the outlook for energy...exxonmobil 2012 outlook for energy 0 3 6 9 12 15 1990 2015 2040 mbtu /...

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Todd Onderdonk

Corporate Strategic Planning

Clingendael International Energy Programme

April 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes

in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future

Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission

of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

100 countries

15 demand

sectors

20 fuel

types

Energy Outlook Model

technology & policy

Population Growth Drives Energy Demand

Billion

World Population

1800 2040 1900 2000

Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil

0

3

6

9

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile

Billion

OECD China India

Age 0 – 14

Age 15 – 64

Age 65+

Africa

2010 2040

Source: World Bank


0

25

50

75

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Efficiency Moderates Demand

Trillion 2005 $

OECD GDP

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD Demand

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD


0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand

Trillion 2005 $

Non OECD GDP

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Non OECD Demand

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian


The Tale of Two Worlds

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD Energy Demand

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Non OECD Energy Demand

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian


0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 2015 2040

MBTU / 2005$ GDP MBTU / 2005$ GDP

-0.9%

-1.9%

Energy per GDP Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 - 2040

0.9%

Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2015 2040

~500

Quads

Quadrillion BTUs

Demand

What demand would be

without efficiency gains

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 2015 2040

MBTU / 2005$ GDP MBTU / 2005$ GDP

Energy per GDP

Constant 2010

Level


0

40

80

120

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU 27 Energy Trends

Billion

Population GDP Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs


2010 – 2040

0.0%


2010 – 2040

1.8%


2010 – 2040

-0.2%


Transportation

90% By 2040, 90% of

transportation will run on

liquid petroleum-based fuels.


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth

Personal

MBDOE

Commercial

MBDOE

Light Duty Vehicles

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Vehicles


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million Vehicles

Rest of OECD

Rest of Non

OECD

China

United States

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

On-Road MPG

2020-2025 Target

2015 Target

2010


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type

Conv. Gasoline

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EV

Natural gas/LPG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 On-Road MPG

2010

2020-2025 Target

2015 Target

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency


0

100

200

300

400

500

North

America

Europe

OECD

Other OECD China India Middle East Latin

America

Other Non

OECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2010

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles


0

100

200

300

400

500

North

America

Europe

OECD


America

Other Non

OECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2025


Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles




0

100

200

300

400

500

North

America

Europe

OECD


America

Other Non

OECD

PHV/EV

Full Hybrid

CNG

LPG

Diesel Conv

Mogas Conv

2040


Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles




0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2040

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU27 Personal Transportation Declines

MBDOE Demand Changes

Distance per

Vehicle

Mandated Fleet

Fuel

Economy

Other

Transportation MBDOE

Light Duty

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Marine

Rail

ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook

Refining Converts Oil Into Many Products

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Refining: Link between crude oil production and products demand

Crude Oil Input

Diesel

Gasoline

Refinery

LPG / Propane

Gasoline

Chemicals feed

Wax/Asphalt

Lubes/Other

Fuel oil

Aviation fuels

Diesel


Refinery Yield Changes Evolve Gradually

Source: Eurostat

• Europe diesel production

share has gradually

increased while petrol

production share has fallen to

better align with local demand

• Few alternative technologies

exist to economically produce

wax, petcoke, and asphalt –

all of which contribute to

needs across the economy

Significant investment is required to gradually shift refinery product mix

Europe Petroleum Product Yields

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 2000 2005

Percent of Production

LPG

Aviation Fuel

Gasoline

Diesel

Chemicals feed

Fuel Oil

Wax/Petcoke/Asphalt

Other

2009


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel

MBDOE

OECD

Gasoline

Ethanol

Diesel

Biodiesel

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

Other

MBDOE

Non OECD


Electricity Generation

+80% By 2040, worldwide

electricity demand will be

80% higher.


Global Capacity Utilized

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

'10 '40 '10 '40 '10 '40

Global Capacity GW

Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2015 2040

k TWh By Generation

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas


0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

k TWh

Gas

Nuclear Coal

Wind

Other Renewables

Gas w/ CCS

Coal w/ CCS

Electricity Supply Varies Globally

United States k TWh

China

Oil

k TWh

Europe

* Generation by Type


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

OECD Non OECD

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

OECD Non OECD

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2015 2040

Emissions per GDP Tons / 2005$ k GDP

2010

2040

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Moderate

Billion Tons

CO2 Emissions Emissions per Capita Tons / Person

OECD

Non OECD

2010

2040


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /

Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

0.7%

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

2010

2040

-0.2%

1.6%

2.2% 0.3%

6.0% 1.6%


2010 - 2040

0.9%


Supply

By 2040

60% of global demand will be

supplied by oil & gas.

1930s

1940s 1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

0

20

40

60

80

100

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Global Oil Production by Discovery Date

Discovered before 1930

MBDOE

Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

MBDOE

Liquids Supply

Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify

Conventional Crude and Condensate

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Tight Oil

Biofuels

0

1

2

3

4

5

2040

Remaining

Resource

Cumulative

Production

TBO

Resource *

* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was

authorized in advance by IHS.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

North America*

Europe

OECD

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

1.3

4.1

2.6

2.3

8.1

4.9

4.8

Global Gas Resource

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

•World: ~250 years coverage at current demand

•Large unconventional gains anticipated

World

Russia/Caspian*


Natural Gas Development Stages

1. Drilling

2. Hydraulic Fracturing

3. Production

4. Gas treatment and transportation


Protecting Water Resources

Ground water

protection is assured

by rock and well

casing design.

The actual gas

resource is under

up to 14,000 feet/

4,000 meters of

solid rock layers.

Near the surface,

where ground water

must be protected,

the well is encased

in multiple layers

of steel casing and

cement.

Thousands of feet

of solid rock


Natural Gas Development: Typical Timeline

Days to Drill/Complete One Well

Years of Production

0 32 ~114

Well pad construction 10 - 20

2 - 3 Rigging put up

8 - 60 Drilling

2 - 3 Rigging taken down

7 - 14 Hydraulic fracturing

2 - 4 Flowback

7 - 10 Facilities installation

1 25 40


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases

BCFD

Production by Type

Unconventional

Conventional

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

BCFD

Demand by Region

North America

Middle East

AP Non OECD

Rest of OECD

Russia/Caspian

Rest of

Non OECD


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies

BCFD

North America

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

BCFD

Europe Asia Pacific BCFD

Conventional

Pipeline

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040


0

15

30

45

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU 27 Natural Gas Demand

Total Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Gas By Sector

BCFD

Oil

Coal

Gas

Other

Electricity

Generation

Industrial

Res/Comm

Transportation

0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Percent

Global Percent Mix of Fuels

1800 1900 2000 1850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

2040

Economic and Energy Evolution

Quadrillion BTUs

Global Demand By Fuel

1800 1900 2000 1850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Hydro

2040 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)


Regional Energy Trends Evolve

Percent

By Region

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

Other AP

Southeast Asia

India

China

Russia/Caspian

Europe

North America

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040


Conclusions

the outlook for energy...exxonmobil 2012 outlook for energy 0 3 6 9 12 15 1990 2015 2040 mbtu /...

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