The Portuguese Policy toward the IMFManuel da Fonseca Soares

The Current Situation

The Portuguese Foreign Policy

Agenda

Policy Recommendation

s

The Current Situation at the IMF

• Italian director represents Portugal in the Board of Directors

• Other members:• Albania

• Greece

• Malta

• San Marino

• Timor-Leste (the only non-European)

• Portugal as 2nd largest stakeholder within its group, after Italy

• Lack of cultural, economical and political ties with these

actors. Especially in comparison to other European partners

and Portuguese speaking countries worldwide.

The Current Situation (continued)

Source: The Portuguese National Institute of Statistics

The Portuguese Foreign Policy AgendaPriority #1 – Successful candidacy to the UNSecurity Council for 2011-2012

▫ 2 seats in dispute▫ 2 competitors – Germany and Canada

Portuguese Odds – need for pragmatic evaluation of its limitations

• UNSC elections characterized by a barter system• Portuguese ODA figures dwarf those of Canada and Germany• Canada and Germany both have directors at the IMF Board

• Germany as the 3rd largest stakehodler at the IMF• Canada uses constituency – multilateral commitment mechanism

• Major powers do not reveal their voting orientations

One state, one vote – all votes count. Majority in WEOG + 2/3 of UNGA

The Portuguese Foreign Policy Agenda

• Portugal disburses mere 4.4 % of Germany’s and 12% of Canadian ODA

• Clear steping up of ODA figures ahead of the UNSC election

Source – OECD-DAC – Development Co-Operation Directorate

Policy Options• Free riding the system

▫ Abstention from the developments in the international system▫ Increased susceptibility to crises

• Bridging developing and developed world▫ Portugal as a recently industrialized country▫ Residual bargaining power compared to that of Germany and

Canada

• Proposal for group re-alignment at the IMF▫ Brazil at the top. Portuguese-speaking + members of Brazil’s group▫ Re-enactment of historical linkages with South Atlantic

• Objectives:▫ Foster attitudinal changes about Portugal’s character▫ Solidarity towards calls for IFI reform in the developing world▫ Signaling commitment to the developing world. G77 IS 2/3 of the

UN

All votes count – US vote equals that of Palau