The Physical Observing System: From Monitoring and Predicting Hazards to Long Term Changes

Doug WilsonCo-Chairman, IOCARIBE-GOOSU.S. NOAA

GEO CZCP WorkshopEarth Observation Support for Sustainable Tourism in Small Island StatesMarch 9-11, 2011, San Juan, Puerto Rico

GOOS – the Global Ocean Observing System - is the Ocean component of GEOSS, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems.

IOCARIBE-GOOS is the GOOS Regional Alliance for the Caribbean Region.

OCEATLAN

The countries of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico need GOOS as a fundamental tool for development and sustainable use of the marine and coastal environment. The following priorities to be addressed by IOCARIBE-GOOS were determined at the first GOOS Users Forum in 1999:

TOURISM

COASTAL POPULATIONS

FISHERIES

AGRICULTURE

MARINE POLLUTION

MARITIME SAFETY

WEATHER FORECASTING

STORMS AND HURRICANES

The goal is to provide necessary information through an integrated system of

• Observations

• Data Management Services

• Models

• Products

through a cooperative network of providers and users.

A primary task of this workshop is to consider what products (and thus what observations and models) are needed to support sustainable tourism; job of GOOS and other providers is to implement a system that will deliver these to managers, planners, businesses, governments, and citizens who will use them.

Integrated Caribbean Water Level Network

Deemed a priority by IOCARIBE in 2004:

• Monitoring and Planning for Climate

Change impacts

• Circulation / Altimetry

• Monitoring Coastal Erosion

• Forecasting and Mitigating Inundation

due to storms

• Tsunami Detection and Validation

• Marine Commerce

Prior to the 2004 Indonesian tsunami there was ONE (non-US) reliable real-time satellite reporting water level gauge in the Caribbean.

Now there are dozens but a need for integration and products.

Caribbean Sea Level Network

Status reported GLOSS IX 02/05

OPER / XMIT

Contributing RTX, Contributing RTX (DART), Existing, Gap, Planned, Non Operational/Unknown

•Caribbean Sea Level Monitoring StationsCaribbean Sea Level Monitoring Stations

NOAA NWS Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ctwp/

•

Water Level and Winds drive ocean circulation. Another important observation is coastal meteorology; necessary if we want to correctly force local circulation models providing the basis for accurate local forecasts of waves, currents, and water quality.

Models must be developed and validated based on observations.

But once established they can be used for regional forecasting OR used as a basis for local coastal models, as is being done by CARICOOS. These local models are critical components for understanding and predicting local conditions importance to tourism – coastal erosion and inundation, pollution and water quality, and beach erosion and sediment transport.

NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch combines research, in situ observations, and remote sensing to to assess and forecast potential damage to coral reefs by high water temperatures.

Sustained high quality long-term measurements are critical for detecting and planning for effects of climate change.

“ IOCARIBE-GOOS is a basic source of information, services and products to support sustainable social and economic development, welfare, and safety, through systematic observations and associated research on coasts and seas in the IOCARIBE region.

The system is operational in nature and designed to yield products and services that meet the needs of users.

It provides information on the past, present and future state of the marine and coastal environment, on marine ecosystems and biodiversity, and on weather and climate variability.

It is also a tool for integrated management of the coastal zone.

International cooperation and capacity building are essential to the effective operation of the system and to enable potential users to benefit from it.”

Some final comments:

Observational and modeling capabilities are improving rapidly.

We need to understand the needs of the [tourism] sector, develop useful products, and establish the environmental and economic value of their use in order to support (and justify) the underlying observations and research.

We need to look to new organizational structures and partnerships;

Community data collection and observational support;

Efficient exchange of information and best practices.

Sea Level, Climate Change, and the Chesapeake Bay

A joint project between NOAA, regional IOOS partners, NGOs, and National Geographic to combine data and model results in an accessible format.