the outlook for energy · the outlook for energy: a view to 2040 bill colton december 9, 2014 . 2...

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The Outlook for Energy:

A View to 2040 Bill Colton December 9, 2014

2

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

trade

flows

Energy Outlook Development

100 countries

15 demand

sectors

20 fuel

types

technology & policy

3


13,000 AA batteries

4,000 smart phone batteries

Energy Measures and Units

24,500 BTU 1 log =

5 logs 1 gallon gasoline =

1 gallon gasoline 36 kWh =

4


2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita Energy Demand

7

6

Household Use

Personal Transportation

6

Commercial Transportation

4

Industrial

11

Commercial Buildings

34

Total

7

5


2010 World Daily Energy Demand

34

U.S. Per Capita

7

Times 7 billion people =

~12 billion gallons per day

260 MBDOE

525 QUADS

9

World Per Capita

1.7

6


Global Progress Drives Demand

Population

Billion

GDP

Trillion 2010$

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD*

Key Growth

China

India

Rest of World

Energy

Savings

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

7


PPP 2005$k

Standards of Living Increase in the Non OECD

2040 GDP per Capita

2010


8


The Middle Class Continues to Grow

Billion People

China

India

Key Growth

Rest of World

OECD*

Middle Class per The Brookings Institution

Brazil

Mexico

South

Africa

Nigeria

Saudi

Arabia

Indonesia

Thailand

Egypt

China

India

Turkey

Iran


9


Primary Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

‘10

‘25

‘40

Transportation Res/Comm Industrial Electricity

Generation

Electricity Generation Leads Growth

10


Primary Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity Generation Leads Growth

Non OECD

OECD

‘10

‘25

‘40

Transportation Res/Comm Industrial Electricity

Generation

11


Transportation

12


Sector Demand

MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

13


2040 LDV Fleet

Base Fleet

Population Growth

Improved Standard of Living

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand

World LDV Demand

MBDOE

Improved Standard

of Living

Population Growth

Million


Energy

Savings

14


Light Duty Vehicles

Fleet by Type

Million

15


OECD*

Key Growth

China

India

Rest of World

Heavy Duty Demand by Region

Heavy Duty Transportation

MBDOE


Heavy Duty Demand by Fuel

MBDOE

Gasoline

Diesel

Other

Gas

16


z

Industrial

17


Industrial Demand

Industrial Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

Other

Energy Industry

Heavy Industry

Chemical

Plastics

Fertilizer

Paint

Steel Textiles

Liquid

Fuels

Coal Natural Gas

Agriculture Lubricants

Asphalt

Automobiles

18


Electricity Generation

19


Improved

Standard of Living

Population Growth

Electricity Demand

Electricity Demand by Region

Thousand TWh

Electricity Demand

Thousand TWh

United States

India

Europe

China

Key Growth

2014

Industrial Growth

Base Demand

20


Fuel Choices for Power Generation

Source: EPRI, Generation Technology Assessment

Relative

benefit/impact Coal

Coal w/

CCS

Natural

Gas Nuclear Wind

Solar

Photovoltaic

More Favorable Less Favorable

Construction Cost

Land Use

Water Requirements

Non-CO2 Emissions

Waste Products

Flexibility

Electricity Cost

CO2 Emissions

Availability

21


Electricity Generation Fuel by Region

Quadrillion BTUs

‘10 ‘25 ‘40

Key Growth

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Solar Wind

Other


22


Global Demand

2040 By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 - 2040

1.0%

2010

0.8%

1.6%

2.3% 0.5%

5.8% 1.8%

0.1%

23


CO2 Emissions

24


World Emissions

Billion metric tonnes

CO2 Emissions by Region

OECD*

Rest of World

India

China

Key Growth


Emissions per Capita

Tonnes / Person

‘10

‘40

25


Supply

z

z

26


Conventional

Crude & Condensate

Liquids Supply

MBDOE

World Supply by Type

Trillion Barrels

Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates

Biofuels Other

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

Natural Gas Liquids

Deepwater

Developed Conventional

Crude & Condensate

New Conventional

C&C Development

Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates

27


Liquids Trade Balance by Region

North

America

MBDOE

Other

Natural Gas Liquids

Biofuels

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Conventional C&C Development

Conventional Crude & Condensate

Demand

‘10 ‘30 ‘20 ‘40 ‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40

28


Liquids Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

MBDOE

Biofuels

Natural Gas Liquids

Other

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Conventional C&C Development

Conventional Crude & Condensate

Demand

‘10 ‘30 ‘40 ‘20

29


Gas Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

BCFD

‘10 ‘30 ‘40 ‘20

Demand

Unconventional Production

Conventional Production

30


Indicative trade flows

Energy Trade

31


Local Production

Pipeline

LNG

Local Production

Energy Trade

BCFD

Gas Demand Liquids Demand

MBDOE

Imports/Exports

32


Developing Economies Dominate Growth

OECD*

Rest of World

India

China

Key Growth

Quadrillion BTUs

Demand by Region


33


Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro Nuclear

Other Renewables

Quadrillion BTUs

Demand by Fuel

34

The Outlook for Energy:

A View to 2040

the outlook for energy · the outlook for energy: a view to 2040 bill colton december 9, 2014 . 2...

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