the presidential contest: early soundings from key · pdf filethe presidential contest: early...

Volume 8, Issue 4 • April 2012A M O N T H L Y P O L L C O M P I L A T I O N

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

The Presidential Contest: Early Soundings from Key StatesIn early April, Gallup and USA Today released results from their fifth wave of interviewing in twelve swing states. Self-identified registered voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina,Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin preferred Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 51 to 42 percent. The prefer-ences of Republicans and Democrats have been stable, so the movement is due to independents changing preferences.Independents in these states preferred Obama over Romney by 48 to 39 percent. At about the same time, Quinnipiac Uni-versity released results from three key swing states, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Both polls showed President Obamamaking gains. A March survey of independents by GlobalStrategyGroup for Third Way found independents in battle-ground states preferring Obama over Romney by 44 to 38 percent.

Q: Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for: Barack Obama, the Democrat, or Mitt Romney, the Republican?

Note: Gallup defined key swing states as: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio,Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Source: Gallup/USA Today, latest that of March 2012.

Q: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and MittRomney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

————Florida———— ————Ohio———— ———Pennsylvania———Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama

March 2012 42% 49% 41% 47% 42% 45%Dec. 2011 45 42 43 42 43 46Nov. 2011 45 42 42 45 43 44

Source: Quinnipiac University, latest that of March 2012.

46%43%

47% 46%

51%47% 48% 48% 48%

42%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

Obama

Romney

Nationally, Obama led Romney by 49 to 45 percent.

Preferences if presidential election were held today, Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney in key swing states

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 2

Earth Day, 2012The environment became a core value for most Americans in the late 1960s. Today as we mark the 42nd Earth Day, manysurvey organizations regularly ask questions about the environment and the country’s energy needs. While Americanswant to and believe we can protect the environment and develop energy supplies, at different times—depending largelyon economic conditions—they give one or the other priority. Today, concerns about the development of energy suppliesare paramount. There is no evidence that Americans’ commitment to having a clean and healthful environment haswaned. The issue seems less urgent than in the past.

Q: With which one of these statements about the environment and energy production do you most agree? Protectionof the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of limiting the amount of energy supplies—such as oil, gas,and coal, which the United States produces; or development of U.S. energy supplies such as oil, gas, and coal—shouldbe given priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent?

Source: Gallup, latest that of March 2012.

Q: Next, I’m going to ready a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you . . .


44%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Priority should be given to the environment

To energy development

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec

-02

Jul-0

3

Feb-

04

Sep-

04

Apr

-05

Nov

-05

Jun-

06

Jan-

07

Aug

-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec

-09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Personally worry about this a great deal

The economy 71%Gas prices 65Federal spending and budget deficit 60The availability and affordability of health care 60Unemployment 55The Social Security system 48The availability and affordability of energy 48

The size of power of the federal government 46Hunger and homelessness 44Crime and violence 42Drug use 42The quality of the environment 37The possibility of future terrorist attacks in the U.S. 35Illegal immigration 34Race relations 17

The Energy Situation Today

Q: Has the . . . ?

Higher cost of _______ has put a great deal of strain on your family budget

Note: Fifty percent said that higher cost of gasoline has put a “moderate” amount of strain on their family budget. Fifty-three percent in thenext question in the poll said they had changed their driving habits because of high gasoline prices; 46 percent said they had not. In a lateMarch CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, 71 percent said recent price increases in gasoline have caused hardship for them and theirhouseholds.Source: Marist/McClatchy, March 2012.

Q: Thinking about some specific aspects of the nation’s economy, please tell me if you are . . . ?

Gas prices The economy

Hearing mostly good news about 2% 11%Mostly bad news 85 24A mix of good and bad news 12 62

Source: Pew Research Center, March 2012.

Q: Do you think . . . ?———————Obama is doing a good job handling———————

Protecting the Improving the nation’snation’s environment energy policy

March 2012 56% 42%March 2011 55 41March 2010 52 43


Q: Do you . . . ?

Approve of the job President Obama is doing handling

The situation with gas prices 26%

Energy policy 38

Source: ABC/Washington Post, March 2012.

Q: Who do you blame for the recent rise in oil and gasoline prices . . .?

Other oil producing countries 25%U.S. oil companies 28Obama administration 21

Source: ABC/Washington Post, April 2012.


Q: How serious would you say . . . ?

The energy situation in the U.S. is very serious today 42%

Fairly serious 49Not at all serious 7

Source: Gallup, March 2012.

Q: Do you think that the . . . ?

U.S. is likely to face a critical energy shortage during the next five years 50%

Is not 46


Gasoline 37%Food at the supermarket 20

Health care 19Your mortgage or rent 12

What Can a President Do?Q: Do you think there’s anything the Obama administration reasonably can do to reduce gasoline prices, or do youthink gas prices have risen because of factors beyond the administration’s control?

There are things the Obama administration reasonably can do to reduce gasoline prices 50%

Gasoline prices have risen because of factors beyond the administration’s control 45

Source: ABC/Washington Post, March 2012.


Key Questions on Keystone Q: From what you know and have read, do you think . . . ?

The U.S. government should approvethe building of this pipeline 57%

Should not 29

Note: Twenty percent of those surveyed said they were following news of the Keystone pipeline very closely. Seventy-eight percent of thisgroup supported building it.Source: Gallup, March 2012.

Q: A proposed oil pipeline known as Keystone XL would transport oil from Canada to refineries in the United States.Supporters of the pipeline say it would bring needed oil to the U.S., lowering gasoline costs and creating jobs. Oppo-nents of the pipeline have environmental concerns, including the risk of a spill, and also say the pipeline would increaseAmerican dependence on oil. What about you—do you think . . . ?

The Keystone pipeline should be built 67%Would not built it 25

Source: Fox News, February 2012.

Q: Supporters of the proposed Keystone oil pipeline to carry oil from Canada to the United States say it will easeAmerica’s dependence on Mideast oil and create jobs. Opponents fear the environmental impact of building a pipeline.What about you, do you . . . ?

Support building the Keystone pipeline 64%Oppose 23

Source: Quinnipiac, February 2012.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor;Andrew Rugg, Editor. Intern: Wylie Galvin,Christina Vachon, Tom Weingartner, Min Yoo.


All of the Above? Our Energy FuturesAlthough the President gets poor marks on handling the energy situation and gas prices, the public embraces what hedescribes as an “all-of-the-above” comprehensive approach. Americans favor the use of nuclear power as an energysource, but it ranks lower in Pew’s list of other possible government policies to address America’s energy needs. Offshoredrilling, alternative energy, and mass transit are much more popular. When asked if the United States should emphasizeconservation or production to solve our energy problems, a majority told Gallup pollsters that they prefer conservation.

Q: Overall, do you . . . ?

March 2012 March 2011 March 2010Favor use of nuclear energy

as one of the ways to provide electricity for the U.S. 57% 57% 62%

Oppose 40 38 33


Q: As I read some possible government policies to address America’s energy supply, tell me whether you would favor oroppose each.

Source: Pew, March 2012.

Men and women differ sharply on using nuclear power and on its safety. In the 2012 Gallup survey, 72 percentof men and 42 percent of women said they favored its use. Seventy-two percent of men in another question inthe poll said it was safe; only 43 percent of women did.

44%

65% 69% 65%

78%

46%49%

31% 26%31%

19%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90FavorOppose

Prom

otin

g th

ein

crea

sed

use

ofnu

clea

r pow

er

Allo

win

g m

ore

offs

hore

oil

and

gas

drill

ing

in U

S w

ater

s

Incr

easi

ng fe

dera

lfu

ndin

g fo

r res

earc

hon

win

d, s

olar

, and

hydr

ogen

tech

nolo

gy

Spen

ding

mor

e on

subw

ay, r

ail,

and

bus

sys

tem

s

Req

uirin

g be

tter f

uel

effic

ienc

y fo

r veh

icle

s

Giv

ing

tax

cuts

toen

ergy

com

pani

es fo

roi

l and

gas

exp

lora

tion

(continued on the next page)


Q: Which of the following approaches to solving the nation’s energy problems do you think the U.S. should follow rightnow—emphasize production of more oil, gas, and oil supplies or emphasize more conservation by consumers of exist-ing energy supplies?


Q: Which do you think is more likely to produce a great number of jobs for Americans?

Focusing more on increasing domestic production of oil and gas 40%

Focusing more on alternative energy and efficiency 48

Source: United Technologies/National Journal, March 2012.

(continued from the previous page)

More production40%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%More conservation to solve the nation’s energy problems

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

U.S. should emphasize

About the WeatherQ: Next, I’d like you think about the weather in your local area this winter season compared to past winters. Have tem-peratures in your local area been . . . ? Q: If warmer, do you think temperatures are warmer mainly due to . . . ?

Colder than usual 4%About the same 16Warmer than usual 79

(Due to global warming) (30)(Due to normal variations) (46)



Steady and Polarized: Attitudes on Global WarmingQ: Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen . . . ?

Note: Category “at a future time” combines the response of those who said “within a few years,” “within your lifetime,” and “not withinyour lifetime but they will affect future generations.”Source: Gallup, latest that of March 2012.

Q: Thinking about what is said in the news, in your view is the . . . ?

Seriousness of global warming is exaggerated 42%Underestimated 31Correct 24

Note: Sixty-seven percent of Republicans, 20 percent of Democrats, and 42 percent of independents said the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated. Source: Gallup, March 2012.

Q: Just your impression, which one of the following statements do you think is most accurate . . . ?Q: Thinking about what is said in the news, in your view is the seriousness of global warming . . . ?Q: And from what you have heard or read, do you believe increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century aredue more to . . . ?Q: Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen . . . ?

National ————Responses of————Accurate that/Agree adults Rep. Ind. Dem.

Most scientists believe global warming is occurring 58% 43% 56% 75%News reports of seriousness are correct/underestimated 55 31 55 76Global warming mainly caused by human activities 53 36 55 65Effects of global warming have already begun to happen 52 40 51 65

Note: Selected responses shown.Source: Gallup, March 2012.

52%

29%

15%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Already begun

At a future time

Will never happen

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Opinion about when the effects of global warming will begin to happen


Young People and the Environment

A new study in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology examines generational differences in young adults’ goals.The authors say that “saving the environment, an area purported to be of particular concern to Millennials, insteadshowed one of the largest declines [from previous generations].” Two of the trends the authors examined are reproducedbelow. On the surface, they would suggest a reduced commitment. But another interpretation of the data is that youngpeople are more satisfied than earlier generations with environmental progress and therefore less likely to express concernabout environmental activism in polls.

Q: Please indicate the importance to you personally of each of the following . . . ?

Source: Higher Education Research Institute/UCLA, latest that of 2011.

Source: Higher Education Research Institute/UCLA, latest that of 2011.

26%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Considered essential or very important

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

78%

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Agree strongly or agree somewhat

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

College freshmen: becoming involved in programs to clean up the environment

College freshmen: the federal government is not doing enough to control environmental pollution

(continued on the next page)


Q: Thinking about national issues for a moment, which issue . . . ?

18–29 Students in 4-year colleges

The economy concerns me the most 74% 70%Health care 5 4National security 2 3Environment 2 4

Source: Harvard Institute of Politics, November–December, 2011.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Q: Which one of these statements about environment do you most agree . . . ? Q: How much do you personally worry about global warming . . .?

18–29 NationalGlobal warming will pose a serious threat

to you and your way of life in your lifetime 46% 38%

Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economy growth 53 41

Personally worry a great deal about global warming 35 30Source: Gallup, March 2012.


The United States and the WorldOver the past decade, Amer-icans have grown dissatis-fied with the position of theUnited States in the world.In May 2000, 65 percentwere satisfied. Now only 36 percent are. A majoritytoday see China as theworld’s leading economicpower, not the UnitedStates. Back in 1989, 58 per-cent thought Japan was theworld’s leading economicpower.

Q: On the whole, wouldyou say that you are . . . ?

Source: Gallup, latest that ofFebruary 2012.

Satisfied

36%Dissatisfied

64%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Satisfied or dissatisfied with the position of the United States in the world today

(continued on the next page)(continued on the next page)


Q: Which one of the following do you think is the leading economic power in the world today . . . ? (Gallup, 2012 and 2000)Q: Today, which one of the following do you think is the world’s leading economic power? (Gallup/Times Mirror, 1989)

Leading economic powerFeb. 2012 May 2000 Feb. 1989

China 53% 10% NAUnited States 33 65% 29%Japan 7 16 58EU 3 4 4India 2 - NARussia - 2 2

Note: In1989, the question asked the Soviet Union and the European Common Market.Source: Gallup, 2000 and 2012. Gallup/Times Mirror, 1989.

The Enemies ListQ: What one country anywhere in the world do you . . . ?

Consider to be the United States’ greatest enemy today

Iran 32%China 23North Korea/Korea 10Afghanistan 7Iraq 5Russia 2Pakistan 2

Source: Gallup, February 2012.

Leading from behind?

Q: Next we would like you to think about the role the U.S. should play in trying to solve international problems. Do youthink the U.S. should . . . ?

2012 2001U.S. should take a leading role

in world affairs 19% 16%Take a major role, but not leading role 52 57Take a minor role 24 21Take no role at all in world affairs 3 4

Source: Gallup, February 2012.

Q: Which comes closer to your point of view? As a general rule, do you . . . ?

Think the United States should be ready and willing to use military force around the world 46%

The United States should be very reluctant to use military force 53

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, November 2011.


the presidential contest: early soundings from key · pdf filethe presidential contest: early...

Documents