the power of greater nashville - 1 - t&d planning at nashville electric service paul h. allen,...

T&D Planning at Nashville Electric Service

Paul H. Allen, Nashville Electric ServiceAPPA E&O Technical ConferenceMarch 9, 2004 - San Antonio, Texas

The Power Of Greater Nashville

BackgroundNashville Electric Service (NES) is the operating name for The Electric Power Board of the Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson CountyNES is governed by a five member board, appointed by the Mayor and confirmed by the CouncilThe Board Members serve 5 year terms, without pay, and have full responsibility for the operation of NESThe day-to-day responsibility is delegated to the President and CEO of NES


NES Statistics700 m2 Service territoryapprox. 328,000 Customers291,000 Residential 30,000 Small Commercial 6,700 Large C&I12,233,000 MWh sold in FY 200355.8% of revenue from C&I customers77.8% to purchase powerResidential - 6.545 / kWh; $6.01 customer charge


NES Statistics62 Major substations161 kV and 69kV transmission voltages23.9kV, 13.9kV and 4 kV distribution voltagesSecondary network system in downtownNo generation - 22 feed points from TVA

Went from winter peaking to summer peaking in mid 1990sSummer peak 2,474 MW August 2000Winter peak 2,441 MW December 1989


Issues in the PastPrior to 1992, a 5 year system plan was prepared that included a one year construction planThe plan was prepared internally and the plan was reviewed by an independent engineering consultant - similar to an external financial auditThe plan was redone every five years or when annual load growth exceeded 2.5%Increasing financial pressure resulted in some maintenance activities being scaled back in the late 1980s


Timeline of Events


Year

T&D Plan

Significant Events

1988

5 year Plan(internal)

Some maintenance activities had been scaled back

Rate Decrease

Computer planning tool in place but not fully utilized

1989

Management change

Significant public opposition to T-Line project

Rate Increase

1990

Approx. 10% of workforce retires (early)

Rate Decrease

1991

Construction budget scaled back

Timeline of Events


Year

T&D Plan

Significant Events

1992

First 20 year Plan (External)

1993

Management change

Joint city wide GIS effort dissolved

1994

Ice storm, 1/3 of customers affected, two week restoration

Fiber optic partnering started

1995

GIS, OMS effort began

Manual collection of reliability data

Rate Increase

Timeline of Events


Year

T&D Plan

Significant Events

1996

1997

20 Year Plan(internal and external)

Added contract labor resources

Rate increase

1998

Delayed T-Line started with Citizens Advisory Committee for routing process

Tornado in downtown, 1 week restoration

Timeline of Events


Year

T&D Plan

Significant Events

1999

2000

Management change

Reliability Initiative

New radio system in service

2001

EPRI Study - Asset Mgmt., Maintenance Mgmt.

Rate increase

2002

20 Year Plan (external)

Work Management Project started

Budget Prioritization Project started

2003

Rate increase

2004

Management change

Current EnvironmentPlanning Process - OverviewA 20 year comprehensive T&D plan is prepared at least every 5 years or when system demand reaches or exceeds 105% in the base year of the last studyResult - a new plan every 3 to 5 yearsAn external consultant is used on every other planAssures that process is state of the artProvides appropriate due diligence to Board and Executive ManagementInterim studies are performed (internally) between plans to determine if plan should be accelerated or slowed


Current Tool IntegrationOMS(CADOPS)GIS(ArcInfo)SCADA(ESCA)Distribution(Feederall)Transmission(PTI PSS/E)Forecast(Foresite)Reliability(Relinet)AVLCIS(Legacy)Common Data BaseSystemForecastVarious Inputs


Current EnvironmentPlanning Process - ForecastsSystem ForecastRolling 5 year trending method based on historical data - primarily the weather adjusted peakSufficiently accurate for 5 year periodHigh, medium, and low forecastsForecast changes from plan to plan are explainedSubstation ForecastArea load growth forecasts using software toolDetermines where the load growth is likely to occur


Current EnvironmentSubstation ForecastCreation of land use models from satellite imagery, zoning data, city planning data, etc. - one acre small areasMuch of information is from GIS systemsSmall areas are assigned to distribution substationsSystem forecast is spread to substations by software tool and substations loads are grown relative to each other based on small areasUsed to identify capacity needs, inputs for transmission load flow studies, and to determine loads on distribution feeders


Land Use Model - Downtown


Southwest Area Growth - 2020


Current EnvironmentPlanning Process - Contingency AnalysisTransmissionN-1 planning criteria using software tool using inputs from forecastsIdentify multiple solutionsShort list of solutions developed (costs developed)DistributionExtract distribution model from OMS systemIdentification of loading and voltage problems and potential solutions using software toolIdentification of reliability solutions for worst circuits using software tool


Current EnvironmentPlanning Process - Project IdentificationImpact analysis - external factors that could affect the solution - property, schedules, public, etc.Selection of solution and identification of needed projects for the selected solutionPrioritization of projects for selected solution - order of constructionSchedule leveling of projects for selected solution - dollars and resources


Current EnvironmentBudget Process5 year financial model used to forecast net incomeKey financial goalsCash reserve, debt coverage, leverage goalCapital budget developed from T&D plan, forecasted new business, other infrastructure projects, and equipment/facilitiesCurrent prioritization is by senior management team and stakeholders Iterative Process - capital expenditures affect financial goals - pressure to limit expenditures


Financial Model


FORECASTED FUNDS AVAILABLE FOR DEBT SERVICE AND CONSTRUCTION

BUDGET

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

NET INCOME

$14,579,407

$8,526,784

$10,754,427

$5,708,525

$1,461,450

ADJUSTMENTS:

DEPRECIATION

31,500,000

32,760,000

34,070,400

35,433,216

36,850,545

INTEREST EXPENSE

19,939000

25,759,423

25,027,694

24,363,456

23,654,398

EXISTING BOND PROCEEDS

27,159,040

0

0

0

0

NEW BONDS

0

35,000,000

33,000,000

32,000,000

0

TOTAL AVAILABLE FOR DEBT SERVICE,CONSTRUCTION, & WORKING CAPITAL

$93,177,447

$102,046,207

$102,852,520

$97,505,197

$61,966,393

REQUIREMENTS:

DEBT SERVICE

31,999,268

37,997,369

37,998,008

37,998,119

37,999,731

CONSTRUCTION & REMOVAL COSTS

52,573,207

60,000,000

60,000,000

60,000,000

60,000,000

TOTAL REQUIREMENTS

84,572,475

97,997,369

97,998,008

97,998,119

97,999,731

NET CHANGE IN CASH

$8,604,972

$4,048,838

$4,854,512

($492,922)

($36,033,338)

ENDING CASH

$49,350,888

$53,399,726

$58,254,239

$57,761,317

$21,727,979

CASH REQUIREMENT(7% OF O & M and Taxes)

$51,472,151

$53,266,854

$54,005,834

$55,037,698

$56,093,910

EXCESS OR DEFICIENCY FROM CASH GOAL

(2,121,262)

132,872

4,248,405

2,723,619

(34,365,931)

DEBT COVERAGE RATIO

2.70

2.32

2.42

2.33

2.26

DEBT COVERAGE RATIO GOAL

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

PERCENT OF CONSTRUCTION(ANNUAL)

52%

58%

55%

53%

0%

Current EnvironmentPlans have been and will always be at risk for delay for many reasons - financial, public pressure, major equipment failures, weather, etc.Its our experience that when plans are delayed beyond a reasonable timeframe, the cost of providing safe, reliable service dramatically increases, the solutions required to provide that service may not optimal, and there is increased risk to the reliability of the electric systemThis is a constant pressure on the planning process


Capital Expenditures


ActualHistory

11106741.316207376.0712017544.942559476.67

11779592.495918540.9712520768.323145293.07

11103578.496777193.79996247.235108037.87

9501291.9119482343.9611155855.586287554.1

7738000774100078080004546000

6516000902600091230002241000

69170004004000101530003727000

475000032240008388000992000

4931000319900086300002458000

63150006986000131540006165000

89420004580000138940007715000

102940007491000168700009239000

103730009413000210970008447000

1131400010684000139340005144000

15092000134970001850700010410000

14878875208245832106462111732000

11244000255250001865700010016000

1127500026499000187150009104000

12179672.5125874649.5120470803.2514935395.48

1263664016234361184416595260547

1316715326361988205704247940850

1367725327307275213932328371600

1417296025882550217408598723600

1453789627169681218732387646100

New Business

System Construction

Other Construction

Equipment & Facilities

Construction Program - Actual Expenditures

ActualAdjusted

15149984.85706148467078.7621491216392352.96640353491215.98407895

15997612.50825338037843.8500873417004187.54375554271555.21733624

14948973.63805199124273.7692640713458151.03259746877055.31415584

12574050.144723425783016.900255314763706.74629798320975.85148936

9549674.60317469553376.984126999636063.492063495610341.26984127

7824231.6602316610838169.884169910954644.78764482690930.5019305

8210637.404580154752839.6946564912051843.51145044424034.35114504

5659961.685823763841624.52107289994896.551724141182038.31417625

5638018.382352943657680.147058829867389.705882352810433.82352941

7167755.474452567929364.9635036514930270.07299276997500

9723643.356643364980349.6503496515108510.48951058389388.11188811

10926395.90443697951197.9522184317906382.25255979806583.61774744

11240428.571428610200149.82578422861209.05923349153369.33797909

11807563.758389311150080.536912814541859.06040275368402.68456376

15645373.3333333139918901918559010791700

15476020.484949821660352.217391321910023.849498312202849.4983278

11244000255250001865700010016000

10992241.379310325834448.275862118245658.307218875686.52037618

11619258.130705524684098.152177919528895.12514248184.0315337

1263664016234361184416595260547

New Business

System Construction

Other Construction

Equipment & Facilities

Construction Program2004 Dollars

Data

History plus ProjectionsHandy Whitman Adusted to 2001 dollars

New BusinessSystem ConstructionOther ConstructionEquipment & FacilitiesTotalHandy WhitmanNew BusinessSystem ConstructionOther ConstructionEquipment & FacilitiesTotal

1.FY 1985$11,106,741$6,207,376$12,017,545$2,559,477$31,891,139228$15,149,985$8,467,079$16,392,353$3,491,216$43,500,633

2.FY 1986$11,779,592$5,918,541$12,520,768$3,145,293$33,364,195229$15,997,613$8,037,844$17,004,188$4,271,555$45,311,199

3.FY 1987$11,103,578$6,777,194$9,996,247$5,108,038$32,985,057231$14,948,974$9,124,274$13,458,151$6,877,055$44,408,454

4.FY 1988$9,501,292$19,482,344$11,155,856$6,287,554$46,427,046235$12,574,050$25,783,017$14,763,707$8,320,976$61,441,750

5.FY 1989$7,738,000$7,741,000$7,808,000$4,546,000$27,833,000252$9,549,675$9,553,377$9,636,063$5,610,341$34,349,456

6.FY 1990$6,516,000$9,026,000$9,123,000$2,241,000$26,906,000259$7,824,232$10,838,170$10,954,645$2,690,931$32,307,977

7.FY 1991$6,917,000$4,004,000$10,153,000$3,727,000$24,801,000262$8,210,637$4,752,840$12,051,844$4,424,034$29,439,355

8.FY 1992$4,750,000$3,224,000$8,388,000$992,000$17,354,000261$5,659,962$3,841,625$9,994,897$1,182,038$20,678,521

9.FY 1993$4,931,000$3,199,000$8,630,000$2,458,000$19,218,000272$5,638,018$3,657,680$9,867,390$2,810,434$21,973,522

10.FY 1994$6,315,000$6,986,000$13,154,000$6,165,000$32,620,000274$7,167,755$7,929,365$14,930,270$6,997,500$37,024,891

11.FY 1995$8,942,000$4,580,000$13,894,000$7,715,000$35,131,000286$9,723,643$4,980,350$15,108,510$8,389,388$38,201,892

12.FY 1996$10,294,000$7,491,000$16,870,000$9,239,000$43,894,000293$10,926,396$7,951,198$17,906,382$9,806,584$46,590,560

13.FY 1997$10,373,000$9,413,000$21,097,000$8,447,000$49,330,000287$11,240,429$10,200,150$22,861,209$9,153,369$53,455,157

14.FY 1998$11,314,000$10,684,000$13,934,000$5,144,000$41,076,000298$11,807,564$11,150,081$14,541,859$5,368,403$42,867,906

15.FY 1999$15,092,000$13,497,000$18,507,000$10,410,000$57,506,000300$15,645,373$13,991,890$19,185,590$10,791,700$59,614,553

16.FY 2000$14,878,875$20,824,583$21,064,621$11,732,000$68,500,079299$15,476,020$21,660,352$21,910,024$12,202,849$71,249,246

17.FY 2001$11,244,000$25,525,000$18,657,000$10,016,000$65,442,000311$11,244,000$25,525,000$18,657,000$10,016,000$65,442,000

18.FY 2002$11,275,000$26,499,000$18,715,000$9,104,000$65,593,000319$10,992,241$25,834,448$18,245,658$8,875,687$63,948,034

19.FY 2003$12,179,673$25,874,650$20,470,803$14,935,395$73,460,521326$11,619,258$24,684,098$19,528,895$14,248,184$70,080,435

20.FY 2004 Budg$12,636,640$16,234,361$18,441,659$5,260,547$52,573,207$12,636,640$16,234,361$18,441,659$5,260,547$52,573,207

21.FY 2005 proj$13,167,153$26,361,988$20,570,424$7,940,850$68,040,415

22.FY 2006 Proj$13,677,253$27,307,275$21,393,232$8,371,600$70,749,360

23.FY 2007 Proj$14,172,960$25,882,550$21,740,859$8,723,600$70,519,969

24.FY 2008 Proj$14,537,896$27,169,681$21,873,238$7,646,100$71,226,915

25.

20 yr Average$9,944,370$11,659,402$14,229,875$6,461,615$42,295,262

10 yr Average$11,822,919$16,062,259$18,165,108$9,200,294$55,250,581

5 yr Average$12,442,838$22,991,519$19,469,817$10,209,588$65,113,761

FY 1985-1993$74,343,204$65,579,455$89,792,416$31,064,362$260,779,437Average$11,104,960$10,103,830$15,248,475$6,612,022$43,991,592

FY 1994-2003$111,907,548$151,374,233$176,363,424$92,907,395$532,552,600

FY 2002-2006$62,935,719$122,277,274$99,591,118$45,612,392$330,416,503$9,204,149

Total$249,186,470$339,230,961$365,746,959$169,584,150$1,123,748,539

Data

0

0

0

0

FY 1994-2001

PHAHandy Whitmand Index 1/1/2001 South AtlanticTotal Distribution PlantJan 1 or entire Year1973 = 100

Current Gaps - PrioritizationCurrent process is perceived to be unreliableIn March 2003, began implementation of the EPRI Project Prioritization toolGoals:Model All Distribution Capital and O&M ProjectsValue projects using multiple attributes and Common ScaleDetermine measurements and weightsInitial Model Spring 2004 - T&D Projects onlyEnd result -> prioritized project list by value


Project Prioritization


_1137236387.doc

Current Gaps - Work Mgmt.Mainframe legacy system installed in 1989Purchased integrated system in 2002 (Mincom)Work Management, Finance, Supply ChainExternal consultant facilitated Best Practice process definitionsPlanned Go-Live is July 1, 2004Goals:Enable one view of all workImprove ability to prioritize and manage workImprove project management Reduce overall cycle time for work lifecycleProvide accurate tools for estimation and designEnsure that resources are at the right place at the right time


Work Management


Current Gaps - Asset Mgmt.No existing system or formal processEPRI recommendationProcess consultant recommendationNew work management system will provide necessary data and support system (Equipment Register)


Current Gaps - Asset Mgmt.Manage the AssetsMaintenancePlanningBudgetingConstructionPlanningStandardsOther WorkPlanningSystemPlanning


Current Gaps - Asset Mgmt.


Current Gaps - Asset Mgmt.Goals:Improve information on health of assetsImprove ability to compare and prioritize capital workImprove project management Develop consistent maintenance programsImprove linkage between budgeted projects and actual work performedBenefits realizationImproving quality of asset dataCoordination of repair/replace decisionsImprove short and long term budgetingImprove standards and estimating process


The FutureWe striving for...More integration of and proficiency with tools and systemsMore public involvement in the planning processMore accurate SCADA and OMS dataMore real time integration with SCADAUse of the Equipment Register to capture costs and operating statistics by circuit and equipmentBetter communication of the benefits and risks of proper T&D planning and construction to all of our stakeholders


Future Integration PlansOMS(CADOPS)GISSCADADistributionPlanningTransmissionPlanningSubstationForecastReliabilityPlanningSystemAutomationCISCommon Data BaseSystemForecastVarious InputsMobile Data/AVLOther Operational ApplicationsEquipmentRegister


Thank You!


the power of greater nashville - 1 - t&d planning at nashville electric service paul h. allen,...

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