the panama canal into the container era 2012... · wcsa eur total 321,2 125,4 27,8 22,9 prof....

The Panama Canal into the Container Era

Prof. Jacques Charlier & Dr. Yann Alix

The Royal Academy for Overseas Sciences International Colloquium « Interoceanic Canals & World Seaborne Trade».

Brussels, 2012 June 7th-9th.

Dr. Yann ALIX General Delegate SEFACIL Foundation Le Havre – France Pr. Jacques CHARLIER President, Royal Academy For Overseas Sciences Brussels – Belgium

http://www.panamascanal.com/

The 80 km-long Panama canal has been built accross the

Panama isthmus, first unsuccessfully by a French private

company, then by US Isthmian Canal Commission

Whereas the Suez canal is serving a single

shipping route, the Panama canal is at the

crossroads of several shipping routes

Whereas the Suez canal was digged at sea level,

without locks, there are three sets of parallel locks

in Panama, rising ships by 26.5 m, then another

three sets of parallel locks lowering them

Digging a canal accross the Panama isthmus

was a much more difficult task than in Suez !

Panama’s 12 locks could accommodate

(most of) the largest capital ships of WW1 & WW2

After WW2, these locks became too small

for many tankers and bulkers, then

container and passenger ships

Panamax-sized container ships cannot carry

more than 4,500/5,000 TEUs (because of their

beam and length limited to 32.3 m and 290 m)

The traffic on the Panama canal in 2011

in Mio LT (Source PCA) NB Panama << Suez

Atlantic to

Pacific

Pacific to Atlantic

Overall traffic

Oil products

28.0

10.0

38.0

Containers

23.2

30.1

63.3

Other goods

62.1

52.9

115.0

Total

133.9

81.7

214.6

The recent evolution of the traffic on the

Panama canal in Mio LT (source PCA)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Grand total

211,6

199,4

196,1

197,9

215,5

214,6

Containers

53,0

50,0

57,3

51,5

54,9

63,3

% Containers

25,0

25,1

29,2

26,0

25,4

29,5

The size of the locks is a limiting factor, but

the increasing congestion is another one !

For containers, there is a local alternative, the

(short) landbridge operated by the Panama Railway

Company, a subsidiary of Kentucky Southern)

A third series of six, much larger locks is being

built were the US Navy was planning to build mega

locks for its mega battleships of the Montana class

These new locks will accomodate a new

generation of newpanamax-sized ships

(including 12,000 TEU container ships)

These locks will not be the largest in the

world, but there will be six of theses !

Works are under way at these locks and

elsewhere along the old canal, and the

enlarged canal should open by 2014/2015

However, a series of container ships are already

too large (in beam and length) for the new locks

(including Maersk’ E and E3 series)

This why the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (14

Mio TEUs in 2011) are not afraid of the competition with

the « all water route » via the enlarged canal

The ports of West coast are serving the rest of

the continent by efficient landbridges

World throughput, global transhipment & Gantry cranes worldwide

Prof. Jacques Charlier & Dr. Yann Alix The Royal Academy for Overseas Sciences

International Colloquium « Interoceanic Canals & World Seaborne Trade : Past, Present and Future ».

Brussels, 2012 June 7th to 9th.

2010 2010

From 211 to 548 millions Teu’s

2000

2000

2010 2010

From 60 to 160 millions Teu’s

2000

2000

Less than 20 in 2000

3200 Super post-Panamax Gantries in 2010

4900 Gantry Cranes in 2010

2600 Gantry Cranes in 2000

Source : Drewry Maritime Research

2012

Source : Fritz Pinnock – CMI 2012

Route Services Capacity Vessels Asia-USEC 13 3,008,960 120 WCSA-Eur 8 1,097,730 56 Pendulum 3 747,626 41 WCSA-USEC 3 378,975 18 USWC-Eur 2 283,155 14 Asia-Carib. 1 239,232 11

S.

America

Dr. Yann ALIX 2012

Source : Compair Data – 2011

Sou

rce

: Pan

ama

Can

al A

uth

ori

ty

Caribbean Seas and Panama Main Hubs and Maritime Services

O / D Matrix Cargo (in million of long tons - 2011)

1- USA 144.4 2- CHINA 53.1 3- CHILE 28.9 4- JAPAN 22.6 5- S. KOREA 19.1 6- PERU 15,3 7- COLOMBIA 14,7 8- ECUADOR 14,5 9- MEXICO 12,5 10- PANAMA 12,0

O / D Matrix Cargo (in million of long tons - 2011)

1- USA 144.4 2- CHINA 53.1 3- CHILE 28.9 4- JAPAN 22.6 5- S. KOREA 19.1 6- PERU 15,3 7- COLOMBIA 14,7 8- ECUADOR 14,5 9- MEXICO 12,5 10- PANAMA 12,0

- 2/3 of the total in / out of the USA - 6 of the TOP 10 in Latin America - 2/3 of the total in / out of the USA - 6 of the TOP 10 in Latin America

Main trade routes using the Panama Canal

Fiscal Year 2011

Yann ALIX

Fondation SEFACIL

ASIA

USEC

WCSA

EUR

Total 321,2 125,4

27,8

22,9


International Colloquium « Interoceanic Canals & World Seaborne Trade : Past, Present and Future ». Brussels, 2012 June 7th to 9th.

Teu’s per Thousand population 2011

N. A

mer

ica

W. E

uro

pe

Far

East

Lati

n A

me

rica

Afr

ica

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 Source : Drewry Maritime Research 2012

Central America’s Extra Regional Trade Potential (with greater integration – Border Crossings & Customs)

CA to CA

CA to the USA

0 20 40 60

In million US$

Sou

rce

: LC

SSD

Eco

no

mic

s U

nit

– W

olr

d B

ank

20

10

4.9% 4.9%

16.4% 16.4%

15.6% 15.6%

Source : Jean Paul Rodrigue 2012

17,2%62,0%

18,6%

2,2%

Direct One Transshipment Two Transshipments Three Transshipments

Distribution of the Liner Shipping Port Calls in 2009…

… and the current competitive situation in the Caribbean Seas

63.1% 63.1%




The Global Hub Perspectives : are you ready to invest ?




Source : Fritz Pinnock & Yann Alix – CMI / Sefacil 2012

SELECTED TOP FIVE CARIBBEAN COMPETING GLOBAL HUB PORTS

Location Gantry Cranes

Terminal Area (ha)

Berth (m)

Depth (m)

Current Capacity (TEUs)

Planned Capacity

Global Operator Interest

Kingston, Jamaica

19 185 2,455 14.5 2,800,000 5,200,000 Self

Freeport, Bahamas

10 49 1,036 16 1,500,000 3,500,000 Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd

Manzanillo, Panama

14 52 1,940 14 1,300,000 4,000,000 Self

Colon, Panama

10 74 982 15 400,000 1,300,000 Evergreen Group

Caucedo, Dominica Republic

7 50 922 13.5 1,250,000 - Dubai Port

Sketch of « the » Caribbean Transshipment Hub & Intercontinental Hub & Spokes (as suggested at Kingston)

Located on the Main Pipe Route “Intermediary locations”

Deep natural water & Availability of very large terminal/yards

High productivity, low costs

& Fast throughput

Market oriented regulations

& presence of global private operator




Dr. Yann ALIX 2012

Addition of West Terminal Yard Space –

28.8 hectares (71.2 acres) will increase capacity to 3.2 million TEUs

Port of Kingston Transshipment & Domestic Traffic

(millions of teu’s – 2005 to 2009) 8,3

1,4

• 2 million TEUs designed to Handle Vessel up to 12,500 TEU • Dredged to 18 Metres • Additional Berthing of 2,500 Metres • New Gantry Cranes • Additional Terminal Yard Space of 70 Ha

« ZIM » facilities

« CMA CGM » facilities

The Super Combo ! For being the Big Winner of the Panama Canal Expansion Lottery…

Pure Transshipment

Activities …

World Logistics Centers…

Sub-Regional for the

Caribbean & South-North

Located on the Circum

West-East Services

« Make Panama the transshipment hub for the hemisphere, with ports on both oceans transshipping

cargo up and down the east & west coasts of North & South America as well as

Caribbean »

By Alberto Aleman Zubieta CEO – Panama Canal Authority March, 14, 2011 JoC




Dr. Yann ALIX 2012

Panama’s position as a premium quality to become the region’s primary hub




110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Ship

pin

g C

onnectivity I

ndex (

LSCI)

2010

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

GDP (US$ Billion) 2009

Singapore

Panama

Jamaica

Bahamas Dominican Rep.

Sou

rce : U

NC

TAD

, LCSI 2

01

1, W

B D

ata on

GD

P,

LCSSD

Econ

om

ics Un

it, WB

20

10

Direct effect of the Panama Canal

New Locks on Panama Ports connectivity

Direct effect of the Future Logistics zone & services

provided on the Panama Economy

Dr. Yann ALIX 2012

Panama’s position as a premium quality to become the region’s primary hub




Panama Port Company Cristobal & Balboa + Colon Container Terminal = MIT

From 235,000 teu’s in 1996…

… to 5,6 millions in 2010…

… to 8,4 millions in 2015

Dr. Yann ALIX 2012

http://www.pancanal.com/common/photo/galleries/colon/pl_images/colon-004.jpg

http://www.pancanal.com/common/photo/galleries/piclens/pl_images/balboa-021.jpg

Consortium of Asian developers to build $600 million post-Panamax facility at Atlantic entrance of canal




Panama will get a fourth container terminal, a new one in Colon at the Atlantic entrance to the canal, under a project that has been granted permits by the Panama Maritime Authority.

The $600 million terminal, which is designed to have an annual capacity of 2 million teu’s,

will be built by a consortium of private Asian developers called the Panama Colon Container Port LLC, with Jones Lang LaSalle acting as development adviser. The group is in final negotiations with one of the largest global terminal operators

to operate the 92-acre terminal after it is completed in the fall of 2014. “This will be the first terminal in Panama designed from the ground up for the post-Panamax era,” said John Carver, who heads up JLL’s global port infrastructure group. “This will be a big needle mover for Panama, one entirely built by private developers,” he said.

It is being built as a transshipment center to help eliminate some of the pressure

from the U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports that won’t be ready to accommodate the super post-Panamax vessels that will start sailing through the canal after 2014. (…)

PCCP is studying the possibility of building a logistics center with warehouses and cold storage on another 70 acres of land it owns adjacent to the terminal site

that may become a part of the Colon Free Trade Zone, even though it is not adjacent to the existing zone.

http://www.joc.com/container-shipping/joc%E2%80%99s-szakonyi-tours-port-colon-free-trade-zone-video

And finally, we did not talked today about…

Dr. Yann Alix & Pr. Jacques Charlier The Royal Academy for Overseas Sciences


• Changing global trade patterns (Impact for instance on Brazil to Far East (400,000 Full Teu’s) & Far East to Brazil (1 million Full teu’s) • Impacts of improving "all water" shipping routes • Anticipated waterside and marine terminal development needs (especially in the US East & West Coasts) • Increased road and rail capacity requirements • Infrastructure financing challenges

• Dredging (!)

• Supply Chain, Logistics Integrators & US Shippers’ strategies… • And so on… which mean a lot to debate !

Many thanks ! Merci beaucoup !

Dr. Yann Alix & Pr. Jacques Charlier The Royal Academy for Overseas Sciences


GAME CHANGERS REQUIRE STRATEGIC PLANNING

Rodolfo Sabonge VP, Market Research & Analysis Panama Canal Authority – 2011

[email protected] 00 33 6 11 26 34 21 www.sefacil.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.sefacil.com/

the panama canal into the container era 2012... · wcsa eur total 321,2 125,4 27,8 22,9 prof....

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