the possibility of a hellenic exit from the eurozone: the plan b
DESCRIPTION
After 2010 and the Greek economic crisis, a major concern of the Eurozone was what will happen with the country’s membership. There were several opinions about what Greece should do; many economists believed that leaving the Euro could lead to the collapse of the whole union in a chain reaction, others however believed that Greece could only be saved if it left the union and tried to achieve external devaluation with its own new national currency. Greece asked for help from the IMF and tried to comply with the austerity measures in order to achieve internal devaluation and finally improve competitiveness. In this dissertation paper I examined several other union breakups in order to draw some lessons; in most cases exiting a union was encouraging for the economies leaving the unions. Furthermore, I ran regression analyses to see how the Greek bond yields, bond spreads and CDS spreads are affected by the situation and also how the borrowing costs of Greece along with the risk of investing in Greek sovereign debt titles is affected by the credit rating of Greece set by the three credit rating agencies. Moreover, after comparing the expectations of the Troika to the real data after the implementation of the Troika’s program I found out that the Troika greatly underestimated the negative impacts of its policies and that after three years of austerity policy, the Hellenic economy was not able to recover. Considering that the only other solution for Hellas, is leaving the Eurozone, I constructed a Plan B, indicating the steps that the Greek government should follow after a Hellexit.TRANSCRIPT
i
THE POSSIBILITY OF A HELLENIC EXIT FROM THE
EUROZONE
The Plan B
ERASMUS UNIVERSITY ROTTERDAM
ERASMUS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
MSc Economics & Business
Master Specialisation Financial Economics
Author: I.A. Athanasiadis
Student number: 365610
Thesis supervisor: Dr. J.J.G. Lemmen
Second reader: Dr. M.P. Bloem
Finish date: October 2013
ii
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank my father who inspired me and helped me choose the topic and my friend
Antonis Theodorakis who supplied me with the data for the regression analyses.
iii
NON-PLAGIARISM STATEMENT
By submitting this thesis the author declares to have written this thesis completely by himself/herself, and not to
have used sources or resources other than the ones mentioned. All sources used, quotes and citations that were
literally taken from publications, or that were in close accordance with the meaning of those publications, are
indicated as such.
COPYRIGHT STATEMENT
The author has copyright of this thesis, but also acknowledges the intellectual copyright of contributions made by
the thesis supervisor, which may include important research ideas and data. Author and thesis supervisor will have
made clear agreements about issues such as confidentiality.
Electronic versions of the thesis are in principle available for inclusion in any EUR thesis database and repository,
such as the Master Thesis Repository of the Erasmus University Rotterdam
iv
ABSTRACT
After 2010 and the Greek economic crisis, a major concern of the Eurozone was what will happen
with the country’s membership. There were several opinions about what Greece should do; many
economists believed that leaving the Euro could lead to the collapse of the whole union in a chain
reaction, others however believed that Greece could only be saved if it left the union and tried to
achieve external devaluation with its own new national currency. Greece asked for help from the
IMF and tried to comply with the austerity measures in order to achieve internal devaluation and
finally improve competitiveness. In this dissertation paper I examined several other union breakups
in order to draw some lessons; in most cases exiting a union was encouraging for the economies
leaving the unions. Furthermore, I ran regression analyses to see how the Greek bond yields, bond
spreads and CDS spreads are affected by the situation and also how the borrowing costs of Greece
along with the risk of investing in Greek sovereign debt titles is affected by the credit rating of
Greece set by the three credit rating agencies. Moreover, after comparing the expectations of the
Troika to the real data after the implementation of the Troika’s program I found out that the Troika
greatly underestimated the negative impacts of its policies and that after three years of austerity
policy, the Hellenic economy was not able to recover. Considering that the only other solution for
Hellas, is leaving the Eurozone, I constructed a Plan B, indicating the steps that the Greek
government should follow after a Hellexit.
Keywords:
European Union, Autarky, Monetary Union, Currency Substitution, ECU, EMU, International Monetary
Fund
JEL classification numbers: G01, E42, F33, F34
Author email address: [email protected]
v
Contents
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................... ii
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. iv
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... vi
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. vii
CHAPTER 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1
CHAPTER 2 Literature review ................................................................................................. 3
CHAPTER 3 Historical Parallels .............................................................................................. 8
3.1 Austro-Hungarian Empire ................................................................................................... 8
3.1.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire ................. 12
3.2 Czechoslovakia (1993) ...................................................................................................... 12
3.2.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia ....................................... 14
3.3 The Soviet Union ............................................................................................................... 14
3.3.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Breakup of the Ruble-zone ........................................ 17
3.4 United States of America 1930s ........................................................................................ 18
3.4.1 Lessons to be drawn from the drop of the Golden Standard ...................................... 22
3.5 Argentina 1999-2002 ......................................................................................................... 22
3.5.1 Lessons to be drawn from the drop of the Dollar Peg ................................................ 25
3.6 Icelandic Crisis of 2008 .................................................................................................... 26
3.6.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Icelandic Incident ....................................................... 27
3.7 Meta-summary of historical parallels ............................................................................... 28
CHAPTER 4 The Hellenic Crisis and the Troika ................................................................... 30
4.1 The Hellenic Crisis ............................................................................................................ 30
4.2 Data and Methodology ...................................................................................................... 33
4.3 Results ............................................................................................................................... 37
4.4 Basic Indicators of the Greek Economy ............................................................................ 47
4.5 Will the Troika succeed? ................................................................................................... 50
4.5.1 A mathematical scenario ............................................................................................ 57
4.5.2 How probable is the exit? ........................................................................................... 58
Chapter 5 Plan B ..................................................................................................................... 61
CHAPTER 6 Discussion and Conclusions .............................................................................. 69
REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 72
APPENDIX A DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................... 80
APPENDIX B STATA RESULTS ......................................................................................... 82
vi
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Results of the Liquidation of the Austro-Hungarian Bank 10
Table 2. Financial Statistics for the Soviet Economy 17
Table 3. Meta-Data summary table 28
Table 4. Regression analysis of Greek and German 10yr bonds Yield to Maturity 37
Table 5. Regression analysis of Greek yield spreads to Greek debt 40
Table 6. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to Open Market Operations, Greek debt
and the German CDS spreads 41
Table 7. Regression analysis of % change of unemployment to % change of GDP 42
Table 8. Regression analysis of Greek bond yields to Moody’s credit rating 43
Table 9. Regression analysis of Greek bond yields to S&P’s credit rating 43
Table 10. Regression analysis of Greek bond yields to Fitch’s credit rating 44
Table 11. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to Moody’s credit rating 45
Table 12. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to S&P’s credit rating 45
Table 13. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to Fitch’s credit rating 46
vii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 U.S. Gross Domestic Product 20
Figure 2 U.S. Average Rate of Unemployment 21
Figure 3 U.S. Government Expenditures and Investments 21
Figure 4 Argentine Unemployment Rate and Inflation 24
Figure 5 Argentine Real GDP Growth Rate 25
Figure 6 Top bondholders of Greek government bonds (percentage of bonds) 33
Figure 7 Regression Analysis Scatterplot 39
Figure 8 10 year Greek and German bond Yield to Maturity 39
Figure 9 Greek over German yield spreads 41
Figure 10 GeneralGovernment Government Revenue and Expenditure as % of GDP 47
Figure 11 Net external debt in % GDP (quarterly data) 47
Figure 12 % change in Unit Labour Costs 47
Figure 13 Greek Government Budget Deficit as % of GDP 47
Figure 14 Phillips curve of the Greek economy 48
Figure 15 General government gross debt to GDP ratio 49
Figure 16 Greek real GDP growth rate 50
Figure 17 Greek unemployment rate 51
Figure 18 Greek real GDP growth rate 52
Figure 19 Greek unemployment rate 52
Figure 20 Greek annual % change of exports of goods and services 53
Figure 21 Greek annual % change of exports of goods and services 53
Figure 22 PPP conversion factor (GDP) to market exchange ratio in Greece 56
Figure 23 Election poll 2013 for Greece 58
Figure 24 Imports vs foreign exchange reserves 59
Figure 25 Import coverage for Greece 60
Figure 26 Consumer’s confidence for Greece 60
viii
1
CHAPTER 1 Introduction The financial crisis of 2007-2008 started in the United States of America as a consequence of years of
deregulation and excessive risk taking and careless lending by the banks. This crisis eventually led to the
later Eurozone crisis. The Eurozone crisis started in late 2009 and was a mixture of sovereign debt crisis,
banking crisis, growth and competitiveness crisis. The situation was more difficult in some countries
because of the accumulation of large amounts of sovereign debt. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Greece
faced the biggest problems. Greece’s sovereign debt increased to €262 billion in 2009 from €168 billion in
2004. Currently the Greek debt reaches €378 billion, or 199% of its GDP (including the last loans).
The then Prime Minister George Papandreou, after worsening the situation for Greece and increasing the
spreads by making careless public announcements –in which he talked about a country of corruption- along
with the public announcement of the then minister of economics G. Papaconstantinou, in which he
compared Greece to the Titanic, he decided to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
So Greece started accepting rescue packages and imposing austerity measures dictated by the Troika (IMF,
European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission (EC)). As it was mentioned before the greater
problem of countries like Greece was the excessive debt accumulation through the years. I will quote here
Karl Marx in a section taken by the Capital Vol. 1:
“National debts, i.e., the alienation of the state – whether despotic, constitutional or republican – marked
with its stamp the capitalistic era. The only part of the so-called national wealth that actually enters into
the collective possessions of modern peoples is their national debt. Hence, as a necessary consequence, the
modern doctrine that a nation becomes the richer the more deeply it is in debt. Public credit becomes the
credo of capital. And with the rise of national debt-making, want of faith in the national debt takes the place
of the blasphemy against the Holy Ghost, which may not be forgiven.
The public debt becomes one of the most powerful levers of primitive accumulation. As with the stroke of
an enchanter’s wand, it endows barren money with the power of breeding and thus turns it into capital,
without the necessity of its exposing itself to the troubles and risks inseparable from its employment in
industry or even in usury. The state-creditors actually give nothing away, for the sum lent is transformed
into public bonds, easily negotiable, which go on functioning in their hands just as so much hard cash
would. But further, apart from the class of lazy annuitants thus created, and from the improvised wealth of
the financiers, middlemen between the government and the nation-as also apart from the tax-farmers,
merchants, private manufacturers, to whom a good part of every national loan renders the service of a
capital fallen from heaven-the national debt has given rise to joint-stock companies, to dealings in
negotiable effects of all kinds, and to agiotage, in a word to stock-exchange gambling and the modern
bankocracy.”
2
Marx plainly states here how public debt which on the one hand is a property of all is on the other hand the
main way to create capital from otherwise nonproductive money. So while all people are responsible for
their country’s debt as they have to pay higher taxes and comply with several austerity measures; banks,
creditors and speculators become richer. In this way the main cause of bankocracy is the money that public
creditors lend but never actually give. Karl Marx even in 1867 managed to understand and explain things
that today are apparent in our economies.
Greece right now continues its course indicated by the Troika, complying with the austerity measures in
order to achieve internal devaluation and become competitive. A pretty difficult course as its people have
to accept higher taxes, lower wages and unemployment. The strange thing though is that although everyone
seems to have a Plan B, indicating the way that a Greek exit from the Eurozone should happen, Greek
government does not even consider the exit as an option as they think that it would be catastrophic for the
country. It is noteworthy, that although the case of Greece is something new, as an exit from a monetary
union like the Eurozone never happened before, there are precedents that could be paralleled to the Greek
situation and it is possible to draw some important lessons from these breakups.
In this master’s thesis I will examine three previous incidents of monetary union breakups; the Austro-
Hungarian Empire, the case of Czechoslovakia and the breakup of the Soviet Union. I will also examine
the policies followed by F.D. Roosevelt in his hundred first days during the Great Depression, the case of
Argentina in 1999 and finally the Icelandic crisis of 2008, in order to find out if an exit will have the
expected results for Greece and also in order to draw some lessons. I will also try to conclude if the Troika’s
plan was successful, see how the whole situation in Europe and Germany affects Greece and the risk of the
Greek debt and I will also construct a complete exit plan for Greece.
The remainder of the thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 2 of this thesis includes an overview of the
literature related to topics such as the Euro-entry, the Euro-exit and the breakup of the Euro. Chapter 3
includes the examination and parallelism of the precedents. Chapter 4 includes the empirical analysis and
an overview of several basic indicators of the Greek economy along with the comparison of the expectations
of the Troika and the realizations. Chapter 5 includes the Plan B for Greece. And finally, chapter 6
summarizes and concludes.
In the next section there will be a brief analysis of the related literature, taking into account both views-
staying into Eurozone and stepping out from it.
3
CHAPTER 2 Literature review Greece became a part of the Eurozone in January 2001, and eight years later the problems started. A quick
look at Greece’s financials is enough to find out that Greece, was always, in terms of public debt, an
indebted economy, with a far larger debt than that of its European counterparts. It was a vicious circle,
where debt was followed by investments and development and even more debt, something like a fake
development; a development that was not organic. The question is why Greek crisis happened now? Maybe
the main reason was the outbreak of the credit crisis a couple of years earlier and the systemic risk it created.
There were many suggestions from several economists around the world about what Greece should do.
Liberal and monetarist economists suggested that Greece should stay in the Eurozone and accept help from
the IMF and comply with the austerity measures dictated by the Troika (EC, ECB, IMF). Other economists
suggested that Greece should leave the Eurozone, and perhaps Europe, introduce a new national currency
and regain its ability of exercising monetary policy, and protecting its domestic market. However, it should
be noted that skepticism about the Eurozone is not something new, and it is for sure not a consequence of
the crisis. Long before the creation of the European Union (EU), many believed that this was a great
mistake.
Ralf Dahrendorf wrote for example in an article published in the “New Statesman” (1998) that European
Monetary Union (EMU) is a project dreamed up by politicians with more faith in political will than
economic sense. He believed that the euro would divide Europe like nothing else since 1945. Paul Krugman
also wrote in 2012 that the America’s and the United Kingdom’s unions are and will be the only functional
unions because they coincide with one nation, one government, a common language and culture, while
Europe is nothing like that. Many of the critics of EU justified their concerns about its success based on the
lack of a political union. By examining if the Eurozone meets all the criteria of the optimum currency area
theory academics found out that it surely does not, and as Gottfried Haberler (1979) stressed, it is important
that all the member-countries are governed by the same political beliefs for a union to succeed. Political
consolidation after all is the only way to economic convergence. Emeritus professor of the London School
of Economics and Political Science, Paul de Grauwe (2010), concludes that the only way for the Eurozone
to survive is the ability to embed itself into a political union; and by this he means that there must be some
transfer of sovereignty in the conduct of macroeconomic policies other than monetary policies from the
members to the union. Nevertheless, there are still some people who believe that a European political
integration is not the solution. Professor Simon Wren-Lewis (2013) of Oxford University disputes this idea,
arguing that we should be cautious about forming concrete conclusions from a single observation. He states
that the Eurozone crisis does not necessarily prove that a monetary union also requires a fiscal-political
union; he even supports the idea that the consequences of a bad political union could be even more
catastrophic than the consequences of a badly designed monetary union. The situation in the Eurozone
would be better if the ECB was acting more like the US Federal Reserve (FED) and if Germany and other
fiscally untroubled economies were less obsessed with austerity. Notable is also the view of Naomi Klein
4
(2013) who says that what countries that became members of EU do not understand, is that they handed
part of their sovereignty and their ability to affect their economy. For Naomi Klein, the EU and the
Eurozone is a prison and the whole crisis and its transfer from Wall Street to the different economies across
the world and innocent people is part of a shock therapy.
On the other hand, people who think that Greece should stay in the Eurozone believe that an exit would be
catastrophic for Europe; as Fabio Riccelli, manager of the Luxembourg-domiciled Fidelity European
Dynamic Growth fund said, a Grexit could cause contagion; contagion here is defined as a significant
increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or a group of countries. Furthermore, the
pressure to the other weak European economies would be unbearable as interdependence of Greece is large,
i.e. Greece has strong relations with other European economies in all states of the world, such as trade
linkages and financial linkages (Cyprus is the obvious example of these linkages). Of course things would
not be the same if Greece were forced to leave the Union. As “The Economist” mentions in the article
“Exodus chapter 1”, a Greek exit and a disorderly bankruptcy would surely lead to contagion as the Greek
Central Bank owes over €100bn to the other central banks of the countries that are members of the Euro,
something that could surely harm European taxpayers. Germany, Britain, France and the IMF would bear
the largest losses. Stephane Deo, Paul Donovan and Larry Hatheway conclude in their UBS report, “a brief
history of breakups” (2011) that the economic and political consequences of a monetary union break up are
so severe, as to deter all but the most determined, or to deter all but those already suffering extraordinary
economic distress. Some of the greatest problems that Greece would face if it decided to exit the Euro
would be: collapse of the European Monetary Union payments system, hyperinflation, capital flight and
also the exit could hurt Europe’s trust in Greece (Anders Aslund, 2012). As Anders Aslund points out a
Eurozone exit might mean an exit from Europe as well, and this also means that Greece would lose any
advantages from being a member of Europe such as agricultural subsidies and other grants, exclusion from
the customs union and thus trade discrimination and finally exclusion from the Schengen visa area; with
the later having terrible impact on Greece’s tourism. And these are the impacts on Greece alone; Critics of
a Grexit such as Aslund believe that the exit would hurt Europe as well, creating a bank crisis, a bond crisis
and a trade slowdown. In addition to these three effects, Europe might face a chain of other countries’
defaults. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) calculates the costs of a disorderly Greek default above
€1 trillion taking into account the spillover effect. Raoul Ruparel and Mats Persson (2012) believe that the
costs from a Greek exit would outweigh the benefits. Finally, on their D&B special report the authors
conclude that impacts of a Greek exit would be so severe to the banking and the business sector that they
recommend that investors - based on their risk aversion - withdraw their money from the Greek market.
One view that was extensively discussed within Europe was the introduction of the Eurobond. Some people,
like Jeffrey Frankel (2012) believe that this could be part of the solution to the euro problem. Market and
investors would gratefully accept Eurobonds to diversify their portfolios, especially if with Eurobonds, they
5
could achieve higher returns than by buying US treasury bills. George Soros (2013) writes in “The
Guardian” that a Eurobond is the best solution for Europe. As he sees it, the solution is countries which
abide by the fiscal covenant, to be allowed to convert their entire stock of government debt into Eurobonds.
Of course this is something that Germany would not like, as it believes that knowing that somebody else
will pay the bill would give the incentive to already indebted economies to spend even more making the
problem worse.
The IMF tends to use the same recipe again and again, even after a series of failures. A typical example is
the Asian crisis where the IMF’s policy advice to solve the Asian crisis of increasing interest rates and
decreasing government expenditures had adverse effects, mostly because many conditions were attached
to the IMF loans and as a result led to microeconomic impacts. Whoever knows the basics of economics
can understand that trying to fight crisis with austerity measures is an unorthodox policy. Paul Krugman
calls austerity a “zombie” economic policy because as zombies keep coming no matter how many times
you shoot them the same happens with austerity measures; after seeing that this policy is not successful
Germany and IMF keep using it. Nouriel Roubini (2012) writes in “The Guardian” that the Eurozone has
an austerity strategy but no growth strategy. And because of that all it has is a recession strategy that makes
austerity and reform self-defeating, if output contraction continues, deficit and debt ratios will inevitably
continue to increase to unsustainable levels. What Europe needs is a much easier monetary policy and a
less front-loaded mode of fiscal austerity. Otherwise, Europe should be ready to face a stronger Euro, a
lower external competitiveness and of course a deeper recession. An RMF (research on money and finance)
report written by Powel, Stenfors and Teles (2010) about the Eurozone’s austerity measures is quite
interesting and relative to the matter. The authors, state that the austerity strategy suffers from a deep flaw.
It is well known that one of the biggest problems of the Eurozone is the loss of competitiveness by the
periphery; by introducing austerity measures both in the periphery and the core, Europe cancels its own
policy, as the core has enjoyed sustained competitive gains due to the wage repression. As a matter of fact,
trying to increase competitiveness both in periphery and the core, sustains divergence in Europe. So what
Europe should do as Matthew O’Brien states in his article “why the euro is doomed in 4 steps” is forcing
the northern bloc to increase wages and deficits, to offset the demand destruction in the southern bloc. Some
other things that should change in order to avoid a Euro crash as Simon Tilford (2011) concludes are
increasing Germany’s domestic demand, make monetary policies more expansionary as they are too strict,
encourage financial markets to discipline governments to discourage them from taking more debt, and
finally avoiding an Italian exit because it could be disastrous for the Eurozone.
Mario Blejer, former governor of Argentina’s central bank, and director of the Centre for Central Banking
Studies at the Bank of England has a typical view of Europe’s way of dealing with this kind of problems.
He believes that the whole situation in Europe resembles a pyramid or a Ponzi scheme. The only difference
is that Europe’s Ponzi scheme is a public sector one; this means that it is more flexible and while in a private
6
scheme the pyramid collapses when there are not any new investors to pay the old ones, in a public scheme
things can theoretically go on forever. As long as the funding comes from public money, the peripheral
countries’ debt could continue to grow without a hypothetical limit.
There are some papers which support the idea that departures from monetary unions can lead to positive
results. Andrew K. Rose (2006) compared countries that left monetary unions to those which stayed within
the unions and found out that the leavers tend to be richer, larger and more democratic but they also tend
to have higher inflation. John Tepper mentions in his paper “A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Default, Exit
and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution” that exiting from the Euro would accelerate insolvencies, but
would provide a powerful policy tool via flexible exchange rates. The European periphery could then grow
again quickly with deleveraged balance sheets and more competitive exchange rates, much like many
emerging markets after recent defaults and devaluations (Asia 1997, Russia 1998, and Argentina 2002).
There are also more optimistic economists such as Costas Lapavitsas (June 2012) who as he writes in “Le
Monde Diplomatique” after Greece exits the Euro, the Eurozone periphery may follow; this can be a huge
change and a new start for Europe and will lead to a slow recovery for Greece. Other economists like Yianis
Varoufakis (November 2012, “The Modest Proposal for the Euro”) believe that Europe is about to dissolve,
and that the only way to save euro is to redesign it from the beginning. Johan Van Overtveldt thinks as he
writes in his book “The End of the Euro: The Uneasy Future of the European Union” that there is no other
solution for Greece than to leave Eurozone. In his book “the end of the Euro” he states that this is not the
best solution but it is the least bad option from a limited number of outlets.
In addition, there are economists that take a middle ground such as Prof. Hans-Werner Sinn (April 2013).
He thinks that it is clear that the austerity measures do not work at all, and as the opposite strategy -inflating
Germany- is impossible, a good solution would be Greece stepping out of the Eurozone but not
permanently. Greece could exit the Euro and be offered a return ticket; so that it will be able to enter again
the Eurozone after it meets again some appropriate criteria.
Roger Bootle (2012) has written a complete practical guide for a country leaving the Euro. In his paper
which won the Wolfson economic prize, he analyses what should be done and he gives recommendations
for the exit. However, he sees a complete euro break up, with all current members returning to their national
currencies unlikely because there is a strong desire in key countries to preserve the single currency idea.
That is why he believes that what is more likely, is a dissolution between a northern monetary union
centered on Germany and a southern one centered on France. The idea of a two-core Eurozone is not a new
one, it has been there from the beginning. Many believed that the differences in the economies of the two
cores are so great that a single monetary union would be difficult to exist. Today and after five years of
euro-crisis, this theory comes back to the fore. More specifically, Hans-Olaf Henkel (2011) talks about
splitting euro into two currencies, one for the creditor-countries and one for the indebted ones. He calls this
7
plan, “plan C”, but he sees the introduction of a nordeuro a bit unlikely. Of course, he understands that with
this plan Germany may face a decrease in its exports, but trying to save the Euro by bailing out economies
will have its cost too. Brigitte Granville, Stefan Kawalec and Hans-Olaf Henkel (2013), propose that the
Euro split-up should be designed and led by France, as France is one of the core countries which faces
economic difficulties too and was one of the creators of the Euro. After the rich countries leave the Euro,
the rest of the Eurozone could gain again its competitiveness and this can be the start of a new development.
Finally, Frédéric Lordon (2013) in his proposition for the Eurozone in “Monde Diplomatique” with the
original title “Sortir de l’euro?” (Leave the Euro?), suggests that the Eurozone should leave the Euro and
introduce a common currency with national representatives; such a currency would have different exchange
rates with foreign exchange currencies and between the members of the Eurozone could exist a special
exchange rate regime, with fixed exchange rates.
8
CHAPTER 3 Historical Parallels The following section consists of an overview of other currency unions and their dissolutions. The monetary
unions that will be examined were chosen because of their resemblance to the Eurozone. Of course no union
can be fully compared to the European one, but valuable lessons can be derived by looking at unions that
share some common characteristics with the current union. The unions that will be examined are: the
Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Czechoslovakian union, the United States and the golden standard
(1932/33), the Soviet Union (1992/93), the Argentina and the dollar peg, and finally there will be an
overview of the crisis in Iceland. Other monetary unions such as the Scandinavian, the Latin and the United
States 1861 are in purpose excluded because they share only a few common characteristics with the
Eurozone and only little conclusions would have been derived from a parallelism.
3.1 Austro-Hungarian Empire
Austro-Hungary also known as Austro-Hungarian Empire or Dual Monarchy was a dual constitutional
monarchic union consisting of the Crowns of the Austrian Empire and the Kingdom of Hungary and was
located in Central Europe from 1867 to 1918 when it dissolved. After World War I the empire’s regime
was overthrown and its land was splintered following international law conditions. As far as its monetary
union is concerned the Austro-Hungarian Empire was a fiat currency monetary union between Austria and
Hungary with a mutual central bank. The currency of the union was the Kronen. The currency was legal
tender within the whole empire and was also exchangeable and used in other parts of the empire. The case
of the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian monetary union is considered to be one of the closest ones to a
possible break-up of the Eurozone, as in both cases we have to do with a currency union of different member
countries, with a one and only mutual strong central bank. Of course there are much more profound
differences; maybe the most important differences are the reasons of creation of the unions and the reasons
for dissolution, the size and differences in cultures of the members, and the fact that many member countries
of the Eurozone disobey its rules.
After 1867, the Austrian central bank evolved to a shared institution with offices in both capitals and with
the significance of the Hungarian part increasing over time. A two-level fiscal system was used; one for the
government and the other for the confederation. Most of the confederation’s revenues were coming from
custom taxes and were used to cover union expenditures –mostly military costs. Every country had its own,
government, parliament and could issue its own national debt while both countries were sharing the army,
the legal system, the currency and the diplomatic service. The union government was not allowed to run
deficits. Problems started after 1890s, when both countries could not borrow anymore from international
creditors, as the rates were getting higher and higher. This was an era of great volatility for the Krone and
the lack of reserves by the central bank made matters worse. As a result, the two countries have adopted a
9
stricter and tightening fiscal policy. More specifically, from 1887 to 1896 the central bank was forced to
raise its reserves to 40% of paper notes issued, with both countries funding the program. At the same period
the two governments faced their highest deficits (a peak of 80% of debt to GDP ratio for Austria and of
120% for Hungary). In a later attempt of the two governments to stabilize their currency, they repurchased
pre-Compromise government notes for gold, and this helped the mutual central bank to raise its reserves.
The share of funding was 70-30 for Austria and Hungary respectively. It has to be noted that both
governments were competing with each other on gaining control of the central bank, and although Austria
was a larger country and a stronger economy, both governments had equal rights regarding the central bank;
it was a price Austrians did not mind to pay if this was the only way of sustaining a strong Austro-Hungarian
central bank and avoiding a possible separation. The process of sterilization of government paper turned
out to be successful and provided central bank with adequate reserves, more than enough for an effective
cover ratio. In 1896 the common currency was pegged to gold to protect the governments from the exchange
rate risk on their borrowings. The period the empire adopted the gold standard, Austria’s average per capita
growth rate was 1.49%, double its average per capita growth rate of the two decades following 1873 but
considerably lower than that of Germany’s at the same period.
The beginning of the end for the empire came on 23 July 1914 when Austria-Hungary started war against
Serbia; the situation caused great agony on the two countries’ stock exchanges. A couple of months later,
the situation got so worse, that the empire cut off the gold convertibility of the Krone, and the pretension
to hold 40% reserves as a cover; moreover, the central bank could now lend to the government. War was
mainly financed by the central bank by printing new money, and as a result inflation was skyrocketed. In
1918 empire was defeated, and was forced to separation. The successor states as they were called, were
Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Austria and Hungary. The separation also meant separation of the
central bank into two national banks, and of course separation of the common currency.
In parallelism with the Eurozone the separation of the currency is maybe the most important part of the
story. It took place in two stages; the first stage consisted of the stamping of the old currency notes, and the
second stage consisted of the transition from them to the new national currencies. The peace treaties
indicated that every successor state should stamp the currency in its territory and after a year introduce its
own national currency, while the stamped notes were going to be destroyed. Of course the whole process
had its complications as different states were imposing different taxes over stamping or forced loans
something that led people to delay the stamping in order to stamp their notes in the best terms. It was not
impossible to move notes from one state to the other for stamping. For example when the stamping process
started in Austria people were not eager to hand their notes, as the stamping process had not started in
Hungary yet and the unstamped notes were still legal in Austria. Another problem was that the stamps could
be easily forged. This was the main reason why the Serb-Croat-Slovene State later proceeded to another
stamping process. In addition, another major problem was the simultaneous circulation of other national
10
currencies. It is for sure, difficult to gauge the cross-border flows of notes, but it is not impossible to have
some approximation. In a working paper of the IMF the authors use as a source a report by de Bordes
(1926). They find out that while 31% of the notes were circulating in Czechoslovakia, 21% in Austria, 18%
in Hungary, 12% in Yugoslavia and 5.2% in Transylvania, the amount of notes that were stamped in
Czechoslovakia was only 22% and in Austria was 18%, of the whole stock of Krone banknotes in
circulation. Even with these rough calculations it is clear that a large amount of banknotes was part of cross-
border flows. This gives a very clear picture of what could happen in a similar situation in the Eurozone
after a Greek exit. Therefore, it is important to plan the whole situation in secrecy and prevent money
outflows from the country.
The first state to start stamping was Czechoslovakia in 1919 and a year later Romania and Yugoslavia
followed. The last to start the process of stamping and exchanging were Austria and Hungary. The peace
treaties precisely required the successor states after collecting all the notes in their territories to hand them
to the liquidators of the Austro-Hungarian bank for accounting and destruction. Detailed explanation of the
liquidation of the Austro-Hungarian central bank will not be given as it has nothing to teach us about
Eurozone’s case. In short, the central bank had two departments, the mortgage and the deposits, that were
liquidated. The liquidation of the first department was made by converting the claims into Austrian crowns,
and then the paying off was made with bank assets. As far as the deposits department is concerned, small
deposits were withdrawn while the rest of the department were moved wholesale to the Vienna Postal
Savings Bank. Shareholders were denied their claims to the bank; what they got was a residual share of the
bank’s net assets, some of its Austrian property and the printing press. Most of the bank’s gold reserves
were distributed to the states. Regarding the bank’s liabilities, a classification of the pre-war debt took place
as secured or unsecured. The secured debt was transferred to the state that the security was its property,
while unsecured debt was proportionately distributed among the states.
Table 1. Results of the Liquidation of the Austro-Hungarian Bank (Million gold kronen)
Total
distribution
Gold Property Other Assets
Austria 25.2 19.7 5.5 -
Hungary 25.2 19.7 5.5 -
Czechoslovakia 44.4 36.0 6.3 2.1
Yugoslavia 30.3 27.4 2.8 0.1
Romania 43.6 41.0 2.6 0.0
Italy 17.8 17.3 - 0.5
Poland 15.2 12.4 2.8 0.0
11
Total 201.7 173.5 25.4 2.8
Source: Zeuceanu (1924) pp.454-456
The next years both Austria and Hungary, after consecutive increases of the supply of money to finance
their deficits, faced hyperinflations. More specifically, in Austria loans to the government increased
multiple times and the increase reached a peak of 1,586% in 1922; at the same period the loans to the private
sector increased to unprecedented levels (from 424m Kronen at the end of 1920 to 781.8bn Kronen at the
end of 1922)1. Furthermore, Austria faced great increases in its retail prices (1,748% from December 1921
to December 1922). Situation was not any different in Hungary, which faced an increase in its loans to the
government of 834% in 1922 and an increase of 2,156% in 1923. A similar increase was noticed at the
commercial loans with increases of 663% in 1922 and 1,788% in 1923. It has to be noted that all the above
increases in loans were fueled by enormous increases of the supply of notes in circulation. On the contrary,
situation in Czechoslovakia was not the same at all. Czechoslovakians prohibited any monetary financing
of the deficit i.e. banking office lending to the government. However, the same could not be done with the
commercial loans which faced a raise of 2,432% in 1920; commercial loans were only a small proportion
of total assets though. So situation for Czechoslovakia was completely the opposite. The following years
total credit decreased and the same happened to the bulk of notes in circulation. Czechoslovakia also tried
to restore the exchange rate of the Kronen to its pre-war levels, but after facing a significant appreciation
which led to numerous problems including a rise in unemployment it gave up the idea.
The stabilization process for Austria started with the help of the League of Nations. A number of strategies
were adapted for the stabilization of the Austrian Kronen such as suspension of borrowing from the Austrian
section, capital controls and credit rationing. Austria in order to cover its deficits had to borrow money
from the League of Nations; of course in order to borrow the money it had to agree to a number of measures.
After that, national bank regained its strength and also people regained confidence in the Austrian Kronen,
and as a result a lot of capital returned to the country. Finally, on March 1 1925, Austria introduced a new
currency named the Schilling (1 Schilling=10,000 Kronen). Stabilization in Hungary was not any different,
as it had also to borrow from the League of Nations to cover its large deficits and also agreed to a financial
program. Before the two countries could sign for the loans, they had to meet some requirements; the
agreements were formalized in protocols signed in Geneva. One of the conditions of the program was that
the League of Nations would have the control over the execution of the program, something that is not far
from the situation in the countries under crisis in the Eurozone.
1 All statistics are taken from the IMF report “the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire” that used as its source the League of Nations
12
3.1.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire
Unfortunately, the incident of the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian currency union is not encouraging, as
both countries after the breakup suffered from hyperinflations, great capital flight, and they had to agree
for help with the League of Nations. On the other hand, one could argue that this monetary union was a
successful one because it only consisted of two countries with limited differences in culture and geography,
and surely the union was more politically integrated. A main problem of the Eurozone in contrast to the
Austro-Hungarian monetary union is that although its members are constrained not only by the expectations
of the markets but also formally by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), only a few countries remained
obedient to the rules. It has to be noted that two of the first countries to disobey the deficit conditions were
France and Germany. However, this precedent can be used to draw lessons for a similar situation in the
Eurozone and a possible Grexit. First of all, the whole planning of the breakup should be done in complete
secrecy to avoid the problems of capital flight and massive deposits withdrawals. For the first months maybe
it would be wise to introduce some capital controls, and prohibit people from transferring money to other
countries even through the borders. Another problem that faced the empire was that the stamping, could be
easily forged; this is a problem that can be avoided today by using credit cards, at least until the new national
currency is printed. Regarding the hyperinflation issue, it is a problem that may be caused by the reckless
printing of new money to cover deficits and expenditures. However, surveys have shown that a devaluation
of 50% will lead to an imported inflation of about 10%, therefore inflation is a necessary evil; an evil that
can be moderated if government stops relying forever on the central bank for loans.
3.2 Czechoslovakia (1993)
Czechoslovakia was a sovereign state of the Central Europe which consisted of the present states of Czech
and Slovakia. Before World War II a small part of Ukraine also belonged to Czechoslovakia. The state of
Czechoslovakia was formed in 1919 and in 1939 was conquered by the Germans. Its liberation took place
in 1945, but Czechoslovakia was under the influence of Russia, which also secured its unity; it was not
until 1989 when Czechoslovakia returned to democracy.
The breakup of Czechoslovakia started in 1993 and was a two-staged process. At first, the dissolution
concerned only its political union, and the initial plan was, if the two governments agreed, to sustain the
economic and monetary union. It is a fact that the unity of the two states was never strong, but the pretext
was the elections of 1992, when the Czechs elected a coalition of three right-of-center parties while the
Slovaks elected a left-wing nationalist party. As the two parties could not agree about the distribution of
power across the federation they agreed to dissolve, and create two independent countries. In order to
moderate the economic consequences of the demise of the federation the two countries decided to retain
13
the monetary union at least temporarily and also retain the customs union and free movement of labor
permanently. After dismantling, both countries established their own central banks; however, a Monetary
Committee was also established for the design of the common monetary policy. Soon, the first problems
appeared, when foreign exchange reserves started to decline and the credibility of the Monetary Committee
was at stake. It became clear that sooner or later the monetary union would dissolve as well, so many
Slovaks and even Slovak firms started to transfer money to Czech banks, as they believed that Czech
economy was stronger and more stable and they were afraid of a devaluation in Slovakia. Expectations of
a future Slovak devaluation made Slovak importers to repay their debts before it was too late, while the
opposite happened with the Czech importers. The same period Czech exports to Slovakia skyrocketed. It is
obvious that a great outflow of funds took place once more on the anticipation of a breakup of a monetary
union. In an attempt to offset this outflow State Bank of Czechoslovakia started giving loans to Slovak
banks. The final breakup of the monetary union was decided to take place on January 1993.
The whole process was planned in complete secrecy to avoid more problems. The measures taken to
complete the separation of the currency can of course make up for an example of a possible Grexit or even
a complete breakup of the Eurozone. The most notable measures taken were, border controls, cessation of
all payments between the two countries. The process completed pretty quickly, it only lasted three days,
and within these three days all the old currency was stamped. The governments put a limit to the amount
of cash that could be stamped and so they encouraged deposits to banks; of course coins and banknotes of
smaller value were circulating and were valid for several months. The impact of the breakup was mostly
negative in the short term, as trade between the countries declined, the separation of the currency and the
introduction of new currencies created one-time costs for both economies; estimations reveal that Czech
GDP declined by 1% while the decline for the Slovak GDP was even higher, about 4%. The distribution of
the movable assets and reserves of the common central bank was done in proportion to the two countries
population (2:1); immovable assets came to the property of the country in which they were located. Jan
Fidrmuc and Hovarth (1998) analyze economic background of the breakup from the perspective of the
optimum currency area literature and they find out that negative impacts of the dissolution could have been
reduced if governments had taken measures to increase labor mobility, by increasing fiscal transfers or by
region specific policies. Short-term negative impacts were far more severe for Slovakia as it was a weaker
economy and things got even worse because of the lack of fiscal transfers which helped the equalization of
per capita income. Finally, situation for Slovakia improved after a devaluation of 10% on its currency.
Although the breakup had some negative impacts on the short run, the two economies managed to recover
pretty fast, as one year later both economies returned to growth. The decline of trade between the two
countries was offset by the increase in trade with other economies.
14
3.2.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia
One important characteristic of the break-up of Czechoslovakia is the great difference in the economies of
the two members. On the one hand Czech had a more stable and strong economy, on the other hand Slovakia
had a weaker economy apt to devaluations. Situation can be paralleled to the Eurozone’s where the core
countries have strong, stable, exporting economies while the periphery consists of more unstable, importing
economies with large deficits. In economies with such differences the existence of asymmetric shocks can
incommode even more the convergence efforts, especially when there is lack of fiscal transfers and labor
mobility. Labor mobility in Europe is lower than 0.1%, and fiscal transfers are questionable. So this is
surely a problem of the Eurozone as well. Another lesson that can be drawn from the precedent of
Czechoslovakia is that lack of a political union makes things a lot more difficult for the currency union.
The currency union of Czechoslovakia could not last more than six weeks after the political breakup. Of
course there are a lot of differences between Czechoslovakia and the Eurozone. Once again the size of the
considered union is much smaller than the Eurozone’s; but if it was difficult for a two member union to
sustain its unity, how difficult should it be for a 17-member union? Furthermore Czechoslovakia consisted
of two cultures characterized by much more common characteristics than the people of the Eurozone.
Another great difference of the two unions is that although the Eurozone has a central monetary authority
for the designing and planning of the common monetary policy that is strong and creditworthy, the same
was not true for Czechoslovakia where the central authority was the Monetary Committee. Conclusively,
we could agree that the example of the break-up of Czechoslovakia is an optimistic one, considering the
speed with which the two economies managed to complete the disintegration, the introduction of the new
national currencies and also the speed with which the two economies managed to recover after the demise
of the federation. Fidrmuc and Horvath (1998) state that it is crucial for two economies after the break-up
to sustain the customs union and the labor mobility; however my concerns on a Grexit are related to how
and if a customs union and a common agricultural policy can help the exited economy on its first steps.
3.3 The Soviet Union
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) or the Soviet Union was a state located in East Europe
and North Asia, and was the largest state in the world. Its capital was Moscow. The Soviet Union was the
first socialist state in worldwide history, it was established in 1922 and dissolved in 1991. With the
dissolution of the Soviet Union, 15 new successor states were established. The collapse of the Soviet Union
in 1991 was followed by the disintegration of the Ruble-zone in December of the same year.
The common currency of the Soviet Union was the Ruble which is also the reason why the union is known
as the Ruble-zone. Ruble banknotes were legal tender across the whole union and were also exchangeable
to foreign currencies at fixed rates, of course with the corresponding conditions and restrictions. Soviet
15
fiscal deficits were financed through seigniorage and borrowing from the private sector. The union was
highly dependent on inter-republic trade; Russia was subsidizing the other republics through trade and it
gained rents from those countries seignorages. Although this resulted in Russia losing money, it was
increasing its influence over the other republics. Production was structured in such a way, so that the union
could sufficiently supply producers as well as consumers across the union. It is notable that the locations
of the factories were chosen not by taking account the minimization of costs but the equation and
convergence of the republics’ economies. The monetary authority of the union and also the one and only
bank was the Gosbank, which had the task of providing the union with additional currency when there was
increased demand. What is also worth-mentioning is the payment system the union used. When an
enterprise had to make a payment, it presented the invoice to the Gosbank and the latter made a transfer of
money from the recipient’s account to the supplier’s account; when the money in the recipient’s account
were insufficient to cover the whole payment to the supplier, Gosbank supplemented the residual by giving
credit to the recipient. This credit would be paid by the recipient after he would receive the money from his
sales. If the recipient would not cover the credit until the end of the plan period, Gosbank wrote off the
debt. Household payments consisted mostly of cash transactions while enterprise payments consisted of
accounting transactions. Union received taxes from households and enterprises to cover any social
payments and pensions, and in the case of deficits, Gosbank covered the amount needed with credit to the
government.
Problems for the Soviet Union started during the last years of its life, when the increased deficits were
mostly financed by foreign borrowing and seigniorage. The excessive creation of money increased demand
for goods and services in unprecedented levels, and this created shortages. Things got even worse after the
failed attempt of Gorbachev’s Perestroika in 1986. Although, Gorbachev’s reforms were an effort to
improve things and their purpose was noble, it had negative consequences on output. Situation got even
worse when Perestroika aggravated social and economic tensions and nationalism and the same period
Soviet Union’s deficit reached 26% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP); further data can be seen in table
2 of the section where we can clearly see how the public debt was increasing as the collapse were coming.
The inability of households and private sector to meet their needs in goods and services forced them to
increase their deposits, a situation known as the “the Ruble overhang”. Finally, as Patrick Conway (1995)
mentions, in January 1991, the government announced that large-denomination banknotes were no longer
legal tender. People could exchange them for smaller bills up to a maximum amount. This of course had a
bad impact on the trust on the Ruble as a currency, and although it decreased the supply of money it
increased expenditure and consequently inflation. In mid-1993 some republics suffered from inflation rates
of 25% per month.
The breakup of the Soviet Union was a two-stage breakup, i.e. a political and an economic. In 1991, after
the collapse of the union, Gosbank dissolved in fifteen separate central banks, with each bank being
16
responsible for its own national financial system. The fifteen independent former members were still
sharing the same currency and the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) retained the right of printing money.
After the demise of the union, there was no official authority for the conducting of monetary policy, and
also the different central banks operated without any coordination; they may had not the right of printing
money but they could finance their deficits with bank credit (monetization of the budget deficits);
something that worsened the situation of the monetary union, by increasing demand but not supply. This
led to the creation of shortages and new increases in inflation. In 1992, administrative price controls were
removed and repressed inflation was released, pushing prices even higher. The absence of markets for the
sale of government bonds made financing more difficult and was forcing governments to rely even more
on credit from their central banks; it was a vicious circle. In addition, fiscal transfers that were used
previously by the union had stopped and the new tax systems were not as successful and effective as the
old one; the latter led to decreased tax revenues in a period of increased expenditures. The situation was
much worse for the non-Baltic economies with Georgia and Ukraine having the largest budget deficits.
As time was passing, things were not improving and by July 1993, seven out of fifteen members of the
Ruble area had retreated from the union and introduced their own national currencies. At the same period
the Russian government declared all the banknotes issued from 1961 to 1992 illegal, and took them out of
circulation. This happened pretty suddenly and without a warning to the other members. Many believe that
the most serious reason for the breakup of the Ruble-zone was the free rider problem, as member countries
could easily finance budget deficits with bank credit and then shift part of the inflationary consequences to
their neighbors. Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova started the necessary processes to introduce their own
national currency. Armenia raised its objection to Russia, as there was an agreement stating that six months
before any reform there should be a warning. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Belarus were cooperative and
decided to stay within the Ruble zone; Tajikistan was the last to leave (1995) as it was torn by civil war.
Russia made it clear to the other members’ central banks that they either could agree to new measures for
reconstitution limiting in this way their rights for credit policy or they could be excluded from the union.
Notable is that before the disintegration of the union, IMF’s advice to the members was to remain within
the union. Nonetheless, IMF changed its advice after Estonia’s success regarding its new currency system.
Most of the former members after introducing their own national currency and conducting their own
monetary policy, suffered from high rates of inflation and depreciation of their currencies. International
financial markets did not show trust in their currencies. Baltic countries on the other hand managed to
annihilate their budget deficits and to fight inflation effectively and as a result they were accepted by
international markets.
17
Table 2. Financial Statistics for the Soviet Economy
Government Budget
Deficit
Government Debt Household Saving
Deposits
Year Billions of
Rubles
Percent of
GNP
Billions
of Rubles
Percent of
GNP
Billions of
Rubles
Percent of
GNP
1980 12 1.9 76 12.2 156.5 57.9
1981 9 1.4 85 13.1 165.7 57.9
1982 15 2.2 100 14.4 174.3 58.9
1983 10 1.4 110 15.1 186.9 61.1
1984 9 1.2 119 15.7 202.1 63.9
1985 14 1.8 133 17.1 220.8 68.0
1986 46 5.8 179 22.4 242.8 73.1
1987 52 6.3 231 28.0 266.9 78.2
1988 81 9.3 312 35.7 296.7 81.0
1989 92 6.9 404 43.4 337.7 83.7
Source: McKinnon, The Order of Economic Liberalization, table 11.1 (1991)
3.3.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Breakup of the Ruble-zone
The Ruble-zone was different from the Eurozone in so many ways but it also shared many common
characteristics. It is true to some point that a Euro breakup would be something entirely new, with no
precedent; but on the other hand by taking into account that the Ruble-zone was also a currency union of
fifteen members we could draw some valuable lessons from its dissolution. First of all we should highlight
the main differences of the two unions. The Ruble-zone’s dissolution was caused by the previous collapse
of the Soviet Union and not by economic problems. Another great difference is that the Soviet Union was
a socialist union, governed as a single party state, and even after the collapse and the independence of the
members, residues of socialism were evident. The fact that the two unions’ regimes are so different may of
course lead to different economic problems and decisions, after all we are talking about a political system
that has long disappeared. Another difference is that the free rider problem of the Ruble-zone cannot be a
problem of the Eurozone, as national central banks of its members do not have the right of financing their
governments with credit. The precedent of the Ruble-zone teaches us that even if the economic costs of a
breakup are high, this is not the reason why it should be avoided. Another lesson we can derive from the
disintegration of the Ruble-zone is that weaker economies may find difficulties in leaving the Eurozone, as
this would cause inflation after the devaluations; this would make debts impossible to be paid, and would
18
finally lead to default, something that would make it harder for the weaker economies to reenter
international financial markets. Of course someone could argue that some of these things are already evident
in the weaker economies of the Eurozone, as debts are too big to be repaid and international financial
markets have lost their trust in those countries. On the other hand, the breakup of the Ruble-zone is more
optimistic for stronger economies considering the course of the Baltic economies. Those countries after
leaving the Ruble-zone, were able to quickly stabilize their economies and fight inflation, and they were
able to finance their public and private debts through the international financial markets.
3.4 United States of America 1930s
The Great Depression was a severe economic crisis that started in 1929 and lasted even for ten years in
some countries. The cause of the crisis was the financial crash that started in 24 October 1929, a day also
known as black Thursday. The end of the depression for the United States of America came with the
development of the war economy of World War II ten years later. The consequences of the depression were
catastrophic both in developing and developed markets. Its negative impacts were apparent in international
trade, wages, tax revenues, prices and firms’ profits and unemployment. By the end of 1931 more than 2200
banks in the U.S. collapsed, and nothing was done by the FED to support them. In March 1933 Franklin
D. Roosevelt was elected president of the United States of America and his task would be difficult. In his
first hundred days president Roosevelt tried to fight depression with an economic program i.e. a series of
measures, known until today as the New Deal.
Franklin D. Roosevelt started the New Deal in 1933 and its cornerstone were the “3 Rs” i.e. Relief,
Recovery, and Reform. The program’s main purpose was to relieve the poor and unemployed, recover the
economy, and finally reform the whole system to prevent another incident. The New Deal was what the
Democratic Party thought was necessary for the economy at that time, but was criticized by a part of the
Republicans. Conservatives believed that this new program would hurt businesses and growth in general,
while Liberals believed that a part of the program was promising for a better future.
The first hundred days were decisive, as government took the most important measures. First of all, the
congress passed laws to protect all stock and bond holders. The measures were mostly a series of acts:
Emergency Banking Act, was a measure that gave the president the power to reopen any viable
banks and regulate banking,
Economy Act, was a measure focusing on cutting federal costs by reorganizing cuts in salaries and
veteran pensions,
Beer-Wine Revenue Act, was an act that was legalizing and taxing wine and beer; this act consisted
a huge blow for illegal trade and gangsters.
19
Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) Act, this was a series of public works such as road building,
forestry labor, flood control etc., and their main purpose was to employ young men; with this act
three million men found work.
Federal Emergency Relief Act, with this act the Federal Emergency and Relief Administration
(FERA) was established and its main purpose was to distribute $500 million to different states.
FERA eventually spent $3 billion.
Agricultural Adjustment Act, the relative administration’s purpose was to decrease crop surpluses
by subsidies and destruction of crops. With the Thomas Amendment, President had the right to
inflate the currency using different ways.
Federal Securities Act, this act would toughen regulation of the securities business.
Tennessee Valley Authority Act, this was an act that gave the government the right to build power
plants and dams in the Tennessee Valley. Its purpose was to generate and sell power and to develop
the area.
The second hundred days the congress took another series of measures such as:
National Employment System Act, its purpose was the creation of the U.S. Employment Service
Home Owners Refinancing Act, this act established the Home Owners Loan Corporation. Its
purpose was to finance non-farm home mortgages.
Glass-Steagall Banking Act, this act was the stepping stone for the later Federal Bank Deposit
Insurance Corporation.
Farm Credit Act, with the purpose of refinancing farm mortgages
Emergency Railroad Transportation Act, to stiffen the regulation of railroads
National Industrial Recovery Act, which established the homonymous administration and the
Public Works Administration.
Abandonment of the gold standard
The last measure is thought by some economists to be the most important measure that President Roosevelt
took during his presidency and maybe the main reason why the United States managed to recover. Back
then, and before the election of F. D. Roosevelt, the gold standard was a monetary system under which all
dollars were convertible to gold; in addition, banks were forced to accumulate large amounts of gold as
reserves. Banks were obligated to keep 40% of the currency in circulation as gold reserves, all this until 19
April, when the U.S.A. dropped the gold standard. Government announced that people should exchange all
of the gold they had (jewelry and gold teeth excepted) for paper money at a price of $20.67 per ounce;
however, this measure didn’t apply to foreign banks and investors. After the suspension of the gold
standard, convertibility of banknotes to gold would be impossible. Although the means used were cruel as
whoever was not exchanging his gold for money could be fined or even sentenced to prison, people did not
reacted as they have been told that this was a national emergency. Roosevelt managed to pass this measure
20
based on a 1917 act; the Trading with the Enemy Act, under which when nation was under war, president
had the right to prohibit people from “hoarding gold”. The main reasons that led to the decision for
suspension of the gold standard, was firstly, the deflation that prevailed in the U.S. with the wholesale
prices falling 37% and farm prices falling by 65% and secondly, the abandonment of the gold standard by
Britain in 1931 that led to a devaluation of the Pound of 30% and to a decrease of the competitiveness of
the U.S.. With the suspension of the gold standard the Dollar exchange rate with the other gold standard
currencies decreased by 11.5%. In 1933, government’s main purpose was reflation and to achieve that goal,
administration proceeded in several raises of the price of gold; the consequences for the dollar was
consecutive depreciations. The decisive move of the Congress to transfer to the government the title of gold
from the Federal Reserve, made things even easier for Roosevelt. He managed to increase the gold price to
$35 dollars per ounce, a measure that led to the devaluation of the dollar to 59.06% of the par of 1879. The
U.S. started to buy gold from different countries, and by 1935 $1.74 billion gold had been imported to the
country; Roosevelt continued this policy by also buying silver and increasing country’s reserves. This was
one of the greatest devaluations in the history of the U.S. which gave it a competitive advantage over the
other economies. Situation was so bad for the economies that were under the gold standard that they were
forced to drop the gold standard too.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945
U.S. GDP
US GDP (in billion current dollars)
Figure 1
21
It is clear from the above figures that the United States managed to recover under Roosevelt’s “New Deal”.
More specifically, after 1934, the U.S. domestic product started an increasing course which intensified
during the war when the country developed its war economy. During the same period and because of the
“New Deal”, government expenditures started increasing and reached to unprecedented levels in 1940s
because of war expenditures. In the late 1930s unemployment reached double digit levels which started
9.4 10 9.9 8.7 8.7 10.5 10.9 13.1 12.8 13.8 14.8 15
26.5
62.7
94.8
105.3
93
Government Expenditures and Investments
Government Expenditures and Investments(in billions current dollars)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939
Average Rate of Unemployment
Average Rate of Unemployment
Figure 3
Figure 2
22
decreasing under the “New Deal”. The sudden increase in 1938 was due to a second depression that hit the
United States. What is also noteworthy is that every country that abandoned gold standard early, managed
to devalue its currency by around 40% and recover quickly while the countries that were the last to drop
the gold standard, were also the last to recover, namely France, Netherlands and Poland. Bernanke and
James (1991) find that countries like Spain that were not on the gold standard did not face any of the
deflation problems of the Great Depression. They also find that countries that abandoned earlier the gold
standard faced a growth of industrial production that averaged 7 percentage points a year better than the
countries remaining on the gold standard.
3.4.1 Lessons to be drawn from the drop of the Golden Standard
The case of the United States is more closely related to a Greek exit from the Eurozone as it conceals maybe
the main strategy that most supporters of a Grexit believe that Greece should follow after it leaves the Euro;
currency devaluation. F.D. Roosevelt, after the suspension of the gold standard, proceeded to a major
devaluation of the Dollar and managed to recover the economy. This is a very encouraging precedent for
Greece. However, someone can argue that there are major differences in the economies of the two countries.
On the one hand, the United States was the largest economy in the world back then and a major exporter.
On the other hand Greece today only accounts for the 2% of the EU GDP, and is mostly an importing
country with no industrial sector. However, a devaluation could be lifesaving for such an economy too, as
it could improve Greece’s terms of trade by increasing its exports and decreasing its imports, it could
increase Greece’s tourism and foreign direct investments, it could help Greece regain its domestic market
and finally develop again its agricultural sector. Another valuable lesson from the US incident is the way
F.D. Roosevelt proceeded to the suspension of the gold standard; he firstly declared bank holiday. A step
that Greek government should do before introducing the new currency to manage to prepare itself and limit
the panic. Finally, it has to be noted that Roosevelt followed a complete different strategy during the Great
depression; it was a Keynesian approach that in order to fight the negative consequences of the crisis he
increased public expenditures and raised wages. Furthermore, he supported workers and the unions against
capital. It may be a different situation for Greece but the policies the IMF uses are completely the opposite.
Recently in Greece, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras prohibited strikes using the law of mobilization
against the high schools teachers.
3.5 Argentina 1999-2002
The Argentine crisis was an economic decline that started in 1999 in Argentina. It was a chain of events
consisting of a great fall in Argentine GDP, rise in unemployment, fall of the government, riots, and the
end of the Peso’s peg to the Dollar, and default on the country’s foreign debt. The case of Argentina is the
23
most closely related to the case of Greece and can teach us valuable lessons regarding the “Plan B”.
Argentina had always a turbulent economy, but the main reasons of its economic crisis are three. The first
reason was the devaluation of the Brazilian Real which led to the fall of Argentina’s exports. Brazil
proceeded in devaluation of its currency to get out of the crisis in a period in which Latin America, Russia
and later Asia were facing economic problems. The second reason was the tax increases in 2000 and
Argentina’s high rate of unemployment. And finally, the third main reason was its extensive government
debt.
In 1999, Argentine deficit was 2.5% of GDP, and then-President De la Rúa believed that by reducing it, he
could inculcate confidence to the market and maybe reduce interest rates. De la Rúa knew that by reducing
taxes little could be achieved and he also did not wanted to drop the Peso’s peg to the dollar, a policy that
have been adopted in order to stabilize Argentina’s currency. Although it was difficult to attract funding
through the markets, a solution was found when the IMF signed a loan of $7.2 billion to Argentina.
Furthermore, government also proceeded to consecutive tax increases which made matters even worse as
the tax rates were already high.
During 2000 the decline of the economy kept on, and one year later, the new minister of economy tried to
reduce government expenditures, a move that infuriated the people and led to protests. After several
resignations of members of the coalition government and the new minister of economy, signing as successor
minister Domingo Cavallo for whom his stance against the convertibility law was known, led to bank runs.
Cavallo’s public statements regarding the convertibility law later led to the downgrade of Argentina’s credit
rating. Argentina’s government continued to finance its debt by borrowing at high interest rates, and it also
used debt swaps to transfer some payments into the future and reduce debt repayments in the short run.
Furthermore, it signed another loan of $22 billion with the IMF after agreeing in taking austerity measures,
and situation seemed to get even worse for its economy. In December 2001, Argentine banks froze deposits,
and Argentina was getting into a deep depression; people started demonstrations known as cacerolazos as
they were banging casserole pots and pans. Things were deteriorating as IMF stopped giving any further
installments of the loan as Argentina could not keep up with the appropriate measures of austerity and was
unable to attract funding from international markets as well.
The severity of the situation in Argentina was even reflected on the political field with several reshuffles;
eventually, President Adolfo Rodríguez Saá decided to default on the country’s public debt of $50 billion
to foreign investors. Following Rodríguez in presidency, President Duhalde, proceeded in a series of
measures after the default in an attempt to ease the situation. First and most importantly, Duhalde
abandoned the Peso’s peg to the Dollar, and as a consequence Peso devalued. After the end of the
convertibility system he proceeded to confiscation of Dollar reserves and to pesofication of the Dollar bank
deposits, loans and legal contracts; something that turned out to be beneficial for debtors but not for
24
creditors and people with savings. In addition, he introduced new taxes and also doubled penalties for
employers who fired employees.
The first two years after the reform were the most difficult for Argentina, as its GDP decreased by 5.5% in
2001 and by 10.9% in 2002. Unemployment reached to the unprecedented level of 23.6% and real wages
and sales declined as well (23.6% and 26% respectively) while at the same time inflation reached 41%.
Several companies declared bankruptcy, and others faced major problems, among them Aerolineas
Argentinas, Argentina’s largest airline company who was forced to cancel all international flights. Finally,
the pesofication affected mostly banks and financial institutions. However, economy was not the only sector
which suffered the terrible consequences of the crisis; people were starving as poverty rate had reached
58% in 2002 and they were protesting. It is noteworthy that Argentine agricultural products were not
accepted by some countries because of fears that they could be damaged because of the chaos.
Economy started recovering after 2002 as can be seen in figures 1 and 2. After Duhalde managed to stabilize
the situation he called for elections; the successor president was Néstor Kirchner. After all, the devaluation
of the currency succeeded in making imports expensive and exports cheap; Argentina was once again
competitive. It has to be noted that things also improved due to the excessive rise in the price of soy beans.
After the devaluation, government tried to support import substitution and improved its tax collection
system. Argentina quickly created a huge trade surplus that was the main reason for a great inflow of dollars
and a large increase in its foreign currency reserves. By trying to build again its foreign exchange reserves
by buying Dollars, Argentina could cause inflation; to stop this trend the central bank started to sell treasury
letters. Argentina, eventually, used the foreign exchange reserves it collected to repay the IMF in 2006.
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Argentinian Unemployment vs Inflation
Unemployment rate Inflation
Figure 4; Source: CIA World Factbook
25
As can be seen in figure 2, Argentina faced some economic problems during 2004, when the increased
industrial demand caused an energy crisis. However, it again managed to recover on the next year. Finally,
the world economic crisis of 2008 is apparent in both figures 1 and 2 as it is clear the increase in
unemployment rate and the decrease in Argentina’s growth rate, which reached 0.9% in 2009.
3.5.1 Lessons to be drawn from the drop of the Dollar Peg
The case of Argentina is surely a precedent that can teach us a lot of lessons about a possible exit of Greece
from the Eurozone. The two incidents share a lot in common. On the one hand Argentina, who had its
currency pegged to the Dollar, faced an economic crisis partly because of its outstanding debt (50.8% of
GDP) with severe consequences for the employment, the poverty and its growth. And on the other hand
Greece, which faces a crisis now that was triggered by the credit crisis of 2008; a crisis that was also caused
by Greece’s huge sovereign debt (189.48% of GDP) and led to large increases in unemployment and
negative growth rates. Greece has, just like Argentina, lost its ability to exercise monetary policy as it is a
member of a monetary union and it also tried to get help from the IMF just like Argentina did. After all, it
is not at all unrealistic to say that Argentina’s past could be Greece’s future. Although Greece faces a much
more severe crisis than Argentina, it could be the case, for Greece too, that by defaulting on its huge
sovereign debt and by getting out of the Eurozone and regaining its right of exercising monetary policy to
manage to create an export surplus and of course to become again competitive. Surely we have to keep in
mind the problems that Argentina faced after its devaluations. But maybe we should decide what kind of
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Argentinian Real GDP growth rate
Real GDP growth rate
Figure 5; Source: CIA world factbook
26
recovery we want to achieve. It is clear that the strategy of the IMF did not succeed in Argentina ten years
ago and made things even more difficult for the Argentines; and even if it would succeed this would not
happen as quickly as it happened after the devaluation but after years of austerity. There is some criticism
when people parallel the case of Argentina to that of Greece. People tend to be cautious because of the
differences the two countries have in their economies, as Argentina was a large exporting, developing
country while Greece is mostly an importer, and because of the differences of the economic environment
now and back then; we must not overlook the fact that Argentina managed to recover in a booming
economic environment, while Greece faces a crisis in an economic environment where most countries face
problems with their economies too. They are not few those who believe that if Greece would default on its
debt then it would surely damage the relations with its international and domestic creditors; but taking into
account that Argentina defaulted on its debt and after 4 years managed to receive some major loans from
the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank is encouraging. Perhaps paying off the IMF
played an important role for Argentina. The critics of a Grexit also use as an argument the huge inflation
that the introduction of a new currency and its devaluation would cause; but as we can see in the Argentina’s
case which had a more unstable economy than that of Greece’s, an “unorthodox” inflationary policy that
targets in growth may be more successful than any other policy. Of course, the first two years may be
difficult with a great inflation but after starting to recover, with the appropriate policies, a stabilization of
the economy is not impossible.
3.6 Icelandic Crisis of 2008
In 2008 Iceland, faced major problems with its economy. It was a banking crisis that led to the collapse of
the three largest privately owned commercial banks. Everything started because of the inability of the three
banks (Glitnir, Landbanki, and Kaupthing) to refinance their debts. The debt of the three banks amounted
to €50 billion, a number extremely high related to the Icelandic GDP of €8.5 billion. But how is it possible
the banks of a country of 321,857 people to swell to such an extent?
Because Iceland is a small economy, its banks had to sign loans on the interbank lending market and accept
deposits from other countries in order to expand. At the same period households also took large amounts
of debt, and the whole situation led to inflation. Inflation increased even more when the central bank of
Iceland tried to increase liquidity of the banks by printing new money and reached to 14% in the end of
2008. Consequently the central bank held interest rates high (15.5%), much higher than the interest rates in
the Eurozone, something that motivated investors from abroad to bring their deposits to Iceland. The
increase in the supply of the Icelandic Κrónur was huge and a bubble was created. Due to the credit crisis
of 2008, Icelandic banks found it difficult to make loans, a situation that made it difficult for them to meet
their obligations to their creditors. They also could not turn to the central bank as a lender of last resort
27
because Icelandic central bank was much smaller and it could not guarantee their payments. As a result the
only solution was to let banks collapse.
The immediate effect of the collapse was the job loss for all the bank employees, and the bankruptcy of
several firms. Things were also difficult for importers, as Icelandic government restricted foreign currency
for a variety of products. Iceland also faced a huge increase in its unemployment rate, from 1% in 2007 to
8% in 2009. Debt repayments became pretty difficult and costly, and as a result many people lost their
homes due to outstanding mortgages. Nevertheless, the crisis did not only affect Iceland; there were bad
consequences for the countries of the depositors as well.
In September 2009, Icesave bill 1 was the first plan between Iceland, the Netherlands and the Great Britain,
about the deposits, but finally it ended with the disagreement of the three parties and Britain’s and
Netherlands’ threat of blocking the IMF’s aid package. After that, Iceland voted for a 2nd plan, known as
Icesave bill 2; but President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson declared that he would not sign for the bill and called
for a referendum. The referendum was held in Iceland in January 2010, to decide about the loan guarantees
to Britain and to the Netherlands (€3.8 billion); 98.10% of the people who voted, voted against the loan
guarantees. In short, people did not want to pay for the banks’ mistakes. Finally, a third proposition was
made under the name Icesave bill 3, and a second referendum rejected it again with 58.9% of votes against
it. Eventually the case was transferred to the courts, where EFTA court cleared Iceland of all the charges.
In the end of 2010 Iceland started recovering at a steady pace as it managed to decrease its unemployment
although not even closely to the pre-crisis levels, and have a positive growth rate. IMF which was
summoned from the start of the crisis claimed that the recovery was a result of its austerity measures and
successful policies. However, if we take a closer look at Iceland’s macroeconomic facts we will find out
that Iceland’s recovery is not as successful as IMF claims it is. After the collapse of the banks, Icelandic
government split the banks in national lines, something that left Iceland with banks unable to provide
banking services. Furthermore, Iceland keeps using capital controls that were implemented during the crisis
in order to sustain a stable exchange rate, and also the IMF’s policy of high interest rates severely contracted
private investment. Finally, Iceland faced an 11% GDP decrease after 2008, and saw its debt to increase at
unprecedented levels.
3.6.1 Lessons to be drawn from the Icelandic Incident
The Icelandic crisis of 2008 does not share much with the Greek crisis, as the main reasons of the two crises
are completely different. It could be stated that Iceland shares more in common to what happened recently
in Cyprus. However, we could derive some lessons from the situation in Iceland that could be useful for
28
the situation in Greece. Maybe one of the most wise decisions of the Icelandic government was to take into
account firstly the needs of its people and then of its creditors. Of course rejecting to guarantee the deposits
of foreign investors was a necessity but going into a referendum to decide the country’s course was a wise
decision. Another decision that helped the country to recover was the “nationalization” of the three
collapsed banks; it was not literally a nationalization but an emergency legislation as now two of the three
banks are private again. In contrast, in Greece, the total cost of aid and liquidity measures and the capital
received by the domestic banks from the Greek governments over the years amounts to €145 billion;
without of course any kind of nationalization. This is money that Greek people are required to pay as it is
charged to the public budget and increase public debt. In addition, the fund’s austerity measures had some
positive impacts on the Icelandic economy but this happened after only two years. After three years of far
more severe austerity measures, Greek economy did not show any signs of recovery and faces about 3 times
the unemployment of Iceland in 2008. So conclusively, the lessons we can derive from the Iceland’s
incident are basically four. Having a national currency is necessary, as its devaluation can revivify the
economy through exports. Secondly, letting banks fail and not transferring their bills on to the people may
turn out to be positive for the economy. Thirdly, using referendums in order to take important national
decisions is important as it is more democratic and it can lead to social stability and less public reactions.
And finally, capital controls may be necessary at the start of the introduction of a new Drachma to avoid
capital flight.
3.7 Meta-summary of historical parallels
In order to sum-up, the following meta-study table contains some important indicators of the historical
parallels that were examined.
Table 3. Meta-data summary table
Country
Devaluation
Change in
Unemployment
Rate after two
years after the
breakup
Inflation Rate
after two years
after the breakup
Quick recovery
after the breakup
Austria - - 134% (peak) No
Hungary - - 98% (peak) No
Czech - -0.3% 7.86% Yes
Slovakia 10% 0.9% 7.21% Yes
U.S.A. 59.06% -4% 2.2% Yes
Russia - 2.9% 840% No
29
Estonia - 5.1% 89.8% Yes
Argentina 72.2% -2.2% 13.4% Yes
Iceland 50% -0.6% 4% Yes
As we can see most of the cases suffered from high inflation rates after the breakups and great devaluations;
the latter though was part of the economic policies of the countries. Most countries managed to quickly
recover after the breakup and decrease their unemployment rate. We cannot say the same for Russia and
Estonia though, as the Soviet Union had a unique and different political regime.
30
CHAPTER 4 The Hellenic Crisis and the Troika The next section will contain a brief overview of the Greek sovereign debt crisis and a comparison of the
expectations of the Troika for Hellas and the actual data after the implementation of the measures. More
specifically, the data are taken from the five reviews of the EC for Greece (1st economic adjustment program
for Greece) and the two reviews for the 2nd adjustment program for Greece.
4.1 The Hellenic Crisis
The Greek economy was an indebted economy, in terms of public debt, most of the years after the
establishment of the sovereign Greek state in 1830. However, the levels of government debt were always
sustainable, at least until the 1980s. The situation deteriorated when Andreas Papandreou of the socialist
party PASOK (PanHellenic Socialistic Movement), was elected Prime Minister in 1981. Andreas
Papandreou ushered a new era of fiscal policy, by targeting the increase in the income of the average
household and creating new jobs in public organizations; he managed to do this by extensive borrowing
from the markets and by increasing public debt. The new fiscal policy which aimed at raising the living
standards of Greek people in conjunction with agricultural and infrastructure subsidies coming from the
EU which were aimed to the convergence of European countries led to an excessive increase in public debt.
The situation got even worse after Greece was accepted as a member of the Eurozone, as this stabilized, at
least temporarily its economy, and made creditors more optimistic. Greece could borrow money at pretty
low rates, its 10-year bond spreads fell by 18% in the period 1993-1999. The misperception of convergence
of the European economies was strengthened through agreements such as the Stability and Growth Pact.
The agreement was imposing to the Eurozone members limits on their public debt levels (60% of GDP)
and on their public deficits (3% of GDP); members that would not comply with these requirements would
face sanctions i.e. fines of up to 0.5% of GDP. Nevertheless, because of the difficulty of most countries to
comply with those requirements, no country was ever sanctioned. Greek governments continued borrowing
from the markets benefiting from the low interest rates due to investor’s confidence; however money was
intended to finance current consumption and not productive investments that would create revenues to repay
the debt. Conclusively, the great debt accumulation was partly a result of politicians planning only in the
short run and not in the long run and partly because of corruption, as Greek politicians were being bribed
by German corporations in order to buy their equipment and tax evasion. Currently, politicians like A.
Tsochantzopoulos are being prosecuted by the Greek courts.
The credit crisis in 2008-2009 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a series of events and
difficulties for several European economies. The situation for Greece was worsened when the new Prime
Minister George Papandreou publicly announced that the budget deficit was underreported by the previous
government. The underreporting started by Prime Minister C. Simitis who bribed Goldman Sachs in order
to change the numbers so that Greece would be able to enter the Euro-zone and continued by the next
31
government of C. Karamanlis who underreported the Olympic Games of 2004 budget. This immediate
increase in reported deficit from 6.7% to 12.7% led to the downgrade of the credit rating of Greece by Fitch.
Due to fears of a Greek default, G. Papandreou introduced a series of budget cuts. After what happened,
market lost its confidence to Greece, something that increased the Greek yield spreads and made future
borrowing really costly. On April 2010, George Papandreou without even informing Greek people sought
help from his EU partners, the ECB and the IMF. Fearing a possible disorderly Greek default, as it could
be contagious and dangerous even for the whole union, the Eurozone decided to help Greece in May 2010.
A three-year bailout package of €110 billion was agreed for Greece; the Eurozone countries contributed the
€80 billion while the IMF contributed the rest. It is noteworthy, that the treaty of Lisbon includes a so called
no-bail out clause; it is article 125. More specifically, this article states: “The Union shall not be liable for
or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies
governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial
guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume
the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed
by public law, or public undertakings of another Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial
guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project.”. The same clause is part of the Maastricht treaty
as well, in its article 104b, which states “The Community shall not be liable for or assume the commitments
of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or
public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint
execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central
governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law or public
undertakings of another Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint
execution of a specific project. ”; meaning that it is illegal for a country to assume the debts of another.
Arnold and Lemmen (2001) state that if EU and ECB try to rescue an indebted government, its idiosyncratic
default risk will change in a combination of systematic and inflation risk. At the same time, a new European
mechanism, called European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was created in order to provide funding to
countries which were facing problems. Greece had to introduce a series of austerity measures and budget
cuts in order to accept the bailout package. The aim of these measures were to decrease Greece’s deficit by
11% by 2013. More specifically, the measures aimed at reducing government expenditures, fight tax
evasion and increase competitiveness of the Greek economy through large wage cuts. Furthermore, they
tried to increase government revenues by raising taxes such as income taxes, average value-added tax, and
implementation of excise taxes on tobacco, fuel and alcohol; another great objective was of course to fight
tax evasion. In addition, the program included privatization of Greek public sector companies in an attempt
to raise €50 billion. The ECB tried to make matters easier for Greece by announcing the purchase of
European countries’ (mostly Greek) bonds in the secondary market and by providing liquidity to the Greek
commercial banks by repurchase agreements. It has to be noted that three years after the measures, the IMF
32
announced on the first week of June 2013 that its policy with the first bailout package was all wrong;
according to the publication in the Financial Times, the IMF published a scathing report saying that its
growth assumptions for Greece were too optimistic and that the debt restructuring should have occured
earlier. As C. Lagarde put it, 2011 was a “lost year”. The Troika admitted that using only austerity
measures and not trying to completely reform the Greek economy was wrong; and the only thing they
managed to do was to earn some time for Greece and turn the unsustainable debt into sustainable.
After the first package, things did not go as planned and the Greek economy was declining even more. The
troika officials decided that in conjunction with the severe austerity measures a PSI (Private Sector
Involvement) agreement was necessary. More specifically, for each privately held bond, 53.5% of its face
value was forgiven, 15% was exchanged for short-dated EFSF securities and the rest was exchanged for 20
new bonds with maturities of 11-30 years with an amortization of 5% per year. The new bonds are governed
under English law and have a coupon of 3.65%; however the coupon will be increased 2% for 2012-2015,
3% for 2015-2020 and 4.3% for 2020-2042; some kind of GDP indexed bonds. These are bonds that will
pay a higher coupon when GDP growth is higher, and a lower coupon when GDP growth is lower. It also
has to be mentioned that other securities that have to do with future GDP growth will be offered and they
will pay 1% if growth exceeds the anticipated levels. One of the biggest losers of the PSI were the Greek
pension funds, since they have lost, because of the haircut, €11.92 billion; however the loss is even larger
if we take into account the loss of value of the new Greek government bonds. Greek private banks were
also members of the top bondholders group, as it can be seen in figure 6, however the recapitalizations
covered most of their losses. Therefore, on October 2011 along with a second bailout package of €130
billion and more austerity measures, the haircut of 53.5% was officially agreed on the Greek government
bonds. This strategy aimed at decreasing the Greek debt by €110 billion. The situation was so bad,
especially taking into account that during the campaign period, George Papandreou told people that money
existed while it did not, that people started protesting across the country as the austerity measures resulted
in numerous job losses and tax increases. Unemployment rate increased during the period 2010-2011 from
12% to 17.3%. On November 2011, Prime Minister George Papandreou resigned after announcing a
referendum, in order for Greek people to decide about the second bailout package he was under international
pressure in fears of a Grexit. The transitional coalition government was formed with Loukas Papadimos as
the new Prime Minister. At the same time Greece was downgraded to junk level by Fitch. This second
bailout package along with the PSI became active in March 2012, and it aimed to cover Greece’s needs
until 2015, when Greece should be ready, if things were to go according to the plan, to attract funds from
the markets. Meantime, elections in Greece did not have a clear result, and on the second round of elections
in June 2012 a coalition government had to be formed; the new government was consisted of the political
parties N.D. (New Democracy), PASOK (PanHellenic Socialistic Movement) and DIM.AR (Democratic
Left) with Antonis Samaras as Prime Minister. Greece faced another recession in 2012 and it failed to
implement the planned scheme, and as a result the Troika decided to delay the next disbursement of €31.5
33
billion. Greece went back on schedule after negotiations with the Troika and it received the next
disbursements.
Today, more austerity measures have been implemented to Greece and they are progressively worsening
the situation as more firms are going bankrupt every year and more people are laid off. It has to be noted
that Greeks are so frustrated with the whole situation and there even have been talks about democratic
deficit especially after the recent closure of the ERT (Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation). The Fund’s
austerity measures had not only economic impact in Greece but a serious social impact as well. People go
into public protests and strikes and desperate people, unable to repay their debt or taxes even commit
suicide; there has been a rise in suicide rate of 26% in 2013. Finally, another impact was the rise of right-
wing neo-Nazi parties that even managed to enter the Greek parliament with a percentage of votes of 6.97%.
And finally, another great issue is the brain drain; as young people and scientists who are unable to find a
job inside Greece because of the youth unemployment of 60%, are forced to leave the country.
Figure 6; Source: Barclay’s Capital, Bank of Greece, EU, IMF, Company reports, Media reports; In Others are mostly included private investors and financial institutions with a percentage of bonds of 1 or lower.
4.2 Data and Methodology
What I will do now is a series of regression analyses in order to find out the relationship between first, the
Greek and the German 10 year bond yields, second, the relationship between the Greek yield spreads and
the Greek debt; third, the relationship between the Greek CDS spreads and the debt to GDP ratio, the
German CDS spreads and also the Open Market Operations of the ECB. Moreover, I will try to find out if
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Top bondholders of Greek government bonds (percentage of bonds)
34
Okun’s law is applicable to Greece. Finally, I will try to find the relationship between the credit rating of
Greece, by the three rating agencies (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch), and the Greek over the German 10 year bond
yield spread. The same regression analysis will be also run to examine the relationship between the Greek
CDS spreads and the credit rating of Greece by the three credit rating agencies. All the data are gathered
from Bloomberg and the ECB database and the computer software which is used for all the regressions is
the Stata12 SE.
On the first analysis I will compare the yield to maturity of the 10 year Hellenic bonds to the yield to
maturity of the 10 year German bonds. The examination will start on January 2010, before the first bailout
package and will end with the yields of the end of 2012, so nine months after the Greek haircut. The
dependent variable is the 10 year Greek bond yields to maturity and the independent variable is the yield
to maturity of the 10 year German bonds. What I expect to find is a negative relationship between the two
yields as when countries like the PIIGS face problems most risk averse investors try to limit their risk by
investing in German bonds. The regression equation that will be run is the following:
𝐺𝑟𝑏 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 ∗ 𝐺𝑒𝑟𝑏 + 𝑒 (1)
Where: Grb= 10yr Greek bond yield to maturity
Gerb= 10yr German bond yield to maturity
The next analysis aims at finding out the relationship between the Greek over the German yield spreads
and the Greek debt. The spreads constitute the difference of the Greek 10 year bond yields from the
German 10 year bond yields. As far as the debt is concerned, the debt to GDP ratio data will be used. A
six-year period will be examined from 2008 to 2013. The regression equation that will be examined is the
following:
𝑆 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 + 𝑐 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡2 + 𝑒 (2)
Where: S=Greek over German yield spread
debt=Debt to GDP ratio
debtsqrd=(Debt to GDP)^2
The debt squared term is inserted in order to capture the non-linear effect of the debt to the spreads. More
specifically, the term is used to measure the credit rationing effect. The expected relationship between the
Greek spreads and the Greek debt is positive. As the more debt is accumulated by Greece the more difficult
35
and costly becomes for Greece to borrow more money. However the same result is not expected for the
relationship between the Greek yield spreads and the debt squared. As the more the Greek debt increases,
the more reluctant the lenders become to lend money as they already maximize their profits; and a market
imperfection is created.
The third regression that will be run will aim at finding out how the Greek debt along with the German
CDS spreads relate to the Greek CDS spreads. But most importantly the regression will be run in order to
find out how helpful was for the Greek economy the increase of liquidity by the ECB. The data that will be
used are from the period of 2008 to 2011. The regression equation that will be examined is the following:
𝐶𝐷𝑆 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 ∗ 𝑂𝑀𝑂 + 𝑐 ∗ 𝑔𝑒𝑟𝐶𝐷𝑆 + 𝑑 ∗ 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 + 𝑒 (3)
Where: CDS=Greek CDS spreads
OMO=Open Market Operations
gerCDS=German CDS spreads
Debt=Greek Debt to GDP ratio
CDS spreads are a good measure of risk, so finding their relationship with the liquidity of the market is a
good way to find out how the ECB monetary policy affects this risk. The relationship we expect to find
between the Greek CDS spreads and the Open Market Operations is negative while the relationship of the
Greek CDS spreads to the German CDS spreads and the Greek debt is expected to be positive.
The final analysis constitutes an attempt to find out if the Okun’s law is applicable to Greece’s economics.
The data that will be used are taken from the period 2005-2013. More specifically, the 3-month change in
unemployment rate along with the 3-month GDP change rate are used. The regression equation is the
following:
edybadu * (4)
Where: du=3-month change in unemployment rate
dy=3-month percentage change in GDP
36
Okun’s law is the observed relationship between unemployment and losses in a country’s production. What
I expect to find is a negative relationship between the two variables. The higher the coefficient (b) of dy
the stronger the relationship.
On the following regression analyses, I will try to find the relationship between the credit rating of Greece,
by the three rating agencies (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch), and the Greek over the German 10 year bond yield
spread. The data that will be examined are from the period of 2004-2013. The regression equations are the
following:
111 _* eratMbaS (5)
222 _* eratSPbaS (6)
333 _* eratFbaS (7)
Where: S=Greek over German bond yield spread
M_rat=credit rating of Moody’s rating agency
SP_rat=credit rating of Standard and Poor’s rating agency
F_rat=credit rating of Fitch rating agency
In order to convert the credit rating into a quantitative variable, I gave a number from 1 to 23 at each rating
level of the three different credit rating scales; starting from Aaa/AAA=1, Aa1/AA+=2 etc.. The three scales
along with the numbering of each rating level can be found on table 28 at the Appendix C of the thesis.
Among the expected results is a positive relationship between the credit rating of Greece and the Greek
over the German bond yield spread.
The same regression analysis will be also run to examine the relationship between the Greek CDS spreads
and the credit rating of Greece by the three credit rating agencies. Once again the data that will be used are
for the period 2004-2011. The three regression equations are the following:
111 _* eratMbaCDS (8)
222 _* eratSPbaCDS (9)
37
333 _* eratFbaCDS (10)
Where: CDS=Greek CDS spread
M_rat=credit rating of Moody’s rating agency
SP_rat=credit rating of Standard and Poor’s rating agency
F_rat=credit rating of Fitch rating agency
Once again as CDS spreads are a measure of risk, we expect a positive relationship between the change in
the credit ratings and the change in the CDS spreads. The same numbering is used here too, in order to
convert credit ratings into quantitative variables.
4.3 Results
The following table show the main results of the first regression.
Table 4. Regression analysis of Greek and German 10yr bonds yields to maturity
eGerbbaGrb *
Coefficient Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mean Standard
deviation
Greek Bond
YtM (Grb)
- - - - 5.52 37.1 17.29 8.41
b -8.48 0.33 -25.76 0.00 1.16 3.49 2.34 0.67
a 37.11 0.80 46.35 0.00 - - - -
2R 0.46
As we can conclude from table 4, both coefficients are statistically significant. When the German bond
yield to maturity increases by 1% the Greek bond yield to maturity decreases by 8.47%. We can also
conclude that there is a negative correlation between the two yields to maturity. This negative correlation
is conspicuous at the scatterplot that follows (figure 7) which clearly suggests the negative relationship
between the two variables. We could state from the negative trend of the plots that the relationship between
the variables is strong. The great difference though between the two yields can be seen by looking at the
minimum and maximum values of the observations. The exceptionally high yields to maturity of the Greek
38
bonds is a result of turbulent situation in Hellas. After running a skewness/kurtosis test (the results can be
seen on table 17 of the Appendix) for normality instead of a typical Jarque Bera test because this specific
dataset is of medium size, we can conclude that our residuals are non-normally distributed. If we take a
look of the data we will find out that the Greek bond yield to maturity continued its increasing course until
February of 2012, exactly one month before the Greek PSI and the exchange of the bonds (figure 8). From
the summary table we can derive that the Hellenic bonds’ yields to maturity have a much greater standard
deviation because of their large fluctuations. So we can conclude from the data that there is an important
relationship between the economic situation in Greece and what happens in Germany. It could be the case
that when the situation in Greece becomes worse and the Greek bond yields increase, in conjunction with
the bad economic situation in the other indebted economies (PIIGS), the German bonds are seen as “safe
haven”. More specifically, a 1% lower German government bond yield due to safe haven effects will result
in 8.5% higher Greek government bond yield. This as Jens Boysen-Hogrefe (2013) mentions, leads many
investors who prefer to invest in government debt to turn to the German bonds and causing their yields to
fall to unusually low levels. He also states in his article that these low yields have saved the German
government over €80 billion. Of course the bond yields are affected by the ECB’s interest policies and the
low business cycles dynamics but on the same article Jens Boysen-Hogrefe supports that the German yields
would not be so low if the other European economies had not faced any economic problems. Therefore, it
is true that economies like Germany and France made money because of the crisis and the bad economic
situation of the other European countries. This money could have been spent to support those indebted
economies but of course it was not. Therefore, would it be an exaggeration to say that the northern
economies like Germany take advantage of the crisis in economies like Greece?
39
Figure 7; Regression analysis scatterplot.
Figure 8; Source: Bloomberg.
010
20
30
40
grb
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5gerb
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10yr Greek and German bond YtM
GrB GerB
40
The results of the second regression are the following:
Table 5. Regression analysis of Greek yield spreads to Greek debt
edebtcdebtbaS 2**
Coefficients Standard
Errors
t-Stat p-
value
Min Max Mea
n
St.
Deviat
ion
Greek over German
bond yield Spread (S)
- - - - 0.03 0.35 0.94 0.90
b 1.56 0.12 13.3
5
0.00 1.12 1.79 1.48 0.23
c -0.45 0.40 -
11.28
0.00 1.26 3.22 2.24 0.66
a -1.20 0.08 -
14.4
0
0.00 - - - -
2R 0.43
The estimation of the equation 2 was done by using non-linear ordinary least squares (OLS). Table 8 shows
the estimated coefficients, their standard errors and the associated R². All the coefficients are statistically
significant. The coefficients imply that when debt to GDP ratio increases by 1% the Greek spreads also
increase by 156 basis points; a relationship that was expected. The same is not true for the debt to GDP
squared term for which the estimated coefficient is equal to -0.45. This negative relationship captures the
debt rationing effect. Although, Greek debt may increasing along with the Greek yield spreads, investors
show a reluctance in lending more money despite the high yields. Table shows a summary of the statistics
of the variables. What is noteworthy here is the difference between the minimum and maximum values
(range) of the spreads; something that can be seen in figure 9. The correlation of the two variables, as it
was expected is high. A Jarque Bera test was run to see if the data match the normal distribution. The
summary of the residuals can be seen in table 20 of the Appendix. By checking the data and the histogram
of the residuals, we conclude that the data show signs of right skewness and kurtosis. The Jarque Bera test
gives us a value of 463; so that we can reject the hypothesis that the residuals are normally distributed.
41
Figure 9, Source: Data taken from Bloomberg
The results of the third regression follow:
Table 6. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to OMO, Greek Debt and German CDS spreads
eDebtdgerCDScOMObaCDS ***
Coefficie
nts
Standard
Errors
t-Stat p-
value
Min Max Mean St. Dev.
Greek CDS
spreads (CDS)
- - - - 0.22 34.02 4.65 4.68
b -5.27e-06 4.80e-07 -10.99 0.00 180433 910450 592723 145993
c 14.23 0.51 28.12 0.00 1.12 1.70 1.36 0.20
d 3.05 0.37 8.24 0.00 0.062 0.99 0.59 0.33
a -13.90 0.41 -33.36 0.00 - - - -
2R 0.82
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013
Greek over German yield spreads
42
The estimation of regression equation (3) was done by using linear OLS. The estimated coefficients, their
standard errors and their R² are displayed in table 6. From their p-values we can conclude that all the
coefficients are statistically significant. Furthermore, when the German CDS spreads increase by 1% the
Greek CDS spreads also increase by 3%. Moreover, there is also a strong positive relationship of the Greek
CDS spreads with the Greek debt as it was expected. Finally the relationship of the Greek CDS spreads to
the open market operations of the ECB is negative as it was expected; however the relationship is not as
strong as it was expected to be. Meaning that the ECB’s monetary policies did not strongly affect the risk
of the Greek debt. A Jarque Bera test was run in order to test the normality of the residuals, and gave a
value of 153.4; a relatively high Jarque Bera value which implies that the residuals are non-normally
distributed. However if we take a look of the histogram of the residuals, we may conclude that they are
normally distributed with a few only outliers. Removing the outliers was not considered as an option as
they contain valuable information.
The results of the fourth regression analysis are the following:
Table 7. Regression analysis of % change of Unemployment rate to % change of GDP
edybadu *
Coeffic
ients
Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mean St.
Dev.
% Change in
unemployment rate (du)
- - - 0.025 -1.13 2.53 0.51 0.93
b -0.13 0.55 -2.35 0.001 -7.09 8.07 0.14 2.74
a 0.53 0.15 3.55 - - -
2R 0.14
As it can be concluded from table 7, there is a negative relationship between unemployment and GDP
decrease in Greece. The Okun’s estimator takes a value of -0.13 and it is statistically significant. The
unemployment level is by 14% explained by the existing changes in Greek product. After running the
regression, the Breusch-Pagan test was run and it proved that the residuals show signs of heteroscedasticity.
Moreover, after running the skewness-kurtosis test the null hypothesis of normality was not rejected. The
Darbin-Watson test also proved that there are no signs of autocorrelation in the model.
43
On tables 8, 9 and 10, the results of the regression analyses of the credit rating and the Greek over the
German 10 year bond yield spread are shown:
Table 8. Regression analysis of Greek bond yield spreads to Moody’s credit ratings
111 _* eratMbaS
Coefficients Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mean St. Dev.
Greek over German
10yr bond yield spread
(S)
- 0.08 35.3 0.06 8.2
1b 1.07 0.01 83.2 0.00 5 21 9.49 6.56
1 -4.47 0.15 -30.2 0.00 - - - -
2R 0.73
Table 9. Regression analysis of Greek bond yield spreads to S&P’s credit ratings
222 _* eratSPbaCDS
Coeffic
ients
Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mea
n
St.
Dev.
Greek over German bond yield
spread (S)
- - - - 0.08 35.3 5.65 8.2
2b 1.42 0.01 110.29 0.00 5 23 9.68 5.26
2 -8.05 0.14 -56.98 0.00 - - -
2R 0.83
44
Table 10. Regression analysis of Greek bond yield spreads to Fitch’s credit rating
333 _* eratFbaS
Coefficie
nts
Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mean St.
Dev.
Greek over German bond
yield spread (S)
- - - - 0.081 35.3 5.65 8.2
3b 1.49 0.01 95.68 0.00 5 22 9.25 4.87
3 -8.12 0.16 -49.95 0.00 - - - -
2R 0.78
Table 8 shows the results of the regression of the Greek over the German bond yield spreads to the Moody’s
credit rating for Greece. The estimation was done by using OLS. As we can conclude from their p-values,
all the coefficients are statistically significant. A high R² indicates that the bond spreads are by 75%
explained by the credit rating. After conducting a Jarque Bera test, I conclude that the residuals are not
normally distributed. There are also signs of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation after checking for both
with a Breusch Pagan and a Durbin Watson test respectively. Table 9 shows the results of the regression of
the Greek over the German bond yield spreads to the S&P’s credit rating for Greece. The estimation again
was done by using OLS, all the coefficients are statistically significant and the R² is even higher. The credit
rating coefficient ( 2b ) is 1.49 and proves a positive relationship between S and SP_rat. The Durbin Watson
and the Breusch Pagan tests showed signs of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity respectively. The Jarque
Bera test, show signs of non-normality of the residuals. Finally, table 10 shows the results of the regression
of the Greek bond yield spread to the Fitch credit rating. The regression was done by OLS and the main
results are the same: positive relationship between the two variables, high R², signs of heterscedasticity,
autocorrelation and non-normality of the residuals.
Finally, the results of the regression analyses of the Greek CDS spreads and the credit rating of the three
agencies can be seen on tables 11, 12 and 13:
45
Table 11. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to Moody’s credit rating
111 _* eratMbaCDS
Coefficients Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mean St. Dev.
Greek CDS
spread
(CDS)
- - - 10.62 4617.41 241.24 398.92
1b 115.91 0.90 128.9 0.00 5 20 6.44 3.26
1 -505.80 6.5 -77.88 0.00 - - - -
2R 0.90
Table 12. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to S&P’s credit rating
222 _* eratSPbaCDS
Coeffici
ents
Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mean St. Dev.
Greek CDS spread (CDS) - - - - 10.62 4617.41 241.24 398.92
2b 127.54 0.92 138.58 0.00 5 20 7.45 2.98
2 -708.35 7.38 -95.96 0.00 - - - -
2R 0.91
46
Table 13. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to Fitch’s credit rating
333 _* eratFbaCDS
Coefficie
nts
Standard
Errors
t-stat p-
value
Min Max Mean St. Dev.
Greek CDS spread (CDS) - - - - 10.62 4617.41 241.25 398.92
3b 152.38 1.18 129.15 0.00 5 18 7.07 2.48
3 -835.53 8.83 -94.56 0.00 - - - -
2R 0.90
Table 11, 12 and 13 show the results of the regression of Greek CDS spreads to Moody’s, S&P’s and Fitch’s
credit ratings respectively. The OLS method was used for the estimations. It clear from the three tables that
there is a strong positive relation between the credit ratings and the Greek CDS spreads. In all three
regressions R² is pretty high (0.90), meaning that the model explains most of the variability of the response
data around its mean. After testing for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, with the Breusch Pagan and
Durbin Watson tests respectively, signs of both were found. Moreover, there are signs of non-linearity of
the residuals after using the Jarque Bera test. The last three regressions show even more, how great is the
impact of a bad credit rating to the borrowing costs of Greece and also the risk of investing in the Greek
debt titles. More or less, being a member of the Eurozone, does not help Greece get a higher rating, or
decrease the costs of a lower rating.
47
4.4 Basic Indicators of the Greek Economy
Here are some important indicators of the Greek economy for the period 2007-2012:
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
General Government Revenue and Expenditure as % of GDP
General Government Revenue (% of GDP)
General government total expenditure (% ofGDP)
Figure 10; Source: IMF; the red colored parts indicate IMF staff estimates
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Greek Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
current account balance
Figure 11; Source: Eurostat
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% change in Unit Labor Costs
Unit Labor Costs (% change)
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Net external debt in % GDP-quarterly data
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter
4th quarter
Figure 13; Source: Eurostat Figure 12; Source: IMF
48
Figure 14; World Bank Data.
By taking a quick look at some basic indicators of the Greek economy, it can be concluded that although
the Greek economy faced a huge downturn in 2009, it surely started recovering after the implementation of
the austerity measures and the two rescue packages, however not in a way that can completely save the
Greek economy. More specifically, if we examine Greece’s government revenues and expenditure, we will
find out that although situation improved after 2009 the projections of the IMF for 2013 and 2014 are not
as optimistic as they were. It is obvious that the Troika were not anticipating things to be so difficult after
Greece got into the program; although the Greek deficit showed a downward trend from 2009 to 2011, it
increased again in 2012. One of the indisputable attainments of the Troika however, was the decrease of
the unit labor costs. However, the increased productivity did not, as it will be shown on the following
section, increased Greek competitiveness. Figure 14 is a combination of the points of the annual Greek CPI
rate and the annual Greek unemployment rate from 1988 to 2013, what is known as a Phillips Curve. It is
clear that for the last 25 years the Greek Phillips Curve has its typical form, as the negative relationship
between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate is apparent. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that the
difficulties that Greece faces and the severe situation in which it came after 2009 is mostly an impact of its
Phillips Curve of the Greek Economy
49
external borrowing. So the huge government debt would not be such an important issue if the debt was
domestic; a good example is Japan. It is clear that after 2009 external borrowing for Greece greatly
increased due to the two rescue packages.
Moreover, another important indicator of the Greek economy is the Government debt. As we can clearly
conclude from the above figure, a great increase of the Greek government debt took place in the period
1993-1996; and it was a result of the fiscal policy followed by Constantinos Mitsotakis who was Prime
Minister for the period 1990-1993, and was the politician who started external borrowing for Greece and
Andreas Papandreou who was his successor and started borrowing excessive amounts of money from the
markets to increase Greek consumption in order to win voters. The second great increase in Greek
government debt as can be perceived from the figure was in 2009 after the outbreak of the crisis. After
2009, we can see several increases in the Greek government debt, results of the two rescue packages, and
the shrinkage of the Greek economy. Some important remarks here are that firstly the PSI agreement was
not as successful as the Troika expected; in addition, the privatization could not so far collect the planned
revenues. On the other hand we should admit that after the announcements of the ECB and the optimistic
stance of the Troika for Greece, 10-year Greek government bond spreads have greatly decreased. As we
can see on figure 9, Greek spreads started increasing at the start of 2010 when Greek politicians of the
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
180.00%
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
General Government Gross Debt to GDP ratio
General Government Gross Debt (as % of GDP)
Figure 15; Source: IMF
50
government started the careless announcements and G. Papandreou revealed the higher deficit; and of
course after the agreement for the first bailout package. The great increase in the Greek spreads came at the
end of 2011 with the announcement of the second bailout package for Greece. The most turbulent period
was that of 2012 when Greece was also downgraded by Fitch even deeper than before into junk. Finally,
the spreads have greatly decreased at the start of 2013 when Greece showed its solemnity, adherence and
discipline to the austerity measures and when it was upgraded again to BBB at the credit rating scale.
4.5 Will the Troika succeed?
The next diagrams show a comparison of the Troika’s expectation about Greece and what really happened.
The data are taken from the five reports on the 1st adjustment program for Greece by the EC.
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP growth
1st review 3rd review 4th review 5th review realization
Figure 16; Source: 1st adjustment program for Greece, European Commission reviews 1-5; and IMF
51
It is clear from a first look of figures 16 and 17 that the Troika’s expectations on the first adjustment program
for Greece do not reflect not even close the reality. However, we have to take into account that all the
reviews have been conducted before the haircut of the Greek government bonds. It is notable that most
recent reviews reflect better the trend of the real data, but there are huge deviations, both for the growth
rate and the unemployment. By taking a closer look of the data, it is understood that when the Troika was
implementing the austerity measures was not aware of the actual intensity of the consequences of its
policies. As the report was conducted before the second rescue package and the PSI agreement, it is only
fair to examine only the data for 2011. The first review of the EC, was predicting in its macroeconomic
scenario a GDP shrinking rate of only 3% while at the same year Greece faced a shrinkage of 7.11%. The
fifth review is the one that is closest to reality as it was conducted in October of 2011; at the same time
when the haircut of the Greek bonds had been decided. The deviations are even larger for the Greek
unemployment rate, as not even the fifth review could predict an unemployment rate of 17.47% in 2011.
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Unemployment rate
1st review 3rd review 4th review 5th review realization
Figure 17; Source: 1st adjustment program for Greece, European Commission reviews 1-5; and IMF
52
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP growth rate
1st review 2nd review realizations
Figure 19; Source: 2nd adjustment program for Greece, European Commission reviews 1-2; IMF
Figure 18; Source: 2nd adjustment program for Greece, European Commission reviews 1-2; IMF
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Unemployment rate
1st review 2nd review realizations
53
It is obvious by taking a look at the figures of the second adjustment program for Greece that the
expectations of the macroeconomic scenarios are much closer to reality; especially the expectations of the
second review. Of course we should not underestimate the fact that those two reviews were conducted on
the end of 2012 and on the first quarter of 2013. The EC had the time, the data and all the information it
needed to assess the situation better and to achieve better estimations. The two reviews incorporated the
impacts of the new austerity measures, the second rescue package and of course the haircut. Nevertheless,
once again we can recognize deviations from reality; especially in the case of the unemployment rate, the
EC underestimated the negative impact of its program. Unemployment rate reached 24.24% in 2012 and
27.4% in 2013; these are unprecedented levels of unemployment for a European country. Moreover, if we
take into account the data published on June 2013 by the General Secretariat of Government Revenues, we
will find out that the Greek people and the Greek firms find it difficult to meet their tax liabilities; according
to the official data the outstanding debts to the state increased from €56,105,000,000 at the end of 2012 to
€59,774,229,887.97 on 2013. Two out of six millions of tax-payers owe taxes.
However, the true target of the Troika was from the beginning of the program the increase of
competitiveness of the Greek economy, in order to create a trade surplus by also decreasing imports.
The above figures present EC’s macroeconomic forecast for the annual percentage change in the value of
exports of goods and services of the Greek economy. It is quite obvious that the forecasts of the second
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Annual % change of exports of goods and services
1st review 2nd review3rd review 4th review5th review
Figure 20; Source: 1st Economic Adjustment Program for Greece, European Commission reviews 1-5
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Annual % change of exports of goods and services
1st review 2nd review
Figure 21; Source: 2nd Economic Adjustment Program for Greece, European Commission reviews 1-2
54
adjustment program for Greece are much more pessimistic. However, according to the formal data
presented by the IMF on its ex post evaluation of exceptional access under the 2010 Stand-By Arrangement
the estimated annual percentage change of exports of goods and services for Greece was 0.3% in 2011 and
-2.4% in 2012 and the projection for 2013 is an increase of 3%. Once again the EC underestimated the
negative impact of its policies and overestimated its probability of success. What we see in the Troika’s
reviews is a continuous shift of the Greek recovery at later dates. Heiner Flassbeck and Costas Lapavitsas
state in a paper for Rosa Luxemburg Foundation that the only way for the austerity policies of the Troika
to be successful is the creation of a trade deficit by Germany. It is impossible for the Greek economy to
recover by being thrifty when at the same time the exact same strategy is applied to Germany as well. So
the only way for the Greek economy to get back on track and be able to repay its debt by turning its current
account deficit into surplus is the adoption by Germany of the exact opposite policy. This problem was
thoroughly analyzed by Keynes (1929) and is known as the “transfer problem”
Conclusively, seeking help from an institution who does not have the appropriate experience in fighting
crises in a developed countries such as Greece and especially after three years of implemented measures
that did not have the expected success, maybe it is better for the Hellenic Republic to consider another way
in order to fight the crisis. It is clear now more than ever, that the policy implemented by the Troika did not
have the expected outcomes for the Greek economy, as not only Greece found it impossible to recover after
three years, but Greece is also worse off, as it faces no growth, larger unemployment and its government
debt increases with every new rescue package. The IMF supports that Greek debt will only be sustainable
if the Greek government manages to decrease it to 120% of GDP, something that looks unlikely with the
current data as Greece does not face the appropriate primary surplus. More specifically, Greece right now
may face a primary surplus, as the Greek government claims, but this is only large enough to cover part of
the interest; therefore until the primary surplus becomes large enough so that Greece can also cover part of
its amortization, the Greek debt will keep increasing every year. It is noteworthy that Greece’s interest
needs for 2013 are reaching €6.4 billion, while its primary surplus is only €2.55 billion; this means that
Greece will be able to repay only part of its interest. It is worth mentioning that the primary surplus of €2.55
billion that the Greek government claims it succeeded, is calculated without taking into account data such
as the profit refund of foreign central banks; calculating the surplus including this data, turns it into a
primary deficit of €3.25 billion. In addition, since the main problem for Greece is the structure of its debt,
which is mostly external, even if Greece had its own currency, a devaluation would only make the debt
more expensive. So Greece faces a situation in which, on the one hand by continuing on the path that the
Troika sets out and with the implementation of more austerity measures, things will get only more difficult
for its economy, and maybe after some years an exit from the Euro may seem the only solution, and on the
other hand, if Greece exits the Euro, introduce its own currency and proceed to devaluation will only make
matters worse. Therefore, it is pretty much straightforward that regardless of a Greek stay or exit, Greece
should restructure its debt, but this time, the restructuring of the debt has to be initiated by the borrower.
55
Furthermore, as the austerity measures are being implemented across the whole Europe, it will be
impossible for Greece to become competitive especially in relation to Germany. So the best solution as we
see it, is for Greece to proceed to an orderly default, an exit from the Eurozone and the introduction of a
new national currency.
It would not be an exaggeration to state that Greece’s entry in the Eurozone was a critical mistake from the
beginning. Of course becoming a member of the Eurozone helped Greece develop, but at what cost? It is
true that after Greece entered the Eurozone, it faced a growth rate of 4%, at the same time though, the
external borrowing increased by approximately 18%; so this development was a fictitious development. It
was a development, powered by loans, and targeted in the increase of consumption. The increase in the
borrowing was partly a result of the cheap funding, Greece could enjoy as a member of the Eurozone and
partly a result of the decrease of the monetary circulation that was imposed to Greece by the Eurozone,
while a same policy was not followed in the other member-countries. More specifically, the monetary
circulation faced a decrease in Greece from €7.7 billion in 2000 to €7.2 billion in 2001 (6.5% decrease);
while in 2002 the monetary circulation decreased in €5.4 billion (approximately 30% decrease from 2000).
It is noteworthy that the two devaluations of the Drachma before the entry made things even worse for the
Greek economy. Greece was after the entry a weak economy with a strong currency, a policy that improved
the exports of the strong economies like Germany but made things difficult for Greece. In 2000, the
Dollar/Drachma exchange rate was 365.40; the next year, when Greece introduced the Euro with an
exchange rate of 340.75 Drachmas per Euro, the Dollar/Euro exchange rate was 1.0493. Therefore, the
Dollar/Drachma exchange rate decreased to 357.54, which means an appreciation for the Greek currency.
It is important to mention that after the change of the currency with an exchange rate of 340.75 Drachmas
per Euro, the prices of products and services in Greece greatly increased as while economy had not become
any richer people were spending euro coins and banknotes without considering their much higher value. In
addition, upward rounding of prices was a common phenomenon as well. Moreover, signing the
Memorandum by the government of G. Papandreou was also the signing of concession of sovereignty of
Greece. Papandreou not only signed as collateral for the loans Greek public property but he did it under the
English law. To help the reader get a better picture of the situation after Greece entered the Eurozone, the
PPP conversion factor to market exchange ratio is shown on the next figure for the period 1998-2008.
56
Figure 22; Source: World Bank
Figure 22 depicts the situation in Greece after the introduction of the Euro. The PPP conversion factor to
market exchange ratio tells how many dollars are needed to buy one dollar’s worth of goods and services
in Greece; the upward trend is a result of the inflation created by the introduction of a strong currency in a
weak economy. It can be seen that the upward trend continued until 2008, and the outbreak of the financial
crisis. After 2008 the indicator decreased until it reached 0.93 in 2010, and it faced an increase again in
2011 when it reached 0.98.
Although, a Grexit may lead to the desired results, it might be the case that also the exit from the EU would
be necessary for the Greek economy to recover. According to the Treaty of Lisbon this is possible; Article
50 mentions: "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own
constitutional requirements". If a member of the EU decides to leave it first should notify the European
Council; after that an exit agreement would be negotiated with the leaving member and the Union. The
whole procedure may last for two years. It is a fact that twenty years ago Greece had a developed
agricultural sector, which constituted about 20% of the country’s GDP; it was a sector that was creating
surpluses. Everything changed with the Europeanization of Greece. It is true that EU gave a lot of subsidies
to Greek farmers, but most of these subsides were spent on consumption as most farmers were moving to
the cities and looking for jobs, increasing unemployment. Of course, Common Agricultural Policy played
an important role to the diminishing of the Greek agricultural sector, along with the trading restrictions such
as quotas and importing and exporting duties. Twenty years ago most Greeks had not much faith in the EU,
but this stance changed with policies like Integrated Mediterranean Programs (MPC) and Community
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
PPP Conversion Factor (GDP) to Market Exchange Ratio in Greece
57
Support Framework (CSF) later. These were programs that targeted in developing Greece and achieving
convergence with Europe. The fact though behind these projects was that for any amount of money that
was given to Greece as funding, Greece had to spend much more money and increase its borrowing. Most
of the companies that undertook public works funded by European projects like these, were French or
German. Therefore, EU was spending money in Greece using MPC programs or even by bribing Greek
politicians in order to finance its own corporations. It is not a coincidence that the huge public work of the
Eleutherios Venizelos airport was undertaken by German companies and the Rio-Antirrio Bridge was
constructed by Vinci, a French company; we can also consider the case of Siemens or the malfunctioning
submarines, and the list is really big. Finally, it should not be ignored that after an exit from the Eurozone,
Greece may face some problems with its EU membership anyway. Other members may think of Greece as
a member that disregards its commitments as Barry Eichengreen (2007) states.
4.5.1 A mathematical scenario
It would be pretty illustrative to construct a possible scenario of the repayment of the Greek debt, using the
assumptions made by the EC on its reviews of the adjustment program for Greece. The mathematical model
that will be used is taken from an IMF paper by Julio Escolano (2010). J. Escolano uses the following
equation (equation 22) in order to compute the appropriate constant per year primary balance (p*) in order
to reach a target debt ratio (d*) in N periods.
𝑝∗ =𝜆
(1+𝜆)−𝛮−1((1 + 𝜆)−𝛮𝑑𝑁
∗ − 𝑑0) (11), 𝜆 =𝜄−𝛾
1+𝛾
Where: p*=primary balance
d*=target debt ratio
d=current debt ratio
γ=annual nominal GDP growth rate
i=annual nominal interest rate which the country pays for its outstanding debt of the previous
period.
The assumptions that will be used are the following: d*=1.2, d=1.8, γ=0.0415, i=0.0475 and N=10. The
target debt ratio of 120% is the target the IMF put for Greece. The annual nominal growth rate of 4.15% is
the average of the projected nominal growth rates for Greece from 2014 to 2020. The rather optimistic
nominal interest rate of 4.75% is the average interest rate that Greece pays after the Greek haircut for the
money it borrowed at a range of 30 years. It is important here to mention that the assumption of a 4.75%
nominal interest rate has as a prerequisite that Greece will be able to find credit for the next 10 years which
58
is the period I examine at this specific and rather low rate. Putting the above values on equation 11, will
give us a primary surplus of about 6.9%. Even if we extend the period from 10 to 25 years the necessary
yearly primary surplus reaches 3.27%. It is noteworthy that right now Greece faces a nominal GDP growth
rate of -7.1%. Furthermore, by taking into account the comparison of the other Troika’s expectations and
assumptions to the realizations we find out that achieving the debt level of 120%, at which the debt is
considered sustainable, seems impossible.
4.5.2 How probable is the exit?
Taking into account that the current Greek government is not considering leaving the Eurozone as an
option, it would be logical to think that the probability of Greece leaving the Euro would greatly increase
with a left party government. The following election poll was carried by the firm Palmos Analysis in a
sample of 1,009 voters across the country.
Figure 23; Source: tvxs.gr
At the above figure, it can be seen the percentage distribution of the Greek voters. It is clear that SY.RIZ.A.
which is the left party is 2.6 percentage points in front of N.D. which is the neoliberal right party. Given
the views of the two parties and also the treatment they enjoy in their relationships with the Troika and the
Eurozone we could figure out that an election of SY.RIZ.A. would mean possibly an exit from the
Eurozone.
0
5
10
15
20
25
Election Poll 2013
59
Another way to assess how probable a Grexit is, is the examination of the Greek import coverage. A general
rule of thumb is that foreign exchange reserves should be enough to cover three months’ worth of imports.
If they are not adequate to cover three months’ worth of imports, a confidence crisis can arise, that could
force Greece to exit the Eurozone.
Figure 24; Source: Bank of Greece
By taking a look at the official data of Greece, we will find out that in 2011 the yearly average of foreign
exchange reserves for Greece was €4853.9 million, in 2012 it was €5550.9 million and €5036.4 million for
2013. After the appropriate calculations it can be derived whether Greece’s import coverage is adequate
according to the three month rule of thumb and whether it is not. The results are showed on the next figure.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Feb
r '1
1
Mar
'11
Ap
r '1
1
May
'11
Jun
'11
Jul '
11
Au
g '1
1
Sep
'11
Oct
'11
No
v '1
1
Dec
'11
Jan
'12
Feb
'12
Mar
'12
Ap
r '1
2
May
'12
Jun
'12
Jul '
12
Au
g '1
2
Sep
'12
Oct
'12
No
v '1
2
Dec
'12
Jan
'13
Feb
'13
Mar
'13
Ap
r '1
3
May
'13
Jun
'13
Jul '
13
Au
g '1
3
Sep
'13
Imports vs Foreign Exchange Reserves
Imports ForEx reserves
60
Figure 25
As it can be concluded from the above diagram, Greece’s foreign exchange reserves for the period 2011-
2013 are enough to cover the value of imports of just one month, violating the international standard of
three months. It is obvious that the import coverage was lower in 2011 when Greece faced many economic
problems, it increased in 2012 and again decreased in 2013. The decrease in 2013 proves once again that
Troika’s policies did not have the expected results. It would also be helpful here to show the progress of
the consumers’ confidence over the years. It is clear from figure 25 how low the Greek consumers’
confidence from 2010 until now is. And what is important to underline here is that their confidence did not
improve during the three years that Greece follows the Troika’s policies. Famous financial sites like Capco
and Sentix give Greece the highest probabilities of Exit in the Eurozone.
Figure 26; Data from Eurostat. *-100 means complete lack of confidence, 0 neutrality and 100 extreme confidence.
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
Import Coverage for Greece
2011 2012 2013
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Jan'10
Mar'10
May'10
Jul'10
Sep'10
Nov'10
Jan'11
Mar'11
May'11
Jul'11
Sep'11
Nov'11
Jan'12
Mar'12
May'12
Jul'12
Sep'12
Nov'12
Jan'13
Mar'13
May'13
Jul'13
Sep'13
Consumer's Confidence for Greece
61
Chapter 5 Plan B The main objective of the thesis after taking into account the lessons we drew from the precedents was to
construct an exit plan for Hellas. Although making the decision to leave the Eurozone is a big step for
Greece, the most difficult part of an exit would be the planning and organizing of the appropriate measures
that have to be taken in order for the exit to be beneficial for the Greek economy and the Greek people;
what is called “the Plan B”. The exit plan is based on three basic pylons: suspension of payments-auditing
of debt and liabilities, introduction of new national currency-capital controls and organizing of the next
steps-development. The construction of the whole plan along with the assessment of the probable outcomes
must be completed in secrecy in order not to cause panic and capital flight.
Suspension of Payments is the pretty first step that the Greek government needs to take in the path of a
Grexit. It is clear that a suspension of payments initiated by the lender did not have the appropriate results,
so what has to be done is a suspension of payments initiated by Greece itself. A suspension of payments is
equivalent to an orderly default. Of course the default of a country is nothing like a bankruptcy of a firm.
When a firm goes bust, it stops existing and its creditors have legal rights to proceed to confiscation of its
property. On the other hand the same cannot happen with a country which after the default continues to
exist, as its people continue to live in it and its property continues to belong to its people. It has to be
emphasized that a temporary suspension of payments does not necessarily mean the permanent default on
all of Greece’s debts and liabilities. It also has to be noted that a suspension of payments is not illegal; the
United Nations’ International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) includes the
right to work, the right to just and favorable conditions of work, trade union rights, the right to social
security, rights related to the protection of the family, the right to an adequate standard of living, the right
to health, the right to education and rights related to culture and science; rights that have been clearly
violated with the implementation of the Troika’s austerity measures by the coalition government of Antonis
Samaras as unemployment reached unprecedented levels, people have to work more hours for lower wages,
workers are laid off without compensations, schools and hospitals were shut down, different municipalities
assimilated, public property was sold or privatized arbitrarily without taking into account its strategic nature
or its financial utility to the budget and also there have been incidents with the government prohibiting
strikes and public demonstrations. The latter in conjunction with the encroachment of the collective
agreements via the salary reductions in both public and private sector constitute a massive blow for the
labor rights. More specifically, Dr. G. Katrougalos (2013) states in his article that the austerity measures
violate several structural constitutional principles (such as the principles of equality of public burdens and
of a social state of law – article 4, paragraph 5 and article 25, paragraph 1 of the Greek Constitution) and
fundamental social rights (articles 21, 22 and 23 of the Constitution). Moreover, they constitute a violation
of collective autonomy, which is guaranteed by Article 22, paragraph 2 of the Greek Constitution and a
number of international treaties, for example Article 8 of International Labor Convention no 151 of 1978
and Article 6 of the European Social Charter. They also violate essential guarantees of the EU Charter of
62
Fundamental Rights and International Labor Law. Even the EC admitted in its first review of the second
adjustment program that important budgetary measures are likely to be challenged in courts, something that
could lead to the need to fill a fiscal gap emerging as a consequence. It is noteworthy that in similar
situations such as the precedent in Hungary in 1990, the existence of the Constitutional Court was
substantial as it could act in the interest of the Hungarian democracy by blocking IMF imposed cuts and
measures if it considered it necessary; the absence of a similar institution in Greece constitutes a basic lack
as no opposition MP seem to resist actively either. It is noteworthy here to mention the case of the Greek
loan to Germany during the German occupation of Greece. A loan that although has been recognized even
by Hitler, it has never been repaid by the Germans. Dr. Christoph Smink Gustavous (2013) believes that
Greece must demand the repayment of the loan who were signed by force on 14 March 1942 by the Greek
government.
Auditing of the debt and liabilities is the very next step after the suspension of payments. It is important
to commit auditing of the debt and liabilities in order to find out which part of the debt is odious and which
is not. The characterization of debt as odious was first used by the Russian jurisprudence expert and
professor of Russian law Alexander Nahum Sack in Paris on 1927. He defined as odious the debt which
was generated at the expense of the people, without them agreeing on that debt. There are several parts of
the Greek debt that could be characterized as odious. It is important to arrange an auditing of the debt so
that the Greek people will decide which part of their debt they accept and they are willing to pay. More
specifically, as odious debts could be characterized:
Debts that were created in the past and have been repaid before. It is noteworthy that Greece
defaulted four times in the past (1827, 1843, 1897,1932), but it continues to pay part of the
interests of those debts.
Debts that were created during the period of the dictatorship of the colonels and were quadrupled
between 1967 and 1974.
Debts that were created after the organization of the Olympic Games of 2004. The scandal was that
when the Greek government announced on 1997 that the Olympic Games would take place in
Greece, it also announced that the games would cost $1.7 billion while later the cost increased to
$5.3 billion. After the end of the Olympic Games the official cost amounted to $14.2 billion.
Debts due to signed contracts with Siemens, the multinational firm that was accused by both the
Greek and the German justice for bribing of Greek politicians, and martials for the sale of
equipment and other services such as Anti-missile Patriot Systems, digitization of
telecommunication centers of OTE, equipment for OSE, telecommunications system Hermès for
the Greek military, equipment for Greek hospitals and security system C4I.
Debts due to the German submarines scandal. The word is for the purchase of two German
submarines (for €5 billion) by the Greek government that were defective.
63
The debts due to the rescue packages from the Troika. The main reasons for characterizing these
debts as dubious are mainly the time of repayment, the very high and usurious interest rates and
the fact that the Greek people never agreed with the signing of those loans.
The €3 billion Goldman Sachs loan that was signed by then Prime Minister C. Simitis in order to
bribe Goldman Sachs to change the national economic data so that Greece could enter the European
Economic Union.
And these are just a few of the examples of parts of the Greek debt that could be characterized as odious.
It should be noted that the auditing of public debt and liabilities is not something new, as it was done
by Ecuador in 2007-2008, and their government managed to greatly diminish the government debt. If
we take a look of the Greek government budgets of the period 1984-2011 we would find out that Greece
spent in order to service its debts €785 billion, of which €209.5 billion were interest. It is noteworthy
to quote the official data from the Greek budget of 2013; in 2009 the debt servicing needs reached
€41.460 billion in interest and amortization plus €36.904 billion in repayments of short term securities,
in 2010 the debt servicing needs decreased to €32.772 while at the same time the repayments of short
term securities reached €22.601. The situation greatly changed during 2011 when the debt servicing
needs amounted to €45.195 billion plus €33.395 in repayments of short term securities, and in 2012
while the debt servicing needs decreased to €25.160 billion the repayment of short term securities
increased to €43.607 billion. It is clear after the calculation of the sums that Greece mainly borrows
money in order to repay previous loans.
Introduction of the new national currency: Proceeding to the two previous steps presupposes that
the Greek government will be eager and ready to leave the Eurozone. Stepping out of the Euro is not
an easy step and will be costly both in time and money. The introduction of the new currency needs
good planning, quick decisions and as much secrecy as possible at least at the beginning. Stepping out
from a monetary union is not something new, so the Greek government can easily follow the examples
of previous breakups in order to minimize the costs.
The Grexit should start with a bank holiday. It is better if this is planned to happen on a Greek national
holiday or else on a Friday, so that the government will have 3 to 4 days (including Monday) to plan
the next steps. In this bank holiday all transaction would be prevented; the same applies for electronic
transactions via e-banking and for transactions with ATMs. It is of grave importance along with the
temporary freezing of the deposits that the government will announce capital controls, as most people
will try to move their money abroad in order not to lose purchasing power. After the bank holiday and
the announcement of the introduction of the new currency, it is impossible to start immediately the
circulation of the new currency; the government may need 4-6 months in order to print and to introduce
the new currency in the economy. Although starting the printing of the new currency before even
64
announcing the Grexit may seem a good idea, it would be merely impossible to do this in complete
secrecy; there would be leaks that could ruin the whole plan. A good question is how the economy
would operate those 4-6 months without a currency. We saw that in previous exits from monetary
unions stamping of the old currency was used as a solution; this consisted a good solution for other
unions because the old currency would stop circulating after the introduction of the new. But in the
case in point, the Eurozone will continue to exist and other countries will continue to use the Euro after
the exit of Greece. There are two possible solutions:
One is to convert all prices into the new currency and let the economy to operate with plastic
money i.e. credit cards, debit cards, other bank cards etc. until the circulation of the new
currency. Of course using credit cards is easy for transactions of higher value but is more
difficult for everyday transactions. For transactions of low value people could work with credit.
The other is to continue using the Euro as a foreign currency. This dual currency system can be
used as it was used in most of the Soviet Union member countries after the collapse of the
union or as it is used in countries like Turkey where people in shops accept payment in Euros.
An important issue is the conversion exchange rate. Maybe the best solution would be the 1-1 conversion,
where €1 would be converted to 1 new Drachma. This was also suggested by Roger Bootle (July 2012) in
his practical guide. All deposits, prices, wages, pensions and loans will be converted from Euros to new
Drachmas, and all contracts in Euro will be redenominated in new Drachma. The 1-1 conversion is the best
solution in order to avoid inflation due to upward rounding of prices after the introduction of the new
Drachma. Of course this exchange rate would be valid only at the beginning and only inside Greece, as the
exchange rate with the Euro would later change and €1 would cost more than 1 new Drachmas.
Capital Controls: The next most important issue is the imposition of capital controls. As it was mentioned
before in this section, after the announcement of the Grexit most people and firms will try to move their
money abroad in order to benefit from the later devaluation. So it is a necessity that the government will
prohibit all money transfers, not only money transfers via banks and e-banking but also the physical money
transfers through the borders. This is not something new as capital controls were used in most of the cases
of union breakups we have examined. There are some concerns about the legality of the imposition of such
meters, as an EU member can impose capital controls according to a provision (Article 59) only for six
months and after the approval of the ECB and the Commission and the agreement of other members. This
is an issue that mainly concerned economists who believe that an exit should be temporary and who for no
reason consider an exit from the EU as well. However, in the case of Grexit, the legality of the capital
controls will be only a minor issue as there are so many other things that will be more important for the EU
and the other members. There is also the precedent of Iceland who used capital controls after the
recommendation of the IMF for far more than six months and is using them until today. Imposing capital
controls in order to prevent capital flight and sharp depreciation was a successful meter in the case of
65
Iceland, and it can surely be helpful in the case of Greece. As far as the Greek deposits in foreign banks are
concerned, government can impose higher taxes in order both for the country to benefit in the form of
government revenues and to discourage future capital flight.
After the new currency has been printed, banks will be able to exchange any amount of Euros for new
Drachmas at the initial conversion rate of 1-1. However most people will try to save Euros in their homes
in order to spend it abroad or exchange it after the devaluation of the new currency. A pre-emptive move
by the government and the banks would be to buy this money in a higher exchange rate, in order to take it
out of the economy and increase the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
It is important that the government will announce the nationalization of the Greek Central Bank and also
the nationalization of the largest private banks. Right now the Greek Central Bank is according to its article
8 of association a diversified private company, and while there is no limit to what extent it can be privately
owned there is a limit to the extent it can be publicly owned; this limit is 35%. It is unacceptable to leave
the conducting of monetary policy along with the ownership and management of the foreign exchange
reserves and the control of the private banks to a limited company. It is a fact that after the Greek exit, most
banks will face many difficulties and may even go bankrupt. In order to support the banks and avoid a
collapse of the whole Greek banking system the banks must be public. We should not overlook also the
fact that the Greek private banks were several times recapitalized by the government overloading the Greek
government budget; economist and researcher D. Kazakis supports that the cost of those recapitalizations
reaches €360 billion. It is a fact that most of the €50 billion that Greece borrowed from EFSF in order to
recapitalize the private banks did not go to the Greek market; the money was used by the banks in order to
increase their profitability by buying English and Luxembourg bonds. It should be noted that the annual
rate of change of the total funding of the domestic private sector was -4.1% on June 2013 from -3.7% on
May 2013. Moreover, the net flow of total credit to the domestic private sector was negative by €212
million, while on June 2012 it was positive at €852 million. After the nationalization of the banks, it is
important to stop any auctions of houses of people that could not repay their loans and also to delete the
debts of people and businesses that cannot repay them or repaid most of the loan so that the market will be
revivified.
Next Steps: After the implementation of the program it is necessary for the government to arrange the next
steps; and by next steps we mean, the devaluation of the currency, the export agreements, the planning of
protectionism of the internal market and the organizing of a development program for the future so that the
Greece will continue its good course.
One of the main reasons why being a member of the Eurozone made it difficult for the southern countries
to become competitive was the lack of the right to devalue their currency; however, after the Grexit, Greece
66
will be free to conduct its own monetary policy. A devaluation of the new Drachma will happen as soon as
the new currency is introduced. By taking into account precedents of exits from unions and devaluations
that happened there, such as the incident of Argentina, we can predict that the devaluation of the new
national currency could reach 40%-60%. This devaluation is substantial to happen in order for the Greek
economy to recover. This will happen by the immediate increase of the Greek exports as they will be
cheaper and at the same time the decrease of Greece’s imports as they will be more expensive. Although a
devaluation of the currency is necessary in order for the country to achieve the external devaluation it needs,
it is also substantial to avoid further depreciations of the currency that could only hurt the economy. This
can be done by using some kind of protectionist policy such as by being strict with its framework of fiscal
and its monetary policy and show its commitment to the framework. Using its foreign exchange reserves
to buy the national currency in the international market is another policy but of course this kind of policy
will be more difficult to use, as Greece’s foreign exchange reserves after the exit will not be enough. An
important issue here is also the return of the Greek gold reserves back to Greece. Greece owns 111.5 tons
of gold, and half of them are been kept in three different foreign banks; the UBS in Switzerland, the FED
and the Bank of England.
Another thing that the Greek government should take into account is the after the exit inflation. There are
precedents of hyperinflation on previous Union breakups so the government should take the appropriate
meters to avoid this from happening. This also can be done by being strict with its policies and remain
reliable to its commitments so that it will not change peoples’ and market’s expectations. The Greek
government should use an inflation targeted regime and again not use excessive fiscal policy. It can also
use index-linked bonds and disconnect the increase in wages from the inflation in order to strengthen the
anti-inflation expectations. Right now in Greece the automatic indexation for wages is used.
Among Greece’s next steps, the new export and import agreements are included. One of the main concerns
and fears of most Greek people is the ability of Greece to buy oil after the exit from the Eurozone. They
fear that for the first months at least Greece because of lack of money or because of ruined relationships
with other Eurozone members would find it difficult to ensure the necessary amounts of oil. A good solution
for these first months and while Greece is in the transitional stage, would be the government to start the
process of exit at the end of February; this would give it a seven month window until next winter –when
oil needs are increased due to heating needs- in order to sign new oil-import agreements. As far as
pharmaceuticals and food are concerned, until the time Greece develops the existing Greek industries and
sign new import agreements, the government could use administrative measures and priority coupons. After
these months Greece should be able to sign new agreements. However, Greece as a member of the EU is
obliged to adhere to specific import and export agreements, customs, duties and quotas and also specific
agricultural productions according to Common Agricultural Policy. If the EU will not cooperate and will
not agree to give Greece the freedom to act outside the legal framework at least until it recovers, it may be
67
necessary for Greece to consider the possibility of exiting the EU as well. Without any limitations Greece
can easily sign import agreements for oil and other products that will benefit it in terms of cost. The
agreements may also include some credit at least for the first years or payment in kind. The exchange of
products between countries is not something new, Greece did it in the past with Russia, by paying with
oranges for agricultural equipment; Honduras also buy oil from Venezuela with chickens and coffee. It is
noteworthy that the nationalization of ELPE (Hellenic Petroleum) which is the largest refining company in
Greece and one of the major groups in the energy sector in Southeast Europe could according to economist
and researcher D. Kazakis decrease the gasoline price by 2.5%.
It is a fact that after the Grexit, the introduction of the new national currency and its depreciation, Greek
exports will immediately increase. However, as both agricultural and industrial sectors of Greece are weak
right now, it is necessary that the Greek government will support those sectors by using protectionist policy.
The increase in the cost of imports will diminish them but it is also substantial to proceed to import
substitution with national products and use import duties in order to achieve the internal market recovery.
After some time Greek livestock and agricultural sectors can develop again and focus on the production of
quality goods and in products where they have a comparative advantage such as olive oil, tobacco, fruit and
vegetables, cotton, honey, wine, yoghurt, cheese. Greek industrial sector can also recover and become again
competitive; building a productive base for Greece is the number one priority along with the shrinkage and
improvement of services.
Finally, the government should proceed to the cancelation of every privatization and privatization
agreement of public property that is scheduled to happen or happened as part of the Troika’s plan for
Greece. In this list are included the privatization of OPAP which is being processed right now, the
privatization of water companies, the sale of the mine and forest in Halkidiki to the Canadian mining
company Eldorado and others. As we mentioned before privatizations cannot be the solution to the
problems of Greece. A public company can be organized and managed to work and supply the same quality
just like a private company. Furthermore it is one thing to privatize a public company without asking Greek
people and another to privatize free commodities such as water and forests. The sale of the forest of
Halkidiki which is the forest above the mine was done without taking into account the problems that its
destruction would cause to the people living there and to the environment; it was sold for the outrageous
price of €1. Moreover, if we take into account official data we will find out that the natural monopoly of
water gives the public companies of water the possibility to ensure large profits. In the period 2007-2011
the public water companies in Greece made a profit of €75.2 million and in 2012 a profit of €17.8 million;
it is noteworthy that the company has a reserve of €35 million. Therefore, the public water company is a
profitable company just like ERT (the Greek national radio-television company) that was shut down while
in 2012 face a surplus of €129 million. After all, why to sell public companies and benefit only once while
instead you can realize every year profits by owing them. But even if we examine examples of privatizations
68
of water in other countries we will find out that in most cases it created problems. The privatization of water
in Britain led to the increase of its price by 50%, to quality reduction, and to repeated violations of
environmental legislation. In Bolivia after the privatization, water tariffs increased by 200-300%. It is
obvious that by ceding the production and distribution of a public good to a private company that its main
objective is the maximization of its profits you are risking that the company will not act on the basis of the
social interest. It is no coincidence that the referendum for the privatization of water companies in Italy,
resulted in 95% of Italians voting against the privatization.
69
CHAPTER 6 Discussion and Conclusions The main purpose of this thesis, was to find out how possible a Hellexit is and construct an exit plan for
Greece. When the Hellenic Republic faced the dilemma in 2010 of staying in the Eurozone and trying to
fight the crisis with the help and suggestions of the Troika, or leaving the Euro, defaulting orderly and
introducing its own new national currency, the then prime minister G. Papandreou decided that accepting
help from the IMF and Europe and trying to fight the lack of competitiveness with internal devaluation was
the optimal solution. In this dissertation, I examined the possibility for Hellas to leave the Eurozone, default
on its debt and introduce its own new national currency. Although, it is not the first time that a country
leaves a monetary union, there is no precedent that constitutes a complete parallel of an exit from the Euro.
As the Eurozone is a 17 member monetary union with one common currency and a strong Central Bank
without any political union.
In the first section I examined several cases of union breakups that could become the examples of a Hellexit
and could be used to draw lessons for the exit plan. The case of the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire
was not an optimistic one as both countries suffered from hyperinflation after the breakup and faced
problems with the stamping of the currency and capital flight. In the case of Czechoslovakia while it was a
two member union, the breakup was more optimistic as it was quick and successful. In addition, in the
incident of the breakup of the Soviet Union, the disintegration of the Union was more beneficial for the
stronger Baltic economies while more costly for the weaker ones. After these breakups I examined the case
of the United States during the Great Depression while F.D. Roosevelt proceeded to the suspension of the
gold standard and devaluation, a policy that turned out to be very helpful for the economy along with the
introduction of some Keynesian measures in order to limit the negative impacts of the crisis. Maybe the
incident that is the most close to a Hellenic exit was the case of Argentina in 1999. Although the two cases
share many things in common, we should keep in mind the differences in the economic environment back
then and now. Argentina dropped the peg with the dollar in an economic environment characterized by
prosperity and development, while this is not true for Hellas right now as most economies of the world are
facing economic difficulties. Last but not least I examined the case of the Icelandic crisis of 2008; a case
which also shares several things in common with the case of Greece. What we learned from the Icelandic
case was that leaving the banks to collapse is not always a bad thing, and that devaluations may help the
economy to recover.
On the next section I continued with empirical analysis by running several regression analyses. On the first
regression analysis I examined the relationship of the Greek to the German yields to maturity and I found
out, as it was expected, that there is a strong negative relationship, meaning that countries like Germany
made money because of the bad economic conditions in countries like Greece; money that was not used in
order to help the weaker economies. The second regression analysis examined the relationship between the
70
Greek yield spreads to the Greek debt. As it was expected there is a strong positive relationship between
the two variables. However, when I examined the relationship of the yield spreads to the debt squared, I
found out a negative relationship; a relationship which proves the credit rationing effect and captures the
debt market imperfections. The third regression examined the relationship of Greek CDS spreads to the
Greek debt, the German CDS spreads and the liquidity policies implied by the ECB. As expected the Greek
CDS spreads are positively affected by the German CDS spreads and the Greek debt and finally, negatively
by the open market operations of the ECB. This negative relationship may be explained by investors shifting
from investments in investment grade bonds to investments in sovereign bonds. Next, it was examined if
the Okun’s law is applicable in the Greek economy. The results showed that for the period 2005-2013, the
Okun’s law is conspicuous in the Greek economy with an Okun’s estimator of -0.13. This negative
relationship, means that when the Greek GDP decreases by 1% the unemployment rate increases by 0.13%.
The next step was to run regression analyses for examining the relationship of the Greek over the German
10 year bond yield spreads and the credit rating by the three credit rating agencies. As it was expected, a
positive relationship was conspicuous, meaning that the credit rating of the agencies affects the borrowing
costs of Greece. The same was results were found from the regression of the Greek CDS spreads to the
credit ratings of the three credit rating agencies. The positive relationship between the CDS spreads and the
credit ratings was even stronger meaning that credit rating by the agencies greatly affects the risk of
investing in Greek sovereign debt. After the econometrical analysis I examined the expectations of Troika
for Hellas and compared them to what really happened to the Hellenic economy. I examined several
indicators such as the real growth rate and the unemployment rate and in order to find out if the main goal
of the Troika which is the increase of competitiveness of Hellas was succeeded I examined the Greek
exports. In all of the cases, EC’s reports were always underestimating the negative impacts of the Troika’s
plan for Greece. Even by examining a mathematical scenario for the Greek debt repayment, the assumptions
in order Greece to decrease its debt to a sustainable level seem unrealistic with the current data. Finally, by
examining the election polls along with import coverage ratio for Greece, we concluded that after 2011
Greece faces an increased probability of exit. Not only internal devaluation did not have the expected results
but also worsened the situation for the country. So internal devaluation was not the optimal policy for Hellas
which did not manage to increase its competitiveness. Every new rescue package for Hellas greatly
increases its debt, which right now including the new package of 2012 and the installment of 2013 reaches
€378.8 billion or 194.81% of GDP. As this amount of debt is enormous and according to the IMF it will be
viable only if it reaches 120% of GDP, something that with the current data and with the lack of a primary
surplus is impossible, the only solution for Hellas is an orderly default and an exit from the Eurozone in
order to recover through external devaluation. In this way Hellas will manage to improve its terms of trade,
regain its internal market and create steadily an industrial base.
The final section of the thesis, constitutes the suggested exit plan for Hellas after taking into account the
famous precedents of monetary union breakups. The plan is divided in three main sections: suspension of
71
payments-auditing of the debt and liabilities, introduction of the new national currency-introduction of
capital controls and next steps-development. The suspension of payments should be initiated by the
borrower, in contrast with the PSI that already took place. At the same time the auditing of the liabilities is
important, in order to find out which part of the debt is dubious and which is not. The introduction of the
new currency should be done at a 1-1 exchange rate. The introduction of the capital controls is critical in
order to avoid capital outflows. Finally, the government should organize its next steps, in order for the
country to recover steadily.
Taking all the appropriate measures and following the path of a Hellexit will not be easy especially at the
beginning, but looking forward in the future and trying to build a stable, sovereign and strong economy
instead of looking how to avoid the temporary hardship of an exit must be the main objective of Hellenes
right now.
72
REFERENCES Adams T.H., (Jul., 2012). “When Greece exits the Euro”, the Economist, ColoradoBiz; 39, 7; ProQuest
pg. 10.
Alcidi C., Giovannini A. & Gros D., (Jul., 2011). “History repeating itself: From the Argentine default to
the Greek tragedy?”, CEPS commentary.
Arnold I., Lemmen, J. (2001), “The Vulnerability of Banks to Government Default Risk in the EMU”,
International Finance 4:1, pp. 101-125
Aslund A., (Mar 2012). “Why Greece must not leave the Euro area”,
http://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime/?p=2745.
Barber S., (Feb., 2012). “Breaking point? Greece vs Argentina”.
Barty J., (Mar., 2012). “Testing Euro exit scenarios”, FX-week.
Bernanke B., Harold J., (Jan., 1991). “The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great
Depression: An International Comparison”, Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pp 33-68.
Bevan J., (Feb., 2012). “Everything you wanted to know about the Greek bailout”,
http://www.room151.co.uk/blogs/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-the-greek-bailout/.
Blejer M., (May, 2011). “Europe is running a giant Ponzi scheme”, the Financial Times,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ee728cb6-773e-11e0-aed6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2dYG7fmT2.
Bootle R., (Jul., 2012). “Leaving the Euro: a Practical Guide”, Capital Economics, A submission for the
Wolfson Economics Prize MMXII.
Boysen-Hogrefe J. (May, 2013). “Low bond yields have saved the German government €80 billion in
interest since 2009”. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/05/22/low-bond-yields-germany-saving-
billions/
Buiter W., (Sep., 1999). “The EMU and the NAMU: What is the Case for North American Monetary
Union?”, Canadian Public Policy, /Analyse de Politiques, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 285-305, University of
Toronto Press.
73
CapitalVia, “Impact of Greece Crisis”, White paper, Global research limited,
Conway P., (Jun 1995). “Currency Proliferation: The Monetary Legacy of the Soviet Union”, Essays in
International Finance, No. 197.
Corcoran P., (Nov., 2011). “Argentina 2001 vs Greece 2011: The parallels and pitfalls of comparison”.
D&B, (Apr., 2012). “The business impact of a Greek Euro-zone Exit”, special report.
Dahrendorf R. (1998). “Disunited by a Common Currency”, Statesman.
Danielsson J., (Oct 2011). “Was the IMF program in Iceland successful?”,
http://www.voxeu.org/article/iceland-was-imf-programme-successful.
Deo S., Donovan P. & Hatheway L., (Oct., 2011). “A brief history of breakups”, UBS investment
research, Global economic perspectives.
Eichengreen B., Sachs J., (Dec., 1985). “Exchange rates and economic recovery in the 1930s”, The
Journal of Economic History, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 925-946.
Eichengreen B., (Sep., 2007), “The breakup of the Euro Area”, working paper 13393.
Economist the, (May, 2012). “Greece and the Euro. Exodus Chapter 1”.
Economist the, (Aug., 2012). “Breaking up the Euro area. The Merkel memorandum”.
Escolano J., (Jan., 2010). “A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and
Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates”, IMF paper authorized for distribution by Cottarelli C.
Eurogroup Statement on Greece, (13-05-2013).
European Commission, (Jan., 2010). “Report on Greek government deficit and statistics”.
European Commission, (2010). “The economic adjustment program for Greece: First review summer
2010”, Directorate general for economic and financial affairs.
74
European Commission, (Dec., 2010). “The economic adjustment program for Greece: Second review
autumn 2010”, Directorate general for economic and financial affairs.
European Commission, (Feb., 2011). “The economic adjustment program for Greece: Third review
winter 2011”, Directorate general for economic and financial affairs.
European Commission, (Jul., 2011). “The economic adjustment program for Greece: Fifth review spring
2011”, Directorate general for economic and financial affairs.
European Commission, (Dec 2012). “The second economic adjustment program for Greece: First
review-December 2012”, occasional papers 123.
European Commission, (May 2013). “The second economic adjustment program for Greece: Second
review-May 2013”, occasional papers 148.
Exadaktylos T., (Jul., 2012). “Ouzo and Out! It remains to be seen what Greece is in for after ‘exiting’
the Euro 2012”.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “International Financial Statistics”, section 15, FRASER
Fidrmuc J., Horvath J. & Fidrmuc J., (1999). “The stability of monetary unions: Lessons from the breakup
of Czechoslovakia”, Journal of comparative economics 27.
Flassbeck H., Lapavitsas C., (May, 2013). “The Systemic Crisis of the Euro-True Causes and Effective
Therapies”, Studien, Rosa Luxembourg Stiftung.
Frankel J., (Jun., 2012). “Could Eurobonds be the answer to the Eurozone crisis?”,
http://www.voxeu.org/article/could-eurobonds-be-answer-eurozone-crisis.
Garber P.M., Spencer M.G., (Jul., 1992). “The dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire: Lessons for
currency reforms”, working paper, IMF.
Goldberg L.S., Ickes B.W. & Ryterman R., (1994). “Departures from the Ruble Zone: The Implications of
Adopting Independent Currencies”.
Goodhart C.A.E., (Sep., 2011). “The European Collapse of 2012/13”, Special paper 201, LSE Financial
Markets Group Paper Series.
75
Granville B., Henkel H. & Kawalec S., (May, 2013). “Save Europe: Split the Euro”,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-14/save-europe-split-the-euro.html.
Granville B., Henkel H. & Kawalec S., (May, 2013). “France must leave breakup of Euro”,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/france-must-lead-breakup-of-euro.html.
Grauwe P. de, (2010). “How to embed the Eurozone in a political union”, VOX, LSE research.
Grauwe P. de, (2010). “The Greek crisis and the future of the Eurozone”.
Haberler G., (1970). “The International Monetary System: Some Recent Developments and Discussions”,
Approaches to Greater Flexibility in Exchange Rates, G. Halm, ed. Prineston, NJ: Prineston University
Press.
Henkel Hans-Olaf, (Jun., 2011). “It’s time for the Nordeuro: when the Eurozone gets split in two”, Die
Welt, http://www.worldcrunch.com/its-time-nordeuro-when-euro-zone-gets-split-two/business-finance/it-
s-time-for-the-nordeuro-when-the-euro-zone-gets-split-in-two-/c2s3370/.
Hewitt M., (2012). “Hyperinflation around the Globe”, DollarDaze,
http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00107.
Holland S., (Oct., 2011). “Eurozone Crisis - Solutions in Prospect or Global Meltdown?”, Presentation to
the AENL conference.
International Institute of Finance staff, (Feb., 2012). “Implications of a Disorderly Greek Default and Euro
Exit”.
International Monetary Fund, (Oct., 2003). “Lessons from the Crisis in Argentina”, Development and
Review Department.
International Monetary Fund, (2004). “The IMF and Argentina 1991-2001”.
International Monetary Fund, (Jun., 2013). “Greece: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement
Under the Extended Fund Facility—Staff Report; Staff Statement; Press Release; and Statement by the
Executive Director for Greece”.
76
International Montetary Fund, (Jun., 2013). “Greece: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the
2010 Stand-By Arrangement”.
Katrougalos G., (Jan., 2013). “The Greek Austerity Measures: Violations of Socio-Economic Rights”.
Kazakis D., http://dimitriskazakis.blogspot.gr/
Klein N., (2009). “The shock doctrine: the rise of disaster capitalism”.
Klein N., (2013). “the shock doctrine in Greece: Left party’s role”, interview on sky,
http://www.skai.gr/news/politics/article/233405/naomi-klain-gia-perivallodiki-krisi-apokratikopoiiseis-
kai-aristera-/.
Kouretas G., Vlamis P., (Oct., 2010). “The Greek Crisis: Causes and Implications”, Panoeconomicus, 4,
pp. 391-404.
Krugman P., (2012). “Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area”, The conscience of a Leberal,
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/revenge-of-the-optimum-currency-area/.
Krugman P., (2012). “The ECB and the Austerity Trap”, The conscience of a Liberal,
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/the-ecb-and-the-austerity-trap/
Krugman P., (May, 2012). Interview with the Spiegel online,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-economist-paul-krugman-on-euro-zone-
rescue-efforts-a-834566.html.
Lapavitsas C., Kaltenbrunner A., Lambrinidis G., Lindo D., Meadway J., Michell J., Painceira J.P., Pires
E., Powell J., Stenfors A. & Teles N., (Sep., 2010). “The Eurozone between austerity and default”,
Research on Money and Finance occasional report.
Lapavitsas C., (Jun., 2012). “Greece could Begin Again”, “Le Monde Diplomatique”
Leach G., (Oct., 2012). “Heading for the Euro exit”, Director, 66, 2, ProQuest pg. 14.
Lordon F., (2013). “to leave the Euro but how?”, Le Monde Diplomatique.
Marx K., (1867). “The Capital”, Vol 1.
77
Treaty of Maastricht, (Feb., 1992)
McKinnon, (1991). The Order of Economic Liberalization, table 11.1.
Michalopoulos G., “Financing of Greek banks during the crisis”.
Nordvig J., (Dec., 2012). “The Probability of Greek Exit Revisited”.
O’Brien M., (Mar., 2013). “Why the Euro is doomed in 4 steps”,
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/why-the-euro-is-doomed-in-4-steps/274470/.
Rapporteur of Greek government budget 2013.
Roberts R., (Oct., 2011). “A stable currency in search of a stable Empire? The Austro-Hungarian
experience of monetary union”, http://www.historyandpolicy.org/papers/policy-paper-127.html.
Rose A. K., (Dec., 2006). “Checking out: Exits from Currency Unions”.
Roubini N., (Apr., 2012). “Eurozone needs a growth strategy, not more austerity”, The Guardian,
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2012/apr/13/eurozone-needs-growth-strategy.
Ruparel R., Persson M., (Jun., 2012). “Better off out? The short-term options for Greece inside and outside
of the euro”, Open Europe.
Saxton J., (Jun., 2003). “Argentina’s Economic Crisis: Causes and Cures”, Joint Economic Committee
United States Congress.
Scheiber T., (Apr., 2007). “The Experience of Exchange Rate Regimes in Southeastern Europe in a
Historical and Comparative Perspective”, Second Conference of the South-Eastern European Monetary
History Network (SEEMHN), Workshops preceding of OEnB workshops.
Sinn H.W., “Greece should exit the Eurozone as soon as possible and be offered a return ticket!”, Interview
with Open Europe, http://klauskastner.blogspot.gr/2013/04/prof-hans-werner-sinn-greece-should.html.
Soros G., (Apr., 2013). “Eurobonds or euro-exit: the choice is Germany's”, The Guardian,
http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/2013/apr/30/eurobonds-euro-germany-george-soros.
78
Spiegel P., Harding R., (Jun., 2013). “IMF admits to errors in international bailout of Greece", published
by the Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6924ee76-cdfb-11e2-8313-
00144feab7de.html#axzz2fvDhi1jK.
Tepper J., (Feb., 2012). “A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal
Solution”.
Tilford S., (Sep., 2006). “Will the Eurozone Crack?”, Centre for European Reform.
Treaty of Lisbon, Official Journal of the European Union
Van Overtveldt J., (2012). “The End of the Euro: the Uneasy Future of the European Union”.
Varoufakis Y., (Nov., 2010). “The modest proposal for the Euro”,
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2010/11/16/46/.
Voigt J., (May, 2012). “Greece euro exit may result in contagion”,
http://www.ftadviser.com/2012/05/14/investments/europe/greece-euro-exit-may-result-in-contagion-
Opf5TPPoK0ZaldaFQD9Y9J/article.html
Walsh S., (Nov., 2011). “The Demise of Monetary Unions: Czechoslovakia”,
http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2011-11-18/the-demise-of-monetary-unions-past-czechoslovakia.
Walsh S., (Nov., 2011) “The Demise of Monetary Unions: Soviet Union 1992”,
http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2011-11-17/demise-of-monetary-unions-past-ussr.
Walsh S., (Nov., 2011). “The Demise of Monetary Unions Past: Austro-Hungary 1919”,
http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2011-11-15/demise-of-currency-unions-austro-hungary.
Weisbrot M., Sandoval L., (Oct., 2007). “Argentina’s Economic Recovery Policy Choices and
Implications”, Center for Economic and Policy Research.
www.wikipedia.com.
Wren-Lewis S., (Mar., 2013), “The Eurozone crisis does not necessarily prove that a monetary union also
requires fiscal/political union”, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/03/04/the-eurozone-crisis-
monetary-union-without-fiscal-union-political-union-simon-wren-lewis/.
79
Zenakos A., (Jul., 2013). “Privatizing water in Greece”, Reports from the edge of borderline democracy,
http://borderlinereports.net/2013/07/09/privatizing-water-in-greece/.
Zeuceanu (1924) pp.454-456
80
APPENDIX A DEFINITIONS On the following section I will give some basic definitions, to make things more understandable to the
regular reader.
Monetary Union (Currency Union): When two or more groups (usually countries) share a common
currency or decide to peg their exchange rates in order to keep the value of their currency at a certain level.
One of the main goals of forming a currency union is to synchronize and manage each country's monetary
policy. More specifically there are three types of currency unions:
Informal - unilateral adoption of foreign currency
Formal – adoption of foreign currency by virtue of bilateral or multilateral agreement with the
issuing authority, sometimes supplemented by issue of local currency in currency peg regime.
Formal with common policy – establishment by multiple countries of common monetary policy
and issuing authority for their common currency.
Currency Peg: A country or government’s exchange rate policy of pegging the central bank’s rate of
exchange to another country’s currency. Currency has sometimes also been pegged to the price of gold.
Also known as a “fixed exchange rate” or “pegged exchange rate”.
Gold standard: A monetary system in which a country's government allows its currency unit to be freely
converted into fixed amounts of gold and vice versa. The exchange rate under the gold standard monetary
system is determined by the economic difference for an ounce of gold between two currencies. The gold
standard was mainly used from 1875 to 1914 and also during the interwar years.
Eurozone: The official name is Euro area. It is an economic and monetary union (EMU) of 17 European
Union (EU) member states that have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal lender.
The countries that constitute Eurozone are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Any
other EU state is obliged to join once it meet the criteria to do so; UK and Denmark are excluded. There
are no provisions for a state to leave the union by itself or to be expelled.
International Monetary Fund (IMF): The international organization created for the purpose of:
Promoting global monetary and exchange stability.
Facilitating the expansion and balanced growth of international trade.
Assisting in the establishment of a multilateral system of payments for current transactions.
The fund surveys and monitors economic and financial developments, lends funds to countries with
balance-of-payment difficulties, and provides technical assistance and training for countries requesting it.
81
European Central Bank (ECB): The central bank responsible for the monetary system of the European
Union (EU) and the euro currency. The bank was formed in Germany in June 1998 and works with the
other national banks of each of the EU members to formulate monetary policy that helps maintain price
stability in the European Union. The European Central Bank has been responsible for the monetary policy
of the European Union since January 1, 1999, when the euro currency was adopted by the EU members.
The responsibilities of the ECB are to formulate monetary policy, conduct foreign exchange, hold
currency reserves and authorize the issuance of bank notes, among many other things.
Eurobond: It is defined as government bonds that would be the liability of the Eurozone in the aggregate.
Open Market Operations: The buying and selling of government securities in the open market in order
to expand or contract the amount of money in the banking system. Purchases inject money into the
banking system and stimulate growth while sales of securities do the opposite.
82
APPENDIX B STATA RESULTS
1st Regression results
Table 14. Regression analysis of Greek and German 10yr bonds yields to maturity
Table 15. Summary of the Data
Table 16. Correlation Matrix
Table 17. Skewness/Kurtosis test
_cons 37.11046 .8006106 46.35 0.000 35.53884 38.68209
gerb -8.476647 .3290642 -25.76 0.000 -9.122611 -7.830683
grb Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 54936.282 775 70.8855251 Root MSE = 6.1818
Adj R-squared = 0.4609
Residual 29578.1549 774 38.2146704 R-squared = 0.4616
Model 25358.1271 1 25358.1271 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 1, 774) = 663.57
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 776
.
gerb 776 2.337662 .6748133 1.167 3.491
grb 776 17.29493 8.419354 5.522 37.101
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
gerb -0.6794 1.0000
grb 1.0000
grb gerb
.
myResiduals 776 0.0000 0.4852 40.24 0.0000
Variable Obs Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
joint
Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
83
2nd Regression results:
Table 18. Regression analysis of Greek yield spreads to Greek debt
Table 19. Summary of the statistics
Table 20. Summary of the Residuals for the Jarque Bera test
_cons -1.200041 .0833377 -14.40 0.000 -1.363514 -1.036569
debtsqrd -.4531265 .0401879 -11.28 0.000 -.5319577 -.3742954
debt 1.560669 .1169094 13.35 0.000 1.331344 1.789994
spread Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 11.9589794 1487 .008042353 Root MSE = .06739
Adj R-squared = 0.4353
Residual 6.74370162 1485 .004541213 R-squared = 0.4361
Model 5.21527782 2 2.60763891 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 2, 1485) = 574.22
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1488
debtsqrd 1488 2.248159 .6622092 1.265332 3.220984
debt 1488 1.482017 .2276363 1.12487 1.79471
spread 1488 .0941967 .0896792 .00304 .35301
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
99% .1944198 .2176898 Kurtosis 4.077846
95% .1545934 .2124898 Skewness 1.256251
90% .1017034 .2123498 Variance .0045351
75% .0255086 .2122598
Largest Std. Dev. .0673432
50% -.028437 Mean 1.14e-10
25% -.0470794 -.094297 Sum of Wgt. 1488
10% -.0609936 -.094317 Obs 1488
5% -.074347 -.095027
1% -.088747 -.095277
Percentiles Smallest
Residuals
84
Table 21. Correlation Matrix
3rd Regression results:
Table 22. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to OMO, Greek Debt and German CDS spreads
Table 23. Summary of the Statistics
debtsqrd 0.6070 0.9978 1.0000
debt 0.6228 1.0000
spread 1.0000
spread debt debtsqrd
_cons -13.90013 .41666 -33.36 0.000 -14.71782 -13.08245
Debt 14.23924 .5063752 28.12 0.000 13.24549 15.23298
OMO -5.27e-06 4.80e-07 -10.99 0.000 -6.22e-06 -4.33e-06
gerCDS 3.052076 .3702768 8.24 0.000 2.325417 3.778735
CDS Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 10376.5091 949 10.9341508 Root MSE = 1.3973
Adj R-squared = 0.8214
Residual 1846.90295 946 1.9523287 R-squared = 0.8220
Model 8529.60619 3 2843.20206 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 3, 946) = 1456.31
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 950
Debt 950 1.369863 .2031695 1.12487 1.70617
OMO 950 651557.3 142321.3 396986 910450
gerCDS 951 .4017553 .2160321 .0626428 .9913332
CDS 951 3.426945 3.451009 .2228093 34.02913
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
85
Table 24. Summary of the Residuals for the Jarque Bera test
Table 25. Correlation Matrix
Tables of fourth regression
Table 26. Regression analysis of changes in unemployment rate and changes in GDP
.
99% 4.402787 5.53477 Kurtosis 4.54057
95% 2.456737 5.505929 Skewness .6126806
90% 1.518952 5.324203 Variance 1.946157
75% .5831198 5.236639
Largest Std. Dev. 1.395047
50% .0752598 Mean -1.81e-09
25% -.9026355 -3.152142 Sum of Wgt. 950
10% -1.788751 -3.172124 Obs 950
5% -2.25315 -3.564428
1% -2.849439 -4.052996
Percentiles Smallest
Residuals
Debt 0.8746 0.7887 0.6940 1.0000
OMO 0.4553 0.3768 1.0000
gerCDS 0.8038 1.0000
CDS 1.0000
CDS gerCDS OMO Debt
_cons .531352 .1497031 3.55 0.001 .2264167 .8362872
dy -.1281691 .0545867 -2.35 0.025 -.2393586 -.0169796
du Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 28.5030614 33 .863729135 Root MSE = .87167
Adj R-squared = 0.1203
Residual 24.314142 32 .759816937 R-squared = 0.1470
Model 4.18891945 1 4.18891945 Prob > F = 0.0252
F( 1, 32) = 5.51
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 34
86
Table 27. Skewness/Kurtosis test
Regression analyses of the Ratings:
Table 28. The three agencies scales and the numbering of each level
Moody's S&P Fitch
Aaa 1 AAA 1 AAA 1
Aa1 2 AA+ 2 AA+ 2
Aa2 3 AA 3 AA 3
Aa3 4 AA- 4 AA- 4
A1 5 A+ 5 A+ 5
A2 6 A 6 A 6
A3 7 A- 7 A- 7
Baa1 8 BBB+ 8 BBB+ 8
Baa2 9 BBB 9 BBB 9
Baa3 10 BBB- 10 BBB- 10
Ba1 11 BB+ 11 BB+ 11
Ba2 12 BB 12 BB 12
Ba3 13 BB- 13 BB- 13
B1 14 B+ 14 B+ 14
B2 15 B 15 B 15
B3 16 B- 16 B- 16
Caa1 17 CCC+ 17 CCC+ 17
Caa2 18 CCC 18 CCC 18
Caa3 19 CCC- 19 CCC- 19
Ca 20 CC 20 CC 20
C 21 C 21 C 21
R 22 RD 22
SD 23 D 23
D 24
res 34 0.0749 0.6336 3.70 0.1574
Variable Obs Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
joint
Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
87
Table 29. Regression analysis of Greek bond spread to Moody’s credit rating
Table 30. Regression analysis of Greek bond spread to S&P’s credit rating
Table 31. Regression analysis of Greek bond spread to Fitch’s credit rating
_cons -.0670026 .1479056 -0.45 0.651 -.3570299 .2230247
M_rat .9361169 .0128218 73.01 0.000 .9109747 .9612591
S Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 142533.915 2552 55.8518475 Root MSE = 4.2526
Adj R-squared = 0.6762
Residual 46134.2555 2551 18.0847728 R-squared = 0.6763
Model 96399.6594 1 96399.6594 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 1, 2551) = 5330.43
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 2553
_cons -3.348497 .1446685 -23.15 0.000 -3.632177 -3.064818
SP_rat 1.25653 .013134 95.67 0.000 1.230776 1.282284
S Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 142533.915 2552 55.8518475 Root MSE = 3.4898
Adj R-squared = 0.7819
Residual 31067.4694 2551 12.1785455 R-squared = 0.7820
Model 111466.445 1 111466.445 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 1, 2551) = 9152.69
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 2553
.
_cons -3.318594 .1653387 -20.07 0.000 -3.642806 -2.994382
F_rat 1.311175 .0158157 82.90 0.000 1.280162 1.342188
S Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 142533.915 2552 55.8518475 Root MSE = 3.889
Adj R-squared = 0.7292
Residual 38582.8125 2551 15.1245835 R-squared = 0.7293
Model 103951.102 1 103951.102 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 1, 2551) = 6872.99
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 2553
88
Table 32. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spread to Moody’s credit rating
Table 33. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to S&P’s credit rating
_cons -505.7986 6.494425 -77.88 0.000 -518.5356 -493.0617
M_rat 115.9073 .8992148 128.90 0.000 114.1438 117.6709
CDS Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 303316337 1906 159137.637 Root MSE = 127.98
Adj R-squared = 0.8971
Residual 31200005.2 1905 16377.9555 R-squared = 0.8971
Model 272116332 1 272116332 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 1, 1905) =16614.79
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1907
_cons -708.3509 7.381468 -95.96 0.000 -722.8275 -693.8743
SP_rat 127.536 .9202776 138.58 0.000 125.7312 129.3409
CDS Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 303316337 1906 159137.637 Root MSE = 119.87
Adj R-squared = 0.9097
Residual 27370952 1905 14367.9538 R-squared = 0.9098
Model 275945385 1 275945385 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 1, 1905) =19205.61
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1907
89
Table 34. Regression analysis of Greek CDS spreads to Fitch’s credit rating
_cons -835.5324 8.835726 -94.56 0.000 -852.8611 -818.2037
F_rat 152.376 1.179829 129.15 0.000 150.0621 154.6899
CDS Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Total 303316337 1906 159137.637 Root MSE = 127.75
Adj R-squared = 0.8974
Residual 31090591.5 1905 16320.5205 R-squared = 0.8975
Model 272225745 1 272225745 Prob > F = 0.0000
F( 1, 1905) =16679.97
Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1907