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TheParisAgreement
TheJourneyThusFar…
• FirstWorldClimateChangeConference(1979)• IPCC(1988)andAR1(1990)• UNFCCC(Rio1992)• KyotoProtocol(1997)• TheCopenhagenSummit(2009)• TheRoadtoParis
COP21:Paris2015(Nov.30– Dec.12)
• 196partiestoUNFCCCpresentinParis
• 19,385nationaldelegates
• 8,338observers• 8,825media• 2,500workinggroups
TheParisAgreement
http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php
Article2(AgreementAims)• Holdingtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels.
• Increasingtheabilitytoadapttotheadverseimpactsofclimatechangeandfosterclimateresilienceandlowgreenhousegasemissionsdevelopment,inamannerthatdoesnotthreatenfoodproduction.
• Makingfinanceflowsconsistentwithapathwaytowardslowgreenhousegasemissionsandclimate-resilientdevelopment.
ParisAgreementFeatures
• RequiresPartiestosubmitnationallydeterminedcontributions,detailinghowtheywillreducegreenhousegasemissionsdomesticallyandtoassistdevelopedcountriesinmitigationandadaptation.
ParisAgreementFeatures
• Partiesaimtoreachglobalpeakingofgreenhousegasemissionsassoonaspossible,recognizingthatpeakingwilltakelongerfordevelopingcountryParties,andtoundertakerapidreductionsthereafterinaccordancewithbestavailablescience…onthebasisofequity,andinthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.
ParisAgreementFeatures
• Commitmentsmadebypartiesarerenewedatleastevery5yearsandmustbeprogressivelymoreambitious.
• Requiresdevelopedcountriestoprovidefinancingtoassistdevelopedcountrieswithmitigationandadaptation.
AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?
• AllIn– Previousnegotiationsandtreaties(UNFCCCandKyotoProtocol)centeredonafirmdivisionbetweendeveloped(AnnexI)anddeveloping(AnnexII)countries.OnlyAnnexIcountrieswereobligatedtoreduceGHGemissions.
– IntheParisAgreement,allcountries,notjustdevelopedones,aresupposedtocurbemissions.
AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?
• PotLuck– PreviousnegotiationsdividedupresponsibilityamongdevelopedcountriesforGHGemissionsreductionstargets.ThoseweretobeimplementedbyAnnexIcountriesandenforcedthroughinternationallaw.
– IntheParisAgreement,eachcountrydevelopeditsownIntendedNationallyDeterminedContributionsbasedonnationalcircumstancesandbroughtthemtotheParisconference.
AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?
• NotBinding– TheUNFCCCandtheKyotoprotocol(andeffortstoreplacethem)werelegallybindinginternationaltreaties.
– TheParisAgreementisnot.RatherthanenforcingGHGemissionstargetsthroughalegallybindingtreaty,theParisAgreementaimstomobilizepoliticalpressure(bothinternationalanddomestic)toencouragecompliance.Theagreementcreatesasetoftransparencymeasuresandaprocessforregularlyandpubliclyreviewingeachcountry’sprogress.
AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?
• FutureCommitments– Everyfiveyears,beginningin2020,eachcountrywillbeexpectedtocontributeanewnationalplanforreducingemissions.
Positives
• Moreconsistentwitheconomicandpoliticalrealities
Positives
• Moreconsistentwitheconomicandpoliticalrealities
• Movesenforcementfromtheinternationaltothedomesticrealm
Positives
• Moreconsistentwitheconomicandpoliticalrealities
• Movesenforcementfromtheinternationaltothedomesticrealm
• Moreflexibleinthefaceofrapidchange
Negatives
• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.
INDCs
• http://cait.wri.org/indc/
Negatives
• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.
Negatives
• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.• Lackofspecificsonincreasingfundingforpoorercountriesbeyond$100billionby2020andonlossanddamageprinciples.
Negatives
• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.• Lackofspecificsonincreasingfundingforpoorercountriesbeyond$100billionby2020andonlossanddamageprinciples.
• Thedeveloped/developingcountrydivideremains.
Negatives
• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.• Lackofspecificsonincreasingfundingforpoorercountriesbeyond$100billionby2020andonlossanddamageprinciples.
• Thedeveloped/developingcountrydivideremains.
• Complianceandenforcementwillbeweak.
AprèsParis
• 2016MoroccoSummit• The2020test• TheUnitedStates
TheParisAgreement