the organic wine market 2013-23 · red wine dominates across the five key markets and is driven by...

The Organic Wine Market 2013-23

Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020

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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.

About the IWSR

Expertise:

• 45+ years of international

beverage market research

• Specialise in just beverage

alcohol: beer, wine, spirits, cider,

mixed drinks

Breadth & Depth:

• 160 countries covered and

forecasted

• 24,000+ brand lines tracked

• 400,000+ data points

updated, including price and

duty free

Category Leadership:

• Trusted partner for beer, wine

and spirits suppliers, financial,

and non-alcoholic beverage

companies

• Forecast experts in what’s next

Market Intelligence:

• Our analysts travel the world in

order to meet over 1,600 local

professionals to capture

market trends – the ‘why’

behind the numbers


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Summary (1/2)

General

• Highly competitive

• Different dynamics

• Regional shifts

• Category shifts


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Summary (2/2)

Organic wines

• Organic wines are niche

• France and Germany

• France to drive growth

• Other markets growing

• Production growth


Context

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Three phases of growth in the past two decades; growth, stagnation and stability. Still & Sparking trajectories are notably different, but

smaller sparkling overshadowed by dominant still wine. Multiple factors at play

0

5

10

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Sp

ark

ling

Volu

me

– M

n b

ott

les

Sti

ll V

olu

me

– M

n b

ott

les

Still Wine Sparkling Wine

GROWTH

(+1.0% CAGR)

STAGNATION

(-0.3% CAGR)

STABILITY

(+0.0% CAGR)

Global Still & Sparkling Wine Volume 2003-23

(Mn bottles)

Source: The IWSR

Still and Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free


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Overall still wine development is static, but this fact obscures dynamic shifts at a regional level.

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

-3% 0% 3% 6%

Volu

me

CA

GR

20

13

-18

Volume CAGR 2018-23

Still Wine Consumption 2023 - Mn bottles

-332

-48

27

87

97

-400 0

Europe

CIS

Asia Pacific

Americas

Africa & Middle East

Growth ‘18-23 - Mn bottles

Bubble = Forecast volume 2023

Source: The IWSR

Still wine, excludes Duty Free


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Overall sparkling wine growth is positive; all regions are forecast to grow to 2023 but at varying rates.

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

-3% 0% 3% 6%

Volu

me

CA

GR

20

13

-18

Volume CAGR 2018-23

Sparkling Wine Consumption 2023 - Mn bottles

9

16

42

42

77

0 50 100

Africa & Middle East

Asia Pacific

CIS

Europe

Americas


Source: The IWSR

Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free



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The global wine industry faces a complex set of challenges and opportunities

Challenges

• Generational Change

• Competition

• Climate change

• Regulations

• Route-to-market

Opportunities

• Value Growth

• Sparkling Wine

• Moderation


• Geographic Expansion

• ‘Craft’

• ‘Category Blur’


Five Key Markets

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…But first, why focus on five markets?

Market Total Vol 2018 Total

Rank CAGR ‘13-18 Rationale

France 3.25 Bn 3 -2.0% • Leading producer of wines & organic wines

• Leading consumer of organic wines

Germany 3.10 Bn 4 -1.2%

• Biggest imported wine consumer

• Biggest sparkling wine consumer

• Biggest organic wine consumer

Italy 3.64 Bn 2 +1.1%

• Leading producer of wines & organic wines

• Second largest sparkling wine consumer

• Most consumed (imported) country of origin

Spain 1.06 Bn 9 -0.8% • Leading producer of wines & organic wines

• Second most consumed (imported) country of origin

United States 4.26 Bn 1 +1.4%

• Largest consumer of still & sparkling wines

• One of the most diverse wine markets

• One of the most receptive to change

Source: The IWSR



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Organic wine is strongly outperforming non-organic wines, but doing so off a low base

0

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700

800

900

1 000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Org

an

ic V

olu

me

– M

n b

ott

les

No

n-O

rga

nic

Vo

lum

e –

Mn

bo

ttle

s

Non-Organic Organic

Wine Consumption 2013-23 – by Five Key Markets

Mn bottles

Source: The IWSR


97,3%

2,7%

Non-Organic Organic

Total Consumption 2018

15.72 Bn

Bottles +140%

-1%

Consumption – Organic Wine Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020

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Healthy volume growth is expected across all key markets; Spain stands out in terms of the rate of growth, but this is from a low base

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Volu

me

CA

GR

20

13

-18

Volume CAGR 2018-23

Organic Wine Consumption – by Five Key Markets

Mn bottles

20

24

38

38

90

0 50 100

Italy

Spain

Germany

United States

France


Consumption – Organic Wine


Source: The IWSR



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The value outlook diverges from volume as organic wines plays in different markets price points across key markets. The change in

dynamic between Germany and the United States is noticeable.

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

[CELLRANGE]

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Valu

e C

AG

R 2

01

3-1

8

Value CAGR 2018-23

Organic Wine Consumption – by Five Key Markets

Mn €

244

292

293

561

1 153

0 1 000

Italy

Spain

Germany

United States

France

Consumption – Organic Wine

Bubble = Forecast value 2023

Source: The IWSR


Growth ‘18-23 - Mn €


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Red wine dominates across the five key markets and is driven by Germany and France. Even in the largest organic white wine consumer,

Germany, white is behind red in volume terms. Rosé is developing fast off a low base, notably in the US and Spain.

0%

25%

50%

0

30

60

90

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

US

A

Ita

ly

Sp

ain

Vo

lum

e %

CA

GR

‘13

-18

Vo

lum

e –

Mn

bo

ttle

s

0%

25%

50%

0

30

60

90

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

US

A

Ita

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ain

Vo

lum

e %

CA

GR

‘13

-18

Vo

lum

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bo

ttle

s

0%

25%

50%

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90

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

US

A

Ita

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Sp

ain

Vo

lum

e %

CA

GR

’13

-18

Vo

lum

e –

Mn

bo

ttle

s

Organic Still Wine Consumption by colour – by Five Key Countries Volume 2018 vs 5yr CAGR

Mn bottles

Red White Rosé

Consumption – Organic Still Wine

Source: The IWSR

Still wine only, excludes Duty Free

= Volume 2018 = CAGR 2013-18


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Production – Key points and caveats

• Dark area

• Multiple sources

• Conflation of certified organic and

organic

• Non-disclosure

• Regulations

Production – Organic Wine Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020

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Organic wine has experienced strong average annual growth in production over the past five years. This rate of expansion is expected to remain

constant over the forecast period.

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1 000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Spain Italy France United States Germany

Pro

du

ctio

n –

Mn

bo

ttle

s

Organic Wine Production – by Five Key Countries

(Mn bottles)

CAGR

2013-18

9.4%

8.5%

7.3%

16.9%

4.8%

3.9%

2018-23

9.3%

7.9%

11.9%

11.2%

4.4%

4.0%

Production – Organic Wine

Source: The IWSR

Still and Sparkling wine

Projections 2020-23


The Opportunity

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The Opportunity

Opportunities

• Value Growth

• Sparkling Wine

• Moderation


• Geographic Expansion

• ‘Craft’

• ‘Category Blur’


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2013 2018 2023

Geographic expansion

Volume (Bottles)

< 0.5m

0.5m – 1m

1m – 2m

2m – 10m

10m – 50m

> 50m


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Any questions?

the organic wine market 2013-23 · red wine dominates across the five key markets and is driven by...

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