the paradox of expected punishment, busc

Upload: stuntman-mike

Post on 14-Apr-2018

228 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    1/28Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1121129

    {GwGGlGwaG{GwGGlGwaG{GwGGlGwaG{GwGGlGwaGsGGsGGsGGsGG

    lGmGkGzGGlGmGkGzGGlGmGkGzGGlGmGkGzGG

    mGGGmGmGGGmGmGGGmGmGGGmGGvGjGvGjGvGjGvGjGG

    EDGARDO BUSCAGLIA1

    Director, International Law and Economic Development Center; ITAM School of

    Law (Mxico); Columbia University (USA)

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

    -(2#%%-(*#$/./2#,/$'-,#)$'2$2"#$/./2#,'2-*$*-6-%O*1-,-('%$3+13#-291#/$'()$*+(3-/*'2-+(/$+3$'//#2/$-($2"#$"'()/$+3$*1-,-('%$&1+90/$'()O+1$9()#1$2"#$*+(21+%$+3$U%-*-2V$79/-(#//#/$%-(5#)$2+$+1&'(-L#)$*1-,#T$:--->$2"#$'22'*5$'&'-(/2$ "-&"$ %#6#%$ 097%-*$ /#*2+1$ *+11902-+($ %-(5#)$ 2+$ +1&'(-L#)$ *1-,#$ :2"'2$ -/$ '-,#)$ '2$ *'0291-(&$ '()$

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

    =(P"G,(>),9W8"6)..&%&&"-,),93)N8"%&:&%&&8P""

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    2/28Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1121129

    3#9)'%-L-(&$2"#$W2'2#/>$'()$:-6>$2"#$+0#1'2-+('%$01#/#(*#$+3$&+6#1(,#(2$'()O+1$(+(R&+6#1(,#(2'%$01#6#(2-6#$01+&1',/$:39()#)$7.$2"#$01-6'2#$/#*2+1$'()O+1$&+6#1(,#(2/$'()O+1$-(2#1('2-+('%$+1&'(-L'2-+(/>$'))1#//-(&$2#*"(-*'%$ '//-/2'(*#$ 2+$ 2"#$ 01-6'2#$ /#*2+1@$ #)9*'2-+('%$ +00+129(-2-#/@$ Q+7$ 21'-(-(&$ 01+&1',/$ '()O+1$1#"'7-%-2'2-+($:"#'%2"$'()O+1$7#"'6-+1'%>$+3$.+92"$%-(5#)$2+$+1&'(-L#)$*1-,#$-($"-&"R1-/5$'1#'/$:4-2"$"-&"R*1-,#@$"-&"$9(#,0%+.,#(2@$'()$"-&"$0+6#12.>F$$

    N($#,0-1-*'%$Q91-,#21-*/$,+)#%$-/$3+1$2"#$3-1/2$2-,#$)#6#%+0#)$3+1$2"#$'7+6#$3+91$'(2-R*1-,#$0+%-*.$)+,'-(/$

    -($+1)#1$2+$'//#//$2"#$%#&'%$-,0%#,#(2'2-+($+3$+1&'(-L#)$*1-,#$%'4/F$X($2"-/$*+(2#Y2@$2"#$#,0-1-*'%$1#/9%2/$/9&/2$2"'2$"-&"R-,0'*2$01+/#*92-+(/$'()$#33#*2-6#$*+(6-*2-+(/$'&'-(/2$*1-,-('%$+1&'(-L'2-+(/$'1#$%#//$)1-6#($7.$ -(*'1*#1'2-+($ +3$0"./-*'%$0#1/+(/$ '()$ ,+1#$ 3+*9/#)$ +($)-/1902-(&$ 2"#$01+)9*2-+($ 39(*2-+($ +3$*1-,-('%$&1+90/$2"1+9&"$'//#2$3+13#-291#/$2"'2$1#)9*#$2"#$',+9(2/$+3$(#2$4+12"$'-,#)$'2$#Y0'()-(&$097%-*$*+11902-+($1-(&/$-($+1)#1$2+$3#9)'%-L#$W2'2#/F$N2$2"#$/',#$2-,#@$01#6#(2-6#$0+%-*-#/$'-,#)$'2$)-,-(-/"-(&$2"#$3%+4$+3$

    .+92"$-(2+$*1-,-('%$'*2-6-2-#/$4-%%$'%/+$2#()$2+$)-/1902$2"#$/21##2R7'/#)$ +0#1'2-+('%$*'0'*-2-#/$+3$+1&'(-L#)$*1-,#F$$

    N**+1)-(&%.@$'$0'1')+Y$+3$*1-,-('%$)-//9'/-+($#,#1/$2"'2$1#S9-1#/$2"#$')Q9/2,#(2$+3$8#*5#1I/$:;$

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

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    3/28

    1. INTRODUCTIONJ>&"BCCC"7,$(&1"H-($),8W"6),4&,($),"-&" :$(" -&%.-,18*" -,1"+(-.9E*" (>&"6),4&,($)," $,'.N1&8"85&'$-." $,4&8($&"'-5-'$($&8"):"=(-(&8"O9")::&%$,&"-,($')%%N5($),*"5%$4-(&"8&'()%*"-,1"'$4$."8)'$&(9"1)3-$,8PR"

    J>$8"5-5&%"-$38"-("$1&,($:9$,$," -" 8-35.&" ):" !CR" 7H" 3&3O&%" 8(-(&8P" J>&" .&&)%&($'-.":%-3&0)%T"-,$838" (>-(">-4&"O&&,"5%)4&," ()"%&1N'&"(>&"-4&"-.%&-19"8$$8"5-5&%"0$.." 8>)0" (>-("(>)8&"')N,(%$&8"0>&%&"5%)8&'N($),8" -,1"&::&'($4&"'),4$'($),8"-&" :.)0" ):" 9)N(>" $,()" '%$3$,-."

    B" ^)%" (>&" &,($%&" (&M(" ):" (>&" I-.&%3)" 6),4&,($)," %&:&%" ()"

    >((5e``000PN,)1'P)%

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    4/28

    -'($4$($&8"-,1"5%&4&,($,&" (%-,8,-($),-." ,-(N%&" ):" (>&"3)8(" 8&%$)N8"&M5%&88$),8"):")%&"(>&)%&($'-.":%-3&0)%T"5%&8&,(&1"O9"ZN$'>").$&"(%-1$($),-."U&'T&%" ?!@b]E" -,1"/&4$((" ?!@@]E" 1&(&%%&,'&" :%-3&0)%T8"0$.." (&,1"()"

    $,'%&-8&".&4&.8"):")%$,"(>&"5NO.$'"8&'()%P"7,1&%"(>$8" .)0A&"5%)5&%" &,4$%),3&,(" :)%" -"3)%&"&::&'($4&":$("-&"3$M"):"1&3)'%-($[-($),*"1&%&&" 5%$4-($[-($)," ):" 8(-(&" &,(&%5%$8&8" N,1&%(-T&," $,"

    3-,9"')N,(%$&8">-4&"$,(&,8$:$&1"(>&",&&1"()"-1-5(".&N3-," -,1" :$,-,'$-." :.)08" &%&" $8" -," $,'%&-8$,&" %&8N.(8" ):" (>&" 8(N19" 5%&8&,(&1" >&%&" '-," O&" :)N,1" -(e""220POO)#1#*"+F-2',F,YO3'*9%2')O3'*9%2')_-(6-2')+/_79/*'&%-'F"2,%F"

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    5/28

    $35.&3&,(-($),"):"-"')33),".&&,8$4&"8&("):"5).$'9"3&-8N%&8"()"-11%&88")%-%1" ?BCCSE" 8>)0*" 3)8(" ')N,(%$&8" >-4&"(%-,85.-,(&1" $,(&%,-($),-." :%-3&0)%T8" $,()" (>&$%" 1)3&8($'" .&&"8N''&88"):"(>&".&&",-(N%&"):"(>&"5%)'&88"N8&1"()"-1-5("

    (>&" .&&"$35)%($,-("5%$)%":-3$.$-%$(9" 0$(>" (>&" (%-,85.-,(&1" .&&" .)'-." .&&" .&">-8"8>)0,"(>&"8$&" -,-.98$8" '),(-$,&1" >&%&*" -" %N.&" ):" .-0" 8(-(&" '),8$8(8" ):" -" 8)'$-."&,4$%),3&,("0$(>$,"0>$'>"(>&"&,-'(3&,("):":)%3-."-,1"$,:)%3-."%N.&8*"(>&$%"$,(&%5%&(-($),8*" -55.$'-($),*" -,1" (>&$%" &,:)%'&3&,(" )5&%-(&" $," -" ')>&%&,(*"'),8$8(&,(*"-,1"5%&1$'(-O.&"3-,,&%"(>%)N"&::&'($4&"-,1"&::$'$&,("-1QN1$'-($),"898(&38" O-'T&1" O9" -" 8)'$-." '),8&,8N8" ?h-9&T*" !@RSEP" G8" -" 1&%$4-($)," ):" (>$8"&"5NO.$'"8&'()%8*"'$4$."8)'$&($&8"0$.."

    O&" -O.&" -,1" 0$..$,-(" 0$.."

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    6/28

    %&$,:)%'&" (>&" 8(-(&W8" '-5-'$(9" ()" 5%&4&,(" -,1" :$(" '%$3&P@

    " UN(" 0>&,"N,-::)%1-O.&".$'$("-,1"$..$'$("')8(8"-%&"$35)8&1"),"$,1$4$1N-.8"-,1")%%)N"')%%N5("(%-,8-'($),8*"0>&,"N,5%&1$'(-O.&"%&&,"$,'),8$8(&,(" -55.$'-($),8" ):"(>&" .-08" -%&" (>&" ,)%3*"(>&,"898(&3$'"-,1" >$" .&4&.8"):")%-(" O&,&:$(" :%)3" (>&" :$,-,'$-." $,:$.(%-($)," ):" '%$3$,-.":N,1$,%)N" &"$,'N3O&,("5).$($'-."-'()%8"O&:)%&"8N8(-$,-O.&".&".&N8"O.)'T$,&"8(-(&"$8"5&%'&$4&1"-8",)("O&$,-%-'(&%$[&1"O9">$" .&4&.8" ):")%&1" 5NO.$'" 8&'()%"')%%N5($)," -(" -.." .&4&.8" -::&'($,))8&"O&(0&&,"-" '%$8$8A5%),&" /2'29/$ S9+"(>-("')N.1"')8("(>&3"1&-%.9"$,"(>&",&M("&.&'($),*"-,1"(>&"-''&5(-,'&"):".&&3" 1&-%.9" $," (>&" .),&$%"'-5-'$($&8"()"O&,&:$(":%)3"$..$'$(":N,1$,&$%"'-35-$&$%".-08"-,1"QN1$'$-%$&8"-8"-"%&8N.("):"(>&$%"5).$($'-."-,1"8)'$-."&::)%(8"()"8(%&,&,"

    1&3)'%-'9*"()"&,>-,'&"(>&"5%)(&'($),8"):">N3-,"%$(8"-,1"()":)8(&%"5%$4-(&"8&'()%" $,4&8(3&,(P" \&(*" 0$(>$," (>&" '$4$." -,1" '%$3$,-." QN8($'&" 1)3-$,8*" -,"$,(&%,-($),-."')35-%-($4&"-,-.98$8"1&3),8(%-(&8"(>-(".&-,'$,%&&" 3)8(" $35)%(-,(":-'()%8"-88)'$-(&1"0$(>"0-%"-,1"'),:.$'(8"$,"G:%$'-*"G8$-*"/-($,"G3&%$'-"-,1"(>&"

    @" =&&" >((5e``0&OP0)%.1O-,TP)%

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    7/28

    K$11.&"2-8(" ?UN8'-" -55.$&1" >&%&"-$38"-("$1&,($:9$,&".$'$("-,1"$..$'$("1)3-$,8E"*"-,1"$35%)4&3&,(8"$,"(>&"$,(&%5%&(-($),"-,1"-55.$'-($),"):"'%$3$,-."8(-(N(&8"(>-(">-4&"O&&,"-O.&"()"%&1N'&"(>&""):")%-(" -%&" -O.&" ()"%&1N'&")%$8"1$8'$5.$,&"-,1"O-8&1"),"&35$%$'-."8(N1$&8"5&%:)%3&1"1N%$,&"-,-.98$8" O&.)0" -$38" -(" -'')N,($,&" ,&'&88-%9" '),1$($),8" 0$(>$," (>&"5%&4&,($4&*":$,-,'$-."$,(&..$-(",&&1"()"O&"5%&8&,("$,")%1&%"()"')3O-(")%"3)%&"&::&'($4&,&88P"

    1.2.INSTITUTIONAL FEASIBILITY OF LEGAL TRANSPLANTS ANDECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

    J>&%&"-%&"(0)"3-$,"'>)$'&8":)%"-"')N,(%9"0>&,"8&.&'($,$,"(>&"&4).N($),"):"$(8")0,"8)'$)AQN%$1$'-."(%-1$($)," $35.&3&,(&1" (>%)N" $(8" )0," $,8($(N($),-." 3&'>-,$838*" )%" $(" '-,"(%-,85.-,(" %N.&8" :%)3" )N(8$1&" $(8" 5).$($'-.A.&&" -,-.98$8" ):" .&"):" (>&" (0)" )5($),8" $8" (>&"3)8(" &::&'($4&"()"&,>-,'&"(>&"&M5&'(&1"$35-'("):" (>&".-0P"g-(8),"?!@R]E"-,1"U&%T)0$([*"I$8()%*"-,1" Y$'>-%1" ?BCCSE" >-4&" 8>)0," (>&" )N.1" -.8)" -$3" -("&M5.-$,$,$.&")(>&%8"-%&"%&Q&'(&1P"

    J)" -" &" :&-8$O$.$(9" ):" (%-,85.-,($,((5e` 000PN,)1'P)%

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    8/28

    *+,,-22-(&$ +(#$ +1$ ,+1#$ /#1-+9/$ *1-,#/$ +1$ +33#(*#/$ #/2'7%-/"#)$ -($ '**+1)'(*#$ 4-2"$ 2"-/$J+(6#(2-+(@$-($+1)#1$2+$+72'-(@$)-1#*2%.$+1$-()-1#*2%.@$'$3-('(*-'%$+1$+2"#1$,'2#1-'%$7#(#3-2V"?G%($'.&"BE!!"&,(-$.&1"(%&-1$,&"-1)5($),"):"-"')33),":%-3&0)%T":)%".&&"8$&" '$(9" ):" I-.&%3)" ?+(-.9E" $," BCCC*" ),.9" SR" 5&%'&,(" ):" -.." 7H" 3&3O&%8"5)88&88&1" 1$4&%8&" .&-1"%-($:$&1"(>&"6),4&,($),"-,1"R]"5&%'&,("):"-.."7H"3&3O&%"8(-(&8">-4&"-1)5(&1"-".&&"'-5-'$(9"()" :$("(%-,8,-($),-.")%%)N" 3),$()%$,&"6),4&,($),P" J>$8" -.8)" %&5%&8&,(8" -" '))%1$,-(&1" $,8($(N($),-." :%-3&0)%T" ()"&,8N%&"(>&"$,(&%,-($),-."(%-,85.-,("):"-".&&"&'),)3$'"-,-.98$8"):"(>&".-0"'-,"5%)4$1&"-,"&M5.-,-($),"-,1"&"3)8("5).$($'-..9":&-8$O.&"'>)$'&8":)%"-"8NO8&_N&,("&::$'$&,("-,1"&::&'($4&"$35.&3&,(-($),P" +," (>$8" '-8&*" -," $,(&%A(&35)%-." 5).$($'-." ')8(AO&,&:$(" -,-.98$8"-55.$&1"0$(>$,"&-'>".&-4&"-.%&-19"-1)5(&1"1)3&8($'".&&",)%3-."5).$($'-."8N55.9"-,1"1&3-,1"&M&%'$8&1"O9"5%&88N%&"$,")%":%)3")N(8$1&" (>&" =(-(&" ?K-((&$*" !@@ReSaASREP" +," )(>&%" 0)%18*" 5NO.$' 5%$4-(&" $,(&%&8(8"%&-(&,&1" )%" O&,&:$(" O9"

    -.(&%-($),8" $," (>&" $,'N3O&,(" .&$8" &"'),(&M(" ):" (>&" I-.&%3)" 6),4&,($),*" (>&" &'),)3$'" &::$'$&,'9" >95)(>&8$8"5%)5)8&8"(>-("1$::&%&,(".&&"5NO.$'"8&'()%"-,1*"(>N8*".&88"')%%N5($),"?$P&P*">$A_N-.$(9"

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    9/28

    -,1*"-'')%1$,&" !@RC8*" -" .&-1$," -8"^%-,'&*"V&%3-,9*" +(-.9*" J>&" H&(>&%.-,18*" (>&" 7,$(&1" Z$,&" 7,$(&1"=(-(&8" ):"G3&%$'-" 8)N(" -" ')33)," $,(&%,-($),-." .&&%" ')N,(%$&8" $," )%1&%" ()" ')3O-(" '%$3$,-." &,(&%5%$8&8"(>%)N" $,(&%,-($),-.".&-,$838P"h)0&4&%*"(>&"4&%9".&&%" ,-($),-." QN%$81$'($),8"'%$3$,-.$[&1" 3&3O&%8>$5" )%" 5-%($'$5-($)," $," '%$3$,-." &,(&%5%$8&8" ?&P&"7,$(&1"=(-(&8"):"G3&%$'-*".&&" Y-'T&(&&%" +,:.N&,'&1" -,1" 6)%%N5(" X%&" 8)A'-..&1" Y+6X" 8(-(N(&E*" 0>$'>" 5%)>$O$(8" &,&8&" ')N,(%9A85&'$:$'" .-08*" (>&" QN1$'$-." '-5-'$(9" ()" 1$83&3O&%" -" '%$3$,-.")%" $,,)4-($4&"8(-(N(&8P!a"

    G(" (>&" 8-3&" ($3&*" .-0" &,:)%'&3&,(" -"6%$3$,-."6)1&*"J$(.&";*"-%($'.&8"

    aDCA!AaDCAaF"(>&"+(-.$-,"I&,-."6)1&*"Y)9-."#&'%&&"H)P"!S@]"):"!@"X'()O&%"!@SC*"-%($'.&8"a!b*"iG88)'$-($),":)%"5N%5)8&8"):"')33$(($,

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    10/28

    ):"QN1$'$-."5%)'&&1$," -" %)N"($3&*"3N8("')33$("8&%$)N8"'%$3&8":)%"5%):$(*" 3N8(" N8&" 4$).&,'&*" 3N8(" ')%%N5(" 5NO.$'" )::$'$-.8*" 3N8(" .-N,1&%"'%$3$,-."5%)'&&18"-,1"3N8("O&":)N,1"()"%&$,4&8("(>&8&"5%)'&&1$,&".$'$("&'),)39P"6)33),"2N%)5&-,")5&%-($),-."-55%)-'>&8"0&%&"-1)5(&1"O9".-0"&,:)%'&3&,(P"J>&"i^-.'),&"'>&'T.$8(j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

    !D" J>&"^-.'),&":%-3&0)%T" $8"-" '>&'T.$8("?N8&1" -8"-," )5&%-($),-." &" (&M(" ):" (>&" (>%&&" I%)()').8*" %&:&%" ()" >((5e``000PN,)1'P)%

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    11/28

    BP J>&"5NO.$'"8&'()%"')%%N5($),"')35)8$(&"$,1&M"O-8&1"),"(>%&&"5&%'&5($),-."-,1"),&")OQ&'($4&"'%$3$,-."$,1$'-()%":)%"(>&"5&%$)1"BCCSABCCR"3&-8N%$,$'>" >$" .&4&."')%%N5($)," ?$P&P*" '-5(N%&" ):" >$A.&4&." -N(>)%$($&8E" $8" QN1$'$-..9"3)($4-(&1"O-8&1" ),"&4$1&,($-%9"3-(&%$-." ?-88&88$,&"I-.&%3)"6),4&,($),EF"

    SP J>&"3),&(-%9"4-.N&"):" (%-,8,-($),-.")%&"&M$8(&,'&"):"')N,(&%A)%$," (>&" 5).$'&" -,1" 5%)8&'N()%$-." 1)3-$,8" 1N%$,&" &M$8(&,'&"):" -," )5&%-($),-..9"'))%1$,-(&1" :$,-,'$-." $,(&..$" (>&" ')N,(%9" &,&" 5&%$)1" BCCSABCCb" ?-88&88$," .$,T&1" ()" )%$A'%$3&*">$" N,&35.)93&,(*" -,1" >$" 5)4&%(9E" $," &-'>" ):" (>&" !CR" ')N,(%$&8"

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    12/28

    8-35.&1" :)%" (>$8" 8(N19" ?-88&88$,%)N"]" -O)4&" '),8($(N(&" -%&-8" ):" ')N,(&%A)%&" I-.&%3)" 6),4&,($),P" G" :%-3&0)%T" ):" >95)(>&8&8" ()"-,-.9[&" (>&" $35-'(" ):" &-'>" ')35),&,(" )," -," $,1$'-()%" ):" )%$8"8&'($),*"(&8(8"):"(>&">95)(>&8&8"-%&"5%&8&,(&1"$,")%1&%"()"&M5.-$,"()"

    0>-(" 1&-,&" )%$," (>&" 1-(-" O-8&" ):" !CR" ,-($),-." QN%$81$'($),8" -%&" -::&'(&1" O9" >$" .&4&."')%%N5($)," ?$P&P*" :&N1-.$[-($)," ):" (>&" 8(-(&E*" .-'T" ):" -8" O&&,"3)1$:$&1"?-,1" (>&" 8-35.&" >-8" O&&,"&M5-,1&1">&%&":%)3"bR"()"!CR"')N,(%$&8EP!R"J>&"1&4&.)53&,("):"-,"$,(&%,-($),-."$,1&M"):")%&"-&"&M(&,("):")%&'T.$8("$8"-,"$,4&8($&" $,4&8($&" 8')5&"):")%&"I-.&%3)"6),4&,($),"-,1"$(8"(>%&&"5%)()').8P"X::$'$-." 1-(-" )," 5).$'&" %&')%18" ):" '%$3$,-." -'($4$($&8" )::&%&1" .$((.&" %&.$-O.&"

    $,:)%3-($)," )," (>&" &M(&,(" ):" )%&%"8)N%'&8">-1"()"O&":)N,1")%"1&4&.)5&1"-8"5%$3-%9"1-(-P"X,&"5)(&,($-..9"%&.&4-,("

    !R"I-.&%3)"6),4&,($),*"=N55.&3&,(-%9"I%)()').8*"8&&":,"!R"!]"^)%"3)%&"1&(-$.8*"8&&"UN8'-&"^-.'),&"6>&'T.$8("0-8",-3&1"

    $,">),)%"):"nN1

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    13/28

    8)N%'&"0-8" (>&"g)%.1"2'),)3$'"^)%N3W8" 8N%4&9" ):" ON8$,&88&8"3&-8N%$,&"&M(&,("):"4$'($3$[-($)," ):"ON8$,&88&8"O9")%&" ')N,(%9" %-,T$,%&&" $,1$'&8"0&%&":)N,1"()"O&">$.9"')%%&.-(&1"-'%)88"(>&".-%&"V%-5>"O&.)0"-,1*"-8"-"%&8N.(*"-"')35)8$(&"$,1&M"):",),A'),4&,($),-."'%$3&"0-8"'),8(%N'(&1P"+("0-8"8NO8&_N&,(.9"1&'$1&1"()"8&&T"-11$($),-."-4-$.-O.&"')N,(%9"1-(-"),"BD" ')%&"'%$3$,-." -'($4$($&8"):")%&"ON8$,&88"8&'()%W8"5&%'&5($),8"):")%&"g-.T&%"$,1&ME"-,1"(%-::$'T$," ')N,(%9" :)%" &-'>" 4-%$-O.&" $," )%1&%" ()"')35N(&"(>&"')35)8$(&")%&" $,1&M*"0$(>"')8(8" ()"ON8$,&88*">)3$'$1&*"1%N&"%-,T&1A.&4&.8"):"(%-,8AO)%1&%"(%-,85)%(-($),"):"$..$'$("1%N)0"')%%&.-($),"0$(>"(>&")(>&%")%&" :$%8(" ($3&PB!"^$,-..9*"-" ')35)8$(&" $,1&M"0-8"'),8(%N'(&1"(>-(" $,'.N1&1"$,1$'-()%8"):"8$M"')%&"

    !@" Y&:&%" ()" >((5e `000PN,)1'P)%(3.P"BC"J>&"$,1&M"'),8$1&%&1">&%&"),.9"$,'.N1&1"(>)8&"')N,(%$&8":)%"0>$'>"(>&%&"0&%&"-(".&-8("(>%&&"

    )O8&%4-($),8*")N("):"0>$'>"-(".&-8("(0)"0&%&"i')%&"-'($4$(9j":-'()%8P"h$&%"4-.N&8"')%%&85),1&1"

    ()"-,)1).)&" '-.'N.-($),"):"(>&"$,1&M"0$(>"%&85&'("()"

    UN8'-

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    14/28

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

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    15/28

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

    JUDERRORS

    60

    120

    ORGC

    RIME

    Afghanistan

    Venezuela, R

    PakistanEquatorial G

    Russian Fede

    Ecuador

    Nigeria

    Romania

    Cote d'IvoirLebanon

    Moldova

    East Timor

    Honduras

    Indonesia

    Mexico

    El Salvador

    BelarusZimbabwe

    Guatemala

    Egypt, Arab

    Serbia

    Paraguay

    Dominican Re

    BoliviaZambiaMozambique

    Yemen, Rep.

    MongoliaMorocco

    CyprusAlgeriaMacao, China

    Albania

    China

    Argentina

    Ukraine

    Vanatu

    Brazil

    Nicaragua

    Nauru

    Croatia

    Thailand

    Philippines

    Namibia

    Peru

    Iran, Islami

    Andora

    Kenya

    Bulgaria

    IndiaBarbadosSlovak Repub

    Estonia

    Bahamas, The

    Costa Rica

    Oman

    South Africa

    Poland

    Uzbekistan

    Sri LankaPortugal

    Malaysia

    Panama

    Jamaica

    Puerto Rico

    Uganda

    Italy

    Belgium

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

    %&5%&8&,(-($4&")%&" :&N1-.$[-($)," ?)%

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    16/28

    5).$($'$-,8E"$,".)'-.")08"-"8(%)," ')%%N5($),A%&.-(&1" .$,T8" 0$(>" 5NO.$'" )::$'$-.8" 0&%&" QN1$'$-..9"1&(&%3$,&1P"J>&":)N%"$,1$'-()%8"8>)0"-"CP@!"=5&-%3-,"')%%&.-($),"$,1&M"?>$E"-,1" -%&" (>&%&:)%&" $," -" ')35)8$(&" $,1&M"):">$A.&4&."')%%N5($),"N8&1"O&.)0P"J>&""O&.)0"8>)08"(>&"'.)8&"5-%-..&.8"O&(0&&," (>&" ')35)8$(&" $,1&M" 3&-8N%$,&" (>&)%&($'-." :$,1$,&%&"$8"-",&&1"):")%$" .&4&.8"):" )%&" 5).$'&" -,1" 5%)8&'N()%$-." 1)3-$,8"?UN8'-

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    17/28

    0 20 40 60 80 100 120

    HICORRUPT

    60

    120

    ORGCRIME

    Afghanistan

    PakistanEquatorial G

    Nigeria

    LebanonEast Timor

    Cote d'Ivoir

    Albania

    IndonesiaParaguay

    Guatemala

    Yemen, Rep.

    Mexico

    Ecuador

    CyprusAlgeria

    Venezuela, R

    ZimbabweBelarus

    Peru

    Egypt, Arab

    Argentina

    VanatuSouth AfricaUzbekistan

    Bolivia

    Russian Fede

    Malaysia

    Philippines

    Jamaica

    Serbia

    BrazilCroatia

    MozambiqueZambiaMorocco

    Mongolia

    Ukraine

    Romania

    Nauru

    Iran, IslamiNamibia

    NicaraguaThailandIndiaSlovak Repub

    Dominican Re

    Moldova

    Andora

    Kenya

    Honduras

    Macao, China

    Bahamas, TheChina

    El Salvador

    Bulgaria

    Costa Rica

    Oman

    Barbados

    Puerto RicoPoland

    Estonia

    Sri LankaPortugal

    PanamaUganda

    Italy

    Belgium

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

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    18/28

    J>&" " O&.)0" 8>)08" (>&" '.&-%" 5-((&%," ):" -88)'$-($)," O&(0&&," (>&"')35)8$(&" $,1&M"):")%&"')35)8$(&"$,1&M"):"Q)$,("QN1$'$-."-,1"$,(&..$&"')35)8$(&"$,1&M"3&-8N%&8"Q)$,("QN1$'$-."-,1"$,(&..$&"-$3"):"$,'%&-8$,&"&M5&'(&1"5N,$8>3&,("O9"8$35.9"-11$,N3-,"%&8)N%'&8"()"(>&"5>98$'-."'-5(N%&" ):" '%$3$,-." O)88&8" -,1" )(>&%" 3&3O&%8" 0$(>)N(" -$3$,&"1$83-,(.$,&1*" (>&" 1-(-" 8>)0" (>-(" '%$3$,-." &" >$&%"&M5&'(&1"5N,$8>3&,(8"):"$(8">$A.&4&."3&3O&%8"O9"%&A-88$&38&.4&8P"G8"-" %&8N.(*")%&," (>&"

    &M5&'(&1"5N,$8>3&,("-$3&1"-("'%$3$,-."3&3O&%8>$5" $8"$,'%&-8$,&"8-3&"($3&P"J>&"QN%$3&(%$'8A%&.-(&1"-,-.98$8">&%&"8>)08"(>-("N,.&88"(>&":)N%".&$".&4&."')%%N5($),*"?$$E"1$83-,(.$,&"()5A%-,T$,&"1$83-,(.$,)0,"$,"(>&" "O&.)0" 3&-8N%&8" (>&" ')N,(%9" O9" ')N,(%9" :%&_N&,'$&8" ):")%" 5))%" %&8N.(8" $," (&%38" ):" 1$3$,$8>$,

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    19/28

    0 5 10 15 20

    JUDINTSYSIN

    60

    120

    ORGCR

    IME

    Belgium

    Uganda

    Panama

    Italy

    Venezuela, R

    Afghanistan

    PakistanEquatorial G

    Russian Fede

    Romania

    Lebanon

    Nigeria

    Moldova

    Indonesia

    Mexico

    Honduras

    BelarusZimbabwe

    El Salvador

    Guatemala

    Ecuador

    Paraguay

    Egypt, Arab

    SerbiaZambiaMozambique

    Cote d'Ivoir

    Bolivia

    Yemen, Rep.

    Dominican Re

    Mongolia

    East Timor

    Morocco

    CyprusAlgeriaMacao, China

    Ukraine

    Nicaragua

    China

    Thailand

    Vanatu

    BrazilCroatiaAlbania

    Andora

    Nauru

    Philippines

    Argentina

    Peru

    Namibia

    Kenya

    Iran, Islami

    IndiaBarbados

    Estonia

    Slovak Repub

    Bulgaria

    Poland

    Bahamas, The

    Sri LankaPortugal

    Oman

    Costa Rica

    Puerto Rico

    UzbekistanSouth Africa

    JamaicaMalaysia

    "

    J>&"3)1&."5%&8&,(&1">&%&" -.8)" $,'.N1&8" -," &M5.-,-()%9" 4-%$-O.&" -'')N,($,&"5%&8&,'&")%"-O8&,'&"):")%$8"4-%$-O.&"3&-8N%&8" (>&",N3O&%"):"" .$,T&1" ()" )%$A'%$3&*">$"N,&35.)93&,(*"-,1">$"5)4&%(9E"$,"&-'>"):"(>&"!CR"')N,(%$&8"8-35.&1":)%"(>$8"8(N19"?-88&88$,&8&"1$4&%8&"5%&4&,($4&"5%)&"I&-%8),"$,1&M"8>)08"-,"$35%&88$4&"CP]]!P"

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    20/28

    12 24

    PREVENTION

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    OR

    GCRIME

    Equatorial G

    Mexico

    Pakistan

    East Timor

    Ireland

    Germany

    Liechtenstei

    India

    Iceland

    FinlandDenmarkUnited State

    AustriaCanadaIsrael

    Australia

    Luxembourg

    Greece

    United KingdFrance

    Sweden

    Hungary

    Switzerland

    Lithuania

    Hong Kong, C

    Netherlands

    Chile

    New Zealand

    Saint LuciaSaudi Arabia

    SeychellesUnited ArabJapan

    QatarSan MarinoSpainCzech RepublColombia

    Jordan

    Korea, Rep.Singapore

    SloveniaLatviaMalta

    Estonia

    PortugalSri LankaPuerto Rico

    Belgium

    Andora

    Poland

    Barbados

    Egypt, Arab

    Costa RicaUganda

    Bahamas, The

    Italy

    BulgariaSouth Africa

    Thailand

    Oman

    Iran, Islami

    China

    Slovak Repub

    Ukraine

    Vanatu

    Jamaica

    CyprusNauruKenya

    Nicaragua

    Dominican Re

    Norway

    El Salvador

    UzbekistanMacao, ChinaAlgeria

    Namibia

    HondurasZimbabwe

    Brazil

    Malaysia

    Ecuador

    Peru

    Croatia

    MongoliaBolivia

    BelarusPhilippinesZambia

    Panama

    Albania

    Mozambique

    Venezuela, R

    Serbia

    Argentina

    Paraguay

    RomaniaMoldova

    Morocco

    GuatemalaRussian Fede

    Yemen, Rep.

    Lebanon

    Afghanistan

    Indonesia

    Nigeria

    Cote d'Ivoir

    J>&" -88&883&,("-.8)" $,'.N1&8"-" 4-%$-O.&"3&-8N%$,&"I-.&%3)"6),4&,($),P"J>&""O&.)0"8>)08"(>&"8(%),&,">-,1.$,

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    21/28

    12 24 36 48

    INTCOOP

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    OR

    GCRIME

    Venezuela, R

    Pakistan

    Equatorial G

    Mexico

    Liechtenstei

    Norway

    SwedenSwitzerland

    Netherlands

    Ireland

    Spain

    Saudi Arabia

    Germany

    Israel

    San Marino

    United State

    Qatar

    New Zealand

    Saint Lucia

    United ArabSingapore

    United Kingd

    Japan

    Slovenia

    Finland

    India

    Seychelles

    Denmark

    Chile

    Malta

    Luxembourg

    Greece

    FranceKorea, Rep.

    Jordan

    Hong Kong, C

    Lithuania

    Iceland

    LatviaCzech Republ

    CanadaAustria

    Hungary

    Colombia

    Australia

    Sri Lanka

    Afghanistan

    Andora

    Poland

    NicaraguaItaly

    Puerto Rico

    Costa Rica

    Estonia

    Kenya

    Portugal

    Egypt, Arab

    Namibia

    Peru

    Oman

    Morocco

    UgandaPanamaThailand

    Paraguay

    El SalvadorMozambique

    Barbados

    Bahamas, TheBulgariaSouth Africa

    Malaysia

    Uzbekistan

    Jamaica

    Macao, ChinaDominican Re

    Slovak Repub

    Honduras

    Lebanon

    Nauru

    Croatia

    Mongolia

    BrazilAlbania

    Zimbabwe

    Cyprus

    Philippines

    China

    Argentina

    Cote d'Ivoir

    UkraineIran, Islami

    Ecuador

    Belgium

    Vanatu

    East Timor

    Guatemala

    SerbiaZambia

    Yemen, Rep.Romania

    Bolivia

    Russian FedeIndonesia

    Nigeria

    Algeria

    Belarus

    H)0"(>$8"&35$%$'-.":%-3&0)%T"3)4&8":N%(>&%"O9"(&8($,$A.&4&." ')%%N5($)," ?/XV"h+6XYY7IJE*" QN1$'$-." -,1"$,(&..$" %&&" -,-.98$8"8>)0,"),"J-O.&"!"O&.)0"5&%:)%38"-".$,&-%".)

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    22/28

    -&"5)8$($4&"8$&" ,N3O&%" ):"5%&4&,($)," 5%)" -(" %$8T" -,1" (&'>,$'-." -88$8(-,'&" ()" (>&"5%$4-(&"8&'()%"?&P)0"-"%&1N'($),"):")%$&%")%&%&"-"!"5&%'&,("1&'%&-8&"$,"(>&">$A.&4&."')%%N5($),"$,1$'-()%"0$.."%&1N'&")%)08"(>-("!C"5&%'&,("$,'%&-8&8"$,"(>&":%&_N&,'$&8"):"$,(&%,-($),-."QN1$'$-."'))5&%-($),"-%&".$,T&1"0$(>"BCPBB"5&%'&,("1&'%&-8&"$,")%

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    23/28

    8>)%(*"O&((&%"$35.&3&,(-($),A%&.-(&1"')35.$-,'&"0$(>"(>&"-%($'.&8"):"(>&"I-.&%3)"6),4&,($),"3&,($),&1"-O)4&"&M5.-$,"@a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

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    24/28

    :*> =5&'$:$'"%&:)%38"):"(>&")%%)N"(>&":)%3-($),"):"(-8T":)%'&8"$,4).4$,-,1"0$(>"85&'$-."5%)8&'N()%$-.A5).$'&"N,$(8"),"85&'$:$'")%&" '-5-'$(9" ):" (>&" QN1$'$-%9" ()" %&4$&0" (>&"'),8$8(&,'9" ):" $(8" )0," 1&'$8$),8" $," ')N%(" %N.$,&"5).$($'-."85>&%&"

    -,1"(>&"QN1$'$-%9"$,"-'')%1-,'&"0$(>"(>&"5%&'),1$($),8"1&8'%$O&1"-O)4&P"

    J>&" %&.-($4&.9" 8N''&88:N." &M5&%$&,'&8" 0$(>$," 6).)3O$-" -,1" n)%1-," $,'.N1&"3),$()%$,&8&" >$A)%$.&"'%$3$,-."

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    25/28

    5)88&88$),E"):".)'-."-(*"-'')%1$,&"1-(-*"G:-,$8(-,*" KLM$')" -,1" I-T$8(-," 1)" ,)(" ')35.9" 0$(>" '),1$($),8" ?OE"(>%)N"?&E"-O)4&*"-,1"(>&9"4$).-(&"O&(0&&,"bD"-,1"]R"5&%'&,("):"(>&"'.-N8&8"&8(-O.$8>&1"$,"(>&"I-.&%3)"6),4&,($),P"

    +," '),(%-8(*" 6).)3O$-," -,1" n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

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    26/28

    4. FINAL REMARKSU-8&1"),"(>&"-,-.98$8"5%&8&,(&1"$,"5%&4$)N8"8&'($),8*"(>&"3)8("&::&'($4&"5).$'9"

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b]E" :%-3&0)%T"0>&,"-55.$&1"()")%&" QN%$3&(%$'8AO-8&1" -,-.98$8"5%&8&,(&1" $," (>$8" 8(N19*" QN8(" %&.9$,$.&"&,>-,'$,$8"N,0-,(&1"%&8N.("):"-55.9$,&",&(0)%T"):"'%$3$,-."-88&(8"?,&("0)%(>"$,"(>&">-,18"):".$'$("-,1"$..$'$("ON8$,&88&8E"$8",)(">-35&%&1"O9"$,(&..$-(*"$,"(>&"-O8&,'&"):"-,"-'($4&":$,-,'$-."$,(&..$$A.&4&."')%%N5($),"$.&*"5-%-1)M$'-..9*"5NO.$'"8&'()%8"'),($,N&"()"1&4)(&"

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    27/28

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

    (>&" .-'T"):" &8"8N55)%($,&8&":-$.N%&8">-4&" -.8)" O&&," '>-%-'(&%$[&1" O9" ,),A')33$((&1" .&-%1P" BCCSP" r2'),)3$'"

    #&4&.)53&,(*"/&&"J%-,85.-,("2::&'(*r$aR?!E"`91+0#'($ `*+(+,-*$a#6-#4"!bDA!@DP"U&'T&%*"V-%9P"!@b]P"i6%$3&"-,1"IN,$8>3&,(e"G,"2'),)3$'"G55%)-'>*j"Rb"^+91('%$ +3$

    M+%-2-*'%$`*+(+,."!bRAB!RP"

  • 7/27/2019 The Paradox of Expected Punishment, Busc

    28/28

    UN8'-&"2::&'(8"):"X%P"!@bCP"!"#$J+(/2-292-+($+3$c-7#12.P"6>$'-$'-((5e``88%,P')3`-O8(%-'(oS@RaBSP"

    /&4$((*"=P"!@@]P"inN4&,$.&"6%$3&"-,1"IN,$8>3&,(*j"!Cb"^+91('%$+3$M+%-2-*'%$`*+(+,."!!DbA!!]D.""K-((&$*"7*j"!a!X(2#1('2-+('%$a#6-#4$+3$c'4$'()$`*+(+,-*/"BbDABRDP"K-N%)*"I-).)P"!@@DP"i6)%%N5($),"-,1"V%)0(>*j"!!!"f9'12#1%.$^+91('%$+3$`*+(+,-*/"b]!AR!!P"K$.>-N5(*"6N%($8"nP*"-,1"K-%T"#P"g&8(P"BCCCP"iJ>&"#-%T"=$1&"):"I%$4-(&"X%1&%$,