the orange revolution and democratic change in ukraine
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THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE. Agenda. What is Ukraine? An overview The Orange Revolution and its historical preconditions Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy… Why these elections were so important? What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in
UKRAINEUKRAINE
AgendaAgenda
What is Ukraine? An overviewWhat is Ukraine? An overview The Orange Revolution and its historical The Orange Revolution and its historical
preconditionspreconditions- Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy…Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy…- Why these elections were so important?Why these elections were so important?- What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004?What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004?
What is going to change in Ukraine?What is going to change in Ukraine? What to take home? – Q&AWhat to take home? – Q&A
UKRAINEUKRAINE
• The biggest country in the East Central Europe:- territory: 603,5 thousand km2- population: 47,280,800,000+ people• A multiethnic country: more than 130
nationalities• 24 oblasts + Autonomous Republic of Crimea- exit to 2 seas: Black, Azov- mountains: Carpathians, Crimean- major rivers: Dnipro, Dnistro, Dunay, Prut, Bug, Donets• Neighbors: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (the EU),
Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey (the future EU), Belarus, Russia, Georgia, (the CIS)
UKRAINE (continued)UKRAINE (continued)Population (thousands of ppl)
44000
45000
46000
47000
48000
49000
50000
51000
52000
53000
%
UKRAINE (continued)UKRAINE (continued)
• GDP growth: 12% in 2004• *Areas of strong specialization: mineral
production, oil and energy products, chemical products, mechanical equipment, machines, electrical equipment, transport and road equipment, black metals, textiles, polymeric materials
• Main trade partners: CIS, EU, Africa, Asia• FDI: USD 7761,5 mln
UKRAINE (continued)UKRAINE (continued)Real GDP Growth (1991-2004)
-8,7 -9,9
-14,2
-22,9
-12,2-10
-3 -1,9
-0,2
5,99,2
5,2
9,312
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
Ukrainian HistoryUkrainian History
• Kyiv Rus• Cossacks’ military state• Bohdan Khmelnitskiy’s Hetmanate• Ukrainian People’s Republic• Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic• Ukraine…• Have been re-divided among:
Lithuania, Poland, Austro-Hungary, Russia, Romania, Czechoslovakia…
• Have always been fighting for freedom
Elites and electionsElites and elections
1991 – presidential elections: Leonid Kravchuk.1991 – presidential elections: Leonid Kravchuk.
CPU apparatchiks + ‘red directorate’CPU apparatchiks + ‘red directorate’
1994 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma1994 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma
‘‘Red director’ + business clansRed director’ + business clans
1998 – parliamentary elections: 1998 – parliamentary elections:
Communist party + ‘red directorate’Communist party + ‘red directorate’
Business Groups in UkraineBusiness Groups in Ukraine
InterpipeSystem CapitalManagement
Industrial UnionDonbass Pryvat
Interpipe: Key personality: Viktor Pinchuk, Kuchma’s son-in-law. Personal wealth: USD1.5 bln.Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-Head of NBU, ex-Minister of EconomyMedia assets controlled: ICTV, Ukrainian Media-Holding (newspapers, radio stations)Industrial Union of Donbass: Key person: Mr.Taruta. Personal wealth: USD1.2 bln.Political representation: ex-Prime Minister (Viktor Yanukovych), ex-minister of fuel and energy, ex-president’s advisor System Capital Management: Key person: Renat Akhmetov. Personal wealth: USD2.5 bln.Political representation: Regions of UkraineMedia assets controlled: TRC Ukraina, Internet web-sitesPryvat:Key person: Ihor Kolomoyskiy. Personal wealth: USD2.2 bln.Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-head of Presidential Administration (Viktor Medvedchuk), ex-Head of NBU Media assets controlled by Medvedchuk: Inter, 1+1, newspapers, radio stations, Internet web-sites
BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)
STRENGTHSSTRENGTHS Strong influence on Strong influence on
politics through political politics through political representationrepresentation
Control over major Control over major production areas in production areas in UkraineUkraine
Access to President Access to President KuchmaKuchma
Control over media Control over media assets securing control assets securing control over public opinionover public opinion
WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES Lack of consolidation Lack of consolidation
(groups compete in (groups compete in business and political business and political influence)influence)
Various extents of Various extents of dependence on Kuchmadependence on Kuchma
Concentrated allocation Concentrated allocation (East of Ukraine: (East of Ukraine: Dnepropetrovsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkov)Donetsk, Kharkov)
Areas of Business Groups’ Competition*Areas of Business Groups’ Competition*
System Capital System Capital ManagementManagement
Industrial Industrial Union of Union of DonbassDonbass
InterpipeInterpipe PryvatPryvat
MetalsMetals
Metal Mining Metal Mining CokeCoke
MetalsMetals
Metal Mining Metal Mining CokeCoke
MetalsMetals MetalsMetals
Metal Mining Metal Mining
CokeCoke
PipesPipes
OblenergosOblenergos
Machine buildingMachine building
PipesPipes
Ferro alloysFerro alloys
OblenergosOblenergos
Machine buildingMachine building
Ferro AlloysFerro Alloys
TelecomsTelecoms
Mass MediaMass Media
TelecomsTelecoms
Mass MediaMass Media
TelecomsTelecoms
Elites and elections (continued)Elites and elections (continued)March 1999 – the leader of opposition dies in a car crashMarch 1999 – the leader of opposition dies in a car crashOctober 1999 – presidential elections: Leonid KuchmaOctober 1999 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma
VSVS
Leonid KUCHMA Petro SYMONENKOLeonid KUCHMA Petro SYMONENKO (leader of Communists)(leader of Communists)
(= Russian scenario: Yeltsin vs Ziuganov…)(= Russian scenario: Yeltsin vs Ziuganov…)
Intrusion of Russian political technologistsIntrusion of Russian political technologists
UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000
Vyacheslav Chornovil Georgiy GongadzeVyacheslav Chornovil Georgiy Gongadze
REFERENDUM: Ukraine – a presidential republic?REFERENDUM: Ukraine – a presidential republic?The people said ‘YES’? Falsifications…The people said ‘YES’? Falsifications…
MELNICHENKO’S TAPESMELNICHENKO’S TAPESKuchma was selling missiles to Iraq? International pressureKuchma was selling missiles to Iraq? International pressure
MASS PROTESTS: KUCHMA’S IMPEACHMENT!?MASS PROTESTS: KUCHMA’S IMPEACHMENT!?
Viktor YuschenkoViktor Yuschenko Successful bankerSuccessful banker 1996–1999 - Head of the National 1996–1999 - Head of the National
Bank of Ukraine:Bank of Ukraine:- Stopped inflationStopped inflation- Introduced HryvnyaIntroduced Hryvnya- Avoided financial crisis of 1998Avoided financial crisis of 1998 2000 – Prime Minister:2000 – Prime Minister:- Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9%Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9%- Eliminated bartersEliminated barters- Paid salary and pension debtsPaid salary and pension debts- Pressed the business groupsPressed the business groupsWeaknesses: mildness, tendency to loosing Weaknesses: mildness, tendency to loosing
momentummomentum
Elites and Elections (continued)Elites and Elections (continued)2002 – parliamentary elections: Nasha Ukraina, 2002 – parliamentary elections: Nasha Ukraina,
bloc of Viktor Yuschenkobloc of Viktor Yuschenko
A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME!A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME! Opposition fails to form a majorityOpposition fails to form a majority Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of
Presidential AdministrationPresidential Administration
Results of the Parliamentary Elections 2002
23.5719.98
11.777.26 6.87 6.27
05
1015
2025
Nasha
Ukra
ina
For
United
Ukra
ine
Socia
list
Part
y
Viktor YanukovychViktor Yanukovych
Head of the Donetsk State Head of the Donetsk State AdministrationAdministration
Head of the Donetsk Oblast Head of the Donetsk Oblast CouncilCouncil
2002-2004 - Prime Minister2002-2004 - Prime Minister- Increased economic growth to 12%Increased economic growth to 12%- Increased salaries and pensionsIncreased salaries and pensions- Fought the crop and fuel crisesFought the crop and fuel crises
Weaknesses: 2 criminal convictions, Weaknesses: 2 criminal convictions, close links to unpopular regime close links to unpopular regime and business groupsand business groups
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMCONSTITUTIONAL REFORM
The last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after electionsThe last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after elections
Constitution of 1996Constitution of 1996
PRESIDENTPRESIDENT Prime Minister PARLIAMENT Prime Minister PARLIAMENT
Proposed changes (2004)Proposed changes (2004)
President President PRIMEPRIME MINISTERMINISTER PARLIAMENT PARLIAMENT
ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004
The great possibility of Yuschenko being The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected is a real danger for the business groupselected is a real danger for the business groups
Business groups unite their resources and Business groups unite their resources and influence to support Yanukovychinfluence to support Yanukovych
Russia resumes its pressureRussia resumes its pressure
Funds (Funds (Renat AkhmetovRenat Akhmetov) + Media () + Media (Viktor PinchukViktor Pinchuk) + ) + Russian polittechnologists (Russian polittechnologists (Viktor MedvedchukViktor Medvedchuk) = ) = growth of Yanukovych’s rating from 4% to 30%growth of Yanukovych’s rating from 4% to 30%
CAMPAIGN 2004CAMPAIGN 2004 26 candidates26 candidatesTechnical candidates…Technical candidates… Access to media and Access to media and
resourcesresourcesRejected to most of the candidates Rejected to most of the candidates
but onebut one Positioning of the major Positioning of the major
candidatescandidatesBusy Prime Minister vs People’s Busy Prime Minister vs People’s
candidatecandidate Attempts at murdering the Attempts at murdering the
candidatescandidatesPoisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg Poisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg
scandal of Yanukovychscandal of Yanukovych
Violations of electoral law:Violations of electoral law:- Falsifying signaturesFalsifying signatures- Using administrative resourceUsing administrative resource- Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia
supporting one of the candidates)supporting one of the candidates)- Exceeding campaign financial limitsExceeding campaign financial limits Applying political technologies:Applying political technologies:- Playing on differences between East and Playing on differences between East and
West of UkraineWest of Ukraine- Raising pensions and salaries… Raising pensions and salaries…
inflationinflation- Preventing Yuschenko from coming to Preventing Yuschenko from coming to
the Eastern regionsthe Eastern regions- Creating false images of candidates Creating false images of candidates
(Yuschenko - fascist)(Yuschenko - fascist)
RESULTSRESULTS
Results of presidential elections 2004
39.9 39.2646.61 49.46 51.99
44.2
010
203040
5060
Yuschenko
Yanukovych
Yuschenko
Yanukovych
Yuschenko
Yanukovych
31.10.2004 21.11.2004 26.12.2004
RESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTIONRESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION
Yuschenko is the President of UkraineYuschenko is the President of Ukraine Ukraine has become famous in all of the worldUkraine has become famous in all of the world Ukraine is going to be a parliamentary republicUkraine is going to be a parliamentary republic Ukraine has declared a course towards democratic Ukraine has declared a course towards democratic
reformsreforms Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all of the Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all of the
key authoritieskey authorities The pressure of Russia has decreasedThe pressure of Russia has decreased Ukraine has cleared its external course: EUUkraine has cleared its external course: EU
WHAT TO TAKE HOMEWHAT TO TAKE HOME
The Orange Revolution is a result of many The Orange Revolution is a result of many years’ evolution of Ukrainian politics and years’ evolution of Ukrainian politics and economyeconomy
The Orange Revolution is the third democratic The Orange Revolution is the third democratic change of elites in Ukrainechange of elites in Ukraine
The Orange Revolution has reshaped The Orange Revolution has reshaped Ukraine’s position in Europe and the CISUkraine’s position in Europe and the CIS