maud sua- Naza wa

n t w vtan bt t svt and v

wa tat mantand tn nk wt t pdnta

paa, wt t uma (a n t nt), and wt

m jad mmand.81 rabban nv andt tatu pd a pdnt t unt n

t 1990, but pad an utzd bnd t

n a bt a pta bk and pdn pata

t vau ntpta wtn Jamat. Bau

ad nv u ad m wt t t Kaza

vnmnt wt t Jamat-d pptn n t

vau nanatn, wa w ptnd t at a an

ntmda btwn t tw amp.

rabban, wv, ad nt mad adquat ppaatnt t u at t tm vnt dm.

in Janua 2011, t pat ad annund t ntntn

t d a pat n t t a nw natn

adp wtn Jamat. hwv, patd da

and rabban ppnt nn t a ptn n

ad ad am t tpvntd u a nav m

mn t utn. At t tm aanatn,

n-n-aw, Amad Za Maud, wa vn a

bn umbd. T dvdn n btwn t

tw up wa ndb pu, wt ndvdua

qunt tn t at m n d t t

t.

hwv, t ntant -tadn and dtnbtwn and amn Jamat atn d nt

bu t at tat t tw amp w ntwnd

b t d jnt nm manamnt,

ad ptn pw and t w t mantan t

tatu qu.78 T p-Kaza amp and wat Qann

abd t a pptn av bn kd n a

knd mbt atnp n t vnmnt

a a. At vau tm t atnp a

pnd tan, but t mutua ntt n jnt

gain was never severed. Thomas Bareld aptly observes

tat n Aan pt pptunm ud awa b

untd n t undmn an t m (iamm,

natnam, am, t.).79 T ba pm a

aatzd t atnp btwn t pdnt

and mt mmb t Tajk-dmnatd pat n t

dad at t a t Taban.80

T tnt t pat pat dnta dd nt

tanat nt t dvpmnt nt a mdn pta

anzatn. A tn t a n Aan pt,

pnat dmnatd t andap; tt dtntn

wa mad btwn Jamat mmb and mpatz.

T, k Qann, Maud, and Abdua, w ptd

to create their own spin-o factions were essentially

shuing and re-shuing the composition of their new

pat amnt t am t pa. T ntnut

made it dicult for the party to transcend previous

ethnic boundaries and the specic concerns of its

mujadn vtan; watv natnat apatn

Maud ma av ad p t aanatn w

not eectively taken up by his successors. The legacy oft pat, wt pt t t ant-svt and ant-Taban

dnta, mntd Jamat dtntvn amn

Aan pta atn. hwv, n t pt-Taban

a t mpdd t pat tanndn bnd

paa, na, and tn nn.


24/41



whos who Among JAmIAt-AFFIlIAted leAders, PArt I

ABDULLAH ABDULLAH

CURRENT POST:

Opposition Leader, National Coalition of Afghanistan

Opposition Candidate, 2009 Presidential Election

RELEVANT POSTS:

Minister of Foreign Affairs (2001-2006)

ETHNICITY:

Mixed Tajik and Pashtun, b. Kabul

ACTIVITIES DURING THE TALIBAN ERA:

Advisor and physician to Ahmad Shah Massoud

MARSHAL QASIM FAHIM

ISMAIL KHAN

AHMED WALI MASSOUD

AHMAD ZIA MASSOUD

CURRENT POST:

First Vice President (2009-present)

RELEVANT POSTS:

Minister of Defense and Vice President (2002-2004)

ETHNICITY:

Tajik, b. Panjshir Province


Head of Intelligence & Minister for National Security, Northern

Alliance

CURRENT POST:

Minister of Water and Energy (2005-present)

RELEVANT POSTS:

Governor of Herat Province (2002-2004)

ETHNICITY:

Tajik, b. Herat Province


Fled to neighboring Iran, later captured by the Taliban

CURRENT POST:

Opposition Politician, National Front of Afghanistan

RELEVANT POSTS:

Ambassador to the United Kingdom (2002-2006)

ETHNICITY:

Tajik, younger brother of Ahmad Shah Massoud


Member, Northern Alliance

CURRENT POST:Opposition Leader, National Front of Afghanistan

RELEVANT POSTS:

Vice President (2004-2009)

Ambassador to Russia (2001-2004), later extended toMoldova, Belarus, Armenia

ETHNICITY: Tajik, b. Ghazni Province




25/41



whos who Among JAmIAt-AFFIlIAted leAders, PArt II

ATTA MOHAMMAD NOOR

YUNUS QANOONI

BURHANUDDIN RABBANI

SALAHUDDIN RABBANI

AMRULLAH SALEH

CURRENT POST:

Governor of Balkh Province (2004-present)

RELEVANT POSTS:

Governor of Balkh ProvinceSupporter of Abdullah Abdullah in 2009

ETHNICITY: Tajik, b. Balkh Province


Commander of 7th Corps, Northern Alliance who, along withAbdul Rashid Dostum, drove the Taliban out of Mazar-i Sharif

CURRENT POST:

Minister of Parliament for Kabul (2010-present)

Member, National Front of Afghanistan

RELEVANT POSTS:Minister of Education (2002-2004)

Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament (2005-2010)

Leader, New Afghanistan Party (now defunct)

ETHNICITY: Tajik, b. Panjshir Province



CURRENT POST: Deceased

RELEVANT POSTS:Chairman, High Council for Peace and Reconciliation

Leader, Jamiat-i Islami

President, Islamic State of Afghanistan (1992-1996)

ETHNICITY: Tajik, b. Badakhshan Province


One of the leaders of the Northern Alliance and head of

Jamiat-i Islami, worked closely with Ahmad Shah Massoud and

Mohammad Fahim against the Taliban

CURRENT POST:

Chairman, High Council for Peace & Reconciliation (2012-present)

RELEVANT POSTS:

Ambassador to Turkey (2010-2012)

ETHNICITY: Tajik, b. Kabul


Worked for Saudi ARAMCO in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE,

later attended business school in London

CURRENT POST:Opposition Leader, Afghanistan Green Party

RELEVANT POSTS:

Head of Intelligence, National Directorate of Security(2004-2010)

ETHNICITY:

Tajik, b. Panjshir Province


Appointed by Ahmad Shah Massoud to head the Northern

Alliances liaison office in Dushanbe, Tajikistan


26/41



t atn ad t pat, n a t da-t-

day aairs.82 Atu Amad Za wa vwd a a

k anddat t pa rabban, a w wk at

rabban dat t Jamat pat adp annund

t tn saauddn rabban, rabban dt

n, a t ntm ad t pat.

fm Aantan ambaad t Tuk,

saauddn wa wd add a a a n

tat pad ma t at mm and tat ud

a t pat atu.83 in fbua 2012, saauddn

annund tat a nw Jamat Pat cn wud n

select the next ocial leader. After nearly six months

pta wann and pttatn m man

t n mmb, Pdnt Kaza t appnt

saauddn t at m ptn a ad

t h Pa cun.84 At t tm pubatn,

rabban n man n ptn a ntm pat

ad.85

The Four Horsemen of The Opposition

Wt Abdua atn mpn an and Amad Za

pta ppt n t wan, t annunmnt t

another Jamiat-aliated opposition front led by Ahmad

Za Maud wa nt upn. T tabmnt

nw pptn pat and aantpa

nanatn pvu upn, mpd

ma t papvd t b a uu tat

bt Qann n 2004 and Abdua n 2009 wn t

ad pta manazatn. N dd t atn

t nw pat dmand tat t v t t t

t mt anzatn Jamat.

T atn u pptn aan wa

pupu tmd t nd wt ppaatn

upmn natna tn and t an t mpt paamnta vt. in Nvmb 2011aad

t pdnt la JaAmad Za Maud

annund t nanatn t Natna fnt

Aantan.86 T Natna fnt d t

pptn aan t am nam d b rabban n

2007. T dun v t matn u an

aan ad pdd rabban dm, wt t d

pta vtan nuan n-n-aw t badn

t atn tn ba b t ma aun

Atu t tud t u Patun uppt

Dtum and Maqqq, upptv Kaza n t

2009 tn but wn dnantd wt t

respective levels of inuence, signed on as members oft fnt.87

Maud tun ad bn wavn n

pamnt a v pdnt n av fam, a

ndtn ut abatd b rabban dat. A

atn ad t pat, ad bn wd ptd t

tak v t adp Jamat, n t b pad v

n av rabban n, saauddn.88 T naw

ubt pat and upn n t nw Natna

fnt n mpan wt t pd und

t bakanzatn tat Jamat ntnud t pn n

t wak rabban dat. l tan u wk at,

Abdua Abdua annund t tanmatn

hp and can nt t ant pptn aan,

t Natna catn Aantan. T Natna

catn wa a b attmpt at badnn t appa

hp and can b pandn t Patun and

Uzbk mmbp, atu t a nudd pmnnt

Jamat mmb u a m spak Paamnt

yunu Qann and Amad Wa Maud. Atu

Abdua nw atn md Za Maud

Natna fnt n t am t uppt a paamnta

tm n Aantan tat dvvd pw awa m

t utv, a wnn t tak t t Taban, and

dmand ta m, t tw nv md.89

Nt Abdua n Za Maud av v pd

t knd tatu tat awd Buanuddn rabban

to call for unity amongst the Jamiat-aliated opposition

up dun t atn t Untd fnt.

sa, w ad tabd wn gn Mvmnt,Abdua, w ad aund t Natna catn

Aantan, Qann, fam, and ima Kan

w a ntab abnt at t nauuatn Za

Maud Natna fnt. Qann Nw Aantan

Pat ad, b t pnt, bm nta dunt. h

natn wt rabban ad atatd nt

nt paamnt and a tun t t Jamat d. T


27/41



mbdnd t Taban and t pn n Paktan

Patpatn ud nt av bn at t v, sa

tatd, bau t pn w ad m n ba

t Taban a nv mt Mua oma. h wa nt

t Pa b t isi.96 in Ma 2013, pntatv

t Aan ntn v annund t addud a Taban pt t aanat Abdua Abdua

and Amad Za Maud.97 T Taban attak

Nazua, dad upn at tat ad vd

d m t Taban Qutta sua n Paktan

t aanat bt ntn ad.98 lat tat

mnt, bt Za Maud and sa pd tdnt

kptm abut t unvn t Taban Da

oce in Qatar as a platform from

w t bn pa tak. sa

amd t Da pntatv

who styled their oce perch as the

iam emat Aantan,

w nt b Paktan ntn

ant and w ut tu wt

Taban ad Mua Mammad

oma. Maud ad t

opening of the oce would lead

t an na n vn n t

unt.99 Nvt, bt

Za Maud and Abdua av

ubqunt pd aam vPdnt Kaza upnn

ntatn v t Bata

sut Amnt wt t

Untd stat n atn t pvd U.s. mpt

in the manner of the opening of the oce and the

pbt a z ptn U.s. tp at 2014

A pkman t Natna catn, faza raman

oa, attakd Pdnt Kaza atn d

in his reaction to the opening of the Doha oce. 100

T ptum pnn n ntatn a t

various Jamiat-led splinter groups makes it dicult

though not insurmountable, to present a unied

pptn n 2014. Nt Abdua n Maud a

v ud ut t pbt jnn . in Jun

2012, Massoud announced his desire to eld a joint

anddat n t 2014 tn wt Abdua Natna

abn a tndd t pmnnt m mmunt

and at tat ad n ad wt rabban n

2007.90 Atta N, qunt dmv t pta

dam and dntazatn advatd b t fnt,

a mand abnt. h ad ntab dnd t

patpat n 2007 wn Buanuddn rabban adtd t unt t pptn.91

Nw wa t bakanzatn wtn t pat m

appant tan v ntatn wt t Taban.92

Buanuddn rabban aptan t amanp

t hPc ad natd tnn wtn Jamat

ank. Atu m mmb t pat avd

pan an atv n t pa

negotiations to inuence the

dun n t av, t

w nan kpta tat

rabban appntmnt pntd

antn m tan a pta p

b Pdnt Kaza t kp t

ntn atn n bad wt

pa anda.93

rum uatd tat Kaza ad

mvd Amua sa, n

suspicious of Pakistani inuence

n Aantan, m ptna ad t natna ntn

v, t Natna Dtat

sut (NDs), a a pdnta

concession to Pakistan. Out of oce, as head of his new

gn Tnd mvmnt, sa adptd a v pub

ant-Taban tan.94 Nt n dd sa ptn

va a t wt bt rabban n t h Pa

cun, t ndatd a pptv m tdnt ant-

ntatn tan t Abdua Natna catn

Aantan Maud Natna fnt.

T att tw pat ad av mand autu

pn t tak. Za Maud attndd dun wt

t Taban n Pa n Dmb 2012, w Abdua

nt w-v pntatv m t Natna

catn.95 sa wa ta t patpatn,

mmntn tat t pn at t tab n

If there is a nationalunderstanding, a collective

understanding by all Afghan

leaders on a candidate,

then I wont run. But if the

President makes a decision

only with his own team,

then I will be a candidate.- Atta Mohammad Noor


28/41



AttA mohAmmAd noor: From ProvIncIAl

strongmAn to PresIdentIAl cAndIdAte?

gvn Atta Mammad N, t wad-tund-

vn m Aantan tata atd

ntn pvn Bak, a n pdd a

Jamat na ad n t nt.103 Adn t a

nt Wall Street Journal pt, ant bbad t

vn, patd a t pvna apta Maza-

-sa, a utnumb t Pdnt Kaza.104

A mujadn vtan w ut wt t Ntn

Aan and w a ud v Bak a vn n

2004, Atta a n nt mnt td umbn ta

ambtn bt wtn t pat and n t natna

pta ta ma av wn. Atta ad annund

ntntn t tak t m Jamat at rabban

aanatnt am da tat saauddn wa tda t ntm ad t pvnt t pat m pb

uptu. i t a t anddat, tatd, i

w apt t jb at nutatn n a bd t av t

pat m n.105

Atta t pw, ud wt gna Dtum

nt Maza- sa, and natn

wt Pdnt Kaza at Abdua dat n t

2009 tn av bn w dumntd and w

nt b vd n dta .106 on t-td an Kaza wnn t -pt Atta at tan

manaz m a dd Abdua and Qann

a bn t tabt tat t vn pvd

t pvd wtn t pvn and t nvn. Tat

ma tabt a ndtna upn Atta adp

n t nt n tat Atta umd t av atv

atd, nudn b ntn a tan d

tub n t pvn dun abn m Bak

n t wak Abdua dat.107 hwv, ant

an ma dv m t at tat Atta a bn a ta ntazd pw wtn t Aan tat

tan untpat n t pptn, man wm

av bn adnt advat a dazd Aan

tat. T a nt pvntd Kabu m attmptn

dvd-and-nqu tat n t nt t wakn

the inuence of regional powerbrokers, Atta among

tm. T tu btwn Kaza and Atta ndatd

catn, tn a ma za btwn t tw up t

nat pta m.101 sa, t, dpt tn

d ba aant an m ntatd da wt

t Taban, a aatd m wt t Natna

fnt. lk t Ntn Aan b t, t ab

Natna fnt a n aan bm nnmu

wt a knd ntn mujadn pta dat,

but a dat tat ma nnt dv n t a

of tempting oers by the central government. Figures

u a Dtum and Maqqq, bt ntna td t

the National Front, have historically proven ckle allies

in the face of promising oers from Kabul.102 f man

t m wad, pt ntnu t vv

aund pw at tan pnp, makn tm -tan-ab a t pptn.

A t pta pna wtn Jamat ntnu

t pnt and a amnt tmv, t a

inuence of the party in 2014 may instead reside

wt tw m mujadn mmand and Jamat

avwt, Maa fam and Atta N. T

dtn n w t pta at t tw

ndvdua tun a k t pa an utzd n

dtmnn w untd Jamat unt and mmmb w b n 2014. Bt mn av pvn

apab mantann an aan wt t Kaza-d

vnmnt at t am tm tat t av dabbd n

pptn pt wn umtan ut tm.

Photo 2 | the AttA mAzAr summIt. (source: AFghAnIstAn-todAy.org)


29/41



ntt n nn wt hzb- iam n

at at Ap at a and ptd mt mutp

tm wt t ad t tmat pta wn,

enm Mnt Abdu had Aandwa.114 Atta

bav ut t ma b a a man t

m Ntn Aan mmb t n wthzb- iam pta wn, a natn tat ma

nt na qu nunt ad gubuddn

hkmata bn, tan wt t Taban. Atta

a qunt tzd saauddn rabban h

Peace Council as ineectual.115 A w wk at

Dmb annunmnt tat a atn wt hzb-

Islami might be in the ong, Atta met with another

m nm, gna Dtum, bnd d d

t du mn an aan aad t tn.

Dtum d t a mna c

Sta to the Commander-in-Chief of the Afghan Armed

f, and a vd wt Atta nt Bak

mu t at dad.116

ht ut tat Atta manuvn ma b

au pannd. in 1993, dun t v wa,

hkmata up und an unk bdw n

Dtum Junb and bt tund n Jamat n t

batt Kabu.117 Dpt t ta nmt and

vaab pta tun, Dtum t man

n t mt mptant nt t mt mptant

tnmn n Aantan ntwt. And dptt aua pw and unaaabt tat Atta k

to project, the governors primary inuence remains

a mtd t m tu Bak and a w t

uundn pvn n t nt, u a sa- Pu

and samanan.118

evn wtn t ank Jamat mpatz, va

ntwk t n Badakan, Panj, Pawan and

t tnd pvn. Wtn maj aa

Badakan, amp, t rabban am ntwka tadtna d att wa, a bau

t patna tat rabban dd ut v t a t

m dtt and t aa n and aund faabad,

Badakan apta.119 sn Daud Kan aanatn

n 2011, Atta a ptd d t t ima Kan

n t wt, n addtn t tn nntn wt

a tnmn n Baan, Kunduz, and Taka.120

wv, tat t atnp wa utu nu

bt tm t want t mantan t tatu qu.108

Wt t ntab ptn uppt Abdua

n t 2009 ampan, Atta a avdd bmn

t and wt t vau Jamat-npdpptn pat and a nt kd a pmannt

fall-out with Karzai. Instead, he has preferred to benet

m ntna uppt t nta vnmnt,

w patn at a mv m t ntu t

Kabu-bad t. T dn apat n Atta

pat ma b att pta tnt and n tat

ud v m w ud un n t natna

tn.109

lkn aad t 2014, Atta wud av t ptn

ptnn m t a an pptn anddat

a n m and wt Pdnt Kaza

and wv n u mt b. T a

ndatn tat Atta awa t dnam, and a

bun ptnn m t bm a nt t

ntn ntunn 2014. Wt Atta tt

nvnn a un tt t pdn amn

t jn a pdnta tkt a a v pdnt a fam

and Za Maud dd b m man una. At

a p nn n Nvmb wt t U.s. dput

spa env Aantan, Atta annund pb andda t pdnta tn, tn

d t un t pp upptd m.110 T

vn a a pub tatd n t pat tat

intends to ignore any other Jamiat-aliated candidates

tat mt tp wad.111 in Janua 2013, Atta

armed that if there is a national understanding, a

tv undtandn b a Aan ad n a

anddat, tn i wnt un. But t pdnt mak

a dn n wt wn tam, tn i w b a

anddat.112

A w wk p t t annunmnt, Atta ndatd

adn t m a atn wt hzb- iam,

Jamat nm tuut mu t at w

dad, w mtant wn t pat d b

gubuddn hkmata nttut n Aantan

mdab nunt up.113 Atta ad bn ndatn


30/41



Karzai s Chief of Sta. Recent reporting indicates that

oma Daudza, a m hzb- iam mmb and

unt Aan Ambaad t Paktan, ma a b

ptnn m t b t Patun ntunnanddat.125 i , Atta manuv wud v t put

Pdnt Kaza n nt tat mut t at

t vn and Ntn Aan atn nt

dn-makn adn t mptn a

u vnmnt k t ppt a m-

untd ntn pptn b.

Abv a, t man t undn qutn

of whether a bid for the highest oce of the land is

nu t an Atta auu abut undn tuatv vnp Bak. B kpn m at

am nt m t pta wann n Kabu, Atta

unk fam, a manad t avd bn pvd a

t t t Kaza m, w a tn

bn ta. fm p n Maza- sa, and

the Jamiat-aliated elites that surround him control

much of the lucrative trade and investment ows into

t n, a w a t maj mda utt.126

Atta unk t mak a u pa a a

un and unt ntt a u. Kaza

manazd bt Qann and Abdua wtn t

nta vnmnt n Kabu at datd t

andda, and t nt a na tat Atta wud

k t muat. T patua bau t

vnp n Bak a n attatd Atta btt

va, amn tm Dtum Junb.127 Pdnt

Kaza pnunmnt tat an anddat n t

Atta wud nd t n tna aan, a w

a wn pna ntwk wtn Jamat, t p

cement his national prole, as well as to hedge against

an ut ntnn n NATo tp av

a wtdawn.121 T ma t m tnt pan

w, n at Janua 2013, Atta pad t t u tm Ntn Aan ad n Bak, a

wm pdd t uppt Atta andda pdnt

ud t vn dd t un.122 T mmb

t -ad Ntn summt Maza Aan

nudd Dtum, Maqqq, sa, and Za Maud.

Ntab abnt amn tm wa Abdua Abdua.

Atta ta va wt Dtum and Maqqq

av pad nt pvu attmpt b Pdnt Kaza

t manpuat atna dvn n t nt t

advanta, and a dpa dat amn t

t n patua ud b amd at tan u

attmpt n t un-up t t tn. h pubatn

a pta pap, nttd ejma- M, n fbua

2013, upptd t da a at dntazatn

pw, a ptn bt Dtum and Maqqq am

t uppt a mmb t Natna fnt, tu

mand adamant ppd t t dazatn

t Aan tat.123

cnvntna wdm a tn d tat Aantan

ad tat mut b a Patun n d t mantanan tn baan wtn a vnmnt tadtna

dmnatd b mmb t Ntn Aan.

rabban -atd pdn wa n t w

ptn n nt dad t tat nvntn.

T tt dubt tat Atta dd t un n a

pdnta tkt, w nd t ptn m

au t an t uppt Aantan

Patun mmunt wtut anatn ntn

ba. sun t aan t pta, nt t

mtant, wn hzb- iam ud pvd Atta wtt va nd t pand appa t vau

Patun pwbk and t nttun.124

T pta wn hzb- iam a bm a

ptnt pta n t unt. Kaza pnt

vnmnt nud man m and unt

mmb hzb- iam, u a faq Wadak,

t eduatn Mnt, and Abdu Kam Kuam,

Photo 2 | AhmAd zIA mAssoud. (source: FAcebook)


31/41



patna ntwk n av Tajk Jamat a.

inma mujadn ntwk und tnmn k

fam and Atta av mand ntat, dpt ptnt

eorts at disarmament over the years.133

in 2009 and 2010 Kaza ban -mntn aan wt fam at dppn m m t

pdnta tkt n 2004. in addtn t t mutua

nancial interests realized by both sides, reconciliation

btwn t tw pvdd a t nt pta

benets for both individuals and their respective

ntwk. fam wa antd addtna dm

t nt ut appntmnt wtn t Aan

Natna sut f and n t ntn pvn

b t am tkn, pn n t vnmnt

allowed Karzai to co-opt enough inuential Tajiks to

ntnu t kp pptnpatua wtn

Jamatdvdd.134

Dpt tna aaut n tat aan, u a t

unavn t Kabu Bank anda tat mpatd

t bt bt mn, t tt an t bv

t a dntatd. Kaza dn t appnt fam

at Bmua Kan Mammad a mnt

dn ut tat at at n fam pma

ndtn patpatn n t vnmntnam

that he and the Tajiks retain control over signicantmnt t natna ut t bn

mt.135 T dn am vn at paamnt

mpamnt Bmua Kan a Mnt int

n Auut 2012, and at um tat t t t

int wa pptatd b Kaza a a up

Khan were left in his position as army chief-of-sta.136

T um Kaza a appa -undd, n

t pdnt a v dbat kpt Kan n nt

t tat ut appaatu.

fam utu pta ppt man an pn

qutn. An aan wt n ant t

opposition leaders at rst blush appears unlikely

Amad Za Maud pad fam n t pdnta

tkt n 2004, and Abdua an aant a Kaza-

fam tkt n 2009. Nt pd k t av

ndad fam t t t Natna fnt t t

tn ud n unt pt k t put

pu n Atta t u a d nnu bnd

m b at.128 on Ju 1, 2013, t Pvna

ladp cun Jamat, d b saauddn

rabban, annund t pat ntntn t tand

bnd a n anddat t tn.129

At tam p nn, Atta N wa mad eutv

Dt t pat eutv cun, atu a

ptn man tmpa unt Jamat d ant,

n vdu, pat n. T mv ut tat

Atta ntnu t ndat d v t pat

and, jut a mptant, tat t nt avt wtn

Jamat ma b tn awa m t Panj wn

t anzatn d b fam and t Maud bt.

Nn fam a w appntd t t pat

nw ntm bad and ima Kan a appad t

av bn dnd dun t pdn.130 T

wd tat appa t b mn btwn fam and

ima Kan n t n and, and Atta N n t

t, ud v Pdnt Kaza w ntntn

t n aan pt t Jamat vt aad t 2014

tn.

mArshAl mohAmmAd QAsIm FAhIm: JAmIAts

kIngPIn

N dun Jamat utu ppt wud bmpt wtut a dun ft V Pdnt

Maa fam, Amad sa Maud nd-n-

mmand n t sua- Naza and, at rabban

assassination, arguably the most inuential leader

wtn Jamat. havn vd a Amad sa Maud

ad ntn and dn mnt dun

t Tantna Admntatn m 2002-2004,

Maud wa umd t av abd pdnta

ambtn at t pak pw at t a t

Taban.131

hwv, tnn wt Pdnt Kazanv aatd nt pmannt uptu.

fam ntad atd t pdnt n an

garnering a considerable degree of power and inuence

m and a n t nw tat vnmnt.132

lk Atta, fam a upptd t ndatn a

ntazd tat, pvdd u ntazatn d

nt btut t dvpmnt na and atna


32/41



fnt wa t-vd and ndd n natn wt

t pdnt. in t wa, bt fam and Atta av

btd a ma d t pat wtn t nta

vnmnt appaatu.143 Serving as a central gure

n vnmnt a awd fam t am Maud

mant a t dnd Tajk and, m bad,mujadn ntt wtn t Aan tat, and t

benet from the patronage opportunities such a position

pvd. A u, pttn t aud an n t

u t pta tantn w b fam pt

a t unt advan twad t 2014 tn. A

t tm t pubatn, fam umd t av

md a pdnta tkt wt m mujadn

ad Abdu rau saa, an tn Patun w

ut wt t Ntn Aan and w wa n

t und t Aan iamt mvmnt and

Buanuddn rabba and gubuddn hktmata, and

Mammad Maqqq, t hazaa wad w nw

a mmb t Natna fnt.144 su a tkt, t

pd, wud am t auad t ntt t

ubt m mujadn ad and mmand

n t unt pta t at tan n a

nun ann t uad n Aan pt.

T appa t t a dat btwn fam

and Atta tan btwn t tm and ntandn

mmb t pptn adn ntatn wtthe Taliban. The former have tended to exhibit a reexive

upn v an dun wt t nunt up

dpt t ntna uppt pa. rabban

aanatn n 2011 pvdd ut mptu t

tw Jamat tnmn t aa t mt pa tak145 T h Pa cun unvn t t U.s. stat

Dpatmnt n a Dmb 2012 a Pa P

radmap t 2015, a bupnt w ud ptnta

n n vnmnt ptn t t Taban and

a mu a Paktan, k t apndvn wtn Jamat btwn pdnta appnt

k saauddn rabban w a bn takd wt

advann pa ntatn and t pat tnmn

w ut aant t Taban.

Natna catn. fam and-pkd u,

gna Daud Daud Kan, m p mmand

of the northern zone and a condante of Ahmad Shah

Maud, wa aanatd b Taban nunt a

part of a high-prole attack in May 2011.137 T attak,

and t vauum t t, utat Jamat ntnunvunabt a a pnat-dpndnt anzatn

t tatd nunt attak t knd tat wud at

am t und, Buanuddn rabban. Bma

Kan, fam a utnant, ak t pta

ntnt qud t tp nt fam unt . Pat

t anw adn fam tun w n n

t natu t pta atnp btwn m

and Atta n t ad-up t t tn, and t tnt

to which President Karzai supports the inuence of one

at t pn t t.

W t atnp a nt bn m tnn

t umd tat fam wa utant t uppt Atta

andda t bm t nt ad Jamat ut a

nn tat mt w t pwu bt mn

a ma bakund and p mpmnta

ntwk wtn t ntn pvna tnd

t pat.138 fam wd aumd t av bkd

t natn mtn btwn Pdnt Kaza

and Atta at t tw ut v Atta uppt

Abdua ampan.139 Mu ma dpnd n wtthey decide to pool their eorts or compete for the

aan Jamat a tnmn a t nt

and ntat t unt.140 T annunmnt n

Ju 2013 tat saauddn rabban, a atv wak

and anodyne political gure, would remain provisional

ad t pat unt at t tn ut

that the contest for inuence within Jamiat remains

unddd.141

lk Atta, fam a nv appad ntnt t aum anda ptn n Aan pt b u mban

t pptn mvmnt aant Kaza. evn wn

fam wa dppd m t tkt n 2004 n av

Amad Za Maud, Kaza ntnud t nut

wt m abut pvna appntmnt n t ut

v a t unt ntat w fam

ntwk a tnt.142 h aatn wt t Untd


33/41



whIther JAmIAt In 2014?

Although the ssures were becoming apparent as early

a 2004, Jamat appa t av ntnud pntn

an tw maj n: btwn t m wad

w t pmnn m t ank mujadn

mmand and w nw m pat t vnmnt

tabmnt n t n and, and t pna

pptn ptan n t t. T dat, t nta

government has been able to co-opt the most inuential

Jamiat-aliated warlords, including Marshal Fahim,

ima Kan, and Atta N, tu tat appntmnt

and t u ndwmnt u appntmnt

pvd, w manazn t pptn ptan.

At avn t vnmnt pt, t att up

pptn ptan, mt pmnnt yunuQann, Abdua Abdua, and A mad Za Maud,

has focused its eorts on achieving inuence through

paamnt and t dvutn pw m t

utv ban. T dvd a wkd t Pdnt

Kaza advanta; -ptn t tnmn

wtn Jamat w p t mta ut and pta

u t ntat a up a kpt t pptn

atv wak and amntd. hwv, t ad

tat pptn, amn tm Abdua Abdua and

Amad Za Maud, av ndatd t ma mbn n utu. i t ptan a unuu n

t 2014 pdnta ntt and ntnu t u

n un a mpttv advanta n t atu,

this divide within Jamiat could lead to signicant

tnn btwn a nw pdnta admntatn and

paamnt at 2014.146

Burhanuddin Rabbani could not prevent these ssures

wtn Jamat m mn, but wt aanatn

t dvd btwn Jamat tabd tnmn andt pptn ptan k t w vn dp.

T d rabban pdd v, nt ntd, t

ntpta wtn Jamat and, n dn, vd

a a knd bk amn tm. rabban wa bt a

ad t pptn and t mand t t

Kaza vnmnt b aptn appntmnt t a

t Pa Ja and t ad t h Pa cun.147

h a pat unt n a a ptua ad

aknd bak t t pat ta a and

nuad pnt atn u a Qann Nw

Aantan Pat bak nt t d.148

Jamat tanmd t m a tanzim nt tt mtan a tn pnat n t a at t

a t Taban. hwv, wt t dat rabban

and wt ant tn n t zn, at

a k t bm m, nt , ntd aund

specic candidates and their respective networks

T ptan w nvk t Jamat nntn a

and wn t ut tm. T un saauddn ak

antn k at tatu. f t an,

ma man n pa a t ntna ad Jamat t

keep the peace among the dierent factions, but he so

a appa unk t uu n v tm.

The next test for Afghanistans edgling democracy

w b wt patpatn n t tn n 2014

man t pd man mantann a t

tat pw.149 Wt and w tat auatn mt

an a NATo wtdaw and pndn

patna tam bn t dwnd man an pn

qutn. Mt t t and t bun, and

ab, and mnp nnd b tnmn n

2001 av bn dtd twad un pta

inuence, rather than prots as such.150 f nw, t

anddat w a nn up appa t b takn t

ppt t mn tn u. T dat

Pdnt Kaza a manad t -pt and manpuat

t aan t unt vau atn t

mantan a mban natna n, pbtn

na and paa ntt m vwmn

t nta tat appaatu. sud a u w

Pdnt Kaza tat n t ad, t-tm

pta tabt ma b avd n t tantn ta pt-Kaza a. hwv, n t n-tm u

ptkn w mpd t unt tanndn

m a unt vnd b t pt wadm

t a nun dma. Atta ptnn m

and bt m nm, hkmata

hzb- iam and Dtum Junb, and fam

pb aan wt saa a ndatn tat


34/41



unnvntna m-mndd ptan t

a a v ba t nt at t t v

Aan pt.

In this context, whither Jamiat? The Jamiat aliation

appa t man a v at t pvna vn t nt and ntat. T n a

t ut tn and ta t bndn m

mujahideen ghters to individual commanders, such

a fam n Panj and Atta n Bak.151 hwv,

ban a maj , t man a m tan

whether Jamiat can eectively mobilize as a political

pat n t a t m. T ndvdua tnmn

w mntd t pat a n t a wn

t Taban m a k t amp t pat

dmat tanmatn b dan ntna

m and tan t tn nw adp. At

pnt, t pta pat man v t nan

t a, at tan untn ndpndnt

tm.152 B t am tkn, man t Jamat pat

ad av wn t n ntnatna ntat and

n ad, wadn t uppt,

while neglecting a younger, increasingly disaected,

constituency. However, the ospring of many of these

Aan wad pnt a natna u m

t at, ad t patpat n pt but

duatd at ba, Wtn nttutn abad. T

pn , dt nvvmnt n, t bd svt

upatn and v wa a tn bn mana.153

gat attntn b t Wt t t pta vutn

t ut, and t t m-mndd ntatv

u a t Aantan 1400 mvmnt, mpd

a numb duatd and dv un ad,

ud p t an t natu t pta am a

t unt bn pad.154

Jamat- iam a mand u a ptnt ptapat bau t ta and t ndvdua

aatd wt t, mt ntab amn tm Amad

sa Maud, a w a t tat patna antd

t t b Kabu-bad pat t. A Atta tn

t Maza ummt dmntat, t d mujadn

aliations are at their most potent and most cohesive

wn t a pvd t b und tv tat.

T untant aatd wt t pta tantn

2014 w man tat man, nt mt, t

Jamat ad w a bak n t natua pta

ntnt t pv and ptt t an, at tan

nua an a m. cnv, t vau

Jamiat-aliated opposition gures that have expressedan ntt n vn t pta tm av nt

dmntatd a patua v n

u t dat. T nw pta pat t av

undd av pnd a ndab amunt

un n t nun a and t tata aan

wt t wad and t ptv nttun

have often represented little more than supercia

ntut t advan t wn pta a.

conclusIon

in sptmb 2012, twnt Aan pta pat

jnd tt n a cpatn cun Pta

Pat and catn n Aantan (ccPPcA) and

pdud a Dma cat. T at p

tm tn and a at Aantan

pta pat n t dn-makn p

vnan. Jamat wa pntd n t cun b

n tan pta anzatn.155 T tn

2014, wv, nt apn up t nud a ada

new crop of political players. The present moment oersan pptunt U.s. and ntnatna pmak

t -na wt Aantan nant dmat and

v t anzatn t atat a mut-tn

bad-bad pta tm.

Atu mu ntnatna nn nt upn t

tm dn a and a tn nt Ap

t a dn abut w pw w b dtbutd

and dvdd n an u vnmnt a aad

un bnd d d. T pta -tadn ud n ambn a u vnmnt

at tan mp dtmnn t nt uu

pdnta tkt. Pdnt Kaza ntandn

animus against the formation and inuence of political

parties has suocated opportunities for genuine reform

wtn t Aan tat and pptuatd t

pt pnat b w a ma ad t

mantan pw n t unt. A t tn

8/22/2019 The Northern Alliance prepar

the northern alliance prepares for afghan elections in 2014

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