the outlook for energy midwest brand meeting april 19, 2006 midwest brand meeting april 19, 2006 j....

The Outlook for EnergyThe Outlook for EnergyMidwest Brand MeetingApril 19, 2006Midwest Brand MeetingApril 19, 2006

J. Patrick McGinnManager, Midwest Public Affairs

J. Patrick McGinnManager, Midwest Public Affairs

A 2030 ViewA 2030 View

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differmaterially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein

(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differmaterially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein

(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

World GDP Grows by 2.8% AnnuallyWorld GDP Grows by 2.8% Annually

2003 World GDP$36.3 Trillion


2003$ GDP Level2003$ GDP Level

North AmericaNorth America

Latin America

Latin America

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian

AfricaAfrica

Middle EastMiddle East

IndiaIndia Other APOther AP

ChinaChinaJapanJapan

EuropeEurope$11.9 T$11.9 T

$1.8T$1.8T$0.7T$0.7T

$0.6T$0.6T $2.5T$2.5T

$1.4T$1.4T$4.3T$4.3T

$12.2T$12.2T

$0.6T$0.6T

$0.7T$0.7T

World GDP Grows by 2.8% AnnuallyWorld GDP Grows by 2.8% Annually

$23.9 T$23.9 T


2.6%*2.6%*

Latin America

Latin America

3.2%3.2%

3.5%3.5%


$1.6T$1.6T

3.3%3.3%

AfricaAfrica$1.6T$1.6T

2.8%2.8%

Middle EastMiddle East$1.5T$1.5T

5.1%5.1%

IndiaIndia

$2.2T$2.2T

3.6%3.6%

Other APOther AP

$6.4T$6.4T



2030 Increase in GDP2030 Increase in GDP

6.3%6.3%

ChinaChina

$7.4T$7.4T

1.1%1.1%

JapanJapan$5.8T$5.8T

* 2003-2030 Annual Growth Rate* 2003-2030 Annual Growth Rate

EuropeEurope

$20.6T$20.6T

2.0%2.0%

$4.3T$4.3T

2003$ GDP Level2003$ GDP Level

Population Grows 27% by 2030Population Grows 27% by 2030

Latin AmericaLatin America

321M321MNorth AmericaNorth America

539M539M

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian288M288M

AfricaAfrica848M848M


IndiaIndia1,061M1,061M

Other APOther AP1,032M1,032M

JapanJapan

EuropeEurope579M579M

182M182M127M127M

2003 World Population6.3 Billion


ChinaChina1,292M1,292M

2003 Population Level2003 Population Level

Population Grows 27% by 2030Population Grows 27% by 2030



0.3%*0.3%*

1.1%1.1%723M723M

-0.1%-0.1%


1.6%1.6%

AfricaAfrica

1,311M1,311M

1.7%1.7%


288M288M

1.0%1.0%

IndiaIndia

1,393M1,393M 1.2%1.2%

Other APOther AP

1,414M1,414M



2003 Population Level2003 Population Level

2030 Increase in Population2030 Increase in Population

2030 Decrease in Population2030 Decrease in Population

0.5%0.5%

ChinaChina

0.0%0.0%

EuropeEurope -0.4%-0.4%

JapanJapan

* 2003-2030 Annual Growth Rate* 2003-2030 Annual Growth Rate

380M380M

279M279M

1,482M1,482M

586M586M

114M114M

GDP per Capita in Developing Areas Still SmallGDP per Capita in Developing Areas Still Small


AfricaAfrica$0.8K$0.8K

Middle EastMiddle East$4.0K$4.0K

IndiaIndia$0.5K$0.5K

Other APOther AP$2.4K$2.4K

2003$ GDP per capita Level2003$ GDP per capita Level

ChinaChina$1.1K$1.1K

EuropeEurope

JapanJapanLatin AmericaLatin America

$3.4K$3.4K

GDP per capita1980 2003 2030

Developed 19.7 30.2 49.9Developing 1.2 1.5 3.6



$36.9K$36.9K

$21.0K$21.0K

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian$2.1K$2.1K

$33.9K$33.9K

GDP per Capita in Developing Areas Still SmallGDP per Capita in Developing Areas Still Small

$62.8K$62.8K


2.0%*2.0%*

3.6%3.6%

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian$5.6K$5.6K

1.6%1.6%

AfricaAfrica$1.2K$1.2K

1.0%1.0%

Middle EastMiddle East$5.3K$5.3K

4.1%4.1%

IndiaIndia$1.6K$1.6K

2.4%2.4%

Other APOther AP$4.6K$4.6K

2003$ GDP per capita Level2003$ GDP per capita Level

2030 Increase in GDP per capita2030 Increase in GDP per capita

5.8%5.8%

ChinaChina$5.0K$5.0K

1.9%1.9%

EuropeEurope

$35.1K$35.1K

1.5%1.5%

JapanJapan

$51.0K$51.0K

* 2003-2030 Growth Rate* 2003-2030 Growth Rate


2.1%2.1%

$5.9K$5.9K





Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy SourcesOil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

80 90 00 10 20 30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

80 90 00 10 20 30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

80 90 00 10 20 30

1.71.7

1.41.4

2.22.2

1.51.5

1.21.2

0.80.8

2.12.1 9.59.5

1.51.5

2.72.7

2.22.2

1.01.0

1.51.5

5.95.9

2.22.2

Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar

HydroHydro

NuclearNuclear

Biomass,MSW

Biomass,MSW

Wind & SolarWind & Solar

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

Growth Rate2003-2030, %Growth Rate2003-2030, %

SolarSolar

WindWind

MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

Growth Rate1980-2003, %Growth Rate1980-2003, %

1.61.6 1.71.7

11.111.1

Carbon Growth led by Developing Asia PowerCarbon Growth led by Developing Asia Power

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970198019902000201020202030

Mid East/Africa

Latin America

Developing Asia

Asia OECD

Europe/Russia/Caspian

North America

Carbon EmissionsBillion Tons/Yr

Carbon Emissions Growth2001 to 2030Billion Tons/Yr

0

1

2

3

4

5

Total Power

Transportation Demand Shapes the Oil BarrelTransportation Demand Shapes the Oil Barrel

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

DevelopingMBD

DevelopedMBD

RoadRoad

Air, Marine, RailAir, Marine, Rail

Non-TransportNon-Transport

Transport RelatedTransport Related

Efficiency Gains ReturnEfficiency Gains Return

0

10

20

30

40

50

19751980 198519901995 20002005 201020152020 20252030

U.S. Light Duty Vehicle TrendsMPG

New VehicleEfficiency

~2.2% per year 80% Mix

Diesel/Hyb

rid

Tec

hnology

Advan

ce

Road Fuels - Trucks Drive DieselRoad Fuels - Trucks Drive Diesel

Asia PacificNorth America Europe

Diesel

Mogas

Diesel Share (%) of New Car Sales

MBD

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2010 2020 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2010 2020 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2010 2020 2030

2010 2012 2015 2 2 2

2010 2012 2015 9 9 10

2010 2012 2015 37 43 43

96%*

71% 83%

* % Diesel for Commercial Use

Road Fuels - Trucks Drive Diesel Road Fuels - Trucks Drive Diesel

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2010 2020 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2010 2020 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2010 2020 2030

Asia PacificNorth America Europe

Sensitivity

Diesel

Mogas

2010 2012 2015 2 2 2 2 20 50

2010 2012 2015 9 9 10 8 20 50

Diesel Share (%) of New Car Sales

MBD2010 2012 2015 37 43 43

Hybrid Vehicles Have Highest PotentialHybrid Vehicles Have Highest Potential

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 2 4 6 8

Wel

l-to-

Whe

el g

CO

2/m

ileW

ell-t

o-W

heel

g C

O2/

mile

Fuel Cost (cents/mile, ex. tax)Fuel Cost (cents/mile, ex. tax)

Sources: Argonne National Lab, Toyota, NRC, IEA, EM analysisSources: Argonne National Lab, Toyota, NRC, IEA, EM analysis

United States - Mid-Size CarsUnited States - Mid-Size Cars

CamryCamry

Ultimate VehicleUltimate Vehicle

European DieselEuropean Diesel

Prius IIPrius II

Hybrid Vehicles Have Highest PotentialHybrid Vehicles Have Highest Potential

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 2 4 6 8

Wel

l-to-

Whe

el g

CO

2/m

ileW

ell-t

o-W

heel

g C

O2/

mile

United States - Mid-Size CarsUnited States - Mid-Size Cars

Prius IIPrius II H2 FCV (Current)H2 FCV (Current)

CamryCamry

H2 FCV (Future)H2 FCV (Future)

European DieselEuropean Diesel

Fuel Cost (cents/mile, ex. tax)Fuel Cost (cents/mile, ex. tax)

Sources: Argonne National Lab, Toyota, NRC, IEA, EM analysisSources: Argonne National Lab, Toyota, NRC, IEA, EM analysis

Ultimate VehicleUltimate Vehicle

Efficiency More than Offsets NA DemandEfficiency More than Offsets NA Demand

2003 2030 2003 2030 2003 2030

Number Vehicles (Million) 235 325 230 270 55 420

Efficiency (MPG)Fleet 20.5 29.0 31.5 39.0 19.0 25.0New Sales 21.0 38.0 35.0 43.0 20.0 29.0

Advanced ICE/Diesel % Sales 1% 42% 39% 57% 13% 22%

Light Duty Fuels (MBD) 9.5 8.8 3.7 3.6 1.8 7.9

Carbon Emissions (G Tonnes/Yr) 0.35 0.33 0.14 0.14 0.07 0.30

North America Europe Emerging AP

Cars/1000 730 855 395 460 15 100

Efficiency More than Offsets NA & EU DemandEfficiency More than Offsets NA & EU Demand

2003 2030 2003 2030 2003 2030







Cars/1000 730 855 395 460 15 100

Emerging Asia Drives Fuels & Emissions GrowthEmerging Asia Drives Fuels & Emissions Growth

2003 2030 2003 2030 2003 2030







Cars/1000 730 855 395 460 15 100

Large Oil Resources ExistLarge Oil Resources Exist

Locations of Major DepositsTrillions ofBarrels

Oil in Place

0

2

4

6

8

ConventionalOil

EHO/OilSands

Oil Shale

Produced

World Liquids Production OutlookWorld Liquids Production Outlook

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

NonOPEC Crude + Condensate

NGL’s, OPEC Condensate, Other

MBDMBD

Canadian Oil Sands

World Liquids Production OutlookWorld Liquids Production Outlook

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

NonOPEC Crude + Condensate

NGL’s, OPEC Condensate, Other

MBDMBD

Canadian Oil Sands

Liquids Demand OPEC

2823

~30~41

~50

World Gas DemandWorld Gas Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

EmergingAsia

EmergingAsia

By RegionGCFD

NorthAmericaNorth

America

EuropeEurope

Japan/Aus/NZJapan/Aus/NZ

LALA

ME/AFME/AF


0

50

100

150

200

250GCFD

Growth2000-2030

Economies Sectors

Developing 74%

Developing 74%

Industrialized 26%

Industrialized 26%

Power Generation 48%

Res/Comm 20%

Industrial 32%

Ind.Ind.

Dev.Dev.

Gas Trade Grows Increasingly SignificantGas Trade Grows Increasingly Significant

Total Regional TradeNet Exports, GCFDNet Imports, GCFD & % Regional Demand

Total Regional TradeNet Exports, GCFDNet Imports, GCFD & % Regional Demand

2010 2020 20302010 2020 2030


Total EuropeTotal Europe


Asia PacificAsia Pacific


AfricaAfricaMiddle EastMiddle East

53% 65% 70% 53% 65% 70%

48 85 11048 85 110

5 15 22 5 15 22

4 7 9 4 7 9

34 52 62 34 52 62 9 18 26 9 18 26

16 21 2516 21 2510 21 3110 21 31

18 36 45 18 36 45

9% 18% 21% 9% 18% 21%

10% 18% 24% 10% 18% 24%

Technology Critical to Extend ResourcesTechnology Critical to Extend Resources

• Exploration– 3-D seismic– Advanced interpretation

• Drilling– Extended horizontal reach– Complex well profiles

• Offshore– Deepwater drilling– Floating production units

• Reservoir Management– Digital reservoir simulation– Optimized drilling

• Field Development– Offshore arctic– Remote offtake

Sakhalin-1 Chayvo Field Development

Groundbreaking Research UnderwayGroundbreaking Research Underway

“The problems we faceare extraordinarily

complex in scope andscale. No one

university, no singlecompany, not even a

single country can solvethem all. That’s why this

project is important.”

John Hennessy,Stanford University

President

• $225 million over 10 years from:– ExxonMobil– General Electric– Schlumberger– Toyota

GCEP: Researching commercially viableenergy technologies that can substantially

reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Summary ConclusionsSummary Conclusions Economic growth generates increased demand for energy

Rising personal incomes and living standards in developing Asia Worldwide consumption grows to 335 MBDOE in 2030

Supporting demand growth requires accelerated efficiency gains Portfolio of consumer acceptable options must be progressed Efficiency gains aid compliance with environmental standards

Providing timely & adequate supplies is large scale, long term challenge Continued investment in new technology to provide economic supplies Uncertain access and pace for OPEC and Russia projects

Application of new technology best way to meet challenges Growing and developing the resource base Improving efficiency and reducing emissions

Diversity of energy mix increasing longer term Increasing opportunity for new coal, nuclear and bio-fuels

Economic growth compromised if supply or demand challenges not met

Supplemental/AlternateCharts

World Energy Demand Grows 1.7% Per YearWorld Energy Demand Grows 1.7% Per Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

EmergingAsia

EmergingAsia

By RegionMBDOE

NorthAmerica

NorthAmerica

EuropeEurope


LALA

ME/AFME/AF


World Energy Demand Grows 1.7% Per YearWorld Energy Demand Grows 1.7% Per Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

EmergingAsia

EmergingAsia

By RegionMBDOE

NorthAmericaNorth

America

EuropeEurope


LALA

ME/AFME/AF

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

By FuelMBDOE

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

NuclearNuclear

HydroHydro

Bio/MSWBio/MSW

Solar/WindSolar/Wind



1970 2000 2030

Transport RelatedTransport Related

58.5%58.5%

62.9%62.9%

Non-TransportNon-Transport46.946.9

76.576.5

116.7116.7

World Oil Demand Use (MBD)

45.5%45.5%


1970 2000 2030

Trans RelatedTrans Related

45.5 58.5 62.9

Air, Rail, WaterAir, Rail, Water

RoadRoad

Non-TransportNon-Transport

World Oil Demand Use (MBD)

46.946.9

76.576.5

116.7116.7

Transport Share %

Carbon EmissionsCarbon Emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19902000201020202030

Developed

Developing

Bn TonnesCarbon

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19902000201020202030

PowerIndustrialTransportRes/Comm

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19902000201020202030

Gas

Oil

Coal

Bn TonnesCarbon

Bn TonnesCarbon

The Move to Deeper WaterThe Move to Deeper Water

Hoover/Diana-GOM4800 ft, 2000

Hondo-CA850 ft, 1976Hondo-CA850 ft, 1976

Harmony-CA1200 ft, 1989

Lena-GOM1000 ft, 1983

Zinc-GOM1480 ft, 1993

West Delta-GOM168 ft, 1962

West Delta-GOM168 ft, 1962

Mica-GOM4350 ft, 2001

Grand Isle-GOM50 ft, 1947

Kizomba A-Angola4000 ft, 2004

Key Technology Advancements in Mature FieldsKey Technology Advancements in Mature Fields

Key technology advancements

3D-Seismic

Greater Ability to image hydrocarbonsbelow the surface

Reservoir Modeling

Optimizing well locations

Directional Capability

Reaching out further with greateraccuracy

Background Production began in 1976 Number of slots 40 Number of wells drilled 80 Original EUR 600 MOEB Current produced OEB 1,150 MOEB Current forecast EUR 1,360 MOEB

Beryl Alpha Platform

Supplemental TransportDiscussion

Replace "Efficiency Gains Returns" chart with this block

Efficiency Gains Offset by Sales Mix & WeightEfficiency Gains Offset by Sales Mix & Weight

MPG

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CA

FE

Pickup/SUVSales Share


Avg. Vehicle Weight - Tons

Source: U.S. EPA


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MPG

CA

FE

~New VehicleEfficiency MPG@ 1980 weight


5.4 MPG


Source: U.S. EPA


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MPG

CA

FE



Brent Crude Price2004 $

Source: U.S. EPA

Jul '04YTDAvg.

the outlook for energy midwest brand meeting april 19, 2006 midwest brand meeting april 19, 2006 j....

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