The Politics of Hunger

Hor'v lllusiot.r and Greed Fan tl.re Foocl Crisis

Pawl Collier

Arrrn ^,lANlr yeers of stabil it l ' , world food prices lrave jumped83 pei:cent slnce 2oo5 plomptint warnings oliafood crisis throughoutmucb ofthe world earljcl this vcar. In thc United Statcs :rnd li)ur.opc,thc increasc in food priccs is trlreacly ycstcrd.ay's ncws; consrurcrs in thcdcvelopcd worlcL now h:rve rnor:c plcssing con ccrn s, srLch as thc r is ilgpliccofcnelgy and thc lrl l ins price ofhouses. 13rLt in the clcvclopioaworld, a firod shock of this mrq-nitudc is a major polit ical o'cnt. ' l irthc typical horLschold in pool ctiuntl ics, l irod is thc cquivllcnt ofcncrgy in tlrc LLritcrl Strtcs, lncl pcoplc cxpcct thcjr tovcrnmcnt todo soncthirrg r,vhcn priccs r-isc. Alrcady, thcr.c hlvc bccn lixrcl riots insornc jo countlics; in I Iliti, thcv brought clrwr t1rc pr irlc ministcr.. Anclfor somc consnmcts in thc wor lcl'.s p<>or:cst corurtr ics, thc trrrc rnguish ofhigh iirod priccs is onlyjust bcsin nillr. Ifglobal food priccs r-cmrin high,the conscqrcnccs will bc grirr both cthically end po1itica11y.

Politicians and policytukets do, in fact, havc it in thcir porvcl tobring food prices clowl. But so far, their.rcsponscs havc bccr.r less tharencouragrr-rg: beggar-thy ncighbof restrictions, pressurc for yctlargcrfirm subsidics,:rnd a r-e ftc.nt into fonanticism.In tlic first case, ncigl.rborshave bcen bcggaled by t1.re imposition ofexport restrjctions bythe governmcnts olIbod cxporting countries.This l.ras had thc immaculatcly

P.rur Cor-r .rrn is Prof-cssor ofEconomics md Directo off ie CentcLtor the SnrdyoliAfi ican Economies at OrJbrd lJnncrsiryand thc authorot'fhe Bartont 1)i1/in; Wh1 ttu Plltlst Ca ntt;.\,4t. Fdi/ittg ontt What CanBe Dorc Abaut Il.

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lez l

Paul Collier

dysfunctional consequence of further elevating world prices whilereducing the incentives for the key produce{s to invest in the agdculturalsector In the second case, the subsidy hunters have, unsurprisingly,turned the crisis into an opportunity;fbr example, Michel BarnieS theFrench agricultural minister, tookit as a chance to urge the EuropeanCommission to reverse its incipient subsidy slashing reforms of theCommon Agricultural Policy And finally, the romantics have pofirayedthe food crisis as demonstrating the failure of scientific commercialagriculture, which they have long found distasteful. In its placethey advocate thc return to organic sma11-sca1e farming-countingon abandoned technologies to feed a prospective world populationof nine billion.

The real challenge is not the technical diiiculty of returningthe world to cheap foodbut the political difficulty ofconfionting thclobbying interests and illusions on which curent policies rest. Feedingthe world will involve three politically challcnging steps. First, conharyto the romantics, the world needs more commercial agriculture, notless.Thc Brazilian model of high-productivity large farms could readilybe extended to areas where land is underused. Second, and again con-trary to the romantics, the world needs more science: the Europeanban and the consequential African ban on genetically modified (crr)crops arrc slowing the pace of agricultural productivity growth in theface ofaccelerating growth in demand. Ending such restrictions couldbc part of a deal, a mutual de-escalation of folly, that would achievethe third step: in return for Europe's lifting its self damaging ban oncM products, the United States should lift its se)f-damaging subsidiessupporting domestic biofuel.

S U P P L Y S I D D S O L U T I O N S

TyprcALLy, in trying to find a solution to a problem, people look toits causes-or, yct more fatuously, to its "root" cause. But there need beno logical connection between the cause ofa problem and appropriateor evenjust feasible solutions to it. Such is the case with the food crisis.The root cause ofhigh foodprices is the spectacular economicgrowthofAsia. Asia accounts for halfthe worldt population, andbecause itspeople are still poor, they devote much of their budgets to food. As

f68 l FoRErcN AFFATRS t /akne87Na.6

Asianincorare Asians ebeing replato producefurther drir

The tu'cand pricegenerally arthe demancfor food is <do not eat toffood rverpercent aftito double.drive pricei

In recenincreasingsupply shoshocks ryilithat accomrelentlesslr'

Becausefood price:means are 2Most poormay bul aare often ndetached hinto globalfor farmersmost of tietheir cropssupplier oflthan bushethen, the l,Jacutely r''uJprices are g

The Politit of Hwtger

Asian incomcs r-ise, tl.reworld demand for food increases. And not onlyareAsians eating more,but they are also eatingbettet: carbohydrates arebeing replaced byprotein. And bccause it takes six kilograrr-rs ofgrainto produce one kilogram of beel the switch to a protein heaw dietfurther drives up demand for grain.

Tire nvo key paramcters in shaping demand are incomc clasticiq'and price elasticity. Tl.re income clasticity of demand for food isgenerally around o.5, meaning that ifincome rises by, sa1', zo percentrtl.re demand for fbod riscs byro percent. (Theprice elasticiq.ofdcmandfor food is on Ly around o.r: that is, pcople simply havc to cat, and theydo not eat much less in rcsponse to hlgher prices.)Thus, ifthe supplyoffood werc 1ircd, in order to chokc offan increasc in demand ofroperccnt aftcr a zo perccnt rise in income, the pricc offood rvould nccdto double. In othcr words, n:rodcst incrclses in global income r,vil1drive priccs up alarmingly unlcss m:rtched by incrcascs in supply.

ln rcccnt years, thc increise in clemand rcsulting fiom graduallyincrcasing inconcs in Asia has ir-rstcad bccn matchcd with severllsupply shocks, such ls thc prolonscd clrought in Australir. l-hcscshocl<s wil l only bccomc norc cornmon with thc climttic voleti l i tytbat 11ccor-npNltics clinntc chxngc. Accordingly, atrLinst a backdrop ofrclcntlcssly rising clcmancl, supply w.Lll l l irctuatc norc sh^r f l), lrs rvcll.

l lccarsc l iro<l loorns so hrgc in thc bucltcts oftlrc prnr, hi2h wor-l<li irocl priccs havc r scvcrcly rcsrcssivc cl1tct ir thcir toll. Sti l l , by nomcels ar c ull ofthc lvorlci's poor lclvcrscly allcctccl by crpensivc fixrd.' V l , ' . r p L , u " l , ' , r r ' l , w l r u . r r ' , 1 : r r , r L r . r r r r ' 1 , ' r 1 . , l r . c i - . r f f i , i , r r . T r c )may buy ucl scll ioocl, but thc rural marl<ets in which tlrcy tradcare oftcn not well intcgrltcd into global markcts rrnd so arc largelycletachcd fi:orn thc surpie in prices. Whcrc poor. fiu-mcrs arc integrutcdinto 91oba1 markets, thcy arc likcly to bemefit. But cvcn the goocl ncwsfbr far mcrs nceds to bc qudified. AJthough mostpoor firmcrs will grinmost ofthe time, thcy will lose prtciselywhen they are hardcst hit:rvhentheir crops fail. The World Food Prog-ram is designed to act as thcsupplier oflast rcsort to such localities.Yetits budget, setin dollrrs ratherthan bushels, buys much less when lood prices surge. Paradoxically,then, the world's insurance program against localized lamine is itselfacutely r'ulnerable to global food shortages. Thus, high global foodprices arc good news for farmers but only in good times.

F O R t I C N A l l q l R \ \ , . / . r ' ' o . c o ) .

Paul Callier

The unambiguous loscrs when it comes to high food prices are theurban poor. Most ofthe developing world's large cities are ports, and,barring government controls, the price oftheir food is set on the globalmarket. Crowded in slums, the urban poor clnnot grow theh own

food;theyhave no choice but to buy it. Being

Peasants, li1<e pandas,show little inclinationto reproduce themselves.

poor, theywould inevitablybe squeezed by anincrease in prices, but by a cruel implicationofthe laws ofnecessity, poor people spend afa-r larger proportion oftheir budgets on food,qpically around a hall in contrast to only

around a tenth for high income groups. (Hungry slum dwellers areunlikely to accept their fate quietJy. For centuries, sudden hunger inslums has provoked the same response: riots. This is the classic politicalbase {br populist poiitics, sucl.r as Peronism inArgentina, and the foodcrisis may provoke its ugly resurgence.)

At the end of the food chain comcs the real crunch: amons theurbrn p,oor , thosc most1 i l<e ly rogo hrLngr l r rcch i ldrcr r . l l loungih i l -dren remain malnourished for more than two yea$, the consequence isstunte d growh and stunted groMh is not merely a physical condition.Stunted people are notjust shorter than they would have been; theirmental potential is impaired as well. Stunted growth is irreversible.It lasts a lifetime, and indeed, some studies find that it is passed downthrough the generations. And so although high food prices are yester-day's news in most ofthe developed world, if theyremain high for thenext few yeat.s, their consequcnces will be tomorrowt nightmare forthe developing world.

L.r short, global food priccs must be brought down, and theymust be brought down fast, because their adverse consequences areso persistcnt. The question is how. There is nothing to be done aboutthe root cause of the crisis-the increasins dcmand for food. Theqolution mu"r iome from drlmaticalll increasing world tood.upply.That supply has been growing for decades, more than keeping up withpopulation growth, but it now must be accelerated, with productionincreasing much more rapidly than it has in recent decades.This musthappen in the short term, to bring prices down from today's levels,and in thc medium and long terms, since any immediate increase insupplywill soon be overtaken by increased demand. B Brookings

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The Politiu of Hunger

Fortunately, policymakers have the power to do all of this; bychanging regulation, they can quicldy generate an increase in supplylby encouraging organizational changes, they can raise the growth ofproduction in the medium terml and by encouraging innovationsin technology, they can sustain this higher growth indefinitely. Butcurently, each ofthese steps is blocked by a giant ofromantic populism:all three must be confronted and slain.

T H E I I R S T G I A N T O F R O M A N T I C P O P U L I S M

Tnn rlnsr giant that must be slain is the middle- and upper-classlove affair with peasant agriculture. With the near-total urbanizationofthese classes in both the United States and Europe, rural simplicityhas acquired a strange allure. Peasant life is prized as organic in bothits literal and its metaphoric sense. (Prince Charles is one ofits lea&ngaposdes.) In its literal sense, organic agricultural production is now apremium product, a luxury brand. (Indeed, Prince Charles has his ownsuch brand, Duchy Originals.) In its metaphodc sense, it representsthe antithesis of the large, hierarchical, pressured organizations inwhich the middle classes nowwork. (Prince Charles has built a modelpeasant village, in traditional architectural style.) Peasants, like pandas,aIe to De Preselvecl.

But distressingly, peasants,like pandas, show little inclination toreproduce tlemselves. Given the chance, peasants seek local wagejobs,and their offspring head to the cities. This is because at low-incomelevels, rural bliss is precarious, isolated, and tedious. The peasant lifeforces millions ofordinary people into the role ofentrepreneur, a rolefor which most are ill suited. In successfr economies, entrepreneurshipis a minority pursuit; most people opt for wage employment so thatothers can have the worry and grind ofrunning a business. Arld reluctantpeasants are right their mode ofproduction is i11 suited to modernagdcultural production, in which scale is helpfirl. In modern agriculture,technology is fast-evolving, investment is lumpy, the private provisionoftransportation infrastructure is necessary to counter the lack ofitspublic provision, consumer food fashions are fast changing and bestmet by integrated marketing chains, and regulatory standards are risingtoward the holy grail ofthe traceability ofproduce back to its source.

IOREIGN AFFAIF.I Naututel Deenber zoos [ fr l

Pa Collier

Far from being the answer to global poverty, organic self suficiencyis a lu-r-ury Jifestyle.It is appropriate for burlrt-out ir.rvestment bankers,not for hungry families.

Large organizations are better suited to cope with investment,marketing chains, and regulation. Yet foryears, global developmentagencies have been leery of commercial agriculture, basir.rg theiragricultural strategies instead on raising peasant production. Thisneglect is all thc more striking given the standard account ofhoweconomic development started in Europe: the English enclosuremovement, which was enabled by legislative changes, is commonlysupposcd to have launched development by permitting large farmsthat could achieve higher productiviry Although current researchqualifies the conventional account, reducing the estimates of productivity gains to the range ofro-zo percent, to ignore commercialagriculture as a force for rural development and enhanced food supplyis surely ideological.

Inr.rovation, especially, is hard to generate through peasantfarming.Innovators create benefits for the local cconomy, and to the extentthat these benefits are not fiilly capturcd by the innovators, innovationwillbe too slow. Large organizations can internalize the effects thatin peasant agriculture a::e localized externalities-that is, benefits ofactions that arc not reflected in costs orprofits-:rnd so not adequatelytaken into account in decision making.In the European agriculturalrevolutiolr, innovations occurred on small farms as well as large,and today manypeasant farmers, especiallythose who are better oifandbetter educatcd, are keen to innovate. But agricultural innovation ishighiy sensitive to local conditions, especially in Africa, where thesoils are complex and variablc. One solution is to have an extensivcnetworh ofoubliclv funded research stations with advisers who reach

4 . .out ro .mal l tarmcr . . l ju t in At r ica. rh i " model ha ' Iarge ly bro lcendown, an instance of more widespread malfur.rctioning of the publicsector.In eighteenth-century Great Britain, the innovations in small-holder agr iculturc were often led by network among the gentry whocorrespolrded with one another on the consequences of agriculturalexperimcntation. But such processes are far ftom automatic (they did notoccur, for example, in continental Europe). Commercial agricultureis the best way of making innovation quicker and easier.

Over time, -lbehind the adron Present fue!over the nelieven with pricare, the Unitedture Organizatpeasants are ribecause thel icost of ferti l izsolutions to su;land credit sche:agriculture sic:r ; < F h - - ^ . . . -

A model o:the world in -agricultural ictcan be mass-::between harr-r:for land-has :criticized the Brain forest, s'[,:has gone unre_lprimal forest i:model is that i:"out growing.-central businesstimes this can :

There are rnrbe used far moreIndeed, large comanage those I;have worked toof the matter issourcc ofthis rein Africa's cities.has been litde ir

lzrl FOREIGN AFFAIRS l /o lunc 37 Na.6 I O

The Politis of Hunger

Over time, African peasant agriculture has fallen further and fiutherbehind the advancing commercial productivity frontier, and basedon present trends, the regiont food imports are projected to doubleov€r the next quarter century. Indeed,even with prices as high as they currentlyare, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization is worried that African

The romantic hostilityto scientific and

peasants are likely to reduce production Commefcial aEriculturebecause thel cannor cfford the increased . , :co,t orlertiiizer inpurs. There are parrial must be cotlntered'solutions to such problems through subsidiesand credit schemes, but it should be noted that larqe-scale commercialagriculture simply does not face this particular problem: i foutput pricesrise by more than input prices, production will be expanded.

A model of successful commercial agriculture is, indeed, staringthe world in the face. In Braztl,latge, technologically sophisticatedagricultural companies have demonstrated how successfully foodcan be mass-produced. To give one remarkable example, the timebetween harvesting one crop and planting the next-the downtimefor land-has been reduced to an astounding 3o minutes. Some havecriticized the Brazilian model for displacing peoples and destroyingrain forest, which has indeed happened in places where commercialismhas gone unregulated. But in much ofthe poor world, the land is notprimal forest; it isjust badly farmed. Another benefit ofthe Brazilianmodel is that it can bring innoyation to small farmers as well. In the'but-growing," or "contract farming," model, small farmers supply acentra.l business. Depending on the details ofcrop production, some-times this can be more eficient than wage employment.

There are many areas ofthe world that have good land that couldbe used far more productively ifproperly managed by large companies.Indeed, large companies, some ofthem Brazilian, are queuing up tomanage those lands. Yet over the past 4o years, African governmentshave worked to scale back large commercial agriculture. At the heartofthe matter is a reluctance to let land rishts be marketable. and thesource ofLhi. relucrance is probabJy the lick of economic dynamismin Africat cities. As a result, land is still the a.ll-important asset (thereha. been lirLle investmenr in others). In more suicessful economie.,

FoRrrcN I .FFATr.I . Natuehber/De,entt ,oa8 lZSl

Paul Collier

land has become a minor asseq and thus the rights ofolvnership, akhoughinitially assigned based on poJitical considerations, are simply errtensionsofthe rights over other assets; as a result, they can be acquired commer-cially. A further consequence ofalack ofurban dynamism is thatjobsare scarce, and so the prospect ofmass landlessness evokes poJitical fears:the poor are safer on the land, where they are less able to cause trouble.

Commercial agriculture is not perfect. Global agribusiness isprobably overly concentrated, and a sudden switch to an unregulatedland market would probably have ugly consequences. But allowingcommercial organizations to replace peasant agriculture graduallywould raise global food supply in the medium term.

T H E W A R O N S C I E N C E

Tus socoNo giant of.romantic populism is the .LuroPean Jea! otscientific agriculture. This has been manipulated by the agricultr"rral

of.romantic populism is the European of{eat

lobby in Europe into yet anotller form of protectionism: the ban oncu crops. Gnr crops were introduced globally in 1996 and already aregrown on around ten percent ofthe world's crop area, some 3oo millionacles. But due to the ban, virtually none ofthis is in Europe orAfrica.

Robert Paarlberg, of Wellesley College, brilliantly anatomizes thepolitics ofthe ban in his new book, Startedfor Srienre. After theircreation, cr,r foods, already so disastrously named, were described as"Frankenfoods"-sounding like a scientific experiment on consumers.

Just as problematic was the fact that genetic modification had grownout ofresearch conducted byAmerican corporations and so Provokedpredictable and deep-seated hostjlityfrom the European left. A-lthoughMonsanto, the main innovator in cM-seed tcchnology, has undertakennever to market a seed that is incapable ofreproducing itself, skepticspropagated a widespread beliefthat farmem will be taPPed into annurlpurcl.rases of"terminator" seeds from a monopoly supplier.Thus werelaid the political foundations for awinning coalition: onto the base ofnational agricultural protectionism was added the anti-Americanismof the left and the paranoia of health-conscious consumers who, inthe wake ofthe mad cow disease outbreak in the United Kingdom inthe r99os, no longcr trusted their governments' assurances, In therz years since the ban was introduced, in 1996, the scientific case for

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liftingithas btion against (

The cu-ahas retarded pgrain yields1996, they haproduction olifted. Europrsubtly, becauspace ofresearto come to fifood prices, ca strong caseEuropean goresearch is etmoney for reban has also r

Hower'er.that it has tercrops, tlle o!]chose to groEuropean rncrops, there llthat Africa slcritique that

Africa carpossibly getAfrican agricduction has twith Africa'-.out, especiall;in the cominwill get &ier.ing to more dfood, maize,regions the ccarbon emiss

The Politis afHunger

lifting it has becomc progressively more robust, but the political coalition against cM foods has only expanded.

Thc c ' r c rop ban l re . h "d h rcc rdvc- -e edecr . . Mo. t . ,bv io . r .h . i rhas tetarded productivity growth ir European agdculturc. Prior to 1996,grain vields in Europc trackcd those in the United States. Sincc1996, they havc fallen behind by r-2 percent a ycar. European grainproduction coulcl be increased by around 15 percent were the banli lted. Europe is a major ccrcal producer, so this is a large loss. Morcsubtly,bccausc Europe is out ofthe market for crur-crop technoloqt thepacc ofreseuch has slowed. Gu-crop rcscarch takes a r.ery long tirneto come to fiuition, and its core bene6t, the pennanent rcduction infood prices, crnnot lul1y bc capturcd throueh p:rtents. FIence, thclc isa stlong cllsc for: supplementins privrte rescarch with public moncy.Europcan gover-nmcnts shoulcl bc lunding this rcse:rrch, but instcldresearch is cntilclv rcliant on thc private scctor. And sincc privltcmorrcy lbr rcscarcli depends ol thc prospcct ofselcs, thc Europcanban has also r-cclucctl privttc rcscarr:h.

IIowcvcr, thc rvorst conscqucncc ofthe Duropcln cl,t-crop ban isthrrt it l l . ls tcrr.if icd Air-icarr eovcrrlrrcnts info thcrnsclvcs betlnitrg crvrcrops, thc only cx<r:ption bcins South -Afr-ic.r. Tlrcy fc,Lr that if thcryc l rosc to g ror r cM crops) thcy wou l t l bc pcrnruncDt ly s l r t r t ou t o fl irrrrpcan nrarkcts. Norv, bcceusc rrost of Africa has barrncrl clrcl14)s, thclc hrrs l)ccn no rlarl<ct l irr cl iscovcrics lcrtincnt to thc cl1)psth:rt Ali ior gnrws, lncl so l-Lttlc rcsc,rrch which in tulr hns lcd to thccr it lqLlc thlt cNr crops ur c ir r clcvent fb: Afl icrL.

Afticr crrnnot l l lbri l this sclf clcli ir l; i t nccds rl l thc hclp it c,.rrpossibly get 1'rorn gcrctic nrodification. For thc pmt tbnr dcclclcs,Aiiicen agticulttLrtl procltrctivitv pcr,rcrc has st:rglirtcd; raising pr-crduction has dcpcndcd on cxpmding the lrca uncler cultivrrtion. Butwith Africat popuhtion sti11 qroldrg rapidly, this optior.r is rrLnningout, cspccially in light ofglobalwarming. Climete lbrecrsts suggest thatin tl.re coming ycars, most of Afr.icr r,vill set hotter', the scmiarid partswill gct dricr, and r:rinfall variabilig. on the continent rvill increase, lead-ingto more ciroughts.It sccrns likcly that in southern A1iica, rhc staplcIbod, maizc, r,vill at some point becomc nonviablc. Wl.rerem fbr otherregions the challcngc of c[mate change is primarilv about mitigrtingcarbon emissions, in Africl it is primar ily about agricultur adaptation.

! 'O R

Paul Collier

It has become commonplace to say that Africa needs a greenrevolution. Unfortunately, the reality is that the green revolution inthe t$/entieth century was based on chemical fertilizers, and evenwhen fertilizer was cheap, Africa did not adopt it. With the rise infertilizer costs, as a blproduct ofhigh-energyprices, any African greenrevolution will perforce not be chemical. To counter the efects ofAfiicat rising population and deteriorating climate, African agricultureneeds a biological revolution. This is what cM crops offer, if onlysuficient money is put into research.There has as yet been little work

on the crops ofkeyimportance to the region,such as cassava and yams. Gl,r_crop researchis stil1 in its infancy, still on the first genera-tion: single-gene transfcr. A genc that givesone crop an advantage is identified, isolated,and added to anothercrop. But even this stageolTers the credible prospect ofvital gains. Ina ncw scjentjfic review, Jennifer Thomson,

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NFi\

Thc mark of a goodpoliricixn is rhe rbilityto guide citizens aw21y

frorn populism.

of the Department of Molecular and Ccl1 Biology at the University ofCape Town, considers the potential of cv technology for Africa.Maize, she reports) can be made more drought-resistant, buyingAfrica time in the struggle against climatic deterioration. Grain canbe madc radically more resistant to fungi, reducing thc need forchemicals and cutting lasses due to storagc. For example, stem borerbeetles cause storage losses in the range of 15 4o pcrcent of the\ f r ic ln maizc crop; x ncw c\a \ ar icq j< 'cs is tanL.

It is important to recognize that genetic modification,like commer-cialization, is not a magic fi-r for African agriculhrre: there is no such6x. But without it, the task of keeping Africa's food productionabrcast of its population growth looks daunting. Although Africa'scoastal cities can l:e fed from global supplies, the vast African interiorcannot be fed in this way other than in emergencies. Lifting the banon cM crops, both in Aiica and in Europe, is the policy that couldhold down global food prices in the long term.

The final giant of romalrtic populism is the American fantasy thatthe United States can escape dependence on Arab oil by growing itsown fuel-making ethanol or other biofuels, largely from corn. There isa good case for growing fuel. But there is not a good case for generating

l t 6 l IOREIGN AFTAIRS lo lune 87 No 6

FORDIGN A! l 'AI RS N,iar,1,rr , / Denriet ,aou l f l l

The Po/itis ofHunger

it from American grain: the convcrsion of grain into ethanol usesalmost as much encrgv as it produces. This has not stoppcd theAmerican agricultural lobbylrom gouging out grotcsquely inelicientsubsidies fiom the govcrnmcnt; as a result, uound a third ofAmcricangrain has rapidlybeen diverted into energv.This switch demonstratesboth the superb responsivcncss ofthe market to price sigrals and thcshameful power of subsidy-huntirg lobbfng groups. If the UnitedStatcs wxnts to mn offofagrofucl instcad ofoil, then Bruzilirn sugar'cene is the answcr; it is :r fir more elllcient source of cncrgy thanAmcrican grain.The ki11er evicler.rce ofpoLitical capturc is the response ofthc U.S. govenment to this potcntial lifclilie: it has rctullly lestrictcdimports ofBrazilian ethrnol to plotcct Amcrican production. The smeeoal ofr.educing dcpcndcncc on Ar:rb oil has been sacrificcd to thc sclf-scrviu goal ofputrpilg yet rrore tax clollars into Amclicirn agriculture.

Inci'it'lbly, thc hugc loss oi grain for food caused bv its clivcr-siorri r t ' , , r l r : r n u l l ' : ' . l , d , ' r ' i r n l i , . t , , n u u r l , l , r r i l ' , . . . j ' , . , r , , r , r l : r r . ,an imprct is contr-ovcrsi;Ll. An init iul clain-r bytlrc 13rLsh administratiorrwas thrt it hrLcl rriscd priccs by only thrcc l)clccnt, but a strLrly bythc World Bnk srLggcrits thNt thc cllcct lras bccn rnLrch lurycl. If thcsirbsidy wcrc l if iccl, thcrc rvoulcl pr-obrrbly bc u swilt implct on pr iccs:not only rvould thc sufply of grain fbr i ircl i lcrcesc, btrt thc chlngcwoul<l shii i spcorlutivc cxpcctations.

' l 'his is thc irolicy thlt coulcl

bring priccs tlnvn in tltc shr)rt tcrm.

S T R I I ( I N G A I ) ] i A I ,-li

t r r n t l l policics-cxpancling lir-gc com rr crcirl 1irms, crrding thccu crop ban, arcl doilrg ewry with thc U.S. subsidics oD cthrnolfit tos-ethcr both ccononricdly and poiitically. Lifting the ethanolsubsidics woulcl probably prLnctur-c thc prcsent ballooning ofpriccs.Thc crpansion ofconrrnelcial farms could, ovcr thc next decedc, raiseworid output by a further i;w pcrccntage points. Both mcasur.eswor d buy thc tirne needcd for cr,r crops to deliver on their potcntial(the timc betrveen starting rcscarch irnd thc mass application of itsrcsults is around 15 years). Moreover, tl.re expzrnsion of commcrcialfanring in Africa would encouragc globd crl crop research onAliicasuited crops, and innovations would find a reldy markct not so sensitive

Paul Collier

to political interference. It would also facilitate the loca.lized adaptationof new vdieties. It is not by chance that the only African countryin whichIn wtuch GM crops have not been banned 1s bouth Atncaorganization of agriculture is predominantly commercial.

have not been banned is South Africa, wherethe

Political1y, the three policies are also complementary. Homegrownenergy, keeping out "Frankenfoods," and preserving the peasantway of life are all classic populist programs: they sound instantlyappealingbut actually do harm.They mustbe countered by messagesofequal potency.

One such message concerns the scope for international reciprocity.Although Americans are attracted to homegrown fuel, they are infu-riated by the European ban on cl,r crops. They see the ban for whatit is: a standard piece of anti-American protectionism. Europeans, fortheir part, cling to the illusory comfort ofthe ban on high tech crops,but they arc infuriatcd by the American subsidies on ethanol. Theysee the subsidies for what they are: a greedy deflection from the coretask of reducing U.S. energy profligacy. Over the past half century,the United Statcs and Europe have learned how to cooperate. TheGeneral Agleement on triffs and Trade was fundamentally a dealbetween the United States and Europe that virtually eliminated tariffson manufactured goods. N.tro is a partnership in securiry ThcOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development is apartncrship in economic governance. Compared to the difficultiesofreaching agreement in these arcas, the difficulties of reaching adeal on the mutual de-escalation ofrcccnt cnvironmental follies isscarcely daunting: the United States would agree to scrap its ethanolsubsidies in return for Europe's lifting the ban on cvt crops. Each sidecan find this deal infuriating andyet attractive.It should be politicallyfeasible to prescnt this to voters as better than the status quo.

How misht the romantic hostilitv towa-rd commercia.l and scicntificagriculture be countered politically?The answer is to educate the vast .community ofconcern for the poorest countuies on the bitter realitiesofthe food crisis.In both the Ur.rited States and Europe, millions ofdecent citizens are appalled by global hunger Each time a faminemales it to television screens, the popular response is over-whelming andthere is a large overlap between the constituency that responds to suclrcrises and the constituency attracted bythe idca ofprcserving organic

I zs ] FORIIGN AFFAIRS l /o /un.8t No 6

peasant lifeslenged. Marwill decide Ilmportant olconsequenc(come face t<children andfood supplie:but ifit fills

Americatrethinking. Tthrough thethat could saUnited Starrbut grou,inqsimplytoo pthemselves {yet sustain ashifted frorn

The mar]from popu!necded to aland Europe,venience, buCuIIent sftail

citizens rvill rthese messagdown fast anfuture Lives r,small price ri

The Politis of Hunger

peasant lifbstyles. The cohabitation ofthese colrcerns needs to be chal-lenged. Many people will need to agonize over their priorities. Somewill decide that the vision articulated by Prince Charles is the moreimportant one: a historical lifesry1e must be preserved regardless oftheconsequences. But however attractive that vision, these people mustcome fice-t,r-lacc w:th the pru,pecr ofna.s miinutrit ion anJ -runtedchildren and realize that the vital matter for oublic policy is to increaselood .upplies. CommcrciaJ ae-icuJru-e ma1 L,c irrcdee,rlbil unromanric,but if it fills the stomachs ofthe poo5 then it should be cncouraged.

American environmentalists will also need to do some oainfulr elhjn ld I rg. The pcoplc mosr rtr--rcted ro achicving energl .elI-,Gcjencythrough thc production of cthanol are potentially the constituencythat could save the United States from its ruinous energypolicies.TheUnited Statcs indeed needs to rcduce its deoendencc on imported oil.bLr t g rowing corn lo r b io [ r rc l i ' no l rh . an , rncr . Amcr i i r l s r rc qu i rc. i r np l l roo 1 ' 'e f l igx11- whcn i t , t rnc . ro r hc i l u .e o f encr g ) : tu ropcrns .thenselves pretty pro€igate, usc only halfthe energy per capita andyet sustain a high-income lifestyle. The U.S. ta-x system needs to be.h i f rcd f ron L ,u rdcr ing u o r l< to d i .cour , rg i , rg cncr 91 con.uml r ion .

The mark ofa good politiciar.r is tirc ability to gtidc citizens awayfiom populism. Unless countered, populism will block the policiesneeded to address the food crisis. For thc citiz-cns ofthe Unitcd Statcs:rnd Europc, the continuation of l.iigh food prices will be an incor.r-venicnce, but not sumciently so to slay the thlec giants on which thecurrcnt strain of romaotic populism rcsts. Properly informed, manycitizens will rethink thcir pdorities, but politicians will need to deliverthcsc n.ressages and forge new allianccs. Iffood priccs are not broughtdown fast and then kept down, slum children wiJl go hungry, and tl.reirftrturc lives will be impaired. Shattering a few romantic illusions is asmall orice to pay.@

I. .?

FOREIGN AFFAI RS ,^/ ,a.ura,/ Da., tbenaas l fg)