the pit and the pendulum - cloudinary · 2016-03-21 · source: international monetary fund,...
TRANSCRIPT
By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc.
February 12, 2015
The Pit and the Pendulum
On Behalf of
Park City Chamber/Bureau
Dawn of the Dead
Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Projected 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)
Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region %
1 Turkmenistan Central Asia 10.1 169 Netherlands Europe 0.6
2 Chad Africa 9.6 170 France Europe 0.4
3 Mongolia Asia 9.1 171 Brazil South America 0.3
4 Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa 8.6 172 Russia Eastern Europe 0.2
5 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.5 173 Solomon Islands Pacific Islands 0.1
6 Myanmar Southeast Asia 8.5 174 San Marino Europe 0.0
7 Mozambique Africa 8.3 175 Italy Europe -0.2
8 Ethiopia Africa 8.2 176 Finland Northern Europe -0.2
9 Sierra Leone Africa 8.0 177 Serbia Eastern Europe -0.5
10 China Asia 7.4 178 Barbados Caribbean -0.6
11 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 179 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.8
12 The Gambia Africa 7.4 180 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.1
13 Tanzania Africa 7.2 181 Argentina South America -1.7
14 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.2 182 Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.5
15 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Iraq Middle East -2.7
16 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.0 184 Venezuela South America -3.0
17 Nigeria Africa 7.0 185 Cyprus Europe -3.2
18 Mauritania Africa 6.8 186 Ukraine Eastern Europe -6.5
19 Burkina Faso Africa 6.7 187 South Sudan Africa -12.3
20 Panama Central America 6.6 188 Libya Middle East -19.8
Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected*
3.2% 0.3%
1.3% 3.3%
6.3% 6.8%
6.4% -3.0%
2.9% 4.9%
4.3% 3.6%
2.3% 2.7%
0.6% 2.9% 2.8%
2.0% 0.4%
1.3% 0.9% 1.2%
2.4%
-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%
MexicoBrazil
Latin America and CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India***China
Developing AsiaRussia
Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging/developing countries**United States
CanadaUnited Kingdom
JapanAustralia
New ZealandSpain
ItalyGermany
FranceEuro area
Advanced economies
Annual % Change
Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update (Estimates for Australia & New Zealand are as of October 2014.)
*Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during December 8, 2014–January 5, 2015.
**The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies.
***For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices.
Corresponding growth rates for GDP at factor cost are 5.6 and 6.3 percent for 2014/15 and 2015/16, respectively.
Jobs 0.3%
Incomes 4.7%
Profits 61.0%
Housing -6.8%
Stocks 33.5%
-70%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Per
cen
t ch
ange
sin
ce e
nd
of
200
7
What Lies Beneath
Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance
*Through June 2014
Married with
Children 39%
Empty Nesters
20%
Single No Children
23%
Couple No Children
18%
- By Marital Status
Park City Visitors Demographic 2013/14 Season
Condo/ Vacation
Home 48%
Hotel/Motel/
Lodge 23%
Family & Friends
17%
Time-share 12%
- By Accommodation
*1% of visitors stay at B&B.
9.5%
6.5%
6.5%
8.6%
California
New York
Florida
International
- By Place of Residence
Source: Park City Chamber of Commerce, Convention & Visitors Bureau
< $50,000 9%
$50,000-99,999
14%
$100,000-149,999
20%
$150,000-199,999
13%
$200,000+ 44%
- By Household Income
Park City Visitor Nights Year-to-date through 3rd Quarter, 2004 – 2014
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Vis
ito
r N
igh
ts (
in M
illi
on
s),
Ye
ar-
to-d
ate
th
ru Q
3 20
14
Source: Park City Chamber of Commerce, Convention & Visitors Bureau
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q4 through 2014Q4
*SA, Constant 1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+
$320
$325
$330
$335
$340
$345
$350
200
0Q
4
200
1Q2
200
1Q4
200
2Q2
200
2Q4
200
3Q2
200
3Q4
200
4Q
2
200
4Q
4
200
5Q2
200
5Q4
200
6Q
2
200
6Q
4
200
7Q2
200
7Q4
200
8Q
2
200
8Q
4
200
9Q
2
200
9Q
4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch as of November 2014
Source: Pew analysis of U.S. Census Bureau’s quarterly tax revenue data, as adjusted by the Rockefeller Institute of Government
Tax Collections in 2014Q2 vs. Each State’s Peak* Real tax revenue still lower in 29 states since recession
*Adjusted for inflation
Industrial Production January 2001 through December 2014
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan
-01
Jun
-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-0
2
Sep
-02
Feb
-03
Jul-
03
Dec
-03
May
-04
Oct
-04
Mar
-05
Au
g-0
5
Jan
-06
Jun
-06
No
v-0
6
Ap
r-0
7
Sep
-07
Feb
-08
Jul-
08
Dec
-08
May
-09
Oct
-09
Mar
-10
Au
g-1
0
Jan
-11
Jun
-11
No
v-11
Ap
r-12
Sep
-12
Feb
-13
Jul-
13
Dec
-13
May
-14
Oct
-14
Ind
ex
(20
07
= 1
00
)
(Base year: 2007)
Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q4*
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%19
90
Q1
199
0Q
419
91Q
319
92Q
219
93Q
119
93Q
419
94
Q3
199
5Q2
199
6Q
119
96
Q4
199
7Q3
199
8Q
219
99
Q1
199
9Q
420
00
Q3
200
1Q2
200
2Q1
200
2Q4
200
3Q3
200
4Q
220
05Q
120
05Q
420
06
Q3
200
7Q2
200
8Q
120
08
Q4
200
9Q
320
10Q
220
11Q
120
11Q
420
12Q
320
13Q
220
14Q
120
14Q
4
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
fro
m P
rece
din
g P
eri
od
(S
AA
R)
2014Q4: +2.6%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
*Advance (1st) estimate
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q4 – 2014Q4*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
PersonalConsumption
GovernmentSpending
Net Exports Gross Investment
2.5
-0.7
1.1
0.6 0.8
-0.2
-1.7
-1.1
1.8
0.3
-0.3
2.9
2.21
0.80 0.78
1.18
2.87
-0.40
-1.02
1.20
SA
AR
(%
)
Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14
*Advance (1st) estimate
Invasion of the Body Snatchers
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600Ja
n-0
2
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Th
ou
san
ds
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
January 2015: +257K
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through January 2015
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector January 2014 v. January 2015
36
47
78
80
159
228
308
482
509
565
715
0 200 400 600 800
Mining and Logging
Information
Other Services
Government
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 3,207K Jobs gained
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
9.2
10.4
9.9
10.6 10.4
8.8
9.7 9.6
To
tal
Act
ive
Sk
iers
/Sn
ow
bo
ard
ers
(mil
lio
n)
Number of Active Skiers & Snowboarders in U.S. 2006/2007 Season through 2013/2014 Season
Source: National Ski Areas Association
6.0
16.0
26.0
36.0
46.0
56.0
66.0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
11.8 14.3 13.7 13.4 13.9 11.0 13.3 13.4 4.9
5.2 5.7 6.0 5.8 4.4
5.2 5.8 7.2
8.1 7.2 7.7 7.8
6.4 7.3 7.7
20.8 21.3 20.0 20.4 20.9
19.1 19.8 21.1
10.3
11.6 10.7 12.3 12.2
10.0
11.3 8.5
To
tal
Sn
ow
sp
ort
s V
isit
s (m
illi
on
)
Northeast Southwest Midwest Rocky Mountain Pacific West
Snow Sports Visits 2006/2007 Season through 2013/2014 Season
Source: National Ski Areas Association
Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Absolute Change
500
600
700
1,700
2,000
4,600
5,800
6,200
6,700
10,100
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Other Services
Information
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Government
Construciton
UT Total:
+50.3K; +3.9%
US Total (SA):
+2,952K; +2.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
100
400
900
1,500
1,900
2,600
3,000
3,300
3,700
3,700
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Other Services
Information
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Government
Salt Lake City MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Absolute Change
Salt Lake City MSA
Total: +21.1K; +3.1%
UT Total (SA):
+50.3K; +3.9%
US Total (SA):
+2,952K; +2.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 2.1%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NORTH DAKOTA 5.4 18 ARKANSAS 1.9 35 MINNESOTA 1.2
2 TEXAS 4.0 18 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.9 35 NEW YORK 1.2
3 UTAH 3.9 18 WISCONSIN 1.9 35 OHIO 1.2
4 FLORIDA 3.0 21 KENTUCKY 1.8 38 IOWA 1.1
4 OREGON 3.0 21 MASSACHUSETTS 1.8 38 MICHIGAN 1.1
6 NORTH CAROLINA 2.8 23 ALABAMA 1.6 40 WEST VIRGINIA 1.0
7 DELAWARE 2.7 23 CONNECTICUT 1.6 41 ILLINOIS 0.9
7 GEORGIA 2.7 23 MISSOURI 1.6 41 KANSAS 0.9
7 WASHINGTON 2.7 23 MONTANA 1.6 41 PENNSYLVANIA 0.9
10 COLORADO 2.6 23 NEW MEXICO 1.6 44 MAINE 0.8
11 ARIZONA 2.5 23 RHODE ISLAND 1.6 44 MARYLAND 0.8
12 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.4 29 IDAHO 1.5 44 NEBRASKA 0.8
12 TENNESSEE 2.4 29 LOUISIANA 1.5 44 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.8
14 NEVADA 2.3 31 HAWAII 1.4 44 VIRGINIA 0.8
15 OKLAHOMA 2.2 31 WYOMING 1.4 49 NEW JERSEY 0.7
16 CALIFORNIA 2.1 33 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.3 50 ALASKA 0.6
17 INDIANA 2.0 33 VERMONT 1.3 51 MISSISSIPPI 0.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 5.6%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2014 RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.8 17 PENNSYLVANIA 4.8 35 ILLINOIS 6.2
2 NEBRASKA 2.9 17 VIRGINIA 4.8 35 NEW JERSEY 6.2
3 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.3 20 WISCONSIN 5.2 37 ALASKA 6.3
4 UTAH 3.5 21 DELAWARE 5.4 37 MICHIGAN 6.3
5 MINNESOTA 3.6 21 MISSOURI 5.4 37 WASHINGTON 6.3
6 IDAHO 3.7 23 MAINE 5.5 40 CONNECTICUT 6.4
7 COLORADO 4.0 23 MARYLAND 5.5 41 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.5
7 HAWAII 4.0 23 MASSACHUSETTS 5.5 42 TENNESSEE 6.6
7 NEW HAMPSHIRE 4.0 23 NORTH CAROLINA 5.5 43 ARIZONA 6.7
10 IOWA 4.1 27 FLORIDA 5.6 43 LOUISIANA 6.7
11 KANSAS 4.2 28 ALABAMA 5.7 43 OREGON 6.7
11 MONTANA 4.2 28 ARKANSAS 5.7 46 NEVADA 6.8
11 OKLAHOMA 4.2 28 KENTUCKY 5.7 46 RHODE ISLAND 6.8
11 VERMONT 4.2 31 INDIANA 5.8 48 GEORGIA 6.9
11 WYOMING 4.2 31 NEW YORK 5.8 49 CALIFORNIA 7.0
16 TEXAS 4.6 33 WEST VIRGINIA 6.0 50 MISSISSIPPI 7.2
17 OHIO 4.8 34 NEW MEXICO 6.1 51 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) December 2014
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.3 10
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5
2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 12
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6
3 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 12
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6
4 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 4.3 12
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6
5 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.4 12
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6
6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 12
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6
7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.8 17
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4
8 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.0 18
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7
9 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.2 18
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7
10 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 20 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Salt Lake City MSA Unemployment Rate: 3.0%
Nightmare on Elm Street
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through February 2015*
Source: Freddie Mac
2.92%
3.59%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Feb
-95
Sep
-95
Ap
r-9
6
No
v-9
6
Jun
-97
Jan
-98
Au
g-9
8
Mar
-99
Oct
-99
May
-00
Dec
-00
Jul-
01
Feb
-02
Sep
-02
Ap
r-0
3
No
v-0
3
Jun
-04
Jan
-05
Au
g-0
5
Mar
-06
Oct
-06
May
-07
Dec
-07
Jul-
08
Feb
-09
Sep
-09
Ap
r-10
No
v-10
Jun
-11
Jan
-12
Au
g-1
2
Mar
-13
Oct
-13
May
-14
Dec
-14
Rat
e
15-yr 30-yr
*Week ending 2/5/2015
U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through December 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
December 2014 481K
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR
U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through December 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan
-99
Jun
-99
No
v-9
9
Ap
r-0
0
Sep
-00
Feb
-01
Jul-
01
Dec
-01
May
-02
Oct
-02
Mar
-03
Au
g-0
3
Jan
-04
Jun
-04
No
v-0
4
Ap
r-0
5
Sep
-05
Feb
-06
Jul-
06
Dec
-06
May
-07
Oct
-07
Mar
-08
Au
g-0
8
Jan
-09
Jun
-09
No
v-0
9
Ap
r-10
Sep
-10
Feb
-11
Jul-
11
Dec
-11
May
-12
Oct
-12
Mar
-13
Au
g-1
3
Jan
-14
Jun
-14
No
v-14
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR
1 Unit 5 units or more
December 2014: 1 Unit: 728K 5 Units or more: 339K
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Homeownership
2014 Q4: 63.9%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%Q
4-1
98
0Q
4-1
98
1Q
4-1
98
2Q
4-1
98
3Q
4-1
98
4Q
4-1
98
5Q
4-1
98
6Q
4-1
98
7Q
4-1
98
8Q
4-1
98
9Q
4-1
99
0Q
4-1
99
1Q
4-1
99
2Q
4-1
99
3Q
4-1
99
4Q
4-1
99
5Q
4-1
99
6Q
4-1
99
7Q
4-1
99
8Q
4-1
99
9Q
4-2
00
0Q
4-2
00
1Q
4-2
00
2Q
4-2
00
3Q
4-2
00
4Q
4-2
00
5Q
4-2
00
6Q
4-2
00
7Q
4-2
00
8Q
4-2
00
9Q
4-2
010
Q4
-20
11Q
4-2
012
Q4
-20
13Q
4-2
014
U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through December 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan
-99
Jun
-99
No
v-9
9
Ap
r-0
0
Sep
-00
Feb
-01
Jul-
01
Dec
-01
May
-02
Oct
-02
Mar
-03
Au
g-0
3
Jan
-04
Jun
-04
No
v-0
4
Ap
r-0
5
Sep
-05
Feb
-06
Jul-
06
Dec
-06
May
-07
Oct
-07
Mar
-08
Au
g-0
8
Jan
-09
Jun
-09
No
v-0
9
Ap
r-10
Sep
-10
Feb
-11
Jul-
11
Dec
-11
May
-12
Oct
-12
Mar
-13
Au
g-1
3
Jan
-14
Jun
-14
No
v-14
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR
1 Unit 5 units or more
December 2014: 1 Unit: 667K 5 Units or more: 338K
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1.5% 1.8% 2.0%
2.6%
4.0% 4.3%
4.9% 5.1%
7.5% 7.7% 7.7%
8.6% 8.9%
12-M
on
th %
Ch
ange
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros November 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
23,109 23,190
24,554
27,491
31,662 31,405 (units)
Home sales, Year-to-date thorugh Q3
Utah Housing Statistics Year-to-date through 3rd Quarter, 2006 – 2014
Source: Utah Association of Realtors
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$200,000
$192,000
$174,000
$179,000
$205,000
$213,000
Median price, Year-to-date thorugh Q3
Psycho
January-15 102.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
200
520
07
Feb
-08
Ap
r-0
8Ju
n-0
8A
ug
-08
Oct
-08
Dec
-08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-0
9Ju
n-0
9A
ug
-09
Oct
-09
Dec
-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0O
ct-1
0D
ec-1
0F
eb-1
1A
pr-
11Ju
n-1
1A
ug
-11
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2O
ct-1
2D
ec-1
2F
eb-1
3A
pr-
13Ju
n-1
3A
ug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
Ap
r-14
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4O
ct-1
4D
ec-1
4
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 – January 2015
Source: Conference Board
-14.2%
0.9%
1.4%
2.4%
3.8%
4.8%
5.1%
5.2%
5.8%
6.1%
6.8%
8.2%
8.6%
-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Gasoline Stations
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
General Merchandise Stores
Food & Beverage Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Internet, etc. Retailers
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
12-month % change
Sales Growth by Type of Business December 2013 v. December 2014*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
*December 2014 advanced estimate
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through December 2014
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%A
ug
-07
No
v-0
7
Feb
-08
May
-08
Au
g-0
8
No
v-0
8
Feb
-09
May
-09
Au
g-0
9
No
v-0
9
Feb
-10
May
-10
Au
g-1
0
No
v-10
Feb
-11
May
-11
Au
g-1
1
No
v-11
Feb
-12
May
-12
Au
g-1
2
No
v-12
Feb
-13
May
-13
Au
g-1
3
No
v-13
Feb
-14
May
-14
Au
g-1
4
No
v-14
On
e-m
on
th P
erc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
December 2014 = 121.1 where 2010 = 100
Tell-Tale Heart
• Economy gained momentum over the course of last year;
• Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos;
• The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy – that helps;
• The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
• Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons (more people benefit from lower oil price than are hurt); and
• Outlook for Utah, tourism, and the U.S. is positive for 2015, just watch for trees.
Thank You
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