the path to 270 in 2016: can the obama coalition survive?

8/20/2019 The Path to 270 in 2016: Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
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Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
By Ruy Teixeira, John Halpin, and Rob Griffin December 2015
WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.O
The Path to 270 in 2016 Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
By Ruy Teixeira, John Halpin, and Rob Griffin December 2015
15 Core Obama and GOP states
16 The Midwest/Rust Belt
63 About the authors
Contents
1 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in 2016
Introduction and summary
One year ou, he presidenial elecion o 2016 appears wide open. Over he pas
our elecion cycles, American voers have ye o render a decisive verdic on pari-
san conrol o he ederal governmen. Presiden Barack Obama won solid margins
in boh 2008 and 2012, expanding he Democraic hold on he Elecoral College
map and building a srong and diverse coaliion o voers. In urn, Republicans
won impressive vicories in boh he 2010 and 2014 miderm elecions, solidly
reaking he House o Represenaives, obaining majoriy conrol in he Senae,
and exending heir hold on he majoriy o sae legislaures and gubernaorial offices. Currenly, Republicans hold 31 o 50 sae governorships and have unified
conrol o 31 sae legislaurescompared o jus 11 or he Democras.
Democrasrelying on a growing coaliion o young people, people o color,
unmarried women, proessionals, and secular voershold clear advanages in
naional elecions, as well as in he mos imporan batleground saes ha deer-
mine he presidency. As America has changed demographically, he Democraic
Pary has increasingly changed wih i, enabling he pary o grow markedly a
he naional level in erms o boh voe share and parisan idenificaion. In five o
he las six presidenial elecions, he Democras have won he popular voe and
regularly lead he GOP by around 8 poins in erms o pary idenificaion.1 Te
main challenges or Democras in 2016 are: firs, low urnou and a lack o passion
among core voers and, second, wider voer aigue and hisorical paterns work-
ing agains he pary winning a hird consecuive erm in he Whie House.
Te Democraic Pary has won hree consecuive elecions only wice since 1828:
when Marin van Buren ollowed Andrew Jackson ino office in 1837 and when
Franklin Roosevel won an unprecedened hird erm in 1940 beore he passage
o he 22nd Amendmen, which limis presidens o wo erms. 2
More recenly, as he Naional Consiuion Cener has noed, Democras have ailed o win a hird
consecuive erm our ou o he five imes hey have had he opporuniy since
1920. James Cox, Adlai Sevenson, Huber Humphrey, and Al Gore all ailed o
capialize on he vicories o heir Democraic predecessors.3 Republicans have
hisorically been more successul han Democras a exending heir hold on
he presidency or a hird consecuive erm,4 mos recenly wih he elecion o
George H.W. Bush in 1988.
I Democras are o reain he presidency in 2016, hey will need o successullyranser he enhusiasm and suppor o he Obama coaliion o a new candidae
and overcome he wider belie ha he pary had is sho or eigh years and ha
i is now ime or a change. Finding a candidae and agenda ha can successully
moivae core progressive voerswhile simulaneously convincing a wider
cross-secion o less ideological voers ha hey have new ideas o address lin-
gering economic and social problemswill be paramoun. Te pary mus also
ake seriously he need o kni ogeher is more diverse coaliion wih a larger
share o working class whies i i wans o be compeiive in congressional and
sae-level elecions.
Te Republican Paryrelying on a core base o suppor rom older, whier, more
male, more geographically dispersed, and more religious voersbenefis rom a
consiuional sysem wih muliple levels o elecions and shared power. Alhough
he pary ’s coaliion may be less diverse han Democras’, Republican voers are
ypically more acive and more reliable in erms o voing in miderm and sub-
naional elecions ha deermine he balance o power in governmen. Te main
challenges or Republicans in 2016 are woold: firs, an overreliance on whie
voes a he expense o building a broader demographic coaliion in batleground
saes and, second, an agenda and poliical one ha is oo conservaive and exclu-
sionary or a naional elecorae.
Recen social rends presen significan headwinds or Republicans, paricularly
as hey relae o demographic shifs in he counry. For years, Republicans could
rely on whie voersand, in paricular, working-class whieso consiue a
decisive proporion o he elecorae and deliver vicory. Tis is no longer he
case. As documened in he 2014 “Saes o Change” repor5published joinly
by he Cener or American Progress, he American Enerprise Insiue, and he
Brookings Insiuionhe percenage o whie voers in he acual elecorae
dropped 15 percenage poins, rom 89 percen in 1976 o 74 percen in 2012. Te percenage o whie working-class voers dropped even more, decreasing by 26
poins over he same period. Fuure projecions in he “Saes o Change” repor
sugges ha he percenage o eligible whie voers in he American elecorae will
drop o 46 percen by 2060. (see Figure 1) Compounding he problem naion-
ally or Republicans, he decline in he whie percenage o he elecorae has
coincided wih sronger Democraic idenificaion and voing paterns among
nonwhie voers, as well as increasingly more liberal social views among higher-
educaed whie proessionals.6
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Racial composition of eligible voting population, 1980–2060
Sources: Authors' calculations are based on data from the Current Population Survey's November Supplement, the Census' 2014 National Population Projections, and the American Community Survey.
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Projected

For Republicans o win he presidency in 2016, hey mus eiher expand heir
suppor beyond heir conservaive base or hope or a low-urnou elecion on he
Democraic side, magniying heir advanages among whie voers. Tis is a ricky
sraegic proposiion or he pary ha involves significan radeoffs in erms o
he ype o candidae nominaed and agenda pursued. Republicans can cross heir
fingers ha he 2016 elecion is similar o 2004, when urnou was higher among
whie voers and conservaives and lower among people o color. Alernaively,
hey can ry o carry ou he recommendaions o he Republican Naional
Commitee afer heir 2012 loss and widen he pary ’s appeal as a means o reach
more minoriy voers, women, and young people.7 Given he recen voing and
parisan idenificaion rends among people o color, Republicans would clearly
need o ake he later approach in order o deal wih he longer-erm demographic issues acing he pary.
Compounding he specific challenges or Democras and Republicans, boh
paries mus conend wih an increasingly unpredicable and unsetled elecor-
ae. Americans voers are angry, disrusul o esablishmen poliics, and open o
seemingly ou-o-he-mainsream candidaes and movemens ha channel hese
concerns and anxieies. Despie improvemens in he overall economy over he
pas seven years, many Americans remain economically sressed and have a risingsense ha he governmen is run or he benefi o a ew wealhy and well-con-
neced ineress raher han he middle class.8
Rising populis senimen has upended elecoral poliics across advanced democ-
racies. Tis senimen has given rise o boh unradiional candidaes and paries
gaining voes and supporofen fleeing bu in ways ha are now influencing he
decisions o mainsream paries. Examples include he rising voe oals or, on he
righ, paries such as he Naional Fron in France; he rue Finns in Finland; and
he Danish People’s Pary in Denmark. On he lef, such populis paries include
Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain.
In he Unied Saes, lef-wing populism is driving Democras o offer more ar-
reaching soluions o problems such as inequaliy and srucural racism, while
righ-wing populism is driving Republicans o more orceully conron immigra-
ion and governmen spending across he board. Populis orces in boh paries
are increasingly hosile o global rade, miliarism, money in poliics, and poliical
compromise wih opponens. I remains o be seen wheher hese populis orces
will deermine he nominaions o eiher pary, bu i is clear ha he animaing
issues and he candidaes represening hese movemens will have an effec on he
evenual plaorms and messages o he wo general elecion campaigns.
However, examining naional demographic and voing rendsespecially in 12
imporan batleground saesi is clear ha Republicans have a much higher
hill o climb han Democras in erms o amassing a coaliion capable o delivering
270 elecoral voes, or EVs. Te Democras have successully achieved his goal in
he pas wo presidenial elecions, demonsraing resilience in he ace o a bad
economy and srong Republican opposiion.
Even i Republican presidenial candidae and ormer Massachusets Gov. Mit Romney had won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia in 2012, he sill would have los
he presidency o Presiden Obama. Given he prediced increases in he minor-
iy share o he voe across all o he batleground saes, a Republican winning
hese saesplus anoher vial sae such as Colorado or New Hampshire o
pu hem over he opwill require one o wo scenarios: a significan decline in
Democraic urnou and a surge in Republican urnou ha produces an elecoral
landscape more like 2000 and 2004 han 2008 or 2012; or a widespread oureach
effor by Republicans o atrac significan numbers o Democraic-leaning voerssuch as Lainos, women, and younger people. Te sobering realiy or Republicans
is ha he Democraic candidae will be able o absorb mild levels o deecions or
lower levels o urnou rom is core voers in he general elecion and sill capure
an Elecoral College majoriy. I Democras manage o hold Presiden Obama’s
base and expand heir reach ino he Republican-leaning whie working class, hey
could win by subsanial margins.
Based on our projecions, minoriy eligible voersArican Americans, Lainos,
Asians, hose o oher race and mixed-race individuals, combinedare expeced
o rise 2 poins naionally during he 2012 o 2016 period, wih a similar 2-poin projeced increase in he minoriy share o acual voers. (see Mehodological
Appendix) Tis includes a roughly 1-poin increase in he Laino share o acual
voers, as well as anoher 1-poin increase disribued among Arican Americans,
Asians, hose o oher races, and muliracial voers. Democras may or may no
mach he 81 percen suppor he pary received rom communiies o color in
he pas wo elecions. A more conservaive esimae is ha voers o color will
suppor Democras a around he 78 percen levelhe average level o minor-
iy suppor or Democras rom 2000 o 2012.9 Puting our esimaes on elecoral
share and suppor ogeher, we anicipae ha voers o color will rise 2 poins o
make up 29 percen o he naional presidenial elecorae in 2016, wih around 78
percen o hose voers supporing he Democraic nominee.
Republicans, meanwhile, are expeced o coninue o hold srong advanages
among whie voersparicularly whie non-college-educaed voersalhough
he share o hese voers in he overall elecorae is likely o coninue o decline.
Based on our conservaive esimaes,10 non-college-educaed whies are projeced
o all 2.3 poins as a percenage o he naional elecorae, while whie college-
educaed voers are projeced o increase by .4 percen as a share o acual voers.
Tis shif in he whie voe coninues a rend slighly avoring Democras given he voing paterns o boh whie groups.
I he Democras receive heir 2012 levels o suppor among hese hree groups
in 2016an 11-poin defici among whie college graduaes; a 22-poin defici
among whie working-class voers; and a 64-poin advanage among minoriy
voershe pary will easily win he popular voe by a 6-poin margin. I suppor
or he Democras among minoriies declines o our more conservaive esimae
o 78 percen, hey would sill win he popular voe by 4 poins. I, on op o ha
diminished minoriy suppor, whie working-class suppor replicaes he sunning 30-poin defici congressional Democras suffered in 2014, while suppor among
whie college-graduaes remains seady, he Democraic candidae would sill win
he popular voealbei by a slender margin. I, however, whie college-graduae
suppor also replicaes is relaively weak 2014 perormance or he Democrasa
16-poin deficiRepublicans would win he popular voe by a single poin.
The New South
The Southwest FL
FIGURE 2
Key battleground states for 2016 2012 presidential election margin of victo
Source: Author’s calculations are based on elections results from Federal Elections Commission, Elections 2012 ava ilable at http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/federalelections2012.pdf
North Carolina
White college graduates 44% 55% 0
White working class 38% 60% -2
Note: Due to rounding error, the numbers in the projected change in share column may not sum to zero.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey 2012: November
Supplement (2012), available at https://cps.ipums.org/cps/; data taken from the Bureau of the Census, American Communities Survey, (2008–2013), available at Steven Ruggles and others, “Integrated Public Use Microdata
Series: Version 5.0” (Minneapolis: Minnesota Population Center, 2010), available at https://usa.ipums.org/usa/; CCES Dataverse “CCES Common Content, 2012,” available at https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId= hdl:1902.1/21447 (last accessed November 2015); Roper Center, “National Elelction Pool Exit Polls” (2012), available
at http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/exit-polls/; projections f rom Ruy Teixeira, William H. Frey, and Robert Griffin, “States of Change: The Demographic Evolution fo the American Electorate 1974–2060” (Washington:
Center for American Progress, 2015), available at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progressive-movement/ report/2015/02/24/107261/states-of-change/.
In 2012, Presiden Obama carried 26 saes, as well as he Disric o Columbia, or
a oal o 332 EVs. Democras have carried 18 o hese saes, plus D.C., or a oal o
242 EVs in every elecion since 1992a group ha journalis Ronald Brownsein
has ermed he “Blue Wall.”11 O hese 18, he Democraic candidae in 2016 is
almos cerain o carry 14 o hem12Caliornia, Connecicu, Delaware, Hawaii,
Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusets, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, RhodeIsland, Vermon, and Washingonplus D.C.or a oal o 186 EVs.
Tese are he Democras’ core saes, won easily by he Democraic candidae or
six sraigh elecions and unlikely o be seriously conesed in 2016. Bu hese core
saes are ar shor o an Elecoral College majoriyhe Democraic candidae
will sill need 84 more EVs rom some combinaion o oher saes o acually win
he presidency.
In 2012, Republicans carried 24 saesAlabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas,
Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kenucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Monana, Nebraska, Norh Carolina, Norh Dakoa, Oklahoma, Souh Carolina,
Souh Dakoa, ennessee, exas, Uah, Wes Virginia, and Wyomingor a oal
o 206 EVs. Tey are almos cerain o carry all o hese saes in 2016, wih he
excepion o Norh Carolina, or a oal o 191 EVs. Tis is ar shor o a majoriy:
Republicans will need 79 addiional EVs o capure he presidency.
Ouside o New Hampshire, boh Democras and Republicans will need o ocus
on a collecion o Midwes, Souhwes, and so-called New Souh saes in order o
prevail in 2016. Tese saesIowa, Michigan, Minnesoa, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Norh Carolina, and
Virginiawere all carried by Presiden Obama in 2012, excep or Norh
Carolina, which he won in 2008 bu narrowly los in 2012.
Boh he srucural demographic changes and geographic paterns o suppor in
he elecorae sugges sligh advanages or Democras in 2016. In no way, how-
ever, do hese acors preclude Republicans rom aking he righ seps o amass a
naional majoriy and Elecoral College vicory.
One year ou, he dynamics o he 2016 elecion can be disilled o a ew core quesions. Will he Democras’ demographic advanage in recen elecions hold?
Can a new Democraic candidae gain he suppor o Presiden Obama’s voers
wihou he presiden on he ballo? Can Democras build a cross-class coaliion
ha unies is diverse core wih a larger segmen o whie working-class voers?
On he Republican side, will displeasure wih Presiden Obama and uncer-
ainy among he elecorae give Republicans an opening o reach more voers?
Can Republicans dey long-erm demographic rends and pull ou a vicory by
maximizing urnou rom is base and suppor rom whies in a poenially low-
enhusiasm elecion? Can Republicans reach across he ideological divide o bring
in some Obama voers and hose disengaged rom poliics?
Te remainder o his repor examines he known conours o he 2016 elecion
by providing in-deph overviews o hese naional demographic rends; specific
breakdowns o 12 batleground saes in he Midwes/Rus Bel, Souhwes, and
New Souh regions; and a concluding analysis o wha each pary mus o do o
achieve vicory in 2016.
Demography of the path
to 270 in 2016
Our analysis examines how a Democraic candidae rom he incumben pary
and a GOP candidae rom he challenger pary migh are in erms o demo-
graphic and geographic suppor in 2016. I ocuses on he elecoral poenial o
he Obama coaliion using 2012 as a baseline, comparing ha wih he poenial
suppor or a Republican challenger in relaion o he GOP’s 2012 perormance.
Tis much is clear: Despie demographic rends ha coninue o avor hem, he
challenging poliical siuaion or he Democraspresiding over an uneven economic recovery, ime-or-a-change senimen, ani-governmen populism, and
sub-50 percen approval raings or Presiden Obamameans ha a hird con-
secuive presidenial erm is hardly a sure hing. Meanwhile, he Republican Pary
remains unpopular, wih very low avorabiliy raings, low parisan idenificaion,
and a widespread sense ha i is oo exreme. No poenial candidae has convinc-
ingly shown ha hey can appeal o voers ouside he Republican base, meaning
hey will sruggle o bea he Democraic candidae despie he Democras’ clear
poliical vulnerabiliies. Te quesion hen becomes how, given he curren polii-
cal environmen and srucure o voer inclinaions, each side can ake advanage
o heir opporuniies and reach 270 EVs.
Our analysis begins wih he basic conours o he Obama coaliion on he
naional level. I Democras are able o generae suppor and urnou among vo-
ers in ha coaliion a close o 2012 levels, he 2016 Democraic candidae will
likely be able o pu ogeher enough saes o reach 270 or more EVs. Conversely,
Republicans could cerainly capure he presidency i hey are able o make signifi-
can inroads ino he 2012 Obama coaliion or mobilize conservaive whie voers
a unprecedened levels.
Communities of color, white college graduates, and the white
working class
Te hear o he Obama coaliion is he minoriy voe. In 2012, Presiden Obama
received 81 percen suppor rom communiies o color, a group ha made up 27
percen o all voers. 13
Te quesion is, will he Democraic candidae be able oreplicae ha perormance in 2016?
Consider firs he probable minoriy share o he voe in 2016. Census daa under-
score jus how as his populaion is growing in he Unied Saes. From 2000 o
2014, he minoriy populaionhose who ideniy as Hispanic, non-Hispanic
black, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic oher, and muliracialincreased by 39
percen.14 Te Hispanic populaion alone grew by 57 percen, while he whie
meaning non-Hispanic whiepopulaion grew by a mere 2 percen. Because o
his dramaic difference in growh raes, communiies o color have accouned or
91 percen o he counry’s populaion growh since 2000. Te overall minoriy share o he populaion has also icked seadily upward, while he whie share has
declined: Te 2014 minoriy share o he populaion was 38 percen, up more
han 7 percenage poins since 2000. Ta is a rae o increase o approximaely
hal a poin a year since 2000.
rend daa indicae we should expec more o he same in he uure. Indeed,
projecions rom he Saes o Change projecconduced joinly by he Cener
or American Progress, he American Enerprise Insiue, and he Brookings
Insiuion15indicae ha, in 1980, minoriy groups comprised 16 percen o eli-
gible voers, defined as ciizens age 18 and over, and make up 30 percen o eligible
voers oday. By he year 2060, minoriy groups should consiue a majoriy, or 54
percen, o eligible voers. Tose increases represen an average rise o abou hal a
poin a year in he share o minoriy eligible voers or 2 poins over he course o a
our-year presidenial elecion cycle. Ta is exacly he projecion o he Saes o
Change projec or he 2012–2016 period.
Recen rends indicae ha a 2-poin increase in he share o minoriy eligible
voers ypically ranslaes ino a 2-poin increase in he minoriy share o acual
voers. 16
We expec ha patern o coninue in he coming presidenial elecion, 17
wih he 2-poin increase roughly disribued as 1 poin rom Laino voers and 1
poin rom blacks, Asians, hose o oher races and mixed race combined.
Te evenual Democraic nominee is hereore likely o have significanly more
voers rom communiies o color o work wih in 2016 han in 2012. Bu can she
or he plausibly hope o replicae he 81 percen suppor among hese minoriy
voers Presiden Obama received in his 2008 and 2012 elecion vicories? While
Democras reain high levels o suppor among minoriiesespecially among
blacks81 percen overall suppor may be difficul o replicae wihou PresidenObama on he icke. I is worh recalling ha suppor or Democraic presidenial
candidaes among minoriies was somewha lower in he firs wo presidenial
elecions o he 2000s: a our-elecion low o 74 percen in 2004 and 77 percen
in 2000.18 Raher han assuming a coninuaion o 2012 levels, a conservaive esi-
mae migh hereore pu he Democraic candidae’s minoriy suppor in 2016 a
he average o presidenial elecions held rom 2000 o 201278 percen. Overall,
a reasonable expecaion or 2016 is ha he minoriy share o voers will rise 2
poins rom 2012o around 29 percenand ha, conservaively, 78 percen o
hese voers will suppor he Democraic candidae.
Whie voers are a differen sory; under any scenario, he Democraic candidae
will do ar worse among his group. No all whie voers are he same, however.
I is useul o break hem down beween he growing college-educaed group,19
where Democras’ perormance has seadily improved, and he rapidly declin-
ingboh in erms o overall populaion and voer sharenon-college or
working-class group,20 where Democras have made litle progress over he pas
wo decades.21
Te disribuion o voers beween hese wo groups is shifing rapidly: Te
whie working-class share o voers declined by 19 percenage poins beween he
198822 and 2012 presidenial elecions, while he college-educaed whie share
increased by 6 poins. I his rend coninues, he share o whie working-class
voers will decrease by 3 poins rom 2012 o 2016, wih a 1-poin increase in
he share o whie college-educaed voers. According o our projecions or his
reporwhich, or various echnical reasons,23 are quie conservaivewhie
working-class voers will decline by a slighly smaller amoun, 2.3 poins, and
whie college-educaed voers will rise only racionally by 0.4 poins. Bu eiher
way, he underlying demographic composiion o he whie voe is likely o shif in
he Democraic candidae’s avor in he 2016 elecion.
Wih hese changes in mind, we can now ocus on how 2016 suppor levels among
hese hree groups o voers migh ranslae ino a Democraic or Republican
vicory given differen assumpions abou hese suppor levels. Firs o all, i he
Democraic candidae receives similar suppor among hese groups in 2016 as
Presiden Obama did in 2012an 11-poin defici among whie college gradu-
aes; a 22-poin defici among whie working-class voers; and a 64 poin advan-age, 81 percen o 17 percen, among minoriy voers24she or he will win he
popular voe easily by a 6-poin margin.
This simulated election result, and others presented in this report, are based on
simple computations using a national three-category topline. Detailed simulations
that take into account all racial groups, racial groups broken down by age, and
cover all 50 states under a wide variety of turnout and support assumptions will be
released by the States of Change project in late February of 2016.
I minoriy Democraic suppor declines o our more conservaive esimae o 78
percen, or a 58-poin ne Democraic advanage, she or he would sill win he
popular voe by 4 poins, 51 percen o 47 percen. I, on op o ha diminished
minoriy suppor, whie working-class suppor replicaes he sunning 30-poin
defici congressional Democras suffered in 2014 while whie college-graduae
suppor remains seady, he Democraic candidae would sill win he popular
voe, albei by a slender percenage poin. Ta is remarkable. However, i whie
college-graduae suppor also replicaes is relaively poor 2014 perormance or
he Democrasa 16-poin deficiRepublicans would win he popular voe,
also by a single poin.
In summary, given coninued srong perormance among minoriy voerseven
wih some slippageDemocras can secure a hird erm by holding Presiden
Obama’s 2012 whie college-graduae suppor, in which case, even a landslide
deea o 2014 proporions among whie working-class voers could be survived.
Conversely, i Republicans can cu significanly ino he Democras’ 2012 whie
college-graduae suppor, and hen replicae he landslide margins hey achieved
among whie working-class voers in 2014, hey are likely o emerge vicorious, even i he Democras hold heir 2000–2012 average o he minoriy voe in he
2016 elecion.
O course, i Republicans are able o drive he Democras’ share o he minoriy
voe downno jus o is our-elecion average bu significanly below ha aver-
ageheir chances o vicory will improve subsanially. Similarly, i Democras
are able o sop or even reverse heir coninuing decline among whie working-
class voers, hey will be hard o bea.
In he concluding secion o he paper, we discuss wha each pary mus do, given
hese parameers, o maximize heir chances o winning he presidency in 2016.
Other demographics
wo oher key demographics or 2016 are young voers: members o he
Millennial generaiondefined in his repor as hose born in he years 1981
hrough 2000and unmarried women. Te 18-o-29-year-old age group, all o
which are Millennials, made up 15 percen o voers and voed 61 percen o 35 percen in Presiden Obama’s avor in 2012. Moreover, ha 15 percen figure
acually undersaed he level o Millennial influence in he 2012 elecion because
he 18-o-29-year-old group did no include he oldes Millennialshe 30- and
31-year-olds who were born in 1981 and 1982. Once hey are figured in, a reason-
able esimae is ha Millennials made up around 18 percen o he voe in 2012.
Ta figure should be significanly larger in 2016 as more Millennials ener he
voing pool. Abou 52 million Millennials were ciizen-eligible voers in 2012,
and ha number has been increasing a a rae o abou 4 million a year. In 2016,
when Millennials make up he enire 18 o 35 age group, here will be 68 million
Millennial eligible voers, accouning or 31 percen o all eligible voershe
same size as he Baby Boomer percenage o eligible voers.
O course, relaively low youh urnou means ha he weigh o Millennials
among acual voers in 2016 will be significanly less han he generaion’s share
o eligible voers. I urnou paterns remain roughly he same in 2016 as hey
were 2012, a reasonable guess is ha Millennials will make up approximaely 25
percen o voers in he upcoming presidenial elecion.
I is also possible ha he Millennial generaion’s suppor or he Democraic
candidae in 2016 will be less han i was in 2012. Economic pessimism has aken
is poliical oll among his group, wih insiuional misrus high and enhusiasm
or poliical acion low 25no surprising given how hard he poor economy has
hi young people and how sluggish economic improvemen has been or hem
in paricular. Wages o young college and high school graduaes are subsanially
lower oday han in 2000, and heir unemploymen and underemploymen raes
remain above prerecession levels.26 Republicans will hope ha his economic
pessimism and disappoined expecaions will lower youh urnou below is 2012
levels and/or drive youh suppor o he GOP.
On he oher hand, Pew Research Cener daa indicae ha Presiden Obama’s
job approval among he Millennial generaion has generally been srong his
yearhigher, acually, han hey were in 2011 prior o he previous presiden-
ial elecion.27 And Gallup daa or Ocober and November o his year show
ha Presiden Obama’s approval raing among 18-o-29-year-old Millennials is
averaging very close o 60 percen.28 In addiion, Pew daa on pary idenificaion
show Millennials holding seady since 2012 a abou a 16-poin advanage or he
Democras on pary idenificaionsubsanially higher han any oher genera-
ion.29 Given hese levels o suppor, i seems quie plausible ha he Democraic candidae in 2016 could come very close o Presiden Obama’s 61 percen share o
he Millennial voe in 2012.
Unmarried women were also srong Democraic supporers in 2012, avoring
Presiden Obama by a 67 percen o 31 percen margin.30 Unmarried women oday
make up almos hal, or 49 percen, o eligible women voersup rom 32 percen
in 1970.31 Teir curren share o he voer poolone-quarer o eligible voersis
nearly he size o whie evangelical Proesans, he GOP’s larges base group. 32
Tis burgeoning populaion o unmarried women can be expeced o coninue o
lean heavily Democraic in is poliics. Survey daa consisenly show his group
o be unusually populis on economic issues and generally opposed o he GOP
agenda on oreign policy and social issues.33 Jus as wih Millennials, however, he
economic siuaion has aken a heavy oll on his group, and economic pessimism
is rampan. Almos hree-fifhs o unmarried women view saying in he middle
class as harder han ever, wih many jobs no paying enough o live on.34 And,
jus as wih he Millennials, ha could give Republicans an opening o cu ino
Democras’ large margins rom 2012.
Geography of the path
to 270 in 2016
Te discussion hus ar ocused on he naional popular voe. By and large, he
naional popular voe is a good guide o predicing he acual winner o he presi-
denial elecion. In ac, he winner o he popular voe ypically no only wins he
Elecoral College voe bu also wins i by a wider margin han heir popular voe
margin. Neverheless, he presidenial winner is, in he end, deermined by who
can assemble a sae-by-sae coaliion o a leas 270 EVs. We now urn o he
sae-by-sae coaliions needed o obain hese 270 voes.
Core Obama and GOP states
In 2012, Presiden Obama carried 26 saes, as well as he Disric o Columbia,
or a oal o 332 EVs. Democras have carried 18 o hese saes plus D.C.
he so-called Blue Wallor a oal o 242 EVs in every elecion since 1992.
O hese 18, he Democraic candidae in 2016 is almos cerain o carry 14 o
hem35Caliornia, Connecicu, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland,
Massachusets, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermon, and
Washingonplus D.C.or a oal o 186 EVs.
Tese are he Democras’ core saes, won easily by he pary’s nominee or six
sraigh presidenial elecions and unlikely o be seriously conesed in his elec-
ion eiher. Bu hese core saes are ar shor o an Elecoral College majoriy, and
he Democraic candidae will sill need 84 more EVs rom some combinaion o
saes o acually win he presidency.
Republicans carried 24 saesAlabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia,
Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kenucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Monana, Nebraska, Norh Carolina, Norh Dakoa, Oklahoma, Souh Carolina, Souh
Dakoa, ennessee, exas, Uah, Wes Virginia, and Wyomingor a oal o 206
EVs in 2012. Tey are almos cerain36 o carry all o hese in 2016, excep Norh
Carolina, or a oal o 191 EVs. Tis is also ar shor o a majoriy, meaning ha
Republicans will need 79 addiional EVs o capure he presidency.
Wih he excepion o New Hampshire, he addiional saes he Democras and
he Republicans need can come rom hree broad geographic areas: he Midwes/
Rus Bel, he Souhwes, and he New Souh. Presiden Obama carried all o
hese saes in 2012 excep or Norh Carolina, which he won in 2008.
The Midwest/Rust Belt
Te Midwes/Rus Bel saes ha could be in play beween he Democraic and
GOP nominees are:
• Iowa: 6 EVs • Michigan: 16 EVs • Minnesoa: 10 EVs • Ohio: 18 EVs
• Pennsylvania: 20 EVs • Wisconsin: 10 EVs
All ogeher, hese six Midwes/Rus Bel arge saes have 80 EVs. When combined
wih Democraic core saes, winning all o hese saes would ge he Democraic
candidae very close o he 270 EV hreshold. Carrying New Hampshire and is 4
EVs in addiion o hese six saes would pu he Democraic candidae a exacly
270, ensuring vicory even wihou any o he Souhwes or New Souh saes.
Conversely, i Republicans can pick up several saes in his regionhey have litle
chance o aking all o hemhey will need o rely less on EVs rom he Souhwes
and New Souh. For example, i Republicans carried Ohio and Pennsylvania, hese
saes would provide almos hal o he EVs hey need o add o heir core saes. Te
res could be provided by Florida and any oher New Souh sae.
Te six Midwes/Rus Bel saes are all slow growing, wih an average populaion
growh rae5.1 percen beween 2000 and 2014well below he naional aver-
age o 13 percen. Consisen wih his slow overall growh, hese saes’ minoriy
populaion share has also grown relaively slowlya 5-poin shif over he same
ime period compared o 7 poins or he naion as a whole. Tese saes are whier han he naional averagean average o 83 percen versus 62 percen or he
naionand heir race-ehnic composiion is shifing more slowly. Tis is a more
avorable dynamic or he GOP han in he wo oher swing regions.
We now discuss hese saes in deail by descending order o EVs.
Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes
Democraic presidenial candidaes have won Pennsylvania or six sraigh elec-
ions going back o 1992. Presiden Obama won he sae by 5 poins in 2012, a
5-poin decline rom his margin o vicory in 2008.
Communiies o color made up 16 percen o Pennsylvania’s voe in 2012, and
hey gave Presiden Obama 94 percen suppor.37 We esimae ha minoriies will
make up approximaely 17 percen o he 2016 Pennsylvania voing elecorae.
Tis increased minoriy voe share will likely help he Democraic candidae.
Conversely, we expec a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, a group who
avored Republican candidae and ormer Massachusets Gov. Mit Romney by
a 54 percen o 44 percen margin in 2012. Tis figure, however, conceals very differen paterns among whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers.
Whie college graduaes spli abou evenly beween Presiden Obama and Gov.
Romney, 49 percen o 50 percen, while whie working-class voers srongly
suppored Gov. Romney by 56 percen o 42 percen. Te good news or he
ALLEGHENY COUNTY
Source: See Figure 2 table.
evenual Democraic nominee is ha he mix o whie voers is shifing oward
college graduaes, wih his group acually growing by jus more han 1 percen-
age poin, while whie working-class voers should decline by 2.5 poins in 2016.
Te Democras’ Pennsylvania coaliion is a growing one ha links communiies o
color wih he expanding par o he whie populaion, while he Republican coali-
ion is rooed in a rapidly declining demographic group.
Looking jus a hese likely shifs in he voer pool, he Democraic candidae
would be expeced o win by a wider margin in 2016. Her or his growing coali-
ion should be larger, and he declining coaliion smaller, han in 2012. Bu
wo criical acors could undercu Democraic voe oals. Te firs is ha he
growing groups ha suppored Presiden Obama in 2012 migh no suppor he
Democraic candidae a he same level in 2016 and perhaps no urn ou he
same raes. Tis drop in suppor and urnou could diminish he Democraic
dividend rom demographic change.
ake communiies o color, or example. As noed, Presiden Obama received 94
percen suppor rom minoriies in Pennsylvania in 2012. Ta unusually high fig-
ure refleced Presiden Obama’s nearly unanimous suppor among Pennsylvania’s
black voers and he ac ha blacks made up wo-hirds o Pennsylvania’s minor-
iy voers compared o abou hal o minoriy voers naionwide. Some alloff in
black suppor or Democras is cerainly possible wih Presiden Obama no on
he ballo. Hispanic enhusiasm or Democras migh also flag, perhaps exacer-
baed by impaience on he immigraion issue, which could bring down heir 89
percen suppor rae rom 2012hough ani-immigran saemens by some
candidaes or he GOP nominaion probably lessens his possibiliy. Tese acors
could erode he Democraic candidae’s overall minoriy suppor level in 2016.
Te second is ha Democras’ hold on whie college graduaes in he sae could
be hreaened. Te move oward Democras is a recen rend among his grow-
ing group and could be reversed by disappoined expecaions, such as a lack o
economic mobiliy due o he relaively slow economic recovery.
Te Democras’ bigges problem is also perhaps he GOP’s bes opporuniy: he
Democras’ coninuing weakness among whie working-class voers in he sae. I hey swing urher away rom he Democraic candidae in 2016, approaching
he 22-poin naionwide defici he Democras suffered in 2012 orworsehe
30-poin naionwide Democraic congressional defici in 2014, i could hand he
Keysone sae o he GOP.38
Breaking down suppor paterns geographically provides anoher lens on he
Democraic candidae’s and he GOP’s chances in he sae. Tis angle reveals
he same parisan growh and decline patern as demographic groups. In a nu-
shell, he Democras’ presidenial voing srengh has been increasing in grow-
ing areas o he sae, while Republicans have held heir own only in declining
pars o he sae.
Te growing areas o Pennsylvania are mosly locaed in hree regions, all o
which are in he easern par o he sae: he norheas, conaining he Allenown
and Reading mero areas; he souheas, conaining he York, Lancaser, and
Harrisburg mero areas; and he Philadelphia suburbs.39 Tese regions are all
noable or having added large numbers o minoriy and whie college-graduae
voers since 2000.40
Presiden Obama carried he Philadelphia suburbswhich grew by 8 percen
beween 2000 and 2014, wih he minoriy populaion up 68 percenby 10 poins in 2012, a 6-poin decline rom his margin in 2008.41 Over he long erm,
Democras have enjoyed an enormous 33-poin improvemen in heir margin o
suppor in he Philadelphia suburbs since 1988.
Presiden Obama carried he norheas regionwhich also grew by 8 percen
beween 2000 and 2014, wih he minoriy populaion up 125 percenby
3 poins in 2012, a 6-poin decline rom 2008 bu a 16-poin shif oward he
Democras since 1988. Te later includes Democraic swings o 25 poins and 14
poins, respecively, in he relaively as-growing Reading and Allenown mero
areas, which, since 2000, have grown by 11 percen and 13 percen, respecively.
Te souheas region o he sae is he ases-growing region in Pennsylvania
is populaion has increased by 13 percen since 2000, wih he minoriy popula-
ion up 79 percen. Republicans won he region by 19 poins in 2012, including
margins o vicory o 19 poins, 8 poins, and 21 poins, respecively, in he hree
as-growing mero areas ha dominae he region: Lancaser, up 13 percen in
overall populaion since 2000; Harrisburg, up 10 percen; and York, up 16 per-
cen. Bu he overall Republican advanage in presidenial elecions in he region
has decreased 10 poins since 2004, which has boosed he Democras’ effors in he sae. Tis ormerly rock-ribbed Republican region has become increasingly
compeiive, shifing oward he Democras by 14 poins since 1988.
ogeher, hese hree growing regionshe norheas, souheas, and
Philadelphia suburbsconribued 53 percen o he Pennsylvania voe. Adding
in Philadelphia isel, where Democras dominae by lopsided margins71 poins
in 2012akes he oal o 65 percen o he saewide voe. Ta leaves only 35
percen o he voe in he res o Pennsylvania, which, while losing populaion, has
been where he GOP has experienced some avorable rends.
Tough Democras did carry Allegheny Counydown 3 percen in populaion
since 2000by our-enhs o a percenage poin, his area has shifed oward he
Republicans by 17 poins since 1988. Te GOP carried he Pitsburgh suburbs/
Erie regiondown 5 percen in populaion since 2000by 11 poins, and he
conservaive norh and cenral region o Pennsylvaniadown 1 percen in popu-
laion since 2000by 27 poins. Te GOP margins in hese regions are 16 poins
and 12 poins, respecivelybeter han hey were in 1988.
Tus, he Obama “coaliion o he ascendan”42 in Pennsylvania included no only growing groups bu also increasing suppor in growing regions. Given his, our
more years o populaion growh should srenghen he Democraic nominee’s
posiion in 2016. Bu, as wih growing groups, Democraic voe oals could be
undercu by significanly worse perormance in declining areas, as well as under-
perormance in growing areas. Since he declining areas consiue only 35 percen
o he saewide voe, i is likely ha growing areas will prove decisive in 2016.
O hese, he Philadelphia suburbs are he larges and make up 22 percen o he
saewide voe, while he souheas is he one mos sympaheic o he GOP. I
hese areas swing significanly oward he Republicans, ha could deliver he sae
o he GOP.
Ulimaely, he Democraic candidae in Pennsylvania will benefi rom a coaliion
based on growing groups and improved suppor in growing regions. However,
wheher his coaliion can survive a siuaion where he economic recovery has
been sluggishespecially as i has affeced wage growhand where here may
be considerable ime-or-a-change senimen direced agains he incumben pary
is an open quesion. Tese acors could give he GOP a decen sho a winning
Pennsylvania and is 20 EVs in 2016.
Ohio: 18 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won Ohio by 3 poins in 2012, 2 poins less han his margin o
vicory in 2008. Communiies o color made up 17 percen o Ohio’s voe in 2012
and voed 91 percen in avor o Presiden Obama. Minoriies should accoun or
18 percen o 2016 Ohio presidenial voersan increase ha should help he
Democraic nominee.
Te flip side o his is a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored
ormer Gov. Romney by a 56 percen o 42 percen margin. Tis 56-42 figure,
however, obscures, as i does in many saes, differen paterns among whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers. Ohio’s whie college graduaes spli 44
percen o 55 percen beween Presiden Obama and Gov. Romney, while whie
working-class voers were more pro-GOP, supporing Obama a 41 percen and
Romney a 57 percen. Given hese paterns, he Democraic nominee in 2016
Counties
should benefi rom ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer pool ha are likely
o produce a 2-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a 1-poin increase
in whie college graduaes. So, as wih Pennsylvaniahough no as srongly
Presiden Obama’s Ohio coaliion is a growh coaliion ha links communiies o
color wih he growing par o he whie populaion, while he GOP coaliion is
rooed in he declining secor o whies.
Based only on hese likely shifs in he voer pool, he Democraic candidae
would be expeced o win by a wider margin in 2016, as her or his growing coali-
ion expands and he GOP declining coaliion conracs. Bu Democraic suppor
levels wihin he growh coaliion migh no hold. As noed, Presiden Obama
received 91 percen suppor rom minoriies in 2012. Ta figure was driven by
his 96 percen suppor among Ohio’s black voers, who made up abou hree-
quarers o he minoriy voe. In ligh o economic difficulies experienced by he
black populaion in Ohio; Presiden Obama no being on he icke; and he less
hisoric naure o he upcoming campaign, some alloff rom ha 96 percen figure is cerainly possible. Tese acors could bring down he Democraic candidae’s
overall suppor level rom minoriies in 2016.
Whie college graduaeshe oher par o he Obama growh coaliioncould
presen a more serious opporuniy or a Republican win. Presiden Obama’s
11-poin defici among his group in 2012 represened considerable erosion rom
his perormance in 2008, when he nearly broke even among his group. Significan
addiional movemen oward he GOP among his group could hand hem vicory
given Presiden Obama’s narrow margin in 2012.
Finally, he group mos sympaheic o he GOP is he whie working class. Gov.
Romney won hese voers in Ohio by 16 poins in 2012. Tere is ample room
or a sharper swing oward he GOP in 2016 and, depending on he deph o
ha swing, i could cerainly ip he sae o he Republicans, paricularly i he
Democras’ base weakens.
In erms o geographic voing paterns, Ohio is growing paricularly slowlyup
jus 2 percen since 2000. Bu here is quie a bi o variaion wihin he sae,
wih some areas growing airly rapidly and ohers barely growing a all or declining. Mirroring rends in Pennsylvania, Democras have been making heir bigges
gains in hese growh areas.
Te Columbus mero area, which accouns or 16 percen o he saewide voe,
is easily he ases growing area in he sae. Te populaion has grown by 20 per-
cen since 2000, and he minoriy populaion is up 62 percen. Compared o oher
pars o Ohio, he Columbus mero area has seen he bigges decline in he share
o whie working-class eligible voers, as well as he sharpes increases in he shares
o whie college-graduae and minoriy voers. 43
Presiden Obama carried he area by 7 poins in 2012, a 3-poin increase in margin compared o 2008, despie sup-
por or him declining overall across Ohio.
In he very as-growing Columbus suburbs, which have grown by 29 percen
since 2000wih he minoriy populaion up 132 percenPresiden Obama
had a defici o 19 poins in 2012. Bu in Franklin Counyhe cenral couny o
he mero area ha conains he urban corePresiden Obama won handily by 23
poins. Tere has also been a 34-poin pro-Democraic presidenial voing swing
in he Columbus mero area since 1988. Tis includes an incredible 44-poin
swing in Franklin Couny, and a 20-poin swing in he Columbus suburbs.
Te second ases-growing mero area in he sae is he Cincinnai mero area,
which accouns or 15 percen o he saewide voehough is growh rae
is a ar more modes 6 percenwih he minoriy populaion up 33 percen
since 2000. Gov. Romney won he Cincinnai mero by 12 poins in 2012, bu
Democras are doing subsanially beter in he area han hey did when hen-Sen.
John Kerry los Ohio in 2004. Over he longer erm, here has been a 17-poin
swing in presidenial voing oward he Democras since 1988.
Democras have also made subsanial progress in he norhwes region o Ohio,44
which includes he oledo mero area, several smaller mero areas, and many rural
counies ha are mosly declining in populaion. Democras almos broke even
in he area in 2012, losing by only 3 poins, and here has been a 15-poin swing
oward Democras since 1988.
In 2012, Democras won Cuyahoga Couny, he cenral couny o he Cleveland
mero area, by a wide margin40 poinsand broke even in he Cleveland sub-
urbs, 49 percen o 49 percen. Overall, he Cleveland mero area, which accouns
or 19 percen o he saewide voe, wen or Presiden Obama by 24 poinsa 15-poin Democraic swing relaive o 1988.
Te norheas region, which includes he Akron, Canon, and Youngsown
mero areas, wen Democraic by 6 poins in 2012, while he souh region, which
includes he Dayon mero area and a grea many rural counies, suppored Gov.
Romney by 11 poins. In he norheas, he shif oward he Democras since 1988
has been quie modesonly 3 poins.
Tese rends in he growing pars o his very slow-growh sae have generally
srenghened Presiden Obama’s Ohio coaliion. Bu will hese rends hold upin 2016? Some o hese growing areas, such as he Columbus suburbs and he
Cincinnai mero area, are ar more Democra-riendly han hey used o be bu
remain airly conservaive and are erile ground or a poenial GOP resurgence.
And Republican gains in he growing par o Ohio would pu a grea deal o pres-
sure on Democraic perormance in he Cleveland mero area and in he norheas
where, as we have seen, Democras have made only weak gains over ime.
Michigan: 16 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won Michigan airly easily by more han 9 poins in 2012, and
Democras have won he sae in six-sraigh presidenial elecions. Bu in 2004 and
2000, he GOP came wihin 3 poins and 5 poins, respecively, demonsraing ha
he sae can be very compeiiveand could be so in he coming elecion.
Communiies o color made up 19 percen o Michigan’s voe in 2012 and voed89 percen or Presiden Obama. We esimae ha minoriies should accoun
or 20 percen o he Michigan voe in 2016. Concomianly, here should be a
1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored Gov. Romney by 52 percen
o 46 percen. Bu suppor paterns were significanly differen among whie
working-class and whie college-graduae voers in 2012.
Michigan’s whie college graduaes spli abou evenly beween Presiden Obama
and Gov. Romney, 49 percen o 51 percen, while whie working-class voers
avored Romney by 53 percen o 45 percen. Ta resul suggess ha Democras
may be modesly helped by ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer pool ha should reduce he weigh o whie working-class voers by 2 poins and increase
ha o whie college-graduae voers by 1 poin in he 2016 elecion.
Te overall effec o likely shifs in he voer pool in 2016 should hereore
avor he Democraic candidae. Te real issue or Democras will be susaining
heir suppor levels among hese various groups. Presiden Obama received 89
percen suppor rom minoriies in 2012 driven by 98 percen suppor among
Michigan’s black voers, who made up 70 percen o he minoriy voe. Falloff
rom ha 98 percen figure is plausible and could significanly weaken Democras’
overall minoriy suppor in 2012. Presiden Obama’s 68 percen suppor among
Lainoswhose weigh among Michigan voers is much smaller bu growing
will also be imporan or Democras o mainain.
Whie college graduaes could provide a significan boos or he GOP i hey
drif away rom a more even spli and back oward he 17-poin Republican
advanage he GOP enjoyed among his group in 2004. Te Democras’ chie
challenge in Michigan may be mainaining heir whie working-class suppor,
since he 2012 elecion showed signs o significan erosion among his group;
Democras acually carried whie working-class voers in 2008. Te key or he Democraic candidae will be damage minimizaionavoiding a massive pro-
Republican shif among his group.
In erms o geographic voing paterns, Michigan is he slowes growing sae in
he counry. In ac, i was he only sae wih negaive populaion growh, acually
declining by hree-enhs o a percenage poin beween 2000 and 2014. Bu pars
o Michigan did grow. Te wo ases-growing regions, he Deroi suburbs and
he souhwes,45 have each grown by 6 percen since 2000, wih communiies o
color providing he overwhelming proporion o he growh in boh areas.
Te Deroi suburbs are also noable or showing he sharpes rends in he
changes affecing all Michigan regions: declining shares o whie working-class
voers and increasing shares o minoriy and whie college-graduae voers. Te
later voers have been rending excepionally sharply oward Democras in his
region. Presiden Obama carried he Deroi suburbs by 51 percen o 48 percen
in 2012, down rom 54 percen o 45 percen in 2008. Bu ha 3-poin margin was
6 poins beter han hen-Sen. Kerry did in 2004.
Looking back o 1988, Democras have made an impressive 26-poin improvemen in heir presidenial voe margin in he Deroi suburbs. Tis is equal o heir
gain over he same ime period in Wayne Couny, he urban core o he Deroi
mero area. Tese improvemens have ranslaed ino overwhelming dominance
o he Deroi mero area as whole60 percen Democraic o 40 percen
Republican which consiues 44 percen o he saewide voe.
Te souhwes region, which is generally considered he mos conservaive in
Michigan, has also seen significan movemen oward he Democras over ime.
Ten-Sen. Kerry los he souhwes by 16 poins in 2004, so Presiden Obama’s
8-poin defici in he region in 2012 acually represened an 8-poin swing oward
he Democras. During he enire 1988 o 2012 period, Democras improved heir
posiion in he region by 18 poins. Te souhwes region conribues jus more
han one-fifh o he saewide voe.
Te so-called universiy corridor conribues anoher one-fifh o he saewide
voe. Te corridor is a cluser o counies o he immediae wes and souh o he
Deroi mero area ha includes he Lansing and Ann Arbor mero areas, home,
respecively, o Michigan Sae Universiy and he Universiy o Michigan. I is also
he oher region o he sae where some growh is aking place, paricularly in he relaively as-growing Ann Arbor mero area, which has grown 11 percen since
2000he second-ases mero-area growh rae in he sae. In 2012, Presiden
Obama carried he universiy corridor by a very srong 58 percen o 40 percen
margin, an 8-poin improvemen over hen-Sen. Kerry’s 2004 perormance.
Looking back o 1988, here has been a 17-poin pro-Democraic presidenial vo-
ing swing in his region.
Indeed, only in he lighly populaed cenral region45 percen o 54 percen
in 2012and even more lighly populaed Upper Peninsula region48 percen
o 51 percen in 2012have Democraic gains since 1988 been modes or even
negaive. In he cenral region, he gain has been jus 6 poins, while he GOP
has managed o acually gain 7 poins in he Upper Peninsula. Bu he later
region is only 3 percen o he saewide voe, and is populaion is down 3
percen since 2000.
Tus, as in Ohio, Presiden Obama’s Michigan coaliion has been srenghened by
rends in he growing pars o a very slow-growh saea sae where he overall populaion has acually declined. Some o hese Democraic gains may be vulner-
able, such asor examplein he souhwes, which is ar more sympaheic o
he GOP han he Deroi suburbs or universiy corridor. And he later areas oo
could provide opporuniies or he Republicans i ime-or-a-change senimen
runs deep come elecion ime. I is also possible ha he sluggish recovery, wih
minimal income gains or workers hus ar, could provide an opening or he GOP
in a sae ha should oherwise be an easy hold or he Democras.
Minnesota: 10 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won Minnesoa wih an 8-poin margin in 2012, and Democras
have acually won he sae in 10 sraigh presidenial elecions. Te las ime he
Democras los in a presidenial elecion in Minnesoa was in 1972, when Richard
Nixon wiped ou George McGovern. Te Democras’ margins, however, were
small in 2004 and 20003 poins and 2 poins, respecivelyso he sae could
possibly be in play come 2016 despie he Democras’ curren winning sreak.
Communiies o color made up 9 percen o Minnesoa’s voe in 2012 and voed 78 percen in avor o Presiden Obama. We esimae ha minoriies will increase
o 11 percen o he 2016 Minnesoa voing elecorae.
Counties
We esimae a 1.4-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored Presiden
Obama by 50 percen o 47 percen. Among whies, voing paterns among
whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers were modesly differen.
Minnesoa’s whie working-class voers suppored Presiden Obama bu only
very narrowly49 percen o 48 percenwhile he sae’s whie college gradu-
aes gave him a more robus 5-poin margin a 52 percen o 47 percen. Tameans he Democraic candidae should derive some benefi rom ongoing shifs
in he declining whie voer pool ha are likely o produce more han a 2-poin
decrease in whie working-class voers and a 0.6 percenage poin increase in
whie college-graduae voers in 2016. Te Obama Minnesoa coaliion is he
classic Democraic growh coaliion ha links communiies o color wih he
growing par o he whie populaionbu wih unusually high whie suppor
among working-class whies.
Tese likely shifs in he voer pool would, all else equal, produce a larger vic-
ory margin or he Democraic nominee in 2016 han in 2012. And Democras’ minoriy suppor, in conras o oher swing saes, was no so high in 2012 ha he
pary’s candidae should have much difficuly replicaing or surpassing ha level
in 2016. Bu mainaining a solid advanage among whie college graduaes could
be challenging or Democras, as could keeping heir rough pariy wih he GOP
among whie working-class voers. Te later could be especially erile ground or
Republicans given rising populis senimen during he sluggish economic recov-
ery. While he Democraic nominee can afford some slippage among his group,
he sae could slip away rom he Democras i here is a powerul break oward he
GOP, given how large hese voers sill weigh in Minnesoa’s elecorae.
urning o geographic voing paterns, Minnesoa is a relaively slow-growh
sae11 percen growh since 2000 compared o he naional average o 13
percenbu is growing aser han very slow-growh saes such as Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Tis growh is driven almos enirely by expansion
in he Minneapolis mero area, which provides 62 percen o he Minnesoa voe.
Te Minneapolis mero area grew by 15 percen beween 2000 and 2014, wih he
minoriy populaion up by 73 percen and accouning or 77 percen o popula-
ion growh. Te nex larges mero area in Minnesoa is he very slow-growing
Duluh mero area, which grew by 2 percen and only provides 5 percen o he saewide voe. Aside rom Minneapolis and Duluh, he Rocheser and S. Cloud
mero areas are airly as growingup 17 percen and 15 percen, respecively
bu provide only 3 percen each o Minnesoa’s voe.
Te real batle or Minnesoa will be ough in he Minneapolis mero area, which
gave Presiden Obama a 13-poin margin in 20125 poins larger han he
margin he mero gave hen-Sen. Kerry in 2004 in his very modes 3-poin vicory.
Demographically, he area is changing in ways ha should benefi he Democraic
candidaegrowh here is primarily ueled by communiies o colorbu he
GOP will vigorously ry o reduce heir defici by running up heir suppor in moreGOP-riendly ouer suburban counies such as Anoka, Scot, and Washingon.
All in all, however, compared o oher compeiive Midwes/Rus Bel saes,
Minnesoa should be a airly easy hold or he evenual Democraic nominee.
Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
Minorities 87% 12% 1
White college graduates 50% 49% 1 White working class 48% 50% -2
Presiden Obama won Wisconsin by a 7-poin margin in 2012, down rom 14
poins in 2008, and Democras have won he sae seven sraigh imes going
back o 1988. Democras’ vicories in 2000 and 2004 were razor hin, how-
ever0.2 poins and 0.4 poins respecivelyso he sae is cerainly capable o
being compeiive.
Communiies o color made up 10 percen o Wisconsin’s voe in 2012 and
voed 87 percen or Presiden Obama. We expec minoriies o be 11 percen
o 2016 Wisconsin voers. Ta implies a 1-poin drop in he whie share o
voers, who avored Gov. Romney, albei by a very hin 50 percen o 49 per-
cen margin. Whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers differed
in Wisconsin, hough no as much as in some oher saes. Wisconsin’s whie
working-class voers suppored Gov. Romney 50 percen o 48 percen, while
he sae’s whie college graduaes slighly avored Presiden Obama 50 percen
o 49 percen. Te Democraic candidae should hereore benefi modesly
rom ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer pool, which are likely o produce a 2.4-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a 1.4-poin increase
in whie college graduaes in 2016.
Tese likely shifs in he composiion o he voer pool should benefi he
Democraic nominee in 2016. Bu she or he will have o avoid crippling losses in
voer suppor among key groups. Democras’ minoriy suppor needs o remain
very high, and here is cerainly poenial or alloff in heir 98 percen suppor
among black voers or 74 percen suppor rom Hispanicshe prime driver o
Wisconsin’s increasing minoriy populaion.
Mainaining Democras’ modes advanage among whie college graduaes may
be more difficul. Te 2012 suppor levels already represen considerable atriion
rom 2008 suppor levels. I addiional erosion among whie college graduaes
occurs or he Democras, he Republican nominee will be in a srong posiion o
capialize on a poenial surge in whie working-class suppor. Presiden George
W. Bush had an 8-poin advanage among his later group in 2004; i he 2016
Republican nominee is able o increase ha margin, he GOP could have a real
chance in he sae.
In erms o geographic voing paterns, Wisconsin, like oher saes in he
Midwes/Rus Bel, is a slow-growh sae7 percen compared o he naional
average o 13 percenbu is growing aser han very slow-growh saes such
as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Te ases-growing mero area is he
Madison mero area, he second larges in he sae, which has grown 19 percen
in he period rom 2000 o 2014. Te minoriy populaion in his area hasgrown by 85 percen, accouning or 51 percen o growh. Madison conribues
11 percen o he saewide voe and has shifed o he Democras in presidenial
voing by 23 poins since 1988. Presiden Obama carried Madison by a sunning
40 poins in 2012.
Te Milwaukee mero area, he larges in he sae, accouns or 28 percen o he
saewide voe. In conras o Madison, i is relaively slow growing, up only 5
percen since 2000. Te minoriy populaion in he area grew by 32 percen and
accouned or 171 percen o populaion growhin oher words, wihou minor-
iy growh, he Milwaukee mero area would have experienced significan populaion decline. Te area gave Presiden Obama a 5-poin margin in 2012, acually 2
poins less han Michael Dukakis’ margin in 1988.
Combined, Milwaukee and Madison alone accoun or 40 percen o he saewide
voe. Wih no oher mero area accouning or more han 5 percen o he voe, he
cones or Wisconsin will cener on hese wo mero areas. In paricular, he GOP
will be seeking o move he Milwaukee mero area back oward he break-even
poinwhere Presiden Bush was in 2004which would pu he Democraic
hold on he sae in real danger. Republicans will also pu pressure on Democraic
perormance in smaller mero areas, such as Green Bay, 5 percen o he saewide
voe; Appleon, 4 percen; Racine, 3 percen; Janesville, 3 percen; Eau Claire, 3
percen; and Oshkosh, 3 percen; where Presiden Obama’s win vicories in 2008
and in 2012 marked srong gains over hen-Sen. Kerry’s perormance in 2004.
Iowa: 6 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won Iowa by a 6-poin margin in 2012, and Democras have
won he sae in six o he las seven presidenial elecions. Te wo presidenial
elecions immediaely preceding 2008, however, eaured a GOP win by 0.7 poins
in 2004, as well as a very narrow GOP loss by 0.3 poins in 2000. Te recen pas
indicaes ha Iowa may well be in play in 2016.
Communiies o color made up 6 percen o Iowa’s voe in 2012 and voed 88
percen or Presiden Obama. We projec ha minoriies should accoun or 7
percen o he 2016 Iowa voing elecorae.
We projec a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored Presiden
Obama by 50 percen o 49 percen in 2012. Among whies, voing paterns among whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers differed bu no
in he way ypical o mos saes. Iowa’s whie working-class voers suppored
Presiden Obama by 51 percen o 47 percen, while he sae’s whie college-grad-
uae voers suppored Gov. Romney by 52 percen o 47 percen. Based on hese
Counties
Minorities 88% 10% 1
daa, he GOP should acually be slighly helped by ongoing shifs in he declining
whie voer pool ha are likely o produce a 2-poin decrease in whie working-
class voers and a 1-poin increase in whie college graduaes in 2016.
Likely shifs in he composiion o he Iowa voer pool in 2016 hereore do no
clearly avor he Democras as much as in oher similar saes. Ta pus exraemphasis on he Democraic nominee’s key ask: avoiding large losses in voer
suppor among key groups. Te Democraic nominee’s minoriy suppor needs
o remain high and avoiding urher slippage among whie college graduaesas
Democras experienced in 2012will be crucial.
Bu he Democraic nominee’s mos difficul challengeand he GOP’s grea
opporuniyis he possibiliy o a sharp drop in he Democras’ solid whie
working-class suppor, which was clearly cenral o heir 2012 vicory. I he
Democras’ whie working-class suppor is ar souh o he break-even poin, and i
he Democraic candidae ails o energize he small bu significan minoriy voe, he GOP has a serious chance o aking he sae.
In erms o geographic voing paterns, Iowa is a slow-growh sae, wih 6 percen
populaion growh since 2000 compared o he naional average o 13 percen.
By ar he ases-growing mero area is Des Moines, up 27 percen over he
same ime period. Te minoriy populaion is up 97 percen and accouns or 41
percen o he area’s growh. I is also Iowa’s larges mero area, conribuing 19
percen o he saewide voe. Presiden Obama carried Des Moines by 8 poins in
2012, which was 8 poins beter han hen-Sen. Kerry in 2004.
Te second larges mero area is Cedar Rapids, which is also growing airly
as. Te populaion is up 11 percen since 2000, and he minoriy populaion
has grown by 93 percen. Te area accouns or 9 percen o he saewide voe.
Presiden Obama carried he Cedar Rapids area by 15 poins in 2012, 7 poins
beter han hen-Sen. Kerry in 2004.
Afer ha, here are a series o smaller mero areas ha each accoun or 3 percen
o 6 percen o he saewide voe. From larges o smalles, hese are: Davenpor,
Iowa Ciy, Waerloo, Council Bluffs, Sioux Ciy, Dubuque, and Ames. ogeher, hey conribue less han one-hird, or 29 percen, o Iowa’s voe. Mos o hese
mero areas are in he eas or cenral pars o he sae and gave Presiden Obama
srong margins ranging rom 14 poins in Davenpor, Ames, and Waerloo o 31
poins in he as-growing Iowa Ciy, which has grown by 25 percen since 2000.
Te wo mero areas a he wesern end o he sae, Sioux Ciy and Council Bluffs,
were quie differen: Sioux Ciy avored Presiden Obama by jus 1 poin and
Council Bluffs avored Gov. Romney by 8 poins.
Iowa’s voe lacks he clear geographic ulcrums ha characerize he oher com-
peiive Midwesern and Rus Bel saes. Ta said, he nine mero areas men-ioned above accoun or 57 percen o he saewide voe, so he 2016 presidenial
cones will likely be concenraed in hese areas. I he GOP can significanly roll
back Democraic gains in hese areas, paricularly in cenral and easern Iowa,
Republicans will have a serious chance o aking he sae in 2016.
The six Midwest swing states are all marked by slow growth and a relatively small
and slow-growing percentage of voters from communities of color. These states are
projected to average around 14 percent minority voters in 2016, ranging from a low
of 7 percent in Iowa to a high of 20 percent in Michigan. But the Democrats’ relatively
small base of minority voters is supplemented by fairly strong support among these
states’ growing white college-graduate populations, who gave President Obama an
average deficit of only 2 points in 2012, whereas the national deficit among white
college graduates was 11 points. This coalition of the ascendant has produced
increased Democratic support in growing areas of these states.
Moreover, the weight of that coalition should be larger in these states in 2016 than
in 2012, with an average 2-point increase in the percent of white college graduates
and minorities among voters, as well as a 2-point decline in the percent of white
working-class voters. In addition, the Democratic nominee should benefit from
the fact that Midwestern and Rust Belt white working-class voters tend to be more
supportive of Democrats than in other competitive states, averaging only a 6-point
Democratic deficit in 2012.
Time-for-a-change sentiment, rising populist feelings, and the sluggish economic
recovery, however, could tax that relative friendliness among the white working class
toward the Democrats and could also reduce enthusiasm for the Democratic candi-
date among the coalition of the ascendant. That could give Republicans an opening in these states, especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where pro-GOP leanings are
Midwest/Rust Belt summary
strongest among the white working class. Of the two, Ohio is the best target for
the GOP since the state was closer in 2012, and the state’s white college graduates
gave Republicans more support in that election than in any of the other competitive
Midwestern/Rust Belt states.
If the Democrats do manage to lose only Ohio among the competitive Midwestern/ Rust Belt states, that would add 62 EVs to their core support of 186 for a total of 248
EVs, leaving them only 22 short of victory. Twenty of these EVs could be provided by
the three Southwestern states President Obama carried in 2008 and 2012.
Carrying Ohio is central to GOP prospects in 2016 because it is their best chance of
stopping a Democratic sweep of the swing Midwestern/Rust Belt states. And if the
GOP carried Ohio and Pennsylvania in addition to their core support, that would
leave them only 41 EVs short of victory. Those 41 EVs could be provided by a com-
bination of Florida and any other New South state or by Florida, Colorado, and any
other Southwestern state.
The swing Southwestern states thus loom large in both parties’ calculations. We now
turn to an analysis of these states.
The Southwest
Te Souhwes includes hree saes ha could be in play beween he Democraic
and he GOP nominees:
• New Mexico: 5 EVs
Te Democraic campaign does no appear likely o seriously cones Monana
and is 3 EVseven hough Sen. John McCain won i by only 2 poins in 2008.
Nor is Arizona, wih is 11 EVs, likely o be a rue cones, hough he rapid rae o
demographic change in he sae will likely pu i in play by he 2020’s. ogeher,
hese hree Souhwesern arge saes have 20 EVs and could, or example,
more han make up or a Democraic loss o Ohio and is 18 EVs. I added o he
Democras’ core saes and he oher five compeiive Midwesern/Rus Bel saes carried by Presiden Obama in 2008 and 2012, hese saes would leave he
Democraic candidae only wo EVs shor o vicory.
Te GOP sraegy will ocus on adding a leas one Souhwesern swing sae
o he saes hey are able o pick off in he Midwes/Rus Bel, seting he pary
up o claim vicory hrough success in he New Souh. For example, i he GOP
carries Ohio and any Souhwesern sae, hey can win he presidency by car-
rying he hree swing New Souh saes: Florida, Norh Carolina, and Virginia.
Alernaively, i he GOP carries Ohio and Pennsylvania and hen Colorado and
Nevada, simply aking Florida would be enough o give hem an elecoral vicory.
Tese hree Souhwesern saes are all as growing relaive o he naional aver-
age. New Mexico’s 15 percen growh rae and Colorado’s 23 percen growh rae
since 2000, however, are dwared by Nevada’s 42 percen over he same period,
easily making i he ases-growing sae in he counry. Nevada’s growh in
minoriy populaion sharea 14-poin shif since 2000was also ar greaer
han he 6-poin increase in Colorado and New Mexico. Nevada’s overall minoriy
populaion share o 49 percen, however, sill lags ar behind ha o New Mexico
a 61 percen, hough i is considerably higher han Colorado’s a 31 percen.
Despie hese differences, hese Souhwesern saes presen a demographic profile
and growh dynamic ha are more avorable overall or he Democraic nominee
han he Midwes and Rus Bel swing region, where he heavily whie populaions
and slow pace o demographic change are relaively advanageous or he GOP.
We now provide a deailed discussion o hese saes in descending order o EVs.
Colorado: 9 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won he sae by 5 poins in 2012, down rom a 9-poin advan-
age in 2008.
Communiies o color made up 18 percen o Colorado’s voe in 2008 and voed
79 percen or Presiden Obama. Our esimae is ha minoriies, driven by he burgeoning Hispanic populaion, will accoun or abou 20 percen o he 2016
Colorado voing elecorae. Tis means a 2-poin drop in he whie share o vo-
ers, who avored Gov. Romney by 52 percen o 46 percen in 2012. Unlike oher
saes considered here, he suppor paterns among whie working-class and whie
EAST
college-graduae voers are very close. Colorado’s whie college graduaes avored
Gov. Romney by 51 percen o 46 percen, while whie working-class voers sup-
pored Romney by slighly more a 53 percen o 45 percen.
Given hese paterns, he Democraic candidae should benefi, bu only slighly,
rom ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer pool ha are likely o produce a2.3-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a 0.3-poin increase in whie
college graduaes in 2016.
Demographic shifs in voer share, paricularly he rise o minoriies, should
hereore pu he Democraic nominee in a sronger posiion in Colorado in 2016,
as her or his growing coaliion expands and he GOP nominee’s declining coali-
ion conracs. Bu here are challenges or he Democraic nominee. Presiden
Obama received 79 percen suppor rom minoriies in 2012 driven by 75 percen
suppor among Colorado’s Hispanic voers, who made up almos wo-hirds o he
sae’s minoriy voe. Clearly, i Hispanic suppor or he Democraic nominee alls significanly rom is relaively high 2012 level, ha would be a boon or he GOP.
Whie college graduaes, he oher par o he Democraic growh coaliion,
could be criical in 2016 as well. Te 2012 Democraic defici among his group
is a considerable alloff rom Presiden Obama’s solid advanage in 2008. Te
GOP candidae will seek o capialize on his rend and shif his group urher
oward he GOP.
Ten here is he group mos sympaheic o he GOP: he whie working class.
Tere is cerainly room or a sharper swing owards he Republicans in 2016
given rising populis and ime-or-a-change senimen. I he GOP advanage
among hese voers increases o, and perhaps surpasses, he levels enjoyed by
Sen. McCain in 2008, he Republican nominee would have a serious chance o
aking he sae.
As previously menioned, Colorado is a as-growing sae, up 23 percen in
populaion since 2000. And where Colorado has been growing, Democras have
generally been improving heir posiionone o he keys o Presiden Obama’s
vicories in 2008 and 2012.
Consider firs he Denver mero area, ar and away he larges mero area in he
sae and accouning or hal he saewide voe. Te Denver mero area is expe-
riencing he mos rapid demographic change in he sae, wih he share o whie
working-class voers declining sharply, while he numbers o whie college-gradu-
ae and minoriy voers are surging. o examine rends in he Denver mero area,
i is useul o divide i ino hree pars: Denver couny, he urban core; he innersuburbs, which include Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Adams counies; and he ouer

the path to 270 in 2016: can the obama coalition survive?

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